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Nick Bucheleres Short Japanese Yen (JPY)
Nick Bucheleres Short Japanese Yen (JPY)
Bucheleres
Short
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
April
7,
2011
Like
every
news
anchor
and
interviewed
blue-‐chip
CEO,
I
will
start
this
pitch
off
with
a
hallow,
lamenting
hope
for
Japan’s
prompt
recovery
from
the
earthquake
that
they
incurred
on
March
11th.
I
will
also
pledge
enduring
moral
support
for
them
in
their
time
of
need.
In
the
meantime,
though,
I
will
highlight
ways
in
which
investors
can
(and
will)
take
advantage
of
the
natural
disaster
that
shook
the
world’s
second
largest
economy
just
a
few
weeks
back.
Following
the
9.0
magnitude
initial
shock
that
rocked
Japan
a
month
ago,
and
the
recent
subsequent
7.1
magnitude
aftershock,
Japan
has
taken
several
measures
in
attempts
to
sequester
a
confident
and
speedy
rebuilding
of
the
island
country
and
recovery
of
their
financial
markets-‐-‐
both
of
which
were
badly
hit
by
the
disaster.
Japanese
Equities
Above
is
a
2-year
chart
of
(from
top
down)
the
Dow
Jones
Industrial
Average,
the
Japanese
Nikkei
225
Average,
and
Toyota
Motors
(TM).
Sharp
sell-offs
for
all
three
of
them
began
on
March
11th
as
the
earthquake
began
to
lay
into
Japan.
The
DJIA
fell
only
slightly,
while
Japanese
markets
retracted
to
previous
major
prices
bases.
A
report
from
CNN
quantified
the
impact
of
the
earthquake
on
Japanese
auto
sales
and
the
economy
as
a
whole:
“New
vehicle
sales
within
the
East
Asian
nation
plunged
37
percent
in
March,
compared
to
data
from
the
same
month
one
year
ago,
according
to
data
from
Japan's
Auto
Dealer
Association.
That's
the
largest
sales
drop
in
March
since
the
industry
trade
group
began
collecting
data
back
in
1968.Toyota
was
hit
the
hardest,
showing
a
46%
drop
in
sales
--
a
decrease
that
did
not
include
its
luxury
Lexus
brand.
Nissan
sales
skidded
38%,
while
Honda
saw
its
figures
slashed
by
more
than
a
quarter
at
28%.
“
Safe-Haven
Flight
Beginning
on
March
11th,
hoards
of
international
currency
flowed
into
the
traditional
safe-‐
haven
asset
that
is
the
Japanese
yen.
Investors
typically
pour
into
the
currency
in
times
of
uncertainty,
as
it
is
hailed
as
one
of
the
world’s
safest
investments,
due
to
the
country’s
economic
and
fiscal
solvency.
The
JPY
has
been
seriously
appreciating
against
the
USD
since
the
US
Federal
Reserve
enacted
its
$600billion
stimulus
package
announced
in
the
summer
of
2010.
Following
the
quake
was
a
swift
appreciation
of
the
safe-haven
Japanese
yen
against
the
US
dollar.
Bank
of
Japan
Intervention
Following
the
rapid
appreciation
of
the
post-‐quake
yen,
the
Bank
of
Japan
decided
to
engage
in
open
market
operations
on
March
14th.
On
the
Monday
after
their
devastating
week,
the
BoJ
injected
more
than
15trillion
yen
(or
$184billion)
of
liquidity
into
the
Japanese
economy.
The
Bank
of
Japan
decided
to
take
such
measures
not
(only)
due
to
the
fallen
Japanese
asset
prices,
but
also
to
offset
the
safe-‐haven
capital
inflows
that
would
dampen
the
Japanese
recovery
efforts.
Japan,
through
massive
accumulation
of
foreign
reserves,
relies
heavily
on
a
depreciated
yen
to
fund
their
export-‐based
economy.
A
strong
JPY
makes
Japanese
exports
less
attractive
(more
expensive)
to
importers
around
the
world,
and
maintaining
their
dominant
international
exporter
status
in
the
world
economy
will
be
vital
for
the
Japanese
economy
to
recover.
Japan’s
debt/GDP
&
national
savings/GDP
ratios
have
recently
crossed
into
negative
territory,
so
the
Bank
of
Japan
must
attempt
to
salvage
whatever
portion
of
lost
gross
domestic
product
that
it
can,
or
else
it
risks
entering
into
insolvent
territory.
The
yen
continued
to
appreciate
against
the
USD
after
the
March
14th
BoJ
decision
until
Wednesday
morning,
when
the
open
market
operations
were
set
into
action.
Since
then,
the
yen
saw
an
immediate
deprecation
against
competing
safe-haven
asset,
the
USD,
and
then
continued
into
a
sustained
movement
in
favor
of
Japan’s
intentions.
The
Bank
of
Japan’s
intervention
is
nearly
one-‐third
of
the
size
of
the
United
States’
equivalent,
referred
to
as
QE2.
Japanese
GDP
($5trillion)
is
more
than
one-‐third
of
the
size
of
the
United
States’
GDP
($14trillion).
The
International
Monetary
Fund
(IMF)
cut
Japan’s
2011
growth
outlook
from
1.6%
to
1.4%.
The
IMF
also
cut
the
United
States’
2011
growth
outlook
from
3%
to
2.8%,
more
favorable
than
their
outlook
for
Japan.
The
Goods
The
above
2-month
chart
of
(from
top
down)
the
EUR/JPY,
USD/JPY,
and
EUR/USD.
The
EUR
advanced
at
a
markedly
faster
pace
than
the
USD
against
the
JPY
following
the
quake.
The
EUR
has
been
appreciating
against
the
USD
for
most
of
2011
due
to
the
imminent
European
rate
hikes
and
the
Bernanke’s
firm
position
on
near
zero
interest
rates.
The
euro’s
strength
comes
as
a
result
of
tomorrow’s
(April
8th)
European
Central
Bank
meeting,
where
ECB
President
Jean-‐Claude
Trichet
will
raise
European
lending
rates
for
solvent
European
Union
countries,
like
Germany,
for
the
first
time
in
almost
three
years.
Tomorrow’s
rate
hike
is
expected
to
be
the
first
of
possibly
three
EU
rate
hikes
before
December
31,
2011.
Long
EUR/JPY
This
is
a
play
off
of
the
Bank
of
Japan’s
pledge
to
maintain
a
depreciated
yen,
in
addition
to
capital
outflows
from
Japan
in
the
wake
of
the
earthquake.
The
euro,
on
the
other
hand,
will
benefit
from
the
capital
inflows
of
rate-‐hungry
investors.
An
imminent
risk
for
this
trade
is
the
possible
default
of
EU
countries
Greece,
Spain,
and
now
Portugal.
The
rate
hike,
though,
does
not
represent
increased
riskiness
of
holding
European
debt,
but
rather
it
is
representative
of
inflation
concerns
off
of
other
thriving
Euro-‐zone
nations.
Germany
is
experiencing
record
economic
growth
and
production,
and
this
growth
is
translating
into
higher
prices
for
the
rest
of
Europeans.
This
trade
would
likely
last
until
more
bearish
news
comes
out
of
the
euro-‐zone.
The
euro
is
testing
2010
highs
against
the
yen.
If
these
levels
are
broken,
the
pair
has
the
potential
to
hit
$127+
in
the
near-term.
Long
USD/JPY
Again
off
of
yen
depreciation,
a
strong
bet
will
be
to
sell
the
yen
against
the
US
dollar.
With
the
Fed’s
QE2
program
coming
to
an
end
next
month,
much
of
the
weakness
of
the
USD
will
be
eliminated
from
nominal
prices.
This
will
dissuade
Bernanke
and
the
Federal
Reserve
from
raising
interest
rates,
as
the
ECB
has
done.
Rising
US
consumer
and
producer
confidence
is
painting
a
promising
picture
for
the
US
economic
recovery,
which
will
boost
US
GDP
and
bolster
confidence
in
the
USD.
For
now,
Japan
and
the
Japanese
yen
are
#losing,
and
this
will
likely
be
the
scenario
for
months
to
come.
This
comes
during
a
time
when
other
developing
nations
(EU,
US)
are
experiencing
a
recovery
from
the
2009
financial
crash,
which
will
appreciate
the
said
currencies
in
the
face
of
Japan’s
goal
to
keep
the
yen
as
low
as
responsibly
possible.
njb