Innovationeconomyv3 1226384863551777 9

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 20

‫‪STKI Company Confidential‬‬ ‫‪for‬‬ ‫‪11/11/2008‬‬

‫‪STKI clients only‬‬

‫‪WIKIPEDIA‬‬
‫‪STKI‬‬
‫מתוך ויקיפדיה‪ ,‬האנציקלופדיה החופשית‬
‫חברת ‪STKI - Schwarzkopf The Knowledge Integrators‬‬
‫היא חברת ייעוץ בתחום מערכות מידע בישראל‪ ,‬המפעילה צוות‬
‫טוח‪,‬‬ ‫ם‪ ,‬חברות ב‬
‫ביטוח‬ ‫כוללים בנק‬
‫בנקים‬ ‫ם‪ .‬לקוחות החברה כולל ם‬ ‫של אנל סט‬
‫אנליסטים‬
‫משרדי ממשלה‪ ,‬חברות היי‪-‬טק ותעשייה‪ ,‬חברות טלקום ועוד‪.‬‬
‫‪Innovation Economy:‬‬ ‫באמצע שנות ה‪ ,80-‬ד"ר ג'ימי )חיים( שוורצקוף ביצע את‬
‫המחקר הראשון מסוגו אודות שוק טכנולוגיית המידע בישראל‪,‬‬
‫עבור חברת ‪ .DEC‬המחקר הכה גלים בשוק הישראלי‪ ,‬ונתן‬
‫‪Resist the hype but don’t ignore the realities‬‬ ‫תמונת מצב קונקרטית בשוק שהיה עד אותה עת בלתי ממופה‪.‬‬
‫ד"ר שוורצקוף המשיך בחקר השוק ובשנת‪1992‬הקים את חברת‬
‫‪ ,Meta Group Israel‬ששימשה כנציגות בישראל של חברת‬
‫‪ Meta Group‬העולמית‪ .‬במסגרת החברה‪ ,‬המשיך ד"ר‬
‫‪Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf‬‬ ‫שוורצקוף לפרסם מחקרי שוק בתחום באופן קבוע‪ ,‬וכן לספק‬
‫‪Research Fellow‬‬ ‫ייעוץ לחברות והארגונים המובילים בשוק‪ .‬בשנת ‪ 2004‬נרכשה‬
‫‪ Meta Group‬העולמית על ידי חברת גרטנר‪ ,‬וד"ר שוורצקוף‬
‫‪STKI‬‬
‫והאנליסטים המשיכו בפעילותם בישראל תחת השם ‪.STKI‬‬
‫‪jimmy@stki.info‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬


‫‪All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 74 444 74    www.stki.info‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬

‫‪@STKI‬‬ ‫‪Moshav Bnei Zion‬‬ ‫‪Israel‬‬


‫‪+972 (0) 9 790 7000‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Inviting you to my office 

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 7 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 w

This presentation is dangerous: will make people think  about 
and to my library......... intelligence and wisdom (two very different things)

• Evariste Galois (1811‐1832)
– accepted a duel with pistols. 
– spent the night before the duel in 
writing down his mathematical 
testament: theory of 
transformation of roots in 
algebraic equations.

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 2
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

If I could have predicted this ??

“When the network becomes as fast as the


processor, the computer hollows out and
So: I cannot “predict” any one in particular 
spreads across the network.” but…..
– Eric Schmidt, did in 1993
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot 

www.KurzweilAI.net
15 16
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
www.KurzweilAI.net

What has happened in 2008 and what can I do? Prof. Prescott and Prof. Kydland 


Is there a difference between economic cycles caused by:
• "contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the 
1. Technology changes time consistency of economic policy and the 
driving forces behind business cycles"
2. Credit mismanagement
• Forces behind business cycles:
– Technology for converting inputs of 
T h l f ti i t f
capital and labor into output of goods  
(technology for creating value)
– Technological change
…will this change INSTITUTIONS
organization, production and consumption
habits and norms ? Sveriges Riksbank Prize
Economic Sciences
Alfred Nobel 2004
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 3
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Economic progress takes place by overlapping surges FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN


DRIVEN BY SUCCESSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS 230 YEARS

Technological
progress

Time
40-60 years

All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

PROF. THOMAS KUHN Prof. Joseph Schumpeter 
• we do not advance in steady, even progress • Suggested that Economies are 
but in a series of peaceful interludes Driven by “Creative Destruction”
punctuated by violent revolutions,
revolutions
• each conceptual world view is replaced by • Shifts the Focus of Economics from 
another Price Adjustment to Innovation
PARADIGM SHIFT: • Financial Innovation Tends to 
Fi i lI i T d
Produce Sectoral Bubbles
1. A change in world view that • Bubbles Tend to Eventually Burst
calls everything you know
into question • The Fallout from Bursting Bubbles 
2. Paradigm Shift Rate is now Often Threatens to Trigger an 
doubling every decade Economy‐wide Recession
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE  Austrian‐School  credit cycle theory
• Ineffective central bank policies tend to "artificially" set interest 
Degree INSTALLATION PERIOD Turning
Point
DEPLOYMENT PERIOD rates too low for too long, resulting in excessive credit creation, 
of diffusion
of the speculative "bubbles" and "artificially" low savings.
on and role shift

technological
revolution – Low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the 
Kuhn’s banking system. 
“boom”
– Leading to an unsustainable  monetary boom
Leading to an unsustainable "monetary boom" during which 
during which
Institutional recompositio

Reaping of growth
‘Creative and social benefits the "artificially stimulated" borrowing seeks out diminishing 
destruction’ from the prevailingSchumpeter’s investment opportunities. 
Paradigm shift paradigm Creative
– A correction or "credit crunch" – commonly called a 
destruction
"recession" or "bust" – occurs when this credit creation 
cannot be sustained. 

big--bang
big Next
big-bang
big- Time
2O - 30 years ??? 2O - 30 years
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 4
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Recurring phases of each great surge The changing face of the last 100 years

All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

During the deployment phase: unprecedented Prof. Carlota Perez : 


opportunities and new business models TECHNO‐ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS

All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Which road should we take ? directions of the  current paradigm shift
Alice came to a fork in the road.
“Which road do I take?” she asked.
“Where do you want to go?”
responded the Cheshire cat.
“I don’t know” Alice answered.
“Then” said the cat,
“it doesn’t matter”. Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 74 444 74    www.stki.info 29
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 5
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
“SERVICES”

Reinvest in
human capital

All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Prof. Israel Kirzner
• Into a world of men unable to learn… introduce 
a group of outsiders who are able to perceive 
opportunities …where a good can be sold at a 
price higher than that at which it can be 
brought. 

• This group of entrepreneurs…notice profit 
opportunities that exist because of the initial 
ignorance of the original market participants 
and that have persisted because of their 
inability to learn. 

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Assumption : Generation C is here  from BUILD product to CREATE service


Co-Creators

Control Cash
Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy
The birth of
Compete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space.
Generation C
Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant.
(T people)
Communicate Connected The New Economic Age
Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand.

Creativity Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off.

Content Creative Class Align the whole system of a firm’s Align the whole system of a firm’s
Conversation activities with its strategic choice of activities in pursuit of
differentiation or low cost. differentiation and low cost.
Community
Channel
Consumer 2.0
35 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 36
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 6
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

So what do we do in the “New Era” ? 

All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Service : A Definition
Shift to a • Cultural change: From product to service.
solutions economy • Service is produced and consumed at 
customer site and delivered by people.
From product to service • A service is a series of activities that 
normally take place in interactions 
What are customers between the customer and supplier 
trying to solve?
(employees, physical resources, goods 
“Less stuff… more service” and/or systems), and which are provided 
as answers to customers' needs.

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Example: Suppliers of components with  Competition in services?
added‐value   better processes 
• Suppliers deliver more than a product, they 
deliver a service:
– involvement in design phase of final product
– order process
– delivery in‐time and accurate
d li i ti d t
– invoice process
• The quality of the whole process is relevant, 
not only the quality of the delivered 
components.

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 7
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

SERVICE ECONOMY
pushes need for “new CIO”
“I’m an inventor.  
Innovation I became interested 
in long term trends 
because an 
invention has to
invention has to 
BUSINESS
Ray Kurzweil
make sense in the 
PROCESSES world in which it is 
finished, not the 
world in which it is 
started.”                     
Time
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 43

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ? Cloud Computing Modularity
• Represents a change in BUSINESS MODEL ?
Desktop as a service

• Represents a “disruptive” change ? Software as a service


(standard applications)
YES Platform as a service
CLOUD COMPUTING and SOA are basically new  (custom applications)
“disruptive” ways of delivering IT
Infrastructure as a service
(compute, storage, network)
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Wisdom of Clouds : "cloud computing" 
"cloud computing"  What is Cloud Computing?
What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself 1. data and services reside in massively scalable data
but how the pieces have come together to centers
make doing business in the cloud seem increasingly
like an economic inevitability 2. accessed from any connected devices over the
internet.
computing ti is
Cl d Your Text here
Cloud i a simple
i l concept:
t Your Text here
• Software and services are delivered over the Web and
through a browser.
• No servers or client software to install.
• Available anytime, anywhere, from any device
connecting to the Internet
Web 2.0-
enabled PCs, Businesses,
4+ billion phones by 2010
TVs, etc. from startups
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 47 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info to enterprises

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 8
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Cloud Computing Architecture
Apache

Virtual Virtual Virtual Virtual


Machine Machine Machine Machine

Monitoring Agent
Open Source Linux with Xen

Data Center – 64 bit X86 Virtualized Infrastructure based on


Open Source Linux & Xen
Monitoring Provisioning Baremetal & Xen VM

Monitoring Provisioning Application Server


DBMS
Manager

Management Stack
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9  All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 50
790 7000 www.stki.info

History of Innovation 

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 51
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Computing and Communication Technologies 
Evolution: 1960‐2010!

Some background
Cloud  
Computing

Your Text here Your Text here

Centralised Decentralised

Control
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 53
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 9
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Disruptive technologies Books of the 1980‐90s
• Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s)
-” No institution can possibly survive if it needs
geniuses or supermen to manage it. it
It must be organized in such a way as to be
able to get along under a leadership composed
• Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1981), TCP/IP (1980’s), C/S 
Architectures  (1980’s), SUN workstations (1980’s), Internet (1990’s) of average human beings”-
Your Text here Your Text here
“It is the means by which [organizations] create value-
producing resources or endows existing resources
• Open Source (2002); Introduction of XML‐based Composite Applications (2006),  with enhanced potential for creating value”
Service Oriented Architectures (2005), Virtualized Infrastructures (2004), 
Web2/internet 2 (2007), Cloud Computing (2008), METAweb (2008) 
“The customer rarely buys what the
company
thinks it is selling him”
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 56

BOOK OF 2003
copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966
BOOK OF THE 1990’s
• Introduced the business world 
to rethinking operations. 
• Demonstrated how process 
redesign can yield 
breakthroughs in performance 
breakthroughs in performance Plus 10,000 rebuttals

• Put the word "reengineering"  And 20+ books

into the English language.
Plus 2000+ rebuttals
And 5 books

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Book of 2005 Book of 2008
• Thomas Friedman • Stephen Baker introduces us to the 
– 3 billion people (consumers & producers)  mathematical wizards who are digging 
entered the world economies through our data to decode us as 
• Eastern Europe (ie: Rumania) patients, shoppers, voters, potential 
• Asia (ie: China, India) terrorists—even
terrorists even lovers.
lovers.
– Now we have a “new” economy: • translate the complexity of highly 
• Interconnected (fiber everywhere) intelligent knowledge workers into the 
• Standardized (Open Source) same types of equations and algorithms 
• Supply Chains Management that are used to fine‐tune shipping, sales 
• Out‐sourcing, In‐sourcing, Off‐shoring
and other BI applications. 
• Info sourcing
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 10
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

A process of mutual shaping 
Math based word cloud in a constantly changing context

TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs Access Proliferation

• Video games • Radio • Satellite Radio


• Email • DVD • TiVo (Starhub PVR)
• XBox LIVE • Ring Tones • Video On-Demand
• Websites • TV • Newspapers
• IM • Blogs • Podcasting
• Search • Magazines • Cell Phone
Source: Darwin Day Conference, Google
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

and the effect on IT…….
The Peopleware Ecosystem
Identity Management
WCM
Composite App. Wireless Security
Framework
SSO Application Servers

Expertise Location EAI


& Mgmt.

Collaboration Web Services


Peopleware
BAM BPM
Directory E-Forms/Workflow

E-Learning
Search
Development Tools Business Intelligence

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info DM Knowledge Mgmt.


All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 11
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Infrastructures influence the new T person  OLDENBURG:  how infrastructure…
• infrastructure makes it possible  Time is primarily spent in :
for people to work where they  • First (home) place: isolated
want, when they want, how they  • Second (work) place: isolated
want • Third places : neutral public space to
connect and establish bonds.
• SIX  abilities needed: Big Changes now:
1. Design – Beauty and uniqueness  Your Text here
• Between 1990-2006: people went to
Your Text here

2. Story – More than mere facts  anonymous locations such as malls


3. Symphony – Seeing the big picture  • Starting in 2007: good third place makes
admission free or cheap (the price of a
4. Empathy – Understanding others  cup of coffee), offers comforts, is within
5. Play ‐ Enjoyment  walking distance and draws a group of
regulars.
6. Meaning – Fulfillment 

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 67 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 68

Defining the new world
T PERSON = Neo‐nomad  Prof. Ragnar Frisch
• Willingness of people to 
substitute as well as their ability 
to substitute.
• One decision that people must 
make is:
k
– how to allocate their time 
endowment, which is the most 
precious resource an individual 
has.
Sveriges Riksbank Prize
Economic Sciences
Alfred Nobel 1969
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 
790 7000 www.stki.info

Neo‐nomads :  new Bedouins flourishing in 
Nomad Worker (2008) vs.  Paris Existentialist (1950s)
the coffeehouses of central Israel
• A new breed of worker, fueled by  Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and
laptop in Arcaffe (2008)
caffeine and using the tools of  • simultaneously cramming for
modern technology exams, napping, instant-
messaging, researching, reading
• They are typically armed with  and discussing, listening to music,
laptops and cell phones paying for
laptops and cell phones, paying for  browsing and ee-mailing
mailing
Your Text here Your Text here
their office space and Internet  Paris existentialist watching the
world go by at the café Les Deux
access by buying coffee and muffins Magots (1950s)
• This neo‐nomads see themselves  • puffing a Gitane, napping and
jotting down notes about being
changing the nature of the  and nothingness
workplace, if not the world at large. 
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 72

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 12
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

An example: 
2007:   the year of my discovery
2007:   the year of my discovery my romantic attachment to my “GPS”

• “SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND”
I could outsource mental tasks
Life is a math problem and I have a calculator
GPS

• MAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGE
Not that it allows us to know more • EXTERNALIZE GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FROM MY 
It really allows us to know less BRAIN
• OUTSOURCE  MAP READING SKILLS
• ALLOW CALCULATION OF DRIVE TIME 
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 73 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 74

Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ? I have outsourced 
outsourced  part of my life 
my son is calling from there to external cognitive servants
external cognitive servants:
• No longer need a  • Musical taste:
memory – ITunes
– Google
– Yahoo • Books and others:
– Wikipedia – Amazon

• Personal Information • Social Capital
– Smartphone tells me  – LinkedIn
about birthdays, phones, 
addresses – Xing
– Facebook

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 75 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 76

Jimmy’s Touch Points
Blog Sites Music Sites
Reads his friend’s
postings Reads up on
new cd
releases

Movie Sites Downloads


Songs
y tickets
Buys
online

Sports Sites
Gets the latest
updates on
favorite teams
Gaming Sites
Looks for
information Checks scores
about Nascar
games Google.com
Searches for
“what’s cool”

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 13
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

And with access to these tools I can answer 
ANY question in less then 30 minutes
Banks YOUtube Business  Average person:
Insurance Slideshare Simulations 10‐15 intimate
Travel Blogs Training 150 social
“Amazon” Newspapers Second Life 500‐1500 weak 
“e‐bay” WIKIPEDIA Sales links

Transaction Sites Multimedia Sites Game Sites Social Sites

Websites can 
no longer be 
islands
Users want 
bridges 
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 79 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
elsewhere 80

Is it a coincidence or someone
How do they happen…..
is playing with us
1) Google's dissemination of old United Airlines news resulting in a precipitous UAL stock slide

2) Google stocks appeared to fall off a cliff during the final few minutes of trading last week(Silicon Alley
Insider has a minute-by-minute breakdown), plummeting from more than $400 per share to around $200.
Luckily, it turns out Nasdaq is declaring a “do-over,” canceling all trades above $425.28 or below $400.53.
Nasdaq blamed the drop on “erroneous orders” that were “triggered by orders routed from another
exchange.” So it has reset Google’s closing price at $400.52, up more than 5 percent from the day’s open.

3) Other news follows Google-related stock gaffe, during which Google Finance’s data was incorrect for
more than 12 hours.
hours

4) Apple stock briefly took a dive Friday after a CNN iReport post appeared saying Steve Jobs had had a
major heart attack. Apple said the story was false.
Stock prices fell as much as 5.4 percent before rebounding, according to Bloomberg. UPDATE: Here's CNN's
official statement. CNN says it removed the story because the community brought the story to its
attention. Importantly, CNN also refers to the content as "fraudulent," which is much stronger than
"inaccurate." The SEC has already launched an investigation.
What happened?
In all cases: systems unchecked by human beings made a mistake
resulting in massive damage to an already fragile market.
What else can we expect????????????
But the episodes aptly illustrates how jumpy the markets are and how easily they could be manipulated.
Posted by Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

A powerful global conversation has begun “A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander
• Through the Internet, people are discovering and  Each pattern describes a problem that
inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge  occurs over and over again in our
with blinding speed.
environment
• Networked markets are beginning to self‐organize 
faster than the companies that have traditionally 
Then describes the core of the solution
served them.
served them.  to that problem, in such a way that
you can use this solution a million Your Text here
Your Text here
• As a direct result and thanks to the web, markets 
are becoming better informed, smarter, and more  times over
demanding of qualities missing from most business  Without ever doing it the
organizations. 
• markets are getting smarter and getting smarter  same way twice
faster than most companies

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 83 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 84

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 14
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Social Technographics™ 
Companies wake up !!!!!!! Josh Bernoff, co‐author of Groundswell

Customers are:
• writing about products on blogs JOSH BERNOFF CHARLENE LI

• recutting commercials on YouTube


• defining companies on Wikipedia
• ganging
g g g up p in social networking
g sites
like Facebook
Your Text here Your Text here

MOST COMPANIES SEE IT AS A THREAT

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 85 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

METAweb METAweb

METAweb phenomenon
(fi-nom-uh-non)
noun
-noun
1. a rare or significant fact or event in the
web that happened in 2007
2. something that is impressive or
extraordinary that happened in 2007

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 87 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Google versus ??? http://labs.google.com/
Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks,
and searches are the raw material)
Handful of cloud-wielding Internet giants like
Google, Yahoo! or Amazon.com transform the info
into insights, services, and, ultimately, revenue.
Your Text here Your Text here

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 89 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 15
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Cloud Computing  Why does it bother me ?

A. IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today ‐ Nov 15 2007


B. IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research Initiative for Cloud Computing
IT News Online ‐ Feb 7 2008
C. Google and Salesforce.com in cloud computing deal
Siliconrepublic.com ‐ Apr 14 2008

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 91 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Google 10 years of innovation Google ad
Core Search Ads Monetization Communications Collaboration ?

1995 1998 2000 2003 2004 2005 2007 ?

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 93

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 96

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 16
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Open for Business

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 99

Internet 2  is not  Web 2

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 101 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 102

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 17
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing
WEB 2 
WEB  are WEB  Technologies
2 are WEB  

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 103 104

Leveraging the Web for 
Measureable Business Results In 2010: all new WEB experience
Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room
• Gone are the days when  that can be experienced alone or with friends
merely having an online 
presence was a 
business breakthrough.
• Today's companies  Your Text here Your Text here

MUST leverage the 
power of the Web if 
they're to gain and 
maintain a competitive 
advantage.
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 105 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 106

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 107 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 18
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Ramona: 
first live virtual performing recording 
artist.

Create your own virtual space


Chat and interact with your friends
in rooms you design

Express yourself
Customize your avatar and stream
personal photos and video

Add your room to your site


Invite your friends to chat and help
decorate
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

Second Life is the 
biggest virtual world Currency: Linden$
• 40,000 concurrency (at any time) Million Square Meters of • LindeX exchange operated by  US$ Spent by Users
• 450,000 active users (last 7 days) Linden Lab (in Millions)
Second Life Land
• 1.4 m  active users (last 2 months) – Buy: USD $.30 transaction fee 
• 10.6 m total accounts – Sell: 3.5% transaction fee
• 2 m assets created per day • Monetary policy
• 35 TB of user‐created data
• 800,000 unique items sold or traded 
per month  270 L$ =$1 USD
• 500 events per day US $ Exchanged on
• 15 m concurrent scripts Lindex (in Millions)
Total User
• 10 Gbps peak bandwidth Hours (millions)

Source: Linden Lab

Source: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs
111

Economy Advisory/Analyst  firms

• Reuters
• Banking and credit
• Stock markets
– SL Capital Exchange (US, 20 listings) We hope that during 2009 STKI will
– World Stock Exchange (Australia, 15 listings)
World Stock Exchange (Australia 15 listings) b presentt there
be th and
d will
ill h
have it’
it’s
– VSTEX (Italy, 7 listings) first SUMMIT
– Ancapex (US, 3 listings) H&R Block Island

KAWG&F (Baltimore MD CPA firm),


CPA Island BDO Stoy Accenture
Hayward Island

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 19
STKI Company Confidential for 11/11/2008
STKI clients only

Business Academia, museums, non‐profits

IBM

Preen Motorati Preen Principal:


Cisco SpokesAvatar: Aimee Weber
caLLie
LLi cLine
Li Princeton Art Gallery Science Friday

Dr. Dobbs Life 2.0 Conference

Best Buy’s H&R Block International Computer History American Cancer


115 116
Geek Squad Spaceflight Museum Museum Society Relay for
Life

Government, politics and collective action METAweb REVOLUTION
The real, long-term change is just beginning to be felt,
and anyone thinking about our economic future should
consider this:
• access to information is a democratizing force
• makes it inexpensive and easy to collaborate and share
US Congress – hot topic information
information.
Your Text here Your Text here
legislation
US Congress • even the smallest companies can now have as big a
presence online as a multinational corporation
The revolution may have started in a garage in California 
but it has already crossed every border
moving as freely
European Campaign HQs
around the globe as a cloud
Davos protest
Community All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info 118
All Rights Reserved @STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  + +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI    Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel


+972 (0) 9 790 7000 20

You might also like