CIVIL 731 FRANK HO-HYUNG, KANG

CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING 4630464

CIVIL 731
TUTORIAL 4

Name : Frank Ho-Hyung, Kang

ID Number : 4630464
CIVIL 731 FRANK HO-HYUNG, KANG
CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING 4630464

-Historical data for water use, population, price, and precipitation for a 10-year time horizon are
shown in the following table.

Year Population Price (monetary Annual Precipitation Water Use

unit/m3) (mm) (m3/year)
1991 21603 0.25 1015 2540513
1992 22004 0.27 810 2754901
1993 23017 0.29 838 2722911
1994 23701 0.3 965 2832270
1995 24430 0.31 838 2904727
1996 25186 0.32 787 3004690
1997 26001 0.33 720 3309927
1998 26825 0.35 695 3382633
1999 27781 0.31 820 3375392
2000 28576 0.34 800 3406259

-Six graphs below are drawn to calculate R2 values for correlation analysis between variables such as
population, price, annual precipitation and water use.

Price VS Population Water Use VS Annual

0.36 Precipitation
0.34 3500000
0.32 y = -2407x + 5E+06
0.3 R² = 0.537
3000000
0.28
0.26 y = 1E-05x + 0.027
R² = 0.751 2500000
0.24
0.22
0.2 2000000
20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 30000 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

Annual Precipitation VS Annual Precipitation VS Price

Population 1100
1100 y = -0.024x + 1443. 1000
1000 R² = 0.362 y = -2413x + 1569.
900 R² = 0.582
900
800
800
700 700

600 600
20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 30000 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4
CIVIL 731 FRANK HO-HYUNG, KANG
CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING 4630464

Water Use VS Population Water Use VS Price

4000000 3500000
y = 129.5x - 20455
3500000 R² = 0.927 3000000
3000000
y = 9E+06x + 20538
2500000 R² = 0.781
2500000

2000000 2000000
20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 30000 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

Calculations for correlation coefficient (r)

Price/Population – R2 = 0.7511, r = √0.7511, r = 0.87

Annual Precipitation/Population – R2 = 0.3623, r = √0.3623, r = 0.60

Water Use/Population – R2 = 0.9275, r = √0.9275, r = 0.96

Precipitation/Price – R2 = 0.582, r = √0.582, r = 0.76

Water Use/Price – R2 = 0.7816, r = √0.7816, r = 0.88

Water Use/Precipitation – R2 = 0.5377, r = √0.5377, r = 0.73

Population Price Precipitation Water use

Population 1
Price 0.87 1
Precipitation -0.60 -0.76 1
Water use 0.96 0.88 -0.73 1
*(negative correlation coefficient when a line of best fit has negative gradient)

The table above indicates that the price and population are highly correlated to water use. They are
both positively corrlated which means they will have similar effects on the water use model. The
best model should include population with precipitation or without precipitation.

 Model 1 (Population only) - R2 = 0.9275 = 92.75%

 Model 2 (Population and Precipitation) - R2 value of model 2 cannot be increased when another
variable is imposed that has a lower correlation which is
-0.73 (Precipitation/Water use) in this case.

This proves that Model 1 (Population only) has the best results with 92.75%.