CHAPTER 2 2.5 2.6 27 2.8 2.10 241 2.12 2.13 (a) PLAT = PE(An B) u (An BY] = P(A B) + P(A BY) & P(A 9 BD {b) AUB = (AmB) U (AmB) U (AIA B) = Au (a'r BD P(A u B) = P(A) + P(AT AB) & PCA) P(A) = P(A 9 B) = (a+b) ae d= PLAN) P(A) - P(B) + P(A B) = (at b+c+d) - (a+b) - (asec) tard 1 = P(AY 9 BY) PE(A 0B!) u (An BY] = b+ C= (a+b) + (24 6) - 28 = P(A) + P(B) - 2°(A0.B) Refer to Figure 2.9 (a) P(A) + P(B) - P(A B) 20 + P(A 7B) < P(A) + P(B) (b) P(A) + P(B) - P(A B) 1 P(A mB) 2 P(A) + P(B) - 2 Refer to Figure 2.10 P(A)=1 + e=c=f=0 p(B) = 1 + d= f=g=0 pc)= 1 + beeng=0 Therefore P(A) =atb+d+gra=1 OED P(A UB) = P(A) + P(AY 9 B) = P(A) + P(AT AB) + P(A B) ~ P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) = P(A 78) OED P(A) + P(B) + PLC) - P(A mB) - P(A AC) - PBC) + (AB NC) = (atbed+g) +(atbecre)s (aterdef) - (a+b) = (ad) -(atc)earasbecedrerfes = P(A BuC ud) P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + PCD) = P(A 9.8) - P(A 2C) - P(A 7D) ~ PBC) = p(B) - P(E AD) + (ANB nC) + P(A BD) + P(A) + P(E ACAD) - (AN BCA D) e(@ededegetsisltope(aedsceesieitksm s(aecedeTaiekelene(@edecedrertegen) ~(a+beits)-(atdeiel)- (arbres) a (acai ak) -(asbaceey-(atcrdety + (ati) + (asd (asae(arara wasbecedterfegehsteiekel+menso = P(Au BUC UD)ket 214 P(Exu Ezu sss u Ey Eggi) = £ PCE,) + PCE Kaa) = A PCE) for k = 1 P(Es) = 2 P(E;) = PEs) ED fo 2.15 phg= §, pbs a- ap, pas pb =a, pl 2s (2) Postulate 1 P(A) = gpg 20 (0) Postuiate 2 P(A) = z35, PLAY) aes P(A) + (AY) e Spe hg 1 = POS) 2.17 (ay Prats) = PG GLBD 2 os (0) P(BIB) = = PG oD BBE = (c) P(A: u As U ..-1B) = = Pine Aeeess) 0B] PUA 0B), Pik B) + oe = P(Aa[B) + P(Az|B) + ++ 2.18 For example (a) If P(A 9B) = P(An BY) = P(A' A B) Pia at) « Eso that pcpla) = 3, P(BlAt) = 3, and (BIA) + P(BIA) = 1 Sb) TF P(A B) = P(A B') = (AY BD 5 % s and P(A‘ BY) = E pcela) = 3, (BIA) = 3, and 2 P(BIA) + PBIAY) = & 2.19 P(AN BACH D) = PAN BA C)P(DIAN BC) = P(A 9 B)P(CIA 0 B)P(DIA 1 B nC) = PCA)P(BIA)P(CIA 71 B)P(DIA 1 B ny C) + P(AIB ac) = PAIS)221 2.22 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 peatay = PAE BD = Peay = Puy = PCA) = PCAIB) = PCA) (a) P(B) = P(A B) + P(A’ B) = P(A)P(B) + P(A' 0B) P(A‘ mB) = P(B) - P(A)P(B) = P(B)E(1 - P(A)] = P(B)P(A') QED (b) P(BY) = P(An B*) + P(A' 9 Bt) (AY 9 BY) + P(B')P(A) P(A‘ Bt) = P(B') - P(B*)P(AIB*) = P{B')E2 - P(A)] = P(B')P(A‘) QED Assume that A and 8* are independent and show that this leads to contradiction. P(A) = P(A B) + P(A 9B!) = P(A B) + PA)P(B") (An B) = P(A) ~ P(A)P(B) = P(A)EL - P(B*)] = P(A)P(B) and A and Bare independent P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.80, P(C) = 0.50, P(A B) = 0.48, P(A nC) = 0.30 P(Bn C) = 0.38, P(A BAC) = 0.24 P(An B nC) = 0.24, P(A)P(B)P(C) = (0.6)(048) (0-5) = 0.24 P(B nC) = 0.38, P(B)P(C) = (0-8)(0.5) = 0.40 B and C not independent Refer to 2.21 P(A B) = 0.48, P(A)P(B) = (0.6)(0.8) = 0.48 A and B independent P(A nC) = 0.30, P(A)P(C) = (0.6)(0.5) = 0.30 A and C independent P(B mC) = 0.38, P(B)P(C) = (0.8)(0.5) = 0.40 B and C not independent (Refer to 2.21 and 2.22) Already showed that A and B independent, ‘A and C independent PL(An (B UC)] = 0.54, P(A) = 0.60, P(B UC) = 0.92, (0.6)(0-92) = 0.552 # 0.54 (a) PLA 9 (B 9 C)] = P(A B nC) = PCA)P(B)P(C) = (b) PLA 9 (Bu C)] = PL(A 9B) u (A nC)] = P(A nB) # P(A nC) - P(An BC) (AYP(B AC) QED = P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(C) ~ P(A)P(B)P(C) = PCAYEP(B) + P(C) - P(B OC) = P(A)P(BUC) QEDPUD B) P(B) < P(B) > P(BIA)< P(B) QED. 2.28 P(AIB)< P(A) > P(AN B) P(A) < P(A) > P(AIB)< PA)- P(B) 2.29 Proof by induction: Ifn= 2, then P(A, 4g) = P(A)) + PCA2)~ P(A): PCA) and 1-[1- P(A) {1 P(A)}= 1-14 P(A) P(A) ~ PCADPCAD- Assuming PAU Ay UU Ay)=1~[1= PCA) PAY = Ol= PCA» we can write PAU ALU oe AU Anat) = PUY 420 on) An) + PAnet) = PAU ALU om Ay) Ansa) = PU Ay aU Ay): L1~ PlApe It PApet) = {1 [PEAY PMT = PAID LL PUA D+ PAu) = 1=[PCApg 1) + Pa 1+ = PADD PEAY oe L= Pn D1 QED 2.30 Two at time (5) Three at time (*) k at time (K) eee ee --2 231 P(A @)= P(A)- P@|A)= P(A)- PCO), Since P(BLA)= P(2)= 0. 2.32 Since BU B,U ...U By = S, AN (B,U Byv ..U By)= A. Thus, by the associative law, (Am B,)U (AP Ba)U (A By) = A, and P(A) = P(B,)P(ALB,)+ PCB) P{A|Ba) + «+ P(Bg)P(A|Bg) QED 2.33 The probability of no matches on any given tralis “+; since the trials are independent, the probability of no match in n trials is n trials is ay -a-b" 2.34 P(AUB) = P(A)+ P(B)— P(AN B)=[1- P(A] + [1 PCB) PCAOB) — P(A’) — P(B')+[1- P(ANB)]- Since 1- P(A B)>0, P(AUB)<1- P(A')— P(B') QED 2-35 (a) {6, 8, 9]5 (0) {8}s (ec) [1, 2, 3, 4 5, Bhs (a) f1, 53s (e) £2, 4, 8}; (Ff)2.36 2.37 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.42 2.43 2.44 2.45 (a) Los Angeles, Long Beach, Pasadena, Anaheim, Santa Maria, Westwood: (b) San Diego, Long Beach, Pasadena, Anaheim, Santa Harta, Westwood: (c) Santa Barbara; (4) @; (e) San Diego, Long Beach, Santa Barbara, Anaheim; (f) San Diego, Santa Barbara, Long Beach; (g) Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, Anaheim; (h) Los Angeles, Pasadena, Santa Maria, Westwood; (1) Los Angeles, Pasadena, Santa Maria, Westwood. (a) £5, 6, 7, 83s (d) £2, 4, 5, 73s (c) {1 81s (@) (3, 4, 7, 8} (a) He chooses a car with air conditioning. (b) He chooses a car with bucket seats or no power stearing. (c) He chooses a car with bucket seats that 1s 2 or 3 years old. (d) He chooses a car with bucket seats that is 2 or 3 years old. (a) House has fewer than three baths; (b) does not have fire place; (c) does not cost more than $100,000; (d) is not new; (e) has three or more baths and fire place; (f) has three or more baths and costs more than $100,000; (g) costs more than $100,000 but has no fire place; (h) 1s new ‘or costs more than $100,000; (i) is new or costs $100,000 or less; (5) has 3 or more baths and/or fire place; (k) has 3 or more baths and/or costs more than $100,000; (1) is new and costs more than $100,000. (a) (st), (H.2)5 (Hs3)5 (Ho), (HS) (H66) (HH), (THAT), (1TH), (TTT) (b) (41), (HZ), (H.3), Hod)» (5), (HSE), (THT)» (TATE) (eo) (H,5), (H,6) THAT), (TAH). (TTT) (a) $ = {(0,0,0) ... (1,1,1)} A= {(1,0,1), (0151). (16113 B = {(0,1,1)} c = {(1,0,1)} {b) A&B not mutually exclusive, A & C not mutually exclusive, B.&C are mutually exclusive. +3, x13, X2xX23, XaX2Ka3, 0+ where x, = 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 for all i (a) ©, (14 5458 4 HT eile . si sk-3 got (a) 136 x 61095 (B) LS CxS 8)s (0) 136K 5); (8) (KL 06xs30r5) A driver does not have collision insurance. (c) A driver has either liability or collision insurance, but not both. (4) A driver does not have both kinds of insuranc (a) A car brought to the garage needs engine overhaul, transmission repairs, and new tires. (b) A car brought to the garage needs trans- mission repairs, nev tires, but no engine overhaut. (c) A car brought to the garage needs engine overhaul, but neither transmission repairs nor new tires. (4) A car brought to the garage needs engine overhaul and new tires. (e) A car brought to the garage needs trans- mission repairs, but no new tires. (f) A car brought to the garage does not need engine overhaul. (a) 55 (b) 1 and 2 together; (c) 3, 5, and 6 together; (4) 1, 3, 4, and 6 together. 200 - (138 + 115) + 91 = 38 () 500 - (308 + 266) + 103 = 29 + 59 results are inconsistent Q 29 22.52 2.53 2.54 2.55 2.56 2.57 258 259 2.60 a) 125 (b) 65 (c) 20 (a) permissible; (b) not permissible because the sum of the Probabilities exceeds 1; (c) permissible; (d) not permissible because P(E) is negative; (e) not permissible because the sum of the probabilties is less than 1. (a) 1 ~ 0.37 = 0.63; (b) 1 - 0.44 = 0.56; (c) 0.37 + 0.44 = 0.81; (2) 05 (e) 0.37, P(A n BY) = P(A) for mutually exclusive events; (f) 1 - 0.81 = 0.19 (a) Probability cannot be negative. (b) 0.77 + 0.08 = 0.85 # 0.95 (c) 0.12 + 0.25 + 0.36 + 0.14 + 0.09 + 0.07 = 1.03 > 1 (d) 0.08 + 0.21 + 0.29 + 0.40 = 0.98 <1 (0,0), (140), (2,0), (3,0), (450), (5,0), (O51). (1419s (21), Badd AID, (5A), (O12) (Ls2)s (24274 CBs2)s (4,2)s (512)s (0,3) (163), (2.3), (3y3)s (4,3) (5.3)s (OA). (14). (2A) (BoA) C444)» (544) @P-b Os bOF-b OH| 80 {a) 0.12 + 0.17 = 0.295 (b) 0.17 + 0.34 + 0.29 = (©) 0.34 + 0.17 + 0.12 = 0.63; (d) 0.34 + 0.29 + 0.08 = 0.71 (a) 0.24 + 0.22 = 0.463 (b) 0.15 + 0.03 + 0.22 = 0.40 (e) 0.03 + 0.08 = 0.115 (d) 0.15 + 0.03 + 0.28 + 0.22 = 0.68 : . . dererer. a, (ay 2g 10 = Bs AB = fs (ed 2G = gs AAG = OF (Sgt. Bek Let P(A) = 4p, P(B) = 2p, P(C) = 2p, and P(D) = pe Then 9p = 1 and p = 3; (a) 35 () 1-3 = 8 13261 2.63 264 2.65 2.66 267 C$ 420 20 Thine" ma CDG Gas 13-12-6-6-46-120 198 ro) 2-52-51-50-49-48 4165 fa) = 0.0475 (by 13548. _13-48-120 CD 52+51-50-49-48 4165 6 (5) (3, (NQNQI~4 _ 15-1063-4 25 Sears @ 5-6-6-6-6 * TOE 605) +54 “e—- 6-55)) © ee 6(8)-5 @ = s 78 = [64 + 36-34] 12 2 wo 12 (a) P(A vB) 4s Tess than P(A). (b) P(A mB) exceeds P(A). (©) P(A vB) = 0.72 + 0.84 - 2 =,0 > The area of the triangle is = 1.04 exceeds 1 = 6; Ifthe point is a distance x from the vertex on the longer leg, then it will be 2 units om the vertex on the other. ‘The area of a For this to be greater than 3, or half the area of the triangle, x? > 8, or x > 22. the required triangle is x-—2% "4268 269 270 an 272 273 274 275 (a) 0.59 + 0.30 - 0.21 » 0,685 (b) 0.59 - 0.21 = 0.38 (€) 1 - 0.21 = 0.795 (4) 1 0.68 = 0.32 0.21 + 0.28 - 0.15 = 0.34 (a) 0.08 + 0.05 - 0.02 = 0.1 (b) 1 - 0.02 = 0.98 (c) 0.08 + 0.05 - 2(0.02) = 0.09 1 beds og wo erg 5 6 coed Lila S51 lub ba g-g- ac 8- apa P(out of state living on campus) be P(out of state not living on campus) P(from Virginia living on campus) d= P(from Virginia not living on campus) 0.74 + 0.70 + 0.62 ~ 0.52 - 0.46 - 0.44 + 0.34 = 0.98 0.70 + 0.64 + 0.58 + 0.58 - 0.45 - 0.42 - 0.41 - 0.35 - 0.39 - 0.32 + 0.23 + 0.26 + 0.21 + 0.20 - 0.12 = 0.94 (a) The pronabitity is g_24 gr « Bf that one of the eggs will be cracked, (b) The probability 1s qty = }4 that they will not all be $1 bilTs. (e) The provabitity ts gS = F that ve will not get a meaningtur word and 1 - § = J that we will get @ meaningful word. (a) Te ots are 16 t0 gf or 3 t0 2: (b) The odds are 2 to 7 or 11 to 5; (e) The odds are J t0 Zor 7 to 2 against st. 5276 (ay WHE. M.S y) BEM. Be Bw 0) Bn aes) eda Bo oa BF 277 ay ¥= YE Ds OF = HB EP Q 088 2.80 wis onthe: aise “8 2.81 (@) Letting Rand W, respectively, denote that a red or a white ball was drawn, RRWUWR = FIRM + WR = 2-4. 42.2 -02 400 100” 100 100 ©) AR on draw 1) = 2; PWIA on draw 1) = 100 99 thus PAW = =. © ‘Similarly RAWwUWA = 2+. 2 0 (90 282 ot consistent 283 odds are 5 to 3 that either car will miss. ees oucome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -.. No. Combinations 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3°92 1 Probabilty 1/96 148 142 19 56 1/6 596 119 112 118 196 () (4249444 S464 SH hee 24 1108 = 16285 2.96 287 2.88 2.89 291 292 293 Using MINITAB software, first we generate 1,000 uniformly distributed pseudo- random numbers, putting them in Column 4 (C1) as follows: ‘MTB> Random 1000 C1; ‘SUBC> Uniform 0.0 10.0. Sorting these numbers facilitates counting the number that are less than 1. The sort is accomplished as follows: MTB> Sort C1, C2; ‘SUBC> by Ct. ‘When we did this, we obtained 111 numbers less than 1; thus, the required probability is estimated to be 111/4,000 = 0.114 (a) Repeating the work of Exercise 2.59, we found the corresponding probability for the second set to be 99/1,000 = 0.099. Obtaining P(AUB) is facilitated by using the LET command to add the two columns of random numbers and then sorting the resulting column. When we performed these operations, we noted that there were 22 cases in which the sum column contained a number less than 2. Thus, we estimated the required probability as 22/1,000 = 0.022. (b) Using Theorem 2.7 with P(A) = P(B) = 0.1 we obtain 0.0140.01-0.001 = 0.019. 20 0.20 3 204 0.0 + O10 * 7.85 FT 1.18 + 0.16 - 0.10 | 0.24 3 co) GeSy = Bs) BBS = Be 0 abe See tees © Bogs “aT 0.46 - 0.34 | 0.12 _2 ©) “30 O30 5 (0.55)(0.80) = 0.46 C32) 120-109-108, (22) * Ya0-119-118 = 0.7685 (a) (0.8)(0.2)(0.6) = 0.096; (t) (0.20)(0.40)(0.60) = 0.048; (c) (0-8)(0.8)(0.2)(0.4) = 0.0512; (4) (0.8)(0-8) + (0.2)(0.6) = 0.76 514.1312 | 91 ‘TS 1617 * 323 Aceven first, B even second, ¢ sane number both Pca) = 3, pce) = B, Pec) = 8, eA 8) = 3, mA nc) = ae = 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66 pepe) = qh, PAN Bac) eae gh e dbed ot (ay since $e} = 2, debe gh ard Jed « gh, events are patrvise independent. (o) since Hd + gb the events are aot independent. v294 2.95 2.96 297 298 2.99 2.100 2.101 2.102 2.103 2.104 ORG aad @) $4 (a) (0.52)? = 0.1406; (b) (0.48)*(0.52) = 0.1198 (a) The requires probability is approximately (0.99)° = 0.9606 (assuming independence). The exact probabilty is (e) The required probability is approximately (0.98)"(0.01) = 0.0097 (assuming independence). The exact probabilty is -990_ , 989 , 988, 10 ~ 9.9997 4,000 999 998 997 1 ~ (0.9)** = 1 ~ 0.2824 = 0.7176 (a) (0.9)(0.9)(0.9) = 0.729 {b) (0.6) (0.6)(0.4) = 0.144 Peay = 3, pce) = 3, Pec) = 4, POO) = PAB) = BPA) = 8 P(A nd) = B, Pence) = B, PIB nd) =f, P(E AD) =H Pik 8 ne) «he PAB a) wh Pian 0) = Gh P(B aC ad) = qh, An Bac nd) = gh. substitution shows that at? conditions for independence are satisfied. (0.7) (0.84) + (0.3)(0.49) = 0.735 (0-5)(0.68) + (0-5)(0.84) = 0.76 vee. (0.60)(0.45) + (0-15)(0.70) + (0.25)(0.40) Zc ES cay 6 0.105 + 0-1 » 0.475 fF 18210s yf = 0.5004 (a) (0.04)(0.82) + (0.96) (0.03) 2.106 FO Nose AB = 0.0328 + 0.0288 = 0.0616 wre “oss (b) S937 = 0.5325 (a) (0.08)(0.95) + (0.92)(0.02) 2.107 . re ‘00 = 0,076 + 0.0184 = 0.0944 os No “one (b) Soger = 9-8051 (0.6) (0.35) 2.108 og S eS aOR SoA om ns “Eas + perth « Beit + 0.2018 0.05/0.3425 = 0.1460 2.110 0.08/0.3425 = 0.2336 0.10/0.3425 = 0.2920 0.1125/0.3425 = 0.3285 (a) Most likely cause is sabotage. (b) Least likely cause ts static electricity 2411 2112 emotes ~ 1280 PCY) = 0.6 PCH) + O-4[1 - PCH] < Yes (a) PY) = 0.4 + 0.2 PCH) repair set 8 wy spy = 2+ POM) vo = HME - 2 = 0x12 192.113 (0.995)(0.990)(0.992)(0.995)(0.998) = 0.970. 2.114 (0.95)°(0.99)° = 0.832. 2.116 FP= 0.95 «. R=(0.95)"" = 0.991. 2116 R= 90 «. R= (0.90)°" = 0.990. 2.417 1 - (1-0.8)(1-0.7)(1-0.65) = 0.979. 2.118 1 - (1-0.85)(1-0.80)(1-0.65)(1-0.60)(1-0.70) = 0.999. 2.119 (0.95X0.90){1-(1-0.60)4] [1-(1-0.75)"] = 0.781. 2.120 (0.98)(0.99)[1-(1-0.75)(1-0.60}(1-0.65)(1-0.70)(1-0.60) = 0.966. 20