Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DeagolModel F07Q2
DeagolModel F07Q2
rate yr ago
20
18
15
13
31-Dec 7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-
rate yr ago
Web order daily rate (fwd 30 dma) and regressions
rate
ng (next 2 months)
% rel rate yr ago events
-24.1% 26.63 35.08 EoQ interp 4/12 28021 16.70 26.3 -37%
-11.4% 19.32 21.81 interp 4/1 27831 16.95 26.1 -35%
-12.1% 23.04 26.19 MWSF project 5/16 28616 18.40 27.2 -32%
-14.1% 18.91 22.02
0.4% 19.00 18.93 shuffle
25.5% 23.25 18.53
11.4% 22.92 20.57
5.3% 20.44 19.41
-1.2% 17.15 17.36
-0.4% 17.61 17.67
2.2% 16.84 16.47
16.0% 17.17 14.80 iTV shp
20.4% 17.04 14.16
16.1% 16.45 14.17 EoQ
12.0% 16.30 14.55 8x PM
29.4% 16.78 12.97 2.00 (interpolation)
14.5% 17.25 15.07 1.95 (interpolation)
21.6% 16.88 13.89 16.70 (current trend and planned events)
19.2% 17.60 14.77 2.05 (interpolation)
17.4% 19.20 16.36 18.40 (long-term trends and seasonality)
r 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun
yr ago events
r 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun
yr ago events
May 27-May 3-Jun
May 27-May 3-Jun
Monthly interpolation / projections / adjustments
Month est Ord# est rate rate regr %diff avg adj acc adj err
Dec-03 6934 12.3 8.5 44% 17% -185% 40%
Jan-04 7252 10.5 9.1 15% 12% -169% 6%
Feb-04 7542 9.6 9.4 1% -7% -168% 13%
Mar-04 7801 8.5 9.9 -14% -12% -182% -3%
Apr-04 8060 8.5 10.1 -16% -12% -198% -7%
May-04 8323 8.7 10.7 -19% -15% -217% -7%
Jun-04 8607 9.4 11.1 -15% -13% -232% -3%
Jul-04 8898 9.6 11.3 -15% -11% -247% -7%
Aug-04 9210 10.3 11.5 -10% -3% -258% -12%
Sep-04 9508 9.8 11.6 -15% -4% -273% -19%
Oct-04 9812 10.0 12.1 -17% -9% -290% -14%
Nov-04 10168 11.7 12.5 -6% 10% -296% -28%
Dec-04 10879 23.4 13.9 69% 35% -227% 52%
Jan-05 11334 15.0 15.0 0% 7% -227% -12%
Feb-05 11816 15.9 15.5 3% -3% -225% 9%
Mar-05 12272 15.0 15.7 -4% -9% -229% 8%
Apr-05 12724 14.9 15.9 -6% -10% -235% 6%
May-05 13252 17.4 15.9 9% -7% -226% 24%
Jun-05 13689 14.4 16.2 -11% -13% -237% 2%
Jul-05 14089 13.2 16.5 -20% -15% -257% -9%
Aug-05 14512 13.9 16.7 -16% -9% -273% -13%
Sep-05 15057 18.0 16.9 6% 0% -267% 10%
Oct-05 15672 18.8 17.3 9% -2% -258% 18%
Nov-05 16525 26.1 17.7 48% 23% -210% 38%
Dec-05 18496 60.3 18.5 225% 89% 15% 191%
Jan-06 19156 21.8 19.2 14% 9% 28% 7%
Feb-06 19727 18.8 19.5 -3% -3% 25% 0% Monthly interpolation / projection / adjustments Seasonality
Mar-06 20184 15.0 19.6 -23% -15% 2% -14% 80 160% 100%
Apr-06 20610 14.1 19.5 -28% -17% -26% -18% 90%
70
May-06 21086 15.7 19.5 -20% -12% -45% -13% 80%
60 120%
Jun-06 21577 16.2 19.7 -18% -15% -64% -5% 70%
Jul-06 22039 15.2 20.0 -24% -18% -87% -9% 50 60%
Aug-06 22582 17.9 20.1 -11% -9% -98% -3% 40 80% 50%
Sep-06 23184 19.8 20.3 -2% -1% -101% -2% 30 40%
Oct-06 23749 18.6 20.4 -9% -5% -109% -6% 20 40% 30%
Nov-06 24664 30.1 20.5 47% 32% -62% 24% 10 20%
Dec-06 26090 47.0 20.5 129% 103% 67% 40% 10%
0 0% 0%
Jan-07 26703 20.2 20.8 -3% 5% 64% -12% -10
-10%
Feb-07 27317 20.2 20.8 -3% -3% 61% 1% -20 -40% -20%
Mar-07 27831 16.9 20.9 -19% -16% 43% -4%
D F A J AO D F A J AO D F A J A O D F A J A OD F A J AO DF D F A JJ S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J
Apr-07 28337 16.7 20.7 -19% -18% 23% -2% e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e e e p uu e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a
May-07 28895 18.4 20.6 -11% -11% 13% 1% c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b c b r- nl p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n
Jun-07 29456 18.5 20.5 -10% -13% 3% 5%
Jul-07 30119 21.9 23.8 -8% -15% -5% 10% est rate rate regr %diff Column G Column I
Aug-07 30779 21.7 24.0 -9% -9% -15% 0%
Sep-07 31505 23.9 24.2 -1% -1% -16% 0% Quarterly orders and revenue Stock valuation
Oct-07 32236 24.1 24.5 -2% -4% -17% 3% 12000 100 200
Nov-07 33368 37.3 24.9 50% 38% 32% 18%
Dec-07 34990 53.5 26.3 103% 103% 136% 0% 10000
Jan-08 35899 30.0 28.6 5% 5% 140% 0% 75 150
Feb-08 36762 28.5 29.3 -3% -3% 137% 0% 8000
Mar-08 37520 25.0 29.8 -16% -16% 121% 0%
Apr-08 38267 24.6 30.0 -18% -18% 103% 0% 6000 50 100
pe
May-08 39074 26.6 30.0 -11% -11% 92% 0%
Jun-08 39875 26.4 30.3 -13% -13% 79% 0% 4000
Jul-08 40667 26.1 30.5 -15% -15% 64% 0% 25 50
Aug-08 41509 27.8 30.7 -9% -9% 55% 0% 2000
Sep-08 42440 30.7 31.0 -1% -1% 54% 0%
Oct-08 43361 30.4 31.5 -4% -4% 50% 0% 0 - 0
Nov-08 44705 44.3 32.0 38% 38% 89% 0%
De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
Dec-08 46760 67.8 33.4 103% 103% 192% 0% c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar
Jan-09 47896 37.4 35.8 5% 5% 196% 0% 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 - - 04 - - - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - -
Feb-09 48973 35.5 36.6 -3% -3% 193% 0%
Mar-09 49920 31.2 37.3 -16% -16% 177% 0% orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc
Quarterly / financials
Quarter orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo rev grw opex dev g mrgn op ex cash st inv int int rate tax tax rate sh cnt eps ttm pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc 1q grw 1y grw cash/sh 1y rtrn mkt cap
Dec-03 901 2006 2227 865 1930 2231 36% 2.6% 26.7% 462 3724 1067 9 1.7% 23 27.8% 745 0.08 0.17 10.69 64.13 16.41 25.55 6.54 412% 35% 6.43 49% 7.96
Mar-04 867 1909 2201 934 2121 2272 29% 1.8% 27.8% 468 3158 1436 12 1.4% 18 24.3% 756 0.07 0.22 13.52 61.62 14.76 33.94 8.13 247% 143% 6.07 91% 10.23
Jun-04 806 2014 2500 1007 2332 2315 30% 1.7% 27.8% 479 3120 1846 13 1.3% 24 25.8% 785 0.09 0.28 16.27 57.85 13.56 35.36 8.29 237% 287% 6.32 71% 12.78
Sep-04 902 2350 2607 1087 2563 2358 37% 3.1% 27.0% 501 2969 2495 19 1.6% 41 27.0% 806 0.14 0.38 19.38 51.05 13.47 33.19 8.76 250% 271% 6.78 87% 15.62
Dec-04 1371 3490 2546 1173 2817 2402 74% 3.8% 28.5% 593 2475 3973 26 2.4% 134 31.2% 838 0.35 0.65 32.20 49.42 18.58 37.61 14.14 340% 291% 7.69 201% 26.99
Mar-05 1393 3243 2328 1265 3096 2447 70% 1.6% 29.8% 566 2254 4803 33 3.4% 145 33.3% 857.01 0.34 0.92 41.67 45.49 22.39 36.50 17.97 357% 317% 8.23 208% 35.71
Jun-05 1416 3520 2485 1365 3403 2492 75% 1.0% 29.7% 617 3094 4432 46 4.6% 153 32.3% 861 0.37 1.20 36.81 30.68 18.15 23.39 13.84 323% 327% 8.74 126% 31.68
Sep-05 1368 3678 2688 1473 3740 2538 57% -0.2% 28.1% 617 3491 4770 60 5.8% 152 31.8% 866 0.38 1.44 53.61 37.27 24.25 30.64 19.94 173% 279% 9.53 177% 46.45
Dec-05 3439 5749 1672 1599 4140 2589 65% 0.8% 27.2% 814 4150 4557 81 6.8% 266 32.0% 874 0.65 1.73 71.89 41.49 26.62 35.74 22.93 84% 166% 9.96 123% 62.85
Mar-06 1688 4359 2583 1725 4551 2638 34% 4.0% 29.8% 768 6346 1880 76 6.2% 195 32.2% 879 0.47 1.86 62.72 33.70 21.63 28.67 18.40 38% 103% 9.36 51% 55.10
Jun-06 1393 4370 3136 1862 5002 2687 24% 2.7% 30.3% 759 8013 1163 95 5.7% 189 28.6% 876 0.54 2.03 57.27 28.24 18.77 23.08 15.33 45% 69% 10.47 56% 50.19
Sep-06 1607 4837 3011 2009 5497 2737 32% 4.5% 29.2% 803 6392 3718 113 5.9% 231 32.0% 879 0.56 2.21 74.22 33.58 22.69 28.37 19.17 48% 54% 11.50 38% 65.22
Dec-06 2906 7115 2448 2167 6042 2788 7115 24% 3.3% 31.2% 898 7159 4710 126 5.9% 444 30.7% 883 1.14 2.70 84.84 31.41 23.67 26.44 19.92 76% 56% 13.44 18% 74.94
Mar-07 1740 5249 3016 2339 6641 2840 5235 20% -3.0% 30.5% 853 7320 4946 121 6.3% 278 32.0% 888 0.67 2.90 92.91 32.05 23.52 27.29 20.02 43% 56% 13.80 48% 82.55
Jun-07 1625 5200 3200 2523 7299 2893 5211 19% -2.4% 31.0% 841 7864 5193 136 6.9% 290 32.0% 892 0.69 3.05 105.37 34.53 25.00 29.73 21.53 28% 50% 14.63 84% 94.01
Sep-07 2049 6454 3150 2723 8022 2946 6451 33% -1.0% 29.5% 1015 8663 5452 137 6.7% 328 32.0% 896 0.78 3.27 114.13 34.89 25.00 30.07 21.55 39% 48% 15.76 54% 102.26
Dec-07 3485 9410 2700 2938 8817 3001 9510 32% 3.0% 30.0% 1058 10301 5725 153 6.4% 614 32.0% 900 1.45 3.58 122.27 34.11 25.00 29.14 21.36 28% 33% 17.81 44% 110.01
Mar-08 2530 7040 2782 3170 9691 3057 6970 34% 1.0% 30.0% 885 10484 6011 144 6.1% 439 32.0% 903 1.03 3.95 127.87 32.36 25.00 27.74 21.43 55% 36% 18.26 38% 115.52
Jun-08 2355 6381 2709 3420 10651 3114 6298 23% -2.5% 30.0% 812 10925 6312 172 6.0% 408 32.0% 907 0.96 4.21 134.05 31.81 25.00 27.30 21.46 38% 38% 19.00 27% 121.61
Sep-08 2564 8135 3172 3690 11707 3172 8155 26% -6.0% 30.0% 1112 11833 6627 184 6.0% 484 32.0% 911 1.13 4.57 142.01 31.11 25.00 26.67 21.43 45% 40% 20.26 24% 129.38
Dec-08 4321 11774 2725 3982 12867 3231 11761 25% -3.0% 30.0% 1346 13572 6959 202 6.0% 764 32.0% 915 1.78 4.89 148.74 30.41 25.00 25.82 21.23 22% 36% 22.44 22% 136.08
Mar-09 3159 8631 2732 4297 14142 3291 8646 23% -1.0% 29.0% 1001 13858 7307 194 6.0% 543 32.0% 919 1.26 5.11 157.82 30.86 25.00 26.35 21.35 22% 29% 23.04 23% 144.98
Jun-09 2826 7675 2716 4636 15543 3353 7663 20% 0.0% 29.0% 821 14563 7672 227 6.0% 522 32.0% 922 1.20 5.36 160.86 30.00 25.00 25.50 21.25 26% 27% 24.10 20% 148.39
Sep-09 3077 10089 3279 5002 17083 3415 10170 24% 0.0% 29.0% 1200 15920 8056 246 6.0% 631 32.0% 926 1.45 5.68 170.41 30.00 25.00 25.44 21.20 28% 24% 25.88 20% 157.86
Dec-09 5185 14388 2775 5397 18776 3479 14412 22% 0.0% 29.0% 1645 18047 8458 269 6.0% 895 32.0% 930 2.04 5.95 178.49 30.00 25.00 25.21 21.01 15% 22% 28.49 20% 166.04
Mar-10 3791 10748 2835 5824 20637 3544 10701 25% 0.0% 28.5% 1107 18699 8881 267 6.0% 711 32.0% 934 1.62 6.31 189.39 30.00 25.00 25.32 21.10 29% 23% 29.53 20% 176.91
6.43 20%
0.6652 6.82 90.35 3% 20%
24018 3.2715 7.14 113.23 35% 20%
4.53 7.58 25% 20%
4/1 4/14 4/20 5/2 5/9 5/23 6/1 6/16 7/1 7/14 7/20 8/2 8/16 10/1 10/13 10/20 11/7
F06Q1
F06Q2 .50 .50 .50
F06Q3 .57 .57 .54 .52 .45 .44 .44 .44 .44 .44 .54
F06Q4 .60 .60 .65 .66 .64 .63 .59 .55 .55 .55 .55 .56 .56 .57 .57 .56
F07Q1 .84 .85 .83 .83 .80 .79 .85 .88 .89 .89 .89 .89 .90 .90 .90 .91 .91
F07Q2 .89 .89 .86 .86 .83 .82 .80 .81 .79 .78 .76 .77 .77 .77 .76
F07Q3 .72 .71 .74 .75 .75 .75 .74
F07Q4 .76 .74
F08Q1
F08Q2
fwd12m 2.51 2.51 2.91 2.89 2.75 2.72 2.70 2.70 2.68 2.68 2.95 2.94 2.96 2.99 2.98 3.17 3.15
actual 2.73 2.90 3.05
diff -8% -8% -2%
1.50
1.25
1.00
.75
.50
.25
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 De
3.18 3.14 3.08 3.60 3.61 3.62 3.60 3.61 3.63 3.58
3.27
-6%
3.75
3.5
3.25
2.75
2.5
Dec-06 Apr-07 Jul-07
3.5
3.25
2.75
2.5
l-07
iPod iPod iPod New Switch iPod accs iTMS iPod
iPod unit inst switch iPod CPU life iPod /user /user iPod accs iTMS
Date units grw base base usrs units cycl AUP /year /year rev rev rev
Dec-03 0.7 170% 1.8 0.4 0.6 1.9 0.357 37.5 29.1 0.256 0.028 0.019
Mar-04 0.8 320% 2.5 0.7 0.7 2.5 0.345 47.1 37.5 0.264 0.033 0.027
Jun-04 0.9 268% 3.2 1.0 0.7 2.2 0.325 47.9 42.0 0.249 0.036 0.037
Sep-04 2.0 370% 5.0 2.1 1.8 2.4 0.296 47.2 41.5 0.537 0.051 0.047
Dec-04 4.6 469% 9.3 5.0 4.2 0.1 2.3 0.274 43.2 38.4 1.211 0.096 0.081
Mar-05 5.3 486% 14.2 8.4 5.0 0.2 2.4 0.236 34.3 36.8 1.014 0.089 0.127
Jun-05 6.2 560% 19.9 12.6 5.7 0.1 2.6 0.214 28.7 31.8 1.103 0.111 0.130
Sep-05 6.5 409% 25.5 17.0 5.6 0.3 2.8 0.202 24.6 27.7 1.212 0.127 0.138
Dec-05 14.0 287% 37.5 27.3 12.1 0.0 2.6 0.195 24.0 26.0 2.906 0.256 0.235
Apr-06 8.5 176% 43.9 32.9 6.4 -0.1 2.6 0.197 23.2 23.6 1.714 0.240 0.245
Jul-06 8.1 106% 49.5 38.2 5.6 0.0 2.6 0.197 21.1 22.3 1.497 0.202 0.255
Sep-06 8.7 75% 55.3 43.6 5.8 0.3 2.9 0.195 18.3 22.2 1.559 0.152 0.300
Dec-06 21.1 45% 70.0 57.3 14.7 0.3 2.5 0.177 15.3 21.8 3.427 0.242 0.392
Mar-07 10.5 38% 75.9 62.5 5.9 0.3 2.7 0.167 15.7 22.5 1.601 0.388 0.463
Jun-07 9.5 34% 80.9 66.9 5.0 0.1 2.7 0.165 16.0 21.5 1.629 0.346 0.361
Sep-07 10.5 31% 86.4 71.8 5.5 0.4 2.8 0.167 16.0 21.7 1.954 0.276 0.483
Dec-07 24.5 18% 98.9 83.1 12.6 0.6 2.6 0.170 16.0 22.0 4.165 0.358 0.575
Mar-08 11.8 16% 104.0 86.9 5.1 0.4 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.107 0.501 0.664
Jun-08 10.7 15% 108.4 90.4 4.4 0.2 2.7 iPod market
0.175 16.0 22.5 1.837 0.456 0.516
Sep-08 11.8 14% 20 113.2 94.3 4.7 0.6 2.8 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.174 0.383 0.633 200
Dec-08 27.2 12% 123.6 103.0 10.4 0.7 2.6 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.646 0.456 0.713
Mar-09 13.7 13% 128.8 106.4 5.2 0.5 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.432 0.600 0.804
15 150
Jun-09 12.2 13% 133.1 109.4 4.3 0.3 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.110 0.555 0.655
Sep-09 13.3 13% 137.6 112.8 4.5 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.441 0.481 0.771
Dec-09 30.6 13% 10 147.4 120.3 9.8 0.8 2.6 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.234 0.552 0.847 100
Mar-10 16.2 14% 153.3 123.7 5.9 0.6 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.871 0.698 0.941
Jun-10 14.3 15% 158.0 126.6 4.7 0.4 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.465 0.655 0.795
5 50
Sep-10 15.2 15% 162.7 129.8 4.7 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.772 0.582 0.912
Dec-10 34.7 15% 172.9 137.1 10.2 0.9 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.949 0.654 0.991
Mar-11 19.5 16% 180.00 140.9 7.1 0.6 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 3.446 0.804 1.092 0
Jun-11 16.9 16% 185.6 D J D144.1
J D J 5.6 D J D0.5 J D 2.7J D0.175
J D J16.0D J 22.5
D J 2.920
D J D0.765
J D 0.950
J D
Sep-11 17.5 16% 190.9 e u e147.4
u e u5.3 e u e 0.8u e 2.7u e0.175
u e u16.0e u 22.5
e u 3.184
e u e0.694
u e 1.070
u e
Dec-11 39.6 16% 202.2 c n c155.1
n c 11.3
l c n c 1.0 n c 2.7n c0.175
n c n16.0c n 22.5
c n 6.815
c n c0.771
n c 1.155
n c
Mar-12 23.7 17% 210.9 159.6 8.7 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.180 0.928 1.265
Jun-12 20.2 17% 217.7 iPod 163.2inst 6.8
base 0.6 2.7 0.175 16.0
iPod switch 22.5usrs
New iPod 3.498 Switch
0.894 1.131
CPU
Sep-12 20.5 17% 224.0 167.0 6.3 0.9
base 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 3.698 units 0.827 1.257
Dec-12 45.6 18% 237.1 175.4 13.1 1.1 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 7.859 0.910 1.352
Mar-13 28.9 18% 247.9 181.0 10.8 0.8 2.7Music0.175 $$16.0 22.5 5.103 1.076 1.474
Jun-13 24.3 18% 50 256.4 185.4 8.5 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.225 1.048 1.348 .500
Sep-13 24.1 18% 264.0 189.7 7.6 1.0 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.336 0.987 1.482
Dec-13 52.8 18% 40 279.4 199.3 15.4 1.2 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 9.116 1.080 1.590 .400
30
Mar-14 35.5 19% 292.8 206.2 13.4 1.0 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 6.254 1.256 1.726 .300
Jun-14 29.5 19% 20 303.4 211.6 10.5 0.8 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.133 1.236 1.612 .200
Sep-14 28.6 19% 10 312.7 216.7 9.3 1.2 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.130 1.182 1.756 .100
Dec-14 61.4 19% 331.1 227.8 18.4 1.4 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 10.627 1.286 1.880
0 .000
Mar-15 43.7 19% 347.7 236.2 16.6 1.1 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 7.678 1.475 2.035
Jun-15 36.0 20% 360.8 D J D242.8
J D J13.1 D J D 1.0J D 2.7J D0.175
J D J16.0
D J 22.5
D J D6.265
J D 1.466
J D J1.936
D
Sep-15 34.3 20% 372.4 e u e u e u
248.9 11.6 e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
1.3 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 6.118 1.420 2.092u e u e
Dec-15 71.8 20% 394.4 c n c n c l
261.9 22.0 c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n
1.5 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 12.445 1.540 2.237 c n c
Assumptions/definitions
Halo effect starts in F04 CPUs from F03 PC iPods
Switch CPU units = CPUs beyond industry growth
Halo% = ttm switch CPU units / iPod switch base