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Innovationeconomyv3 1226384863551777 9
Innovationeconomyv3 1226384863551777 9
Innovationeconomyv3 1226384863551777 9
WIKIPEDIA
STKI
מתוך ויקיפדיה ,האנציקלופדיה החופשית
חברת STKI - Schwarzkopf The Knowledge Integrators
היא חברת ייעוץ בתחום מערכות מידע בישראל ,המפעילה צוות
טוח, ם ,חברות ב
ביטוח כוללים בנק
בנקים ם .לקוחות החברה כולל ם של אנל סט
אנליסטים
משרדי ממשלה ,חברות היי-טק ותעשייה ,חברות טלקום ועוד.
Innovation Economy: באמצע שנות ה ,80-ד"ר ג'ימי )חיים( שוורצקוף ביצע את
המחקר הראשון מסוגו אודות שוק טכנולוגיית המידע בישראל,
עבור חברת .DECהמחקר הכה גלים בשוק הישראלי ,ונתן
Resist the hype but don’t ignore the realities תמונת מצב קונקרטית בשוק שהיה עד אותה עת בלתי ממופה.
ד"ר שוורצקוף המשיך בחקר השוק ובשנת1992הקים את חברת
,Meta Group Israelששימשה כנציגות בישראל של חברת
Meta Groupהעולמית .במסגרת החברה ,המשיך ד"ר
Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf שוורצקוף לפרסם מחקרי שוק בתחום באופן קבוע ,וכן לספק
Research Fellow ייעוץ לחברות והארגונים המובילים בשוק .בשנת 2004נרכשה
Meta Groupהעולמית על ידי חברת גרטנר ,וד"ר שוורצקוף
STKI
והאנליסטים המשיכו בפעילותם בישראל תחת השם .STKI
jimmy@stki.info 1
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Inviting you to my office
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This presentation is dangerous: will make people think about
and to my library......... intelligence and wisdom (two very different things)
• Evariste Galois (1811‐1832)
– accepted a duel with pistols.
– spent the night before the duel in
writing down his mathematical
testament: theory of
transformation of roots in
algebraic equations.
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If I could have predicted this ??
Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot
www.KurzweilAI.net
15 16
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www.KurzweilAI.net
Technological
progress
Time
40-60 years
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PROF. THOMAS KUHN Prof. Joseph Schumpeter
• we do not advance in steady, even progress • Suggested that Economies are
but in a series of peaceful interludes Driven by “Creative Destruction”
punctuated by violent revolutions,
revolutions
• each conceptual world view is replaced by • Shifts the Focus of Economics from
another Price Adjustment to Innovation
PARADIGM SHIFT: • Financial Innovation Tends to
Fi i lI i T d
Produce Sectoral Bubbles
1. A change in world view that • Bubbles Tend to Eventually Burst
calls everything you know
into question • The Fallout from Bursting Bubbles
2. Paradigm Shift Rate is now Often Threatens to Trigger an
doubling every decade Economy‐wide Recession
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TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE Austrian‐School credit cycle theory
• Ineffective central bank policies tend to "artificially" set interest
Degree INSTALLATION PERIOD Turning
Point
DEPLOYMENT PERIOD rates too low for too long, resulting in excessive credit creation,
of diffusion
of the speculative "bubbles" and "artificially" low savings.
on and role shift
technological
revolution – Low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the
Kuhn’s banking system.
“boom”
– Leading to an unsustainable monetary boom
Leading to an unsustainable "monetary boom" during which
during which
Institutional recompositio
Reaping of growth
‘Creative and social benefits the "artificially stimulated" borrowing seeks out diminishing
destruction’ from the prevailingSchumpeter’s investment opportunities.
Paradigm shift paradigm Creative
– A correction or "credit crunch" – commonly called a
destruction
"recession" or "bust" – occurs when this credit creation
cannot be sustained.
big--bang
big Next
big-bang
big- Time
2O - 30 years ??? 2O - 30 years
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Recurring phases of each great surge The changing face of the last 100 years
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Which road should we take ? directions of the current paradigm shift
Alice came to a fork in the road.
“Which road do I take?” she asked.
“Where do you want to go?”
responded the Cheshire cat.
“I don’t know” Alice answered.
“Then” said the cat,
“it doesn’t matter”. Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
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FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
“SERVICES”
Reinvest in
human capital
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Prof. Israel Kirzner
• Into a world of men unable to learn… introduce
a group of outsiders who are able to perceive
opportunities …where a good can be sold at a
price higher than that at which it can be
brought.
• This group of entrepreneurs…notice profit
opportunities that exist because of the initial
ignorance of the original market participants
and that have persisted because of their
inability to learn.
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Control Cash
Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy
The birth of
Compete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space.
Generation C
Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant.
(T people)
Communicate Connected The New Economic Age
Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand.
Content Creative Class Align the whole system of a firm’s Align the whole system of a firm’s
Conversation activities with its strategic choice of activities in pursuit of
differentiation or low cost. differentiation and low cost.
Community
Channel
Consumer 2.0
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So what do we do in the “New Era” ?
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Service : A Definition
Shift to a • Cultural change: From product to service.
solutions economy • Service is produced and consumed at
customer site and delivered by people.
From product to service • A service is a series of activities that
normally take place in interactions
What are customers between the customer and supplier
trying to solve?
(employees, physical resources, goods
“Less stuff… more service” and/or systems), and which are provided
as answers to customers' needs.
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Example: Suppliers of components with Competition in services?
added‐value better processes
• Suppliers deliver more than a product, they
deliver a service:
– involvement in design phase of final product
– order process
– delivery in‐time and accurate
d li i ti d t
– invoice process
• The quality of the whole process is relevant,
not only the quality of the delivered
components.
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SERVICE ECONOMY
pushes need for “new CIO”
“I’m an inventor.
Innovation I became interested
in long term trends
because an
invention has to
invention has to
BUSINESS
Ray Kurzweil
make sense in the
PROCESSES world in which it is
finished, not the
world in which it is
started.”
Time
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‐
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Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ? Cloud Computing Modularity
• Represents a change in BUSINESS MODEL ?
Desktop as a service
Wisdom of Clouds : "cloud computing"
"cloud computing" What is Cloud Computing?
What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself 1. data and services reside in massively scalable data
but how the pieces have come together to centers
make doing business in the cloud seem increasingly
like an economic inevitability 2. accessed from any connected devices over the
internet.
computing ti is
Cl d Your Text here
Cloud i a simple
i l concept:
t Your Text here
• Software and services are delivered over the Web and
through a browser.
• No servers or client software to install.
• Available anytime, anywhere, from any device
connecting to the Internet
Web 2.0-
enabled PCs, Businesses,
4+ billion phones by 2010
TVs, etc. from startups
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Cloud Computing Architecture
Apache
Monitoring Agent
Open Source Linux with Xen
Management Stack
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History of Innovation
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Computing and Communication Technologies
Evolution: 1960‐2010!
Some background
Cloud
Computing
Your Text here Your Text here
Centralised Decentralised
Control
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Disruptive technologies Books of the 1980‐90s
• Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s)
-” No institution can possibly survive if it needs
geniuses or supermen to manage it. it
It must be organized in such a way as to be
able to get along under a leadership composed
• Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1981), TCP/IP (1980’s), C/S
Architectures (1980’s), SUN workstations (1980’s), Internet (1990’s) of average human beings”-
Your Text here Your Text here
“It is the means by which [organizations] create value-
producing resources or endows existing resources
• Open Source (2002); Introduction of XML‐based Composite Applications (2006), with enhanced potential for creating value”
Service Oriented Architectures (2005), Virtualized Infrastructures (2004),
Web2/internet 2 (2007), Cloud Computing (2008), METAweb (2008)
“The customer rarely buys what the
company
thinks it is selling him”
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BOOK OF 2003
copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966
BOOK OF THE 1990’s
• Introduced the business world
to rethinking operations.
• Demonstrated how process
redesign can yield
breakthroughs in performance
breakthroughs in performance Plus 10,000 rebuttals
into the English language.
Plus 2000+ rebuttals
And 5 books
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Book of 2005 Book of 2008
• Thomas Friedman • Stephen Baker introduces us to the
– 3 billion people (consumers & producers) mathematical wizards who are digging
entered the world economies through our data to decode us as
• Eastern Europe (ie: Rumania) patients, shoppers, voters, potential
• Asia (ie: China, India) terrorists—even
terrorists even lovers.
lovers.
– Now we have a “new” economy: • translate the complexity of highly
• Interconnected (fiber everywhere) intelligent knowledge workers into the
• Standardized (Open Source) same types of equations and algorithms
• Supply Chains Management that are used to fine‐tune shipping, sales
• Out‐sourcing, In‐sourcing, Off‐shoring
and other BI applications.
• Info sourcing
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A process of mutual shaping
Math based word cloud in a constantly changing context
TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY
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Maslow’s hierarchy of needs Access Proliferation
and the effect on IT…….
The Peopleware Ecosystem
Identity Management
WCM
Composite App. Wireless Security
Framework
SSO Application Servers
E-Learning
Search
Development Tools Business Intelligence
Infrastructures influence the new T person OLDENBURG: how infrastructure…
• infrastructure makes it possible Time is primarily spent in :
for people to work where they • First (home) place: isolated
want, when they want, how they • Second (work) place: isolated
want • Third places : neutral public space to
connect and establish bonds.
• SIX abilities needed: Big Changes now:
1. Design – Beauty and uniqueness Your Text here
• Between 1990-2006: people went to
Your Text here
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Defining the new world
T PERSON = Neo‐nomad Prof. Ragnar Frisch
• Willingness of people to
substitute as well as their ability
to substitute.
• One decision that people must
make is:
k
– how to allocate their time
endowment, which is the most
precious resource an individual
has.
Sveriges Riksbank Prize
Economic Sciences
Alfred Nobel 1969
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Neo‐nomads : new Bedouins flourishing in
Nomad Worker (2008) vs. Paris Existentialist (1950s)
the coffeehouses of central Israel
• A new breed of worker, fueled by Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and
laptop in Arcaffe (2008)
caffeine and using the tools of • simultaneously cramming for
modern technology exams, napping, instant-
messaging, researching, reading
• They are typically armed with and discussing, listening to music,
laptops and cell phones paying for
laptops and cell phones, paying for browsing and ee-mailing
mailing
Your Text here Your Text here
their office space and Internet Paris existentialist watching the
world go by at the café Les Deux
access by buying coffee and muffins Magots (1950s)
• This neo‐nomads see themselves • puffing a Gitane, napping and
jotting down notes about being
changing the nature of the and nothingness
workplace, if not the world at large.
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An example:
2007: the year of my discovery
2007: the year of my discovery my romantic attachment to my “GPS”
• “SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND”
I could outsource mental tasks
Life is a math problem and I have a calculator
GPS
• MAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGE
Not that it allows us to know more • EXTERNALIZE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FROM MY
It really allows us to know less BRAIN
• OUTSOURCE MAP READING SKILLS
• ALLOW CALCULATION OF DRIVE TIME
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Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ? I have outsourced
outsourced part of my life
my son is calling from there to external cognitive servants
external cognitive servants:
• No longer need a • Musical taste:
memory – ITunes
– Google
– Yahoo • Books and others:
– Wikipedia – Amazon
• Personal Information • Social Capital
– Smartphone tells me – LinkedIn
about birthdays, phones,
addresses – Xing
– Facebook
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Jimmy’s Touch Points
Blog Sites Music Sites
Reads his friend’s
postings Reads up on
new cd
releases
Sports Sites
Gets the latest
updates on
favorite teams
Gaming Sites
Looks for
information Checks scores
about Nascar
games Google.com
Searches for
“what’s cool”
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And with access to these tools I can answer
ANY question in less then 30 minutes
Banks YOUtube Business Average person:
Insurance Slideshare Simulations 10‐15 intimate
Travel Blogs Training 150 social
“Amazon” Newspapers Second Life 500‐1500 weak
“e‐bay” WIKIPEDIA Sales links
Websites can
no longer be
islands
Users want
bridges
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elsewhere 80
Is it a coincidence or someone
How do they happen…..
is playing with us
1) Google's dissemination of old United Airlines news resulting in a precipitous UAL stock slide
2) Google stocks appeared to fall off a cliff during the final few minutes of trading last week(Silicon Alley
Insider has a minute-by-minute breakdown), plummeting from more than $400 per share to around $200.
Luckily, it turns out Nasdaq is declaring a “do-over,” canceling all trades above $425.28 or below $400.53.
Nasdaq blamed the drop on “erroneous orders” that were “triggered by orders routed from another
exchange.” So it has reset Google’s closing price at $400.52, up more than 5 percent from the day’s open.
3) Other news follows Google-related stock gaffe, during which Google Finance’s data was incorrect for
more than 12 hours.
hours
4) Apple stock briefly took a dive Friday after a CNN iReport post appeared saying Steve Jobs had had a
major heart attack. Apple said the story was false.
Stock prices fell as much as 5.4 percent before rebounding, according to Bloomberg. UPDATE: Here's CNN's
official statement. CNN says it removed the story because the community brought the story to its
attention. Importantly, CNN also refers to the content as "fraudulent," which is much stronger than
"inaccurate." The SEC has already launched an investigation.
What happened?
In all cases: systems unchecked by human beings made a mistake
resulting in massive damage to an already fragile market.
What else can we expect????????????
But the episodes aptly illustrates how jumpy the markets are and how easily they could be manipulated.
Posted by Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf
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A powerful global conversation has begun “A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander
• Through the Internet, people are discovering and Each pattern describes a problem that
inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge occurs over and over again in our
with blinding speed.
environment
• Networked markets are beginning to self‐organize
faster than the companies that have traditionally
Then describes the core of the solution
served them.
served them. to that problem, in such a way that
you can use this solution a million Your Text here
Your Text here
• As a direct result and thanks to the web, markets
are becoming better informed, smarter, and more times over
demanding of qualities missing from most business Without ever doing it the
organizations.
• markets are getting smarter and getting smarter same way twice
faster than most companies
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Social Technographics™
Companies wake up !!!!!!! Josh Bernoff, co‐author of Groundswell
Customers are:
• writing about products on blogs JOSH BERNOFF CHARLENE LI
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METAweb METAweb
METAweb phenomenon
(fi-nom-uh-non)
noun
-noun
1. a rare or significant fact or event in the
web that happened in 2007
2. something that is impressive or
extraordinary that happened in 2007
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Google versus ??? http://labs.google.com/
Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks,
and searches are the raw material)
Handful of cloud-wielding Internet giants like
Google, Yahoo! or Amazon.com transform the info
into insights, services, and, ultimately, revenue.
Your Text here Your Text here
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Cloud Computing Why does it bother me ?
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Google 10 years of innovation Google ad
Core Search Ads Monetization Communications Collaboration ?
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Open for Business
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Internet 2 is not Web 2
Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing
WEB 2
WEB are WEB Technologies
2 are WEB
Leveraging the Web for
Measureable Business Results In 2010: all new WEB experience
Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room
• Gone are the days when that can be experienced alone or with friends
merely having an online
presence was a
business breakthrough.
• Today's companies Your Text here Your Text here
MUST leverage the
power of the Web if
they're to gain and
maintain a competitive
advantage.
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Ramona:
first live virtual performing recording
artist.
Express yourself
Customize your avatar and stream
personal photos and video
Second Life is the
biggest virtual world Currency: Linden$
• 40,000 concurrency (at any time) Million Square Meters of • LindeX exchange operated by US$ Spent by Users
• 450,000 active users (last 7 days) Linden Lab (in Millions)
Second Life Land
• 1.4 m active users (last 2 months) – Buy: USD $.30 transaction fee
• 10.6 m total accounts – Sell: 3.5% transaction fee
• 2 m assets created per day • Monetary policy
• 35 TB of user‐created data
• 800,000 unique items sold or traded
per month 270 L$ =$1 USD
• 500 events per day US $ Exchanged on
• 15 m concurrent scripts Lindex (in Millions)
Total User
• 10 Gbps peak bandwidth Hours (millions)
Source: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs
111
Economy Advisory/Analyst firms
• Reuters
• Banking and credit
• Stock markets
– SL Capital Exchange (US, 20 listings) We hope that during 2009 STKI will
– World Stock Exchange (Australia, 15 listings)
World Stock Exchange (Australia 15 listings) b presentt there
be th and
d will
ill h
have it’
it’s
– VSTEX (Italy, 7 listings) first SUMMIT
– Ancapex (US, 3 listings) H&R Block Island
Business Academia, museums, non‐profits
IBM
Government, politics and collective action METAweb REVOLUTION
The real, long-term change is just beginning to be felt,
and anyone thinking about our economic future should
consider this:
• access to information is a democratizing force
• makes it inexpensive and easy to collaborate and share
US Congress – hot topic information
information.
Your Text here Your Text here
legislation
US Congress • even the smallest companies can now have as big a
presence online as a multinational corporation
The revolution may have started in a garage in California
but it has already crossed every border
moving as freely
European Campaign HQs
around the globe as a cloud
Davos protest
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All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info