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    The document analyzes election results data from Howrah, India between 2004-2009. It shows vote percentages and numbers for major parties in different constituencies over time. Based on this historical data and applying formulas, it predicts vote shares in 2009. It estimates the Left Front would receive 46.54% of votes, the Trinamool Congress 31.85%, the Congress 16.42% and the BJP 3.72%. It suggests the TMC and Congress could together win close seats, but the outcome would be marginal and uncertain.

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    The document analyzes election results data from Howrah, India between 2004-2009. It shows vote percentages and numbers for major parties in different constituencies over time. Based on this historical data and applying formulas, it predicts vote shares in 2009. It estimates the Left Front would receive 46.54% of votes, the Trinamool Congress 31.85%, the Congress 16.42% and the BJP 3.72%. It suggests the TMC and Congress could together win close seats, but the outcome would be marginal and uncertain.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    74 views4 pages

    Howrah

    Uploaded by

    api-3816754
    The document analyzes election results data from Howrah, India between 2004-2009. It shows vote percentages and numbers for major parties in different constituencies over time. Based on this historical data and applying formulas, it predicts vote shares in 2009. It estimates the Left Front would receive 46.54% of votes, the Trinamool Congress 31.85%, the Congress 16.42% and the BJP 3.72%. It suggests the TMC and Congress could together win close seats, but the outcome would be marginal and uncertain.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 4

    Howrah

    Assembly election 2006 Loksabha Election 2004

    Left Front TMC* Cong BJP* Left Front TMC* Cong

    Bally 54103 23511 9684 1200 82408 14370 11203


    Howrah ( North) 52244 15378 19371 6050 83740 11479 16450
    Howrah (Central) 35470 22540 17008 6400 29836 19286 22001
    Howrah ( South ) 40292 15069 12247 2400 44177 18249 22355
    Shibpur 92479 78476 18567 4700 92668 61815 30313
    Sankrail 66256 61450 10341 5045 60017 39491 28698
    Pnachla 64123 32262 31418 6470 58400 39891 16602

    TOTAL 404967 248686 118636 32265 451246 204581 147622

    Mean Percentage of votes for each Party ( till 2006 )


    Left Front 51.33%
    TMC* 26.95%
    Cong 15.27%
    BJP* 3.63%

    Applying Suitable Formula Prediction for 2009 ( Assembly-constituency w

    Total Votes* Left Front TMC Cong BJP

    Bally 107630 62603 28749 12293 1412


    Howrah ( North) 114331 62038 22092 21083 7119
    Howrah (Central) 90742 36069 25235 21460 6708
    Howrah ( South ) 92268 44962 20887 21784 2635
    Shibpur 205552 90199 82349 26563 4839
    Sankrail 155484 62730 67026 19444 4284
    Pnachla 140085 63097 42256 26182 6750

    TOTAL 906092 421698 288594 148809 33747

    Margin : 1,33,103
    62,101 Votes
    Votes Probable Percentage of votes for each Party ( 2009 )

    Left Front 46.54%


    TMC* 31.85%
    Cong 16.42%
    BJP* 3.72%

    It is almost certain that TMC+Cong could manage to win these sea


    Red Area :P

    TMC alone is capable of winning those

    Very Marginal , Anything can happen ( Difference is less than

    It is marginal for TMC-Cong alliance

    * Approximate Value

    Status : You can't afford to leave Congress out of the equation…

    1.10.2008 In 2004 Swadesh Chakraborty [ CPI(M) ] won by 2,46


    ha Election 2004 Assembly election 2001

    BJP* Left Front TMC* Cong BJP*

    875 92876 21979 10444 1000


    3900 103410 13884 17911 6334
    6200 27834 27717 19505 6974
    2225 55159 29407 17301 2500
    4560 92703 81631 24290 4999
    4980 59622 47784 19520 5295
    6400 59986 32170 25643 6788

    29140 491590 254572 134614 33890

    Party ( till 2006 )

    embly-constituency wise Analysis)

    After De-limitation

    ty ( 2009 ) Swing (%)

    -4.79%
    4.90%
    1.15%
    0.09%

    d manage to win these seats , otherwise these are for the LF


    ( Difference is less than 1% of total number of votes)

    s out of the equation… especially in in


    Howrah
    Howrah

    (M) ] won by 2,46,937 Votes

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