Introduction to Demography

Dr L. Kalilani-Phiri Public Health Department Division of Community Health

Study Objectives
Understand the importance of Demography Identify sources of Demographic data

Understand the Demographic Transition Theory

Understand the meaning of population pyramids Understand population dynamics

What is Demography?
The scientific study of human populations Two Greek roots: demos (people) graphy (branch of knowledge regarding a particular science, in this case, human populations)

Demography
It encompasses
Population size
Number of persons in the population

Composition of a population
The distribution of the population among it sex and age groupings

Distribution of a population
The arrangement of the population in space at a given time

Spatial and temporal changes

In size, distribution and composition

Population
the term population refers to a collection of items. Collection of persons alive at a specified point in time who meet certain criteria.

For example, the population of interest may be that of students attending a specific university during a specific year. In this situation, the students are born (i.e., enter) into the population when they enroll, and they die (i.e. leave) when they graduate.

Importance of Demography
There is an association between Demography and social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographic, environmental and health fields. Infrastructure and planning Population structure effects in the world:
Sub Saharan Africa young population + AIDS (lots of orphan children), Vs. North America and Europes older populations (Replacement level of fertility, or Social Security systems in danger).

Globalization
If we know the population trends around the world, marketing companies may take advantage: place factories where there are younger people who can work.

Environment
More resources are needed for more people

Politics
Candidates use demographics to be able to campaign in their favor (i.e., age, sex, race, education have effects on political preference and voting).

Demography
Less developed countries:
High levels of fertility High levels of infant mortality A high prevalence of HIV/AIDS High levels of out-migration to more developed countries

More developed countries:

Low fertility patterns Women having babies at later ages Populations with below replacement levels of fertility Large numbers of migrants from less developed countries

Sources of Demographic Statistics

Direct Methods Vital statistics registries Census National surveys Demographic studies Indirect Methods Sisterhood methods Sibling methods

Population Dynamics
Population changes are due to Fertility, Mortality and Migration

Suppose that a country (or other entity) contains Populationt persons at time t. What is the size of the population at time t + 1 ?
Populationt + 1 = Populationt + Natural increaset + Net migrationt Natural increase from time t to t + 1: Natural increaset = Birthst Deathst Net migration from time t to t + 1: Net migrationt = Immigrationt Emigrationt

Fertility-Definitions
Total fertility rate (TFR)
Number of children a woman will have if she lives through all the reproductive ages and follows the age-specific fertility rates of a given time period (usually one year)

Replacement level fertility Fertility required to keep a population at its current level Crude birth rate (CBR) Number of births per 1000 population General fertility rate (GFR) Number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age Net reproductive rate (R0) Current births plus expected births (RV) Completed fertility rate (CFR) or completed family size (CFS) Number of live births to a woman who has completed reproduction (menopause)

Fertility-Definitions
Gross Reproduction RateNumber of daughters expected to be born alive to a hypothetical cohort of women (usually 1,000) if no one dies during childbearing years and if the same schedule of agespecific rates is applied throughout the childbearing years Net Reproduction RateAverage number of daughters expected to be born alive to a hypothetical cohort of women if the same schedule of age-specific fertility and mortality rates applied throughout the childbearing years

Fertility
Fecundity
Physiological ability to have children Fecundity ranges from 0-30 in females to 0-infinity in males

Factors which limit reproduction

Cultural Social Economic Epidemiological

Mortality
Mortality analyzes the number and causes of death in a society

Crude Death Rate: # Deaths/Midyear Population

Age-Sex-Race specific survival rates: The likelihood that an individual with certain characteristics will survive the year Life Expectancy: The expected number of years an individual will live if they were to live their entire life right now.
In 1900~30 (worldwide) By 2000~70 (worldwide)

Not to be confused with life span

The maximum human life span now seems to be in the 120s. Few people, however, live to be 100

Mortality
Infant Mortality RateNumber of infant deaths per 1000 births Neonatal Mortality RateNumber of deaths of newborns in the first month of life per 1,000 births

Fetal loss
Early fetal loss: < 20 weeks Intermediate: 2027 weeks Late: 28+ weeks

Perinatal Mortality RateNumber of stillbirths and deaths of babies up to one week old per 1,000 births

Mortality
Maternal MortalityDeath of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration or site of the pregnancy, from any cause related to or aggravated by the pregnancy or its management but not from accidental causes (WHO) Maternal Mortality RatioNumber of deaths due to maternal causes per 100,000 births

Maternal Mortality RateNumber of deaths due to maternal causes per 1,000 women of reproductive ages

Mortality
Factors affecting mortality include:
Age Gender Socioeconomic status Race/ethnicity Modernity

Mortality is highly influence by age-structure of the population.

Where a higher percentage of the population is older, death rates tend to be higher Number of years members of an age class can expect to live based on the current death rates of older age classes

Migration
MoverA person who changes residence

MigrantA person who moves from one political area to another Non-migrantNon-movers and local movers
MigrationGeographic or spatial mobility involving a relatively permanent change in usual residence between clearly defined political or statistical units; has dimensions of time and space

Migration-Definitions
In-migrantA person who moves in a political area within the same country ImmigrantAn international migrant who enters the area from a place outside the country Out-migrantA person who moves out of a political area within the same country EmigrantAn international migrant departing to another country by crossing the international boundary Net MigrationIn-migrants -Out-migrants Net ImmigrationImmigrants Emigrants
Note: Net migration for an area often includes both international and internal migration

Gross MigrationIn-migrants + Out-migrants = Migration turnover

Factors that Affect Migration

Factors that affect migration include
Age (Young adults, life cycle changes) Gender (In Africa males migrate, in much of Asia and Latin America females migrate) Education (Extremesboth very poor and very wealthy migrate) Socioeconomic status Depends on the type of job

Source: V. Schoenbach

Trends in Urbanization, by Region

Urban Population
Percent
76 85 74 82

61 54 47 42 37 29 15 17 37 55 53

World

Africa

Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

2030

More Developed Regions

1950

2000

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

This is a model used to represent the process of explaining the transformation of countries from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy.

Why are demographic transitions important?

The combined effect of demographic transitions results in very low population growth The age structure of the population becomes older This has effects on economy, health institutions, educational institutions

The Demographic transition

World regions in the process of demographic transition

birth rate

death rate

Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Patterns of Fertility Decline: Colombia, Kenya, South Korea, and Uganda, 19502005
Children per woman*
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
South Korea Colombia Uganda

Kenya

5 5

6 0

6 5

7 0

7 5

8 0

8 5

9 0

9 5

0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0

1 9

1 9

1 9

1 9

1 9

1 9

1 9

1 9

1 9

9 5

9 5

9 6

9 6

9 7

9 7

9 8

9 8

9 9

*The average total number of children a woman would have given current birth rates. Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).

9 9

2 0

0 5

Africas Population of 1 Billion Is Projected to Grow Rapidly Through 2050.

Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

Population Pyramids
A graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population Population plotted on the X-axis and age on the Y-axis, Population pyramids can be used to find the number of economic dependents being supported in a particular population

POPULATION STRUCTURE The population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area

OLD DEPENDANTS

Population in Five Year Age bands

ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE

YOUNG DEPENDANTS

MALES To the left

Usually, but not always, In % to make for easier comparisons between countries

FEMALES To the right

What Population Pyramids Show Us

Economically More Developed Country Economically Less Developed Country

KEY
slope of pyramid indicate the death rate width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority) "kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different population age groups or different sex on one graph The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country

Population Pyramids related to the Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

IMPLICATIONS Both birth rates and Death rates are High, so population growth rates are slow but population Is usually restored Due to high birth Rate. Short life Expectancy EXAMPLES Scotland before 1760 New Guinea Remote parts of Amazonia

IMPLICATIONS Population starts to grow at an exponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age. Life expectancy rises Infant mortality rate falls.

IMPLICATIONS Population continues to grow but at slower rate. Low C Death Rate. Dramatically declining Crude Birth Rate.

IMPLICATIONS Low Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate Higher dependancy ratio and longer life expectancy Crude Death Rate does Rise slightly because of The ageing population EXAMPLES Scotland today. Japan, USA

EXAMPLES Scotland 1760 - 1830 Republic of Congo

EXAMPLES Scotland 1870 -1950 Algeria, Tunisia Morocco

Types of Populations
Young Population
A population percentage of ages 1-14 over 30% and ages 75 and above under 6% Generally occurring in developing countries

Aging Population
A population percentage of ages 1-14 under 30% and ages 75 and above over 6% Generally occurs in developed countries with adequate health services, e.g. Australia

More Developed Countries Have Fewer Young People Relative to Elderly.

Population by Age and Sex, More Developed Countries: 2009

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

Less Developed Countries Have Far More Young People Relative to Elderly.
Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2009

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

Population perspective

Source: V. Schoenbach

The U.S. Has a Younger Age Structure Than Other Developed Countries.
Population by Age and Sex, United States: 2008

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

Todays Youth Will Be in the Prime Working Ages in 2030.

Population by Age and Sex, United States: 2030 (Projected)

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

Chinas Age Distribution by age and sex, 1964, 1982, and 2000

From Figure 6. Chinas Population by Age and Sex, 1964, 1982, and 2000 from Nancy E. Riley, Chinas Population: New trends and challenges. Population Bulletin 2004: 59(2);21. Original sources: Census Bureau, International Data Base (www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, accessed April 7, 2004); and tabulations from the China 2000 Census.

Perus Population Structure is in Transition.

Population by Age and Sex, Peru: 2006

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

Zambias Population Structure is Youthful.

Population by Age and Sex, Zambia: 2006

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

Mali Has a Very Young Population.

Population by Age and Sex, Mali: 2006

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

The Differences Between Developed and Developing Countries Can Be Stark.

KEY DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS 2009 Population 2050 Population (Projected) Percent of Population Below Age 15 Percent of Population Age 65 and Older Percent of Population Ages 15 to 24 Annual Births Lifetime Births per Woman Annual Infant Deaths Life Expectancy at Birth
Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

CANADA 34 million 42 million 17% 14% 13% 371,000 1.6 1,900 78 years

UGANDA 31 million 96 million 49% 3% 20% 1.4 million 6.7 110,000 50 years

From: Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. Population: A lively introduction, 5th ed, Population Reference Bureau Population Bulletin; 62(1), March 2007.

Source: V. Schoenbach

The Worlds Youth Population Will Become More Concentrated in Africa and Asia.
Population Ages 15-24 by World Region: 1950 and 2050

1950
Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

2050

Other Population Composition Measures Dependency ratio

Sex ratio

Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region

2.5

1.5

0.5

0 1950

1960
Africa

1970

1980

1990
Asia

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Latin America and the Caribbean

Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Figure 5 Sex Ratios at Birth, 1970-1987

114 112

Males / 100 females

110 108 106 104 102 100 1970

Normal sex ratio at birth

1975

1980

1985

Source: Sten Johansson and Ola Nygren, The Missing Girls of China: A New Demographic Account, Population and Development Review Vol. 17, No. 7 (March 1991): Table 1, p. 39 Graph from Population Reference Bureau.
Source: V. Schoenbach

Sex Ratio

Source: V. Schoenbach

Adult Literacy, by Region

Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004
Percent

87 77 70 53

89

91 86 73 77

55

World

Sub-Saharan Latin America Africa and the Caribbean

Female Male

Asia

Arab States

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.

Women and Aging

Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025
Percent

50

46

37

50

54

63

All Ages

Ages 60+
Women Men

Ages 80+

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Ethnicity
There may be a genetic or biological component to race, but in general it is a subjective classification which varies greatly depending on time and place. Ethnicity refers to linguistic and/or cultural heritage and should not be confused with race

College Enrollment Is Lower Among Black and Hispanic Youth.

Enrollment and Employment Status of Persons Ages 18-24, United States: 2007

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey.

Birth Rates Remain Much Higher Among Black and Hispanic Teens.
Births per 1,000 Females Ages 15-19, United States: 1989-2006

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics.

Chronic conditions among older Americans

Source: V. Schoenbach