BIG REBOUND LED BY MULTIFAMILY SECTOR

Housing Starts Wednesday October 19, 2011

Housing starts jumped 15.0% in September to an annual pace of 658k, much better than expectations for a smaller increase to a rate of 595k. This was the largest increase in new starts since January and their highest level since April 2010 at the height of the tax credit related surge in the housing market. Starts in the previous month were revised slightly higher. Housing starts are now 10.2% higher than their year ago level. Even with fairly big month to month fluctuations, the underlying trend in housing starts has been little changed, averaging 585k a month for the past two years. The outlook is for more of the same going forward with continued uncertainty surrounding the time when the housing recovery and new construction will gain traction. Meanwhile in September, single family housing starts gained 1.7% to an annual rate of 425k as multifamily starts surged 51.3% to a rate of 233k. New single family construction has been range bound at a subdued level over the past two years while new construction starts in the multifamily sector have been quite volatile although they are on a modestly improving trend. Housing permit issuance, often used as a proxy for future construction activity, fell 5.0% in September to a 594k annual rate suggesting that new construction may moderate somewhat in the near term. THOUSANDS OF UNITS
Forecast: Consensus: Actual: 600k 595k* 658k Monthly Sep-11 658 15.0 425 1.7 233 51.3 62 94 339 163 594 -5.0 417 -0.2 177 -14.5 Aug-11 572 -7.0 418 -2.8 154 -16.8 55 86 293 138 625 4.0 418 3.7 207 4.5 Jul-11 615 0.0 430 -4.2 185 11.4 85 90 306 134 601 -2.6 403 0.2 198 -7.9 Jun-11 615 11.2 449 7.9 166 21.2 68 126 288 133 617 1.3 402 -1.0 215 5.9 Three Month 615 Six Month 594 Twelve Month 577 Average for 2010 585 5.6 471 2009 554 -38.4 442 Five Year 1,039 Ten Year 1,438

Housing Starts (percent change) Single Family (percent change) Multi Family (percent change) Northeast Midwest South West Housing Permits (Percent change) Single-Family (Percent change) Multi-Family (Percent change)

424

425

425

808 6.5 231 2.1 113 163 523 239 1,063

1,150 -28.2 288 -60.7 140 259 688 352 1,481

191

169

152

114

112

67 90 313 145 607

64 99 294 137 602

68 93 293 123 586

72 97 296 120 603 3.7 448 1.9 155 9.1

61 95 281 117 582 -35.0 440 -22.5 142 -56.6

413

407

409

761

1,113

194

195

177

302

368

Sources: Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce via Haver Analytics. Data, graph & table courtesy of Insight Economics. *Bloomberg 2011 HousingMatrix, Inc. http://www.HousingMatrix.com All rights reserved. Reproduction and/or distribution are expressly prohibited. Hot Sheet is a registered trademark of HousingMatrix, Inc. Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed.