2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

With May 15 marking the first day of the 2011 Pacific Hurricane Season, we are in for a pretty average to inactive year in the Eastern Pacific. Last year we had a record low number of tropical storms; unfortunately, we are expected to have a slightly more active season.

The Numbers
AnalystWxCast has come together to make predictions for this upcoming hurricane season. AWXC is forecasting 13 tropical storms to form, 6 of those becoming hurricanes, and 3 of those being major (containing winds of 111mph+).

The Factors
The main factors that we looked at to make these predictions are: The weakening La Nia transitioning to neutral A more active Atlantic Hurricane season Average-cool sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

The weakening La Nia is a sign that we are in for a more active Pacific hurricane season mainly because there will not be a lot of wind shear impeding development in the main development region. This should allow more tropical storms to form and more hurricanes to take place. A more active hurricane season means that a lot of tropical waves might not make it to the Eastern Pacific allowing for development. Average to cool sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific also show signs of a weak to average hurricane season.

The Central Pacific

Last year we had no tropical cyclones form or track into the Central Pacific basin even though there was one tropical disturbance very close to tropical depression status. Our forecast for the Central Pacific states that there should be 0-2 tropical cyclones to form or track into the Central Pacifics area of responsibility.

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