Nations 1980 University, @ tre United Printed Japan in rsBN92-808-0',!

31-7 tssN0379-5764

HSDRGPID-20/UNUP-131

G A B O U TC R I T I C A L R O U P S I Z E

YonaFriedman G P I DC o n s u l t a n t

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CONTENTS

|. I l. I||. IV. V. Vl. Vll.

l n t r o d u c ti o n :

G r o u p sz e a s a K e y V a r i a b l e i

G r o u p s , G r a p h sa n d G r a p h p a r a m e t e r s V a le n c e a n d D e g r a d a t o n i F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g C r i t i c a G r o u p sz e i Socal Consequences Exceeding ritica Groupsize of C Critical Groupsize nd Beyond a Conclusion il

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l9 23 28

This paperby Yona Friedman wasfirst presented the GPID ll meeting, g-14 January,197g. at Geneva, It can be considered contributionto the Visions Desirable a of Worldsuno tn. Methods Anaiysis of sub-projects the GPID Project. of Geneva, January1980 JohanGaltung

It is beingcirculated a pre-publication in form to elicit comments from readers generate and dialogue on the subject this stage the research. at of

ON I N T R O D UIC T :

I IS G R O U PZ E A S A K E Y V A RA B L E

It

i s e v i d e n t f o r a n y b o d yr e a d y t o t h i n k a b o u t w h a t h e o b s e r v e s , t h a t

n o t h i n g i n t h e w o r d c a n g r o w w i t h o u t l i m i t s : t h i n g s g r o w i n gs t o p d o i n g s o w h e n r e a c h i n g s o m ed e t e r m i n e d s i z e . that most peope (and most scientists) T h i s f a c t s e e m ss o e v i d e n t accept it without further

thought, and without posing the questions: at which size, why and by rvhatoperation does an entity stop its growth? W ew i l c a l l " c r i t i c a l s i z e " t h e I i m i t i n g s i z e w h e r eg r o w t h s t o p s a n d

b e y o n dw h i c h , i f a n e n t i t y c o n t i n u e s t o g r o w , t h e g r o w i n g e n t i t y " C r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z e "w i l I t h u s s u f f e r s i m p o r t a n tq u a li t a t i v e c h a n g e s . b e t h e s i z e o f a s o c i a l g r o u p c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y c e r t a i n q u a i t i e s ' o v e r Critical groupw h i c h s i z e t h i s g r o u p c a n n o t k e e p t h e s e q u a i t i e s . size is effectively critical an organization. g r o u p s i z e m i g h t b e t h e n u m b e ro n e p r o b l e m f o r h u m a ns o c i a l s l f h u m a n o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e c o n s i d e r e da s o n e o f t h e m o s t is evident to the goodfunctioning of a groupor of

Critica life.

i m p o r t a n t ' r t o o st o a s s u r e s u r v i v a l r r f o r t h e s p e c i e s , i t

t h a t , i f t h i s t o o c h a n g e s i t s q u a l i t y s i m p l y b y g r o w i n g b e y o n da a characteristic I imiting size, it might lose its efficaciousness, nd, t i n s t e a do f a s s u r i n g s u r v i v a l o f t h e s p e c i e s , i t m i g h t b e c o m e h e t o o of its destruction. \^/e ight today be facing this situation. m i f w e d o n ' t g a i n k n o w l e d g ea b o u t

H o wt o b e m a s t e r s o f o u r o w n s u r v i v a l , critical

g r o u p s i z e , a n d t h i s i n a s t a g e w h e no u r i n s t i n c t i v e k n o w l e d g e

aboutthese limits is (at least, for a while) practicaly lost? We s p e a k a b o u t " l i m i t s t o g r o w t h " i n m a n yd o m a i n s ' e x c e p t t h a t o f o u r o w n organizations; perhapsthe inverse would be better' and we should o t h i n k m o r ea b o u t " l i m i t s t o g r o w t h o f h u m a n r g a n i z a t i o n s r r i n o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n da n d t o a v o i d o t h e r p r o b e m so f g r o w t h .

I I.

G R O U P S , R A P HA N D G R A P H A R A M E T E R S G S P

In order to consider criticar ficial

g r o u p s i z eo t h e r w i s e t h a n i n a s u p e r -

m a n n e r , i t c o u d b e u s e f u l t o s t a r t w i t h s t a t i n _ ai t a s a principle expressingits relation to other factors characterizing organizations. In order to be able to achievethis, we have to ook for an appropriate terminoogy. I w i l I c a l l " g r o u p ' ra s e t o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n w h i c h t h e r e exists some sort of 'rrelationrrbetween ny two individuals belonging a to the set. A person who has no such "relation" to at least one other who in his t u r n i s r e a t e d t o t h e o t h e r s , c a n b e c o n s i d e r e da p e r s o n , , c u t of qrouD.r, L e t u s s u p p o s et h a t I w o u l d l i k e t o s k e t c h t h e i m a g eo f a group. f i r s t d r a w a l l p e r s o n sb e l o n g i n gt o t , t h e n c o n t i n u e b y d r a w i n g

I wil

lnes l i n k i n g a n y t w o p e r s o n s b e t w e e nw h o m I o b s e r v e a n e x i s t i n g r e l a t i o n . I will thus representthis group by means f a figure in which o any one p e r s o nw i l I b e I i n k e d t o a n y o t h e r b y a t l e a s t o n e " p a t h " passing from one to the other by the intermediaryof other persons. I r e p l a c e t h e " m a n n i k i n s "o f t h i s m a p o f t h e g r o u p b y p o i n t s , the result will be a figure consistingof points and lines, in which tnere i s a t e a s t o n e p a t h b e t w e e n n y p a i r o f p o i n t s c h o s e na r b i t r a r i l v a ( c o n n e c t e dg r a p h ) . lf

t-f---, )*

O b v i o u s l y t h i s g r a p h g i v e s a n o v e r s i m p i f i e d i m a g eo f a g r o u p . this figure wiI I require further explanation.

Using

I wil

t t h u s r e e x a m i n e h e c o n c e p to f " r e l a t i o n s , " w h i c h I r e p r e s e n t e d First I will try to find out whodrew it.

by lines in the figure.

0 t h e r w i s e s t a t e d , o n e h a s t o k n o ww h o t h e o b s e r v e r o f t h i s g r o u p i s .

t I s h o u d p o i n t o u t i m m e d i a t e y h a t d i f f e r e n t o b s e r v e r sw i I I s e e f d i f f e r e n t " m a p s ' r o r t h e s a m eg r o u p . I n m o s t c a s e s i t w i l l b e d i f f i c u t t o f i n d t w o o b s e r v e r s w h o w o u l d a t t r i b u t e t h e s a m e i m p o r t a n c et o t h e s a m e r e a t i o n ; t h u s t h e I ' i m p o r t a n c e "o f r e l a t i o n s c a n n o t b e o b s e r v e d without error, and therefore I will terminology. n o t i n t r o d u c e r r i m p o r t a n c e i"n t o m y

0 n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e m e r e e x i s t e n c e o f a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n b e t w e e nt w o i n d i v i d u a l s b e l o n g i n g t o a g r o u p c a n b e o b s e r v e d . T h i s m e a n st h a t t h e e x i s t e n c e o r t h e n o n e x i s t e n c eo f a " l i n e " i n a g r a p h r e p r e s e n t i n g a g r o u p c a n b e a g r e e d o n b y a l a r E e n u m b e ro f p o t e n t i a l o b s e r v e r s . will thus be content to note the existenceof a relation. I

A n o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f s u c h r e l a t i o n s c e n b e o b s e r v e da n d n o t e d : their I'direction." Let meexpain the term. In observing two persons who "communicate"(and thus a reation

tretween

i t h e n r )w e c a n g e n e r a l l y s t a t e t h a t o n c e t h e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s f i n i s h e d , o n e o r t h e o t h e r ( o r b o t h ) o f t h e t w o p e r s o n s c h a n g e sh i s p r e v i o u s behaviour. Wewill say, in such a case, that one of the two persons (or both of them) received an "influence" from the other one. This

infuence has a direction, which points from the personwho exerts the influence to the other one who receives it.

I will

d e f i n e ' r i n f u e n c e " a s a r e l a t i o n b e t w e e nt w o i n d i v i d u a l s w h i c h

has an observable d i rect ion.

In conclusion,a society will

t h u s b e r e p r e s e n t e db y a d r e c t e d

c o n n e c t e dg r a p h , t h a t i s , b y a f i g u r e c o n s i s t i n g o f p o i n t s a n d I i n e s , in which there is no point not linked by at least one path to any other p o i n t ( w h e na r r o w d i r e c t i o n s a r e n o t c o n s i d e r e d )a n d i n w h i c h e v e r y I i n e c a r r i e s a n a r r o w r e p r e s e n t i n gt h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e i n f l u e n c e i n this particular I ink.

T h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i o no f a s o c i e t y m a k e s i t p o s s i b l e t o d e s c r i b e i t s s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s b y u s i n g m a p sc o n s t r u c t e dw i t h g r a p h s a s e x p l a i n e da b o v e . s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d o n o t r e f e r t o a n y measurableize, as I had to exclude,first of all, the possibiity of s k n o w i n g i m p o r t a n c e ,i n t e n s i t i e s , a n d s o o n , o f i n f l u e n c e s i n g e n e r a l . I have thus I imited myself to consideringcertain topological p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e s e g r a p h s , i n o r d e r t o c h a r a c t e ri z e s o c i a o r g a ni z ation. T h e s e t o p o l o g i c a l p r o p e r t i e s i n d i c a t e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i m p li e d by the inkageschemes, he paths, and the circuits within such maps t of a group; they correspcndto those of the influences within a set of individuals.

T o g e t t o t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f s u c h i m p o r t a n tc h a r a c t e r i s t i c s I s h a l l i n v o k e a n i m a g e : t h e i m a g eo f t h e " s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " o f a p a r t i c u l a r p e r s o nw i t h i n a g r o u p . T h i s s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n w i l l b e d e f i n e d b y influences this particular person receives from and gxerts upon the other members f the group. o For example, if he exerts an influence u p o n f o u r o f h i s n e i g h b o u r sa n d h e d o e s n o t r e c e i v e a n y i n f l u e n c e f r o m a n y b o d y , h e c o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d a s h a v i n g m o r e " p o w e r ' ,t h a n a n o t h e r personwho also exerts four influences but receives two influences from others.

T h u s t h e s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n o f a p a r t c u l a r p e r s o nw i l

b e e x p r e s s e db y

t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e nt h e s u m o f i n f l u e n c e s s t a r t i n q w i t h h i m a n d t h e s u mo f i n f l u e n c e s h a v i n g h i m a s t h e i r e n d p o i n t .

I n p r a c t i c e , t h e s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n o f a p a r t i c u l a r p e r s o nc o r r e s p o n d s t o h i s " b a a n c e o f i n f l u e n c e s . " B u t - a n d t h i s i s i m p o r t a n t- w e c a l c u l a t e t h i s b a l a n c ew i t h o u t a s s o c i a t i n g a n y d i f f e r e n c e i n s i z e w i t h d i f f e r e n t i n f l u e n c e s . a s v r eh a v e a q r e e d t h a t I ' s i z e " o f i n f l u e n c e i s n o t observabe. l

T h i s c o n v e n t i o n d o e s n o t m e a n ,o b v i o u s y , t h a t t h e t w o p e r s o n s l i n k e d by this influence do not attribute to it any value, atrYimportance whatever.

VJe an be sure that they do, and even that very probably this c wil be different for each of the two: the one who exerts the

importance

influence might consider it as important,and the other, who receives it, m i g h t i g n o r e i t ; o r i n v e r s e l y , o n e m i g h t i g n o r e t h e i n f l u e n c eh e

exerts on others and the ones who receive it might appreciate its imoortance.

To avoid such ambiguity I had to take as a standard the observation of someone xterior to the society observed. But if this observer cone s i d e r s a l d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e s a s e q u a l , h e m i g h t o b s e r v ea d e g r a d a t i o n of rrindirect" infuences (influences transmitted by several intermediary o p e r s o n s ) , d e g r a d a t i o nt h r o u g h e r r o r s , o m i s s i o n s , b e c a u s e f s u c c e s s i v e t r a n s m i s s i o n s ( d e g r a d a t i o nr e s u l t i n g f r o m w h a t i n f o r m a t i o n t h e o r y c a l l s "noise").

W ew i l l

u s e , i n o r d e r t o d e s c r i b e t h i s d e g r a d a t i o no f a n i n d i r e c t

o i n f l u e n c e b e c a u s e f t h e n e c e s s a r yt r a n s m i s s i o n s ,a s i m p l e r u l e : w e w i l l s u p p o s et h a t t h e " i n t e n s i t y " o f a n i n f l u e n c e w i l l d e c a y i n i n v e r s e p r o p o r t i o n t o t h e n u m b e ro f i n t e r m e d i a r y t r a n s m i s s i o n s n e c e s s a r y t o its forwardinq. \y'e re now ready to define the social situation of any personwithin a a group by an observer exterior to this group. b y t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e nt h e s u m o f a l l lt will be expressed influences (direct and in-

d i r e c t ) e x e r t e d b y t h i s p a r t i c u a r p e r s o n u p o n a l l o t h e r p e r s o n sw i t h i n t h e g r o u p , a n d t h e s u mo f a l l influencesstarting from all other persons

in the group and received by him.

In order to do this simplecalcuiation it

is sufficient to construcr

0n the b a s i s o f t h i s g r a p h ( c r o f t h i s m a t r i x ) w e c a n f i n d b o t h s u m sn e c e s s a r v t o d e f i n e t h e p a r a m e t e ro f s o c i a l s t u a t i o n ,
lrq Fa h''tro ltt tnv
lgt?

t h e r r p a t h m a t r i x " o f t h e g r a p h m a p p i n gt h e g r o u p i n q u e s t i o n .

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u s i n g t h i s m e t h o d ,w e c a n o b t a i n n o t o n l y t h e s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n o f a n y person within the group of our example(here containing seven persons) t h a t w e o b t a i n e d , b u t a l s o t h e r e a l I ' h i e r a r c h y " e s t a b i s h e d ( f r e q u e n t l y i n a t a c i t w a y ) w i t h i n t h e g r o u p . 0 b v i o u s y , t h e h i e r a r c h yw e f i n d i n t h e f i g u r e i s o n l y t h e o n e o b s e r v a b l eb y s o m e b o d e x t e r i o r t o t h i s y group. lt i s q u i t e p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e h e r a r c h y a s o b s e r v e db y M r . A or by Mr. B differs sensiblyfrom ths'robjective" herarchy.

L e t u s s u p p o s e ,n o w , t h a t o n e m e m b eo f t h i s g r o u p d e c i d e s t o l e a v e i t r f o r s o n r er e a s o n o f h i s o w n . will l m m e d i a t e l yt h e e s t a b l i s h e d h i e r a r c n y Certain persons b e t r a n s f o r m e da s a c o n s e q u e n co f h i s l e a v i n g i t . e

r e m a i n i n g i t h i n t h e g r o u pw i l l w i f w e s u p p o s e-

benefit from his defection (their be prejudiced. Thus,

social situation wil be improved)others will ;

in order to keep the exanple simpe - that all members of the group want to get a "higher" place in the hierarchy, those who b e n e f i t b y t h e d e f e c t i o n o f M r . X c a n b e c o n s i d e r e dh i s ' r a d v e r s a r i e s , "

who are interested in rennving him from the group.

0n the contrary, to keep

those who are prejudiced by the departure of Mr. X wi I I try him: they are his "all ies."

U s i n g t h i s s i m p l e f u n c t i o n , w h i c h I c a l l " d e p e n d e n c e "f a p a r t i c u l a r o person in a group upon the departure of Mr. X, we can construct a " t a b l e o f a l l i a n c e s ' rc h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h i s q r o u p . " D e p e n d e n c ec"a n b e c a l c u l a t e d i n a s i m p l e w a y : b y o b t a i n i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e nt h e s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n s o f a p e r s o n b e l o n g i n g t o t h e g r o u p b e f o r e a n d a f t e r t h e d e p a r t u r eo f M r . X . The first social

s i t u a t i o n c a n b e c a l c u l a t e d o n t h e g r a p h w h i c h m a p st h e g r o u p a s a w h o l e ( l t r . X i n c l u d e d ) ; t h e s e c o n ds o c i a l s i t u a t i o n w i l be obtained

b y c a l c u l a t i n g o n a s u b g r a p h f t h e s a m eg r a p h , s u b g r a p h h i c h d o e s o w n o t c o n t ai n M r . X .

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W e o b t a i n e d t h u s , b y a m e t h o ds u f f i c i e n t l y s i m p e t o b e u s e d b y a t e n year-old child, a fairly gooddescription of the real structure of a

g r o u p . T h i s m e t h o dc a n b e u s e d f o r a n y i m a g i n a b l e s o c i e t y .

After all

these prel iminary explanationsI would try to define, for the

s a k e o f e x a m p l eo n l y , t w o c o n c e p t s o f g r o u p s t r u c t u r e , c o n c e p t s w h i c h I c o n s i d e r i m p o r t a n t : " e g a li t a r i a n " g r o u p sa n d " h i e r a r c h i c " o n e s . I calI a group "egalitarian" if al situation.

s i t s m e m b e r h a v e t h e s a m es o c i a l

P u t o t h e r w i s e , i n a n e g a i t a r i a n g r o u p t h e d i f f e r e n c e of nfiuences exerted and the totality of infu-

b e t w e e nt h e t o t a l i t y ences received will

be the samefor everybody. Such a group does not

contain any "upper cassil influencina the others.

A n e g a li t a r i a n g r o u p i s t h u s a p o s s i b l e o n e .

Thereare a large number

o f g r a p h sw h i c h s a t i s f y t h i s c o n d i t i o n ( e v e n t h o u g hc e r t a i n c o n s t r a i n t s r e s t r i c t t h i s n u m b e r ,c o n s t r a i n t s w e w i I i n v e s t i g a t e l a t e r o n ) . A n o t h e r t y p e o f g r o u p h a v i n g g r e a t l m p o r t a n c eb e c a u s e i t i s a v e r y commonne, is "hierarchicr': this type of group can De representedby o "tree" (a graph in which a b e t w e e na n y p a i r o f p o i n t s t h e r e i s b u r o n e p a t h ) . T h i s g r o u p i s c h a r a c t e r i z e db y a " c l e g r e s s i v e " i e r a r c h y o f h s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n , s t a r t i n g f r o m t h e i l a p e x , '( i . e . t h e p e r s o n r e p r e s e n t e , J b y t h e a p e x i s t h e r n o s tp o w e r f u , t h e p e r s o n sj u s t b e l o w h i m a r e s o m e w h a lte s s p o w e r f u l , a n d s o o n ) . lts other characteristic is a "progressive"hierarchy o f a l i a n c e s , p r o g r e s s i o ns t a r t i n g f r o m t h e s a m ea p e x ; t h u s d e p e n d e n c e o r c h a n g e i n s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n c a u s e c ib y , t h e d e p a r t u r e o f s o m e b o d yr o m t h e g r o u p , w i l l b e e s s n o t i c e a b i e f o r f ' p e r s o n sa t t h e I ' b o t t o m ' o f t h e g r o u p t h a n a t i t s " t o p . ' ,
A 6F.\rP trrlTh r f,4,0,4a2r91 " sTrr.(ru 4p

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p e r h a p ss l o w l y , b u t s u r e l y . m e m b e ro f t h e g r o u p , a n d i t w i l s

i/r\.\ J\1\

w e s a w b e f o r e t h a t t h i s m e t h o do f r e p r e s e n t i n g a s o c i e t y i s b a s e d o n The two rypes o f g r o u p s s k e t c h e d a b o v e a r e p r a c t i c a l y t w o s c h e m e so f e x c h a n g e d i a m e t r i c a il y o p p o s e d . I n e g a i i t a r i a n g r o u p s , e x c h a n g e a n s t a r t w i t h c a n y m e m b eo f t h e g r o u p a n d w i l l c e r t a i n l y r e a c h a l l o t h e r m e m b e r s , r 0n the other hand, in hierarchic groups, reach al As for is very low t h e r e i s b u t o n e p e r s o nw h o c a n s t a r t a n i n f l u e n c e w h i c h w i l l do so relatively quickly. reach everyone,it t h e p r o b a b i li t y t h a t t h i s i n f l u e n c e w i l l the exchange f influencewithin a set of indivduals. o

(becausethe noncooperationof ony one person somewheren the group i r e p r e s e n t s a b l o c k a g e f o r a c e r t a i n n u m b e ro f p a t h s ) .

Obviously enough,these two types of society are not the only ones p o s s i b l e : I p i c k e d t h e m b e c a u s et h e y a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t . A s a matter of fact, all s o c i a u t o p i a s h a v e a s a g o a l a n e g a li t a r i a n

s o c i e t y , a n d a l t e c h n i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e b a s e do n h i e r a r c h i c society. E v i d e n t l y , n e i t h e r i s a p e r f e c t n r o d e,l b u t t h e r e a r e m a n y

o r g a ni z a t i o n s t e n d i n g t o w a r d t h e o n e o r t h e o t h e r o f t h e s e n r r c d e l s .

To finish this section on terminology, I woulC ike to correct a o s i m p l i f i c a t i o n I h a d t o m a k e ( a m o n g t h e r s ) w h e n I b e g a nt h i s p a p e r . d e f i n e d g r o u p s a s s e t s o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n w h i c h t h e r e e x i s t s s o m es o r t a of relation (influence) between ny two individuals. In reality' we I

a r e r e l a t e d n o t o n l y t o m e n b y a s y s t e mo f i n f l u e n c e s , b u t a l s o t o o bi e c t s .

I will

t h u s b e o b l i g e d t o i n t r o d u c e a n e w d e f i n i t i o n f o r g r o u p sa s b e i n g Thus a

a s e t o f p e r s o n s a n d o b j e c t s I i n k e d b y a s y s t e mo f i n f l u e n c e s .

c g r o u p c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d a s a m i x e d m e c h a n i s m o n t a i n i n g b o t h m e na n d obj ect s .

In order to be more precise, I have to state what I consider the criterion o f d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e nh u m a nb e i n g s a n d o b j e c t s ' f r o m t h e This difference results from the fact i n a g r o u P , a S o p p o s e dt o

point of view of this study.

t h a t m e na r e c o n s c i o u s o f t h e i r s i t u a t i o n objects which do not care.

T h i s d e f i n i t i o n m a k e s i t p o s s i b t e f o r u s t o i m a g i n eo t h e r s o c i a l a l t e r n a t i v e s , w h i c h c o u l d b e r e a i z e d m o r ee a s i y t h a n m o s t s o c i a l utopias (even if will t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e s u b m i t t e dt o t h e c o n s t r a i n t s I Onesuch alternative would be a society

talk about later).

b e g a li t a r i a n f o r h u m a n e i n g s b u t h i e r a r c h i c f o r t h e o b j e c t s b e l o n g i n g to it. important result we get by applying our new terminology (that be the

The first

o f t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f g r o u p s a n d t h e i r m a p p i n gb y g r a p h s ) w i l l e q u i v a l e n c eo f " s o c i e t y " a n d " e n v i r o n m e n t . "

T h i s e q u i v a l e n c e i s e x p r e s s e di n t h e d e f i n i t i o n ' s e t objects."

o f p e r s o n sa n d l n d e e d , t h e d e f i n i t i o n g e n e r a l l y u s e d f o r e n v i r o n m e n t ," t h e

set of objects influencedby and influencing men,,'is inadequate. \,/hy n o t r r o b j e c t s a n d p e r s o n s r ' ?A s f o r t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f s o c i e t y , i t w a s s u f f i c i e n t l y d i s c u s s e da b o v e . "society" and "environmentrrare t h u s t h e s a m et h i n g . M y o w n t e r m f o r r r o t h e r s r ' T hi s t e r m i s . it i s r e aI l y t h e m o s t a c c u r a t e , b e c a u s e i t Thus, if Mr. X is talking about s o c i e t y o r a b o u t h i s e n v i r o n m e n ta n d h e u s e s t h e t e r m i ' t h e o t h e r s , h e i n c l u d e s M r . Y , h i s h o u s e ,a n d s o o n , b u t w i l l n o t i n c u d eh i m s e l f . include Mr. x, 0 n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i f M r . Y u s e s t h e s a m et e r m , h e w i l l hirnsel . f r e f e r s t o t h e p e r s o nw h o u s e s i t .

a tree, and so on, and the whole systemhe s I inked to, except

The'rothers" are others for every one of us.

l0

I I I.

ON V A L E N CA N D D E G R A D A T I E

A f t e r t h i s l o n g s e c t i o n a b o u t t e r m i n o l o g yw e a r e s t i l l c o n c l u s i o no f t h i s s t u d y . ! , / eh a v e s t i l

far from the

t o m a k ec l e a r c e r t a i n b a s i c ones behindus.

c o n c e p t sb u t , h a p p i l y , w e h a v e t h e m o s t d i f f i c u l t

The first

"valence": it conceptto be investigated is the one I call

s i g n i f i e s a p r o p e r t y , o b s e r v a b l ea n d b i o l o g i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d , b e l o n g i n g a to the human nimal. T h i s p r o p e r t y d e f i n e s h o w m a n yc e n t r e s o f interest can simultaneouslyoccupy the attention of man. For example, I c a n r e a d t w o b o o k s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y ( e v e n i f w i t h s o m ed i f f i c u l t y ) , p e r h a p s e v e n t h r e e ; b u t s u r e l y I c o u l d n e v e r u n d e r s t a n dt e n d i f f e r e n t b o o k s a t t h e s a m et i m e . ln this case my valence will be perhapsthree,

p e r h a p s r n o r e , b u t b y n o m e a n sa s m u c h a s t e n . " V a e n c e " w i I I t h u s I i m it t h e n u m b e ro f p e r s o n s w h o c a n i n f l u e n c e ( o r o who can be influenced Uy) one member f a group during a given period V a e n c ew i l b e v i s u a l i z e d i n t h e m a p o f a g r o u p ( o r " d e g r e e " o f a g i v e n p o i n t c o r r e s p o n d i n gt o a of an environment)by the p e r s o n ( w e c a I I " d e g r e e " t h e n u m b e ro f I i n k s i n c i d e n t t o a g i v e n p o i n t ) of reference. The secondkey concept, that is, the degradation of an influence by s u c c e S isv e t r a n s m is s i o n s , w a s m e n ti o n e d e a r l i e r , w h e n I d i s c u s s e d t h e wayto calcuate real hierarchy (social situation) within a group. o D e g r a d a t i o n f i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h s u c c e s s i v et r a n s m i s s i o n sa l s o i m p li e s a n o b s e r v a b l e a n d b i o l o g i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d p r o p e r t y o f t h e h u m a na n i m a l : i n d e e d , t h i s d e g r a d a t i o n d e p e n d so n o u r m e n t a l c a p a c i t y . I c a l I t h e "channel capacity" of a particular person (or of a species) the capacity w f o r t r a n s m i t t i n g a m e s s a g e i t h a n u m b e ro f e r r o r s , w h e r e t h i s n u m b e r

lt

is characteristic for this person(or for this species). It is e v i d e n t t h a t t h e " c h a n n e l c a p a c i t y , ' i s d e p e n d e n tu p o n t h e p e r i o d o f reference, as was also the casewith valence.

Evidently,

both valence and channel capacity are dependentupon the indeed, a densely coded message, for examp.|e,can be

anguage also;

dealt r.rith faster when less errors are committed in transmission: rhrrc during the sarnereference period one can deal with (nigher vaI ency) or more messages

t r a n s m i t m o r e m e s s a g e s ( r ri g r r e r c h a n n e l c a p a c i t y ) .

Channecapacity is a very limiting prcperty for a social organization: l i t i m p li e s t h a t a n i n d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e s u b m i t t e d r o m o r e c o n s e c u t i v e i n t e r m e d i a r y t r a n s m i s s i o n st h a n a d m i t t e d b y t h e c h a n n e c a p a c i t v w i I I d e c a y c o r n p l e t e l y :s u c h a n i n f l u e n c e w i l I b e i n d i s t i n q u i s h a b l e b e v o n d a g i v e n n u m b e ro f t r a n s m i s s i o n s .

"Va l ence" and "channel natural

capaci ty"

of the human nimal represent two a

t h r e s h o d s w h i c h c a n n o t b e c r o s s e dw i t h o u t g r e a t d i f f i c u l t y .

T h e s e t w o t h r e s h o l d s a f f e c t t h e r h y t h m o f e x c h a n g eo f

nfluences among

human eings (ancobjects), and thus within social organiza:ions (or. b e n v i r o n m e n t s )w h i c h i n t h e e n d a r e d e p e n d e n to n t h e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e o f t h e s e t h r e s h o ld s .

T h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f p r a c t i c a a p p li c a t i o n o f t h e s e t w o t h r e s h o d s f o r s o c i e t i e s o r e n v i r o n m e n t sc o m e sf r o m t h e f a c t t h a t t h e s e t w o t h r e s h o l < J s d e t e r m i n et h e n u m e r i c a l s i z e o f s u c h o r g a n i z a t i o n s , i . e . t h e q u a n t i t y o f " e l e m e n t s t ' ( m e nJ n d o b j e c t s ) t h a t c a r r b e o n g t o a s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n w i t h o u t h a v i n ga d i s t u r b i n g e f f ' e c t o n i t s f u n c t i o n i n g . l m p l i c i t l y , t h e s a m et h r e s h o l d s d e t e r m i n e t h e n u m b e ro f I i n k s w i t h i n a n o r g a n i z a t i o n . T h u s , f o r e x a m p l e , i t v r o u db e i m p o s s i b l et o r e a l i z e a n " e g a l i t a r i a n , ' organization containing morehumansobjects and links than the , r e s p e c t i v e t h r e s h o l d s a d m i t , a n d i t w o u l d b e j u s t a s i m p o s s i b l et o c o n c e i v e a " h i e r a r c h i c " g r o u p i n w h i c h t h e n u m b e ro f m e m b e r s n d t h e a n u m b e ro f I i n k s b e t w e e nm e m b e r s o u l d b e l a r g e r t h a n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g w t h r e s h o l d n u m b e r s . E x p r e s s e ds i m p l y , a g r o u p o r a n e n v i r o n m e n t h a v i n g a d e t e r m i n e ds t r u c t u r e ( i n t h e s e n s e u s e d i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n ) t2

i c a n n o t c o n t a i n n r o r e e l e m e n t s a n d I i n k s t h a n a d m t t e d b y t h e t h r e s h o ld v a l u e s w h i c h c a n b e e s t a b l i s h e d o n t h e b a s i s o F t h e r e s D e c t i v ev a l e n c e a n d c h a n n e c a p a ci t y . W ec a I " c r i t i c a l g r o u p s " t h e l a r g e s t s e t o f e l e m e n t s ( h u m a n s ,o b j e c t s

a n d I i n k s a n o n gt h e m ) f o r w hi c h t h e f u n c t i o n i n g o f a g r o u p , c h a r a c t e r ized by a determinedstructure, st i I I can

DC

assured.

ItsArlfLgl

li<#4 "t=?''
T h e c o n c e p to f t h e " c r i t i c a s e e m i n gt o b e v e r y t h e o r e t i c a l , projects fail

( l,r'-\a

/llYI

VALENCE; U.:4 C|lrpr<a+K)f-li Cr> STQ,tnJeA I !<Auf^a^X tx -f1{ts laE -rhs cnJfrcrJ- q-QO0f <o$r^N5, 42 tFq.Solt

g r o u p ' ri s p e r h a p s , i n s p i t e o f i t s the most pragmaticconcept for a

p e r i o d o f c r i s i s , b e c a u s et h e c o m p a r i s o n f a n y o r g a n i z a t i o n w i t h t h e o " c r i t i c a l g r o u p " c o r r e s p o n d i n gt o i t s c a t e g o r y o f s t r u c t u r e s h o w s w immediately hetherthis organization is realizabe or not. Most

l e s s b e c a u s e f t h e i m p o s s i b i li t y o f r e a l i z i n g t h e i r o

i d e a r s c o n t e n t t h a n b e c a u s et h e i r i m p le m e n t a it o n i s b a s e d o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s w h i c h e x c e e dc r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z e a s s o c i a t e dw t h t h e s e

o r g a n i z a t i o n s r s t r u c t u r e , S o m e t i m e ist m i g h t b e e v e n t h e i n i t i a l s u c c e s so f a n o r g a n i z a t i o n t h a t i s t h e t o o l o f i t s s e l f - d e s t r u c t i o n , f o r t h i s s u c c e s s p r o m o t e st h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ' s e x p a n s i o n a n d w h e n "explodes." e x p a n s i o np a s s e s t h e c r i t i c a g r o u p s i z e , t h e o r g a n z a t i o n " C r i t i c a g r o u p " i s a r e s u l t o f t w o e s s e n t i a l y b i o l o g i c a f a c t o r s (vaienceand channe capacity) and of one topological factor (tfte structure of the organization). t l t s s i z e i s t h u s i n d e p e n d e no f a n y

i d e o l o g y , t e c h n i q u e , o r k n o w l e d g e ;o t h e r w i s e e x p r e s s e d , o f a n y I'artificiaIrfactor inventedby man. The three decisive factors depend thus on a "law of nature," and the rue of the critical itsef a "law of nature." groupsizeis

t3

Twoof these factors (valence and channel capacity) are of a bioogical nature: thus they differ with every species. The thi rd factor is invariant in the sensethat it i s t h e s a m ef o r a n y s p e c i e s .

Thus,critical

g r o u p s i z ev a r i e s w i t h e v e r y s p e c i e s : i t

is differenc

f o r m e n , f o r m o n k e y s ,l i o n s , h e r r i n g s , o r b e e s . B u t f o r a n y s p e c i e s , it can be klown, and the numericalsize of the critical c o n si d e r e d a s a s p e ci S : s c h ar y r c t e ri s t i c . l f w e c o n s i d e r , f o r e x a m p l e ,a n a n i m a l s p e ci e s , l e t u s s a y e e p l r a n t s , we will f i n d t h a t a h e r d o f e l e p h a n t sv a r i e s l v i t h t h e n u r n b e r f o b u t t h a t t h i s h e r d n e v e r e x c e e d sa g i v e n g r o u p s i z eo f e l e p h a n t s . i n d i v i d u a l s b e l o n g i n gt o i t , n u m b e r :t h a t o f t h e c r i t i c a l group could be

A l i e n a t i o n o f m a nc o u l d t h u s b e a c o n s e q u e n c e f e n o r r n o u s l y x c e e d i n q o e h u m a nc r i t i c a l g r o u p si z e s : v r e I i v e w i t l r m o r e p e o p e t h a n w e c a n this witht o l e r a t e , a n d w i t h m o r eo b j e c t s t h a n v / ec a n r e l y o n , a n d a l l out becoming iologically a different species. b

t4

IV.

F A C T O R S F E C T I NC R I T I C A L R O U P S I Z E AF G G

The next step we have to take is to be somewhat ore specific m

about

c r i t i c a I g r o u p si z e s : w h a t a r e t h e d a t a n e c e s s a r y t o f i n d o u t t h e critical s i z e o f a g r o u po f a g i v e n s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c , a n d h o w

s h o u l d o n e p r o c e e d i n o r d e r t o g e t t h e a p p r o p r i a t e n u m e r i c r e s u lt s ?

\ y ' h e n m e n t i o n e dv a l e n c e a n d c h a n n e l c a p a c i t y a b o v e , I t r i e d t o I a c c e n t u a t e t h a t b o t h f a c t o r s d e p e n ds t r i c t l y reference. lt upon the period of

i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e n u m b e ro f i n f l u e n c e s r e f e r r e d t o b y the reference

both valence and channel capacity is a different one if p e r i o d m e a n st e n m i n u t e s , o r i f

i t m e a n st e n d a y s , o r e v e n t e n y e a r s .

T h u s t h e e m p i r i c a i l y d e f i n e d n u m e r i c v a l u e o f v a l e n c e d e p e n d su p o n t h e reference period. But not only that: i t d e p e n d sa l s o o n t h e c o d e lt is evident ( l a n g u a g e )u s e d f o r t h e t r a n s m i s s i o no f t h e n f l u e n c e .

that an influence which can be transrnitted by using one unique word a l o n e , c a n a d m i t a m u c hh i g h e r v a l e n c e , a n d a m u c h l a r g e r c h a n n e l c a p a c i t y , t h a n w o u l d b e o b s e r v e dw h e n u s i n g a t e n - w o r d p h r a s e f o r t h e t r a n s m i s s i o n ,t h e r e f e r e n c e d u r a t i o n b e i n g t h e s a m ei n b o t h c a s e s . M i l i t a r y o r c o m m e r c i a o r g a n i z a t i o n s m a k ea n a m p l e u s e o f t h i s s i m p l e l truth.

I n c o n s e q u e n c et h e p r a g m a t i c s t a t e m e n t a b o u t c r i t i c a l , s o u n ds o m e t h i n gl i k e t h i s :

groupsize rr.rould

Critical

g r o u p s i z e d e p e n d su p o n t h e s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e o f q g r o u p ( w h i c h s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e c a n b e d e d u c e df r o n r t h e g r o u p ' s r r m a t h e m a t i c a l s t r u c t u r e , r ' i . e . f r o m t h e g r a p h r e p r e s e n t i n gt h e i n f l u e n c e s w i t h i n t h e g r o u p ) ; i t d e p e n d sa l s o o n t l r e t w o f a c t o r s o f a b i o o g i c a l n a t u r e ,

t5

which are valence and channecapacity, and which can both be observed e m p i r i c a l l y , r e l a t e d t o a g i v e n r e f e r e n c ed u r a t i o n a n d t o a q i v e n c o d e . T h i s s t a t e m e n t c a n b e exp res sed by a fo rmuI a : = R[s(r) u(tl), c(tt)] ,

T h e a b b r e v i a t i o n s i n t h e f o r m u l a h a v e t h e f o l o w i n q m e a nn q s : i G: s: m: v: t: l: c: critical groupsize social structure (rea hierarchy) m a t h e m a t i c a ls t r u c t u r e ( t o p o l o g i c a s t r u c t u r e o f g r a p h ) v aI e n c e period of reference language r code o c h a n n e l c a p a ci t y

R being a hypothetical relation to be investigated. There is no a c t u a l l y k n o w na l g o r h y t h m w h i c h c o u l d c o r r e s p o n d t o t h i s f o r m u l a , b u t the critical operations: a. v(tt) and c(tl) c a n b e e m p i r i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d( i t is possibleto g r o u p s i z ec a n b e c a l a c u l a t e d b y p e r f o r m i n gt h e f o l l o w i n g

d r e s s t a b l e s i n di c a t i n g t h e s e f a c t o r s c o r r e s p o n d n g t o t a n d I a s i v a r i a b le s ) ; b. m can be drawnby observation (for existing groups)or by pranning (for projected groups)as a graph indicating the group's strucrure; G c a n b e d e t e r m i n e d b y r e d r a w i n g t h e g r a p h i n s u c h a m a n n e rt h a t n o s u m m i to f t h e g r a p h s h o u l d h a v e a l o c a l d e g r e e g r e a t e r t h a n v , a n d t h a t n o p a t h b e t w e e na n y t w o s u m m i t s i n t h e g r a p h s h o u l d b e lonqer than c.

c.

B e f o r e c o n c u di n g t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a b o u t h o w t o f i n d t h e c r i t i c a l s i z e f o r a g i v e n g r o u p , let us see how to choose the "oeriod o f r e f e r e nc e . ' '

It is evident that criti cal groupsize can be as large as wanted, if the reference period can be a s l a r g e a s w a n t e d . Both valence and channe capacity are enornous, i f, s e v e r a l h u n d r e dy e a r s . for example,the reference period chosen is

t6

But

the functioning of a group's structure (we saw it earl ier) is lt

t n e v e r i n d e p e n d e n o f t h e g r o u p ' s e n v i r o n m e n t ,a n d a w e l l - f u n c t i o n i n g g r o u p h a s t o b e a b l e t o r e a c t o n i m p u l s e sc o m i n g f r o m t h e o u t s i d e . i s t h u s t h e r h y t h m o f t h e s e i m p u l s e sc o m i n g f r o m t h e o u t s i d e , a n d t o w h i c h t h e g r o u p i s s u p p o s e dt o r e a c t , w h i c h d e t e r m i n e s t h e a p p r o p r i a t e ref erence durat ion. \ ^ / ec a n t h u s i d e n t i f y t h e a p p r o p r i a t e r e f e r e n c e p e r i o d w i t h t h e t i m e s p a nt h e g r o u p d i s p o s e s f o r i t s r e a c t i o n i n a given context. t So an army (or a guerrila unit, or a task force) is supposedo react particularly fast, and its referenceperiod is thus very short and the c o r r e s p o n d i n gv a l e n c e a n d c h a n n e l c a p a c i t y a r e v e r y s m a l ( u = 4 , c = 6 ) ' T h i s r e a c t i o n s p e e d i s e n h a n c e db y a v e r y p r e c s e a n d r i g o r o u s c o d e . A r m yu n i t s h a v i n g a h i e r a r c h i c s t r u c t u r e , a v a l e n c e o f 4 a n d a c h a n n e l capacity of 6, have thus a critical groupsize of about 1000men (tfris critical g r o u p s i z e w a s r e s p e c t e dp r a c t i c a l l y a l I t h r o u g h h i s t o r y ) .
e*,

1(-

& 5.(" l - o . - ; ' )"+$4<:A /--/

->" Y
) -

i^" 'A)|--r" iiXu:4:.h: -L i./4: .1-1._(-i. _;'-->

-:i{7

?zr'- .ra-I>'
a . a

i.q -1,>'Ii'- \s.' F _,,r Y.?i;.../l:' '-.o j . . !!\-" '

{ o- \

,/

\l-

a--}

),

.+,

U n i t s o f g u e r r i l l a s ( w h i c ho f t e n h a v e t c h a v e a n e g a l i t a r i a n s t r u c t u r e for different r e a s o n s ) , h a v i n g t h e s a m ev a l u e s o f v a l e n c e a n d c h a n n e l g r o w b e y o n di 6 m e n , a s

capacity as does the army, can with difficulty there is situated the critical

g r o u p s z e f o r e g a li t a r i a n g r o u p s . ( f n e i "completely c h a r a c t e r i s t i c g r a p h f o r a n e g a li t a r i a n g r o u p i s a "edges" Iimiting a "faceil follow a orientable graph," in which all c i r c u i t w h o s ea r r o w s e n s e s a r e c o h e r e n t w i t h t h e a r r o w s e n s e s o f t h e " f a c e s " ; i t i s o b v i o u st h a t i f t h e circuit Iimiting the neighbouring d e g r e eo f a s u m m i t i n s u c h a g r a p h i s l i m i t e d t o f o u r a n d t h e l e n g t h o f the longest path to six edges, the graph has to be very small.) G o v e r n m e n ta r e o r g a n i z a t i o n s o p e r a t i n g w i t h v a r i o u s r e a c t i o n s p e e d s , s the shortest of which is seldomless than a month; a church (for

t7

e x a m p l e )d o e s n o t n e e d t o r e a c t f a s t e r , i n g e n e r a , than several d e c a d e sa f t e r t h e i m p u l s e . T h u s a g o v e r n m e n t a n f u n c t i o n c tolerably w e l I i n a c o u n t r y h a v i n g s e v e r a l m i I i o n i n h a b i t a n t s . This size cannor be exceeded xcept in countries with a particulary e stable sociar context, wherein people are governedmore by routine than by governrnent d e c i s i o n s . F o r t h e s a m er e a s o n sa c h u r c h c a n e a s i y count several h u n d r e dm iI I i o n s o f b e l i e v e r s . Thus critical

groupsize becomes articularly important in periods p of c r i s i s , w h e n r o u t i n e b r e a k s d o w n a n d t h e o r g a ni z a t i o n ' , s react i on s p e e d h a s t o b e c o m e p ar t i e u I a r I y r a p i d .

t8

V.

S O C I A L O N S E Q U E N CF E X C E E D I N G I T I C A L R O U P S I Z E C O ES CR G

A groupor organization havinga particular social structure (which c a n b e d e f i n e d b y t h e m a t h e m a t i c a s t r u c t u r e ) , a n d t h e m e m b e r s f o which have a characteristic valence and channel capacity (which can be d e f i n e d e m p i r i c a l y ) , a n d w h i c h g r o u p o r o r g a n i z a t i o n i s e x p e c t e d t o act with a given speed,has a constraint on its size, a constraint which can be specif ied by the preceding data. limit on the size of sucha groupthe critical looks rather theoretical at fi rst qlance. \^/e al led the upper c groupsize. All this

W h a tw i l l

h a p p e ni f s u c h a g r o u p o u t g r o w sc r i t i c a l

groupsize?

T h i s i s a p r a g m a t i cq u e s t i o n .

G r o w i n gb e y o n dc r i t i c a l

g r o u p s i z em e a n s

a n o v e r l o a d o n i t s m e m b e r s ' c a p a c i t i e s ,a n d b e c a u s e f t h i s o v e r l o a d o they start to perform their respective tasks in the group or

o r g a n i z a t i o n i n a n i m p r o p e rw a y : t h u s t h e w h o l e g r o u p s t a r t s t o w o r k g improperly. Messages et blurred, they wil I be switched erroneously, the feedbackstops, etc. The decayof a group or organization can size.

s t a r t w i t h i t s g r o w i n g b e y o n di t s c r i t i c a l

T h e p r o c e s s o f d e c a y o f a g r o u p o r o r g a n i z a t i o n g r o w i n g b e y o n dc r i t i c a l groupsizecan fo low different a. scenarios: the group starts to function more sowly and ts "reaction speedil t o e x t e r n a l i m p u l s e sw i l l g e t s l o w : t h i s p h e n o m e n oc o r r e s p o n d s t o n

an increase in the reference period in our formula, which can be admitted if t h e i m p u l s e s o f t h e e x t e r i o r a r e t h e m s e l v e ss l o w , b u t

can be catastrophic in periods of crisis; b. t h e g r o u p m a k e se f f o r t s to keep the original character of its into

social structure, and in order to do so it has to spl it

r9

s m a l e r g r o u p s : i f , f o r e x a m p l e ,a n , ' e g a l i t a r i a n , , g r o u p ( w h i c h needs to stick to its fast reaction speed) grows larger than a group of l6 members,t cannot keep its "egalitarian" structure i without spl itting c. i n t o t w o " e g a li t a r i a n " a n d i n d e p e n c e n n e w g r o u p s ; t b u t c h a n g e si t s s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e : f o r the groupdoes not spl it,

e x a m p l e ,a n e g a li t a r i a n g r o u p o f f a s t r e a c t o n s p e e d , g r o w i n g b e y o n dl 6 m e m b e r s n d n o t w a n t i n g t o s p l i t , a can continue to

f u n c t i o n s u c c e s s f u ll y b y c h a n g i n g i t s s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e f r o m a n e g a li t a r i a n i n t o a h i e r a r c h i c o n e ( w h i c h h a s a c r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z e , '|000 w i t h i n t h e s a m ec o n d i t i o n s , o f a b o u t perscns); most successf u l e g a l i t a r i a n g r o u p s g r o w b e y o n dt h e i r c r i t i c a l they attract size (because

m a n yn e w m e m b e r s ) n d t h u s l o s e v e r y r a p i d l y t h e i r a

egaitarian character: in a way, their successis the tool of their decay.

It

is very importantto note, in order to avoid any misunderstanding: g r o u p s i z e i s n o t a g u a r a n t e eo f t h e g r o u p ' s g o o d f u n c t i o n i n g , g r o u p s i z ed o e s n o t groupsizedoes

critical it

is but a condition: a group undercritical

n e c e s s a r li y f u n c t o n w e l l , n e c e s s a r li y m is f u n c t i o n .

but a groupover critica

T h e p r i n c i p l e o f c r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z e t h u s i m p li e s v e r y s e r i o u s a n d u n a v oi d a b l e c o n s e q u e n c e s o r a n y s o c i e t y . f These consequences re a sizes is the

i n e v i t a b l e b e c a u s eo n e o f t h e f a c t o r s d e f i n i n g c r i t i c a l

biological constrants to which the species is submitted.

O n e o f t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t c o n s e q u e n c eis t h e i r n p o s s i b i l i t y o f p l a n e t s ary communicationor mankind,as mankind, by its sheer number, is f r r o r en u m e r o u st h a n a n y c r i t i c a l groupsize value could admit. utopias. This

c o n s e q u e n c e i g h t b e t h e e n d o f m a n yp o l i t i c a l m

C o n s i d e r i n gt h e a c t u a l d i m e n s i o n s f m a n yh u m a n r g a n i z a t i o n s w h i c h o o o u t g r e wa n y a d m i s s i b l ec r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z ew i t h i n t h e I i m i t s o f a

r e a s o n a b e r e a c t i o n s p e e d , a h y a t t e m p t a t c o m m ui n a t i o n w i t h i n t h e s e l c ' r s e l f - b l o c k e d . " \ ^ / et h u s c a n n o t h o p e o r g a ni z a t i o n s g e t s to be able to b y p a s s t h i s b l o c k a g e b y u s i n g s o p h i s t i c a t e d t e c h n o o g y , b e c a u s et h e 20

b o c k a g ed o e s n o t o r i g i n a t e f r o m t h e d e f i c i e n c i e s o f s o m et e c h n i c a l s e t u p b u t f r o m t h o s e o f t h e h u m a nb r a i n , a n d w e c a n n o t b y p a s s t h e p a h u m a nb r a i n i n c o m m u n i c a t i o n r o c e s s e s c o n c e r n i n g h u m a n s n d t a k i n g p l a c e a m o n gh u m a n s .

L e t u s t a k e f o r e x a m p ea n e v e r y d a y f e a t u r e : a c e n t r a l t e e v i s i o n transmitter which, by hypothesis,could transmit influencesto a quasiu n l i m i t e d n u m b e ro f r e c e i v e r s .

Here is the probem: this process does not really represent a communic a t i o n s y s t e m , a s ( f o r e x a m p l e )a l receivers could switch off their

t sets or pay no attention to the messageransmitted, or even completely misinterpret it. I n o r d e r t o m a k et h i s p r o c e s s a n e f f i c i e n t

s c o m m u n i c a t i o n y s t e m , i t w o u l d b e n e c e s s a r yt o m a k e i t c o n t a i n s o m e a p p a r a t u sw h i c h c o u l d f a c i I i t a t e f e e d b a c k t o w a r d s t h e c e n t r e ( i . " . c h a n n eIl i n g t h e s e t r s a n s w e r so r s e n d i n g q u e s t i o n s t o t h e c e n t r a l t r a n s m ti t e r ) .

B u t , w h i c h e v e r w a y t h e c e n t r e m i g h t b e o r g a n i z e d , f e e d b a c k c o m in g i n f r o m s e v e r a l m iI 1i o n s o u r c e s c o u l d n o t b e a s si m i I a t e d : t h e f e e d b a c k m a s sa r r i v i n g i n t o t h e c e n t r e w o u l d b e l a r g e r t h a n a n y s p e c i f i c valence. E v e n i f w e c o n c e d e d t h a t t h e v a i e n c e o f a m a c h i n er e c e i v i n g

t h e f e e d b a c kc o u l d o e a r g e r t h a n t h e f e e d b a c k m a s s , t h e h u m a n sw h o t h a d t o p r o g r a m m eh e m a c h i n e c o u l d n o t c j o i t p r o p e r l y . ( l n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e 0 r w e l l i a n B i g B r o t h e r c a n ' t e c h n i c a y s p e a k i n g , n o t funct ion.)

2l

I n m y p e r s o n a l l a n g u a g eI c a l t h i s r i m i t a t i o n o f p l a n e t a r y c o m m u n i c a t i o n ( l i m i t a t i o n r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e n u m e r i c a l c o n s t r a i n t i m p li e d b y l g r o u p s i z e ) t h e r r B a b e T o w e rs y n d r o m e . " T h e b i b l i c a l i m a g e i s perfect: an organization (the builders of the tower) grows, and when critical g r o w i n g , i t m e n a c e s o d . G o dd o e s n o t r e a c t : H e s i m p l y w a i t s t i l t h e G c r i t i c a l g r o u p s z ee f f e c t m a n i f e s t s i t s e l f . T h i s h a p p e n si n e v i t a b l y , a n d t h e b u i l d e r s ' o r g a n i z a t i o n g e t s a u t o m a t i c a ll y b l o c k e d b y t h e , ' n o i s e " i n c o m m u n i c a t i o na s t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n g r e w t o o l a r g e . ,

22

VI.

C R I T I C A L R O U P S I A E DB E Y O N D G ZN

Theprincipe of the critical

g r o u p s i z eh a s s e v e r a l i n t e r e s t i n g The first of such consequences

i c o n s e q u e n c e sn s o c i o l o g y a n d p o l i t i c s .

is the emergencof a newsocial structure: what I call a society with e " w e a kc o m m u n i c a t i o n . " L e t u s e x p l a i n t h i s s t r u c t u r e .

\ ^ / h ew e i n v e s t i g a t e d t h e i d e a o f c r i t i c a l n

groupsize, we saw that the

d e c i si v e f a c t o r s w e r e i n v a r i a n t s o f b i o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r ( v a l e n c e a n d c h a n n e l c a p a c i t y ) , a n d t h a t t h e s e f a c t o r s h a v e r e l a t i v e l y s m a lI n u m e r i c v a u e s w h e n t h e r e f e r e n c e p e r i o d i s c o n s d e r e dq u i t e s h o r t (tfratwhich has to be done if we want to be realistic). Critical

g r o u p s w e r e t h u s v e r y s m a l l g r o u p s w i t h a v e r y r e d u c e d a m o u n to f c i n t e r n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ,a s r n o s t c o m m u n i c a t i o n s o u l d n o t r e a c h p e r s o n s s i t u a t e d f a r f r o m t h e s o u r c e ( " f a r " m e a n st h a t t h e d i s t a n c e i s b m e a s u r e d y t h e n u m b e ro f t r a n s m i s s i o n s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n v e y i n f l u e n c e ) .

l , J e o n s i d e r e dt h i s c r i t i c a l c

g r o u p a s a n r r i s l a n d ' rw i t h a z o n e o f n o n But conditions for the critical group

c o m m u n i c a t i os u r r o u n d i n g i t . n

n could be interpreted otherwise: in a communication etwork containing a n u m b e ro f p e r s o n s a n d o b j e c t s t h e r e c a n e x i s t a c r i t i c a l group around

e a c h p e r s o n ( o r o b j e c t ) i n t h e s o c i e t y , c o n s i d e r e da s t h e r r c e n t r e " o f t h i s g r o u p . S u c ha n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s p o s s i b l e i f t h e I i n k s c o m p o s i n g t h e n e t w o r k a r e a r r a n g e d i n s u c h a w a y t h a t t h e n u m b e ro f i n k s relating a particular person to the others does not exceedthe number admitted by valence.

T h i s s o c i e t y , e v e n t h o u g h i t c o n t a n s a v e r y l a r g e n u m b e ro f r i n d i v i d u a l s ,c o n t a i n s a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l n u m b e o f l i n k s : i t c o n I ' w e a kc o m m ui n a t i o n . " is based

23

7\--7< /\ -,\.4?.a;<
--*, -} /-r. \

"y'----->e .-

"\1\l
r---+.:--.*--> '/\ / \

.:->\" /\-.

\ / \ a , r .\o. / \ -=_1.\- * '

.;:,;

The other newsocial concept,which I cal a ,'non-geographical,' o r g a n i z a t i o n , c a n b e e x p l a i n e d b y t h e e f f e c t s o f m o d e r nc o m m u n i c a t i o n t e c h n o l o g yc o u p l e d w i t h t h e c r i t i c a l groupeffect.

l f a c o m m u n i c a t i o n e t w o r k c a n n o t p a s s b e y o n dc r i t i c a n

groupsize in

i t s f u n c t i o n i n g ( s u c h a s w e s a w i n t h e l a s t p a r a g r a p h ) ,t h e r e i s n o constraint which would indicate, on the other hand, that all proximity to eachother. members of an organizationor groupshould effectivey I ive in physicaI C o m m u n i c a t i ot n c h n o l o g y ( b e g i n n i n gw i t h e

w r i t i n g ) i n t r o d u c e s h e " n o n - g e o g r a p h i c a o"r g a n i z a t i o n , b u t t i l t h e t l d e v e l o p m e n t f m o d e r nc o r n m u n i c a t i o t e c h n i q u e s t h e r e a c t i o n s p e e d o f o n such an organizationwas necessariiyvery slow, so that the corresponding critica g r o u p s i z ec o u d t h u s b e r e l a t i v e l y a r g e . Modern c o m m u n a t i o n t e c h n o l o g y c h a n g e st h s I m it a t i o n , a n d t h e n o n ic " geographicalgroup becomeson-l ne"; its reaction speedthus becomes practically as fast as in territoria of this groups. As a direct consequence i m p r o v e m e n t , h e o n - l i n e n o n - g e o g i - a p h i c ag r o u p h a s t o r e d u c e t l q r o u p s i z e sa s d o c a s s i c a

i t s s i z e t o o n e b e l o w t h e s a m ec r t i c a l g r o u p s.

Both these new mocjels f society, the one with weakcommunication nd o a t h e n o n - g e o g r a p h i c a o n - l i n e s o c i e t y , c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d a s o f g r e a t i m p o r t a n c ei n p o l i t i c s . A n r o n g t h e r c o n s e q u e n c e s t h e s e n r o d esl m i g h t o ,

s h o wt h e s i z e - l i m i t s o f n a t i o n s i n a n e w I i q h t . consider here the term "nation" as meaning set of people a

I will

24

h a vi n g s o m e o r g a n i z a t i o n w hi c h m ai n t a i n s a n o r d e r a c c e p t e d by c o n v e n t i o n . \ , / ec a l l s u c h a n o r g a n i z a t i o n a " g o v e r n m e n t . " T h e c o n v e n t i o n a l o r d e r m a n i f e s t s i t s e l f i n s o m ep r e s e t p a t t e r n o f " i n f l u e n c e s " a m o n gp e r s o n s a n d / o r o b j e c t s b e l o n g i n g t o t h e n a t i o n . i S u c h p a t t e r n s a r e t h o s e c o n c e r n i n g s t a t u s , p r o p e r t y , d e c i s i o n m a kn g , etc.

\,/e il I try to consider size-limits of naiions on the basis of the w critical g r o u p s i z e c o r r e s p o n d i n gt o t h e r e a c t i o n s p e e d d e t e r m i n e d b y Obviously,the critical size of

e v e n t s c o m i n gf r o m t h e e x t e r i o r .

o r g a n i z a t i o n sw i t h i n t h e n a t i o n , o r o f t h e n a t i o n a s a w h o l e c o n s i d e r e d as one organization, wil be different accordingto the special c o n c e r n st h e s e o r g a n i z a t i o n s h a v e t o d e a l w i t h , a n d a c c o r d i n g t o h o w m u c hs u c h c o n c e r n s c a n b e r e g u l a t e d b y s h e e r r o u t i n e ' w i t h o u t t h e "propertyrris o r g a n i z a t i o nh a v i n g t o i n t e r v e n e . ( f o r e x a m p e , r e g u la t e d e v e r y w h e r e b y r o u t i n e , t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n n o t i n t e r v e n i n g e x c e p t i n c a s e s o f a b u s ea g a i n s t t h i s r o u t i n e . )

T h e s er e f l e x i o n s i m p l y t h a t i n n e a r l y a l l a nation wil

d o m a i n st h e s i z e - l i m i t o f

b e d e t e r m i n e db y t h e s i z e - i m i t o f t h e e x e c u t i v e b e ; t h u s a l o o s e lY g o v e r n e do n e , a s a

o r g a n i z a t i o nw h o s e c o n c e r n t h e s a i d l i m i t w i l l

g o v e r n e dn a t i o n c a n b e f a r l a r g e r t h a n a s t r i c t l y

l o o s e g o v e r n i n g s t y l e n e c e s s i t a t e s s n r alle r o r g a n i z a t i o n s t h a n a s t r i c t one, and these smal er governingorganizations can be nearer to c r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z et h a n t h e l a r g e r o n e s . T h u s i n t e r n a l p o l i c y , o r c a n b e i m p e m e n t e db y t h e g o v e r n m e n to f a l a r g e n a t i o n only if sucha policy is a "oose" one (i.". admittingexisting e c o n o m i cp o l i c y , r o u t i n e a n d m i n i m u ml a w e n f o r c e m e n t ) , o r i f it o is implemented n a v e r y m u c h d e c e n t r a l i z e d b a si s , b y I a w e n f o r c e m e n t o r g a n i z a t i o n s w hi c h a r e e x t r e m e l y i n d e p e n d e n ti n r e g a r d t o t h e c e n t r e . be excellent political crisis. Both cases might in a

i principles, but both becomenefficient

T h i s s t a t e m e n t i s v e r y m u c h c o r r e s p o n d i n gt o o u r a c t u a l

e v e r y d a ye x p e r i e n c e : l a r g e n a t i o n - s t a t e s h a v e g o v e r n m e n t sw h i c h b e c o m e r o r e f r a g i l e i n c r i s i s t h a n t h o s e o f s m a lI e r o n e s . n

Thefact that the governingorganizations of a nation can become

25

f r a g i l e m a k e s i m p o r t a n t t h e s y s t e mo f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e a t i o n s f o r s u c h g o v e r n m e n t s . l n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s m e a n , f o r f r a g i l e g o v e r n m e n t s ,a m e a n st o s l o w d o w n t h e r h y t h m o f i m p u l s e s c o m i n g f r o m t h e o u t s i d e , a n d thus a way to keep a relatively i m p u ls e s . slow reaction speed in the face of such A s w e s a w e a r l i e r , t h i s m e a n st h a t t h e r e f e r e n c e d u r a t i o n size aong

i s c o n s i d e r a b l y i n c r e a s e da n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g r i t i c a l c with it.

It

i s e v i d e n t t h a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s d o n o t r a d i c a ll y i m p r o v e

t h e f r a g i l i t y o f g o v e r n m e n t s ,a s t h e y d o n o t r e d u c e t h e s i z e o f a nation undercritical s i z e , b u t c l e a r l y r e d u c et h e s i z e o f l a w groupsize.

enforcing organizationsto belowcritical

B e si d e s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e a t i o n s t h e m s e l v e s r e s u l t f r o m o p e r a t i o n s performed by a very much reduced group of persons who assume the f u n c t i o n o f r r m o u t h p i e c e s "i :. e . w h o s p e a k i n t h e n a m eo f a n a t i o n . A s t h e s e a r e n o t v e r y n u m e r o u s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e a t i o n s b e t w e e nr r m o u t h p i e c e s " w o r k g e n e r a l l y w e l l : f o r e i g n p o l i c y i s m a d ew i t h i n a s o r t o f e x c l u s i v e c l u b , w h o s em e m b e r a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y f e w f o r t h e , ' c l u b , ' t o s stay undercritical groupsize.

H e n c et h e p r e f e r e n c e o f a l l rather than domestc pol icy. i

fragile

governmentsor makingforeign f

B u t t h e p r o b l e mo f g o v e r n m e n t a fl r a g i l t y i s n o t s e t t l e d s o s i m p l y , and the questionof the "credibil ity of the mouthpiecesarises. " I n d e e d , w e s t a t e d a b o v e t h a t a c o m m u n i c a t i o n y s t e mw i t h i n a n a t i o n s s u r p a s s i n ga c e r t a i n c r i t i c a l s i z e c a n n o tw o r k ; i t follows from this

t h a t t h e r e i s o f t e n n o g u a r a n t e e t h a t t h e p r o m i s e so f a ' r n n u t h p i e c e , " p r o m i s e s m a d e i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g r e e m e n t s ,w i I I b e e f f e c t i v e l y This simple fact is a major difficulty in nnking international kept.

relations: governments ave to be sure that the nation which is h r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e m o u t h p i e c ew i I I r e a l l y e n d o r s e w h a t t h e m o u t h p i e c e promised. As we saw before, when talking about the TV system, it is

not easy to get feedbackto a message mitted by a central transmitter, e so it is very difficult to keepup the credibility of a government's

26

i n o u t h pe c e .

AlltheseconSequencesofthecriticalgroupsizeprinciplemakelarge state organizationsappear increasingly fragi le. This growing i s s i m u l t a n e o u w i t h a g r o w i n gs t a b i i t y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l s o o organizations (composed f the rnouthpieces f the increasingly fragi le fragility (nong o v e r n m e n t s )a s t h e s e o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e u n d e r c r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z e , d g e o g r a p h i c n - i n e o r g a n i z a t i o n s ) . ( f n e m u c h - d i s c u s s em u l t i n a t i o n a l o c o r p o r a t i o n s a r e b u t o n e e x a m p l eo f t h i s t r e n d , e x a c t l y a s a r e t h e a n p r e a n d r n o r en u m e r o u s g e n c i e s o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s . ) T h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t sc a n b e c o n s i d e r e d i n a n e w m a n n e r ' o n c e w e l o o k a t "weakcommunication'l t h e ma s m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f a n e m e r g i n gs o c i e t y w i t h o which can be a "non-geographical'r ne. Like any other trend, it has o both goodand deeterious aspects, and the comprehension f the fact that they are, in a way, the results of the regulating effect of the critica But s i z e p r i n c i p l e , m i g h t h e l p t o f i n d s o m el e v e r a g e o n i t . defining a principle and recognition of its effects is still far from f i n d i n g t h e , , l e v e r s " f o r s t e e r i n g ( t f t i s m i g h t p e r h a p sb e o u r l u c k ) .
a "weak that a 'rcentreless" network' a Society with c o m m u n i c a t i o nm i g h t b e a g o a l w o r t h s t r i v i n g f o r , a s t h e y m i g h t b e " better toos for survival than is our actual society. I aso think

I t h i n k , p e r S O n al ly ,

that the effects of critical

sizes drive us in this direction, but

m u c hm o r e s t u d y i s n e c e s s a r y b e f o r e w e a r e a b l e t o s p e a k o u t w i t h cert i tude.

27

VII.

CONCLUSION

\^/e ereduring this study first w

explainingthe term,,critical groups i z e , " t h e m a n n e ri n w h i c h p r a c t i c a l n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s c a n b e obtained,

t h e n c o n s i d e r i n g s o m eo f t h e s o c i o l o g i c a l a n d p o l i t i c a l e f f e c t s of the critica group principle. I would I ike to close this paper by some conjectures belonging to futurology: what might be the influence of this principle on our near future? l^/e re at present living in a world which is going to get poorer, a as c o m p a r e dt o t h e i m a g e e a r l i e r d e c a d e s h a d o f t h e f u t u r e . R e s o u r c e sa r e d i m i n i s h i n gf a s t e r t h a n s c i e n c ea n d p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s could i n v e n t a l t e r n a t i v e m e t h o d st o r e p l a c e t h e m o r u s e t h e m d i f f e r e n t l y . T h u s t h e i n d u s t r i a i z e d w o r l d g e t s p o o r b e c a u s ei t s d e v e l o p m e n t depends upon the abundance f such resources, and the non-industrial o ized world impoverishes venmorerapidly, as it was countingon industria e ization t o e s c a p ef r o m p o v e r t y , t h u s l o s i n g t h e r o u t i n e ( n o n - i n d u s t r i a l ) which ensuredits survival in the past. I have here no space to detail

t h e i m a g eo f a r t p o o r w o r l d r ' ( f h a v e d o n e

so in several other papers), but this summary escription d of the trend might suffice to characterize the general situation, which leads necessarily to the emergence f newattitudes towards poverty, o whatever these newattitudes miqht be. such newattitudes towards increasing poverty are actual ly the main t o p i c o f a l I " w i s e m e n ' s c o u n c i l s " a l I a r o u n dt h e w o r l d , a n d r w i s e men'everywhere have very clever recommendations howing how such a n e wa t t i t u d e c o u l d b e a c h i e v e d . T h e r e i s b u t o n e p r o b l e ml e f t : how c o u d t h e s e r e c o m m e n d a t i o nb e d i f f u s e d t o , d i g e s t e d b y a n d s

28

b i m p l e m e n t e d y t h o s e w h o mt h e y c o n c e r n , i . e .

the "man in the streetrr?

A n d , b e s i d e s , h o wc o u l d t h i s b e d o n e s u f f i c i e n t l y f a s t , f a s t e r t h a n the "evolution of the context"?

group effect is true, the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n sb y t h e " w i s e m e n " : ! I P _ ] J c a n g i be done. The structure of communicationn actual society, vaence l f t h e h y p o t h e s i sa b o u t t h e c r i t i c a l a n d c h a n n e lc a p a c i t y a s i t i s w i t h o u r s p e c i e s , t h e n u m b e ro f p e o p l e

op supposed o be involved in the recommended erations, and final ly t the reference period admitted by the context, cannot be reconciled with "wise the constraint of criticai groupsize. Thusthe organizationof o m e n ' s c o u n c i l s , " p r o d u c i n g r e c o m m e n d a t i o nts b e d i f f u s e d b y g o v e r n m e n t s , d o e s n o t s e e mt h e a p p r o p r i a t e s t r a t e g y .

s G e t t i n g p o o r h a s i t s s p e c i f i c s p e e d , a n d g o v e r n m e n ta r e h e l p l e s s i n i t h e f a c e o f p h e n o m e n a c c o m p a n y i n gt ( u n e m p l o y m e n ti,n f l a t i o n , etc.).

b As a resut, the man in the street feels himself abandoned y the institutions he re ied on. A s h e i s f u n d a m e n t a l l yi n t e r e s t e d i n h i s

ownsurvival, he starts to invent particuar solutions to assure it; a s h e h a s n o d i f f u s i n g o r g a n i z a t i o na t h i s d i s p o s a l , h i s p a r t i c u l a r i n v e n t i o n s a r e n o t l a r g e l y k n o w n : t h e y a r e k n o w ng e n e r a l l y i n h i s w particuar community lone, in ful I accordance ith the critical a principle. group

T h u s , o n e a l t e r n a t i v e o f h u m a ns u r v i v a m i g h t b e b a s e d o n t h e i s i m u l t a n e o u sn v e n t i o n o f s u r v i v a l t e c h n i q u e s( i . e . n e w a t t i t u d e s i n w d f a c e o f p o v e r t y ) , i m p l e m e n t ew i t h i n s m a l l c o m m u n i t i e s i t h w e a k a Communicationrlong them. e B a r t e r e c o n o m yV e r s u S m o n e y - b a s e d c o n o m y , s u b si s t e n c e e c o n o m yv e r s u s e m p o y m e n t , e t c . , m ig h t b e s u c h a t t i t u d e s , r w h i c h c a n n o t b e r e c o m m e n d efd o m t h e I ' o u t s i d e i l b u t h a v e t o b e inventedby each group in its turn. difference T h e s ea t t i t u d e s m i g h t s e e m of similar to the recommendations the'rwise,rrbut - and here is the they cannot be propagated; they have to be invented by

t h o s e w h o mt h e y c o n c e r n . Thus, in the face of survival in a world which gets poor, humanity

29

m i g h t i n v e n t t h e s o c i e t y w i t h " w e a k c o m m u n i c a t i o n , "a s a n e f f e c t o f the critical groupprinciple.

The other alternative is a tragic one: I am thinking of genocide, w h i c h b e c a m ei m p l e m e n t a b l e i t h p r o g r e s s i n m i i t a r y t e c h n o l o g y . w r r c l e a n "g e n o c i d e ( d e s t r u c t i o n o f l a r g e g r o u p s of people in a region without destroying all possible. r e s o u r c e s a t t h e s a m et i m e ) h a s t o d a y b e c o m e

P e o p l e s t i c k i n g t o t h e s t a t u s q u o ( a l a r g e n u m b e ro f

p e o p l e t o d a y ) w h o w a n t t o s t o p t h e i m p o v e r i s h m e np r o c e s s m i g h t p r e f e r t t h i s a c t , w h i c h c o u d b e i m p l e m e n t ew i t h o u t t h e c o l l a b o r a t i o n o f a d l a r g e n u m b e ro f p e o p l e a s i n t h e l a s t w o r d w a r s ( a n d t h u s d o e s n o t i m p y t h e n r o b i l i z a t i o n o f i g a n t i c a r m i e sw h o c o u l d r e v o l t ) . A v o i d i n g g n r o b i li z a t i o n a n d u s e o f o t h e r t o o l s f o r a " c l e a n g e n o c i d e ' i s n o l e s s v u n e r a b et o t h e c r i t i c a l g r o u p s i z ec o n s t r a i n t t h a n t h e f i r s t alternative, and I do not see howthis planetary piracy could easily be p r e v e nt e d .
i

O b v i o u s l y , b o t h s c e n a r i o s h a v e b e e n e x p l a i n e d i n a n u t t e r l y s i m p li f i e d m a n n e r , a n d t h e r e a r e m a n yo t h e r w h i c h r e m a i n p o s si b e . optimist, I think that the first Being an

s c e n a r i o m i g h t b e m u c ht h e m o r e ( t h e s i m u t a n e o u si n v e n t i o n o f t h e " l i f e b o a t ' o r g a n i z p r o b a b l eo n e least locally.

a t i o n s ) , r u h i c h d o e s n o t m e a nt h a t t h e o t h e r o n e c o u l d n o t h a p p e na t T h e r e a r e s o m ep o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n so n e a r t h w h i c h e s t a b l i s h e d t h e m s e e s b y p r a c t i s i n g g e n o c d e . v I n c o n c l u s i o n , I t h i n k t h a t " w i s e m e n ' sc o u n c i l s ' r r a c t u a r o l e s h o u l d b e to see howto assure that our future should follow the first scenario i n s t e a d o f t h e s e c o n d o n e , a n d I t h i n k a s w e l l t h a t n r o r es t u c l y o f a n d knowledge bout the critical a aim. g r o u p s i z e p h e n o m e n om i g h t h e l p u s i n t h i s n No doubt such knowledge ill not lead us to find the I'levers" w

p e r m i t t i n g t h e m a n i p u l a t i o no f h u m a n o c i e t y , b u t i f w e c a n f i n d w a y s s h o w t o a v o i d a t l e a s t t h e w o r s t d e v e l o p m e n t s ,i t s o m ee f f o r t s to obtain such knowledoe. is worthwhile to make

Critical

groupsize might be one of our number-one roblems. p

?n