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    The document analyzes voting trends and makes predictions for assembly elections in 2009 in several constituencies in West Bengal based on data from previous elections. It shows voting percentages and margins from 2004 and 2006, applies a formula to predict 2009 results, and finds that while the Left Front currently holds some seats, the Trinamool Congress plus Congress alliance is predicted to win most seats, with a few being too close to call. It identifies Kanthi as a stronghold of a Left Front candidate that may be at risk of flipping to the Trinamool Congress in 2009.

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    The document analyzes voting trends and makes predictions for assembly elections in 2009 in several constituencies in West Bengal based on data from previous elections. It shows voting percentages and margins from 2004 and 2006, applies a formula to predict 2009 results, and finds that while the Left Front currently holds some seats, the Trinamool Congress plus Congress alliance is predicted to win most seats, with a few being too close to call. It identifies Kanthi as a stronghold of a Left Front candidate that may be at risk of flipping to the Trinamool Congress in 2009.

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    18 views4 pages

    Contai

    Uploaded by

    api-3816754
    The document analyzes voting trends and makes predictions for assembly elections in 2009 in several constituencies in West Bengal based on data from previous elections. It shows voting percentages and margins from 2004 and 2006, applies a formula to predict 2009 results, and finds that while the Left Front currently holds some seats, the Trinamool Congress plus Congress alliance is predicted to win most seats, with a few being too close to call. It identifies Kanthi as a stronghold of a Left Front candidate that may be at risk of flipping to the Trinamool Congress in 2009.

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    of 4

    Contai

    Assembly election 2006 Loksabha Election 2004

    Left Front TMC* Cong BJP* Left Front TMC* Cong

    Mugberia 72062 54541 6504 3120 72680 50068 1949


    Patashpur 71928 58955 5808 6255 71241 48783 5767
    Kanthi (N) 66972 63674 5172 1025 65366 55846 6505
    Kanthi (S) 59444 63413 4367 4835 55224 57356 6508
    Khejuri 72996 46008 1826 3780 76469 37491 1304
    Bhagabanpur 57334 61022 2785 965 56700 56075 2931
    Ramnagar 80517 67918 4366 4090 73496 67098 2424

    TOTAL 481253 415531 30828 24070 471176 372717 27388

    Mean Percentage of votes for each Party ( till 2006 )


    Left Front 49.64%
    TMC* 42.39%
    Cong 3.14%
    BJP* 2.66%

    Applying Suitable Formula Prediction for 2009 ( Assembly-constituency wise Anal

    Total Votes* Left Front TMC Cong

    Chandipur 102889 45357 45202 1336


    Patashpur 153284 71064 73925 3674
    Kanthi (N) 147239 66571 73382 4712
    Kanthi (S) 144434 54265 73793 4388
    Khejuri 132323 75783 48843 1639
    Bhagabanpur 130419 56225 69223 1694
    Ramnagar 164894 69965 77976 3568

    TOTAL 975482 439230 462344 21011

    Margin : 23,114
    28,172Votes
    Votes Probable Percentage of votes for each Party ( 2009 )

    Left Front 45.02%


    TMC* 47.37%
    Cong 2.15%
    BJP* 2.24%
    It is almost certain that TMC+Cong could manage to win these seats , otherw

    Red Area :P

    TMC alone is capable of winning those

    Very Marginal , Anything can happen ( Difference is less than 1% of tota

    It is marginal for TMC-Cong alliance

    * Approximate Value

    1.10.2008 Status : Kanthi… aEnd


    Stronghold
    Stronghold
    of Laxman-Zamanaa
    ofofSisir
    SisirAdhikary..
    Adhikary
    ?

    In 2004 Prasanta
    Laxman Seth Pradhan
    [ CPI(M) ] [won
    CPI(M) ] wonVotes
    by 57,380 by
    ha Election 2004 Assembly Election 2001

    BJP* Left Front TMC* Cong* BJP

    3055 64415 55497 4227 3213


    6230 69069 54223 5788 6561
    1040 62288 56930 5839 1097
    4890 49231 57348 5438 5191
    3840 63311 44932 1565 4095
    920 55563 54375 2858 1008
    4170 64528 67684 3395 4495

    24145 428405 390989 29110 25660

    Party ( till 2006 )

    nstituency wise Analysis)

    BJP

    1640
    4707
    1087 After De-limitation
    5186
    3960
    1012
    4298

    21890

    ty ( 2009 ) Swing (%)

    -4.62%
    4.98%
    0.99%
    -0.42%
    o win these seats , otherwise these are for the LF

    ce is less than 1% of total number of votes)

    59,190 Votes

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