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Ground Relocation Feature

Location, Location, Location

By Alan Bain
Ham need more seats and that their move to the 2012 Olympic Stadium would bring soul to this part of London which it needs so badly. The consensus opinion appears to be that a new stadium will provide extra capacity for fans, generate additional revenue for the club and from that success for the club will follow. However, does the evidence of the many stadium moves in recent years necessarily mean that attendances will grow and lead to greater success for the team. In view of the controversy surrounding the 2012 Olympic Stadium, we will also ask how important the location of a football club to its fan base is. Since 1986 (when football league attendances fell to their lowest post-war level) twenty-five current Premier and Football League clubs have moved to a new stadium. Since then attendances in the English game have almost doubled from around 16.5m spectators per annum to around 29.5m per annum today, equivalent to 179% growth in attendances. An analysis of the twentyfive current Premier and Football League clubs who have moved to a new stadium location since 1986 shows that they enjoyed growth of 232% in the same period, which obviously outstrips the general growth in attendances considerably. The data certainly seems to support the view therefore that moving to

he proposed move by West Ham United to the 2012 Olympic Stadium site in Stratford is causing significant controversy with Tottenham Hotspur launching a second High Court action requesting that the roles of the Olympic Park Legacy Company (OPLC) and the two government departments involved in the decision are reviewed. This is in addition to their original call for a judicial review of the legality of Newham Councils proposed 40m loan to finance the move. Meanwhile, Leyton Orient, whose Brisbane Road location is less than 3 miles from the 2012 Olympic Stadium, has applied for a judicial review claiming that the proposed move would have a devastating effect on their fan-base. The controversy has not only focussed attention on the difficulties football clubs have in providing modern, safe and comfortable venues that allow clubs to maximise match day revenues but also on the importance that fans attach to a clubs historic location. In Tottenham Hotspurs case, Spurs fan and local MP David Lammy sought legal advice on whether they could continue to be known as Tottenham Hotspur if they moved to Stratford and a group of fans established a We are N17 campaigning group who

An analysis of the twentyfive current Premier and Football League clubs who have moved to a new stadium location since 1986 shows that they enjoyed growth of 232%

believed that the move to Stratford would destroy Tottenham Hotspur. Hammers fans undertook their own survey prior to the final decision being made which concluded that 67% were opposed to the move to the 2012 Olympic Stadium. But why do clubs want to move in the first place? In general terms either a club feels that their ambition is limited by the current capacity of the stadium and need a bigger venue with more seats or the current facilities do not allow them to maximise their revenue streams on matchdays and also on non-matchdays from complementary uses of the site. The Tottenham Hotspur Chairman, Daniel Levy says that the club are committed to taking this club to the next level and an increased capacity stadium is central to that intention. Karren Brady, Vice Chairman at West Ham claims that West

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Figure 1

a new stadium will provide extra capacity for fans and lead to higher attendance growth even when taking into account the general growth in attendances during the same period. A more detailed look at the figures shows that there are significant disparities in terms of that growth though. For example, Cardiff City today are playing in front of 800% more fans than in 1986 whilst Oxford United are playing in front of 35% less fans. The reasons for such a discrepancy could be wide ranging, not least the fact that in

1986 Oxford United were playing in the old 1st Division whilst they are now playing in League 2. However, it is interesting to note that whilst Cardiff City has moved not much more than a goalkick away to the other side of Sloper Road, Oxford United has moved the three miles from leafy suburban Headington to a business park on the very edge of Oxford wedged in by the Blackbird Leys Estate on one side and a water treatment plant on the other. Three miles does not sound far but the median (or average) distance that our twenty-five clubs have

moved since 1986 is only 1.2 miles. So does the distance that a club moves away from their long term home have an effect on the level of attendance growth? Comparing those clubs that have moved more than the average 1.2 miles away from their original home (Bolton Wanderers, Colchester United Coventry, Derby County, Manchester City, Middlesbrough, Northampton Town, Oxford United, Reading, Scunthorpe United, Shrewsbury, Yeovil Town) with those who have moved less than the average 1.2 miles away (Arsenal, Cardiff

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Ground Relocation Feature

Figure 2

City, Chesterfield, Doncaster Rovers, Huddersfield Town, Hull City, Leicester City, Millwall, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea, Wigan Athletic) there is a wide disparity in terms of attendance growth. Since 1986 those that have stayed close to their roots have enjoyed a growth in attendances of 260% whilst those clubs that have strayed further away have only enjoyed growth of 198%, which is not much more than the general 179% growth that all English clubs enjoyed during that period. This is shown in figure 1. This clearly shows that those clubs that have moved further away from their original home have seen flat or declining attendances for the last few years whilst those that didnt move far continued to grow during that same period. The effects of the recession are also clear to see with overall attendances flat since 2007 and even falling slightly in the last year and the clubs that have moved further away from home have seen the most marked decline in attendances during the recession whilst those that have stayed closer to home have bucked the overall trend by continuing to grow. In addition to overall growth, the resilience of attendance growth at those clubs that have moved further away from their original home is in doubt. Figure 2 shows those that stay closer to home

Since 1986 those that have stayed close to their roots have enjoyed a growth in attendances of 260% whilst those clubs that have strayed further away have only enjoyed growth of 198%, which is not much more than the general 179% growth that all English clubs enjoyed during that period.

terms the move to a new stadium improves the league position over time with the average league position improving from 45th to 37th over all four of the top divisions, an improvement of 8 places. However, again there is a marked difference between those clubs that have stayed closer to home who improve their league position by around 10 places whilst those that move further afield only improve their league position by an average of 5 places. The data demonstrates that a move to a new stadium will lead to increased attendances and an improved league position which supports the consensus view that moving to a new stadium will in general bring increased success. These variables are interdependent though and its impossible to say whether one is the result of the other or vice-versa. It is clear that the further a team moves away from its original home the less significant and sustainable are the improvements in attendance and league position. The reasons for this are complex but the love fans have for their clubs original home, the location of the new ground and everything that goes with that should not be underestimated. The future occupants of the 2012 Olympic Stadium, whoever they end up being, would be wise to take this into account.

maintain the initial bounce in attendances over a 4 year period, those that move further away see a gradual decline in attendances once the novelty of the new stadium has worn off. This will obviously be a contributory factor to the trend and suggests that over a longer period those clubs that move further away from home suffer from flat or even declining growth in attendances. There are many other factors of course that affect attendances including price of tickets, the success of clubs on the pitch, the accessibility and comfort of the new stadium and the quality of the matchday experience. In terms of success on the pitch a comparison has been made between the twenty-five clubs league positions prior to their move with the league position after the move. In general