Download as xls, pdf, or txt
Download as xls, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 24

US Web order daily rates (fwd 30 dma)

Datetime (PST) Order# days orders rate


12/26/2003 00:00 6912 35.00 375 10.71 24.0
01/16/2004 00:00 7143 14.00 144 10.29 21.0
01/27/2004 00:00 7248 35.00 335 9.57 11.0
01/30/2004 00:00 7287 32.00 296 9.25 3.0
03/02/2004 00:00 7583 7.00 59 8.43 32.0
03/09/2004 00:00 7642 41.00 347 8.46 7.0
04/19/2004 00:00 7989 49.00 425 8.67 41.0
06/07/2004 00:00 8414 33.00 311 9.42 49.0
06/12/2004 00:00 8472 28.00 253 9.04 5.0
07/10/2004 00:00 8725 52.00 530 10.19 28.0
08/31/2004 00:00 9255 57.00 564 9.89 52.0
10/27/2004 00:00 9819 30.00 353 11.77 57.0
11/26/2004 00:00 10172 30.00 707 23.57 30.0
12/09/2004 00:00 10459 27.00 564 20.89 13.0
12/26/2004 00:00 10879 28.00 436 15.57 17.0
01/05/2005 00:00 11023 33.00 413 12.52 10.0
01/23/2005 00:00 11315 34.00 530 15.59 18.0
02/07/2005 00:00 11436 35.00 663 18.94 15.0
02/26/2005 00:00 11845 31.00 454 14.65 19.0
03/02/2005 00:00 11925 33.00 442 13.39 4.0
03/14/2005 00:00 12099 32.00 459 14.34 12.0
03/29/2005 00:00 12299 31.00 475 15.32 15.0
04/04/2005 00:00 12367 30.00 539 17.97 6.0
04/10/2005 00:00 12437 31.00 581 18.74 6.0
04/15/2005 00:00 12558 26.00 460 17.69 5.0
04/25/2005 00:00 12699 16.00 319 19.94 10.0
04/29/2005 00:00 12774 34.00 574 16.88 4.0
05/04/2005 00:00 12906 29.00 442 15.24 5.0
05/11/2005 00:00 13018 34.00 507 14.91 7.0
06/02/2005 00:00 13348 26.00 368 14.15 22.0
06/14/2005 00:00 13525 35.00 469 13.40 12.0
06/28/2005 00:00 13716 34.00 447 13.15 14.0
07/13/2005 00:00 13909 34.00 475 13.97 15.0
07/19/2005 00:00 13994 32.00 453 14.16 6.0
08/01/2005 00:00 14163 28.00 391 13.96 13.0
08/07/2005 00:00 14256 31.48 412 13.09 6.0
08/16/2005 00:00 14384 34.75 564 16.22 9.0
08/20/2005 00:00 14447 30.75 501 16.28 4.0
08/24/2005 06:42 14494 31.72 563 17.74 4.3
08/29/2005 00:00 14554 31.57 584 18.51 4.7
09/07/2005 11:25 14668 28.88 577 19.97 9.5
09/13/2005 21:00 14827 30.53 569 18.64 6.4
09/19/2005 18:03 14948 31.62 599 18.96 5.9
09/24/2005 23:58 15057 32.61 614 18.84 5.2
09/29/2005 13:43 15138 28.03 533 19.01 4.6
10/06/2005 08:32 15245 28.34 556 19.61 6.8
10/14/2005 09:40 15396 28.02 557 19.89 8.0
10/21/2005 09:00 15547 28.11 569 20.23 7.0
10/27/2005 14:30 15671 32.74 854 26.10 6.2
11/03/2005 16:42 15800 28.79 899 31.23 7.1
11/11/2005 10:02 15953 34.18 1756 51.39 7.7
11/18/2005 11:41 16116 27.11 1594 58.79 7.1
11/25/2005 12:07 16338 28.46 1898 66.69 7.0
11/29/2005 08:10 16525 32.36 1964 60.70 3.8
12/02/2005 11:40 16700 29.21 1790 61.27 3.1
12/09/2005 15:19 17198 33.84 1580 46.68 7.2
12/15/2005 14:15 17710 34.64 1219 35.20 6.0
12/23/2005 23:08 18236 32.51 815 25.07 8.4
12/31/2005 16:42 18489 30.65 667 21.77 7.7
01/06/2006 11:48 18621 32.08 677 21.11 5.8
01/12/2006 11:26 18778 33.82 678 20.05 6.0
01/19/2006 05:30 18929 27.07 528 19.49 6.8
01/25/2006 11:17 19050 28.87 547 18.95 6.2
01/31/2006 08:18 19156 30.11 567 18.84 5.9
02/07/2006 13:42 19298 31.18 565 18.11 7.2
02/15/2006 07:08 19456 30.39 510 16.79 7.7
02/23/2006 08:05 19597 29.02 464 15.98 8.0
03/02/2006 10:53 19724 30.43 458 15.06 7.1
03/10/2006 18:05 19863 34.85 502 14.41 8.3
03/17/2006 16:28 19966 33.61 474 14.11 6.9
03/24/2006 08:30 20061 32.98 479 14.52 6.7
04/01/2006 21:08 20182 30.71 431 14.05 8.5
04/07/2006 23:50 20273 31.70 444 14.01 6.1
04/14/2006 14:29 20365 31.86 458 14.37 6.6
04/20/2006 07:00 20441 33.52 512 15.29 5.7
04/26/2006 08:00 20540 27.48 413 15.03 6.0
05/02/2006 14:10 20613 30.04 472 15.73 6.3
05/09/2006 16:45 20717 30.01 489 16.31 7.1
05/16/2006 11:02 20823 30.86 511 16.57 6.8
05/23/2006 19:35 20953 31.35 509 16.24 7.4
06/01/2006 15:01 21086 30.36 491 16.18 8.8
06/08/2006 16:54 21206 29.02 453 15.61 7.1
06/16/2006 07:38 21334 34.02 513 15.08 7.6
06/24/2006 04:00 21462 33.24 500 15.04 7.8
07/01/2006 23:45 21577 31.45 479 15.22 7.8
07/07/2006 17:25 21659 31.82 499 15.69 5.7
07/14/2006 04:35 21753 32.91 556 16.90 6.5
Web order daily rate (fwd
07/20/2006 08:05 21847 34.53 604 17.49 6.1
07/27/2006 09:46 21962 27.46 488 17.79 7.1 70
65
08/02/2006 10:30 22056 29.30 527 18.00 6.0
60
08/08/2006 13:00 22158 30.78 540 17.56 6.1 55
08/16/2006 02:19 22309 30.06 548 18.23 7.6 50
08/23/2006 20:45 22451 30.73 597 19.41 7.8 45
08/31/2006 17:35 22583 30.67 608 19.83 7.9 40
09/08/2006 07:48 22699 29.30 611 20.84 7.6 35
09/15/2006 03:44 22857 28.76 565 19.65 6.8 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1000001100000000000000011111110
2134681212344456788899900112221
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
09/23/2006 14:20 23047 34.64 639 18.45 8.4 20
10/01/2006 09:40 23191 26.83 495 18.45 7.8 15
10/07/2006 15:06 23310 30.66 582 18.98 6.2 10
10/13/2006 22:05 23423 33.85 701 20.70 6.3 5
10/20/2006 06:45 23536 27.49 587 21.36 6.4 0
10/28/2006 05:40 23686 34.70 1033 29.76 8.0 1000001100000000000000011111110
2134681212344456788899900112221
11/07/2006 06:57 23892 31.92 1210 37.92 10.1
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
11/16/2006 18:30 24124 29.06 1429 49.16 9.5
11/25/2006 02:18 24423 34.99 1650 47.17 8.3
r
12/01/2006 22:35 24719 28.15 1354 48.11 6.8
12/09/2006 05:05 25102 34.76 1262 36.30 7.3 Short term forecasting (next 2 months)
12/15/2006 20:00 25552 34.93 940 26.91 6.6 Datetime (PST) ord# yr ago days orders
12/23/2006 08:35 25885 27.41 607 22.14 7.5 12/23/2006 08:35 25885 18211
12/30/2006 02:05 26073 28.90 575 19.90 6.7 12/31/2006 00:01 26089 18479 7.64 204
01/06/2007 11:00 26210 28.30 596 21.05 7.4 01/06/2007 11:00 26214 18620 6.46 125
01/12/2007 23:15 26364 29.14 611 20.96 6.5 01/12/2007 23:15 26364 18790 6.51 150
01/19/2007 18:20 26492 29.22 623 21.31 6.8 01/19/2007 18:20 26492 18940 6.80 128
01/27/2007 23:45 26648 34.96 709 20.28 8.2 01/27/2007 23:45 26648 19096 8.23 156
02/03/2007 18:10 26806 28.19 552 19.57 6.8 02/03/2007 18:10 26806 19221 6.77 157
02/11/2007 02:37 26974 34.96 623 17.82 7.4 02/11/2007 02:37 26974 19372 7.35 169
02/17/2007 23:41 27115 28.08 482 17.18 6.9 02/17/2007 23:41 27115 19506 6.88 141
02/25/2007 01:20 27234 34.95 597 17.07 7.1 02/25/2007 01:20 27236 19629 7.07 121
03/03/2007 22:40 27357 28.06 473 16.87 6.9 03/03/2007 22:40 27357 19750 6.89 121
03/11/2007 11:36 27484 32.19 537 16.67 7.5 03/11/2007 11:36 27484 19874 7.54 127
03/18/2007 01:34 27597 34.94 582 16.67 6.6 03/18/2007 01:34 27597 19972 6.58 113
03/25/2007 03:15 27718 27.87 462 16.58 7.1 03/25/2007 03:15 27718 20072 7.07 120
04/01/2007 00:10 27831 30.33 506 16.70 6.9 04/01/2007 00:10 27831 20169 6.87 113
04/12/2007 16:05 28021 33.83 583 17.24 11.7 04/12/2007 16:05 28021 20339 11.66 190
04/17/2007 08:03 28099 29.16 505 17.31 4.7 04/17/2007 08:03 28099 20400 4.67 78
04/22/2007 00:02 28180 24.50 424 17.33 4.7 04/22/2007 00:02 28180 20470 4.67 81
05/01/2007 08:00 28337 30.33 558 18.40 9.3 05/01/2007 08:00 28337 20599 9.33 158
05/16/2007 12:00 28604 15.17 291 19.20 15.2 05/16/2007 12:00 28604 20823 15.17 267
05/31/2007 16:00 28895 31.09 6.6 05/31/2007 16:00 28895 21072 15.17 291

Short term forecasting (next 2


38
35
33
30
28
25
23
20
18
15
13
31-Dec 7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-

rate yr ago
20
18
15
13
31-Dec 7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-

rate yr ago
Web order daily rate (fwd 30 dma) and regressions

0 000 001 11 111 10 000 00 000 00 000000 00 111 11 100 00 000 00


8 889 990 01 122 21 122 33 445 56 677788 99 001 12 211 22 334 45
0 000 001 11 111 10 000 00 000 00 000000 00 111 11 100 00 000 00
8 889 990 01 122 21 122 33 445 56 677788 99 001 12 211 22 334 45
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

rate

ng (next 2 months)
% rel rate yr ago events

-24.1% 26.63 35.08 EoQ interp 4/12 28021 16.70 26.3 -37%
-11.4% 19.32 21.81 interp 4/1 27831 16.95 26.1 -35%
-12.1% 23.04 26.19 MWSF project 5/16 28616 18.40 27.2 -32%
-14.1% 18.91 22.02
0.4% 19.00 18.93 shuffle
25.5% 23.25 18.53
11.4% 22.92 20.57
5.3% 20.44 19.41
-1.2% 17.15 17.36
-0.4% 17.61 17.67
2.2% 16.84 16.47
16.0% 17.17 14.80 iTV shp
20.4% 17.04 14.16
16.1% 16.45 14.17 EoQ
12.0% 16.30 14.55 8x PM
29.4% 16.78 12.97 2.00 (interpolation)
14.5% 17.25 15.07 1.95 (interpolation)
21.6% 16.88 13.89 16.70 (current trend and planned events)
19.2% 17.60 14.77 2.05 (interpolation)
17.4% 19.20 16.36 18.40 (long-term trends and seasonality)

term forecasting (next 2 months)

r 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun

yr ago events
r 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 6-May 13-May 20-May 27-May 3-Jun

yr ago events
May 27-May 3-Jun
May 27-May 3-Jun
Monthly interpolation / projections / adjustments
Month est Ord# est rate rate regr %diff avg adj acc adj err
Dec-03 6934 12.3 8.5 44% 17% -185% 40%
Jan-04 7252 10.5 9.1 15% 12% -169% 6%
Feb-04 7542 9.6 9.4 1% -7% -168% 13%
Mar-04 7801 8.5 9.9 -14% -12% -182% -3%
Apr-04 8060 8.5 10.1 -16% -12% -198% -7%
May-04 8323 8.7 10.7 -19% -15% -217% -7%
Jun-04 8607 9.4 11.1 -15% -13% -232% -3%
Jul-04 8898 9.6 11.3 -15% -11% -247% -7%
Aug-04 9210 10.3 11.5 -10% -3% -258% -12%
Sep-04 9508 9.8 11.6 -15% -4% -273% -19%
Oct-04 9812 10.0 12.1 -17% -9% -290% -14%
Nov-04 10168 11.7 12.5 -6% 10% -296% -28%
Dec-04 10879 23.4 13.9 69% 35% -227% 52%
Jan-05 11334 15.0 15.0 0% 7% -227% -12%
Feb-05 11816 15.9 15.5 3% -3% -225% 9%
Mar-05 12272 15.0 15.7 -4% -9% -229% 8%
Apr-05 12724 14.9 15.9 -6% -10% -235% 6%
May-05 13252 17.4 15.9 9% -7% -226% 24%
Jun-05 13689 14.4 16.2 -11% -13% -237% 2%
Jul-05 14089 13.2 16.5 -20% -15% -257% -9%
Aug-05 14512 13.9 16.7 -16% -9% -273% -13%
Sep-05 15057 18.0 16.9 6% 0% -267% 10%
Oct-05 15672 18.8 17.3 9% -2% -258% 18%
Nov-05 16525 26.1 17.7 48% 23% -210% 38%
Dec-05 18496 60.3 18.5 225% 89% 15% 191%
Jan-06 19156 21.8 19.2 14% 9% 28% 7%
Feb-06 19727 18.8 19.5 -3% -3% 25% 0% Monthly interpolation / projection / adjustments Seasonality
Mar-06 20184 15.0 19.6 -23% -15% 2% -14% 80 160% 100%
Apr-06 20610 14.1 19.5 -28% -17% -26% -18% 90%
70
May-06 21086 15.7 19.5 -20% -12% -45% -13% 80%
60 120%
Jun-06 21577 16.2 19.7 -18% -15% -64% -5% 70%
Jul-06 22039 15.2 20.0 -24% -18% -87% -9% 50 60%
Aug-06 22582 17.9 20.1 -11% -9% -98% -3% 40 80% 50%
Sep-06 23184 19.8 20.3 -2% -1% -101% -2% 30 40%
Oct-06 23749 18.6 20.4 -9% -5% -109% -6% 20 40% 30%
Nov-06 24664 30.1 20.5 47% 32% -62% 24% 10 20%
Dec-06 26090 47.0 20.5 129% 103% 67% 40% 10%
0 0% 0%
Jan-07 26703 20.2 20.8 -3% 5% 64% -12% -10
-10%
Feb-07 27317 20.2 20.8 -3% -3% 61% 1% -20 -40% -20%
Mar-07 27831 16.9 20.9 -19% -16% 43% -4%
D F A J AO D F A J AO D F A J A O D F A J A OD F A J AO DF D F A JJ S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J
Apr-07 28337 16.7 20.7 -19% -18% 23% -2% e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e e e p uu e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a
May-07 28895 18.4 20.6 -11% -11% 13% 1% c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b c b r- nl p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n
Jun-07 29456 18.5 20.5 -10% -13% 3% 5%
Jul-07 30119 21.9 23.8 -8% -15% -5% 10% est rate rate regr %diff Column G Column I
Aug-07 30779 21.7 24.0 -9% -9% -15% 0%
Sep-07 31505 23.9 24.2 -1% -1% -16% 0% Quarterly orders and revenue Stock valuation
Oct-07 32236 24.1 24.5 -2% -4% -17% 3% 12000 100 200
Nov-07 33368 37.3 24.9 50% 38% 32% 18%
Dec-07 34990 53.5 26.3 103% 103% 136% 0% 10000
Jan-08 35899 30.0 28.6 5% 5% 140% 0% 75 150
Feb-08 36762 28.5 29.3 -3% -3% 137% 0% 8000
Mar-08 37520 25.0 29.8 -16% -16% 121% 0%
Apr-08 38267 24.6 30.0 -18% -18% 103% 0% 6000 50 100

pe
May-08 39074 26.6 30.0 -11% -11% 92% 0%
Jun-08 39875 26.4 30.3 -13% -13% 79% 0% 4000
Jul-08 40667 26.1 30.5 -15% -15% 64% 0% 25 50
Aug-08 41509 27.8 30.7 -9% -9% 55% 0% 2000
Sep-08 42440 30.7 31.0 -1% -1% 54% 0%
Oct-08 43361 30.4 31.5 -4% -4% 50% 0% 0 - 0
Nov-08 44705 44.3 32.0 38% 38% 89% 0%
De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
Dec-08 46760 67.8 33.4 103% 103% 192% 0% c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar
Jan-09 47896 37.4 35.8 5% 5% 196% 0% 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 - - 04 - - - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - -
Feb-09 48973 35.5 36.6 -3% -3% 193% 0%
Mar-09 49920 31.2 37.3 -16% -16% 177% 0% orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc

Quarterly / financials
Quarter orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo rev grw opex dev g mrgn op ex cash st inv int int rate tax tax rate sh cnt eps ttm pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc 1q grw 1y grw cash/sh 1y rtrn mkt cap
Dec-03 901 2006 2227 865 1930 2231 36% 2.6% 26.7% 462 3724 1067 9 1.7% 23 27.8% 745 0.08 0.17 10.69 64.13 16.41 25.55 6.54 412% 35% 6.43 49% 7.96
Mar-04 867 1909 2201 934 2121 2272 29% 1.8% 27.8% 468 3158 1436 12 1.4% 18 24.3% 756 0.07 0.22 13.52 61.62 14.76 33.94 8.13 247% 143% 6.07 91% 10.23
Jun-04 806 2014 2500 1007 2332 2315 30% 1.7% 27.8% 479 3120 1846 13 1.3% 24 25.8% 785 0.09 0.28 16.27 57.85 13.56 35.36 8.29 237% 287% 6.32 71% 12.78
Sep-04 902 2350 2607 1087 2563 2358 37% 3.1% 27.0% 501 2969 2495 19 1.6% 41 27.0% 806 0.14 0.38 19.38 51.05 13.47 33.19 8.76 250% 271% 6.78 87% 15.62
Dec-04 1371 3490 2546 1173 2817 2402 74% 3.8% 28.5% 593 2475 3973 26 2.4% 134 31.2% 838 0.35 0.65 32.20 49.42 18.58 37.61 14.14 340% 291% 7.69 201% 26.99
Mar-05 1393 3243 2328 1265 3096 2447 70% 1.6% 29.8% 566 2254 4803 33 3.4% 145 33.3% 857.01 0.34 0.92 41.67 45.49 22.39 36.50 17.97 357% 317% 8.23 208% 35.71
Jun-05 1416 3520 2485 1365 3403 2492 75% 1.0% 29.7% 617 3094 4432 46 4.6% 153 32.3% 861 0.37 1.20 36.81 30.68 18.15 23.39 13.84 323% 327% 8.74 126% 31.68
Sep-05 1368 3678 2688 1473 3740 2538 57% -0.2% 28.1% 617 3491 4770 60 5.8% 152 31.8% 866 0.38 1.44 53.61 37.27 24.25 30.64 19.94 173% 279% 9.53 177% 46.45
Dec-05 3439 5749 1672 1599 4140 2589 65% 0.8% 27.2% 814 4150 4557 81 6.8% 266 32.0% 874 0.65 1.73 71.89 41.49 26.62 35.74 22.93 84% 166% 9.96 123% 62.85
Mar-06 1688 4359 2583 1725 4551 2638 34% 4.0% 29.8% 768 6346 1880 76 6.2% 195 32.2% 879 0.47 1.86 62.72 33.70 21.63 28.67 18.40 38% 103% 9.36 51% 55.10
Jun-06 1393 4370 3136 1862 5002 2687 24% 2.7% 30.3% 759 8013 1163 95 5.7% 189 28.6% 876 0.54 2.03 57.27 28.24 18.77 23.08 15.33 45% 69% 10.47 56% 50.19
Sep-06 1607 4837 3011 2009 5497 2737 32% 4.5% 29.2% 803 6392 3718 113 5.9% 231 32.0% 879 0.56 2.21 74.22 33.58 22.69 28.37 19.17 48% 54% 11.50 38% 65.22
Dec-06 2906 7115 2448 2167 6042 2788 7115 24% 3.3% 31.2% 898 7159 4710 126 5.9% 444 30.7% 883 1.14 2.70 84.84 31.41 23.67 26.44 19.92 76% 56% 13.44 18% 74.94
Mar-07 1740 5249 3016 2339 6641 2840 5235 20% -3.0% 30.5% 853 7320 4946 121 6.3% 278 32.0% 888 0.67 2.90 92.91 32.05 23.52 27.29 20.02 43% 56% 13.80 48% 82.55
Jun-07 1625 5200 3200 2523 7299 2893 5211 19% -2.4% 31.0% 841 7864 5193 136 6.9% 290 32.0% 892 0.69 3.05 105.37 34.53 25.00 29.73 21.53 28% 50% 14.63 84% 94.01
Sep-07 2049 6454 3150 2723 8022 2946 6451 33% -1.0% 29.5% 1015 8663 5452 137 6.7% 328 32.0% 896 0.78 3.27 114.13 34.89 25.00 30.07 21.55 39% 48% 15.76 54% 102.26
Dec-07 3485 9410 2700 2938 8817 3001 9510 32% 3.0% 30.0% 1058 10301 5725 153 6.4% 614 32.0% 900 1.45 3.58 122.27 34.11 25.00 29.14 21.36 28% 33% 17.81 44% 110.01
Mar-08 2530 7040 2782 3170 9691 3057 6970 34% 1.0% 30.0% 885 10484 6011 144 6.1% 439 32.0% 903 1.03 3.95 127.87 32.36 25.00 27.74 21.43 55% 36% 18.26 38% 115.52
Jun-08 2355 6381 2709 3420 10651 3114 6298 23% -2.5% 30.0% 812 10925 6312 172 6.0% 408 32.0% 907 0.96 4.21 134.05 31.81 25.00 27.30 21.46 38% 38% 19.00 27% 121.61
Sep-08 2564 8135 3172 3690 11707 3172 8155 26% -6.0% 30.0% 1112 11833 6627 184 6.0% 484 32.0% 911 1.13 4.57 142.01 31.11 25.00 26.67 21.43 45% 40% 20.26 24% 129.38
Dec-08 4321 11774 2725 3982 12867 3231 11761 25% -3.0% 30.0% 1346 13572 6959 202 6.0% 764 32.0% 915 1.78 4.89 148.74 30.41 25.00 25.82 21.23 22% 36% 22.44 22% 136.08
Mar-09 3159 8631 2732 4297 14142 3291 8646 23% -1.0% 29.0% 1001 13858 7307 194 6.0% 543 32.0% 919 1.26 5.11 157.82 30.86 25.00 26.35 21.35 22% 29% 23.04 23% 144.98
Jun-09 2826 7675 2716 4636 15543 3353 7663 20% 0.0% 29.0% 821 14563 7672 227 6.0% 522 32.0% 922 1.20 5.36 160.86 30.00 25.00 25.50 21.25 26% 27% 24.10 20% 148.39
Sep-09 3077 10089 3279 5002 17083 3415 10170 24% 0.0% 29.0% 1200 15920 8056 246 6.0% 631 32.0% 926 1.45 5.68 170.41 30.00 25.00 25.44 21.20 28% 24% 25.88 20% 157.86
Dec-09 5185 14388 2775 5397 18776 3479 14412 22% 0.0% 29.0% 1645 18047 8458 269 6.0% 895 32.0% 930 2.04 5.95 178.49 30.00 25.00 25.21 21.01 15% 22% 28.49 20% 166.04
Mar-10 3791 10748 2835 5824 20637 3544 10701 25% 0.0% 28.5% 1107 18699 8881 267 6.0% 711 32.0% 934 1.62 6.31 189.39 30.00 25.00 25.32 21.10 29% 23% 29.53 20% 176.91
6.43 20%
0.6652 6.82 90.35 3% 20%
24018 3.2715 7.14 113.23 35% 20%
4.53 7.58 25% 20%
4/1 4/14 4/20 5/2 5/9 5/23 6/1 6/16 7/1 7/14 7/20 8/2 8/16 10/1 10/13 10/20 11/7
F06Q1
F06Q2 .50 .50 .50
F06Q3 .57 .57 .54 .52 .45 .44 .44 .44 .44 .44 .54
F06Q4 .60 .60 .65 .66 .64 .63 .59 .55 .55 .55 .55 .56 .56 .57 .57 .56
F07Q1 .84 .85 .83 .83 .80 .79 .85 .88 .89 .89 .89 .89 .90 .90 .90 .91 .91
F07Q2 .89 .89 .86 .86 .83 .82 .80 .81 .79 .78 .76 .77 .77 .77 .76
F07Q3 .72 .71 .74 .75 .75 .75 .74
F07Q4 .76 .74
F08Q1
F08Q2
fwd12m 2.51 2.51 2.91 2.89 2.75 2.72 2.70 2.70 2.68 2.68 2.95 2.94 2.96 2.99 2.98 3.17 3.15
actual 2.73 2.90 3.05
diff -8% -8% -2%

1.50

1.25

1.00

.75

.50

.25
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 De

F06Q1 F06Q2 F06Q3 F06Q4 F07Q1 F07Q2 F07Q3


12/15 12/30 1/12 1/19 1/27 2/11 2/25 3/11 4/1 4/12

.93 .92 .92 1.14


.76 .74 .67 .65 .66 .66 .66 .66 .67 .67
.75 .74 .74 .75 .74 .74 .74 .74 .73 .69
.75 .75 .76 .81 .81 .81 .81 .82 .82 .78
1.39 1.40 1.41 1.39 1.39 1.41 1.45

3.18 3.14 3.08 3.60 3.61 3.62 3.60 3.61 3.63 3.58
3.27
-6%

3.75

3.5

3.25

2.75

2.5
Dec-06 Apr-07 Jul-07

Q1 F07Q2 F07Q3 F07Q4 F08Q1 F08Q2 fwd12m


3.75

3.5

3.25

2.75

2.5
l-07
iPod iPod iPod New Switch iPod accs iTMS iPod
iPod unit inst switch iPod CPU life iPod /user /user iPod accs iTMS
Date units grw base base usrs units cycl AUP /year /year rev rev rev
Dec-03 0.7 170% 1.8 0.4 0.6 1.9 0.357 37.5 29.1 0.256 0.028 0.019
Mar-04 0.8 320% 2.5 0.7 0.7 2.5 0.345 47.1 37.5 0.264 0.033 0.027
Jun-04 0.9 268% 3.2 1.0 0.7 2.2 0.325 47.9 42.0 0.249 0.036 0.037
Sep-04 2.0 370% 5.0 2.1 1.8 2.4 0.296 47.2 41.5 0.537 0.051 0.047
Dec-04 4.6 469% 9.3 5.0 4.2 0.1 2.3 0.274 43.2 38.4 1.211 0.096 0.081
Mar-05 5.3 486% 14.2 8.4 5.0 0.2 2.4 0.236 34.3 36.8 1.014 0.089 0.127
Jun-05 6.2 560% 19.9 12.6 5.7 0.1 2.6 0.214 28.7 31.8 1.103 0.111 0.130
Sep-05 6.5 409% 25.5 17.0 5.6 0.3 2.8 0.202 24.6 27.7 1.212 0.127 0.138
Dec-05 14.0 287% 37.5 27.3 12.1 0.0 2.6 0.195 24.0 26.0 2.906 0.256 0.235
Apr-06 8.5 176% 43.9 32.9 6.4 -0.1 2.6 0.197 23.2 23.6 1.714 0.240 0.245
Jul-06 8.1 106% 49.5 38.2 5.6 0.0 2.6 0.197 21.1 22.3 1.497 0.202 0.255
Sep-06 8.7 75% 55.3 43.6 5.8 0.3 2.9 0.195 18.3 22.2 1.559 0.152 0.300
Dec-06 21.1 45% 70.0 57.3 14.7 0.3 2.5 0.177 15.3 21.8 3.427 0.242 0.392
Mar-07 10.5 38% 75.9 62.5 5.9 0.3 2.7 0.167 15.7 22.5 1.601 0.388 0.463
Jun-07 9.5 34% 80.9 66.9 5.0 0.1 2.7 0.165 16.0 21.5 1.629 0.346 0.361
Sep-07 10.5 31% 86.4 71.8 5.5 0.4 2.8 0.167 16.0 21.7 1.954 0.276 0.483
Dec-07 24.5 18% 98.9 83.1 12.6 0.6 2.6 0.170 16.0 22.0 4.165 0.358 0.575
Mar-08 11.8 16% 104.0 86.9 5.1 0.4 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.107 0.501 0.664
Jun-08 10.7 15% 108.4 90.4 4.4 0.2 2.7 iPod market
0.175 16.0 22.5 1.837 0.456 0.516
Sep-08 11.8 14% 20 113.2 94.3 4.7 0.6 2.8 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.174 0.383 0.633 200
Dec-08 27.2 12% 123.6 103.0 10.4 0.7 2.6 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.646 0.456 0.713
Mar-09 13.7 13% 128.8 106.4 5.2 0.5 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.432 0.600 0.804
15 150
Jun-09 12.2 13% 133.1 109.4 4.3 0.3 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.110 0.555 0.655
Sep-09 13.3 13% 137.6 112.8 4.5 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.441 0.481 0.771
Dec-09 30.6 13% 10 147.4 120.3 9.8 0.8 2.6 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.234 0.552 0.847 100
Mar-10 16.2 14% 153.3 123.7 5.9 0.6 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.871 0.698 0.941
Jun-10 14.3 15% 158.0 126.6 4.7 0.4 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.465 0.655 0.795
5 50
Sep-10 15.2 15% 162.7 129.8 4.7 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 2.772 0.582 0.912
Dec-10 34.7 15% 172.9 137.1 10.2 0.9 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.949 0.654 0.991
Mar-11 19.5 16% 180.00 140.9 7.1 0.6 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 3.446 0.804 1.092 0
Jun-11 16.9 16% 185.6 D J D144.1
J D J 5.6 D J D0.5 J D 2.7J D0.175
J D J16.0D J 22.5
D J 2.920
D J D0.765
J D 0.950
J D
Sep-11 17.5 16% 190.9 e u e147.4
u e u5.3 e u e 0.8u e 2.7u e0.175
u e u16.0e u 22.5
e u 3.184
e u e0.694
u e 1.070
u e
Dec-11 39.6 16% 202.2 c n c155.1
n c 11.3
l c n c 1.0 n c 2.7n c0.175
n c n16.0c n 22.5
c n 6.815
c n c0.771
n c 1.155
n c
Mar-12 23.7 17% 210.9 159.6 8.7 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.180 0.928 1.265
Jun-12 20.2 17% 217.7 iPod 163.2inst 6.8
base 0.6 2.7 0.175 16.0
iPod switch 22.5usrs
New iPod 3.498 Switch
0.894 1.131
CPU
Sep-12 20.5 17% 224.0 167.0 6.3 0.9
base 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 3.698 units 0.827 1.257
Dec-12 45.6 18% 237.1 175.4 13.1 1.1 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 7.859 0.910 1.352
Mar-13 28.9 18% 247.9 181.0 10.8 0.8 2.7Music0.175 $$16.0 22.5 5.103 1.076 1.474
Jun-13 24.3 18% 50 256.4 185.4 8.5 0.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.225 1.048 1.348 .500
Sep-13 24.1 18% 264.0 189.7 7.6 1.0 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 4.336 0.987 1.482
Dec-13 52.8 18% 40 279.4 199.3 15.4 1.2 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 9.116 1.080 1.590 .400
30
Mar-14 35.5 19% 292.8 206.2 13.4 1.0 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 6.254 1.256 1.726 .300
Jun-14 29.5 19% 20 303.4 211.6 10.5 0.8 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.133 1.236 1.612 .200
Sep-14 28.6 19% 10 312.7 216.7 9.3 1.2 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 5.130 1.182 1.756 .100
Dec-14 61.4 19% 331.1 227.8 18.4 1.4 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 10.627 1.286 1.880
0 .000
Mar-15 43.7 19% 347.7 236.2 16.6 1.1 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 7.678 1.475 2.035
Jun-15 36.0 20% 360.8 D J D242.8
J D J13.1 D J D 1.0J D 2.7J D0.175
J D J16.0
D J 22.5
D J D6.265
J D 1.466
J D J1.936
D
Sep-15 34.3 20% 372.4 e u e u e u
248.9 11.6 e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
1.3 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 6.118 1.420 2.092u e u e
Dec-15 71.8 20% 394.4 c n c n c l
261.9 22.0 c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n
1.5 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 12.445 1.540 2.237 c n c

iPod AUP accs /user /year iTMS /user


/year
10 .100
0 .000
D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D
e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c
Mar-16 53.7 20% 415.0 272.2 20.6 1.3 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 9.434 1.744 2.413
iPod AUP accs /user /year iTMS /user
Jun-16 44.0 20% 431.3 280.3 16.4 1.2 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 7.672 1.748 2.332
/year
Sep-16 41.3 20% 445.7 287.6 14.4 1.5 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 7.350 1.714 2.504
Dec-16 84.3 20% 472.1 302.8 26.4 1.7 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 14.637 1.851 2.674
Mar-17 66.1 20% 497.6 315.4 25.4 1.5 2.7 0.175 16.0 22.5 11.597 2.075 2.878
iTMS Mac PC Mac Mac Mac New Mac Mac prfls SW
+accs Mac unit PC CPU inst iPod Market 1y halo to life CPU /usr /usr
rev units grw CPUs grw base inst bs share % Mac cycl AUP /yr /yr
0.047 0.83 0% 43.3 15% 15.2 1.4 2.1% 0.1 5.0 1.505 52.0 46.5
0.060 0.75 5% 40.1 18% 15.2 1.8 2.0% 0.0 5.0 1.506 55.3 48.2
0.073 0.88 10% 40.0 18% 15.3 2.2 2.0% 0.1 5.0 1.509 58.5 51.2
0.098 0.84 9% 44.6 12% 15.4 3.0 2.0% 0.0 5.0 1.496 62.2 53.8
0.177 1.05 13% 48.9 13% 15.7 4.3 2.0% 5.0% 0.3 5.0 1.500 65.7 53.4
0.216 1.07 22% 45.2 13% 16.0 5.8 2.1% 8.1% 0.4 5.0 1.461 67.5 56.1
0.241 1.18 28% 47.3 18% 16.4 7.3 2.2% 6.8% 0.4 5.0 1.426 69.3 63.6
0.265 1.24 38% 52.3 17% 16.9 8.5 2.3% 6.8% 0.4 5.1 1.384 69.3 67.1
0.491 1.25 35% 56.6 16% 17.3 10.3 2.4% 4.1% 0.5 5.1 1.348 68.7 72.2
0.485 1.11 25% 50.9 13% 17.6 11.0 2.3% 1.6% 0.3 5.1 1.353 66.2 75.5
0.457 1.33 19% 52.0 10% 18.1 11.3 2.3% 0.8% 0.5 5.1 1.374 62.9 71.9
0.452 1.61 17% 56.5 8% 18.8 11.8 2.5% 0.7% 0.7 5.1 1.391 61.2 71.2
0.634 1.61 19% 61.1 8% 19.5 12.7 2.6% 1.1% 0.7 5.0 1.425 59.0 70.2
0.851 1.45 25% 55.0 8% 20.1 13.4 2.7% 1.6% 0.6 5.1 1.445 58.0 68.0
0.707 1.52 26% 56.2 8% 20.7 14.0 2.7% 1.5% 0.6 5.1 1.455 61.0 67.0
0.759 2.18 28% 61.0 8% 21.9 14.5 2.9% 1.6% 1.2 5.1 1.450 62.0 66.6
0.933 2.37 33% 66.0 8% 23.2 15.8 3.2% 2.0% 1.3 5.1 1.450 62.5 72.0
1.165 1.95 34% 59.4 8% 24.2 17.1 3.3% 2.0% 1.0 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
0.972 1.84 35% 60.7 8% 25.0 Mac 3.4%
18.1 market 2.0% 0.8 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
200
1.017 10.0%
2.92 34% 65.9 8% 26.6 18.8 3.6% 2.0% 1.7 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0 80
1.170 3.30 33% 71.3 8% 28.6 20.6 3.9% 2.0% 2.0 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
1.403 2.57 33% 64.2 8% 30.1 22.4 4.1% 2.0% 1.4 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
150 7.5% 60
1.210 2.28 33% 65.5 8% 31.1 23.8 4.2% 2.0% 1.1 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
1.252 3.80 32% 71.1 8% 33.4 24.8 4.4% 2.0% 2.2 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
100
1.399 5.0%
4.39 30% 77.0 8% 36.1 27.1 4.7% 2.0% 2.7 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0 40
1.639 3.34 30% 69.3 8% 38.0 29.6 4.9% 2.0% 1.9 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
1.450 2.85 30% 70.8 8% 39.4 31.4 5.0% 2.0% 1.4 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0
50 2.5% 20
1.494 4.84 29% 76.8 8% 42.2 32.9 5.2% 2.0% 2.8 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
1.644 5.65 28% 83.1 8% 45.7 35.8 5.6% 2.0% 3.4 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
01.896 0.0%
4.25 27% 74.8 8% 48.1 39.1 5.8% 2.0% 2.4 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0 0
J D J D 1.715 3.55 27%D JS M S8%
76.5 A J S50.0
M S M41.5
S M S5.9%M S M S M 1.8
2.0% S M 5.2S M1.450
S M 62.5
S M S75.0M
u e u e 1.765 6.05 26%e u e83.0
a e8% p ue53.5
a e a 43.4
e a e6.1%a e a2.0%e a 3.5
e a 5.1e a1.450
e a 62.5
e a e75.0a
n c n c 1.926 7.10 26%c n p89.8
r p8% r l p57.7
r p r 47.1
p r p6.5%r p r2.0%p r 4.2
p r 5.1p r1.450
p r 62.5
p r p75.0r
2.194 5.33 25% 80.8 8% 60.7 51.3 6.7% 2.0% 3.0 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
witch CPU 2.024 4.40 25%Mac82.6 8% 63.1 Mac54.5
inst base 6.8%
iPod inst bs 2.0% 2.3 5.2 1.450
Mac Market 62.5 % 75.0
1y halo
nits 2.083 7.46 25% 89.6 8% 67.3 57.0 7.1% 2.0%
share 4.2 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
2.262 8.77 24% 96.9 8% 72.4 61.6 7.4% 2.0% 5.1 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
2.550 6.60 24% 87.3 8% 76.1 66.9 Mac 7.6%$$ 2.0% 3.7 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
2.396
.500 5.42 23% 89.2 8% 79.0
120 71.0 7.8% 2.0% 2.9 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0 1.600
2.468 9.09 23% 96.8 8% 84.1 74.2 8.1% 2.0% 5.0 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
.400 100 23% 104.7 8% 90.1
2.669 10.69 80.1 8.4% 2.0% 6.0 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0 1.500
.300
2.982 80 22% 94.3 8% 94.6
8.10 86.7 8.7% 2.0% 4.5 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0 1.400
2.848
.200 60 22% 96.3 8% 98.2
6.66 91.8 8.8% 2.0% 3.6 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0 1.300
2.937
.100 10.99
40 22% 104.5 8% 104.1 96.0 9.1% 2.0% 6.0 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0
1.200
3.167 12.91
20 22% 113.1 8% 111.2 103.3 9.5% 2.0% 7.1 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
1.100
.000
3.510 9.87 21% 101.8 8% 116.6 111.5 9.7% 2.0% 5.4 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
J D J D 0 1.000
3.402 8.16 21% 104.0 8% 121.0 118.0 9.9% 2.0% 4.4 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0
u e u e D J S M S A J
3.512 13.20 21% 112.9 8% 128.0S M S M S M S M
123.5 10.2%S M S M S M S M S M S M
2.0% 7.0 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0S M
n c n c 3.776 15.48 e 21%
ue a e p u8%
122.1 e a136.3
e a e132.5
a e a10.6%e a e 2.0%
a e a8.3e a5.1e 1.450
a e a62.5
e a 75.0
c np r p r l p r p r p r p r p r p r p r p r p r p r p r
ser
Mac CPU AUP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr
.100 40 1.200
.000 20 1.100
J D J D 0 1.000
u e u e D JS M S AJ S M S M S M S M S M S M S M S M S M S M S M
n c n c e ue a e p ue a e a e a e a e a e a e a e a e a e a e a
4.158 11.96 c 21%
np r110.0
p r l 8%
p r 142.7
p r p142.8
r p r10.9%
p r p2.0%r p r6.5pr5.1p 1.450
r p r 62.5
p r 75.0
ser
4.080 9.97 21% 112.3 8% 148.1 151.0 11.1% 2.0% 5.4 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0
Mac CPU AUP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr
4.217 15.78 20% 121.9 8% 156.3 158.1 11.4% 2.0% 8.2 5.2 1.450 62.5 75.0
4.525 18.45 20% 131.9 8% 166.0 169.4 11.8% 2.0% 9.6 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
4.953 14.43 20% 118.8 8% 173.7 182.2 12.1% 2.0% 7.7 5.1 1.450 62.5 75.0
Mac Mac
CPU prfls SW Tot
rev rev rev rev Products
1.269 0.222 0.212 2.006 PC iTMS
1.160 0.238 0.187 1.909 iPod mini
1.263 0.219 0.210 2.014
1.231 0.271 0.213 2.350 4G iPod
1.605 0.284 0.213 3.490
1.494 0.280 0.239 3.243 iPod shuffle
1.565 0.266 0.345 3.520
1.611 0.296 0.294 3.678 iPod nano
1.724 0.303 0.325 5.749 5G iPod/TV series
1.572 0.264 0.324 4.359 Intel Macs/Hi-Fi
1.866 0.236 0.314 4.370 MacBook
2.213 0.297 0.316 4.837 Mac Pro/movies
2.410 0.297 0.347 7.115 Shuffle 2
2.176 0.281 0.326 5.2 iTV
2.203 0.333 0.339 5.2
3.015 0.364 0.359 6.5
3.523 0.365 0.524 9.5
2.889 0.344 0.466 7.0
2.671 0.400 0.418 6.3
804.078 0.438 0.448 8.2
4.870 0.450 0.626 11.8
3.799 0.436 0.576 8.6
60
3.314 0.496 0.534 7.7
5.360 0.543 0.574 10.2
406.449 0.566 0.765 14.4
4.907 0.559 0.724 10.7
4.133 0.625 0.689 9.4
20
6.868 0.682 0.741 12.6
8.277 0.716 0.945 17.5
0 6.229 0.718 0.915 13.2
S M S M 5.145 0.790 0.887 11.5
e a e a 8.624 0.858 0.951 15.4
p r p r 10.381 0.903 1.171 21.2
7.792 0.915 1.151 16.2
halo % 6.376 0.995 1.133 14.0
10.662 1.074 1.211 18.7
12.801 1.133 1.446 25.5
9.636 1.155 1.439 19.9
1.6007.867 1.244 1.432 17.2
13.029 1.336 1.525 22.7
1.500
15.588 1.409 1.778 30.6
1.400
11.809 1.444 1.786 24.3
1.3009.667 1.544 1.791 21.0
15.780 1.649 1.901 27.4
1.200
18.805 1.739 2.174 36.5
1.100
14.374 1.788 2.199 29.5
1.000
11.837 1.901 2.219 25.6
M S M 18.984 2.023 2.349 33.0
a e a 22.525 2.131 2.644 43.5
r p r
1.200
1.100
1.000
M S M
a e a
r p r 17.405 2.197 2.689 35.9
14.453 2.324 2.727 31.3
22.726 2.465 2.880 39.6
26.840 2.595 3.201 51.8
20.992 2.680 3.269 43.5
Comments
43.33

All unit numbers in millions


$ revenue in billions
$ unit prices in thousands

Assumptions/definitions
Halo effect starts in F04 CPUs from F03 PC iPods
Switch CPU units = CPUs beyond industry growth
Halo% = ttm switch CPU units / iPod switch base

iPod installed base / Replacement cycles:


Installed base increase (new usrs) = iPods sold - iPods replaced
iPods replaced = previous installed base / avg life cycle
2 year initial life cycle

iPod switch base:


1st year (03) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/5 CPU share
2nd year (04) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/4 CPU share
3rd year (05) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/2 CPU share
Beyond 3rd year (>05) new iPod users PC/Mac share = 3/4 CPU share

iPod future sales:


55 million iPod units in next 12m
Beyond 12m iPod unit growth based on CPU unit growth + rev.halo

Unit prices / Revenues:


Other music revenue (iTMS, accessories) attached to iPod units
Other revenue (software, peripherals) attached to CPU units

CPU industry / Market share:


2.1% pre-halo CPU market share
15 million pre-halo Mac installed base
Historical industry unit growth from IDC
8% future industry unit growth

You might also like