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  • Forecast Simulation: Input Value Base Forecast

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    This document contains a forecasting model that simulates sales under different economic scenarios. It includes baseline data on factors like interest rates, consumer sentiment, and end-of-year sales declines. Three scenarios are modeled: a stable "ceteris parabus" economy, a "double dip" recession with lower sentiment and higher declines, and a scenario with a 25% interest rate hike. The model forecasts monthly sales from January to December under each scenario, with the interest hike scenario showing the largest sales decreases.

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    Forecast Automotive

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    This document contains a forecasting model that simulates sales under different economic scenarios. It includes baseline data on factors like interest rates, consumer sentiment, and end-of-year sales declines. Three scenarios are modeled: a stable "ceteris parabus" economy, a "double dip" recession with lower sentiment and higher declines, and a scenario with a 25% interest rate hike. The model forecasts monthly sales from January to December under each scenario, with the interest hike scenario showing the largest sales decreases.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    14 views6 pages

    Forecast Simulation: Input Value Base Forecast

    Uploaded by

    cpbdumw
    This document contains a forecasting model that simulates sales under different economic scenarios. It includes baseline data on factors like interest rates, consumer sentiment, and end-of-year sales declines. Three scenarios are modeled: a stable "ceteris parabus" economy, a "double dip" recession with lower sentiment and higher declines, and a scenario with a 25% interest rate hike. The model forecasts monthly sales from January to December under each scenario, with the interest hike scenario showing the largest sales decreases.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 6

    Forecasting Model

    Input Value Output


    % Change
    Ceteris Parabus Base Forecast
    in Sale
    OPR (%) 2.50 2.50 -

    Consumer Sentiment Index (Index = 100) 100 100 -

    End of year natural Decline: Oct, Nov, Dec (%) - -

    Petrol Price (RM) 1.85 1.85 -

    Input Value Output


    % Change
    A Double Dip Base Forecast
    in Sale
    OPR (%) 2.50 2.25 5

    Consumer Sentiment Index (Index = 100) 100 85 (15)

    End of year natural Decline: Oct, Nov, Dec (%) 5 (5)

    Petrol Price (RM) 1.85 1.85 -

    Input Value Output


    % Change
    Interest Hike 25% Base Forecast
    in Sale
    OPR (%) 2.50 2.75 (5)

    Consumer Sentiment Index (Index = 100) 100 100 -

    End of year natural Decline: Oct, Nov, Dec (%) 5 (5)

    Petrol Price (RM) 1.85 1.85 -

    RM '000
    Forecast Simulation
    2,500,000

    2,000,000

    1,500,000 1,510,000 1,505,000


    1,433,513
    1,340,014

    1,115,000 1,125,000
    1,000,000 1,020,000
    915,000
    810,000
    810,000

    500,000

    -
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    500,000

    -
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    Effect of OPR to Car Interest Loan rate

    Assumption Ref
    OPR 2.25 2.5 2.75
    3.75 3.75 Car Int Rate 2.8 3.75 4.7
    - y=3.8x-5.75
    -

    -
    Actual Data
    Sales (RM '000) Jan Feb Mar Apr

    Assumption Ref
    Car A 300,000 400,000 500,000 700,000
    2.80 3.75 Car B 500,000 500,000 500,000 400,000
    (15) Car C 10,000 15,000 20,000 15,000
    (5) Total 810,000 915,000 1,020,000 1,115,000
    -
    Forecast Simulation
    Scenario (RM '000) Jan Feb Mar Apr

    Assumption Ref
    1 2 3 4
    4.70 3.75 Ceteris Parabus 810,000 915,000 1,020,000 1,115,000
    - A Double Dip 810,000 915,000 1,020,000 1,115,000
    (5) Interest Hike 25% 810,000 915,000 1,020,000 1,115,000
    -

    ast Simulation Ceteris Parabus A Double Dip Interest Hike 25%

    2,108,571
    1,987,857
    1,867,143
    1,746,429
    1,625,714 1,581,415 1,599,485 1,627,892
    1,567,252
    1,510,000 1,505,000 1,509,583
    1,433,513
    1,340,014 1,363,553 1,380,555
    1,322,948 1,307,114 1,288,460

    Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


    Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    May Jun

    800,000 900,000

    300,000 600,000

    25,000 10,000

    1,125,000 1,510,000

    May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

    5 6 7 8 9 10 11

    1,125,000 1,510,000 1,505,000 1,625,714 1,746,429 1,867,143 1,987,857

    1,125,000 1,510,000 1,340,014 1,363,553 1,380,555 1,322,948 1,307,114

    1,125,000 1,510,000 1,433,513 1,509,583 1,581,415 1,567,252 1,599,485


    Dec

    12

    2,108,571

    1,288,460

    1,627,892

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