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19 2554
CONTENT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Investment strategy
Fund flow analysis
NVDR Trading Data by Stock
Economic Issues by region
Interest Rate & CDS Movement
Securities Commodities Forex Movement
Economic calendar
Management Transaction
Stock Update
News Update & Analyst Quick Comments
Stock Calendar
Page
3
5
7
8
11
13
16
17
17
18
20
2
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
#
4&+5**
+1=/
1 >0&<!*'((+7+ 19,537 ( SET INDEX G
+ 2.87
1
>& 1033.34 1
&
5 G
(
&5
/
& & +7( +1.48%, & IMM +1.42% & &+
+0.88% 5&& &+& 20 +0.52%, & ICT +0.39%, & 7++ -1.21%, & 5
&5+
+0.25%
e6
!
19 2554
4
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
*
(US$ )
2553
(US$ )
390.2
33.6
-9,089.1
9577
KOSPI
78.7
-185.3
-6,206.6
19657
JSE
2.9
-154.9
1,358.6
2345
PSE
-4.9
1.2
553.8
1232
-10.9
-8.4
115.6
617
15.5
-31.0
-891.8
1919
Short-Selling
Stock
YTD 2554
(US$ )
TAIEX
SET INDEX
&
(US$ )
Total Value
% of trading
Avg.Price
(mn Bt)
Volume
(Bt)
BBL
127.21
12.31%
153.51
KTB
54.71
10.22%
18.33
KBANK
50.86
5.27%
122.90
PTT
47.79
2.93%
312.73
BAY
32.96
7.59%
23.42
(()
SET50 Futures (5;;)
SSF (5;;)
5* (()
*
&
470
-939
-32
+32
+15
+1
-3,513
-4,709
!
'(')*&+
&/ &
8& 1% 10 0
+
&/':;4
< 5&+%4+
&+
6( 55
/0*+^4( 6 8
&=7+
470 ( 1
5 8'526 8,878 ( YTD '526 27,433 (
&
( Short 5264 SET50 Futures 18 32 5;; &(& Long 526 32 5;; 1)+
&1^G
5T&&* O7 ++/ & 0
1
'5264
5*^ 5 3,513 ( 5 8'526 19,462
( 5 +6"+0&+6(((
$5QR 1+&0&+
/- NVDR
!?
@>+ M <!*'%& NVDR !"$%& ( <!*5264( 3 8 808 ( 1
A .
@/- ICT
2 8&'526 1,905 ( 5O7 /
+
&/*
A?57
1. & 20( ^d '+55 5>+5
0*+ 716 ( 1&
<!*526 206 (
& ICT <!*526 300 ( 1&<!*526 232
( & '5&+ <!*526 47 (
2. & 5
&5++0+T>'5265>+5
&!+ 224 ( 1&'526
937 (
& '526 87 ( & O '526 57
(
123
=0(
% &0%123
4
4
=
0(
BBL
406.92
30.66
SCC
KBANK
ADVANC
DTAC
TISCO
236.82
173.82
160.65
70.82
20.62
7.34
12.63
29.11
TUF
RATCH
BLA
LH
% &0%123
4
-304.17
23.44
-83.24
-67.80
-57.20
-53.03
25.41
31.67
36.29
23.75
5
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
8,500
Yesterday
-8,500
1 Week
1 Month
ASP
BLS
KS
CLSA
CS
DBSV
JPM
KGI
KEST
PHATRA
SCBS
MACQ
UBS
Yesterday
-364
142
-40
48
-59
-241
402
18
-226
481
187
-314
143
TOTAL
178
1 Week
401
-141
-833
-1,294
-2,193
-433
802
-56
-1,018
1,130
2,041
-1,283
-3,061
-5,937
1 Month
754
-252
265
-1,452
1,682
-5,021
1,434
-402
-855
1,530
2,475
-3,261
-3,941
-7,044
(mnUS$)
-10,000
India*
Indonesia
Philippines
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
Yesterday
34.87
2.87
-4.95
78.69
390.19
15.49
-10.90
WTD Net
-211.49
-411.31
-18.61
-745.24
-411.08
-263.07
-32.37
YTD Net
308.88
1358.61
553.83
-6206.58
-9089.10
-891.79
115.61
Source: Bloomberg
*India: Net foreign fund flow updated as of 15 Sep 11.
Yesterday
Closed
% DoD
% WTD
WTD Net
YTD Net
INDEX
Closed
% DoD
% WTD
SET INDEX
1,033.34
-0.3
-2.7
0.1
718.64
-0.4
-2.9
-0.2
-7.1
11,509.09
0.7
0.0
-0.6
8,864.16
2.3
1.4
-13.3
SET50 INDEX
% YTD
19,455.31
1.4
-2.1
-15.5
ENERGY
19,939.12
-1.2
-2.8
KOSPI
1,840.10
3.7
1.5
-10.3
BANK
387.63
0.5
-3.2
-0.9
SHANGHAI COMP
2,482.34
0.1
-0.6
-11.6
ICT
115.48
0.4
0.4
35.7
TAIEX
7,577.40
2.6
-0.4
-15.5
PROPERTY
154.17
-0.0
-3.8
5.9
16,936.83
0.4
0.4
-17.4
CONMAT
7,831.23
-0.2
-2.5
-7.8
JAKARTA COMP
3,835.18
1.6
-4.1
3.6
TRANSPORT
PSE
4,290.17
-0.0
-1.3
2.1
COMMERCE
457.11
-2.9
-0.6
-5.7
MSCI AP EX JAPAN
414.49
2.1
0.0
-13.4
BSE SENSEX
91.49
0.3
-0.9
-20.5
15,656.51
-0.2
-2.9
32.5
MEDIA
55.70
0.4
-3.0
20.6
PETRO
984.14
-0.8
-6.7
-27.2
Source: Bloomberg
6
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
Buy
BBL
KBANK
ADVANC
DTAC
TISCO
AP
SCB
THAI
EGCO
SCCC
PTT
BGH
BEC
STA
TASCO
ROBINS
BECL
MAKRO
STANLY
DCC
520.35
320.97
190.50
202.08
75.84
68.77
77.07
47.08
42.53
33.82
61.13
33.38
30.24
28.28
24.63
36.95
21.25
20.50
18.71
17.87
Sell
113.43
84.16
16.68
41.43
5.02
1.37
23.82
2.79
0.10
1.18
29.87
5.12
2.15
0.80
0.05
12.46
0.37
0.72
0.62
Total
633.78
405.13
207.18
243.51
80.86
70.14
100.89
49.87
42.62
35.00
90.99
38.51
32.39
29.09
24.67
49.41
21.62
21.22
18.71
18.49
Value (Btmn)
Net
406.92
236.82
173.82
160.65
70.82
67.39
53.25
44.29
42.43
32.65
31.26
28.26
28.09
27.48
24.58
24.49
20.89
19.78
18.71
17.26
Buy
SCC
TUF
RATCH
BLA
LH
SPALI
KTB
BAY
TRUE
HEMRAJ
ASP
AOT
PTTEP
INTUCH
TTW
HMPRO
BIGC
CPF
PTTCH
SSI
41.84
4.53
5.10
16.26
1.64
0.31
3.04
58.19
1.68
0.11
0.03
0.29
2.19
24.48
15.91
0.55
17.00
0.93
0.23
Sell
346.01
87.77
72.90
73.46
54.67
34.92
33.84
83.59
26.65
23.39
22.48
22.43
16.55
36.86
12.19
25.33
9.71
22.93
6.04
5.17
Total
387.85
92.30
78.00
89.72
56.31
35.22
36.87
141.79
28.33
23.50
22.51
22.72
18.75
61.34
12.19
41.24
10.26
39.93
6.97
5.40
Net
-304.17
-83.24
-67.80
-57.20
-53.03
-34.61
-30.80
-25.40
-24.97
-23.28
-22.46
-22.14
-14.36
-12.39
-12.19
-9.41
-9.16
-5.93
-5.11
-4.93
520.35
320.97
41.84
202.08
190.50
58.19
77.07
52.55
4.53
61.13
16.26
75.84
5.10
68.77
35.22
24.48
1.64
26.00
47.08
36.95
Value (Btmn)
Sell
Total
113.43
84.16
346.01
41.43
16.68
83.59
23.82
42.92
87.77
29.87
73.46
5.02
72.90
1.37
32.97
36.86
54.67
27.73
2.79
12.46
633.78
405.13
387.85
243.51
207.18
141.79
100.89
95.47
92.30
90.99
89.72
80.86
78.00
70.14
68.19
61.34
56.31
53.73
49.87
49.41
Net
406.92
236.82
-304.17
160.65
173.82
-25.40
53.25
9.63
-83.24
31.26
-57.20
70.82
-67.80
67.39
2.25
-12.39
-53.03
-1.73
44.29
24.49
7
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
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US : Consumer Sentiment
Source: Bloomberg
9
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19 2554
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7+ 23.2%
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*+ 28.4%
&#(43(1># 2 : CDS Spread 5 S<^ 5352.11bps 1&
5426.22bps 5& CDS Spread 5 S'+6
+^ 2 G
442.94bps 1&
451.97bps
Source: Bloomberg
2.
#-+
.. #
@
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( 2.5 7> !06
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7
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8
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+
-*O 2Q54 #@-;*)Q 2551: +3.6% qoq (( 1Q54 +2.7%
qoq 5+
%>(4>76 ')*
EU : Trade Balance
Source: Bloomberg
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
,
3:;1=_'
!
!&%&
10
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
>
+,
1.
2.
* Ted Spread G
0.3513% 76 ')* 0.11bps &(
& &('(')*'+ LIBOR3M 5&+%4%
(172(
5QR 3
!
'(')* 0.11bps &(
(**+ 2 '(')* / &5
=(!(
&0!
+6
&+
6
LIBOR Rate: 3M
US TED Spread
0.80
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.40
(%)
(%)
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10
30-Jul-11
29-Aug-11
30-Jun-11
31-May-11
01-Apr-11
01-May-11
31-Jan-11
02-Mar-11
01-Jan-11
02-Dec-10
03-Oct-10
02-Nov-10
03-Sep-10
05-Jul-10
04-Aug-10
05-Jun-10
06-Apr-10
06-May-10
07-Mar-10
06-Jan-10
05-Feb-10
07-Dec-09
08-Oct-09
07-Nov-09
08-Sep-09
4-Aug-11
15-Sep-11
25-Aug-11
2-Jun-11
14-Jul-11
23-Jun-11
21-Apr-11
31-Mar-11
12-May-11
10-Mar-11
6-Jan-11
27-Jan-11
17-Feb-11
4-Nov-10
16-Dec-10
25-Nov-10
2-Sep-10
14-Oct-10
23-Sep-10
1-Jul-10
22-Jul-10
12-Aug-10
10-Jun-10
8-Apr-10
29-Apr-10
20-May-10
4-Feb-10
18-Mar-10
25-Feb-10
1-Dec-09
14-Jan-10
22-Dec-09
10-Nov-09
8-Sep-09
20-Oct-09
29-Sep-09
Source: Bloomberg
O/
@Q
>
"G! ,/""
+>
#??W"?
@>A
# 5 # 3.5
Term
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
3 Year
5 Year
7 Year
10 Year
Yield
3.42118
3.44811
3.50842
3.49342
3.51358
3.57839
3.67700
Change (bps)
+1.11
+0.48
+0.40
+1.82
+1.00
+2.66
+3.41
658": %
(72(
Q(/(
76 ')*4&+ 1
5
5&+472(
/'++
&+
6
+
&+
6+0++5T'
526
&!+^ 5 3,513 ( 5 8%& 5>+T)+ 2.0 !(
5T<!*526 YTD
+5>&
( 6.60 5(
Thailand : Government Bond Yield Curve
Source: ThaiBMA
Thai Baht Implied Interest Rate Movement
Term
15/09/11
2 Day
3.02
1 Week
2.99
1 Month
2.85
2 Month
2.83
3 Month
2.87
6 Month
2.88
9 Month
2.91
12 Month
3.05
Source: BOT
14/09/11
3.24
3.08
3.11
2.91
2.95
2.91
2.97
3.1
13/09/11
3.25
3
2.97
2.89
2.95
2.94
3.01
3.17
12/09/11
3.25
3.09
2.99
2.99
2.99
2.98
3.07
3.19
09/09/11
3.26
3.1
3.12
3.15
3.15
3.07
3.18
3.32
08/09/11
3.34
3.28
3.27
3.28
3.18
3.13
3.25
3.35
11
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
?#
M
A
# 4
-+
O5 /-
."#
Source: Bloomberg
CDS Spread 43(Vx ># 4: CDS Spread 5 S'+5QR G
49.27bps 1&
50.50bps
0 5+
+
Source: Bloomberg
19 2554
68.00%
70%
90
64.80%
68.20%
0.00%
80
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
60%
70
50%
50
(Probability)
(VIX Index)
60
40
30
40%
33.50%
31.00%
30%
30.20%
30.80%
20
20%
10
22/08/2011
18/07/2011
10/06/2011
06/05/2011
01/04/2011
25/02/2011
20/01/2011
16/12/2010
11/11/2010
07/10/2010
01/09/2010
28/07/2010
23/06/2010
18/05/2010
13/04/2010
08/03/2010
29/01/2010
22/12/2009
16/11/2009
12/10/2009
04/09/2009
31/07/2009
25/06/2009
20/05/2009
15/04/2009
10/03/2009
02/02/2009
24/12/2008
18/11/2008
14/10/2008
09/09/2008
10%
1.70%
0.00%
Sep 13
Source: Bloomberg
1.00%
0.00%
0.40%
0.00%
1.00%
0.00%
0%
Sep 14
Sep 15
Sep 16
Source: Bloomberg
8"
/ -
/ /
1030 ,
5 #
Latest
Institute
Prop
Foreigner
Retail
Prior date
YTD
1,105.66
236.90
-27,477.20
-211.19
472.70
483.31
-938.41
2,068.79
-27,707.80
-1,367.17
218.19
53,116.22
150,000
116,147
810
100,000
53,116
-50,000
2553
2554
1Q54
-27,708
-37,027
2Q54
-711
3Q54
-14,092
Sep 16
-1,367
-65,516
-100,000
(SE T50)
(mn THB)
473
2552
690
650
Prop Trade
Foreign
8,000
4,000
-4,000
530
-8,000
490
-12,000
450
-16,000
29-Jan-10
26-Feb-10
31-M ar-10
30-A pr-10
31-M ay-10
30-Jun-10
30-Jul-10
31-A ug-10
30-S ep-10
29-O ct-10
30-N ov-10
30-D ec-10
31-Jan-11
28-Feb-11
31-M ar-11
29-A pr-11
31-M ay-11
30-Jun-11
29-Jul-11
31-A ug-11
1-S ep-11
2-S ep-11
5-S ep-11
6-S ep-11
7-S ep-11
8-S ep-11
9-S ep-11
12-S ep-11
13-S ep-11
14-S ep-11
15-S ep-11
16-S ep-11
Y TD
Institutions
12,000
3,775
570
Retail
-200,000
16,000
610
-150,000
-162,357
20,000
730
38,013
2551
24,000
SET50
770
81,415
50,000
(no.of contracts)
SET+MAI
5
$ 7!
0 5 + 116
')*4& +5
5
$
7+'1 + (6 l
7$+<!*526&4&+5+&& 2 7(. 84
&
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4
(
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+ 2.87 1
! -0.3% >0&<!*' 1.95 !(.
(
%(:=123
=>;835 6 : 06
^ >0& 473 (. 1&
'52606
^ >0& 938 (. 5&+%4 >0& YTD ^'526
+^ 2.77 !(.
(
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=># 2 =%3 : 06
^ >0& 1.1 7(. 1&
<!*52606
^ >0& 237 (. 5&+%4 >0& YTD ^'526
+^ 2.75 !(.
7$(Prop Trade) '526^4( 3 806
^ >0& 211 (.
%&(2#3!8;5;5: & 7++ -1.2%, PTT -1.9%, PTTEP -1.8%,
ESSO -1.9% & G
0 -0.8%, IVL -1.4%, PTTCH -0.8% & 5
&5+ -0.3%, SCC -0.6%,
TPIPL -0.8% & 20 +0.5%, TISCO +1.2%, BBL +1%, TCAP +0.8%, KBANK +0.8% &
ICT +0.4%, THCOM +1.5%, DTAC +1.4%, ADVANC +0.4%
;(
%(:=5& Short
=3(:
18 32 5;; &(& Long
526 32 5;; &1^G
5T& ^5&+5;;9T)+0 / &!
&
O9$+4
/ 84+
&+
6 5T5267+= &+
& *1( <!*5264
/^4( 7 8
&=+/ &5 T!T)+
+
&+4
/6+(/
&
Source: TFEX
13
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
e=9ee<
!5
> ,/"
"
" ? + ? ?
/-
8> " Safe Haven
&=5
BDI
# 2 > "h-
#
Soft Commodities
! kl, W
/-!5
150
140
1,900
130
120
1,700
100
1,500
(US$/ounce)
(US$/barrel)
110
90
80
1,300
70
60
1,100
50
40
900
30
9/8/11
8/8/11
7/6/11
6/3/11
5/3/11
3/30/11
2/25/11
1/25/11
12/23/10
9/16/10
11/19/10
8/16/10
10/19/10
7/14/10
6/11/10
4/7/10
3/5/10
5/10/10
2/2/10
12/30/09
9/22/09
11/26/09
10/26/09
8/20/09
7/20/09
4/9/09
6/16/09
3/9/09
5/13/09
2/4/09
700
1/2/09
8/26/11
6/3/11
7/15/11
4/21/11
3/10/11
1/27/11
11/3/10
12/16/10
9/22/10
8/11/10
6/30/10
4/6/10
5/18/10
2/23/10
1/12/10
11/27/09
9/3/09
10/15/09
7/23/09
6/10/09
4/28/09
2/2/09
Source: Bloomberg
3/16/09
11/7/08
9/26/08
12/19/08
8/15/08
7/3/08
20
Source: Bloomberg
14
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
>/"
55 .>M
US Dollar Index
95
35.00
34.50
90
34.00
33.50
(THB/US$)
33.00
85
32.50
32.00
80
31.50
31.00
75
30.50
30.00
70
29.50
Source: Bloomberg
16-Dec-08
21-Jan-09
24-Feb-09
30-Mar-09
4-May-09
5-Jun-09
9-Jul-09
12-Aug-09
15-Sep-09
19-Oct-09
20-Nov-09
24-Dec-09
29-Jan-10
3-Mar-10
6-Apr-10
10-May-10
11-Jun-10
15-Jul-10
18-Aug-10
21-Sep-10
25-Oct-10
26-Nov-10
31-Dec-10
3-Feb-11
9-Mar-11
12-Apr-11
17-May-11
20-Jun-11
22-Jul-11
25-Aug-11
65
1-Jul-08
4-Aug-08
5-Sep-08
9-Oct-08
12-Nov-08
9/1/11
8/3/11
7/5/11
6/6/11
5/4/11
3/3/11
2/2/11
3/31/11
1/5/11
12/2/10
9/9/10
11/4/10
10/7/10
8/10/10
7/12/10
6/14/10
5/17/10
4/16/10
3/16/10
2/16/10
1/19/10
12/18/09
11/18/09
9/22/09
8/25/09
10/20/09
7/27/09
6/24/09
5/27/09
29.00
Source: Bloomberg
15
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
7,,#3(=&8
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Consensus
4,=(
16 ..
-EUR3.1 bn
-EUR1.75 bn
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55.7
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57.0
49.0
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21 ..
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49
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48
JPY70.0 bn
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9.9% yoy
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16
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19 2554
:2#3$05=
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Tue
19
Wed
20
Thu
21
Fri
22
JP: Respect-For-The-A
23
JP: Autumnal Equinox D
26
27
28
29
30
Note
US =
HK =
Hong Kong
TH =
CH =
Thailand
China
JP =
JA =
Japan
Jakarta
SK =
TA =
South Korea
Taiwan
PH =
IN =
Philippines
India
SP =
Singapore
19
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
Tuesday
20
Friday
23
MBK : XD @ 2.50
EARTH : XW 18
444,542,535 5:1
SGF : >76 949,977,635
1
5%>T!
6 (1:2@0.10)
TVO : XD @ 0.60
26
BECL : XD @ 0.60
CCP : XW 18 155,000,000 2:1
SLC-W2 : 1+45626 26-30 .. 54 (1 :
0.1749@0.57)
THANI: XR 18 904,853,240 1:1 @ 1.52
27
MATCH-W2 : 1+45626 27-29 .. 54
(1:1@1.40)
MCOT : XD @ 1
28
PHATRA : XD @ 2
29
30
CGD-W1 (SP 30 .. - 26
.0. 54) 75O7 27
.0. 54
GRAND : XR 18 500,266,667 9:2 @1
20
www.kimeng.co.th
19 2554
Disclaimer
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19 2554
THAI INS TITUTE O F DIR ECT O RS ASSO C IATIO N (IO D) C O RPO RATE G O V ERN ANC E REP O RT RATING 2010
AC L
AD VANC
ASIM AR
BAFS
BAN PU
BAY
BC P
BEC L
BKI
BLS
CPN
DRT
EG CO
ERAW AN
G BX
GC
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HEM RAJ
ICC
IRP
IRPC
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KK
KSL
KTB
NC H
NK I
PTT
PTT AR
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PTT EP
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SC B
SC C
SC IB
SE-ED
SIM
SIS
SN C
SSI
T HC O M
T HR E
T IPCO
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T MB
TOP
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Score Range
90-100
80-89
70-79
60-69
50-59
Lower than 50
D escription
Excellent
Very G ood
G ood
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
AC AP
AH C
AKR
AM ATA
AO T
AP
ASK
ASP
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BBL
BEC
BG H
BH
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BM CL
BR O O K
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