Trng H S Phm K Thut TP.

HCM
Khoa Khoa Hc C Bn
B Mn Ton

CNG CHI TIT HC PHN

Tn mn hc :

XC SUT THNG K

Tn Ting Anh: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

S TC (VHT) : 3 ( 2LT + 1BT)
Trnh

: i h c

1. Mc tiu hc phn.
Sau khi hon thnh tt hc phn ny sinh vin c phi :
-

Nm vng khi nim xc sut v cc cng thc tnh.

p dng c cc bi ton thng k c bn trong nghin cu khoa hc, trong i

sng sn xut.

2. M t vn tt ni dung hc phn.
Hc phn ny gii thiu cc kin thc v Xc sut v thng k ton gm : Cc khi
nim c bn trong l thuyt xc sut, bin ngu nhin v lut phn phi xc sut, l
thuyt mu v cc bi ton c bn ca thng k nh c lng, kim nh gi thuyt,
hi qui v tng quan.
3. iu kin tin quyt: Hc xong Ton cao cp v hm 1 bin, nhiu bin.
4. Nhim v ca sinh vin
D lp:

: Ti thiu 80% s gi hc

Bi tp

: Lm c t nht 2/3 lng bi tp m GV yu cu.

Khc : Chun b c 1 my tnh b ti c chc nng thng k.

5. Thang im v tiu chun nh gi sinh vin.
Thang im : 10
Tiu chun nh gi : Theo qui ch hin hnh.
6. Ni dung chi tit cua hoc phn
Chng 1: CAC KHAI NIM C BAN TRONG LY THUYT XAC SUT
I.

Giai tich t hp :
I.1. Quy tc m.
I.2. Chinh hp khng lp va lp. Hoan vi.
I.3. T hp, nhi thc Newton.
1

II. Phep th va bin c :

II.1. Khai nim phep th va bin c
II.2. Cac phep toan v bin c. Bin c xung khc, bin c i lp.
II.3. Khi nim v nhm bin c ng kh nng.
II.4. Nhom y u cac bin c.
III. Xac sut :
III.1. Khai nim xac sut.
III.2. Cac inh nghia xac sut : c in, thng k.
III.3. Tinh cht cua xac sut. Cng thc cng th nht.
IV. Xac sut co iu kin :
IV.1. inh nghia xac sut co iu kin. S c lp cua bin c.
IV.2. Cng thc nhn xac sut. Cng thc cng xac sut (Cng thc cng th 2).
IV.3. Dy php th c lp-Cng thc Bc-nu-li.
IV.4. Cng thc xac sut y u. Cng thc Bayes.
Chng 2: BIN S NGU NHIN
I.

Khai nim bin s ngu nhin. Phn loai bin ngu nhin.

II. Lut phn phi xac sut cua bin ngu nhin :
II.1. Bang phn phi xac sut.
II.2. Ham phn phi xac sut : inh nghia va tinh cht. Ham phn phi tich luy.
II.3. Ham mt xac sut : inh nghia, tinh cht, y nghia.
III. Cac c trng s cua bin ngu nhin.
III.1.

Ky vong : inh nghia, tinh cht, y nghia.

III.2.

Phng sai : inh nghia, tinh cht, y nghia.

III.3.

Mod : inh nghia, y nghia.

III.4.

Med : inh nghia, y nghia.

Chng 3: CAC PHN PHI XAC SUT THNG DUNG
I.

Phn phi nhi thc :

I.1. inh nghia.
I.2. Cac c s.

II. Phn phi Poisson :

II.1. inh nghia. y nghia.

II.2. Cac c s.
II.3. Xp x phn phi nh thc bng phn phi Poisson.
III. Phn phi chun :
III.1. inh nghia, y nghia. Chun n gian.
III.2. Cac c s.
III.3. Ham Laplace. Cng thc xac sut i vi phn phi chun.
III.4. Xp xi phn phi nhi thc bi phn phi chun.
IV. Phn phi khi binh phng- cch tra bng Khi bnh phng
V. Phn phi Student.- Cch tra bng Student
VI. Khi nim v bin s ngu nhin 2 chiu.
Chng 4: LY THUYT MU
I.

Vi du m u. Khai nim am ng, mu ngu nhin. Thng k trn mu.

II. Cac phng phap ly mu. Tinh ngu nhin, khach quan va u c cua mu.
III. Cac c trng cua mu : trung binh mu, phng sai mu, phng sai mu iu
chinh, ti l mu.
IV. Phn phi cua cac c trng mu.
V. Cach tinh cac c trng trung bnh v phng sai mu : Trc tip, bin i, Tnh
bng my tnh c chc nng thng k.
Chng 5: LY THUYT C LNG
I.

Khai nim c lng.

II.

c lng im:

III.

II.1.

c lng khng chch.

II.2.

c lng hiu qua.

II.3.

c lng vng.

II.4.

c lng cua cac c s

c lng khoang :
III.1.

Khong c lng cho trung binh.

III.2.

Khong c lng cho phng sai.

III.3.

Khong c lng cho ti l.

III.4.

Cc bi ton : Xac inh c mu, xc nh tin cy.

Chng 6: KIM INH GIA THUYT THNG K

I.

Bai toan m u. Khai nim sai lm loai I va II. Mc y nghia cua kim inh.

II. Kim inh v trung binh.

III. Kim inh v ti l.
IV. Kim inh v s bng nhau cua 2 trung binh, 2 ti l.
V. Kim inh v tinh c lp.
Chng 7: TNG QUAN VA HI QUI
I.

H s tng quan : inh nghia, tinh cht, y nghia.

II. H s tng quan mu. Bang tng quan thc nghim.

III. ng hi qui thc nghim. Cng thc c lng h s cua ng hi qui trong
trng hp ng hi qui la ng thng.
7. Tai liu hoc tp cho sinh vin
7.1.

Tai liu hoc tp chinh: Xc xut thng k (Gio trnh ni b).

7.2.

Tai liu tham khao:

1. Xc xut thng k (L thuyt, bi tp), ng Hn, NXB thng k, 1996.

2. Xac sut thng k (Ly thuyt, bai tp), Tng inh Quy, NXB HQG Ha Ni, 1997
Ho tn ngi bin soan:

Dng Ngc Ho

Ki tn................

Ho tn ngi phan bin:

B mn Ton

Ki tn................

Chu nhim b mn:

Nguyn Th Ngon

Ki tn................