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Exploring The Limits of The Tech Nology S-Curve. Part II: Archite Ctural Technologies
Exploring The Limits of The Tech Nology S-Curve. Part II: Archite Ctural Technologies
成熟貧頸
快速成長
剛開始不好用
時間
Disk drive 的歷史 ~
年代 1950 1960 1980 1990
規格 14” 8” 5.25” 3.5”
主要 Mainframe Minicomputer Desktop NB
市場
非主流切換了 S 曲線的圖案
Architectural Technologies indeed follow
S-curve pattern of improvement.
A Different S-Curve Model of Architectural Innovation
The new technology (2) is deployed in a new application (B) wherein
performance is defined differently than it had been in the established
market, Application A.
When this occurs, the new technology invades the original market, swiftly
substituting for the old.
Disk drive 的歷史 ~
30-100mb
40% 以下
100-
300mb
企業經理人如何思考創新方向 ?
元件技術創新 :
一個新技術產品的開發,到了成熟階段科技就會面臨本質或實體的限制,
必須花費更長的時間,投注更多的工程努力,才能獲得提升。
Component technologies
vs
Architectural Technologies
結構技術創新 :
利用已被市場證明的元件技術創新 , 不依慣例的衍生相關聯技術的低階改
善 , 突破原先在位者的市場。
Architectural Technologies
Preliminary evidence suggests that this frame
work, in which the new architecture
(1) redefines the functionality of a product or proc
ess,
(2) is initially deployed in a new or remote market
segment, and
(3) invades established markets after reaching a l
evel of commercial scale and maturity in that
new market, may be a more accurate descript
ion of processes of architectural innovation in
a variety of industries.
結構性技術創新取代市場地位的例子 ~
蒸氣船 VS 風力船
乳膠泡沫 VS 聚氨酯泡沫
鋼鐵聚合技術 VS 切割技術
農業之花卉產業 ~
重要的技術創新為 ~
元件技術創新為 ~
結構性技術創新 ~
總結