PASSENGER TRANSPORT.

PLANNING AND MODELING

Master in Industrial Organization and Markets

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Module 5-1

Profesores: Alvaro Rodríguez Dapena

Aurora Ruiz Rua

RECENT HISTORY OF TRANSPORT POLICY

IN SPAIN

1992 – 1996 PDI: MASTER PLAN FOR TRANSPORT

2001 PIT: TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN

2004 – 2006 PEIT: STRATEGIC PLAN FOR INFRASTRUCTURE

AND TRANSPORT PLAN

1
 PHASES OF PEIT (STRATEGIC PLAN…)

DEC. 2004: 1ST BASE DOCUMENT

DEC. 2004 - JULY 2005: PERIOD OF ALLEGATIONS

JULY 2005: 2nd DOCUMENT. BASIC STRUCTURE

JULY 2005 - JULY 2006: INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT PLANS

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT

DEC 2006: 3rd DOCUMENT. PROGRAM ACTIONS

CURRENT DIAGNOSIS

1990-2002. STEADY GROWTH OF MOBILITY

GDP: 32%
PAX. KM: 50%
TON. KM: 77%.

1982-2006. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT CYCLE

SPAIN, 2% GDP.
IN EUROPE, 1% of GDP.

NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE "mature"

ROADS. HIGH 9049 km 22.9 km/100,000 inhab 17.9 km / 1000 km2

CAPAC
RAILWAY 14,303 km 36.2 km/100,000 inhab 28.3 km / 1000 km2

2
OVERALL AIMS OF PEIT

A. IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF THE SYSTEM

INTEGRATED TRANSPORT: COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN MODES
OPTIMIZATION USING INFRASTRUCTURE: DEMAND MANAGEMENT
DEVELOPMENT OF MAINTENANCE POLICY
B. STRENGTHEN SOCIAL AND TERRITORIAL COHESION
ACCESSIBILITY HOMOGENEITY
IDENTIFICATION OF THE BEST GROUPS FOR OPTIMAL
REDISTRIBUTION INCOME
C. GENERAL CONTRIBUTION FOR SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY
D. BOOSTING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND COMPETITIVENESS
ENHANCE THE ROLE OF URBAN AND METROPOLITAN AREAS
STRENGTHEN BORDER RELATIONS
FOSTER R & D

KEYS TO TRANSPORT PLANNING

PASSENGERS FREIGHT
NEED FOR DEVELOPMENT AND LOGISTICS INTERMODAL

INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES
NEED TO IMPROVE QUALITY

OBSERVATORY LABORATORY
TOOLS OF ANALYSIS, PREDICTION AND SIMULATION

JUST ECONOMIC VISION SOCIO-ENVIRONMENT

Trend scenarios environmental scenarios
SCENARIO PEIT

3
PHASES OF PEIT

2005 - 2008: COMPLETE INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEM

COMMITMENTS IN PROGRESS. NETWORK PRIORITY
ACTIONS FOR CONSISTENCY.

2008 - 2012: CONFIRMING CHANGE OF TREND

REDISTRIBUTION MODAL AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
IMPROVEMENT.
ELASTICITY REDUCTION OF DEMAND REGARDING
ECONOMIC GROWTH?

2013 - 2020: ACHIEVING EFFICIENCY AND

ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO

ROAD SECTOR PLAN

ROAD SECTOR PLAN:

INTERURBAN ACTIONS: BASIC STATE NETWORK OF HIGH
PERFORMANCE AND CONDITIONS (INCLUDING
VARIATIONS AND CROSSING)
MAINTENANCE AND EXPLOITATION: IMPROVEMENT OF
SAFETY AND QUALITY OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND
INTEGRATION IN THE ENVIRONMENT

SECTOR PLAN FOR ROAD TRANSPORT

LEGAL CHANGE: LOTT .. STRENGTHENING SAFEGUARDS
AND CONTROL, better working conditions, PETRA AND
SILVER.

4
RAILWAY SECTOR PLAN
HIGH PERFORMANCE CORRIDORS:
INTERURBAN ACTIONS: Core network FOR various
demand levels

INTEROPERABILITY IN SPANISH GAUGE NETWORK

Width changes, mixed traffic, ETI, ERTMS ...

SAFETY AND MAINTENANCE (LEVEL CROSSINGS ...)

ENVIRONMENTAL RAIL INTEGRATION

RAIL SERVICES AND OPERATORS

ADIF - RAILWAY OPERATORS

PLAN SECTOR FOR STATE PORTS

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT OF PORT

ACCORDING TO DEMAND ACTION EXPECTED, CAPACITY
AND ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGHWAYS DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA

STATE AID

LAND ACCESS TO PORTS

IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER PLANS

NO INFRASTRUCTURE ACTIONS:
ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY AND INTEGRATION FOR
MARITIME TRANSPORT

5
PLAN OF AIR TRANSPORT SECTOR

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT OF AIRPORT

ACCORDING TO DEMAND ACTION EXPECTED, CAPACITY
AND SYSTEM ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY

LAND ACCESS TO PORTS

IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER PLANS

NO INFRASTRUCTURE ACTION
ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY AND INTEGRATION OF AIR
TRANSPORT

PLAN OF INTERMODAL TRANSPORT SECTOR

FREIGHT
NETWORK ANALYSIS: BROKERS AND NODES PORT AREA,
NODES

PASSENGERS
NETWORK ANALYSIS: BROKERS AND NODES
INTERNATIONAL NETWORK

6
 TOTAL INVESTMENT PEIT
ACTIONS Mill € %

RAILWAY TRANSPORT 108.760 43,70

High speed 83.450 33,53

Other 25.310 10,17

TOTAL INVESTMENT ROAD TRANSPORT 62.785 25,23

High capacity roads 32.105 12,90

PEIT Maintenance and operation 22.580 9,07

Other 8.100 3,25

2005-2020 TRANSPORTE AÉREO 15.700 6,31

Área de movimiento de aeronaves 2.150 0,86

Área de terminales 5.760 2,31

Other 7.790 3,13

MARITIME TRANSPORT AND PORTS 23.460 9,43

Port infraestructures and instalations 22.480 9,03

Rescue, security and marine environment 980 0,39

FREIGHT AND PAX. INTERMODAL TRANSORT 3.620 1,45

Network nodes and intermodal platforms 1.200 0,48

Land access to ports 1.220 0,49

intermodal development for freight transport 400 0,16

intermodal development for pac. transport 800 0,32

URBAN AND COMMUTER TRANSPORT 32.527 13,07

Road actions 4.077 1,64

Railway urban integration 2.400 0,96

Railway commuter service, rolling stock included 10.050 4,04

Suport program for Public tranport and interchanges 16.000 6,43

RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION 2.040 0,82

TOTAL OF PEIT ACTIONS 248.892 100,00

MINISTERIO DE FOMENTO

SECRETARIA DE ESTADO

SECRETARÍA GENERAL SECRETARÍA GENERAL DE

DE INFRAESTRUCTURAS TRANSPORTES

DIRECCIÓN DIRECCIÓN DIRECCIÓN DIRECCIÓN DIRECCIÓN DIRECCI

GENERAL DE GENERAL DE GENERAL DE GENERAL DE TTE GENERAL DE GENERAL DE
PLANIFICACIÓN FERRO- CARRETERAS POR CARRETERA AVIACIÓN C. LA MARINA
CARRILES MERCANTE
AENA
PUERTOS
DEL ESTADO
COORDINACIÓN

PLAN SECTORIAL PLAN SECTORIAL PLAN SECTORIAL PLAN PLAN PLAN

INTERMODAL DE DE CARRETERAS SECTORIAL SECTORIAL DE SECTORIAL DE
FERROCARRILES DE TTE. POR TRANSPORTE TRANSPORTE
CARRETERA AÉREO MAR
PUERTOS

7
Mobility

URBAN / METROPOLITAN:

SHORT WALK, HIGH FREQUENCY, RETURN IN THE

DAY TRAVEL

INTERURBAN:

LONG JOURNEY, LOW FREQUENCY, TRAVEL WITH

MORE RUNNING TIME

URBAN MOBILITY

EJEMPLO: MADRID
• Población: 5,5 millones de • Madrid Almendra: 2,76 viajes/ día por persona
habitantes • Corona metropolitana: 2,13 viajes/ día por persona
• Madrid Periferia: 1,80 viajes/ día por persona

Coronas de residencia
(Modos de transporte)

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5 Transporte a pie
0 Transporte público
Madrid Almendra Madrid Periferia Corona Corona Regional Vehículo privado
(morado) (rojo) metropolitana (B) (C)

8
INTERURBAN MOBILITY

EJEMPLO: CORREDOR MADRID- • Población: 30% de España

BARCELONA

• Coche: 2.000.000 viajes/año

• Avión: 2.500.000 viajes/año
• Tren diurno / AVE: 2.000.000 viajes/año
• Tren nocturno: 100.000 viajes/año
• Autobús: 450.000 viajes/año

TRANSPORTATION STUDIES: Who's applying? (I)

• Public Organizations
– Central Administration
– Autonomous administrations
– Provincial Councils
– Councils
– Bodies and agencies
– Public companies (For example.- Public Operators)
• Agencies at European level.
– European Commission (For example. - Agency for Energy and
Transport Research and Development)
• Framework Program (FP7 ...)
– European Investment Bank.
• Agencies international promoters.
– World Bank ...
– Ministries of different countries through international relations.

9
TRANSPORTATION STUDIES: Who's applying? (II)

• Companies in the sector

– Transport Operators
– Logistics operators
– Infrastructure managers: terminals, shopping goods, etc.
– Other (For example. - Shopping malls, hypermarkets, etc.).

• Institutions or organizations (associations) without

personal transport research

CONTEST AND SUBMIT THE TENDER

• Techno-economic criteria
• They analyze the possibility of a consortium. Depends on
the budget and the expertise required.
– With other firms: the industry, consulting firms specialized in
supply somewhere, and so on.
– Contributors:
• Independent professionals
• Universities.
• Research institutes.

10
 TRANSPORTATION STUDIES: what they are ?

• Demand studies
– in relation to a particular performance
– market surveys, current or forecast

• Planning studies of a set of concrete actions

– only one way
– integrated transport

• Management Studies
– infrastructure (terminal, highway ....)
– a service (operation of the railway, airport, port ....)

TRANSPORT MODELLING

THEORETICAL MATHEMATICAL-
FOUNDATIONS, STATISTICS
HIPÓTESIS FORMULATIONS

DOC. RESOURCES ANALYSIS

MODELLING
SURVEYS TRANSPORT PREDICTION

EXPERIENCE SIMULATION

I. OBSERVED REALITY II. REALITY MODELLING III. REALITY SIMULATION

11
 TRANSPORT MODELLING

SOURCES BLOCKS CONCEPTS

1. DOC. RESOURCES INFRASTRUCTURE

TRANSPORT SUPPLY
SERVICES

MATRICES O-D
2. SURVEYS TRANSPORT DEMAND TRAFFIC COUNTS

“MICRO” DATA
3. EXPERIENCE SOCIOECO. CONTEXT “MACRO” DATA

DOCUMENTARY RESOURCES

URBAN INTERURBAN

SUPPLY: MAPS, SERVICES ? SUPPLY: MAPS, SERVICES ?

PAX. TRANSPORT DEMAND: OTHER STUDIES DEMAND: MOBILI., TICKETS
SOCIOEC: PLANS, STATISTICS SOCIOEC: PLANS, STATISTICS

SUPPLY: MAPS, SERVICES ? SUPPLY: DATABASES

FREIGHT TRANSPORT
DEMAND: OTHER STUDIES DEMAND: ENC. PERM. ESTAD
SOCIOEC: PLANS, STATISTICS SOCIOEC: PLANS, STATISTICS

12
 SURVEYS CAMPAING

APPROACH OPERATING PERFORMANCE

TYPES OF SURVEYS LOGISTICS PREVIOUS WORK

HOSEHOLD/USERS LOCATION AND CODIF.

RP / SP SIZING DEBUG DATA

QUESTIONNAIRE ORGANIZATION EXPANSION

VARIABLES WORK EQUIPMENT MULTIVAR ANAL..

MEASURING CONTROL HIERARCHY. MATRIX...
SAMPLING

COST/
QUALITY

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

SCOPE EXAMPLE RESULTS

ANALYSIS STATISTICS
MOBILITY STUDIES
PAX, PAX. KM...

PREDICTION TRAFFIC FORECAST TREND SCENARIO

PLAN, PROYECTO REDISTRIBUTION

SIMULATION O CAMBIOS. INDUCED TRAVEL

13
 RANGE OF MODELS

SCOPE MODELLING CONCEPTS

ANALYSIS ELASTICITIES
MODEL CALIBRATION
VALUE OF TIME

PREDICTION TREND SCENARIO

EMPLEO DE
MODELOS. SITUATIONS AND
SIMULATION SCENARIOS

TIME FRAME

Variable
SITUATION
WITH PROJECT SIMULATION
(STAGES)
SITUATION
BASE WITHOUT
PREDICTION
SITUATION PROJECT
(TREND
EVOLUTION)
USE OF
MODELS
PROJECT YEAR Time
LAUNCH HORIZON
OBSERVED REALITY SIMULATION
REALITY

ANALYSIS MODEL
CALIBRATION

14
 MODEL PROCESSING

BASE SITUATION FUTURE STATUS

TRANSPORT CHANGES Voluntarism TRANSPORT

SUPPLY (STAGES) SUPPLY

TRANSPORT MODEL MODEL TRANSPORT

DEMAND CALIBRATION USES DEMAND

ENDOGENOUS GROWTH
SOCIOEC. SOCIOEC.
CONTEXT CONTEXT
EXOGENOUS GROWTH
(TREND EVOLUTION)

Time

APPROACHES OF MODELS

TIME SPACE

PHYSICAL MODEL AGREGATE

TRANSPORT
MODEL
PROBABILISTIC DISAGREGATE
MODEL

DICHOTOMY

15
 FORMULATIONS

HYPOTHESIS OF BEHAVIOR, ECONOMIC ...

FORMULATION

V = f (X, θ)
PARAMETERS

EXPLANATORY STRUCTURE
VARIABLES
EXPLANATORY
VARIABLES

TRANSPORT TRANSPORT SOCIOEC..

DEMAND SUPPLY. CONTEXTO

FOUR STAGES MODEL

MACRO/
1. TRIP GENERATION AGGREGATE

2. DISTRIBUTION
ITERATIONS

3. MODAL SPLIT
MICRO/
DISAGGREGATE

4. ASSIGNMENT

16
 1. TRIP GENERATION

BASIC
ASSUMPTIONS: TRAVEL FUNCTION ZONE 1
SOCIOECONOMIC CARCT.

ZONE 3
EXAMPLE: LINEAR FORMULATION

CALIBRATION PARAMETERS
ZONE 2

Gi = β0 i + βP Pi + βR.Ri + ...

TRIPS GENERATED POPULTAION IN INCOME IN

BY ZONE i ZONE i ZONE i

2. DISTRIBUTION

BASIC
ASSUMPTIONS:TRAVEL FUNCTION ZONE 1

SOCIOECONOMIC CARCT.
TRANSPORT SUPPLY ZONE 3
EXAMPLE: GRAVITY MODEL FORMULATION
CALIBRATION PARAMETERS ZONE 2

Vij = β0..Gi βg Aj βa Cijβc GENERALISED COST OF

TRAVEL BETWEEN
TRIPS i AND j
BETWEEN i ΣjVij = Gi ΣiVij = Aj
AND j
TRIP GENERATION TRIP ATTRACTION
FROM i FROM j

17
 2. DISTRIBUTION II

GENERALISED COST: COST MEASURE TO TRAVEL

BETWEEN i AND j

1. COST IN THE MODE mj TRAVEL TIME VALUE

Cijm = pijm + β t.tijm + ...

PRICE TO TRAVEL
TRAVEL TIME
in MODE m
VALUE in MODE m

2. AGREGGATED COST MARKET SHARE

FROM MODE m

Cij =Σ P C
m m ijm

3. MODAL SPLIT
BASIC
ZONA 1
ASSUMPTIONS: DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
TRANSPORT SUPPLY
ZONA 3

EXAMPLE: LOGIT FORMULATION

MODO 1
MODO 2
ZONA 2
CALIBRATION PARAMETERS

Cijm
e
SHARE Pijm = Cjjm
MARKET FOR
MODE m Σe
m

GENERALISED COST FOR MODE m

18
4. ASIGNAMENT
BASIC
ASSUMPTIONS: DISPERSION BEHAVIOR ZONE 1

BUILDING RESTRICTIONS
ZONE 3

INPUT: O/D MATRIX FOR EACH TRANSPORT

MODE
ZONE 2
PRIVATE PUBLIC
TRANSPORT TRANSPORT

NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE
DEVELOPMENT AND SERVICES

19