A Weekly 1Review

NNEXURE
Week in Review: Sep 12 Sep 16

KSE-100 INDEX GAINS 216 POINTS WOW DESPITE GLOBAL EQUITY WOES
KSE-100 Index Weekly Performance The KSE-100 index displayed resiliency for the second week 120 11,400 in a row to close at a gain of 67 points (+0.6% WoW). 90 11,300 Despite continuing economic turbulence internationally 60 11,200 over the on-going debt crisis and economic concerns over the impact of flooding on the 30 11,100 local front, investor sentiment remained strong 0 11,000 with 5 consecutive sessions of Sept-12 Sept-13 Sept-14 Sept-15 Sept-16 the index closing in the Volume Index positive. However, investor interest seemed dull with a sharp drop in average daily volumes to 50mln shares (-40% WoW) explained by little activity seen by foreign investors who remained net sellers of USD 1mln. Global markets continue to face pressure with speculation over the fragile state of the financial system, especially in EU. This was substantiated by Moodys collective downgrade of French banks, indicating high likelihood of a sovereign downgrade to follow. However, markets witnessed a slight rebound in the latter half of the week amidst news flows of currency supportive measures by EU central banks to their neighboring struggling economies. Nevertheless, on the local front, attractive valuations and good corporate results offering high dividend yields shielded the KSE-100 from the adversities seen internationally. Accordingly, the market outperformed regional peers by 1.8% collectively in the outgoing week.
Volumes (mln)

KSE-100 Index

Futures Market
Av. Daily Volume Av. Daily Value Futures Spread
Source: KSE

5.23 428 7.66 %

- 26 % - 34 % + 183 bps

Top 5 Future Value Leaders

Future FFBL-SEPT ENGRO-SEPT POL-SEPT NBP-SEPT NML-SEPT
Source: KSE

Value 70.4 49.3 44.5 24.2 20.1

Spread 6.8 % 13.6 % 5.6 % 2.9 % 7.0 %

Top 5 Volume Leaders

Weekly Market Wrap-up

Open High Low Close +/- % +/- points Av. Daily Volume
Source: KSE

Ready Market

Stock LOTPTA FFBL NBP AHCL FATIMA

Source: KSE

Volume 36.42 25.77 18.27 14.27 8.98

% + 1.7 % + 5.7 % + 0.9 % + 0.0 % + 2.1 %

11,286 11,366 11,140 11,353 + 0.6 % + 67 49.6 MTS Investment Rate

Source: KSE

MTS
59 mln 7.7 % - 22.0 % + 1.6 %

STOCK SPECIFIC ACTIVITY: Key results announced this week include Attock group of companies with their FY11 results. APL posted earnings growth of 18% YoY mainly on account of higher oil prices on a comparative basis. The company announced a healthy payout of PKR 30/share above analyst expectations thus enabling the stock to outperform the KSE-100 index by 3.6%. POLs earnings grew by 45% YoY owing to the successes in exploration activities and better than expected flows from its main operatings wells. However, this growth failed to excite investors as the scrip underperformed the benchmark index by 0.8%. A similar case was seen in ATRL whos impressive profitability did not seem to stimulate activity and the stock closed down a substantial 10% WoW. FORWARD LOOKING EXPECTATIONS: With the corporate result season almost over, we expect slight a mulled period in terms of activity over the coming week. Sentiments are expected to remain sensitive to international developments, especially the performance of Asian markets as this is likely to direct the flow of foreign investment in the country. Mixed macroeconomic fundamentals were released during the week; fx reserves declined on the back of committed debt payments and the current account deficit widened to USD 75mln. On the other hand, remittances continued their record breaking trend crossing USD 1.3bln and lower yield rates indicate confidence over inflation control. We expect further macroeconomic data to be released during the coming week, impact of which would be a key factor in the market.

Economic Indicators GDP Growth FY12E Per Capita Income FY12E Forex Reserves (15-Sep-11) Inflation CPI (YTD) Exports (July 11- Aug-11) Imports (July 11- Aug-11) Trade Balance (July 11- Aug-11) Current A/C (Aug-11) Remittances (Aug-11) 10-year Bond Yield (Aug-11) 2.80% $ 1,150 $17.58bn 13.77 $4.17bn $7.50bn $(3.33)bn $(75)mn $1.30bn 13.25%

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KSE-100 RSI: 43.44

Selling Pressure
1 2

Neutral 3

Buying Pressure 4 5

KSE-100 Fibonacci Expected Support Levels Support Level 11,180

Source: FCRA Research

Resistance Level 11,420

Foreign / Local Portfolio Investment (USD mln) FIPI (0.967) OUT Companies 4.800 IN Banks / DFI (0.071) OUT Mutual Funds (7.542) OUT NBFC (0.133) OUT Individuals 0.497 IN Others 3.416 IN
Source: NCCPL

Sectoral Performance
4.0% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0%

KSE-100 Top Performers / Losers

MARI BATA ACPL SNGP PIAA ----

3.0% 2.5%

27% 11% 10% 9%

9%

2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Oil & Gas Chemical Cement Power Textile -0.2% Banks 1.2% 0.6%

-10%
-11%

ATRL IGIIL AHL SBL NETSOL

10% 20%
30% -20% -10% 40% 0%
Chemicals 41% Financial 5%
Banks 12% Power 5% Others 31%

Top Sectors Based on Volumes

Oil & Gas 6%

-12% -16%
-18%
-40% -30%

Financial Consultants & Risk Analytics | Room 204, Second Floor, Lahore Stock Exchange Building, 19-Khayaban-e-Aiwan-e-Iqbal, Lahore, Pakistan Phone: +92 (42) 36312222 | Fax: +92 (42) 36368303 Email: fcraresearch@gmail.com