BMA Universe

Current
Sector Company Name Ticker BMA Upside / Rec Avg daily vol (mn) O/S Free Float Market Cap P/E (x) EPS (PKR/sh)
Price
Fair Value 15-Dec downside sh USD mn sh mn sh % PKR mn USD mn 2008A 2009F 2010 2008A 2009F 2010F
1 Banks MCB Bank MCB 249 217 14% ADD 3.1 6.5 691 380 55% 150,156 1,799 9.8x 9.6x 8.4x 22.2 22.7 25.8

2 Banks National Bank NBP 91 73 24% BUY 5.9 5.6 1,076 248 23% 78,941 946 5.1x 5.7x 5.1x 14.4 12.9 14.5

3 Banks Habib Bank HBL 119 122 -3% NEUTRAL 0.6 0.8 911 68 8% 111,327 1,334 11.1x 8.2x 6.7x 11.0 14.9 18.1

4 Banks United Bank UBL 65 59 10% ADD 3.0 1.8 1,113 334 30% 65,783 788 7.9x 7.6x 6.5x 7.5 7.8 9.1

5 Banks Bank Alfalah BAFL UR 14 NA UR 6.3 1.0 1,349 540 40% 18,969 227 5.5x NA NA 2.6 NA NA

6 Cement Lucky Cement LUCK 87 65 35% BUY 4.8 3.8 323 171 53% 20,906 250 7.8x 4.5x 5.0x 8.3 14.2 12.9

7 Cement DG Khan Cement DGKC 39 29 34% BUY 7.5 2.8 304 180 59% 8,841 106 NM 16.8x 9.4x (0.2) 1.7 3.1

8 Cement Maple Leaf Cement MLCF UR 4 NA UR 2.1 0.1 372 160 43% 1,340 16 NM NM NA (1.8) (2.6) NA

9 Cement Attock Cement ACPL UR 53 NA UR 0.2 0.2 87 14 16% 4,568 55 10.5x 3.1x NA 5.0 17.2 NA

10 ChemicalsICI Pakistan ICI 160 163 -2% NEUTRAL 0.6 0.9 139 9 7% 22,565 270 10.9x 11.5x 10.5x 14.9 14.2 15.5

11 E & P Oil & Gas Development OGDC 132 108 22% BUY 8.6 8.5 4,301 645 15% 465,575 5,578 9.4x 8.4x 8.4x 11.5 12.9 12.9

12 E & P Pakistan Petroleum PPL 218 183 19% BUY 2.8 6.2 996 149 15% 182,413 2,185 9.3x 6.6x 8.2x 19.8 27.8 22.2

13 E & P Pakistan Oil Fields POL 282 225 26% BUY 3.6 7.6 237 106 45% 53,123 636 6.2x 9.5x 8.2x 36.4 23.8 27.5

14 Fertilizer Fauji Fertilizer FFC 113 109 4% NEUTRAL 2.1 2.4 679 373 55% 73,905 885 11.3x 9.1x 8.6x 9.6 12.0 12.7

15 Fertilizer Engro Chemicals ENGRO 219 182 20% BUY 2.9 5.3 298 134 45% 54,294 650 12.8x 16.6x 10.4x 14.2 11.0 17.5

16 Fertilizer Fauji Fertilizer Bin QasimFFBL 35 25 39% BUY 3.9 0.9 934 327 35% 23,456 281 8.1x 6.8x 6.9x 3.1 3.7 3.6

17 OMC Pakistan State Oil PSO 358 296 21% BUY 1.6 4.5 172 79 46% 50,789 608 3.6x NM 7.5x 81.9 (39.1) 39.3

18 OMC Attock Petroleum APL UR 342 NA UR 0.2 0.8 58 8 14% 19,715 236 7.5x 6.4x NA 45.9 53.5 NA

19 Power Hub Power HUBC 43 32 35% BUY 2.7 0.8 1,157 521 45% 36,450 437 14.0x 9.6x 7.4x 2.2 3.3 4.3

20 Tec & ComPakistan Telecom PTC 25 17 44% BUY 6.3 1.4 3,774 415 11% 65,366 783 NM 7.1x 6.1x (0.7) 2.4 2.8

21 Tec & ComNetsol Technologies NETSOL 42 28 50% BUY 1.5 0.4 78 24 31% 2,183 26 3.1x 7.4x 3.7x 9.1 3.8 7.6

22 Textiles Nishat Mills NML UR 70 NA UR 4.0 2.2 242 113 46% 17,078 205 2.9x 13.5x NA 24.2 5.2 NA

23 Refinery National Refinery NRL 268 187 44% BUY 0.1 0.2 80 40 50% 14,933 179 2.5x 9.7x 4.3x 75.1 19.2 43.8

24 Refinery Attock Refinery ATRL 144 137 5% ADD 1.8 2.9 85 30 35% 11,666 140 1.9x 11.5x 5.5x 72.1 11.9 24.9

25 Auto Indus Motors INDU 288 202 43% BUY 0.1 0.2 79 8 10% 15,841 190 6.9x 11.4x 5.2x 29.1 17.6 38.4

26 Auto Pak Suzuki Motor PSMC 149 90 65% BUY 0.1 0.1 82 7 8% 7,432 89 11.9x 23.4x 4.8x 7.6 3.9 18.6

27 MiscellanePace Pakistan PACE 10 6 73% BUY 2.5 0.2 279 187 67% 1,581 19 1.1x 3.6x 1.4x 5.0 1.6 4.1

Universe 28.3% 19,895 5,269 26% 1,579,197 18,919 8.6x 8.7x 7.5x
 BM

Current
Sector Company Name Ticker BMA EPS Growth (%) DPS Div Yield (%) P/B (x) BVPS (PKR/sh) ROE (%)
Price
Fair Value 15-Dec 2008A 2009F 2010F 2008A 2009F 2010F 2008A 2009F 2010F 2008A 2009F 2010F 2008A 2009F 2010F 2008A 2009F 2010F
1 Banks MCB Bank MCB 249 217 1% 2% 14% 10.5 10.0 12.0 4.8% 4.6% 5.5% 2.6x 2.2x 2.0x 84.6 96.8 108.9 26% 23% 24%

2 Banks National Bank NBP 91 73 -19% -10% 12% 5.4 6.5 6.5 7.4% 8.9% 8.9% 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 95.2 101.6 108.3 15% 13% 13%

3 Banks Habib Bank HBL 119 122 24% 36% 22% 4.6 5.2 4.0 3.7% 4.3% 3.3% 1.7x 1.5x 1.2x 71.4 84.1 97.9 15% 18% 19%

4 Banks United Bank UBL 65 59 -10% 4% 17% 2.3 NA NA 3.8% NA NA 1.5x 1.2x 1.1x 39.4 49.9 56.0 19% 16% 16%

5 Banks Bank Alfalah BAFL UR 14 11% NA NA - NA NA 0.0% NA NA 1.0x NA NA 14.7 NA NA 17% NA NA

6 Cement Lucky Cement LUCK 87 65 5% 72% -9% - 4.0 2.0 0.0% 6.2% 3.1% 1.1x 0.9x 0.8x 57.7 71.9 82.1 14% 20% 16%

7 Cement DG Khan Cement DGKC 39 29 NM NM 80% - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 98.9 68.0 85.3 NM 3% 4%

8 Cement Maple Leaf Cement MLCF UR 4 NM NM NA - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2x NA NA 22.5 NA NA NM NA NA

9 Cement Attock Cement ACPL UR 53 -45% 243% NA 1.5 5.0 NA 2.8% 9.5% NA 1.3x NA NA 40.8 NA NA 12% NA NA

10 ChemicalsICI Pakistan ICI 160 163 16% -5% 10% 6.5 6.5 7.0 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x 98.3 103.7 109.0 15% 14% 14%

11 E & P Oil & Gas Development OGDC 132 108 9% 12% 0% 9.5 8.3 8.4 8.8% 7.6% 7.7% 4.2x 3.7x 3.6x 25.7 29.3 30.1 45% 44% 43%

12 E & P Pakistan Petroleum PPL 218 183 18% 41% -20% 11.7 10.8 13.7 6.4% 5.9% 7.5% 4.2x 2.9x 2.4x 43.8 62.9 76.6 45% 44% 29%

13 E & P Pakistan Oil Fields POL 282 225 45% -35% 16% 13.3 18.0 20.0 5.9% 8.0% 8.9% 2.1x 1.9x 1.7x 107.3 119.5 134.0 34% 20% 21%

14 Fertilizer Fauji Fertilizer FFC 113 109 22% 25% 6% 11.0 12.0 12.7 10.1% 11.0% 11.7% 6.0x 6.2x 6.2x 18.1 17.5 17.7 53% 69% 72%

15 Fertilizer Engro Chemicals ENGRO 219 182 34% -23% 59% 4.0 5.0 6.0 2.2% 2.7% 3.3% 2.4x 1.9x 1.6x 77.5 97.8 112.3 18% 11% 16%

16 Fertilizer Fauji Fertilizer Bin QasimFFBL 35 25 14% 20% -2% 2.9 3.5 3.0 11.4% 13.9% 11.9% 2.2x 2.2x 2.0x 11.2 11.4 12.5 28% 33% 29%

17 OMC Pakistan State Oil PSO 358 296 200% NM NM 23.5 5.0 24.0 7.9% 1.7% 8.1% 1.6x 2.1x 1.9x 180.5 141.2 155.7 45% NM 25%

18 OMC Attock Petroleum APL UR 342 53% 17% NA 16.7 25.0 4.9% 7.3% 0.0% 3.6x NA NA 96.1 NA NA 48% NA NA

19 Power Hub Power HUBC 43 32 -2% 45% 31% 2.2 3.4 4.0 6.8% 10.6% 12.7% 1.3x 1.3x 1.2x 24.6 24.9 25.3 9% 13% 17%

20 Tec & ComPakistan Telecom PTC 25 17 NM NM 17% - 2.0 2.0 0.0% 11.5% 11.5% 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 25.9 26.3 26.5 NM 9% 11%

21 Tec & ComNetsol Technologies NETSOL 42 28 100% -58% 101% 1.0 - - 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1x 0.9x 0.7x 25.7 30.4 38.0 35% 12% 20%

22 Textiles Nishat Mills NML UR 70 250% -78% NA 2.5 2.0 1.0 3.5% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6x NA NA 110.1 NA NA 22% NA NA

23 Refinery National Refinery NRL 268 187 43% -74% 128% 20.0 12.5 20.0 10.7% 6.7% 10.7% 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x 200.3 220.5 245.9 37% 9% 18%

24 Refinery Attock Refinery ATRL 144 137 721% -83% 109% 6.7 5.0 8.0 4.9% 3.7% 5.8% 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 136.3 150.2 167.1 53% 8% 15%

25 Auto Indus Motors INDU 288 202 -17% -40% 118% 10.5 10.0 15.4 5.2% 5.0% 7.6% 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x 120.1 131.0 159.4 24% 13% 24%

26 Auto Pak Suzuki Motor PSMC 149 90 -77% -49% 382% 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.1% 1.1% 3.3% 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 172.0 174.2 192.9 4% 2% 10%

27 MiscellanePace Pakistan PACE 10 6 181% -69% 162% - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 16.4 18.9 23.0 31% 8% 18%

Universe 3.1% -1.5% 16.6% 6.3% 6.4% 6.9% 1.8x 1.8x 1.6x 42.0 42.8 46.9 22% 21% 22%