SIAM

Demand Forecasts for

Indian Automobile Industry
• A formal and continuous forecasting exercise, across
domestic automobile segments
• Objective to develop statistically rigorous forecasting
methods
• Economic Research Group (ERG) of SIAM
commissioned to develop the forecasting model for
domestic Auto Industry
• Annual forecasts prepared for 2010-11
• Statistical methods used for forecasting, considering
all the relevant demand drivers for each segment
• Models prepared after considering an exhaustive list
of relevant variables
– Macro-economic variables: eg. GDP components, industrial
production, inflation, interest rates, stock indices
– Sector variables: eg. Model launches, vehicle price, inter-
segment competition
– Enablers/barriers: eg. Finance availability, road connectivity
 Summary of Forecasts

Automobile segments 2010‐11 growth over 2009‐10 (per cent)

Passenger cars 23‐25
Utility vehicles 26‐28
LCV (goods) 25‐27
MHCV (goods) 22‐24
Commercial vehicles (buses) 11‐13
Motorcycles 16‐18
Scooters 30‐32
Three wheelers (goods) 1‐2
Three wheelers (passengers) 18‐20

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