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Tata Chemicals: Strategic Stake in African Urea Project Long Term Positive
Tata Chemicals: Strategic Stake in African Urea Project Long Term Positive
Tata Chemicals
Strategic stake in African Urea Project ‐ Long term positive
Acquired Strategic Stake: Tata Chemicals (TCL) executed binding agreement to
April 13, 2011
acquire 25.1% stake for US$290m (Rs 13b) as strategic investment in stream 1 of
a green‐field port based ammonia urea manufacturing complex in the Republic
Manish Mahawar of Gabon, Africa. Olam International (Olam) and Republic of Gabon (RoG) will
Event Update
manishmahawar@plindia.com hold 62.9% and 12% stake respectively. Before this agreement, Olam and RoG
+91‐22‐66322239
were holding 80% and 20% stake respectively in stream 1.
Project Details: The Project comprises of setting up of 1.3m TPA of Urea (stream
1) with an option to expand into another stream of 1.3m TPA of Urea (stream
2). Execution of stream 1 (2200MTPD Ammonia and 3850MTPD Urea) has
already been started and is expected to be fully operational within 36 months.
Rating Accumulate
Stream 2 (urea facility with matching ammonia capacity) options will be
Price Rs356
evaluated and decision to implement is expected to be taken in next 24 months.
Target Price Rs377
TCL is expected to hold significantly higher stake in stream 2.
Implied Upside 5.9%
Sensex 19,451 Attractive benefits makes stake lucrative: This plant is envisaged to be one of
(Prices as on April 13, 2011) the lowest cost urea manufacturing facilities globally and strategically located
near Gabon’s main sea port. RoG would provide requisite land and sufficient gas
at competitive price for both the streams as per 25 years competitive fixed price
Trading data
natural gas contract. Further, RoG will provide 10year tax holiday after
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 88.9
commencement of production and 10% concessional tax rate thereafter.
Shares o/s (m) 254.8
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 164.3 Target Markets: Lowest cost port based facilities enables efficient and cost
effective material handling and proximity to target markets i.e. Africa, North
America and India. TCL, Olam and RoG would set up sales and marketing joint
venture for selling entire output of the project. TCL, Olam and RoG will hold
Major shareholders
42.5%, 42.5% and 15% equity stake respectively in joint venture. Upto 25% of
Promoters 31.27%
the output would be reserved for Indian Markets for sales through TCL networks
Foreign 13.86%
provide Indian government allows private players to import urea under open
Domestic Inst. 29.17% licence (de‐canalisation). We believe that de‐canalisation is under active
Public & Other 25.70% consideration of government.
Key financials (Y/e March) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
Revenues (Rs m) 92,026 110,409 113,657 119,649
Stock Performance
Growth (%) (28.0) 20.0 2.9 5.3
(%) 1M 6M 12M
EBITDA (Rs m) 17,921 19,706 21,475 23,057
Absolute 9.0 (13.4) 10.2
PAT (Rs m) 6,059 7,163 8,341 9,492
Relative 3.6 (9.4) 0.4
EPS (Rs) 24.9 28.1 32.7 37.2
Growth (%) (9.6) 12.9 16.4 13.8
Net DPS (Rs) 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
Price Performance (RIC: TTCH.BO, BB: TTCH IN)
Source: Company Data; PL Research
(Rs)
500
Profitability & Valuation 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
400 EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 17.8 18.9 19.3
300 RoE (%) 13.1 14.0 14.3 14.7
200 RoCE (%) 9.0 9.2 9.9 10.7
EV / sales (x) 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8
100
EV / EBITDA (x) 7.0 6.0 4.9 4.0
0
PE (x) 14.3 12.7 10.9 9.5
Feb‐11
Dec‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Apr‐10
Apr‐11
Financials outflow, arrangement and benefits: TCL will fund the investment
(US$290m) with the combination of preferential share allotment (US$82m) to
Tata Sons, sale of investment (US$68m) over the next three years and balance
(US$140m) through debt funding. We expect that TCL would dilute ~4%
additional equity to Tata Sons considering share price of Rs350/share. Further,
we believe that TCL net debt/equity was quite comfortable to 0.69x as on Dec
31, 2011. According to management, this strategic investment is a value
accretive project with expected yearly EBITDA of US$300m to US$350m per
stream (TCL would share 25.1%). Hence, EBITDA of US$75‐88m would come to
TCL once stream 1 get operational. Olam is expecting EBITDA margin of 75%
and PAT margin of 50% from this project. Deal would value the stream 1 at
EV/EBITDA of 4x. We believe that payback period for stream 1 would be ~6years.
About Olam: Olam is a listed Singapore based company. It is leading global
integrated supply chain manager and processor of agricultural products and
food ingredients with direct presence in 65 countries. Olam is amongst top 40
largest listed companies in Singapore in terms of market capitalisation.
About RoG: Gabon is situated is West Central Africa sharing borders with
Equatorial Guinea to the northwest, Cameroon to the north, and with the
Republic of Congo to the East and South. The country is blessed with a wide
range of natural resources including oil, gas, minerals and ores, and forestry
resources. Gabon is political and social stable country. It has a free market
economy and encourages foreign investment.
Conference Call: TCL is holding conference call to provide further clarity on this
investment on April 13, 2011 at 2PM. Dial in numbers are +91 22 3065 0122/+91
22 6629 0301.
April 13, 2011 2
Tata Chemicals
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Y/e March 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
Net Revenue 92,026 110,409
113,657 119,649 Shareholder's Funds 47,085 55,592 61,250 68,060
Raw Material Expenses — — — — Total Debt 49,937 44,937 37,937 30,937
Gross Profit 92,026 110,409 113,657 119,649 Other Liabilities 3,682 3,682 3,682 3,682
Employee Cost — — — — Total Liabilities 100,705 104,211 102,870 102,679
Other Expenses 74,105 90,703 92,183 96,592 Net Fixed Assets 38,310 35,271 31,565 27,228
EBITDA 17,921 19,706 21,475 23,057 Goodwill 53,247 53,247 53,247 53,247
Depr. & Amortization 4,468 4,738 4,806 4,837 Investments 5,577 5,577 5,577 5,577
Net Interest 3,932 3,595 3,035 2,475 Net Current Assets 3,572 10,116 12,481 16,628
Other Income 785 — — — Cash & Equivalents 11,589 16,941 22,600 30,314
Profit before Tax 10,306 11,373 13,633 15,745 Other Current Assets 26,071 32,772 33,753 35,416
Total Tax 3,026 4,209 5,292 6,253 Current Liabilities 34,089 39,597 43,871 49,102
Profit after Tax 7,279 7,163 8,341 9,492 Other Assets — — — —
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. 1,220 — — — Total Assets 100,705 104,211 102,870 102,679
Adj. PAT 6,059 7,163 8,341 9,492
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 243.3 254.8 254.8 254.8
EPS (Rs.) 24.9 28.1 32.7 37.2
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Y/e March Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11
C/F from Operations 15,965 10,709 16,441 17,897 Net Revenue 25,405 30,291 29,057 26,477
C/F from Investing 979 (1,700) (1,100) (500) EBITDA 5,375 4,563 4,562 4,954
C/F from Financing (15,254) (3,657) (9,682) (9,682) % of revenue 21.2 15.1 15.7 18.7
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 1,691 5,352 5,658 7,715 Depr. & Amortization 1,091 1,095 1,115 1,438
Opening Cash 9,899 11,589 16,941 22,600 Net Interest 889 988 802 916
Closing Cash 11,589 16,941 22,600 30,314 Other Income — — — —
FCFF 11,439 9,009 15,341 17,397 Profit before Tax 3,395 2,480 2,645 2,600
FCFE (1,462) 4,009 8,341 10,397 Total Tax 673 655 788 693
Profit after Tax 2,337 1,251 1,417 1,907
Adj. PAT 2,160 1,271 1,646 1,907
Key Financial Metrics Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Y/e March 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
Growth Inorganic Chemical Sales 54,351.3 53,673.9 56,215.4 58,458.5
Revenue (%) (28.0) 20.0 2.9 5.3 Fertiliser Sales 37,846.1 56,734.9 57,441.8 61,190.1
EBITDA (%) (10.9) 10.0 9.0 7.4
PAT (%) (6.5) 18.2 16.4 13.8 Inorganic Chemical EBIT % 17.8 15.9 16.9 17.4
EPS (%) (9.6) 12.9 16.4 13.8 Fertiliser EBIT % 9.9 11.3 12.4 13.2
Profitability Source: Company Data, PL Research.
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.5 17.8 18.9 19.3
PAT Margin (%) 6.6 6.5 7.3 7.9
RoCE (%) 9.0 9.2 9.9 10.7
RoE (%) 13.1 14.0 14.3 14.7
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity 0.8 0.5 0.3 —
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) — — — —
Valuation
PER (x) 14.3 12.7 10.9 9.5
P / B (x) 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV / EBITDA (x) 7.0 6.0 4.9 4.0
EV / Sales (x) 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 29.4 37.0 38.8 39.7
Other Inc / PBT 7.6 — — —
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.2
FCFE / PAT (24.1) 56.0 100.0 109.5
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
April 13, 2011 3
Tata Chemicals
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
60% 55.8%
50%
% of Total Coverage
40%
29.7%
30%
20%
12.3%
10%
2.2%
0%
Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
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April 13, 2011 4