Estimated Steel Production

2008--2013
2008

www.analySEEs.co.uk
23 April 2008
Introduction

Weakening Economy

Political Unrest
i.e. Iraq War, USA Election, Tibet protest

Economical Power Shift
Economic Overview

Growth Rate Of Real GDP

Effects Of Crude and Gold Prices In The
International Scenario

Global Trade Imbalances Due To Moderate
Oil Prices

Monetary Policy Formulations Over The
Globe
Global Steel Demand

Demand grow by 6,8% a year over 2007

and 2008

double--digit demand from BRIC
double

BRIC : leading growth Average 11% Till
2013
 Global Steel Demand
(million tonnes; 2004 = forecast)
1000
7% pa
900
800 2% pa
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 04 (F)
Source: IISI
 Chinese Steel Demand
(million tonnes: 2004 = forecast)
300
27% pa
250

200
1% pa

150

100

50

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: IISI
Production Forecast 56
Countries

BRIC

The original Tigers, South Korea and Taiwan

ASEAN Countries

EMEA
Future Steel Making
Process

Currently produced in the blast furnace

Highly energy and capital intensive

The process uses coke that requires special
coals

Coke making process has significant
environmental concern
Forecast

Global steel consumption will increase to over

1.8 billion tonnes by 2013, a rise of 71% on
2007’s level

Demand for steel in North America and
Western Europe is expected to decline before
picking up from the third quarter of 2009

Forecast Continued
Forecast

Demand for steel remains strong in

emerging economies

Asia, led by China, will continue as the
world’s largest consumer of steel

China’s global consumption rising from 32%
in 2006 to 35% in 2013

Forecast Continued
Forecast

Tighter capital markets over the next two

years could lead to further consolidation in
the steel industry as smaller, highly
leveraged firms become vulnerable to
acquisition by larger financially stronger
players

Forecast Continued
Forecast

The focus regions of the 2008 report are the

Balkans and Africa. Of these countries,
Morocco is expected to show the fastest
growth

Egypt is likely to consolidate its position as
Africa’s largest steel consumer, with finished
steel demand expected to exceed 7.5 million
tonnes in 2013
Source of Information

Steel Business Briefing Ltd

www.steelbb.com

International Iron and Steel Institute

www.worldsteel.org