CQToday, Tuesday, February 5, 2008 Page 

Economic Forecasts Compared

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth (chain-weighted)
Administration 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%
CBO 1.7 2.8 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.6
Blue Chip 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8
Inflation (CPI)
Administration 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
CBO 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Blue Chip 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Unemployment
Administration 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
CBO 5.1 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.8
Blue Chip 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
3-month Treasury bills
Administration 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1
CBO 3.2 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7
Blue Chip 3.4 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
10-year Treasury notes
Administration 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3
CBO 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Blue Chip 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2

This comparison of the forecasts of the administration, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and
the Blue Chip Consensus of private economists uses annual percentage changes in inflation-adjusted
gross domestic product (GDP) and the consumer price index (CPI). The unemployment rate and the
Treasury bill and note interest rates are annual averages. The administration’s forecast assumes enact-
ment of the president’s budget and therefore is not strictly comparable with those of the CBO and the
Blue Chip Consensus.
SOURCES: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office

Assumptions continued on page 10