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Ay An Stat
Ay An Stat
Twenty five ayanamsas were applied to the moon’s position in the lunar
mansions, or nakshatras, of 12 large data sets of timed births. These in-
cluded a random ayanamsa and the tropical zodiac (ayanamsa = 0 ◦ 00 0 00 00 ).
Although some of the ayanamsas showed significance for some of the data
sets, no single ayanamsa showed significance in all of the tests. This sug-
gests that, for the moon in the nakshatras and the data sets in question,
the use of any ayanamsa is as good as none.
1 Introduction
The fundamental metric of sidereal astrology—East and West—is the ayanamsa1 This
value is critical to the definition and calculation of all astrological charts, methods and
techniques in the sidereal system. One small change in the value of the ayanamsa used
collaterally impacts all of the succeeding results.
This study includes 25 different ayanamsas which were chosen as being the most readily
available as options in the more popular software programs and astrological libraries.
The purpose of this study is to see which—if any—of the included ayanamsas stand out
in a series of strict statistical tests.
Although there is much anecdotal evidence of the validity of the chosen ayanamsa by its
adherents, a search of the literature failed to turn up any detailed statistical study of
various ayanamsa values. This work serves to fill that gap and encourage further research
by others.
4. Subtract the value of the ayanamsa from the tropical planets and houses, giving
• Tropical – Called the “moveable” zodiac because it’s fiducial, the spring equinox, is
slipping backwards against the background of the fixed stars at the rate of about 50.300
a year. However, the tropical zodiac is fixed in that it’s fiducial is set each year and
agreed upon by all tropical astrologers. There is no ambiguity in the tropical starting
point.
• Sidereal – Called the “fixed ” zodiac because its fiducial is linked to a fixed star. How-
ever, the sidereal zodiac is actualy moveable as ”“fixed” stars all have proper motion
and so are not really fixed at all. Further, with any number of different ayanamsas
pointing to different starting points for the sidereal zodiac it can’t in any way be thought
of as fixed. The starting point is ambiguous at best and is a source of disagreement
throughout the sidereal world.
Many sidereal astrologers believe that the planetary positions shown in their charts reflect
the actual positions of the planets in the constellations thus making theirs the correct
zodiac. However, the plethora of ayanamsas makes this claim spurious. As an example,
calculate a chart 6:46:04 PM on 27 October 2006 and you will see the Sun at 4◦ Scorpio
250 and Mercury at 25◦ Scorpio 020 , tropically. You can give that date and time to 10
different tropical astrologers located anywhere in the world and they will all come up
with the exact same positions for the Sun and Mercury.
However, give the same data to 10 sidereal astrologers world wide and they could possibly
come up with 10 different positions for the same planets, depending on the ayanamsa in
use. For example, four of the ayanamsas in our list give the following sidereal positions:
So, where exactly is the Sun and Mercury in the correct zodiac? This is just a sample.
One of the software packages I use has 19 other ayanamsas to work with, none of which
can conclusively be shown to be the correct one.
A recent Google search for the word ayanamsa returned 22,800 links so the term is not
unknown. Yet, on the Internet blogs, forums and newsgroups it is seldom mentioned.
There are always a few technical participants who do bring up the ayanamsa controversy,
but mainly to promote their own value.
Given the importance of the ayanamsa in all sidereal astrological schools it is surprising
that the majority of practitioners seem to be unconcerned2 .
On the venues mentioned above, the focus currently seems to be on birth time rectification,
where the time of birth is refined to hours, minutes and seconds and then confirmed by
various techniques whose validity rests squarely on the ayanamsa. Two of the most
favored are the Dasa–Bhutki–Antaradasa system of timing, which relies on the moon’s
position in the nakshatras at birth (the same criterion as the present study), and, lately,
Divisional Charts, where the natal planetary positions are multiplied by some factor to
create a new chart supposedly relevant to a specific area of life. For example, in the D10
chart where professional concerns are shown, the natal positions are multiplied by 10. In
rectification, a D60 chart is sometimes used so that all natal factors are multiplied by
60. Of course, any error in the basic calculation of the natal positions—such as a wrong
ayanamsa—is multiplied by the same factor.
Many Western sidereal astrologers weren’t aware of there being any ayanamsa other than
Fagan/Bradley as that was what they were trained with. The situation is similar with
Hindu practitioners who would use what they were taught by their Guru or teacher.
Those astrologers of both camps who were aware of ayanamsas other than the one they
used would defend their ayanamsa vigorously although when pressed for reasons would
mostly reply “it works for me”. However, most intriguing is the activity in the Internet
Hindu/Vedic astrology forums where all sorts of charts, systems and predictions are
explored and exchanged between astrologers with nary a mention of what ayanamsa was
used leaving one to wonder what page anyone is on.
So how can many sidereal astrologers, using different ayanamsas, all have their charts
“work” for them? Garth Allen in an article for American Astrology magazine, (see refer-
ence below), explains it this way:
The point we are getting at here is that a randomly invented, wholly groundless
ayanamsa will yield highly “significant” ingress charts for a majority of events.
Yes, we said majority, and meant it. A phony vernal point will “work” so well, so
much of the time, that at first glance any value you might fabricate on the spur of
the moment has a good prospect of seeming like a major astrological “discovery.”
If you are reluctant to believe this, take the first telephone number having six
digits in your local directory and con yourself into considering it to be the genuine
ayanamsa in degrees, minutes and seconds, for any event you want to “study.”
The odds are surely better than 50-50 that by your third ingress chart for the
event, using this fake ayanamsa, pretending it to be real, you’ll come up with a
persuasively “accurate” horoscopic picture of the event. If the event is a catastro-
phe, there are enough malefics in the sky, and more than enough square aspects
within reach of at least one of your two, three, four or more sets of angular cusps
to fill the bill and produce a “triumph” for the ersatz ayanamsa employed.
We tested his theory by including a random Phone Book ayanamsa in this study.
4 Previous Studies
A search of the Internet for previous statistical studies turned up only two. The first
and earliest was “How to Unvex a Vexed Question!”, an article by Donald Bradley writ-
ing as Garth Allen for American Astrology magazine3 . In this article Bradley details
his work with Cyril Fagan in discovering the Synetic Vernal Point or SVP, now know
as the Fagan/Bradley ayanamsa. This was done by refining and correcting the Lahiri
ayanamsa against hundreds of Ingress charts. It seems to be the first serious study in
the determination of a “correct” value.
The present study is composed of five components, Design, Ayanamsas, Data, Test Statis-
tic and Methodology, as follows.
The study was designed to include certain parameters specific to Hindu sidereal astrology.
Hindu astrology is know for its predictive ability with some astrologers claiming an
accuracy level up to 90%! The main predictive tool of the Hindu astrologer is a technique
called Vimshotarri Dasa, a system that is based on the moon’s sidereal position in the
nakshatras (or lunar mansions) at birth. From that position, a series of time periods are
laid out based on the cycle of the remaining planets. The complete system is too complex
to describe here but a good text on the subject can be found here5 .
Based on this, it was decided that a valid test of ayanamsas must include the moon’s
sidereal position and the nakshatra or mansion it was in at the time of birth of each
datum. This meant that all birth data collected must have a birth time associated with
it. With that in mind, the study was designed to incorporate the following parameters:
Some might object that the moon and/or the nakshatras are not applicable to the data
sets used. That is, that neither have anything to do with an individual’s profession. This
is simply not true. In Hindu astrology the moon governs the mind and the mind governs
the individual and his/her inclinations. No one can argue with the fact that certain
professions—scientists, military leaders, artists, writers, etc.—all share a certain mind
set. Those data sets are included here.
Additionally, other data sets are included which represent an unhealthy or diseased mind.
These included alcoholics, murderers, psychotics and schizophrenics. Any consulting
astrologer would look at the moon to access the mental condition and health of a client
exhibiting these attributes.
Finally, in the Hindu system, the zodiac is divided into the 27 nakshatras, or constel-
lations, each with a length of 360◦ / 27 = 13◦ 200 , ≈ the moon’s daily motion. As the
moon’s position in the nakshatra at birth is considered far more important the sun-sign
position, so important in the West, it is certainly relevant here.
These 18 are supplemented by 6 more ayanamsas that are often mentioned, or have web
pages, on the Internet, each with their own group of followers. Here, no weight was given
as to the reasonableness of logic behind the proposed values. They are available, popular
and in use and so are included.
In the east, the most popular ayanamsa included here is Lahiri, but not always for the
right reason. Many astrologers think the Indian Government chose Lahiri as their choice
for astrological use and, so, use it for that reason. However, Lahiri was adopted by
the Indian Government for calendar (not astrological) reform7 . In the West, the Fa-
gan/Bradley ayanamsa is by far the most popular with many western sidereal astrologers
unaware that others exist.
We chose a random ayanamsa by following the advise of Garth Allen above. We picked
the first number found in our phone book and called this the Phone Book ayanamsa.
The table includes the source of the ayanamsa, the reference (SE = Swiss Ephemeris, PC
= Personal Communications), the Year of Coincidence and the values for the ayanamsas
and the moon calculated for 6:46:04 PM on 27 October 2006 at 32◦ N 150 , 97◦ W 460 , TZ
+5.
As can be seen from the table, the values tested range from 0◦ (tropical) to 88◦ (Phone
Book). Dismissing these outliers gives a range of from 11◦ Tarun Chopra to 28◦ Djwhal
Khool and disagreements in the Year of Coincidence from 41 BC re: Djwhal Khool to
1153 AD re: Tarun Chopra.
The major challenge of the study was to find a credible source of complete birth data.
One of the shortcomings of the Sun in the Lunar Mansions study was that the sun’s
position for each person’s birthdate was calculated for noon on that date rather than an
individual birth time. As one of the parameters of this study was the moon’s position
in a lunar mansion, the data used had to include time of birth in order to accurately
determine the lunar position in the nakshatra.
It was also considered important to find and include more than one, large data set so that
the results of the first test could face replication. As it turned out, we were fortunate
enough to find, not only one or two data sets but twelve, all made available through the
generosity of the the Michel Gauquelin Archives13 .
Each data file was downloaded from the site. The records of each data file appeared to
be coded for punch cards. An example from the Painters data file looks like this:
P 1F30101853155040 048N36 2E20ETAMPES 91
A program was written to read each raw data file, decode each record, and rewrite the
data to a format more accessible for use in the main analysis program. At the same
time, each record was processed by a sub-routine to check for the validity of each date.
This routine did find a few errors in each data set, such as February 30 or September
31, etc. These were clearly data entry errors and a few were to be expected. It can also
be expected for there to be other entry errors that, while valid, were simply incorrect.
For instance, the operator could have entered 16 March when 15 March was intended.
Fortunately, the Law of Large Numbers protects the results due to the size of the data
sets, for the law states that the larger the sample the smaller the error and these data
sets are very large.
Note that all of the birth times given in the data files have already been converted to
standard time, so the seconds shown in the above record results from a LMT to Standard
time conversion; the birth time of record was recorded in hours and minutes only.
Each of the 12 data files were processed in this manner resulting in 12 reformatted data
files for use in the main program.
Before the tests were run, a proper statistical measurement had to be selected and testing
hypotheses developed. The research hypothesis is that a relationship exists between the
ayanamsa tested and the data tested against. The null hypothesis is that no relationship
exists between the ayanamsa tested and the data tested against. In other words there is
no difference between the observed and expected number of cases in the test, and that
any observed differences are nearly chance variations to be expected in the sample.
The statistic selected was the χ2 (Chi-Square) test, which measures the extent to which
a distribution among various categories differs from chance. The null hypothesis H0 is
formed and then tested with
k
X (Oi − Ei )2
χ2 = (2)
i=1 Ei
Where:
Oi = observed number of cases categorized in the ith category
Ei = expected number of cases in the ith category under H0
Pk
i=1 directs one to sum over all (k) categories
The expected frequencies can be derived from the null hypothesis. As H0 states that
there is no relationship between the observed and expected frequencies—the proportion
of cases in each category are the same—then Ei = Nk , where N is the number of cases in
each data set (sample size) and k = 27, the number of nakshatras or lunar mansions.
However, for this study we chose to calculate the expected frequencies directly by having
the program compute the sidereal position of the moon, and the nakshatra in which it
fell, for 12:00 GMT on each day of the data span. In the Military data set example shown
below, this involved 46,383 separate calculations, the number of days in the data span.
The results of these calculations gave the actual number of cases or frequencies over the
data span. The following equation was then used to normalize these numbers for use in
Equation (2):
A
Ei = N ( ) (3)
D
Where:
Ei = the expected frequencies
N = the sample size
A = the actual frequencies
D = time span of the data set in days
A level of significance of α = 0.05 was selected. A table of critical values for chi-square
at 0.05 for 26 degrees of freedom (27 Nakshatras - 1) gives 38.89 as the value to beat in
order to reject the null hypothesis with 95 percent confidence. So, in order for the null
hypothesis to be rejected, the calculated χ2 value must greater than, or equal to 38.89.
Once all twelve data sets were downloaded from the Gauqelin archives and the data file
formats converted for use in the test, an ayanamsa data file was created which included
each ayanamsa and the parameters needed to calculate it for each date. A program was
written to process the data and compute the expected and observed frequencies of the
moon in the nakshatras for each ayanamsa and data set. The program performed as
follows:
3. Find the first and last date in the file and find the difference in days
5. Calculate the Actual frequencies: For each day of the data set
(a) Calculate the moon’s sidereal position at noon for that day
(b) Find and tally the nakshatra of the moon for that position
(c) Normalize to Expected frequencies—Equation (3)
(d) Repeat for the next day
6. Calculate the Observed frequencies: For each record in the Data file:
(a) Calculate the moon’s sidereal position at the recorded date and time
(b) Find and tally the nakshatra of the moon for that position
(c) Repeat for the next record
The above outlines one run for the ayanamsas against one Data set. It was repeated for
each of the remaining eleven Data sets.
The Military data file has 3,046 records and a date range from 11/14/1798 to 11/12/1925,
a difference of 46,383 days. A histogram of the data shows an interesting pattern.
Military Histogram
80
70
60
50
Births 40
30
20
10
0
1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940
Years
Rather than a normal bell curve, three distinctive peaks are shown, the first and major
peak at 77 births in 1866, the second at 59 births in 1891 and the third at 34 births in
1917. The complete test run on the Military sample can be found in Appendix B. Eight
of the 25 ayanamsas had χ2 values exceeding the critical value of 38.89. These were, in
order:
The values of the ayanamsas are taken at the midpoint of the data range, or May 14, 1862.
Ignoring the Phone Book ayanamsa for the moment, the difference between the minimum
and maximum value is 3◦ 040 3000 which equals 11,070 00 of arc. As the precessional rate
is ≈ 5300 per year this equates to a difference of around 209 years. Including the Phone
Book value in the mix clearly renders the results unreliable. If we are looking for a
definitive, true ayanamsa we won’t find it here.
The results of the tests are summarized here by Data Sets. Required probability is
p ≤ 0.05 giving odds of 20 to 1 or greater. Some tests—noted with * —have multiple
hits and in those cases only the most significant ayanamsa is listed. The complete set
and details of all test runs can be found in Appendix A.
To summarize, not counting the Actor set where 20 out of 25 passed, and the Murderer
set where all ayanamsas passed, the following had hits:
1. 4 Hits - Sassanian
2. 3 Hits - Phone Book
3. 2 Hits - Hipparchos
4. 2 Hits - Ushashashi
5. 1 Hit - Taurn Chopra
Curiously, the most popular of all of the ayanamsas—Lahiri—did poorly in all of the
tests, falling in the 2nd half of all tested in 9 out of 12 cases.
7 Conclusions
If there is a true ayanamsa, it is not a part of this test group. Of the 25 ayanamsas
tested the one with the most significant showing is Sassanian with a total of 4 out of 12
tests. This would prove noteworthy if it wasn’t followed by the fictitious Phone Book
ayanamsa totaling 3 out of 12 hits.
Of the 12 tests, 5, or 42%, had no significant ayanamsa, 20, or 80% of the ayanamsas
showed significance in the Actors test and all ayanamas proved significant in the Murders
test.
One can only conclude that, in astrological techniques involving the moon’s position in
the nakshatras, or lunar mansions, use of any of the included ayanamsas—or none at
all—is pointless.
Perhaps the most important result of this study is the confirmation of the need for
replication of any statistical test performed. The first test actually run was on the 1,793
Alcoholics and the Tarun Chopra ayanamsa stood out as the winner. If the test wasn’t
replicated, one could have rushed into print claiming the true ayanamsa had been found.
It is hoped that this study will inspire others to perform similar tests. Some useful
modifications to this test might include:
Notes
1. The Ayanamsa is a Hindu term standing for the difference between the tropical zodiac of the seasons and the sidereal
zodiac of the constellations. It seeks to correct the following anomaly caused by a phenomena know as the Precession of
the Equinoxes.
In the circle of the ecliptic known as the zodiac, the vernal equinox is used as the starting point. This is the date and
time when the Sun, moving from south to north, crosses the celestial equator. This point is also known as the First Point
of Aries, or 0 degrees Aries and occurs on or around March 21 in the northern hemisphere. This point also defines what
is known as the tropical Zodiac.
At one time in the distant past, the 1st. point of Aries coincided with 0 degrees of the constellation Aries (sidereal
Aries), which is where it got its name. However, due to various factors in the earths orbit, 0 degrees tropical Aries has
been slipping backwards against the framework of 0 degrees of the constellation Aries at a rate of almost 1 minute of arc
a year. Although there is controversy over in exactly which year tropical Aries and sidereal Aries coincided, most
generally agree that at present there is about a 24 degree difference between the two zodiacal starting points. This means
that presently the spring equinox actually takes place in around 6 degrees Pisces (remember, it’s slipping backwards from
0 degrees Aries). Eventually, it will slip back from Pisces into 30 degrees Aquarius, at which time the Age of Aquarius
will really begin. Using the above numbers, that should be around the year 2364.
2. Although there are sidereal schools with different traditions, the two main schools are the Eastern (Hindu) and Western.
Of the two, the Western school, founded in 1944 by Cyril Fagan, is affected the least by the ayanamsa as, in the charts
and techniques they most depend on (solar and lunar returns), only the signs will change while the house positions of the
planets and the aspects between them will remain the same regardless of the ayanamsa used. The Eastern school
however, with a tradition dating some 5000 years, have macro and micro technical charts and sub-charts that are greatly
impacted by even a small change in the value of the ayanamsa. For the remainder of this report it will be the
Eastern-Hindu sidereal system referred to.
3. How to Unvex a Vexed Question!, Garth Allen, American Astrology Magazine August 1964.
4. The Sun in the Lunar Mansions, Buz Overbeck, Cosmocology Bulletin #10/11 NY - 1980.
5. Directional Astrology of the Hindus. V. G. Rele, D. B. Taraporevala Sons & Co. 1973
7. History of Ayanamsa Controvery Chandra-Hari, Personal Communication. Chandra-Hiri explains the problems
leading up to the establishment of an “official” ayanamsa:
India had more than thirty regional calendars prevalent at the time of independence and hence the need was
felt for a uniform National Calendar. To resolve the above mystery as well as to get rid of the multitude of
in-congruities prevailing with the regional calendars of India the Government of India appointed a Calendar
Reform Committee under the chairmanship of Prof. Meghanad Saha in November 1952. The Committee was
entrusted with the task of examining all the existing calendars, which are being followed in the country at
present and after a scientific study of the subject submit proposals for an accurate and uniform calendar for
the whole of India
As to the Indian Government endorsing their choice for astrological purposes. Chandra-Hiri goes on to say:
The Calendar reform committee had no respect towards the astrological aspect of the zodiac and the true
initial point. Their sole aim was to achieve some sort of uniformity among the regional calendars by
forwarding an official solution conforming to the prevalent tradition.
8. Chandra-Hari: http://www.kerala.com/astrology/htm/true.htm
APPENDIX
90
80
70
60
50
40
B
th
s
ir
30
20
10
0
1798 to 1925
Births Year
Page 1
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Page 2
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Page 3
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Page 4
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Page 5
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Page 6
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Page 7
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Page 8
APPENDIX B-3 MILITARY SAMPLE TEST RESULTS
Tropical Zodiac
Nak Obs. Act. Exp. X2
1 114 1711 112.36 0.02
2 119 1736 114 0.22
3 125 1711 112.36 1.42
4 128 1728 113.48 1.86
5 123 1717 112.76 0.93
6 121 1722 113.08 0.55
7 84 1722 113.08 7.48
8 123 1726 113.35 0.82
9 123 1718 112.82 0.92
10 106 1723 113.15 0.45
11 115 1715 112.63 0.05
12 88 1710 112.3 5.26
13 125 1728 113.48 1.17
14 113 1712 112.43 0.00
15 115 1723 113.15 0.03
16 109 1704 111.9 0.08
17 110 1722 113.08 0.08
18 106 1699 111.57 0.28
19 117 1735 113.94 0.08
20 116 1701 111.71 0.17
21 93 1723 113.15 3.59
22 114 1702 111.77 0.04
23 124 1726 113.35 1.00
24 117 1706 112.03 0.22
25 102 1732 113.74 1.21
26 120 1700 111.64 0.63
27 96 1731 113.68 2.75
===========================
2
N = 3046 46383 X = 31.31
Sig.= 0.217 Odds: 4 to 1
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