250,000.

00

Year Value
1980 53,473.75 200,000.00 f(x) = 509.289507559526 x² − 2031841.38098
f(x) = 7863.09678787835 x − 1557564
1981 57,830.90 R² = 0.999139648921558
R² = 0.973015511916659
1982 58,469.39
1983 63,410.00 150,000.00
1984 67,957.86
1985 70,321.13 100,000.00
1986 74,515.44
1987 78,464.76
1988 83,451.73 50,000.00
1989 91,033.08
1990 99,227.49 0.00
1991 108,086.31 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20
1992 115,890.69 250,000.00
1993 124,297.49
1994 133,669.61
200,000.00
1995 144,892.98
1996 155,966.85
1997 163,297.08 150,000.00
1998 141,861.52
1999 142,983.84
100,000.00
2000 150,018.67
2001 155,484.68
2002 162,480.55 50,000.00
2003 170,247.78
2004 178,812.73
2005 188,974.61 0.00
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20
2006 199,337.19 10,362.58
2007 211,906.68 12,569.49
2008 37,126,988.80
9.289507559526 x² − 2031841.38098798
f(x) = 7863.09678787835 x + 2026674266.24187
x − 15575640.4927264
9139648921558
R² = 0.973015511916659

Column D
Polynomial
(Column D)
Linear
(Column D)

8 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Colum
nD

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

METODE SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (n=5)

No Tahun Jumlah Forecast

1 1980 53,473.75
2 1981 57,830.90
PERAMALAN
250,000.00
3 1982 58,469.39
4 1983 63,410.00
5 1984 67,957.86 60228.38
6 1985 70,321.13 63597.86 200,000.00
7 1986 74,515.44 66934.76
8 1987 78,464.76 70933.84
9 1988 83,451.73 74942.18 150,000.00
10 1989 91,033.08 79557.23
11 1990 99,227.49 85338.5
12 1991 108,086.31 92052.67
100,000.00
13 1992 115,890.69 99537.86
14 1993 124,297.49 107707
15 1994 133,669.61 116234.3
16 1995 144,892.98 125367.4 50,000.00
17 1996 155,966.85 134943.5
18 1997 163,297.08 144424.8
19 1998 141,861.52 147937.6 0.00
20 1999 142,983.84 149800.5
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
21 2000 150,018.67 150825.6 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
22 2001 155,484.68 150729.2
23 2002 162,480.55 150565.9
24 2003 170,247.78 156243.1
25 2004 178,812.73 163408.9
26 2005 188,974.61 171200.1
27 2006 199,337.19 179970.6
28 2007 211,906.68 189855.8
29 2008 189855.8 193777.4
30 2009 193777.4 196770.3
31 2010 196770.34 198329.5
32 2011 198329.48 198127.9
33 2012 198127.94 195372.2
34 2013 195372.19 196475.5
35 2014 196475.47 197015.1
 PERAMALAN

Jumla
h

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
METODE EKSPONENSIAL SMOOTING

No Tahun Jumlah Forecast

1 1980 53,473.75 PERAMALAN
2 1981 57,830.90 53,473.75 250,000.00
3 1982 58,469.39 56959.47
4 1983 63,410.00 58167.41
5 1984 67,957.86 62361.48
200,000.00
6 1985 70,321.13 66838.58
7 1986 74,515.44 69624.62
8 1987 78,464.76 73537.28
9 1988 83,451.73 77479.26 150,000.00
10 1989 91,033.08 82257.24
11 1990 99,227.49 89277.91
12 1991 108,086.31 97237.57
100,000.00
13 1992 115,890.69 105916.6
14 1993 124,297.49 113895.9
15 1994 133,669.61 122217.2
16 1995 144,892.98 131379.1 50,000.00
17 1996 155,966.85 142190.2
18 1997 163,297.08 153211.5
19 1998 141,861.52 161280 0.00
20 1999 142,983.84 145745.2 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
21 2000 150,018.67 143536.1 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 2
22 2001 155,484.68 148722.2
23 2002 162,480.55 154132.2
24 2003 170,247.78 160810.9
25 2004 178,812.73 168360.4
26 2005 188,974.61 176722.3
27 2006 199,337.19 186524.1
28 2007 211,906.68 196774.6
29 2008 196774.58 208880.3
30 2009 208880.26 199195.7
31 2010 199195.72 206943.4
32 2011 206943.35 200745.2
33 2012 200745.24 205703.7
34 2013 205703.73 201736.9
35 2014 201736.94 204910.4
 PERAMALAN

Jumla
h

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
METODE EKSPONENSIAL SMOOTING WITH TREN

No Tahun Jumlah Ft Tt Forecast

1 1980 53,473.75 0.00 0.00
2 1981 57,830.90 46264.72 9252.944 0.00 250,000.00
3 1982 58,469.39 57879.04 9725.22 55,517.66
4 1983 63,410.00 64248.85 9054.138 67,604.26
5 1984 67,957.86 69026.89 8198.917 73,302.99 200,000.00
6 1985 70,321.13 71702.06 7094.169 77,225.80
7 1986 74,515.44 75371.6 6409.242 78,796.23
8 1987 78,464.76 79127.98 5878.669 81,780.84 150,000.00
9 1988 83,451.73 83762.71 5629.883 85,006.65
10 1989 91,033.08 90704.98 5892.36 89,392.60
11 1990 99,227.49 98701.46 6313.184 96,597.34 100,000.00
12 1991 108,086.31 107472 6804.65 105,014.64
13 1992 115,890.69 115567.9 7062.9 114,276.63
50,000.00
14 1993 124,297.49 123964.1 7329.574 122,630.78
15 1994 133,669.61 133194.4 7709.716 131,293.72
16 1995 144,892.98 144095.2 8347.929 140,904.15
0.00
17 1996 155,966.85 155262.1 8911.722 152,443.14
80 9 82 98 4 9 86 9 88 9 90 9 9
18 1997 163,297.08 163472.4 8771.442 164,173.83 19 1 1 1 1 1 1
19 1998 141,861.52 147938 3910.266 172,243.87
20 1999 142,983.84 144756.7 2491.959 151,848.26
21 2000 150,018.67 149464.7 2935.157 147,248.68
22 2001 155,484.68 154867.7 3428.733 152,399.83
23 2002 162,480.55 161643.7 4098.19 158,296.44
24 2003 170,247.78 169346.6 4819.128 165,741.92
25 2004 178,812.73 177883.3 5562.647 174,165.74
26 2005 188,974.61 187868.9 6447.228 183,445.98
27 2006 199,337.19 198333 7250.601 194,316.11
28 2007 211,906.68 210642.1 8262.298 205,583.58
29 2008 205,583.58 208247.7 6130.972 218,904.36
30 2009 218,904.36 217999.2 6855.077 214,378.70
31 2010 214,378.70 216473.8 5178.981 224,854.30
32 2011 224,854.30 224214 5691.221 221,652.80
33 2012 221,652.80 223303.3 4370.834 229,905.22
34 2013 229,905.22 229459 4727.81 227,674.12
35 2014 227,674.12 228976.7 3685.779 234,186.81
 Jumlah
00

00

00

Jumla
h
00

00

00
80 9 82 98 4 9 86 9 88 9 90 9 92 99 4 996 9 98 00 0 00 2 0 04 0 06 00 8 0 10 0 12 0 14
19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
No Tahun SMA ES ESWT 250000
1 2008 189855.8 196774.6 205583.6
2 2009 193777.4 208880.3 218904.4
3 2010 196770.3 199195.7 214378.7 200000
4 2011 198329.5 206943.4 224854.3
5 2012 198127.9 200745.2 221652.8 150000
6 2013 195372.2 205703.7 229905.2
7 2014 196475.5 201736.9 227674.1
100000

50000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 SMA
ES
ESW
T

2012 2013 2014