2009 Official Poverty Statistics

Presented by DR. ROMULO A. VIROLA

Secretary General

National Statistical Coordination Board

08 February 2011 NSCB Operations Room, Makati City

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 0 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Outline of the Presentation

I.

The 2009 official poverty statistics

II. Other details III. Comparison of the estimates using the old methodology and the refined methodology IV. Next Steps/Future Activities

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 1 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL:

A Filipino needed PhP 974 in 2009 to meet his/her monthly food needs and PhP 1,403 to stay out of poverty!
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -

Monthly Per Capita Food Threshold (in PhP)

2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400

Monthly Per Capita Poverty Threshold (in PhP)

1,403
1,112 915

974 631 332

1991 2003 2006 2009

1,200 1,000 800

771
26%

600 400 200 1991 2003 2006 2009

481

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 2 RAV/ 08 February 2011

Inflation for food: 2006-2009: 24.3%

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL:

In 2009, family of five* needed PhP 4,869 monthly income to meet food needs and PhP 7,017 to stay out of poverty!
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1991 2003 2006 2009
Inflation for food: 2006-2009: 24.3%
PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 3 RAV/ 08 February 2011

Monthly Food Threshold for a Family of Five (in PhP)

8,000 7,000

Monthly Poverty Threshold for a Family of Five (in PhP) 7,017

4,869
3,857 3,157 1,660
26%

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1991

5,562 4,573 2,407

26%

2003 2006 2009

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

NATIONAL: In 2009, a family of five needed PhP 231 daily income to stay out of poverty!
Family size Required income (in PhP) Daily Monthly Annual

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 4 RAV/ 08 February 2011

46 92 138 185

1,403 2,807 4,210 5,614

16,841 33,682 50,523 67,364

231
277 323 369

7,017
8,421 9,824 11,227

84,205
101,046 117,887 134,729

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL: Subsistence incidence among families improved from 8.7% in 2006 to 7.9% in 2009. One family per 100 was lifted out of food poverty between 2006 and 2009!
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1991
Subsistence Incidence among Families (%)

30.0 25.0 20.0

28.3

Poverty Incidence among Families (%)

21.1 20.0
(0.2)

13.3 8.2 8.7

(0.8)

15.0 10.0

20.9

7.9

5.0 0.0 1991 2003 2006 2009

2003 2006 2009

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 5 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL: In terms of poverty incidence among families, there was only a slight reduction during the three-year period from 21.1% in 2006 to 20.9% in 2009.
Subsistence Incidence among Families (%) Poverty Incidence among Families (%)

30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1991

30.0 25.0 20.0

28.3

21.1 20.0
(0.2)

13.3 8.2 8.7

(0.8)

15.0 10.0

20.9

7.9

5.0 0.0 1991 2003 2006 2009

2003 2006 2009

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 6 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL:

Subsistence incidence among population improved from 11.7% in 2006 to 10.8% in 2009! One Filipino per 100 was lifted out of food poverty between 2006 and 2009! Subsistence Incidence Poverty Incidence 35 among Population (in %) among Population (in %)
30 25

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991

33.1

26.4 26.5 24.9

0.1

16.5 11.7 11.1

(0.9)

20 15

10.8

10 5 0

2003 2006 2009

1991

2003 2006 2009

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 7 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL:

In terms of poverty incidence among population, there was a very slight increase during the three-year period from 26.4% in 2006 to 26.5% in 2009.
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991 2003 2006 2009
PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 8 RAV/ 08 February 2011

Subsistence Incidence among Population (in %)

35 30 25

33.1

Poverty Incidence among Population (in %)

26.4 24.9

26.5
0.1

16.5 11.7 11.1

(0.9)

20 15

10.8

10 5 0 1991 2003 2006 2009

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL: Magnitude of subsistence poor families decreased by about 58,000 from
1.51 million in 2006 to 1.45 million in 2009! However, in terms of magnitude of poor families, there was an increase of about 185,000 from 3.67 million in 2006 to 3.86 million in 2009! Magnitude of Subsistence Poor Families (in million) Magnitude of Poor Families (in million) 3.86 3.67
3.39 3.29

2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 -

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00

1.60 1.36

1.51 1.45
(4.0%)

5.2%

1991

2003 2006 2009

1991

2003 2006 2009

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 9 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL: Magnitude of subsistence poor population decreased by about 410,000 in
2009 from 9.9 million in 2006 to 9.4 million in 2009! The magnitude of poor population increased by almost 970,000 Filipinosfrom 22.2 million in 2006 to 23.1 in 2009 by 4.4%.
15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 1991 2003 2006 2009

Magnitude of Subsistence Poor Population (in million)

25.00 24.00 23.00 22.00

Magnitude of Poor Population (in million)

22.17 20.89 19.80

23.14

10.40 8.80

9.85

21.00 20.00

4.4 %

9.44
(4.2%)

19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 1991

2003

2006

2009

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 10 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

NATIONAL: While food poverty and poverty deteriorated between 2003 and 2006, these improved between 2006 and 2009 except for the increases in the poverty incidence among population, magnitude of poor families and magnitude of poor population. The increases, however, were not as much as between 2003 and 2006! Summary of increases/decreases: Indicator 2003 to 2006 2006 to 2009 AMONG FAMILIES Subsistence Incidence, Families Poverty Incidence, Families Magnitude of Food Poor Families Magnitude of Poor Families AMONG POPULATION Subsistence Incidence, Population Poverty Incidence, Population Magnitude of Food Poor Population
PressCon on theof Poor Population Magnitude 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 11 RAV/ 08 February 2011

+ 0.5 + 1.1 + 154,000 + 378,000 +0.6 + 1.5 +1.05 million +2.38 million

- 0.8 - 0.2 - 58,000 + 185,000 - 0.9 + 0.1 - 0.41 million + 0.97 million

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

NATIONAL: Income shortfall of the poor and severity of poverty decreased between 2006 and 2009!
FGT measure Income gap Total Cost (in pesos) Per Capita Cost
(in pesos)

2003 27.7 60.2 B 3,040 5.6 48.8 B 615 2.2

2006 27.2 80.5 B 3,631 5.7 63.9 B 761 2.2

2009

Inc/Dec 03-06 06-09 0.1 (1.5) 24.4 19.2 0.74 (3.0) (37.9) (40.2) 0.3 (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) 33.7 19.4 0.1 (1.0) 31.1 23.8 (0.6) (0.0)

25.7
100.2 B 4,328

Poverty gap Total Cost (in pesos) Per Capita Cost

(in pesos)

2.7
39.7 B 455

Severity of poverty

2.0

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 12 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

Average per capita income of the bottom 10% of families rose faster than prices of food!
Indicator Subsistence Incidence (among families) Inflation (food) Inflation (all items) Annual Per Capita Food Threshold Mean/average per capita income (APCI) All income groups 35,788 43,538 21.7 2006 8.7 130.7 137.9 9,257 2009 7.9 162.4 160.0 11,686 % Change (9.1) 24.3 16.0 26.2

First decile class

Second decile class Third decile class Fourth decile class Fifth decile class Sixth decile class Seventh decile class Eight decile class Ninth decile class Tenth decile class
PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 13 RAV/ 08 February 2011

7,389
11,263 14,599 18,249 22,781 28,493 36,551 48,200 69,335 151,130

9,681
14,542 18,542 23,003 28,281 35,068 44,358 58,362 83,662 184,997

31.0
29.1 27.0 26.0 24.1 23.1 21.4 21.1 20.7 22.4

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

Average per capita income of the bottom 30% of families rose faster than prices of all items!
Indicator Poverty Incidence (among families) Inflation (food) Inflation (all items) Annual Per Capita Poverty Threshold Mean/average per capita income (APCI) All income groups 35,788 43,538 21.7 2006 21.1 130.7 137.9 13,348 2009 20.9 162.4 160.0 16,841 % Change (0.2) 24.3 16.0 26.2

First decile class Second decile class Third decile class

Fourth decile class Fifth decile class Sixth decile class Seventh decile class Eight decile class Ninth decile class
PressCon on the classOfficial Poverty Statistics Tenth decile 2009 Slide No. 14 RAV/ 08 February 2011

7,389 11,263 14,599

18,249 22,781 28,493 36,551 48,200 69,335

9,681 14,542 18,542

23,003 28,281 35,068 44,358 58,362 83,662

31.0 29.1 27.0

26.0 24.1 23.1 21.4 21.1 20.7

151,130 184,997 22.4 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics NATIONAL: The income distribution continues to improve!
Year 2003 2006 2009
Gini coefficients of ASEAN countries
Country Singapore Brunei Darussalam Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Myanmar Gini coefficient 0.425 no data 0.379 0.425 0.394 0.378 0.326 0.407 no data USA Australia Canada Japan France Sweden Finland Switzerland Italy

Gini coefficient 0.4605 0.4580 0.4484

Country

(0.0025) (0.0096)
Gini coefficient 0.408 0.352 0.326 0.249 0.327 0.250 0.269 0.337 0.360

Gini coefficients of selected developed countries

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 15 RAV/ 08 February 2011

Source of data: Human Development Report 2009, UNDP NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics REGIONAL: Caraga and ARMM consistently posted the highest poverty incidence among families in 2006 and 2009!
Region PHILIPPINES Poverty incidence among families 2003 2006 2009 20.0 21.1 20.9

Caraga ARMM Region IX

Region V Region VIII Region X Region VII Region XII Region IV-B Region XI Region VI Region I CAR Region II Region III Region IV-A PressCon on theNCROfficial Poverty Statistics 2009

37.6 25.0 40.5

38.0 30.2 32.4 32.1 27.2 29.8 25.4 23.5 17.8 16.1 15.2 9.4 9.2 2.1

36.9 36.5 34.2

36.1 31.1 32.7 33.5 27.1 34.3 26.2 22.1 20.4 18.6 15.5 12.0 9.4 3.4

39.8 38.1 36.6

36.0 33.2 32.8 30.2 28.1 27.6 25.6 23.8 17.8 17.1 14.5 12.0 10.3 2.6

Slide No. 16 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics REGIONAL: Regions VII, V, and VI continue to have the biggest share in the total number poor families!
Region PHILIPPINES Magnitude of Poor Families 2003 2006 2009 3,293,096 3,670,791 3,855,730

% Share to Total Poor Families 2003 2006 2009 100.0 100.0 100

Region VII Region V Region VI

389,818 358,981 298,058

432,870 415,303 364,318 385,338 302,836 345,703

287,156 275,433 248,179 244,273 242,285 226,284 224,882 218,043 187,278 179,179 162,609 94,433 64,404 54,949

11.8 10.9 9.1

6.9 7.3 6.1 5.2 7.2 6.3 5.8 3.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 2.7 1.5 1.4

11.8 9.9 8.2

6.9 7.0 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.5 5.3 4.5 5.3 5.1 2.6 2.2 1.5

10.8 10.0 9.0

7.4 7.1 6.4 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.7 4.9 4.6 4.2 2.4 1.7 1.4

Region VIII 227,458 253,347 Region X 239,874 257,640 Region IV-A 201,725 210,830 Region III 169,771 228,741 Region IX 237,898 224,378 Region XI 205,966 220,707 Region XII 192,545 203,000 ARMM 126,233 194,626 Caraga 156,221 163,783 Region I 156,261 193,392 Region IV-B 148,924 186,838 Region II 89,352 96,311 NCR 48,923 80,828 CAR PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics 45,088 56,346 Slide No. 17
RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

REGIONAL: 8 of 17 regions had decreasing poverty incidence between 2006 and 2009, only 5 regions between 2003 and 2006!

PHILIPPINE S
Region IV-B Region VII Region I CAR Region II NCR Region XI Region V

Region

Poverty incidence among families 2003 2006 2009

Increase/Decrease 03-06 06-09

20.0
29.8 32.1 17.8 16.1 15.2 2.1 25.4 38.0

21.1
34.3 33.5 20.4 18.6 15.5 3.4 26.2 36.1

20.9
27.6 30.2 17.8 17.1 14.5 2.6 25.6 36.0 4.5 1.4 2.6 2.4 0.3 1.3 0.9 (1.9) (6.7) (3.2) (2.6) (1.5) (1.1) (0.8) (0.6) (0.1)

Region III 9.4 Region X 32.4 Region IV-A 9.2 Region XII 27.2 ARMM 25.0 Region VI 23.5 Region VIII 30.2 Region IX 40.5 PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 18 RAV/ 08 February 2011 Caraga 37.6

12.0 12.0 2.6 0.1 32.7 32.8 0.2 0.2 9.4 10.3 0.1 0.9 27.1 28.1 (0.1) 1.0 36.5 38.1 11.4 1.7 22.1 23.8 (1.4) 1.7 31.1 33.2 1.0 2.1 34.2 36.6 (6.3) 2.4 36.9 39.8 (0.7) 3.0 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics

Batanes, the 4 districts of NCR, Benguet, Cavite, Bulacan, Laguna, Rizal, and Pampanga were consistently included in the least poor cluster of provinces in 2003, 2006, and 2009!
New entrants in the least poor cluster of provinces in 2009 were Ilocos Norte, Bataan, and Nueva Vizcaya!
2003 Province
Poverty incidence 90% CI Upper Lower limit limit Poverty incidence

2006
90% CI Upper Lower limit limit Poverty incidence

2009
90% CI Lower Upper limit limit

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 19 RAV/ 08 February 2011

Batanes 4th District 2nd District Benguet 1st District 3rd District Nueva Vizcaya Cavite Bulacan Laguna Rizal Bataan Pampanga Ilocos Norte

6.3 1.8 2.6 4.4 1.1 2.6 3.2 4.8 4.3 5.2 2.9 8.1 4.9 14.3

6.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.4 1.7 1.8 3.4 2.9 3.5 1.9 5.1 3.5 7.9

6.3 2.4 3.4 7.1 1.7 3.5 4.6 6.2 5.7 6.9 3.9 11 6.3 20.6

0 2.9 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.7 5.8 4.2 5.1 4.5 2.7 7.2 3.8 11.3

0 2 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.6 1.4 2.6 3.7 3 1.6 4 2.4 5.8

0 3.7 5.5 5 4.5 4.8 10.3 5.7 6.6 6 3.7 10.5 5.2 16.9

0 1.6 2.4 4 3.8 3.8 6.7 4.5 4.8 5.9 6.5 7.4 6.7 9.2

0 0.7 1.6 2 2 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.8 4.9 6.1

0 2.5 3.2 6.1 5.6 5.1 10.5 5.9 5.9 7.6 8.7 10 8.4 12.3

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Zamboanga del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Maguindanao, Bohol, and Masbate were consistently included in the bottom cluster of provinces in 2003, 2006, and 2009!
2003 2006 2009 Poverty 90% CI Poverty 90% CI Poverty 90% CI incidence Lower limit Upper limit incidence Lower limit Upper limit incidence Lower limit Upper limit 48.5 41.3 55.6 45.5 38.2 52.9 51.2 43.5 58.9 Agusan del Sur 10.7 3.4 18.0 37.0 24.6 49.4 36.3 23.2 49.4 Apayao 40.2 33.8 46.7 43.7 35.8 51.6 41.0 33.6 48.4 Bohol 40.7 28.6 52.9 30.4 21.6 39.2 32.3 25.3 39.2 Camarines Norte 38.3 32.5 44.1 36.6 31.0 42.3 38.7 33.8 43.6 Camarines Sur 35.1 31.5 38.7 37.8 21.9 53.7 36.4 25.9 46.8 Camiguin 35.6 26.7 44.4 39.0 28.0 50.1 42.5 36.4 48.6 Davao Oriental 29.8 20.5 39.0 37.6 31.8 43.5 45.8 37.6 54.1 Eastern Samar 35.6 27.0 44.1 34.3 28.1 40.6 39.0 31.9 46.1 Lanao del Norte 41.9 34.4 49.5 44.9 39.0 50.9 44.6 37.7 51.6 Maguindanao 50.2 42.3 58.0 42.9 33.9 51.8 42.5 36.6 48.3 Masbate 37.0 30.6 43.4 38.2 30.7 45.7 36.9 29.7 44.1 Misamis Occidental 43.6 35.6 51.5 44.4 36.1 52.7 36.4 29.5 43.2 Negros Oriental 37.4 27.9 47.0 43.3 32.9 53.8 41.7 32.4 51.0 Northern Samar 32.6 24.9 40.3 40.6 30.4 50.7 25.4 18.3 32.4 Occidental Mindoro 35.8 27.9 43.7 40.6 34.7 46.6 43.0 36.3 49.8 Romblon 36.7 28.4 45.1 34.0 29.2 38.8 40.7 34.0 47.3 Saranggani 45.5 27.4 63.5 25.8 13.9 37.6 32.8 21.3 44.3 Siquijor 37.3 28.1 46.5 38.7 30.9 46.5 35.2 28.8 41.7 Sultan Kudarat 20.3 13.4 27.1 36.7 29.1 44.2 39.3 33.0 45.5 Sulu 42.3 35.2 49.4 41.6 34.9 48.3 47.9 43.1 52.8 Surigao Del Norte 18.2 8.1 28.2 49.1 39.8 58.4 31.5 22.2 40.8 Tawi-tawi 59.5 51.4 67.5 54.1 46.4 61.7 52.9 46.0 59.8 Zamboanga del Norte 43.3 33.3 53.2 34.1 25.7 42.5 43.2 35.4 50.9 Zamboanga Sibugay Province

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 20 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics PROVINCIAL: Cebu and Negros Occidental continue to have the biggest share in the total number of poor families!
Province PHILIPPINES Cebu Negros Occidental Camarines Sur Pangasinan Nueva Ecija Leyte Zamboanga del Norte Bohol Quezon Davao del Sur Negros Oriental Magnitude of Poor Families 2003 3,293,096 185,624 112,512 116,460 92,191 64,808 99,082 102,074 90,735 84,031 88,165 105,334 2006 3,670,791 211,406 130,077 119,747 128,396 94,026 104,260 101,511 104,032 101,394 89,452 112,585 2009 3,855,730 213,162 144,828 126,280 114,400 112,367 110,214 109,745 102,522 98,426 94,049 91,387 % Share to Total Poor Families 2003 100 5.6 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.2 2006 100 5.8 3.5 3.3 3.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.4 3.1 2009 100 5.5 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 21 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details NATIONAL: Income share of 1st to 7th income decile classes increased between 2006 and 2009!
INCOME DECILE FIRST TO THIRD FIRST SECOND THIRD FOURTH TO SEVENTH FOURTH FIFTH SIXTH SEVENTH EIGHTH TO TENTH EIGHTH NINTH TENTH 2003 8.4530 1.8055 2.8724 3.7751 26.8363 4.6779 5.8268 7.2220 9.1096 64.7066 11.8588 16.5778 36.2700 2006 8.5496 1.8629 2.9275 3.7591 26.6467 4.6574 5.7884 7.1524 9.0486 64.7372 11.8762 16.8663 35.9947 2009 9.0168 1.9716 3.1020 3.9432 27.2082 4.8370 5.9148 7.2818 9.1746 63.7750 11.8559 16.5878 35.3312 7.0729 17.9200 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE 2003-2006 +0.0966 +0.0574 +0.0551 -0.0160 -0.1896 -0.0205 -0.0384 -0.0696 -0.0610 +0.0306 +0.0174 +0.2885 -0.2753 -0.0829 -0.7672 2006-2009 +0.4673 +0.1087 +0.1745 +0.1841 +0.5615 +0.1797 +0.1264 +0.1294 +0.1260 -0.9622 -0.0203 -0.2785 -0.6634 -0.4991 -1.4014

Ratio of Top 30% over 7.6549 7.5720 Bottom 30% Ratio of Top 10% over 20.0886 19.3214 BottomPressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics 10%
Slide No. 22 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details REGIONAL: Increase in the average per capita income was faster than the increase in prices of food in only 6 of the 17 regions!
Subsistence Incidence (Families) REGION 2006 (1) (2) 2009 (3) % Change 06-09 (4) NOMINAL AVERAGE Per Capita Income (APCI) 2006 (5) 2009 (6) % Change 06-09 (7) 2006 (8) CPI for Food 2009 (9) % Change 06-09 (10) %APCI %CPI 06-09 (11)

PHILS

8.7

7.9

(0.8) 35,788 43,538

77,462 46,694 40,239 40,791 46,944 53,029 29,727 30,264 34,147 37,850 33,157 30,181 34,500 35,835 32,975 29,526 21,273

21.7
17.2 16.8 34.3 32.2 15.6 17.1 37.4 22.2 23.6 29.7 32.4 18.3 21.2 27.8 35.8 29.4 26.6

130.7
127.8 128.4 135.3 132.0 129.7 125.5 131.6 129.7 127.6 143.9 132.0 132.3 135.1 136.5 132.2 136.0 143.9

162.4
153.5 158.4 167.4 165.3 159.7 154.9 163.1 162.8 164.2 176.4 176.2 169.8 172.3 173.3 166.3 177.5 190.6

24.3
20.1 23.4 23.7 25.2 23.1 23.4 23.9 25.5 28.7 22.6 33.5 28.3 27.5 27.0 25.8 30.5 32.5

(2.6)
(2.9) (6.6) 10.6 7.0 (7.5) (6.3) 13.5 (3.3) (5.1) 7.1 (1.1) (10.0) (6.3) 0.8 10.0 (1.1) (5.9)

(0.3) 66,106 NCR 0.7 0.4 (0.7) 39,989 CAR 8.3 7.6 (1.6) 29,966 Region I 7.1 5.5 (0.2) 30,846 Region II 4.3 4.1 0.1 40,595 Region III 3.7 3.7 (0.3) 45,276 Region IV-A 2.8 2.4 7.8 21,631 Region IV-B 2.8 10.5 (2.9) 24,766 Region V 15.7 12.9 0.0 27,635 Region VI 7.9 7.9 (3.8) 29,189 Region VII 17.1 13.2 0.9 25,042 Region VIII 13.5 14.4 0.6 25,515 Region IX 17.9 18.6 (0.6) 28,460 Region X 16.3 15.6 (1.1) 28,037 Region XI 12.1 11.0 0.5 24,281 Region XII 10.8 11.3 2.8 22,821 Caraga 16.9 19.7 PressCon on the 2009 Official8.5 Poverty Statistics (3.1) 16,809 ARMM 11.6 Slide No. 23 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details

REGIONAL (FOR NCR): A family of five in Metro Manila needed PhP 8,251 per month in 2009 to keep out of poverty!
Family size Required income (in PhP) Daily Monthly Annual

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 24 RAV/ 08 February 2011

54 109 163 217

1,650 3,300 4,950 6,601

19,802 39,604 59,406 79,208

271
326 380 434

8,251
9,901 11,551 13,201

99,010
118,812 138,614 158,416

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details

REGIONAL (FOR NCR): A minimum wage earner* in Metro Manila can support a family of at most six members in 2009, to be classified as non-poor!
Family size Required monthly income (in PhP) Monthly Income of a Minimum Wage Earner in 2009 Non-agriculture (PhP 382/day) Agriculture (PhP 345/day)

1 2 3 4

1,650 3,300 4,950 6,601

9,932 9,932 9,932 9,932 9,932

8,970 8,970 8,970 8,970

5 6
7 8

8,251 9,901
11,551 13,201

8,970
8,970 8,970 8,970

9,932
9,932 9,932

Minimum wage earner in Metro Manila employed in the non-agriculture sector. Rate is effective 28 August 2008, per Wage order No. 14 (Source of data: http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989-present_non-agri.html ) For this exercise, number of working days considered in a month is 26. PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 25 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details

Some positive events between 2006 and 2009:

Period July 2009 Event Increase in the salaries of government employees with the implementation of the 1st of four parts of the Salary Standardization Law III. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) implemented in 161 municipalities in 2008 41.6% in Luzon, 14.9% in Visayas, and 43.5% in Mindanao. CCT was implemented in 277 municipalities 36.5% in Luzon, 22.4% in Visayas, and 41.1% in Mindanao.

2008

2009

February 2009

Start of application for the Project on Nurses Assigned in Rural Service by the DOLE, DOH, and the Professional Regulation Commission, Board of Nursing (PRC-BON). The Project involved the training/deployment of unemployed registered nurses in the 1,000 poorest PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics cities/municipalities of the country.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Slide No. 26 RAV/ 08 February 2011

II. Other Details

Some negative events between 2006 and 2009: Period 2006-2009 Event Rice price crisis: Price of ordinary rice increased by 44.2%, from PhP 21.28/kg in 2006 to PhP 30.69 in 2009 Global financial crisis Start of El Nio Start of the increase in alert level of Maon Volcano

2008 June 2009 July 2009

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 27 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details

Some negative events between 2006 and 2009:

Some typhoons/calamities in 2009
Typhoon/Calamity 1. Pepeng 2. Ondoy 3. Ramil Period Covered Sept. 24 - 27, 2009 Sept. 30 Oct. 11, 2009 Oct. 20-26, 2009 Estimated Cost of Damage PhP 27.195 billion PhP 11.121 billion PhP 87 million in Cagayan Valley Area(s) affected NCR, CAR, I, II, III, IV-A, IV-B, V, IX NCR, CAR, I, II, III, IV-A, IV-B, V, IX CAR, Regions I and II

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 28 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details

National:
With the latest 2009 poverty estimates, the probability of halving poverty, between 1990 and 2015, has gone down but remains at medium!
Indicator Poverty incidence among population
Pace of Progress
High: Pace of Progress is greater than 0.9 Medium: Pace of Progress between 0.5 and 0.9 Low: Pace of Progress is less than 0.5

Target 16.6

1991 33.1

2003

2006

2009

24.9 (Baseline) 0.99

26.4 0.65

26.5 0.53

Notes: The pace of progress is computed as the ratio of the actual annual growth rate and required annual growth rate.

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 29 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details As of 2009, the Philippines was eight years behind target on poverty reduction! Only NCR, CAR, Regions II and IV-A are ahead of their targets!
10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0
Re gi on I Re gi on II Re gi on III Re gi on IV -A Re gi on IV -B Re gi on V Re gi on VI Re gi on VI I Re gi on VI II Re gi on X Re gi on XI Re gi on XI I R Ph il ip pi ne s CA R NC

5.0 0.5 -2.3 -8.4 0.5

3.2

-3.8 -8.3 -9.6

-5.6 -10.2 -14.1 -8.3 -12.0

-4.0

Notes: Time-distance (years): positive (+) time lead (progress is ahead the path to target) Negative ( - ) time lag (Progress is behind the path to target)

The time distance is a new generic statistical measure for analysis and visualization of time series data. This was first developed by Prof. Pavle Sicherl of the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 30 RAV/ 08 February 2011

Region IX, Caraga, and ARMM are 27, 21, and 81 years behind the target in 2009.

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Other Details

NATIONAL: In terms of poverty incidence among population in ASEAN countries, the Philippines is better off than Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Cambodia; but behind Vietnam (14.5%) and Indonesia (14.2%).
Country Poverty Incidence Among Popn. Year

Lao PDR Myanmar Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Brunei Darussalam Singapore
PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 31 RAV/ 08 February 2011

33.5 32.0 30.1 26.5 14.5 14.2 8.5 3.6

2003 2005 2007 2009 2008 2009 2008 2007

Note: Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but is not classified as a developing member country. Sources: Millennium Indicators Database Online (UNSD 2010), Pacific Regional Information System (SPC 2010), country sources. (http://www.adb.org/documents/books/key_indicators/2010/pdf/Key-Indicators-2010.pdf )

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Comparison of the Estimates Using the Old and Refined Methodologies On the average, the food thresholds and the poverty thresholds are higher by 8% and 13%, respectively, using the old methodology as compared to the refined methodology!
Food Threshold for a Family of Five (in Php) Poverty Threshold for a Family of Five (in Php)

8,000 6,000

8,000
6,274

7,953 7,017

13.3%

5,298 4,177
8.8%

6,000 4,000 2,000

5,129
12.1%

12.8%

4,000 2,000

3,395
7.5%

8.3%

4,869

5,562

4,573

3,157

3,857

2003 Old

2006 Refined

2009

2003

2006

2009

Old

Refined

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 32 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Comparison of the Estimates Using the Old and Refined Methodologies The same trends in subsistence and poverty incidence among families were observed, whether the old or whether the refined methodology. Subsistence incidence and poverty incidence are higher by about 2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, using the old methodology as compared to the refined methodology.
Subsistence Incidence among Families (%) Poverty Incidence among Families (%) 30.0 26.9 26.3 24.4
20.0
4.4 5.8 5.4

20.0

21.1

20.9

1.9

2.3

2.4

10.0

0.0 2003
Old
PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 33 RAV/ 08 February 2011

2006
Refined

2009

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Comparison of the Estimates Using the Old and Refined Methodologies The same trends were observed in subsistence and poverty incidence among population!

Subsistence Incidence among Population (%)

Poverty Incidence among Population (%)

9.7

10.2

10.8

2.5

2.8

3.1

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 34 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Comparison of the Estimates Using the Old and Refined Methodologies Magnitude of food poor and magnitude of poor families are higher by about 27% and 26%, respectively, using the old methodology as compared to the refined methodology.

Magnitude of Subsistence Poor Families (in million)

5 4 3
5.0

Magnitude of Poor Families (in million)

4.7 4.0 3.3
10.2 27.0%

4.9
25.6% 10.8 3.9

4.0

9.721.2%

3.0

3.7

1.9
2 1 0 2003 2006 2009

1.7 1.4

21.4%

26.7%

26.7%

2.5

1.5

2.8

1.9 1.5

2.0

3.1

1.0

0.0 2003 2006 2009

Old

Refined

Old

Refined

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 35 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Comparison of the Estimates Using the Old and Refined Methodologies Basically, similar trends were observed in the magnitude of poor population and the magnitude of subsistence poor population.

Magnitude of Subsistence Poor Population (in million)

30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2003 Old 2006 Refined 2009
30.0 25.0 20.0

Magnitude of Poor Population (in million)

27.6 23.8 19.8
24.3% 20.2%

28.5 23.4% 23.1

22.2

12.2 10.8 8.8

22.7% 23.2%

15.0

12.2 29.8% 9.4

10.0 5.0 0.0 2003 Old 2006 Refined 2009

9.9

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 36 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Comparison of the Estimates Using the Old and Refined Methodologies
For all the indicators, the use of the old methodology yielded higher estimates as compared with those generated based on the refined methodology.
Old Methodology Indicators Among families Subsistence Incidence (%) Magnitude of Food Poor (in million) Poverty Incidence (%) Magnitude of Poor (in million) Among individuals Subsistence Incidence (%) Magnitude of Food Poor (in million) Poverty Incidence (%) 13.5 10.8 30.0 14.6 12.2 32.9 13.9 12.2 32.6 28.5 11.1 8.8 24.9 19.8 11.7 9.9 26.4 22.2 10.8 9.4 26.5 23.1 -2.4 -18.5 -5.1 -16.8 -2.9 -18.9 -6.5 -19.6 -3.1 -23.0 -6.1 -18.9 10.2 1.7 24.4 4.0 11.0 1.9 26.9 4.7 10.3 1.9 26.3 4.9 8.2 1.4 20.0 3.3 8.7 1.5 21.1 3.7 7.9 1.5 20.9 3.9 -2.0 -17.6 -4.4 -17.5 -2.3 -21.1 -5.8 -21.3 -2.4 -21.1 -5.4 -20.4 2003 2006 2009 2003 Refined 2006 2009 2003 Difference 2006 2009

Magnitude of Poor 23.8 27.6 PressCon (in million) on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 37
RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Comparison of the Estimates Using the Old and Refined Methodologies

Conclusions: In general, poverty estimates using both the old and refined methodologies showed similar trend/pattern. In terms of levels, estimates based on the old methodology were higher than those of the refined methodology.

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 38 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. Next Steps/Future Activities

Activity Target Date Remarks NSCB sent communication to various agencies on the following dates for bilateral/focused discussions on the refinements in the methodology: February 4 - NEDA, NAPC, DSWD, NWPC February 7 - CPBD, SEPO, DOH, DepEd, DILG, DOLE At the Regional level: Through NSCB Regional Divisions Users Forum to be conducted depending on availability of resources 2. Release of the food and poverty thresholds for: -2010 and 2011 -advance estimates for 2012 Using the methodology provided in NSCB Resolution No. 5, Series of 2007, Approving the Model-Based Estimation Methodology for the Annual Food and Poverty Thresholds

1. Dissemination February Activities of the NSCB on December 2011 the 2009 poverty statistics

March 2011 December 2011

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 39 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. Next Steps/Future Activities

Activity 3. Release of the 2009 poverty statistics for the basic sectors

Target Date Within two months after the provision of the merged FIES and LFS public use files by the NSO

Remarks

4. Generation of 2006 city and municipal level poverty estimates using small area estimation methodology

Will be part of the research agenda of the TC PovStat for 2011. (Dependent on the provision of the 2007 CPH datafile)

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 40 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Thank you!
URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph e-mail: info@nscb.gov.ph

PressCon on the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics Slide No. 41 RAV/ 08 February 2011

NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD