2011 Jose Carlos Arias 117

BASIC ANALYTICAL TOOLS APPLICATION

IN BUSINESS TO ADDRESSING CONSUMER
BEHAVIORS, TEAMBUILDING, AND NECESSITY

Jose Carlos Arias (PhD, DBA)

Abstract
This paper investigates three of the commonly- used analytical tools and concepts that are used to
help effectuate decisions in a business environment. The types of analytical models that are investigated
in this paper are probability theory and statistics, utility theory and game theory. Through investigating
these tools in this three-tired framework, the reader has a greater comprehension of how analytical tools
can be used to accomplish various reforms within a business or the business sector as a whole. Through
addressing the quantitative methods of business, those in management and cost- reassessment programs
can better understand the forces that are at work in their respective departments and within the business
environment as a whole.

Arias J.C. - Basic Analytical Tools Application in Business to Addressing Consumer Behaviors, Teambuilding, and Necessity
118 Business Intelligence Journal
Introduction
In the quest to achieve a sustainable
maximum level of profit and profitability
in business, analytical tools are often put
into play that address the quantitative
methods of business. The use of these
tools helps to determine the effectiveness of
given programs of operation and can help
demonstrate which areas of business need
to be subject to refinement or adaptation
to once more minimize loss and maximize
profit. (Thrall et al.: 1954) Through
addressing the quantitative methods
of business, those in management and
cost- reassessment programs can better
understand the forces that are at work in
their respective departments and within the
business environment as a whole, essentially
accomplishing a greater degree of control
over all areas of business. (Rizzello: 1999)
This paper three investigate many of
the commonly- used analytical tools and
concepts that are used to help effectuate
decisions in a business environment. This
paper shall break down the investigation
of these analytical tools into three different
areas of study to better limit the discussion:
The first area is that of the localized
department, where the analytical methods
can be applied to a specific area of business
such as shipping & receiving or order
processing. The second area is that of the
business as an entity, where the business is
examined as a separate and whole entity,
or the sum of its localized departments.
Finally, the third area shall be the overall
business environment in which a specific
business is located, where for example a
law firm would be examined according to its
position and business strategies within the
entire law industry. The types of analytical
models that shall be investigated in this
paper are probability theory and statistics,
utility theory and game theory. Through
Business Intelligence Journal - January, 2011 Vol.4 No.1
January
investigating these tools in this three- tired
framework, the reader will have a greater
comprehension of how analytical tools
can be used to accomplish various reforms
within a business or the business sector as
a whole.
Probability Theory and Statistics
This section shall explore the use of
the model for probability theory and how
this theory functions within a business
environment. Probability theory is almost
always used in respect to statistical figures
as this theory is useless without statistics
through which to support the initial
assessment. (Webley et al: 1997)
Introduction to Probability Theory
The role of probability theory in
analytical methodology has been called the
“common sense approach” to investigating
specific areas of study, for probability
theory suggests that the best way of
investigating a problem is to combine a
previous knowledge of events with the
likelihood of events manifesting again. The
overall assumptions that can be drawn from
probability theory have a significant margin
of error (in most circumstances) but the
single solution that can be drawn is what
is most likely the situation that will occur
given a predetermined set of variables.
Essentially, the nature of probability
theory has been traced to standard
Aristotelian logic, which reduces a situation
to be applicable to deductive according to the
assumption that a situation can be defined as
either true or false. (Rizzello: 1999) When a
given situation is presented, a researcher can
then address the scenario according to “true”
or “false” qualities (as shall be explored at
a later point in this section). This method
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therefore allows for various generalizations
to be made based upon the available data
from pre- existing situations, and is a useful
tool for creating the most likely outcomes
for a given scenario.
Take the following citation as a means of
getting a better overview of the methodology
and functionality of probability theory in
respect to related events, for this is the area in
which probability theory is most frequently
utilized in business. In the following
examples, throwing dice is used to illustrate
the nature of probability theory in respect to
statistics, where the probability of rolling a
specific number is manifest according to the
number of dice used and the times taken to
roll the dice.
“Independent or related events?
“One of the important steps you need to
make when considering the probability of
two or more events occurring. Is to decide
whether they are independent or related
events.
Examples:
Independent or Mutually exclusive
events
The probability of throwing a double three
with two dice is the result of throwing three
with the first die and three with the second
die. The total possibilities are, one from six
outcomes for the first event and one from six
outcomes for the second, Therefore (1/6) *
(1/6) = 1/36th or 2.77%.
The two events are independent, since
whatever happens to the first die cannot affect
the throw of the second, the probabilities are
therefore multiplied, and remain 1/36th.
Arias J.C. - Basic Analytical Tools Application in Business to Addressing Consumer Behaviors, Teambuilding, and Necessity
Jose Carlos Arias 119
Related or Mutually inclusive events
1. What happens if we want to throw 1 and
6 in any order? This now means that we
do not mind if the first die is either 1 or
6, as we are still in with a chance. But
with the first die, if 1 falls uppermost,
clearly It rules out the possibility of 6
being uppermost, so the two Outcomes,
1 and 6, are mutually inclusive, One
result directly affects the other. In this
case, the probability of throwing 1 or 6
with the first die is the sum of the two
probabilities, 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3.
2. The probability of the second die being
favourable is still 1/6 as the second die
can only be one specific number, a 6 if
the first die is 1, and vice versa.
3. Therefore the probability of throwing 1
and 6 in any order with two dice is 1/3 x
1/6 = 1/18.” (Webb: 2002)
From the above citation, it can be seen
that given a predefined set of variables in the
context of what will most likely occur in a
given scenario (where all potential external
variables remain constant), a specific answer
to the situation can be assessed. Because
of these limitations, probability theory in
business is done according to past variables
and existing business situations and is not
frequently used to predict earth- shattering
business decisions but rather is more limited
in its scope, for it is not a method of business
assessment that is infallible.
It must be stressed that the existence
of problems corresponding to the over-
generalization of a specific scenario tend to
create complications in certain situations,
120
where one article notes that: “Probability
theory and its offspring, inferential
statistics, constitute perhaps the most
frustrating branch of human knowledge.
The abstractness of formal methods scares
many people, and leads to frequent errors
in the choice of procedures.” (Simon &
Bruce: 1993) Indeed, the overwhelming
use of probability theory is a useful tool
only in scenarios where generalizations are
possible: No one would build a space shuttle
based upon the results of probability theory,
but one could theoretically predict ordering a
preset number of products for a given month
based upon this method. One source writes
that: “Probability theory freed researchers
from the drudgery of repeated experiments.
With a few assumptions, researchers could
address a wide range of topics. While the
advances in statistics paved the way for
elegant analysis, the costs came high:
• We could analyze only certain types of
statistics, such as the mean and standard
deviation.
• We had to make certain assumptions,
like the normality assumption, about the
underlying distribution.
• And researchers needed specialized
training to apply, understand, and
appreciate statistics.” (Lawrence &
Shafer: 1992)
Probability Theory in the Localized
Department
Due to its limitations in a larger practice,
probability theory is most applicable in
business within a smaller environment, such
as that created by the individual sections
of a business. What was made evident in
the earlier discussion on probability theory
is that this method of analytical assessment
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also takes into account variations based upon
chance, where although the likelihood of a
specific scenario can be compiled according
to the existing factors at hand, it can also be
determined by those variables that do not
exist. This section shall demonstrate how
both preset variables and chance figure into
the use of probability theory in an ordering
division of a glassware business.
Imagine that Randolph Glassworks has a
very exclusive china pattern on hand as its
upper- end model, and that the customers
who order this pattern tend to do so most
frequently in pieces rather than ordering the
set as a whole. Because of this, the company
therefore needs to maintain full sets because
they need to keep track of the parts that are
most frequently ordered, and also to ensure
that they have full sets on hand if a client
wishes to order the entire set. The company
therefore has decided to keep fifteen place
settings of its most expensive china on
hand throughout the year in case it needs
to fill any type of order. Yet to maintain
these fifteen complete settings, the ordering
department also needs to be aware of which
pieces are the most likely to break and to
ensure that these pieces are constantly on
hand in greater quantities. In this scenario,
the pieces that are most frequently ordered
are dinner plates and saucers for coffee
cups: Using probability theory, the ordering
department therefore needs to order more of
these items than any other item to ensure that
the company constantly has fifteen complete
sets of china on hand.
Probability Theory in the Business
Environment
The least likely environment in business
for a successful functionality of probability
theory is that of the business environment,
for the limitations that exist in probability
theory makes this an unlikely tool for
2011
determining business moves for a company.
As this paper shall describe in a later section,
other methods of analytical assessment are
more effective in this type of environment.
Probability Theory in the Respective
Industry
The best- known use of probability
theory in business is within the industry as a
whole: Specific industries such as insurance
and car manufacturers rely heavily on
probability theory to help define the limits
for policies and the design specifications
for automobiles. Essentially, in the area
of probability theory and business, the
use of this analytical method is done
according to the likelihood of damage or
injury versus the constant state (life). This
area of business can trace its roots back
to the mid- eighteenth century, where one
source attributes probability theory in risk
assessment to the study of smallpox, where
the mathematician D’Alembert attempted to
determine the risk assessment found within
inoculation to smallpox. This source notes:
“One urgent social issue which prompted
much argument about probability […]
was inoculation against smallpox.. The
procedure was not risk free. It involved
impregnating the skin with live smallpox
pustules and could lead to death. At the
same time, however, over 10 percent
of the populations of London and Paris
were being killed by the disease.
“For D’Alembert the choice was
approximately as follows: a 1 in 7 longer-
term chance of dying of smallpox versus
a 1 in 200 short- term chance of dying
from the inoculation. Complicating the
issue was the generally small average
life expectancy in Paris. In addition,
conservative opinion in France,
including the Faculty of Medicine and
Arias J.C. - Basic Analytical Tools Application in Business to Addressing Consumer Behaviors, Teambuilding, and Necessity
Jose Carlos Arias 121
the Faculty of Theology at the University
of Paris, had come out strongly against
inoculation.
“Daniel Bernoulli [another
mathematician] applied his probability
formulae for lotteries to the problem of
smallpox. He calculated the number of
persons likely to be killed by smallpox
in a given time. Then, he calculated the
gain in life expectancy from inoculation
for any given age. His formulas were
necessarily rather crude and the statistics
of mortality inadequate, but his results
definitely favoured inoculation.”
This risk- versus- gain still exists in
the modern business environment, where
companies that do business that contains a
certain element of risk need to be aware of
the likelihood of injury to a customer, either
independently (insurance) or as a result of
product use (car manufacturing). The end
result of this assessment helps to create the
parameters around which the business can
be conducted with the maximum amount of
profit according to the minimum amount of
inherent risk.
To enumerate this concept further through
a quantitative method, the researcher uses
the example of stocks of a company Genco.
Suppose a broker buy shares of Genco
Corporation at a price of $100 per share and
intend to keep it on hold for one year for a
dividend yield of 3%. Total rate of return of
the share can be estimated by the formula:
R=
Cash dividend Ending price of share − beginning price
+
Beginning price Beginning price
Suppose the price of the stock changes
by 7% while its yield remains at 3% in one
week, then the total return is R= 3 + 7 %
= 10%. Genco’s stock price may yield 10%
or it may yield differently but the yield will
be around 10% in the short run. The change
122
in Genco’s stock’s price is basically based
on the volatility theory. For a short term the
probability of the returns is easy to gauge
but in the long run, the volatility rate is
quite different. It is based on a range of
deviation or probability distribution range.
For example if the possibility of not gaining
return is zero then the probability ratio
of 10% return can be assigned as one. To
determine the long term return, the broker
will estimate probabilities of Genco’s stock
in a weak, a strong and normal economy and
obtains the following figures:
State of Rate of Return –
Probability
Economy Genco
Strong 30% 0.20
Normal 10% 0.60
Weak -10% 0.20
Using the above probability returns the
broker can further calculate the expected
returns:
Expected Returns = Sum of (Probability
of Return) x (Possible Return)
From the table ER = 0.20 X 30% + 0.6 x
10% +0.2 x -10% = 10%
Thus, the most likely return that a broker
will gain is 10% for Genco’s stock. The
utility of probability theory can extended
further if the broker decide to compare
the price of Genco’s stock and that of its
competitors. The outcome will give him an
idea as to which stock is a better investment
and which one poses a higher risk for returns.
Utility Theory
Far more easy to understand than
probability theory – and arguably the
method of quantitative assessment that is
most frequently used in business – is that of
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utility theory. This section shall define utility
theory and how advances in technology
have created an environment in which this
method of assessment is most effective in
predicting consumer responses.
Introduction to Utility Theory
The functionality of utility theory is best
found in measuring the preferences of an
individual or a target group of individuals and
measuring the impact of these preferences on
behaviors and beliefs. This practice should
sound familiar to any student in business,
for the study of utility theory is the study of
consumer buying behaviors. (Ford: 1987)
In utility theory, the individual that is
targeted for assessment is believed to be a
rational individual who determines his or
her behaviors according to obvious needs
or desires. The scale against which these
behaviors are measured is called a “utility”
scale, and the ranking placed upon this scale
helps in the overall assessment of behaviors.
The study of utility theory is by no means
a new area, but it has become a science over
the past five decades. The earliest methods
of utility theory in economic practice can be
traced to a mathematician who suggested
that consumer behavior was essentially
predefined according to set patterns of
behavior, and that these behaviors could be
slightly altered or exploited: In his book
The Theory of Value, author Debreu (1959)
suggested that consumer behaviors could be
understood in the sense that these behaviors
created an “equilibrium” for consumers,
where if someone needed a product they
would seek out that product. Those seeking
to encourage consumers to change their
behaviors would not get them to alter their
need but could instead alter their desires.
For example, if someone needs drain
cleaner, this need cannot be changed but
their decision of which drain cleaner to buy
2011
can be altered according to a knowledge of
the utility theory.
Utility Theory in the Localized
Environment
The use of utility theory in specific
sections of a specific business is not overly
functional: Utility theory helps predict
behavior on a larger level, which in turn can
impact the localized environment. However,
there is very little direct interaction between
utility theory and the localized environment.
Utility Theory and the Business
Environment
Utility theory in the business environment
is one of the most widely- used assessment
tools for quantitative analysis. The
purchasing behavior of consumers is what
drives businesses, and those businesses
that fully understand their target consumer
audience and how to best appeal to them are
far more likely to succeed than companies
that do not recognize this basic area of
commerce. Companies that wish to succeed
have even gone so far as to utilize new
methods of technology to keep track of their
consumers’ purchasing behaviors in order to
better tailor their businesses and therefore
draw in greater consumer interest.
Perhaps the best example of this use of
new technology is in the supermarket: It
is a common feature in supermarkets to
find a type of membership discount, where
customers that are part of the supermarket’s
community are offered discounted savings
when they run their membership card.
However, in addition to offering savings,
the membership card also creates a tally
of the customer’s purchasing behaviors,
including the type of product purchased and
its size, cost, and the time of month it was
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Jose Carlos Arias 123
purchased. The supermarket can therefore
use these membership cards to either offer
the customer increased savings and provide
incentive for the customer to return, or to
simply chart the types of buying behaviors
displayed by their customers.
Utility Theory and the Respective
Industries
Those familiar with business will
recognize that entire industries have been
compiled around utility theory – Advertising
is a multi- billion dollar industry that all
companies tend to rely upon to some degree,
and the use of advertising suggests that all
companies are aware of the need to assess
consumer behaviors. (Joyce: 1999; Lawson
& Glowa: 2000) According to the use of
utility theory and other methods of statistical
assessment, companies determine all manner
of business strategies including releasing
new product lines, changing existing
products, and adapting existing strategies to
better fit the demands of consumers.
Yet despite the traditional reliance on
utility theory in industries such as advertising
– as well as the businesses that benefit from
the use of utility theory – there are inherent
flaws within this type of method that cannot
be overlooked. One article from the renown
industry digest Quirk’s Marketing Research
Review (Lawson & Glowa: 2000) suggests
that there are four limitations in utility
theory, where this method is lacking in the
following:
a. Forecasting demand for new, or
category- revolutionizing products.
b. Forecasting demand for products in
categories in which new and different
attributes which were not previously a
consideration in choice are introduced.
124
c. Forecasting demand for products in
categories in which attribute ranges are
stretched well beyond those in present
markets.
d. Forecasting demand in markets in which
serious multicollinearity is present
among the predictor variables.
Also, this source suggests that a
wholesale reliance on advertising as a
solution to all problems in business is a
flawed perspective, because utility theory
is based upon the belief that customers can
be manipulated according to their choices
made when buying a product. The authors
note that:
“Real customers who make choices in
real markets frequently decide not to
choose. That is, for whatever reason,
some customers choose to delay
purchases or choose no products offered
in a particular category. Examples of
the former customers include millions
of potential customers for PCs who
know they eventually want to have
one at home, but are waiting either for
prices to drop further, or functionality
to increase, or both. Examples of the
latter customers include those who are
allergic to chocolate, and hence, will
not buy chocolate products regardless of
the category in which they are offered.”
(Lawson & Glowa: 2000)
Reliance on advertising in an industry
can therefore be concluded as a science, but
perhaps not the most exact science necessary
to predict all aspects of consumer behaviors.
This is apparently why markets constantly
emerge that were either underestimated or
unpredicted, and markets that were seen as
potential booms collapse without warning.
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Game Theory
Unlike the assessment models of
probability theory and utility theory, game
theory is best utilized according to human-
created conditions within a specific working
environment. Game theory is extremely
diverse in its scope yet can be generalized
as how human beings or larger entities such
as organizations interact within certain
conditions. (Axelrod: 1984)
An Introduction to Game Theory
The study of game theory is the study
of human behavior within a specific
environment. When applied to business, the
use of game theory helps to determine how
an individual or a business will react within
that environment. In terms of qualitative
assessment, game theory is unique because
it also brings into play elements of human
psychology that are not generally found
within standard assessment techniques,
such as philosophy and altruism. For
example, one of the best- known elements
of game theory is the “prisoner’s dilemma”:
Simply put, the matter of game theory in
the “prisoner’s dilemma” suggested that
in a prison setting where two individuals
were being questioned separately and the
one who talked first was (theoretically)
offered freedom, either both parties could
benefit slightly, one party could benefit
significantly, or both parties could suffer
severe losses. The response of the other is
dependent upon not only their own desires,
but also upon the questionable benefits that
they might receive if they remain silent.
This aspect of game theory is summarized
from an article published in the Journal of
the History of Economic Thought. Author
Roth (1993) writes:
2011
“In January of 1950, Melvin Dresher
and Merrill Flood conducted at the Rand
Corporation an experiment which has
had an enormous if indirect influence,
since it introduced the game that has
subsequently come to be known as the
Prisoner’s Dilemma. The game they
studied was the hundred- fold repetition
of the matrix game given below,
between a fixed pair of subjects who
communicated only their choices of row
(1 or 2) or column (1 or 2).
(-1,2) (1/2, 1)
(0, 1/2) (1, -1)
Payoffs were in pennies, with each
player receiving the sum, over the
one hundred plays of the game, of his
payoffs in each play. The unique Nash
equilibrium prediction is that the players
should choose (2,1) - the second row and
the first column - at each of the hundred
repetitions. Thus the predicted earnings
of the players are 0 for the row player
(henceforth “Row”) and $0.50 for the
column player (henceforth “Column”).
Of course this is inefficient, since if the
players instead played (1,2) at every
period, for example, their earnings would
be $0.50 for Row and $1.00 for Column
þ i.e. they would both earn more.
But this is not equilibrium behavior.
That equilibrium play is substantially
less profitable than cooperative play
made Dresher and Flood anticipate
“correctly” that this game would present
a demanding test of the equilibrium
predictions.
“The observed payoffs, for a pair of
players […] were $0.40 for Row and
$0.65 for Column. This outcome is far
from the equilibrium outcome, although
it also falls considerably short of perfect
cooperation. (This observation has since
Arias J.C. - Basic Analytical Tools Application in Business to Addressing Consumer Behaviors, Teambuilding, and Necessity
Jose Carlos Arias 125
been replicated many times.) Dresher
and Flood interpreted this as evidence
against the general hypothesis that
players tend to choose Nash equilibrium
strategies, and in favor of the hypothesis
that a cooperative “split the difference”
principle would be more powerful in
organizing the data from games of this
kind.”
Yet in a business setting, the welfare
of a single company is weighed against
the potential benefits or losses that might
be incurred from interaction with another
company. (Webley et al: 1997) Game
theory is one way in which to best predict the
outcome of encounters between individuals
and between organizations, as shall now be
clarified:
Game Theory in the Localized
Environment
Game theory in a localized environment
is most often utilized as part of the team
building process, where members of
a specific department are required to
participate in teaching tools that utilize game
theory as a means of better understanding
their role in business. For example, in the
aforementioned Randolph Glassworks there
seems to be a competition between two men
in the design department for the attentions of
their manager. The manager recognizes this
competition as unhealthy only when one of
the men seeks to sabotage the other’s labor.
Even after several meetings designed to solve
the problem, the manager is able to tell that
the problem persists and is afraid that it will
again erupt in a way that will harm the work
of one of the men. The manager determines
that a day of team building is the best way
to rectify this situation and he determines
that game theory is the best method of team
building to be used: Not only is the manager
able to bring his department closer through
126
interaction but he can also take the results
of the survey assessments provided to the
department and see if he can use the results
to alleviate the pressure that exists between
the two men.
Game Theory in a Business
Environment
The role of game theory in a business
environment is remarkably like that found
within the localized environment, where the
use of game theory can be done to determine
the interactions of various departments and
individuals, and the results of the testing can
then be evaluated to see how team- building
can be accomplished. In addition, game
theory is occasionally used on customers
for a specific business to evaluate how the
customers perceive themselves within their
relationship to the business: Surveys and
phone interviews are often used to facilitate
this type of quantitative assessment.
Game Theory in the Respective
Industries
Game theory is so widely varied in
terms of its use, its features, and its impact
that it is rare that an encounter between
two businesses cannot be explored via a
function of game theory. For example,
imagine a situation where two businesses
were planning to merge: These businesses
then need to assess their relationship to each
other and the use of game theory can help in
predicting how one business will react to the
merger. Game theory can therefore serve
as a means of understanding the position
of the other entity and will thereafter help
encourage a facilitated relationship between
the two.
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Conclusion
This paper has investigated three specific
forms of quantitative assessment theory
in respect to their functionality within the
business environment. It can be concluded
that businesses that wish to understand their
own internal position and their relationship
to other companies within a larger scenario
would strongly benefit from the use of these
and similar assessment tools, for these tools
help to create a better overall understanding
of how and why events and relationships
can be predicted within businesses.
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Arias J.C. - Basic Analytical Tools Application in Business to Addressing Consumer Behaviors, Teambuilding, and Necessity