SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TRAFFIC SURVEY AND ANALYSIS.................................................................................................. 3

GENERAL .................................................................................................................................................. 3
DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT ROAD ..................................................................................................... 3
FACT SHEET OF PROJECT STATE (TAMIL NADU) IS PRESENTED BELOW. .................................................. 4
INFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGY, IT DEVELOPMENT IN PROJECT INFLUENCE AREA ............................. 4
HOMOGENEOUS SECTIONS WITH TOLL LENGTH AND STRUCTURES .................................. 4
ROAD NETWORK STUDY ............................................................................................................... 7
TRAFFIC SURVEYS........................................................................................................................... 8
ORIGIN AND DESTINATION SURVEY ............................................................................................. 11
TRAFFIC GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS ......................................................................................... 14
Trend Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 14
Net State Domestic Product- Population- Per Capita Domestic Product (Tamil Nadu) .................. 14
Traffic Demand Elasticity Estimation ................................................................................................ 15
Projected Growth Rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP ...................................................................... 17
TRAFFIC PROJECTION ......................................................................................................................... 20
MILLION STANDARD AXLE (MSA) CALCULATION FOR PAVEMENT DESIGN ................... 21

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Traffic count on NH 4 - Road to Chennai ............................................................................. 7
Table 2: Traffic count on routes originating from Krishnagiri ........................................................... 8
Table 3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) - Tolled Traffic ......................................................................... 9
Table 4: Seasonal Correction Factor...................................................................................................... 10
Table 5: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) - Tolled Traffic ...................................................... 10
Table 6: Traffic Zones – OD Survey ...................................................................................................... 11
Table 7: Major Origin Destination Pairs............................................................................................... 11
Table 8: Major Commodity movement on project road .................................................................... 12
Table 9 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in No.s) ........................... 13
Table 10 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in % age) ....................... 14
Table 11: Registered Motor Vehicles in Tamil Nadu (2003-2008) (In Thousands)....................... 14
Table 12: Population - NSDP- PCDP .................................................................................................... 14
Table 13: Elasticity Values...................................................................................................................... 17
Table 14: Forecasted growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP ...................................................... 18
Table 15: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic - Tamil Nadu State ....................................................... 19

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Table 16: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic – Karnataka State ......................................................... 19

Table 17: Vehicles – Registration Plate ................................................................................................. 19
Table 18A: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Most Likely) ................................... 20
Table 18B: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Optimistic) ...................................... 20
Table 18C: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Pessimistic) ..................................... 20
Table 19 : Traffic Projection - Toll Plaza at km 87+500 ..................................................................... 20
Table 20: VDF Values adopted in MSA calculations.......................................................................... 21
Table 21: Million Standard Axle Calculation. ..................................................................................... 21

LIST OF FIGURES
Fig 1: Fig 1: NHDP map – Status as on Jan 31 2010 .............................................................................. 5
Fig 2: Location Map of project road, HOSUR - KRISHNAGIRI ......................................................... 5
Fig 3: Route diverting from Krishnagiri ................................................................................................ 7
Fig 4: Snaps showing survey in progress .............................................................................................. 9
Fig 5: Major commodity movement along project road .................................................................... 13
Fig. 6: Elasticity by Graphical Extrapolation Method ........................................................................ 17
Fig. 7: Forecast of growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP ........................................................... 18

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

TRAFFIC SURVEY AND ANALYSIS

GENERAL
The project Road, Hosur to Krishnagiri, is proposed to be developed on Design, Build, Finance,
Operate and Transfer (DBFOT) basis. The major source of revenue for the project developer
shall be the toll collection. For making the proper assessment of traffic volume, base year traffic
and its projection, consultant, Louis Berger Consulting Pvt. Ltd. has carried out the necessary
traffic surveys and investigations.
DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT ROAD
Project road corridor Hosur Krishnagiri is section of NH-7 from km 33.130 to km 93.000 in the
State of Tamil Nadu. The project road starts from Hosur Town (km 33/130) and traversing
through Sulagiri terminates at the outskirt of Krishnagiri Town (km 93/000). The existing road
is 4- Laned divided carriageway throughout, with the overall length of 60.0 km.
The project Road Hosur to Krishnagiri is part of Golden Quadrilateral, Mumbai-Chennai Link.
Fig 1 below presents the location of project road on NHDP map.
Mumbai – Chennai Link:
NH 4 (Mumbai – Bengaluru),
NH 7 (Bengaluru – Krishnagiri),
NH 46 (Krishnagiri – Ranipet),
NH 4 (Ranipet – Chennai)

Fig 1: NHDP map – Status as on Jan 31 2010

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

DEVELOPMENT AROUND PROJECT ROAD.

Project road holds a key importance, as part of the route connecting two metros Bengaluru &
Chennai. Both the metros are major economic, financial & political hub and capitals of
respective state.
Fact sheet of Project State (Tamil Nadu) is presented below.
 Possessing the fifth largest economy (2004-2005) among states in India.
 Tamil Nadu is also the second most industrialized state next to Maharastra.
 It ranks second in per capita income (2004-2005) among large states.
 It ranks third in foreign direct investment approvals (cumulative 1991-2002) of Rs.225,826
million ($5,000 million), next only to Maharashtra (Rs.366,024 million ($8,100 million)) and
Delhi (Rs.303,038 million ($6,700 million).
 Chennai: is the capital city of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu. The city is base to around 30%
of India's automobile industry and 35% of its auto components industry. A large number of
automotive companies including Hyundai, Ford, BMW, Mitsubishi, Komatsu, The TVS
Group, Ashok Leyland, Nissan-Renault, Daimler Trucks, TI Cycles of India, TAFE Tractors,
Royal Enfield, Caterpillar Inc., Caparo, Madras Rubber Factory (MRF) and Apollo Tyres
have or are in the process of setting up manufacturing plants in and around Chennai.

Informational Technology, IT Development in Project influence Area

 Bengaluru is known as the Silicon Valley of India because of its position as the nation's
leading IT exporter.
 The expansion of Bengaluru city towards south-east direction, where Electronic City is
under development and the traffic originates and terminates at Electronic City would
preferably take route via Hosur –Krishnagar – Vellore to Chennai.
 Chennai is the leading software exporter in India, followed by Bengaluru. India's largest IT
park is housed at Chennai.
 Chennai is a hub for e-publishing
 Another potential source for generated /induced traffic is IT city being developed by GoTN
through Electronics Corporation of Tamil Nadu (ELCOT), at Hosur and Vellore, among
other 9 towns.
HOMOGENEOUS SECTIONS WITH TOLL LENGTH AND STRUCTURES
The project road starts at km 33/130 (Hosur Town) and terminates at km 93/000 (Krishnagiri
Town). Based on the toll collection at the existing toll plaza (km 87/500), project road has been
kept in one package. Concession Period is given as 24 years.
From To Tollable Length Remarks
60.000 km
Km 33/130 Km 93/000 Toll Plaza at km 87+500
No structure > Rs 50 Crores

Location map of project road, Hosur to Krishnagiri, is presented in Figure 2 below.

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Fig 2: Location Map of project road, HOSUR - KRISHNAGIRI

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

The project Road Hosur to Krishnagiri (NH-7) is part of Golden Quadrilateral, Mumbai-
Chennai Link. However between Bengaluru & Chennai there exist two road routes.
1). Route via Project Road, Bengaluru to Krishnagiri via NH-7, Krishnagiri to Ranipet via NH-46
and Ranipet to Chennai via NH 4. (Length Bengaluru to Chennai is 360km)
2) Route via NH 4 (Also called old madras road). (Length Bengaluru to Chennai is 330km)
3) Proposed Expressway between Bangluru and Chennai. (Green Field Project)
The two alternatives take different route up to Ranipet and than Ranipet to Chennai (Length
114 km) follows same route (NH 4). The Bengaluru-Chennai section of the highway is
supplemented by the triangle of National Highways 7, 46, and returns to NH 4 at Ranipet.
Table below presents a comparison chart for the vehicles plying between Bengaluru and
Chennai via many options.
Sr. Description Via Project Road (NH 7) Via NH 4 Via Expressway
No.
1 Length 360 km 330 km Proposed
2 Lane 4-6 Lane divided Bengaluru to Mulbagal Proposed
Configuration carriageway throughout (70km) 4 lane in
progress,
Malbagul to Ranipet
(124km) 2 lane,
Ranipet to Chennai
(114km) 4/6 Lane.
3 Tolling Complete length tolled 2 lane section is non- Tolling will be
tolled. higher.
4 Merits of NH 7 at Krishnagiri divert Only Connects Chennai. Being a
Project road to Salem, connecting Greenfield
over alternate central Tamil Nadu with project, will take
A major section is 2 lane
routes. Bengaluru and Mumbai. at least 10 years
configuration. in start of
operation.
Part of GQ, will be Traffic has to enter Highlights the
developed on priority. additional state of A.P., potential growth
For example : refer Box in project
below corridor

Bangalore gets its first, country’s longest elevated expressway.

January 22, 2010
Bangalore, Jan 22 – This tech hub Friday got its first elevated expressway on one of the
busiest roads – Hosur Road – that leads to Electronic City housing several IT companies
in east Bangalore. It is the longest elevated expressway in the country.

The 9.5-km expressway from Silk Board junction to Electronic City is a four-lane toll
road. It is expected to drastically reduce travelling time to the centre of IT industry as
the expressway passes over six major traffic bottlenecks.

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

ROAD NETWORK STUDY

To comprehend the flow of traffic on the project road and road network, consultant carried out
24 hour count on NH 4 (via Kolar, Chittoor finally connecting to Chennai) as an alternative to
the project road. The survey at both the alternatives is done on the outskirt of the Bengaluru
town, so that a clear picture of the traffic bound for Chennai, can be comprehended. Consultant
finds that substantial traffic is plying on NH 4 to save the toll and traveling distance. At
present the Nh 4 is non tolled, however it will be tolled after completion of the 4 laning.

Table 1: Traffic count on NH 4 - Road to Chennai

Car M. Tempo
Route Bus 2-A 3-A 4-6 A PCU
/Jeep Bus /LCV
Bengaluru – Kolar –Chittoor
6616 622 3121 2131 3978 1653 226 38,023
– Ranipet - Chennai (NH 4)
Bengaluru – Hosur –
Krishnagiri – Ranipet - 9719 244 3344 2455 5312 4708 553 56,355
Chennai (NH 7, 46 & 4)

In the quest to comprehend further, the traffic travelling on the project road can be divered on
the NH 4 (Alternate Route) consultant carried out one day count at 3 locations, three major
routes originating from Krishnagiri.

Fig 3: Route diverting from Krishnagiri

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Route 1: NH 46 – Road to Ranipet and Chennai

Route 2: NH 66 – Road to Tiruvannamalai and Pondicherry
Route 3: NH 7 – Road to Salem, Erode, Karur and Coimbatore.
Table 2: Traffic count on routes originating from Krishnagiri
NH 66
NH 46 – NH 7
PCU Road to
Vehicle Type Road to Ranipet and Road to Salem, Erode,
Factors Tiruvannamalai and
Chennai Karur and Coimbatore.
Pondicherry
Car/Jeep 1.0 3435 1063 6009
Mini Bus 1.5 173 50 196
Bus 3.0 1049 813 2693
Tempo/LCV 1.5 1046 553 2004
2 Axle 3.0 2130 515 2730
3 Axle 3.0 2134 559 4325
4 - 6 Axle 4.5 636 47 459
>6 Axle 4.5 8 7 2
(PCU) 24101 7872 40628
% Diversion 33% 11% 56%

TRAFFIC SURVEYS
With a view to estimate the base year traffic volume in respect of goods and passenger carrying
vehicles, the Classified Traffic Volume Count (CTVC) survey at two locations, Turning
Movement survey at two locations and Origin-Destination (O-D) survey at one location were
conducted. For the purpose of traffic estimation and projections the year 2010-11 has been taken
as the base year.

SEW officials at toll plaza location Manual CTVC at Km 87+4 (Near Krishnagiri)

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Manual CTVC at Km 34+000 (Near Hosur) Long Queuing at toll plaza km 87+500

Origin Destination Survey at km 87+500 Origin Destination Survey at km 87+500

Fig 4: Snaps showing survey in progress

CLASSIFIED VOLUME COUNT SURVEY

The format for CTVC surveys were planned in such a ways that it provides the information of
different types of toll rates. Data has also been collected to ascertain the capacity–volume ratio
or Level of Service along the project road. The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) calculated from the
7 day traffic volume count is summarized in Table 3 below. For details of day to day traffic,
Daily variation in traffic, refer Appendix A.
Table 3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) - Tolled Traffic

PCU Km 87+400 Km 34+000

Vehicle Type Factors (Existing Toll Plaza) (For MSA calculations)
Car/Jeep 1.0 6269 9719
Mini Bus 1.5 101 244
Bus 3.0 3275 3344
Tempo/LCV 1.5 3047 2455
2 Axle 3.0 3028 5312
3 Axle 3.0 4963 4708
4 - 6 Axle 4.5 781 482
>6 Axle 4.5 32 72

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Tractor 1.5 14 3
Tractor Trailor 4.5 39 13
Exempted vehicles 83 30
2 Wheelers 0.5 7055 7055
3 Wheelers 1.0 947 947
ADT TOTAL 29634 34385
(PCU) 53116 60895
The project road is passing through the urban section of Hosur and Krishnagiri, however no
major settlement exist in-between, but the quantum of non tolled traffic is high.

For arriving at the annual average daily traffic (AADT) consultant collected the monthly data of
traffic plying on the project road for complete one year. Table 4 below presents the calculation
of Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF) for calculating AADT from the ADT figures given in table
above. Survey was carried out in the month of March 2010.
Table 4: Seasonal Correction Factor
Car LCV / Mini Bus Bus / Trucks
Sr .No.
Monthly Revenue SCF Revenue SCF Revenue SCF
1 Jan-09 198,959 1.06 58,021 1.05 225,188 1.16
2 Feb-09 168,551 1.256 57,760 1.06 228,841 1.14
3 Mar-09 173,478 1.221 63,689 0.958 260,437 1.004
4 Apr-09 200,708 1.05 63,386 0.96 255,167 1.02
5 May-09 235,194 0.90 61,858 0.99 264,592 0.99
6 Jun-09 209,733 1.01 59,684 1.02 265,480 0.98
7 Jul-09 203,269 1.04 61,246 1.00 275,759 0.95
8 Aug-09 221,456 0.96 59,658 1.02 272,865 0.96
9 Sep-09 222,020 0.95 60,582 1.01 260,186 1.00
10 Oct-09 232,703 0.91 63,195 0.97 268,970 0.97
11 Nov-09 206,013 1.03 54,992 1.11 253,719 1.03
12 Dec-09 268,859 0.79 67,876 0.90 306,385 0.85
Ave. 211,745 60,996 261,466

The AADT values as calculated by multiplying the SCF with the ADT values arrived from 7
day 24 hour volume count is presented in Table 5 below.
Table 5: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) - Tolled Traffic
PCU Km 87+400 Km 34+000
Vehicle Type Factors (Existing Toll Plaza) (For MSA calculations)
Car/Jeep 1.0 7652 11862
Mini Bus 1.5 97 234
Bus 3.0 3288 3357
Tempo/LCV 1.5 2918 2351
2 Axle 3.0 3040 5333
3 Axle 3.0 4754 4509
4 - 6 Axle 4.5 784 484
>6 Axle 4.5 30 69
Tractor 1.5 14 3

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

PCU Km 87+400 Km 34+000

Vehicle Type Factors (Existing Toll Plaza) (For MSA calculations)
Tractor Trailor 4.5 39 13
Exempted vehicles 83 30
2 Wheelers 0.5 7055 7055
3 Wheelers 1.0 947 947
ADT TOTAL 30700 36248
(PCU) 53752 62367

ORIGIN AND DESTINATION SURVEY

During the OD survey all the relevant information was collected from the vehicle operators in
pre-designed format by stopping vehicles at random sample basis. The collected data includes
vehicle number, origin and destination place, commodity carried, distance traveled, no. of trips
in a month etc. The project influence area is divided into 13 zones based on the movement of
traffic on the project road. Table 6 below presents the traffic zones.
Table 6: Traffic Zones – OD Survey
ZONE CODE PLACE
1 Bengaluru, Tumkur, kolar, Hasan, Mysore
2 Hosur
3 Shoolagiri, Royakotti
4 Krishnagiri, Thiruvallauvar, Kaveripatnam
5 Dharampuri
6 Salem
7 Coimbatore, Kerala
8 Mattur, Tiruvannamalai, Viluppuram, Pondycherry
9 Jolarpetti, Vellore, Kanchipuram, Chennai
10 Andhra Pradesh
11 Maharashtra, Gujrat
12 N. India
13 South TN

Based on the OD survey data collected from the toll plaza, survey locations, major Origin-
Destination pairs are presented in Table 7 below. Figure 5 below presents the major
commodity movement along the project road, along major routes.
Table 7: Major Origin Destination Pairs
Major OD Pair Vehicle Type
Commodity
From To
Truck 2A Parcel/Courier
Truck 3A Parcel, Vegetables
Bengaluru, Tumkur, Vellore, Kanchipuram,
Truck >3A Gas
Kolar, Mysore, Hasan Chennai
LCV Parcel, Food Products
Car -
Truck 3A Fruits/Vegetables
Bengaluru, Tumkur,
Salem, Erode LCV Parcel/Courier
Kolar, Mysore, Hasan
Bus -

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Major OD Pair Vehicle Type

Commodity
From To
Car -
Truck 2A Fruits/Vegetables
Bengaluru, Tumkur, Truck 3A Fruits/Vegetables
South Tamil Nadu
Kolar, Mysore, Hasan Truck >3A Vehicles
LCV Fruits/Vegetables
Bengaluru, Tumkur, Krishnagiri, Thiruvalluvar, Truck >3A Vehicles
Kolar, Mysore, Hasan Kaveripatnam Car -
Truck 2A Soil
Vellore, Kanchipuram, Truck 3A Soil
Hosur
Chennai LCV Hardwares
Car -
Truck 2A Timber/Food Grains
Krishnagiri, Thiruvalluvar,
Hosur LCV Fruits/Vegetables
Kaveripatnam
Car -
Vellore, Kanchipuram,
Truck 2A Parcel/Courier
Maharashtra, Gujrat Chennai
Salem, Erode Truck 3A Garments
South Tamil Nadu Truck >3A Vegetables, Gas
Bengaluru, Tumkur, Thiruvannamalai,
Bus -
Kolar, Mysore, Hasan Viluppuram, Pudducherry
Hosur Salem, Erode Bus -

 Bengaluru being very near to the project road is generating lot of commercial as well as
passenger vehicles.
 Majority of traffic is not bound for Chennai but is going towards Salem, Erode and
Coimbatore.
 Major commodities are Hardware, Parcels and Vegetables, Refer Table 8 below.
Table 8: Major Commodity movement on project road
Krishnagiri Hosur to
Bothways % distribution
Commodity to Hosur Krishnagiri
Hardware 57 101 158 35%
Parcel/Courier 55 23 78 17%
Fruits & Vegetables 48 19 67 15%
Vehicle 33 0 33 7%
Grocery 16 18 34 8%
Petrol/Diesel 11 33 44 9%
Construction material 10 18 28 6%
Food Grains 3 6 9 2%
Stationary 2 0 2 1%
Total 235 218 453 100.00%

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Major Commodities on Project Road

Fruits & Vehicle

Vegetables 14%
20% Grocery
7%

Petrol/Diesel
5%
Construction
material
4%
Food Grains
1%

Stationary
Parcel/Courier 1%
23% Hardware
25%

Fig 5: Major commodity movement along project road

Table 9 and 10 below presents the OD Matrix at the toll plaza location in both directions.
Table 9 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in No.s)
Origin Destination
Zone Grand
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Total
Banglore 1 4 1 99 23 73 52 14 202 17 2 1 59 547
Hosur 2 1 2 73 11 46 5 5 87 10 1 18 259
Shoolagiri 3 1 1 2 1 1 6
krishnagiri, 4 65 78 10 1 2 5 161
Dharampuri 5 14 14 1 1 30
Salem 6 87 45 2 1 10 6 1 152
Coimbatore, 7 45 11 1 3 7 1 68
Pondycherry 8 65 35 7 3 110
Chennai 9 133 58 2 1 2 1 12 3 212
Andhra Pra. 10 6 3 1 1 1 4 16
Maha, Guj 11 2 1 1 13 12 6 28 1 1 13 78
N. India 12 2 1 6 8 5 4 2 2 4 34
South TN 13 32 21 3 1 3 4 64

Grand Total 456 269 13 181 36 142 82 30 328 36 42 22 100 1737

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Table 10 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in % age)
Origin Destination
Zone Grand
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Total
Banglore 1 6% 1% 4% 3% 1% 12% 1% 3% 31%
Hosur 2 4% 1% 3% 5% 1% 1% 15%
Shoolagiri 3 0%
krishnagiri, 4 4% 4% 1% 9%
Dharampuri 5 1% 1% 2%
Salem 6 5% 3% 1% 9%
Coimbatore, 7 3% 1% 4%
Pondycherry 8 4% 2% 6%
Chennai 9 8% 3% 1% 12%
Andhra Pra. 10 1%
Maha, Guj 11 1% 1% 2% 1% 4%
N. India 12 2%
South TN 13 2% 1% 4%

Grand Total 26% 15% 1% 10% 2% 8% 5% 2% 19% 2% 2% 1% 6% 100 %

Note: For clarity the % values less than 1 % are omitted.

TRAFFIC GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS

Trend Analysis
Vehicle Registered at the end of financial year in the state of Tamil Nadu is given in Table 11
and also compared with the growth rate achieved in terms of vehicle registered on all India
basis.
Table 11: Registered Motor Vehicles in Tamil Nadu (2003-2008) (In Thousands)
Year (As On 31st All Two Car, Jeeps
Mini Bus Buses LCV Trucks
March) Vehicles Wheelers & Taxis
2003 8004982 6260093 853493 147087 71111 195069 263221
2004 8575241 6734205 901740 154192 76907 204314 276235
2005 9257187 7292507 962837 163545 82547 216456 293486
2006 10053913 7936778 1030686 174646 89991 231491 315564
Growth 2003-04 7.1% 7.6% 5.7% 4.8% 8.2% 4.7% 4.9%
Growth 2004-05 8.0% 8.3% 6.8% 6.1% 7.3% 5.9% 6.2%
Growth 2005-06 8.6% 8.8% 7.0% 6.8% 9.0% 6.9% 7.5%
Growth (T.N.) 7.9% 8.2% 6.5% 5.9% 8.2% 5.9% 6.2%
Growth
19.2% 22.3% 15.9% 4.5% 12.3% 14.9% 14.9%
(Karnataka)
Growth (India) 10.2% 10.9% 10.3% 7.2% 10.5% 6.5% 9.4%

Net State Domestic Product- Population- Per Capita Domestic Product (Tamil Nadu)
The Population, NSDP and Per Capita Income over the period from 2000 to 2009 for the state of
Tamil Nadu is presented in Table 12.
Table 12: Population - NSDP- PCDP

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Year (As On 31st Population (in Population Annual Annual

NSDP PCDP
March) Thousand) Growth Growth Growth
1971 41199
1981 48408 1.63%
1991 55859 1.44% - -
- -
2000 1.12% 119704 19432
2001 62111 130412 8.95% 20972 7.93%
2002 131392 4.77% 20942 3.81%
2003 138253 4.92% 21830 3.96%
2004 153874 6.48% 24087 5.52%
2005 177222 8.16% 27512 7.20%
2006 205596 9.43% 31663 8.48%
2007 243351 10.67% 37190 9.72%
2008 268667 10.63% 40757 9.70%
2009 299119 10.71% 45058 9.80%

Traffic Demand Elasticity Estimation

The elasticity for car, bus and truck is calculated separately through econometric model. (IRC:
108-1996). The elasticity for car and bus (passenger vehicles) is calculated based on the
Population and Per Capita Domestic Product (PCDP) and the elasticity for trucks is calculated
based on the Net State Domestic Product (NSDP). The graphical presentation of the elasticity is
presented in Fig. 6 below.

Logarithm Chart of cars per 1000 Population v/s per capita Domestic Product
2.80
2.70
ln(Cars per 1000 population)

2.60
2.50
2.40
y = 0.5855x - 3.287
2.30 R2 = 0.996
2.20
2.10
2.00
1.90
1.80
8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80 10.00 10.20 10.40 10.60
ln(PCDP)

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Logarithm Chart of Mini Bus per 1000 Population v/s per capita Domestic Product

1.00
ln(Mini Bus per 1000 population)

0.50

y = 1.1975x - 11.287
0.00 R2 = 0.9775

-0.50

-1.00
8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80 10.00 10.20 10.40 10.60
ln(PCDP)

Logarithm Chart of Bus per 1000 Population v/s per capita Domestic Product

0.00
ln(Bus per 1000 population)

y = 1.2156x - 12.161
-0.50 2
R = 0.9848
-1.00

-1.50

-2.00
8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80 10.00 10.20 10.40 10.60
ln(PCDP)

Logarithm Chart of No. of LCV v/s Net State Domestic Product

12.30

12.10

11.90
y = 0.5817x + 5.2643
ln(LCV)

R2 = 0.9975
11.70

11.50

11.30

11.10
10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50 12.00 12.50
ln(NSDP)

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Logarithm Chart of No. of Truck v/s Net State Domestic Product

12.80

12.60

12.40
y = 0.5949x + 5.4105
ln(Truck)

12.20
R2 = 0.9979
12.00

11.80

11.60

11.40
10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50 12.00 12.50
ln(NSDP)

Fig. 6: Elasticity by Graphical Extrapolation Method

Based on the above graphical plots, following elasticity values have been computed and
considered for future traffic growth estimation, presented in Table 13 below.
Table 13: Elasticity Values
S. No. Type of Vehicle Elasticity
1 Cars/Jeep/Taxi 0.586
2 Mini Bus 1.198
3 Buses (Standard) 1.216
4 LCV 0.582
5 Trucks (2A+3A+Arti) 0.595

Projected Growth Rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP

Based on the previous trends in the growth rate of Population, NSDP and PCDP the future
trend is projected (linear extrapolation) as presented in Figure 7 & Table 14

65000

60000
y = 701.87x - 1E+06
55000
Population

R2 = 0.9987
50000

45000

40000

35000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 year1990 1995 2000 2005

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

310000

y = 20410x - 4E+07
260000
R2 = 0.925
NSDP

210000

160000

110000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

43000
y = 2929x - 6E+06
Per Capita - NSDP

38000
R2 = 0.9205
33000

28000

23000

18000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year

Fig. 7: Forecast of growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP

Based on the above graphical plots, following growth rate for Population, NSDP & PCDP have
been computed and considered for future traffic growth estimation, presented in Table15 below
Table 14: Forecasted growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP
Population Growth Net State Domestic Per Capita Domestic
Year
Rate Product, NSDP Product, PCDP
2010-12 1.07% 9.20% 8.42%
2013-17 1.05% 8.32% 7.69%
2018-22 1.02% 7.40% 6.90%
2023-27 1.00% 6.67% 6.25%
>2028 0.98% 6.08% 5.72%
Based on the estimated elasticity values and forecast growth rate of economic variables, the
future annual compound growth rates for each type of vehicle was computed using
following model.
Tgr = ((1+Pgr)*(1+PCI gr)-1)*100*E
Where,
Tgr = Traffic Growth Rate
Pgr = Population Growth Rate
PCI gr = Per Capita Income Growth Rate
E = Elasticity value

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

The above model is primarily used for passenger vehicles and assigned equal weightage to
population and per capita income. Similarly the model applied for estimating growth rate
of goods vehicles is as follows:
Tgr = NSDP gr * 100*E
Where,
Tgr = Traffic Growth Rate
NSDP gr = growth rate of NSDP (in real terms)
E = Elasticity value
Table 15 and 16 presents the traffic growth rates projected based on the economic parameters of
two states Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. As the project road is on the state border of Karnataka
and T.N. the growth rate of traffic on the project road is calculated based on the presentation of
vehicles as per the registration plate survey.
Table 15: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic - Tamil Nadu State
Elasticity 0.5855 1.1975 1.2156 0.5817 0.5949
Vehicles Car Mini Bus Bus LCV Truck
2010-12 4.9% 10.1% 10.2% 5.3% 5.5%
2013-17 4.5% 9.2% 9.4% 4.8% 5.0%
2018-22 4.0% 8.3% 8.4% 4.3% 4.4%
2023-27 3.7% 7.5% 7.6% 3.9% 4.0%
> 2028 3.3% 6.8% 7.0% 3.5% 3.6%

Table 16: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic – Karnataka State

Elasticity 1.2464 0.2826 0.9843 1.0958 1.0958
Vehicles Car Mini Bus Bus LCV Truck
2010-12 9.0% 2.0% 7.1% 9.2% 9.2%
2013-17 8.3% 1.9% 6.5% 8.3% 8.3%
2018-22 7.4% 1.7% 5.9% 7.3% 7.3%
2023-27 6.7% 1.5% 5.3% 6.6% 6.6%
2028-32 6.2% 1.4% 4.9% 6.0% 6.0%

The bifurcation of the vehicles on the project road as per the registration plate survey is
presented in Table 17 below.
Table 17: Vehicles – Registration Plate
Reg.
Car Bus LCV 2A 3A >3A
No.
% % % % % %
No.s No.s No.s No.s No.s No.s
age age age age age age
T.N. 280 63% 227 59% 75 62% 132 74% 171 62% 22 59%

KA 166 37% 155 41% 46 38% 46 26% 106 38% 15 41%

Also based on the distribution of car, bus and trucks in table 17 above, segregated growth rate
for car, bus and trucks (2-Axle, 3 Axle and >3Axle trucks) are given in table 18 below.

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Table 18A: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Most Likely)

Vehicle Car Mini Bus Bus LCV 2-Axle 3-Axle > 3 Axle

2010-12 9.0% 6.8% 8.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.9% 7.0%

2013-17 8.3% 5.7% 8.2% 6.1% 5.9% 6.3% 6.3%

2018-22 7.4% 5.1% 7.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.5% 5.6%

2023-27 6.7% 4.6% 6.7% 4.9% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1%

>2028 6.2% 4.1% 6.1% 4.5% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%

However the project road is very near to the Metro Bengaluru which is having much higher
growth as compared with the Karnataka and Tamil Nadu state, hence an optimistic approach
will be to consider traffic growth rate equivalent to the GDP growth rate of Bengaluru city, as
presented in table 18B below.
Table 18B: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Optimistic)
Vehicle Car Mini Bus Bus LCV 2-Axle 3-Axle > 3 Axle
2010-12 9.0% 6.8% 8.9% 6.8% 6.9% 7.6% 7.7%
2013-17 8.3% 5.7% 8.2% 6.1% 6.3% 6.9% 7.0%
2018-22 7.4% 5.1% 7.4% 5.4% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3%
2023-27 6.7% 4.6% 6.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.5% 5.6%
>2028 6.2% 4.1% 6.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0%

Similarly considering the worsening of economic slow down and its impact on the traffic
movement will result in decline in projected growth rate.

Table 18C: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Pessimistic)

Vehicle Car Mini Bus Bus LCV 2-Axle 3-Axle > 3 Axle
2010-12 5.9% 6.3% 8.4% 6.3% 6.0% 6.4% 6.5%
2013-17 5.4% 5.2% 7.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.8% 5.8%
2018-22 4.8% 4.6% 6.9% 4.9% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1%
2023-27 4.3% 4.1% 6.2% 4.4% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%
>2028 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 4.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1%

TRAFFIC PROJECTION
The projected traffic has been calculated based on the most likely growth rate scenario
presented in the table 18a above. Table 19 presents the projected traffic at the toll plaza location.
Table 19 : Traffic Projection - Toll Plaza at km 87+500
Financial Car/Van/ TRUCK
Mini Tempo/
Years Year Jeep/ Bus 2- 3- >3 PCU (Total)
Bus LCV
Ending Sumo Axle Axle Axle
Base
6269 101 3275 3047 3028 4963 813
Year 2011 48447
1 2012 6671 108 3567 3254 3225 5306 869 51917
2 2013 7098 115 3884 3475 3434 5672 930 55641
3 2014 7516 122 4203 3680 3637 6029 989 59276

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

4 2015 7960 129 4547 3898 3851 6409 1051 63153

5 2016 8429 136 4920 4127 4079 6813 1117 67288
6 2017 8927 144 5323 4371 4319 7242 1188 71699
7 2018 9453 152 5760 4629 4574 7698 1263 76404
8 2019 9954 160 6186 4865 4807 8122 1333 80838
9 2020 10482 168 6644 5113 5052 8569 1408 85535
10 2021 11038 177 7136 5374 5310 9040 1487 90511
11 2022 11623 186 7664 5648 5581 9537 1570 95784
12 2023 12239 195 8231 5936 5866 10062 1658 101371
13 2024 12826 204 8782 6215 6141 10565 1743 106761
14 2025 13442 214 9371 6507 6430 11093 1832 112445
15 2026 14087 223 9999 6813 6732 11648 1925 118438
16 2027 14763 234 10668 7133 7048 12230 2023 124758
17 2028 15472 244 11383 7468 7380 12841 2126 131422
18 2029 16153 254 12078 7782 7690 13419 2224 137775
19 2030 16863 265 12814 8109 8013 14023 2326 144443
20 2031 17605 276 13596 8449 8349 14654 2433 151442
21 2032 18380 287 14425 8804 8700 15314 2545 158788
22 2033 19189 299 15305 9174 9065 16003 2662 166499
23 2034 20033 311 16239 9559 9446 16723 2785 174594
24 2035 20914 324 17230 9961 9843 17475 2913 183093

MILLION STANDARD AXLE (MSA) CALCULATION FOR PAVEMENT DESIGN

As suggested in the IRC: SP: 84 – 2009 and Manual for 6 laning, clause 5.5.4, traffic growth rate
for the calculation of design traffic shall be calculated realistically but shall not be less than 5%.
Hence suitably a 5% growth rate for all types of vehicles has been considered.
Vehicle Damage Factors (VDF) taken for calculation of MSA is adopted from the Design Report
by planning consultant. For ready reference table 20 below presents the VDF values adopted.
Table 20: VDF Values adopted in MSA calculations
Vehicles Bus LGV 2-Axle 3-Axle >3-Axle
VDF Adopted 0.36 0.36 3.6 4.53 5.21
From traffic and pavement design point of view, the project road has been kept in one
homogeneous sections. Table 21 below presents the MSA Calculations.
Table 21: Million Standard Axle Calculation.
Sr. No Year Yearly MSA Cum MSA Design MSA Remarks
1 2011
2 2012
3 2013
1 2014 18 18 5 6 Lane Complete
2 2015 19 36 11
3 2016 20 56 17
4 2017 21 76 23
5 2018 22 98 29 5 years
6 2019 23 120 36
7 2020 24 144 43
8 2021 25 169 51

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SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

9 2022 26 195 59
10 2023 27 223 67 10 years
11 2024 29 252 76
12 2025 30 282 85
13 2026 32 314 94
14 2027 33 347 104
15 2028 35 382 115 15 years
16 2029 37 419 126
17 2030 39 458 137
18 2031 41 498 150
19 2032 43 541 162
20 2033 45 586 176 20 Years
21 2034 47 633 190
22 2035 49 682 205
23 2036 52 734 220
24 2037 54 788 237
25 2038 57 846 254 25 Years

Hence for design of pavement 115 MSA has been adopted.

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