Regional Fund Flows

& NVDR Analysis of SET50

Local Institutions Strategist Team

KELIVE Research Department
Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) PLC
29 August 2011
No. 34/11
Presented by
Mayuree Chowvikran, CISA
Padon Vannarat
Chaiyachoke Suwisuttangkul
Chatchai Jindarat

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS


 
 

   !"#$" % 




Top Buys : / / % $

Top Sells : % /  / %!/ / 4%5%

    6 NVDR 

Top Buys
DTAC
MAJOR

Close
% wow Top Sells
70.00 6.1%
SCC

Close
% wow
316.00 -7.3%

15.90

-0.6%

KBANK

125.00

-4.6%

AP

6.05

-4.0%

BANPU

612.00

-7.0%

PS

18.70

-6.5%

BBL

152.00

-4.4%

TUF

54.50

-3.1%

PTT

317.00

-0.3%

/;;< %!





BAY ? 4$$$6 ! 3Q54  D
 / /
 5E %
P/BV G 2554 %
1.4 
SCC ? 6
  L   G
$4 /# High Season 
S
4$%;T

 6!$
AMATA ?  Backlog %;< ; XL 3 Y/
   6
!G%E;G/
Z%  %$%;4/$ LE$! 2H54

Thailand Equity Research

 /;!

KBANK

PSL

TISCO

SET INDEX

Source: Bloomberg
Thailand Equity Research

6
; /;!

/;: KBANK, PSL ; TISCO

/ TISCO 
LE 1.3% ! $$$  
     5E
X   "; E  % 
; 4
 X ;
 a
 !$ ;D/b6!$
  6!//
LE/ 

c /4 $ Z%/ KBANK ; PSL 
 4.6% ; 4.6% wow $
!/
6
;f%  /;  #% -2.6% wow %

SET INDEX %
a 3.0%
!
Stock

Close

% wow

KBANK

125.00

-4.6%

PSL

16.60

-4.6%

TISCO

39.00

1.3%
-2.6%

Average Return
SET Return
Thailand Equity Research

1,037.22

-3.0%

   !"#$"  % 

-US$367m/ -US$5.5bn

**-US$4.4bn/ +US$27.0bn

+US$55m/ -US$8.1bn
**-US$236m/ -US$178m
-US$18m/ +US$549m
+US$4m/ +US$146m
-US$612m/ -US$586m
* WTD YTD
** 19 ..2554

-US$236m / +US$1.7bn

25 .. 2554
Source: Bloomberg
Thailand Equity Research

   !"#$" % 

Unit: US$mn
Country

Ended Aug 26

Ended Aug 19

Ended Aug 12

2011 YTD

2010

India*

-671.87

-136.31

-605.05

-178.24

29,320.84

Indonesia

-236.34

-199.23

-388.73

1,699.74

2,344.85

N/A

-4,380.23

-5,232.38

27,017.90

22,925.90

-17.78

11.08

-107.17

549.32

1,231.60

-367.28

33.89

-2,908.55

-5,454.68

19,656.55

55.24

-1,238.84

-4,408.16

-8,063.99

9,577.22

Thailand

-611.68

-233.84

-619.25

-586.30

1,919.33

Vietnam

3.92

1.31

1.74

145.91

617.21

Japan
Philippines
South Korea
Taiwan

*India, updated 25 August 2011

Source: Bloomberg


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#  KOSPI ,,',HI
2.0% wow V/ Samsung
#,HI ZH 6.8%  Steve Jobs &V  CEO , Apple   "
#;  
Thailand Equity Research

WORLD MARKETS
Aug 26
11,284.54

4.3%

-2.5%

MARKET PER
2011
2012
11.41
10.19

Nasdaq

2,479.85

5.9%

-6.5%

14.86

12.42

110.9%

19.9%

1.20%

1.27%

NIKKEI

8,797.78

0.9%

-14.0%

14.50

12.58

9.8%

15.5%

2.15%

2.18%

19,582.88

0.9%

-15.0%

10.45

9.27

0.8%

13.0%

3.86%

4.30%

Shanghai Composite

2,612.19

3.1%

-7.0%

12.04

10.02

25.1%

20.1%

2.46%

2.79%

Straits Times

2,748.18

0.5%

-13.9%

12.72

11.64

-23.6%

9.3%

3.50%

3.80%

KOSPI

1,778.95

2.0%

-13.3%

8.94

7.81

21.5%

24.8%

1.68%

1.79%

PSE

4,305.56

-0.8%

2.5%

13.98

12.39

-0.9%

13.3%

3.02%

3.06%

Jakarta Composite

3,841.73

0.0%

3.7%

15.04

12.53

28.6%

20.0%

2.20%

2.63%

KL Composite

1,444.81

-2.6%

-4.9%

14.37

12.53

10.0%

14.8%

3.97%

4.34%

15,848.83

-1.8%

-22.7%

13.22

11.32

5.9%

16.8%

1.76%

1.99%

7,445.10

1.4%

-17.0%

13.28

10.94

-5.4%

20.9%

4.45%

4.85%

418.28

1.2%

-12.7%

-3.0%

0.4%

11.76

10.28

17.4%

14.3%

3.99%

4.44%

DJIA

HSKI

BSE SENSEX
TAIEX
MSCI Asia Pac Ex Japan
SET

1,037.22

WTD (%)

YTD (%)

EPS Growth
2011
2012
13.3%
11.7%

DIVIDEND YIELD
2011
2012
2.80%
3.01%

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand Equity Research

/;

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Thailand Equity Research

BAY

NVDR  
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Thailand Equity Research

SCC

XL ;$/ SCC D/ Top Sell 6 NVDR ! ;  Downside  / SCC 
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15


Thailand Equity Research

10

AMATA

NVDR   $/ AMATA DE % 5 !
6  D$#$ 257 /

/$$$  
  !/ AMATA
 AMATA    %XL % 8 .. 2554 %
648  5L D 43.2%
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!/
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3,000 /
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 (+10% yoy) ;
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4 3% yoy
$$#%$$ G 2554 4 
% Forward PER % 18  /y$

18.00
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!/ Upside
22%

Thailand Equity Research

11

    6

NVDR  (22 ? 26 ..2554)

Thailand Equity Research

12

/ Top Buy 6 NVDR #  10 
;

(Unit: Million Baht)
Rank

Stock

Foreign Net Position

ending 26 Aug

ending 19 Aug

NVDR Outstanding
2011

26-Aug

19-Aug

Chg YTD

DTAC

833.05

-511.17

43.25

9.66%

9.75%

-0.40%

MAJOR

287.91

-50.70

876.95

11.75%

11.07%

4.06%

AP

282.82

228.65

843.54

11.28%

10.23%

0.15%

PS

123.13

112.60

691.03

2.06%

1.83%

0.65%

TUF

114.79

76.84

1,892.85

4.01%

4.00%

1.49%

AMATA

93.12

124.38

590.01

6.45%

5.65%

1.54%

EGCO

81.60

72.98

2,406.27

11.86%

11.69%

1.78%

DCC

66.57

18.26

331.54

4.86%

4.85%

-0.44%

QH

53.98

-28.65

-572.25

3.98%

3.96%

-4.78%

10

ESSO

45.08

-36.47

1,203.81

1.32%

1.35%

-0.56%

Source: NVDR, SETSMART **SET50**

DTAC  !  Top Buy ;  NVDR h  "  iV  i  j ;&*  h
#:# ,V
    j ;, DTAC   "
#;  
V DTAC ',HI / 6.1%   " 
NVDR 'k:I
. MAJOR I ' 3  "  ;  Z: MAJOR ;  NVDR +68bps wow

  k:I l   AP  PS ;' l ,+'  ;
  Z: AP  PS ;  NVDR ',HI    1.05%  0.23% wow V'
Thailand Equity Research

13

Weekly NVDR Trading Top Buys

NVDR Outstanding - Top 10 Net Buy Stocks
28%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 19

As of Aug 26

24%

20%

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

DTAC

MAJOR

AP

PS

TUF

AMATA

EGCO

DCC

QH

ESSO

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

14

/ Top Sell 6 NVDR #  10 
;

(Unit: Million Baht)
Rank

Stock

Foreign Net Position

ending 26 Aug

ending 19 Aug

NVDR Outstanding
2011

26-Aug

19-Aug

Chg YTD

SCC

-2,255.77

205.08

-797.73

11.23%

11.34%

-0.01%

KBANK

-1,524.07

1,350.15

4,522.74

25.41%

25.70%

0.65%

BANPU

-1,418.93

-1,395.87

-7,962.25

12.89%

13.67%

-8.42%

BBL

-1,407.46

139.79

-2,223.46

24.14%

24.08%

-0.61%

PTT

-448.18

-162.75

8,812.16

3.10%

3.15%

0.09%

SCB

-361.42

1,344.35

5,855.00

4.55%

4.27%

0.31%

PTTCH

-351.77

-0.28

784.57

4.51%

4.60%

-3.81%

CPF

-335.26

725.65

5,115.75

5.15%

5.15%

0.04%

TOP

-293.12

-206.88

6,576.76

5.31%

5.64%

0.85%

10

PTTEP

-290.04

-320.09

3,403.55

1.94%

1.97%

0.15%

Source: NVDR, SETSMART **SET50**

SCC  !  Top Sell ;  NVDR h  "  , j '  
   SCC ,HI XD   j ; 5.5
'
/ I 
# 8 ..
#;    ; SCC '+  7.3%   Z: ;  NVDR -11bps wow

    Z: BANPU  !  "
# 3    ! h  4.2  '. /'"  '
V  V BANPU  k:I  ! ,  ; BANPU '+  7%   Z: ;  NVDR -78bps wow
NVDR   Z: . , )   KBANK, BBL  SCB   :#  ; 's# 2-5% wow
Thailand Equity Research

15

Weekly NVDR Trading Top Sells

NVDR Outstanding - Top Net Sell Stocks
28%

end of 2010

As of Aug 19

As of Aug 26

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

24%

20%

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

SCC

KBANK

BANPU

BBL

PTT

SCB

PTTCH

CPF

TOP

PTTEP

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

16

/ Top Buy / Top Sell 6 NVDR # !G 2554

Top Buy (Ytd)

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Top Sell (Ytd)

Thailand Equity Research

Stock
PTT
PTTAR
TOP
BAY
SCB
KTB
CPF
KBANK
ADVANC
PTTEP

Rank

Stock

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

BANPU
LH
BBL
BH
THAI
SCC
QH
TRUE
CPALL
STEC

Foreign Net Position

2011
8,812.16
6,837.90
6,576.76
6,152.45
5,855.00
5,116.82
5,115.75
4,522.74
3,698.81
3,403.55

2010
17,369.30
4,165.01
5,075.40
9,656.80
8,119.15
7,482.70
6,189.90
13,959.93
7,119.14
7,022.92

Foreign Net Position

2011
-7,962.25
-3,055.55
-2,223.46
-890.85
-850.52
-797.73
-572.25
-543.58
-353.36
-349.87

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

2010
2,903.93
2,642.94
3,287.17
289.07
3,448.72
3,160.99
1,452.23
-795.23
2,484.42
746.37

NVDR Outstanding
26-Aug
3.10%
6.49%
5.31%
15.74%
4.55%
4.71%
5.15%
25.41%
3.71%
1.94%

19-Aug
3.15%
6.69%
5.64%
16.29%
4.27%
4.94%
5.15%
25.70%
3.79%
1.97%

Chg YTD
0.09%
2.48%
0.85%
0.28%
0.31%
0.29%
0.04%
0.65%
0.83%
0.15%

NVDR Outstanding
26-Aug
12.89%
19.17%
24.14%
10.49%
2.47%
11.23%
3.98%
1.76%
3.61%
6.24%

19-Aug
13.67%
19.45%
24.08%
10.49%
2.86%
11.34%
3.96%
1.80%
3.73%
6.43%

Chg YTD
-8.42%
-5.37%
-0.61%
-0.50%
-2.70%
-0.01%
-4.78%
-1.05%
-0.53%
-5.04%

17

 NVDR  $

(Unit: Million Baht)
Weekly Net Buy/ Net Sell

Sector
ending Aug 26

ending Aug 19

ending Aug 11

ENERGY

-2,587.64

-2,014.15

-2,168.60

22,145.97

BANK

-3,487.45

3,537.25

-4,591.02

22,354.94

PROPERTY

682.92

1,857.34

-102.41

1,450.51

ICT

733.02

3,297.92

42.04

7,844.45

-2,141.10

225.60

-1,313.94

-313.58

-380.42

-195.63

-567.77

2,462.07

-7,754.13

7,455.81

-9,097.37

65,834.96

CONMAT
PETRO
SET

YTD2011

Source: NVDR, SETSMART


  ',
. 
;  NVDR  ! h  7.8  '.  "   "   
#k:I
. 7.5 
'. (  Big Lot  INTUCH  CPN k:I
. 2.2  '.)  ;Z k:I
. YTD : 6.6 :# '.
/ 
#,
.   .        l  ICT k:I
.  :#
NVDR ',
. . I  "   .
. &,HI 'I /' 25bps    ))(
,HI 'I I   ; SETBANK ' 4.1% wow Underperform SET Index
# -3.0% wow
NVDR   Z:     :# !  "
# 3 ZH IV ' NYMEX -<=   "  
' &*+/ 'V  V,/'"   BANPU  ; SETENERGY -1.8% wow
Thailand Equity Research

18

NVDR Trading Energy Sector

NVDR Outstanding - Energy & Petrochemical Sector
28%

end of 2010

As of Aug 19

As of Aug 26

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

24%

20%

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

BANPU

PTT

PTTAR

PTTCH

PTTEP

TOP

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

19

NVDR Trading Banking Sector

NVDR Outstanding - Banking Sector
30%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 19

As of Aug 26

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

BAY

BBL

KBANK

KTB

SCB

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

20

NVDR Trading Property Sector

NVDR Outstanding - Property Sector
30%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 19

As of Aug 26

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

AP

LH

PS

QH

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

21

NVDR Trading Contractors

NVDR Outstanding - Contractors
12%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 19

As of Aug 26

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

CK

ITD

STEC

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

22

NVDR Trading ICT

NVDR Outstanding - ICT
16%

% of Holding per Paid-up Capital

end of 2010

As of Aug 19

As of Aug 26

12%

8%

4%

0%

ADVANC

DTAC

TRUE

Source: NVDR, SETSMART

Thailand Equity Research

23

DISCLAIMER

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 !f

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   12 / /  E L D l%  / 
;$/!XL <
!   
f

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Thailand Equity Research

24