QM Assignment : Sales Forecasting for a Dairy

The following data refers to the sales of milk in litres of a dairy. The data is real
and is collected during April 2004. The problem here is to forecast the sales for
the next financial year for 12 months.

Questions:

1. Give the time series graph of the Sales data. From the time series graph
what are the time series components you feel, is affecting the sales of milk
for the give period?

2. Deseasonalise the sales data by using 12 month centred moving average.

3. Develop a trend model adjusted for seasonal fluctuations. Using this

seasonally adjusted trend model, forecast the sales for the next 12
months.

Year Month Sales (Litres)

2000 April 22377.500
May 22960.000
June 20827.000
July 20538.000
August 20859.000
September 21154.000
October 21207.000
November 21925.000
December 23143.000
2001 January 23781.000
February 23906.000
March 23891.000
April 25796.000
May 24441.000
June 22871.000
July 22870.000
August 23404.000
September 23578.000
October 23770.000
November 25222.000
December 26439.000
2002 January 27470.000
February 28151.000
March 28217.000
April 29781.000
May 29684.000
June 26553.500
July 26029.000
August 26103.000
September 26665.500
October 26785.000
 November 27838.000
December 28352.000
2003 January 28055.500
February 29102.500
March 29188.000
April 31499.500
May 31983.000
June 28387.000
July 27234.000
August 26770.000
September 27211.500
October 27071.500
November 28135.500
December 28259.500
January 28239.500
February 29080.000
March 29578.000
April 31489.500
May 33297.000
June 30575.500
July 29427.500
August 29624.500
September 30318.000
October 30854.000
November 31870.000
December 31797.000
2004 January 31319.500
February 31945.000
March 32529.000

Guidelines for submission of forecasting assignment:

• The assignment can be submitted in hand written or computer typed format.

• First page of the assignment should give the title as “Business Forecasting
Assignment”. Below the title, you should write your name along with the roll no. Also
mention the Section on the first page.

• You can perform all the necessary computations in an Excel sheet and submit the same.

Submission Details:

• Last date of submission: Sunday – 5th December

• Kindly hand over the hard copy of the Assignment solution to the centre coordinator.

• Do not submit the soft copy of the solution through Email.

• This is an INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT only.