PERT / CPM

by
Prof. Richard B. Goldstein

PERT Program Evaluation &

Review Technique

CPM Critical Path Method

 A Simple Project
Activity Immediate Expected
Predecessor Time
A - 5
B - 6
C A 4
D A, B 2
Project Network
Activity Immediate Expected
Predecessor Time
A - 5
B - 6
C A 4
D A, B 2
ES Earliest Starting (time)
EF Earliest Finishing
LS Latest Starting
LF Latest Finishing
Slack Extra Time
Earliest Starting/Finishing Times

EF = ES + t
LS = LF - t
What if activity times are variable?

a optimistic time
m most likely time
b pessimistic time
t = E(T) expected time = (a + 4m + b)/6
V(T) variance = (b - a)2/36
 Activity Time
Expected Value and Variance

a m b t V(T)
A 4 5 6 5 4/36
B 4 5 12 6 64/36
C 1 4 7 4 36/36
D 1 2 3 2 4/36
Possible Paths and Statistics
Path E(T) = t V(T)

A-C 9* 40/36

A-D 7 8/36

B-D 8 68/36
• What is the probability that
the project takes at least
10 days?
• What is the probability that
the project takes less than
7 days?
  10  9 
P (t  10 )  P  z    P ( z  0 . 9 5 )  0 . 5  0 . 3 2 8 9  0 .1 7 1 1
 40 / 36 
  7  9 
P (t  7 )  P  z    P ( z   1.9 0 )  0 .5  0 .4 7 1 3  0 .0 2 8 7
 40 / 36 