S2 ASEAN DRFI Forum CCRIF Nov3

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ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING&INSURANCEFORUM
Session2

Regionalcatastropheriskpoolingvehicles: R i l t t h ik li hi l Actingcollectivelytofinancenaturaldisasters
TheexampleoftheCaribbeanCatastropheRiskInsuranceFacility h l f h bb h k l
OlivierMahul ProgramCoordinator,DisasterRiskFinancing&Insurance,TheWorldBank November8 10,2011 Jakarta,Indonesia

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

Catastropherisktransfercanbeveryexpensive
14.00

AllPerils
12.00

Peak:USWindandEarthquake NonPeak:EuroWindandJapanEarthquake Diversifying:Mexico,Japan,Taiwan,Mediterranean, LatinAmerica,AustraliaEarthquake;Japan,AustraliaWind MultiPeril:MultiplePerilsinSameTransaction

Multiple(SpreadPre emium/ExpectedLoss)

10.00 10 00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00 0 00 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

ExpectedLossinBasisPoints

Source:DisasterRiskFinancingandInsuranceProgram(2011)

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

Insurancepricingandriskpooling concepts i i d ik li
Technicalinsurancepremium ( (BEFOREriskpooling) p g)
1. Lowerreinsurance costsduetobetter structuredand diversifiedportfolio Jointreservestoretain thefirstaggregateloss

Technicalinsurancepremium (AFTERriskpooling)

CostofCapital (reservesandcostof risktransfer)

2.

CostofCapital Cost of Capital (reservesandcostof risktransfer) OperatingCosts


Economiesofscaleinoperating costs(e.g.,fixedcosts)

OperatingCosts

AnnualExpectedLoss

Underlyingriskisunchanged

AnnualExpectedLoss

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

Illustrations
CaribbeanCatastropheRiskInsuranceFacility P ifi Di t Ri k I PacificDisasterRiskInsuranceProgram P OpportunitiesandchallengesinASEAN countries

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING RossStein USGS &INSURANCEFORUM

VolkanSevilgen&

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:TheProblem
Highexposuretoadversenaturalevents
HurricaneGilbert(1988)inStLuciacausedlossesof 365%ofnationalGDP 365% of national GDP HurricaneIvan(2004)inGrenadacausedlossesof 203%ofGDP

Li it d fi Limitedfinancialcapacitypostdisaster i l it t di t Limitedcapacitytoestablishnationalreserves Limited capacity to spread risk Limitedcapacitytospreadrisk


geographicallyduetotheirsmallsize overtimeduetohighdebtlevels g

Limitedaccesstoinsurance/reinsurancemarkets

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:TheSolution
AjointreservemechanismthatallowsCaribbean j Governmentstoaccessliquidityatshortnoticeincase ofamajorhurricaneoranearthquake quick disbursing relying on parametric quickdisbursing relyingonparametric insuranceinstruments transparentrules standardparametric insurancepolicies i li i withoutcrosssubsidization contributionare basedoneachisland sspecificrisk based on each islands specific risk atthelowestpossiblecost retainingsome oftheriskwhileleveragingthecapacityof thefinancialmarkets the financial markets

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:Parametricinsurance

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:Catastropheriskpoolingvehicle

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:Policyholderoverview
Maximum per peril coverage Maximumperperilcoverage limitofUS$100M Minimummodeled attachment
1/15yearHurricane 1/20yearEarthquake

Limit and premium metrics Limitandpremiummetrics


Averagemodeledattachment
1/17yearHurricane 1/32yearEarthquake

US$624M f t t l li it i US$624Moftotallimitissued d
US$371MHurricane US$253MEarthquake

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:Reinsurancestructure
CCRIF Reinsurance Structure, 2011/12
Return Period (yrs) 1,401 LAYER 3 TRAD $55M Amount ($ M) 150.0 LAYER 3 CAP MKT $30M

25.2 LAYER 2 $35M 8.8 LAYER 1 $5M 7.1 CCRIF RETENTION $25M $ 1.5

65.0

30.0

25.0

0.0

A Annualaggregateexcess l oflosscoverage Toplayercapacitysplit betweentraditionaland b di i l d capitalmarkets(catswap intermediatedbyWB Treasury) Leadreinsurer:SwissRe Followingmarkets: MunichRe;PartnerRe; HannoverRe;Catlin; Hiscox CATswapwithWB TreasuryandSwissRe

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:Donorsplayedacriticalroleatinception
InitialgrantfromGovernmentofJapanforthepreparation phase(20052007) EstablishmentofadedicatedMultiDonorTrustFund(2006) Establishment of a dedicated Multi Donor Trust Fund (2006) withdonorcontributionsofUS$67million

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

CCRIF:Governancestructure

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

Someimportantlessons
Identifythespecificneedsofthecountries Id tif th ifi d f th ti Design anintegrateddisasterriskfinancingandinsurancestrategy g g gy Designsimpleinsuranceinstruments LinkwithDRMandCCAagenda CreatepositiveexternalitiesbeyondDRFI PoliticalEconomy
Nocrosssubsidization Peerpressureamongcountries Localownership Valuepropositionforalltheparties(client/donor/industry) Value proposition for all the parties (client/donor/industry)

Longtermeffortsthatpaysoff

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

PacificCatastropheRiskAssessmentandFinancingInitiative ifi h ik d i i ii i
Opensource,webmappingtechnologytoshareriskassessmentresultsformore effectiveDisasterRiskManagementinthePacific

BuildingandRoadExposureinFiji

Buildingandroadexposure,PortVila,Vanuatu

TsunamiHazardandEvacuationZonesinFiji

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

PCRAFI:Movingtowardsapplications

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

PacificDisasterRiskFinancingandInsurance
IncreasingthefinancialresilienceofthePICsagainstnaturaldisasters

Developinganintegrated disasterriskfinancing disaster risk financing strategy

(i) Capacitybuildingonmacroeconomic planningofnaturaldisastersandintegrated planning of natural disasters and integrated disasterriskfinancingandinsurance; (ii) Developmentofprivatedisasterrisk insurancemarkets; (iii) PilotingofPacificdisasterriskinsurance programforgovernments.

ASEANDISASTERRISKFINANCING &INSURANCEFORUM

Regionalcatastropheriskpoolingvehicle(s)for ASEANCountries?

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