..

..

2546

1
2

2.1
2.2
2.3 (Present Value)
2.4

2.5 (Sensitivity Analysis)

2.6 BCA (Public Sector)
3
4

5
5.1
5.2

1
2 (Total Economic Value)
3
4 Discount Factor
5
6

1
3
4
5
7
10
18
19
21
38
56
56
57
58
59
65
66
71
73
79

3-1
3-2
3-3
4-1

SFM
SFM

22
27
28
39

2-1 PVC PVB Discount Factor

2
2-2 NPVB, IRR B/C ratio

3-1

3-2

3-3
3-4

3-5

4-1
4-2
4-3
4-4
4-5
4-6
4-7
4-8
4-9
4-10

9
15
29
30
33
34
35
45
46
47
47
48
50
50
51
52
53

55 .. 2535

4 1)
(1) (Benefit-Cost Analysis : BCA)

(2) (Cost Effectiveness Analysis : CEA)

(3) (Cost Minimization Analysis : CMA)

(4) - (Cost Utility Analysis : CUA)
BCA

1)

, , , 2543

4

BCA

(Welfare Economics)

/









2

2.1

(Benefit) (Cost)



( 1)

(Benefit)

(Direct Benefit) (Indirect Benefit)

(Tangible Benefit)
(Intangible Benefit)
(On-site Benefit) (Off-site Benefit)
(Financial Benefit) (Economic
Benefit)

(Cost)
(Direct Cost) (Indirect Cost)
(Tangible Cost) (Intangible Cost)
(On-site Cost) (Off-site Cost)
(Financial Cost) (Economic Cost)

2.1.1 / 2

(1) /


(2) /

2.1.2 / 2

(1) /

(2) /

2.2

6
2.2.1
(
)

()

2.2.2

( ) (
)

(Shadow
Price)2)

2.2.3




1)
2) (Uniqueness)
(Irreversibility) 3)

(Total Economic Value)

2)

(Shadow Price)
(, 2543)

7
3 (Use
Value) (Non-Use Value) (Option Value)
2
(
) 2

(
BOD )

2.3 (Present Value)

()
1) 2)
()
()





(Ct) (Bt)

8
(Present Value Present Worth)

Discount Factor 1/(1+r)t
t r (Discount Rate)
10 Discount
Factor 0.1

n
(Bt)
1
PVB =
t
(1+r)
t=0

(1)

n
(Ct)
1
PVC =
t
(1+r)
t=0

(2)

PVB
PVC
Bt
Ct
r
t

t
t

( t = 0 , t = 1
1 ,..., n )

-



(Nominal Discount Rate) (Real Discount Rate)



(Constant
Price) (Real Discount Rate)

(Market Price) (Nominal Discount
Rate)

9
8-15%



3)
(Discount Rate, r) Discount Factor 2 1)
Discount Factor ( 4) Discount Factor 0 ()
1 2) 1/ (1+ r)t
PVC PVB (1) (2) Discount Factor
2 PVC PVB 2-1
2-1 PVC PVB Discount Factor 2
( (r) = 12%)
1 Discount Factor Discount Factor ( 4)
PVC
(t)

Discount Factor
()
( = 12%)

(PVC) ()

1,000

1,000 x 1 = 1,000

1,500

0.893

1,500 x 0.893 = 1,339.50

500

0.797

500 x 0.797 = 356

()

3,000

()
( 12%)

2,695.50

3)

= ( x ) + ( x
) = +

10
PVB
Discount Factor
() ( = 12%) (PVB) ()

(t)
0

2,000

2,000 x 1 = 2,000

1,500

0.893

1,500 x 0.893 = 1,339.50

1,000

0.797

1,000 x 0.797 = 797

()

4,500

4,136.50

()
( 12%)
0

2 Discount Factor 1/ (1+ r)t

PVC =
PVB =

1,000
(1+ 0.12)0
2,000

+
+

(1+ 0.12)

1,500
(1+0.12)1
1,500
(1+0.12)

+
+

500
(1+0.12)2
1,000
(1+0.12)

= 2,695.50
= 4,136.50

2.4

(Net Present Value of Benefit : NPVB)
(Internal Rate of Return : IRR) (Benefit-Cost
Ratio : B/C ratio) 3
3

11
2.4.1 (Net Present Value
of Benefit : NPVB)

NPVB =

B0- C0
0

++

(1+r)

B1- C1
1

(1+r)

NPVB

B2- C2
2

............... +
+............

(1+r)
n

t=0

Bn- Cn
(1+r)

(3)

Bt- Ct
(1+r)t

(4)

Bt

Ct
r
t ( t = 0 , t = 1 1
,...,n )
Bt- Ct
Discount Factor 1/(1+r)t

NPVB


(NPVB) 0

NPVB

( ) NPVB
NPVB

12

Sensitivity Analysis
(r)

2.4.2 (Internal Rate of Return : IRR)

()



PVC = PVB
Ct
n

(1+i)t
t=0

Bt
n
=
(1+i)t
t=0

(5)

n
NPVB =
t=0

Bt-Ct
(1+i)t

= 0

(6)

i (IRR)
i i i
i 0.20 20 PVC PVB (5) NPVB
(6) i i i
NPVB i 25
30 NPVB i NPVB 25
30 (5) i IRR

IRR = + x
[NPVB / NPVB ]

(7)

i IRR
i
i r


(IRR (i)) > (r)

13
IRR
1 IRR Polynomial ( 1)
i NPVB 1
IRR
NPVB B/C ratio

2.4.3 (Benefit-Cost Ratio : B/C ratio)

B
=
C

n
Bt/(1+r)t
t=0
PVB
=
n
PVC
Ct/(1+r)t
t=0

(8)

>
B/C ratio > 1

1





(NPVB) (IRR) (B/C ratio)
2-2 1)
2)


(Financial BCA) (Economic BCA)

2

14
(1) (Financial BCA)

()
(Market Price) (Change in productivity)
(Cost of illness) (Replacement or substitute cost)
(Preventive expenditure) (Relocation cost)

1)

2)

NPVB, B/C ratio IRR
( 1)

(2) (Economic BCA)

Non-Use Value (Travel cost)
(Property value method) (Wage differential method)
(Household production function) (Contingent
valuation) (Choice experiment)
NPVB, B/C ratio IRR
(
1)

15
2-2 NPVB, IRR B/C ratio
1) A

2) 5 12 %
1) rL

2) rH
(1) () ()
:

(t)

0
1
2
3
4
5

PVC= C/ (1+0.12)t
C
C
100.00
100.00
150.00
30.00
26.79
40.00
30.00
23.92
40.00
30.00
21.35
40.00
30.00
19.07
40.00
30.00
17.02
40.00
250.00
208.14
350.00

PVC= C/ (1+0.12)t

PVR = R / (1+0.12)t

150.00
35.71
31.89
28.47
25.42
22.70
294.19

85.00
85.00
85.00
85.00
85.00
425.00

75.89
67.76
60.50
54.02
48.23
306.41

NPVB 12% 5

PVP = ( R C ) /( 1 + r )t PVP = ( R C ) / ( 1 + r )t
rL= 12% rH = 50% rL = 12% rH = 20%
- 100.00
- 100.00
- 150.00
- 150.00
49.11
36.67
40.18
37.50
43.85
24.44
35.87
31.25
39.15
16.30
32.03
26.04
34.95
10.86
28.60
21.70
31.21
7.24
25.53
18.08
98.26
- 4.49
12.21
- 15.42

= 98.26
NPVB 12% 5
= 12.21
B/C ratio 12% 5 =
/
= 306.41 / 208.14 = 1.47

16
B/C ratio 12% 5

= /
= 306.41 / 294.19 = 1.04
IRR 12% 5 = rL + (rH- rL) x [ PVP(rL) / (PVP(rL) PVP(rH)]
= 12 + (50 12) x [98.26 / (98.26 (-4.49))] = 48.34%
IRR 12% 5
= rL + (rH- rL) x [ PVP(rL) / (PVP(rL) PVP(rH)]
= 12 + (20 12) x [12.21 / (12.21 (-15.42))] = 15.54%

12% 5 () = 98.26 12.21 = 86.05

B/C ratio 1 IRR
(2)
:

(t)

0
1
2
3
4
5

C
50.00
10.00
10.00
10.00
10.00
10.00
100.00

t
PVC= C (1+0.12)t
PVC= C / (1+0.12)
C
50.00
8.93
10.00
8.93
7.97
10.00
7.97
7.12
10.00
7.12
6.36
10.00
6.36
5.67
10.00
5.67
86.05
50.00
36.05

B
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
125.00

B
PVB= B / (1+0.12)t
PVB= B / (1+0.12)t
22.32
15.00
13.39
19.93
15.00
11.96
17.79
15.00
10.68
15.89
15.00
9.53
14.19
15.00
8.51
90.12
75.00
54.07

17

(t)
0
1
2
3
4
5

PVP = ( B C ) / ( 1 + r )t
rL = 12%
rH = 20%
- 50.00
- 50.00
13.39
12.50
11.96
10.42
10.68
8.68
9.53
7.23
8.51
6.03
4.07
- 5.14

PVP = [ ( B + B ) - ( C + C ) ] / ( 1 + r )t
rL = 12%
rH = 30%
- 50.00
- 50.00
17.86
15.38
15.94
11.83
14.24
9.10
12.71
7.00
11.35
5.39
22.10
- 1.29

(2.1)
NPVB 12% 5 = PVB PVC = 90.12 86.05 = 4.07
B/C ratio 12% 5 = PVB / PVC = 90.12 / 86.05 = 1.05
IRR 12% 5 = rL + (rH - rL ) x [ PVP (rL ) / (PVP (rL ) PVP (rH )]
= 12 + (20 12) x [4.07 / (4.07 (-5.14))] = 15.54%
(2.2) (Market Price)
NPVB 12% 5 = (PVB + PVB ) (PVC + PVC )
= (90.12 + 54.07) (86.05 + 36.05) = 22.09
B/C ratio 12% 5 = (PVB + PVB ) / (PVC + PVC )
= (90.12 + 54.07) / (86.05 + 36.05) = 1.18
IRR 12% 5 = rL + (rH - rL ) x [ PVP (rL ) / (PVP (rL ) PVP (rH )]
= 12 + (30 12) x [22.10 / (22.10 (-1.29))] = 29.00%

18

2.5 (Sensitivity Analysis)

base case


(Sensitivity Analysis)






2

Sensitivity Analysis


Sensitivity
Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

19

2.6 BCA (Public Sector)

BCA 5

2.6.1 BCA
(Non-Marketed Goods)
BCA BCA

BCA 2
1) BCA




2)

2.6.2
BCA
1)

BCA

2)

2.6.3
BCA

20
2.6.4



NPVB, B/C ratio IRR



8-15%

2.6.5
1) 2)
3)

21

(
(Net Present Value of Benefit : NPVB)
(Internal Rate of Return : IRR) (Benefit-Cost Ratio : B/C ratio)


2

2

7
3-1

22

/
/

(Ct)

PVC

(Bt)

PVB

3-1

23

3
()

1. NPVB 0
2. B/C ratio > 1
3. IRR > /

1. NPVB
2. B/C ratio
3. IRR

1.
2.

- ?
- ?
- ?

3-1
()

24
1

2



3
4
(1)

(2)

(FGD)

25

/
2

(3)



1)
2)





(4)

(
)

26
(Social Fabric Matrix : SFM)
2

2
(1) SFM ( 3-2)
(2) SFM ( 3-3)
SFM

SFM
2

(Benefit)
(Cost)


1

3-1 ()
3-2

2
1
(Market Price)

27

()

()

/
/

3-2 SFM

28

()

3-3 SFM

29
3-1
//

/
/

30
3-2
//

1.

()

2.

()

3.

()

1. (
)

()

2.

( + ) x

()

31
//

3.

1.

2.

/

(
)
-
/

/
(
)

(
)

(
)

(
)
(
TCM
)
CVM

32


2
2 1)
(Market Price) 1 2)


3

3-1
3-2

1
(Ct)

(Bt)
(Present Value)

()

Discount Factor 3-3

3-4 3-5 3-2

5




(Net Present Value of Benefit : NPVB)
(Internal Rate of Return : IRR) (BenefitCost Ratio : B/C ratio)

33
3-3
(Ct) / (Bt)

/
/

/ ()
/ (PVC/PVB)
/ 0 n

1) 0
2) n

1)

(t)
2

n 2)

34
3-4 ( 5 = 12%)
:
(t)
(Ct)

1.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

1.
(
)
2.

3.

/
1.

0.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0.00

4,500.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.

0.00

800.00

900.00

1,000.00

1,100.00

1,200.00

3.

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

()
(PVC)
0 n

1.00
1.00

5,304.00
4,735.71

907.00
723.05

1,010.00
718.90

1,113.00
707.33

1,216.00
689.99

7,575.99

35
3-5 (
5 = 12%)
:
0

(t)
2
3

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

300.00
200.00

375.00
250.00

468.75
312.50

585.94
390.63

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

500.00
300.00

625.00
375.00

781.25
468.75

976.56
585.94

1.
/
2.

0.00

0.00

200.00

250.00

312.50

390.63

0.00

0.00

600.00

750.00

937.50

1,171.88

()
(PVB)
0 n

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

2,100.00
1,674.11

2,625.00
1,868.42

3,281.25
2,085.29

4,101.56
2,327.34

(Bt)

/
1.
2.

/ *
1.
2.

7,955.16

36
3 3

(1) (NPVB)

(NPVB)
NPVB

(2) (B/C ratio)

(B/C ratio)
1 B/C ratio 1
B/C ratio 1
(3) (Internal Rate of Return : IRR)

IRR IRR


IRR IRR IRR 1

NPVB, B/C
ratio IRR

1)

2)

3
1)
2)

37
6 (Sensitivity Analysis)

base case
optimistic case
pessimistic case
1)
2)
() /
3) 4)