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ACTION E-uR.-01 B6
INFO LOG-OO ADS-OO AID-01 AMAI)-01 CIAE-OO C-01 DODE-OO
EB-01
ANlIR-01 CSCE-01 HA-09 H-01 INRE-OO INR-01
IO -19 LAB-04 L-03 MOFM-01 MOF-03 M-01 NRRC-01
NSCE-OO OIC-02
NS..AE-OO OMB-01 PA-01 PM-01 PRS-01
P-()l RP-10 SCT-03 SIL-01 SNP-01 SP-01 SR-01
SS -01 STR-18 TRSE-OO T-01 USIE-OO /094W
------------------9A3EE4 281012Z /38
P 2810162 SEP 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6724
AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST PRIORITY
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 27879

DEPT FOR P, C, sip, HA, EOR/SOV

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, PHOM, SOCI, RO, OR
SUBJECT: MOLDOVA: A FRAGILE STABILITY ENDURES, BUT
FOR HOW LONG?

REF: MOSCOW 25482

1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUM:MARY: THE MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT IS STEERING A

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CAREFUL COURSE BETWEEN THE SCYLLA OF THE BREAKAWAY
TRANS-DNIESTER AND GAGAUZ "REPUBLICS" AND THE
CHARYBDIS OF MILITANT PAN-ROMANIAN NATIONALISTS. IT
ALSO HOSTED RUSSIAN AND TURKISH OBSERVER MISSIONS TO
EXAMINE THE CRISIS. THE SITUATION, HOWEVER, REMAINS
VOLATILE--AND RISKS BECOMING MORE SO AS THE DECEMBER 8
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION APPROACHES. THIS MESSAGE IS A
SUMMATION OF POLOFFS' SEPTEMBER 23-26 TRIP TO KISHINEV
TO ASSESS POLITICAL CONDITIONS IN MOLDOVA SINCE IT
DECLARED INDEPENDENCE IN AUGUST; A DETAILED REPORT
FOLLOWS SEPTEL. END SUMMARY.

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE

REVIEW AUTHORITY: ROBERT 0 HOMME
DATE/CASE ID: 17 SEP 2009 200802198 UNCLASSIFIED
 UNCLASSIFIED
3. MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS, B6
OUTLINED TO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~'OR RETURNING
THE REBELLIOUS TRANS-DNIESTER AND GAGAUZ "REPUBLICS"
TO KISHINEV'S CONTROL. FIRST, THE GOVERNMENT HAS
DISTANCED ITSELF FROM CALLS FOR UNIFICATION WITH
ROMANIA, ENACTED CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION AND
MODERATED ITS LANGUAGE LAWS TO REASSURE ITS NATIONAL
MINORITIES, AND RENOUNCED FORCE AS A MEANS OF ENDING
THE RAILWAY BLOCKADE AT TIRASPOL AND BENDERY
(REFTEL). IT IS ALSO FORGING AHEAD WITH REFORM OF ITS
ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE HOPE OF ERODING SUPPORT
FOR THE TRANS-DNIESTER LEADERSHIP--MEMBERS OF WHICH IN
A SEPTEMBER 24 MEETING WITH POLOFFS MADE LITTLE EFFORT
TO CONCEAL THEIR CONTINUED ADHERENCE TO NEO-STALINIST
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC BELIEFS.

4. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE MOLDOVAN AUTHORITIES HAVE

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PAGE 03 MOSCOW 27879 01 OF 02 281012Z

WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS INVITED HIGH-LEVEL
DELEGATIONS--INCLUDING AN EMISSARY FROM RSFSR
PRESIDENT YEL'TSIN, MEMBERS OF THE USSR'S MILITARY
REFORM COll®1ITTEE, AND AN OFFICIAL DELEGATION FROM
TURKEY--ON FACT-FINDING MISSIONS TO TIRASPOL AND
KOMRAT, THE TRANS-DNIESTER AND GAGAUZ "CAPITALS"
RESPECTIVELY. THE MOLDOVANS WERE GRATIFIED THAT BOTH
THE RUSSIAN AND TURKISH DELEGATIONS PUBLICLY ACQUITTED
THEM OF HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS AGAINST THE MINORITY
POPULATIONS. THEY NOW HOPE THAT THE USSR AND RSFSR
GOVERNMENTS WILL TAKE MEASURES TO CONTROL THE
TIRASPOL-BASED SOVIET ARMY UNITS, WHICH THE MOLDOVANS
BELIEVE COVERTLY SUPPORT, AND INDEED ARM, TRANS-
DNIESTER. THEY FURTHER HOPE THAT RUSSIA WILL MOVE
QUICKLY TO RECOGNIZE MOLDOVAN INDEPENDENCE AND THAT
RECOGNITION FROM WESTERN NAT.IONS (ESPECIALLY THE U. S. )
WILL FOLLOW.

5. SUCH EFFORTS NOTWITHSTANDING, THE SITUATION

REMAINS PRECARIOUS. ALTHOUGH LIFE IN KISHINEV TO ALL
OUTWARD APPEARANCES PROCEEDS NORMALLY, SPORADIC
VIOLENCE OCCURS NOT THIRTY MILES AWAY--MOST RECENTLY
IN DUBASSARY WHERE CLASHES SEPTEMBER 25 BETWEEN RIVAL
MOLDOVAN AND TRANS-DNIESTER DEMONSTRATORS LEFT THREE

UNCLASSIFIED
PEOPLE INJURED. (MOLDOVAN OFFICIAL~~E'A~'FIED
INCIDENTS AS GROUNDS FOR REFUSING POLOFFS' REQUEST TO
VISIT TlEASPOL.) MOREOVER, PAN-ROMANIAN NATIONALIST
MOVEMENTS LIKE THE POPULAR FRONT, WHICH DEMANDS
IMMEDIATE UNION WITH ROMANIA, WIELD CONSIDERABLE
INFLUENCE WITHIN THE MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT--TO THE
CONSTERNATION OF MOLDOVA'S MINORITY PEOPLES. SUCH
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PAGE 04 MOSCOW 27879 01 OF 02 281012Z

TENSIONS, AND WITH THEM THE RISKS OF A WIDER
CONFRONT.ATION, ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS THE
DECEMBER B PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION APPROACHES.
ACCORDING TO MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS, THE RACE WILL
PROBABLY PIT INCUMBENT PRESIDENT SNEGUR, WHO BACKS THE
CURRENT CAUTIOUS APPROACH, AGAINST A CANDIDATE
FAVORING MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARDS UNIFICATION, SUCH
AS MOSANU.

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ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-OO ADS-OO AID-01 AMA!)-01 ClAE-OO C-01 DODE-OO

ANHR-01 EB-01 CSCE-01 HA-09 H-01 INRE-OO INR-01
IO-19 LAB-04 L-03 MOFM-01 MOF-03 M-01 NRRC-01
NS.AE-OONSCE-OO OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-01 PRS-01
P-Ol RP-10 SCT-03 SIL-01 SNP-01 SP-01 SR-01
SS-Ol STR-1B TRSE-OO T-01 USIE-OO /094W
------------------9A3EEC 281013Z /38
P 281016Z SEP 91
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6725

UNCLASSIFIED
AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST PRIORITY UNCLASSIFIED
INFO MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

CON F IDE N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 MOSCOW 27879

DEPT FOR P, C, sip, HA, EUR/SOV

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, PHUM, SOCI, RO, UR
SUBJECT: MOLDOVA: A FRAGILE STABILITY ENDURES, BUT
FOR HOW LONG?

6. COMMENT: WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE PRESIDENTIAL

BALLOT, NO QUICK SOLUTION TO THE STANDOFF BETWEEN
MOLDOVA .AND THE REBEL REBUBLICS APPEARS IN SIGHT. IT
IS, FURTHERMORE, NOT YET CLEAR WHETHER THE MOLDOVAN
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PAGE 02 MOSCOW 27879 02 OF 02 281013Z

GOVERNMENT'S PRESENT LOW-KEY POLICY CAN WITHSTAND THE
BUFFETS NOT ONLY OF RADICALS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
UNIFICATION QUESTION IN MOLDOVA, BUT OF EVENTS IN
ROMANIA AS WELL. AS THE POST-INDEPENDENCE EUPHORIA
WEARS OFF, THE MOLDOVANS ARE BEGINNING TO REALIZE THAT
THE SHIP OF THEIR FLEDGLING STATE MUST YET STEER PAST
SOME VERY ROCKY SHOALS. END COMMENT.
STRAUSS

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UNCLASSIFIED