Divina Sison

11-12 am/MWF
Prof. Tabuloc

Conditional Probability
1. An Experiment consists of tossing a coin and a die. If E1 is
the event that “head” comes up tossing the coin and E2 is
the event that ‘3 or 6’ cones up in tossing the die, state in
words the meaning of each of the ff:

a. E1E2
b. Pr{E1|E2}
c. E1
d. E2

Answer:
a. Heads on the coin and 3 or 6 on the die.
b. Probability of heads on the coin, given that a 3 or 6 has
come up on the die.
c. Tails on the coin and anything on the die.
d. 1, 2, 4, or 5 on the die and anything on the coin.

Dependent events
Suppose that a box contains 3 white balls and 2 black
balls. Let E1 be the event “first ball drawn is black” and E2 the
event “second ball drawn is black”, where the balls are not
replaced after being drawn. Here E1 and E2 are dependent
events.
The probability that the first ball drawn is black is Pr {E1} =
2/ (3+2) =2/5. The probability that the second ball drawn is
black, given that the first ball drawn was black ,is Pr{E2|
E1}=1/(3+1)=1/4.Thus the probability that both balls drawn
are black is
Pr {E1E2} =Pr {E1} Pr {E2|E1} =2/5 .1/4=1/10
Independent events
Let E1 and E2 be the events “heads on fifth toss” and
“heads on sixth toss” of a coin, respectively. Then E1 and E2
are independent events and thus the probability of heads on
both the fifth and sixth tosses (assuming the coin to be fair)
Pr {E1E2} =Pr {E1} Pr {E2} =
(½)(½)=(¼)

Mutually Exclusive events

If E1 Is the event “drawing an ace from a deck of cards”
and E2 is the event “drawing a king”, then Pr {E1}=4/52=1/3
and Pr{E2}=4/52=1/3. The probability of drawing either an ace
or a king in a single draw is
Pr {E1 + E2} =Pr {E1} + Pr {E2} =1/3 +
1/13=2/13

Non-Mutually events
If E1 is the event “drawing an ace” from a deck of
cards and E2 is the event “drawing a spade”, then E1 and E2
are not mutually exclusive since the ace of spades can be
drawn. Thus the probability of drawing either an ace or a
spade or both is
Pr {E1 + E2} =Pr {E1} + Pr {E2}-Pr
{E1E2} =4/52+13/52-1/52=16/52=4/13

PRODUCT SETS
Prove: A X (B C) = (AXB) (A X C)
A X (B C) = {(x, y): X A, y B C}
= {(x, y): x A, y B, y
C}
= {(X, y): (x, y) A x B,
(x, y) A x C}
= (A x B) (A x C)