US Web order daily rates (fwd 30 dma)

Datetime (PST) Order# days orders rate

12/26/2003 00:00 6912 35.00 375 10.71 24.0
01/16/2004 00:00 7143 14.00 144 10.29 21.0
01/27/2004 00:00 7248 35.00 335 9.57 11.0
01/30/2004 00:00 7287 32.00 296 9.25 3.0
03/02/2004 00:00 7583 7.00 59 8.43 32.0
03/09/2004 00:00 7642 41.00 347 8.46 7.0
04/19/2004 00:00 7989 49.00 425 8.67 41.0
06/07/2004 00:00 8414 33.00 311 9.42 49.0
06/12/2004 00:00 8472 28.00 253 9.04 5.0
07/10/2004 00:00 8725 52.00 530 10.19 28.0
08/31/2004 00:00 9255 57.00 564 9.89 52.0
10/27/2004 00:00 9819 30.00 353 11.77 57.0
11/26/2004 00:00 10172 30.00 707 23.57 30.0
12/09/2004 00:00 10459 27.00 564 20.89 13.0
12/26/2004 00:00 10879 28.00 436 15.57 17.0
01/05/2005 00:00 11023 33.00 413 12.52 10.0
01/23/2005 00:00 11315 34.00 530 15.59 18.0
02/07/2005 00:00 11436 35.00 663 18.94 15.0
02/26/2005 00:00 11845 31.00 454 14.65 19.0
03/02/2005 00:00 11925 33.00 442 13.39 4.0
03/14/2005 00:00 12099 32.00 459 14.34 12.0
03/29/2005 00:00 12299 31.00 475 15.32 15.0
04/04/2005 00:00 12367 30.00 539 17.97 6.0
04/10/2005 00:00 12437 31.00 581 18.74 6.0
04/15/2005 00:00 12558 26.00 460 17.69 5.0
04/25/2005 00:00 12699 16.00 319 19.94 10.0
04/29/2005 00:00 12774 34.00 574 16.88 4.0
05/04/2005 00:00 12906 29.00 442 15.24 5.0
05/11/2005 00:00 13018 34.00 507 14.91 7.0
06/02/2005 00:00 13348 26.00 368 14.15 22.0
06/14/2005 00:00 13525 35.00 469 13.40 12.0
06/28/2005 00:00 13716 34.00 447 13.15 14.0
07/13/2005 00:00 13909 34.00 475 13.97 15.0
07/19/2005 00:00 13994 32.00 453 14.16 6.0
08/01/2005 00:00 14163 28.00 391 13.96 13.0
08/07/2005 00:00 14256 31.48 412 13.09 6.0
08/16/2005 00:00 14384 34.75 564 16.22 9.0
08/20/2005 00:00 14447 30.75 501 16.28 4.0
08/24/2005 06:42 14494 31.72 563 17.74 4.3
08/29/2005 00:00 14554 31.57 584 18.51 4.7
09/07/2005 11:25 14668 28.88 577 19.97 9.5
09/13/2005 21:00 14827 30.53 569 18.64 6.4
09/19/2005 18:03 14948 31.62 599 18.96 5.9
09/24/2005 23:58 15057 32.61 614 18.84 5.2
09/29/2005 13:43 15138 28.03 533 19.01 4.6
10/06/2005 08:32 15245 28.34 556 19.61 6.8
10/14/2005 09:40 15396 28.02 557 19.89 8.0
10/21/2005 09:00 15547 28.11 569 20.23 7.0
10/27/2005 14:30 15671 32.74 854 26.10 6.2
11/03/2005 16:42 15800 28.79 899 31.23 7.1
11/11/2005 10:02 15953 34.18 1756 51.39 7.7
11/18/2005 11:41 16116 27.11 1594 58.79 7.1
11/25/2005 12:07 16338 28.46 1898 66.69 7.0
11/29/2005 08:10 16525 32.36 1964 60.70 3.8
12/02/2005 11:40 16700 29.21 1790 61.27 3.1
12/09/2005 15:19 17198 33.84 1580 46.68 7.2
12/15/2005 14:15 17710 34.64 1219 35.20 6.0
12/23/2005 23:08 18236 32.51 815 25.07 8.4
12/31/2005 16:42 18489 30.65 667 21.77 7.7
01/06/2006 11:48 18621 32.08 677 21.11 5.8
01/12/2006 11:26 18778 33.82 678 20.05 6.0
01/19/2006 05:30 18929 27.07 528 19.49 6.8
01/25/2006 11:17 19050 28.87 547 18.95 6.2
01/31/2006 08:18 19156 30.11 567 18.84 5.9
02/07/2006 13:42 19298 31.18 565 18.11 7.2
02/15/2006 07:08 19456 30.39 510 16.79 7.7
02/23/2006 08:05 19597 29.02 464 15.98 8.0
03/02/2006 10:53 19724 30.43 458 15.06 7.1
03/10/2006 18:05 19863 34.85 502 14.41 8.3
03/17/2006 16:28 19966 33.61 474 14.11 6.9
03/24/2006 08:30 20061 32.98 479 14.52 6.7
04/01/2006 21:08 20182 30.71 431 14.05 8.5
04/07/2006 23:50 20273 31.70 444 14.01 6.1
04/14/2006 14:29 20365 31.86 458 14.37 6.6
04/20/2006 07:00 20441 33.52 512 15.29 5.7
04/26/2006 08:00 20540 27.48 413 15.03 6.0
05/02/2006 14:10 20613 30.04 472 15.73 6.3
05/09/2006 16:45 20717 30.01 489 16.31 7.1
05/16/2006 11:02 20823 30.86 511 16.57 6.8
05/23/2006 19:35 20953 31.35 509 16.24 7.4
06/01/2006 15:01 21086 30.36 491 16.18 8.8
06/08/2006 16:54 21206 29.02 453 15.61 7.1
06/16/2006 07:38 21334 34.02 513 15.08 7.6
06/24/2006 04:00 21462 33.24 500 15.04 7.8
07/01/2006 23:45 21577 31.45 479 15.22 7.8
07/07/2006 17:25 21659 31.82 499 15.69 5.7
07/14/2006 04:35 21753 32.91 556 16.90 6.5
07/20/2006 08:05 21847 34.53 604 17.49 6.1
07/27/2006 09:46 21962 27.46 488 17.79 7.1
08/02/2006 10:30 22056 29.30 527 18.00 6.0
08/08/2006 13:00 22158 30.78 540 17.56 6.1
08/16/2006 02:19 22309 30.06 548 18.23 7.6
08/23/2006 20:45 22451 30.73 597 19.41 7.8
08/31/2006 17:35 22583 30.67 608 19.83 7.9
09/08/2006 07:48 22699 29.30 611 20.84 7.6
09/15/2006 03:44 22857 28.76 565 19.65 6.8
09/23/2006 14:20 23047 34.64 639 18.45 8.4
10/01/2006 09:40 23191 26.83 495 18.45 7.8
10/07/2006 15:06 23310 30.66 582 18.98 6.2
10/13/2006 22:05 23423 33.85 701 20.70 6.3
10/20/2006 06:45 23536 27.49 587 21.36 6.4
10/28/2006 05:40 23686 34.70 1033 29.76 8.0
11/07/2006 06:57 23892 31.92 1210 37.92 10.1
11/16/2006 18:30 24124 29.06 1429 49.16 9.5
11/25/2006 02:18 24423 34.99 1650 47.17 8.3
12/01/2006 22:35 24719 28.15 1354 48.11 6.8
12/09/2006 05:05 25102 34.76 1262 36.30 7.3
12/15/2006 20:00 25552 34.93 940 26.91 6.6
12/23/2006 08:35 25885 27.41 607 22.14 7.5
12/30/2006 02:05 26073 28.90 575 19.90 6.7
01/06/2007 11:00 26210 28.30 596 21.05 7.4
01/12/2007 23:15 26364 29.14 611 20.96 6.5
01/19/2007 18:20 26492 29.22 623 21.31 6.8
01/27/2007 23:45 26648 34.96 709 20.28 8.2
02/03/2007 18:10 26806 28.19 552 19.57 6.8
02/11/2007 02:37 26974 34.96 623 17.82 7.4
02/17/2007 23:41 27115 28.08 482 17.18 6.9
02/25/2007 01:20 27234 34.95 597 17.07 7.1
03/03/2007 22:40 27357 28.06 473 16.87 6.9 Web order daily rate
03/11/2007 11:36 27484 32.19 537 16.67 7.5
70
03/18/2007 01:34 27597 25.61 424 16.55 6.6
65
03/25/2007 03:15 27718 31.48 513 16.30 7.1 60
04/01/2007 00:10 27831 24.60 400 16.26 6.9 55
04/12/2007 16:05 28021 26.80 457 17.07 11.7 50
04/25/2007 14:40 28231 26.73 465 17.41 12.9 45
05/09/2007 11:21 28478 27.15 458 16.87 13.9 40
05/22/2007 08:10 28696 27.26 495 18.16 12.9 35
06/05/2007 15:00 28937 25.38 508 20.00 14.3 30
25
06/18/2007 14:30 29191 26.50 518 19.55 13.0 20
07/01/2007 00:08 29444 25.98 489 18.82 12.4 15
07/15/2007 02:23 29709 25.35 517 20.40 14.1 10
07/26/2007 23:35 29933 26.56 611 22.99 11.9 5
08/09/2007 10:40 30226 26.11 579 22.19 13.5 0
08/22/2007 13:01 30544 25.67 712 27.73 13.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
09/04/2007 13:15 30806 25.59 804 31.41 13.0 2 1 3 4 6 8 1 2 12 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 90 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
09/17/2007 05:00 31255 28.73 692 24.10 12.7
09/30/2007 03:20 31609 31.28 869 27.78 12.9
10/15/2007 22:36 31948 32.82 1031 31.42 15.8
10/31/2007 09:58 32478 29.82 1119 37.52 15.5 Short term forecasting (next 2 months)
11/17/2007 18:15 32979 29.56 1567 53.02 17.3 Datetime (PST) ord# yr ago days orders
11/30/2007 05:38 33597 32.43 1413 43.57 12.5 11/30/2007 05:38 33597 24634
12/17/2007 07:40 34546 29.31 758 25.88 17.1 12/17/2007 07:40 34546 25640 17.08 949
01/01/2008 16:03 35010 29.07 654 22.49 15.3 01/01/2008 16:03 35010 26125 15.35 464
01/15/2008 15:00 35305 33.09 766 23.15 14.0 01/15/2008 15:00 35305 26417 13.96 295
01/30/2008 17:38 35664 28.93 637 22.00 15.1 01/30/2008 17:38 35664 26709 15.11 359
02/14/2008 01:35 35987 29.77 620 20.84 14.3 02/14/2008 01:35 35987 27040 14.33 323
02/17/2008 17:11 36071 26.12 537 20.56 3.7 02/17/2008 17:11 36071 27110 3.65 84
02/21/2008 08:47 36151 22.47 456 20.31 3.7 02/21/2008 08:47 36151 27174 3.65 81
02/28/2008 16:00 36300 30.33 607 20.00 7.3 02/28/2008 16:00 36300 27299 7.30 149
03/14/2008 20:00 36608 15.17 299 19.73 15.2 03/14/2008 20:00 36608 27559 15.17 307
03/30/2008 00:00 36907 30.56 6.6 03/30/2008 00:00 36907 27815 15.17 299

Short term forecasting (ne

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15
30-Dec 6-Jan 13-Jan 20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17

rate yr ago
 Web order daily rate (fwd 30 dma) and regressions

0 0 0 01 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
8 9 9 90 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 34 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 00 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 45 6 7 8 9 9 0 1 1 1 2 2
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

rate
ng (next 2 months)
% rel rate yr ago events 14.98
02/29/2008 01:03
-5.7% 55.57 58.91 interp 02/14/2008 01:35 35987 22.09 31.8 -30%
-4.2% 30.21 31.55 EoQ interp 10/30/2007 00:00 32425 27.54 29.0 -5%
0.7% 21.12 20.97 MWSF project 03/14/2008 20:00 36604 20.00 32.6 -39%
23.3% 23.77 19.28 MBA shp
 -2.4% 22.57 23.11
19.1% 22.90 19.23 1.95 (interpolation)
26.1% 22.09 17.52 1.91 (interpolation)
19.4% 20.40 17.08 22.00 (current trend and planned events)
18.2% 20.27 17.15 1.98 (interpolation)
17.0% 19.73 16.86 EoQ 20.00 (long-term trends and seasonality)

Short term forecasting (next 2 months)

10-Feb 17-Feb 24-Feb 2-Mar 9-Mar 16-Mar 23-Mar 30-Mar

ate yr ago events

23-Mar 30-Mar
Monthly interpolation / projections / adjustments
Month est Ord# est rate rate regr %diff avg adj err
Dec-04 10879 23.4 14.1 66% 34% 49%
Jan-05 11334 15.0 15.4 -3% 6% -15%
Feb-05 11816 15.9 15.9 0% -4% 7%
Mar-05 12272 15.0 16.0 -6% -10% 6%
Apr-05 12724 14.9 16.1 -7% -10% 4%
May-05 13252 17.4 16.1 8% -7% 23%
Jun-05 13689 14.4 16.2 -11% -13% 2%
Jul-05 14089 13.2 16.4 -19% -14% -8%
Aug-05 14512 13.9 16.5 -16% -8% -12%
Sep-05 15057 18.0 16.7 7% 0% 12%
Oct-05 15672 18.8 17.1 10% -2% 19%
Nov-05 16525 26.1 17.4 50% 24% 40%
Dec-05 18496 60.3 18.4 228% 89% 194%
Jan-06 19156 21.8 19.1 14% 9% 8%
Feb-06 19727 18.8 19.4 -3% -4% 1%
Mar-06 20184 15.0 19.5 -23% -15% -13%
Apr-06 20610 14.1 19.4 -28% -17% -18%
May-06 21086 15.7 19.7 -20% -12% -14%
Jun-06 21577 16.2 19.9 -19% -15% -6%
Jul-06 22039 15.2 20.1 -24% -18% -10%
Aug-06 22582 17.9 20.3 -12% -10% -4%
Sep-06 23184 19.8 20.7 -4% -2% -4%
Oct-06 23749 18.6 21.0 -11% -6% -9%
Nov-06 24664 30.1 21.3 41% 30% 18%
Dec-06 26090 47.0 22.3 111% 97% 23%
Jan-07 26703 20.2 22.6 -11% 1% -20%
Feb-07 27317 20.2 22.8 -11% -7% -8% Monthly interpolation / projection / adjustments Seasonality
Mar-07 27831 16.9 22.5 -25% -19% -10% 80 160% 125%
Apr-07 28333 16.6 22.6 -27% -21% -10%
70
May-07 28853 17.1 22.8 -25% -17% -13% 100%
60 120%
Jun-07 29444 19.5 23.1 -16% -15% -1%
Jul-07 30028 19.2 23.1 -17% -18% 1% 50 75%
Aug-07 30707 22.4 23.2 -4% -7% 6% 40 80%
Sep-07 31605 29.6 23.5 26% 8% 28% 30 50%
Oct-07 32441 27.5 23.6 17% 2% 22% 20 40%
Nov-07 33568 37.2 23.6 57% 40% 27% 10 25%
Dec-07 34929 44.9 23.7 89% 94% -8% 0 0% 0%
Jan-08 35630 23.1 24.1 -4% -1% -5% -10
Feb-08 36300 22.1 24.2 -9% -7% -2%
-20 -40% -25%
Mar-08 36907 20.0 24.4 -18% -19% 1%
D F A J A OD F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A OD F A J A OD F R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Apr-08 37489 19.2 24.3 -21% -21% 0% e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
May-08 38142 21.5 26.0 -17% -17% 0% c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w
Jun-08 38807 21.9 25.9 -15% -15% 0%
Jul-08 39451 21.2 25.8 -18% -18% 0% est rate rate regr %diff avg adj err
Aug-08 40170 23.7 25.6 -7% -7% 0%
Sep-08 41014 27.8 25.7 8% 8% 0% Quarterly orders and revenue Stock valuation
Oct-08 41826 26.8 26.2 2% 2% 0% 16000 60 300
Nov-08 42950 37.1 26.5 40% 40% 0%
Dec-08 44568 53.3 27.5 94% 94% 0% 14000 50 250
Jan-09 45448 29.0 29.3 -1% -1% 0% 12000
Feb-09 46281 27.5 29.7 -7% -7% 0% 10000 40 200
Mar-09 47019 24.3 29.9 -19% -19% 0% 8000
30 150
pe

Apr-09 47733 23.5 29.8 -21% -21% 0%

May-09 48477 24.5 29.6 -17% -17% 0% 6000
Jun-09 49237 25.1 29.6 -15% -15% 0% 4000 20 100
Jul-09 49975 24.3 29.6 -18% -18% 0% 2000
Aug-09 50803 27.3 29.5 -7% -7% 0% 10 50
0
Sep-09 51776 32.1 29.6 8% 8% 0%
D M J S D M J S D MJ S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M - 0
Oct-09 52712 30.8 30.1 2% 2% 0% e ar u e e ar u e e ar u e e ar u e e ar u e e ar u e e ar
Nov-09 54006 42.7 30.5 40% 40% 0% D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
c- - n- p- c- - n- p- c- - n- p- c- - n- p- c- - n- p- c- - n- p- c- - ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar n- e ec ar
Dec-09 55860 61.1 31.5 94% 94% 0%
- - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 0 p- - - 1 p- - -
Jan-10 56858 32.9 33.3 -1% -1% 0% orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr
Feb-10 57803 31.2 33.6 -7% -7% 0%
halo pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc
Mar-10 58640 27.6 33.9 -19% -19% 0%

Quarterly / financials
Quarter orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo rev grw opx g opex d g mrgn op ex cash st inv int int rate tax tax rate sh cnt eps ttm pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc 1q grw 1y grw cash/sh 1y rtrn mkt cap rev gd eps gd %rev %eps
Dec-04 1371 3490 2546 1300 3048 2344 74% 28% 3.8% 28.5% 593 2475 3973 26 1.62% 134 31.2% 838 0.35 0.65 32.20 49.42 18.58 37.61 14.14 340% 291% 7.69 201% 26.99 2850 0.20 -18% -42%
Mar-05 1393 3243 2328 1359 3289 2420 70% 21% 1.6% 29.8% 566 2254 4803 33 1.88% 145 33.3% 857 0.34 0.92 41.67 45.49 22.39 36.50 17.97 357% 317% 8.23 208% 35.71 2900 0.20 -11% -41%
Jun-05 1416 3520 2485 1421 3549 2497 75% 29% 1.0% 29.7% 617 3094 4432 46 2.47% 153 32.3% 861 0.37 1.20 36.81 30.68 18.15 23.39 13.84 323% 327% 8.74 126% 31.68 3250 0.28 -8% -25%
Sep-05 1368 3678 2688 1486 3830 2578 57% 23% -0.2% 28.1% 617 3491 4770 60 2.94% 152 31.8% 866 0.38 1.44 53.61 37.27 24.25 30.64 19.94 173% 279% 9.53 177% 46.45 3500 0.32 -5% -15%
Dec-05 2539 5749 2264 1559 4157 2667 65% 37% 0.8% 27.2% 814 4150 4557 81 3.77% 266 32.0% 874 0.65 1.73 71.89 41.49 26.62 35.74 22.93 84% 166% 9.96 123% 62.85 4700 0.46 -18% -29%
Mar-06 1688 4359 2583 1629 4485 2753 34% 36% 4.0% 29.8% 768 6346 1880 76 3.75% 195 32.2% 879 0.47 1.86 62.72 33.70 20.22 28.67 17.20 38% 103% 9.36 51% 55.10 4300 0.38 -1% -19%
Jun-06 1393 4370 3136 1703 4840 2841 24% 23% 2.7% 30.3% 759 8013 1163 95 4.21% 189 28.6% 876 0.54 2.03 57.27 28.24 16.45 23.08 13.44 45% 69% 10.47 56% 50.19 4300 0.41 -2% -24%
Sep-06 1607 4837 3011 1781 5223 2933 32% 30% 4.5% 29.2% 803 6392 3718 113 4.55% 231 32.0% 879 0.56 2.21 74.22 33.58 19.24 28.37 16.26 48% 54% 11.50 38% 65.22 4550 0.47 -6% -16%
Dec-06 2906 7115 2448 1862 5636 3027 24% 10% -0.2% 31.2% 898 7159 4710 126 4.31% 444 30.7% 883 1.14 2.70 84.84 31.41 18.95 26.44 15.95 76% 56% 13.44 18% 74.94 6100 0.72 -14% -37%
Mar-07 1740 5264 3024 1946 6081 3124 21% 12% -2.7% 35.1% 863 7095 5482 148 4.79% 364 32.1% 887 0.87 3.10 92.91 29.95 19.63 25.38 16.64 86% 67% 14.18 48% 82.38 4850 0.55 -8% -37%
Jun-07 1613 5410 3353 2035 6562 3225 24% 26% 1.5% 36.9% 954 7118 6649 155 4.58% 378 31.6% 891 0.92 3.48 122.04 35.05 24.81 30.61 21.67 71% 72% 15.46 113% 108.70 5100 0.66 -6% -28%
Sep-07 2161 6217 2877 2127 7081 3328 6217 29% 28% 3.4% 33.6% 1030 9352 6034 170 4.49% 393 32.0% 896 0.93 3.86 153.47 39.78 29.05 35.33 25.79 67% 75% 17.18 107% 137.46 5700 0.65 -8% -30%
Dec-07 3324 9608 2891 2224 7640 3435 9608 35% 34% 11.7% 34.7% 1206 9162 9286 200 4.41% 745 32.0% 900 1.76 4.48 198.08 44.23 34.53 39.66 30.96 55% 66% 20.50 133% 178.28 9200 1.42 -4% -19%
Mar-08 1978 7189 3634 2325 8244 3546 7180 37% 31% 16.0% 33.6% 1130 9454 9750 203 4.30% 476 32.0% 902 1.12 4.73 155.65 32.89 25.00 28.39 21.58 29% 53% 21.30 68% 140.34 6800 0.94 -5% -16%
Jun-08 1900 7350 3868 2431 8896 3660 7345 36% 26% 15.2% 33.5% 1205 10437 10238 214 4.20% 471 32.0% 905 1.11 4.92 168.08 34.17 25.00 29.53 21.60 20% 41% 22.84 38% 152.14 ### 0.85 -6% -24%
Sep-08 2207 8295 3759 2541 9599 3777 8298 33% 24% 13.7% 33.5% 1273 11828 10750 231 4.15% 556 32.0% 909 1.30 5.28 181.46 34.34 25.00 29.64 21.58 39% 37% 24.85 18% 164.87 ### 0.98 -7% -24%
Dec-08 3554 12438 3500 2657 10358 3899 12413 29% 22% 10.0% 33.5% 1466 14683 11287 262 4.10% 948 32.0% 912 2.21 5.74 196.89 34.33 25.00 29.36 21.38 26% 28% 28.47 -1% 179.59 ### 1.65 -7% -25%
Mar-09 2451 9716 3964 2777 11177 4024 9724 35% 20% 6.5% 33.5% 1352 15109 11852 269 4.05% 695 32.0% 916 1.61 6.23 211.28 33.93 25.00 29.21 21.52 44% 32% 29.45 36% 193.45
Jun-09 2218 9859 4444 2904 12060 4154 9845 34% 18% 3.8% 33.5% 1419 16216 12444 282 4.00% 693 32.0% 919 1.60 6.72 224.79 33.44 25.00 28.80 21.53 45% 37% 31.18 34% 206.61
Sep-09 2539 10940 4309 3035 13014 4287 10955 32% 16% 1.8% 33.5% 1480 17833 13066 304 4.00% 797 32.0% 923 1.83 7.26 239.35 32.98 25.00 28.36 21.50 41% 37% 33.49 32% 220.84
Dec-09 4084 15518 3800 3173 14043 4425 15534 25% 15% 0.8% 33.5% 1692 21130 13720 343 4.00% 1232 32.0% 926 2.83 7.88 256.57 32.58 25.00 27.80 21.33 28% 37% 37.63 30% 237.64
Mar-10 2780 12507 4499 3318 15153 4567 12499 29% 15% 0.2% 33.5% 1555 21776 14406 357 4.00% 957 32.0% 930 2.19 8.45 272.90 32.29 25.00 27.69 21.44 36% 36% 38.91 29% 253.74
Jun-10 2551 12506 4903 3468 16350 4714 12488 27% 15% 0.0% 33.5% 1625 23174 15126 377 4.00% 941 32.0% 933 2.14 8.99 287.74 32.00 25.00 27.44 21.43 34% 34% 41.03 28% 268.56
Sep-10 2920 13782 4720 3626 17643 4866 13751 26% 14% 0.0% 33.5% 1692 25275 15882 406 4.00% 1066 32.0% 937 2.42 9.57 303.98 31.75 25.00 27.16 21.39 32% 32% 43.93 27% 284.81
Dec-10 4696 18902 4025 3791 19038 5022 18897 22% 14% 0.0% 33.5% 1923 29290 16676 453 4.00% 1556 32.0% 941 3.51 10.26 323.28 31.50 25.00 26.74 21.22 24% 30% 48.87 26% 304.06
Mar-11 3197 15579 4873 3963 20543 5184 15597 25% 12% 0.0% 33.5% 1746 30354 17510 472 4.00% 1262 32.0% 944 2.84 10.92 341.13 31.25 25.00 26.61 21.28 30% 29% 50.69 25% 322.08
11.51 28.62 28%
1.7566 12.16 129.4 20% 27%
Operations
nx yr 32443 5.2837 12.93 207.75 52% 26%
80%
7.8112 13.65 195.28 51% 25%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar
- - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - - 09 - - - 10 - - -

rev grw opx g opex d g mrgn

 12/15 12/30 1/12 1/19 1/27 2/11 2/25 3/11 4/1 4/12 4/25 5/9 5/22 6/5 6/18 7/1 7/15
F07Q1 .93 .92 .92 1.14
F07Q2 .76 .74 .67 .65 .66 .66 .66 .66 .67 .67 .87
F07Q3 .75 .74 .74 .75 .74 .74 .74 .74 .73 .69 .73 .74 .76 .76 .76 .78 .78
F07Q4 .75 .75 .76 .81 .81 .81 .81 .82 .82 .78 .84 .84 .81 .86 .86 .87 .85
F08Q1 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.39 1.39 1.41 1.45 1.61 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.61 1.66 1.68
F08Q2 1.15 1.15 1.13 1.13 1.08 1.14 1.15
F08Q3
F08Q4
F09Q1
fwd12m 3.18 3.14 3.08 3.60 3.61 3.62 3.60 3.61 3.63 3.58 4.33 4.32 4.30 4.35 4.31 4.44 4.45
actual 3.86 4.48 4.73
diff -20% -20% -6%

2.25

2.00

1.75

1.50
1q eps

1.25

1.00

.75

.50
Dec-06 Apr-07 Jul-07

F07Q1 F07Q2 F07Q3 F07Q4 F08Q1 F08Q2

 7/26 8/9 8/22 9/4 9/17 9/30 10/15 10/31 ### ### ### 1/1 1/15 1/30 2/14

.92
.84 .86 .87 .85 .91 .94 .94 .93
1.63 1.65 1.65 1.63 1.64 1.67 1.68 1.73 1.75 1.80 1.82 1.80
1.76 1.80
1.16 1.17 1.19 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.10 1.14 1.14 1.18 1.15 1.14
1.12 1.18 1.12
1.16 1.18 1.17 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.13 1.17 1.15 1.19 1.16 1.16
1.11 1.19 1.11
1.37 1.37 1.34 1.35 1.36
1.30 1.37 1.30
2.17 2.21
4.80 4.86 4.87 4.77 4.80 4.84 4.85 5.41 5.40 5.51 5.47 5.46 5.55 5.70 5.74
4.92 5.28
-1% 5%

6.5

5.5

4.5

3.5

3
Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08

F08Q1 F08Q2 F08Q3 F08Q4 F09Q1 fwd12m

 6.5

5.5

4.5

3.5

3
Mar-08
Date Price FV Tgt rec
9-Jan-06 76.3
17-Jan-06 85.59
23-Jan-06 76.09
30-Jan-06 72.03
6-Feb-06 71.85
13-Feb-06 67.31
21-Feb-06 70.29
27-Feb-06 71.46
6-Mar-06 67.72
13-Mar-06 63.19
20-Mar-06 64.66
27-Mar-06 59.96
3-Apr-06 62.72
10-Apr-06 69.79
17-Apr-06 66.47
24-Apr-06 67.04 80 103 B
1-May-06 70.39
8-May-06 71.89 79 99 B
15-May-06 67.7
22-May-06 64.51
30-May-06 63.55 75 92 B
5-Jun-06 61.66
12-Jun-06 59.24 74 94 B
19-Jun-06 57.56 74 96 B
26-Jun-06 58.83
3-Jul-06 57.27
10-Jul-06 55.4
17-Jul-06 50.67 74 94 B
24-Jul-06 60.72
31-Jul-06 65.59 80 105 B
7-Aug-06 68.3
14-Aug-06 63.65 80 102 B
21-Aug-06 67.91 80 102 B
28-Aug-06 68.75
5-Sep-06 68.38
11-Sep-06 72.52
18-Sep-06 74.1 80 102 B
25-Sep-06 73 81 103 B
2-Oct-06 76.98
9-Oct-06 74.22 81 104 B
13-Oct-06 75.02
16-Oct-06 75.02
23-Oct-06 79.95 87 111 B
30-Oct-06 80.41
6-Nov-06 78.29
13-Nov-06 83.12
20-Nov-06 85.85
27-Nov-06 91.63
4-Dec-06 91.32 88 113 b
11-Dec-06 88.26 87 112 b
18-Dec-06 87.72 88 113 b
26-Dec-06 82.2
3-Jan-07 84.84 87 113 b
8-Jan-07 85.05
16-Jan-07 94.62
22-Jan-07 88.5 96 121 b
29-Jan-07 85.38 101 124 B
5-Feb-07 84.75
12-Feb-07 83.27
20-Feb-07 84.83
26-Feb-07 89.07
5-Mar-07 85.41
12-Mar-07 87.97
19-Mar-07 89.59
26-Mar-07 93.52
2-Apr-07 92.91
9-Apr-07 94.68
16-Apr-07 90.24
23-Apr-07 90.97 99 122
30-Apr-07 99.92
7-May-07 100.81 114 137 B
14-May-07 108.74
21-May-07 110.02
29-May-07 113.62
4-Jun-07 118.4
11-Jun-07 124.49 115 141 n
18-Jun-07 120.5
25-Jun-07 123
2-Jul-07 122.04
9-Jul-07 132.3
16-Jul-07 137.73
23-Jul-07 143.75
30-Jul-07 143.85 119 150 n
6-Aug-07 131.85 132 162 b
13-Aug-07 125 B
200
20-Aug-07 122.06
27-Aug-07 135.3 190
4-Sep-07 138.48
10-Sep-07 131.77 180
17-Sep-07 138.81 170
24-Sep-07 144.15
1-Oct-07 153.47 133 160 s 160
8-Oct-07 161.45
150
15-Oct-07 167.25
22-Oct-07 170.42 143 174 s 140
29-Oct-07 184.7 146 181 s
5-Nov-07 187.87 130
12-Nov-07 165.37 120
19-Nov-07 166.39
26-Nov-07 171.54 145 181 n 110
3-Dec-07 182.22 148 186 s
100
10-Dec-07 194.3
17-Dec-07 190.39 90

80
70
60

50
 120

110
100
90
24-Dec-07 193.91
31-Dec-07 199.83 80
7-Jan-08 180.05 70
14-Jan-08 172.69 158 199 n
22-Jan-08 161.36 160 200 b 60
28-Jan-08 130.01 154 196 B
50
4-Feb-08 133.75
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07
11-Feb-08 125.48
18-Feb-08 129.4 156 197
Price
FV
Tgt
 FV
Tgt

Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08

Price
FV
Tgt
FV
Tgt
 iPhn iPhn New iPhn srvc accs iPhn iPhn iPhn Tot iPod
iPhn unit inst iPhn life iPhn /user /user HW srvc accs iPhn iPod unit
Date units grw base usrs cycl AUP /year /year rev rev rev rev units grw
Dec-03 0.7 170%
Mar-04 0.8 320%
Jun-04 0.9 268%
Sep-04 2.0 370%
Dec-04 4.6 469%
Mar-05 5.3 486%
Jun-05 6.2 560%
Sep-05 6.5 409%
Dec-05 14.0 287%
Apr-06 8.5 176%
Jul-06 8.1 106%
Sep-06 8.7 75%
Dec-06 21.1 45%
Mar-07 10.5 38%
Jun-07 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.5 0.575 0 7.0 0.0 0.00 0.005 0.005 9.8 35%
Sep-07 1.1 1.4 1.1 2.5 0.540 145 9.0 0.06 0.03 0.026 0.118 10.2 31%
Dec-07 2.3 3.7 2.3 2.5 0.420 140 5.7 0.16 0.05 0.036 0.241 22.1 13%
Mar-08 1.8 5.5 1.8 2.5 0.420 140 6.0 0.26 0.12 0.04 0.42 11.0 10%
Jun-08 2.1 7.5 2.0 2.5 0.420 140 6.0 0.37 0.17 0.04 0.58 10.2 7%
Sep-08 2.7 143% 9.8 2.3 3.2 0.420 140 6.0 0.49 0.22 0.06 0.77 10.5 4%
Dec-08 3.4 79% 12.4 2.6 2.6 0.420 140 6.0 0.66 0.26 0.06 0.97 24.6 7%
Mar-09 2.2 61% 14.0 1.6 2.7 0.420 140 6.0 0.80 0.33 0.05 1.19 12.7 9%
Jun-09 2.6 50% 15.8 1.8 iPhone
2.8 0.420 market
140 6.0 0.92 0.37 0.06 1.35 11.7 11%
Sep-09 3.3 30% 17.9 2.1 2.9 0.420 140 6.0 1.03 0.42 0.07 1.52 12.1 14%
Dec-09 4 4.2 23% 20.2 2.3 2.7 0.420 140 6.0 1.13 0.45 80
0.08 1.66 27.5 14% 20
Mar-10 2.7 22% 21.7 1.5 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 1.20 0.52 0.07 1.79 14.9 14%
Jun-10 3 3.2 21% 23.5 1.8 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 1.25 0.56 60
0.08 1.89 13.7 15% 15
Sep-10 4.0 21% 25.5 2.1 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 1.31 0.61 0.09 2.01 14.2 15%
Dec-10 2 5.1 22% 27.8 2.3 2.7 0.420 140 6.0 1.39 0.64 0.09 2.13
40 31.1 15%
Mar-11 3.3 22% 29.4 1.6 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 1.46 0.71 0.09 2.26 17.7 16% 10
Jun-11 1 3.9 22% 31.2 1.8 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 1.52 0.75 0.09 2.37
20 16.3 16%
Sep-11 4.9 22% 33.4 2.2 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 1.60 0.80 0.10 2.51 16.8 16% 5
Dec-11 6.2 22% 36.0 2.6 2.7 0.420 140 6.0 1.70 0.84 0.12 2.65 35.4 17%
0 0
Mar-12 4.0 22% 37.8 1.8 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 1.78 0.91 0.11 2.80 21.3 17%
Jun-12 D M J S22%
4.8 D MJ S39.8
D MJ S 2.0
D MJ S2.8
D M0.420
J S D M J 140
S 1 M J S6.0
DMJ1.86
S DM0.96
J S DMJ0.12
S 1 A 2.93 19.6 17% 0
Sep-12 e6.0
a u e22%
e a u e42.2
e a u e 2.5
e a u e2.8
e a 0.420
u e e a u 140
e 2 a u e6.0
e a u1.95
e e a 1.01
u e e a u0.13
e 2 p 3.09 20.1 18% D J D J
12/29/12 c7.5
r n p22%
c r n p45.2
c r n p 3.0
c r n p2.7
c r 0.420
n p c r n 140
p / r n p6.0
c r n2.06
p c r 1.05
n p c r n0.14
p / r 3.26 40.5 18% e u e u
Mar-13 4.9 21% 47.2 2.0 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 2.17 1.14 0.13 3.44 25.7 18% c n c n
Jun-13 5.8Mac iPod 49.4
21% inst 2.3 iPhn2.8
inst0.420
base 140 New iPhn6.0 usrs iPhn HW
2.26 1.19 0.14rev3.59 23.7 18%
Sep-13 bs
7.2 21% 52.3 2.8 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 2.37 1.26 0.15 3.78 24.2 19% iPod
Dec-13 9.1iPhn
21%srvc55.7
rev 3.5 2.7 0.420 140 6.0 2.51 1.30 0.17 3.98 46.7 19%
Mar-14 5.9 21% 58.0 2.3 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 2.63 1.40 0.16 4.19 31.3 19%
Jun-14 7.0 21% 60.7 2.7 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 2.74 1.47 0.17 4.37 28.9 19%
Sep-14 8.7 21% 64.0 3.3 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 2.87 1.54 0.19 4.60 29.4 19% 50
Dec-14 11.0 21% 68.1 4.1 2.7 0.420 140 6.0 3.03 1.59 0.21 4.83 54.1 19% 40
Mar-15 7.1 21% 70.8 2.7 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 3.18 1.71 0.19 5.09 38.2 20%
Jun-15 8.4 21% 74.0 3.2 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 3.31 1.79 0.21 5.30 35.3 20% 30
Sep-15 10.6 21% 77.9 3.9 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 3.47 1.88 0.23 5.57 35.8 20% 20
Dec-15 13.2 21% 82.8 4.9 2.7 0.420 140 6.0 3.66 1.94 0.25 5.85 63.0 20% 10
0
D J D J
e u e u
c n c n
 50
40
30
20
10
Mar-16 8.6 21% 86.0 3.2 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 3.84 2.08 0.23 6.16 46.7 20% 0
Jun-16 10.1 21% 89.7 3.7 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 4.00 2.17 0.25 6.41 43.2 20%
D J D J
Sep-16 12.7 21% 94.4 4.7 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 4.19 2.28 0.27 6.73 43.7 20%
e u e u
12/31/16 15.9 21% 100.3 5.8 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 4.42 2.35 0.30 7.07 73.8 20%
c n c n
Apr-17 10.3 21% 104.1 3.8 2.8 0.420 140 6.0 4.64 2.52 0.28 7.43 57.2 21%
iPod iPod New Switch iPod accs iTMS iPod iTMS Mac
inst switch iPod CPU life iPod /user /user iPod accs iTMS +accs Mac unit
base base usrs units cycl AUP /year /year rev rev rev rev units grw
1.8 0.4 0.6 1.9 0.357 37.5 29.1 0.256 0.028 0.019 0.047 0.83 0%
2.5 0.7 0.7 2.5 0.345 47.1 37.5 0.264 0.033 0.027 0.060 0.75 5%
3.2 1.0 0.7 2.2 0.325 47.9 42.0 0.249 0.036 0.037 0.073 0.88 10%
5.0 2.1 1.8 2.4 0.296 47.2 41.5 0.537 0.051 0.047 0.098 0.84 9%
9.3 5.0 4.2 0.109 2.3 0.274 43.2 38.4 1.211 0.096 0.081 0.177 1.05 13%
14.2 8.4 5.0 0.226 2.4 0.236 34.3 36.8 1.014 0.089 0.127 0.216 1.07 22%
19.9 12.6 5.7 0.146 2.6 0.214 28.7 31.8 1.103 0.111 0.130 0.241 1.18 28%
25.5 17.0 5.6 0.255 2.8 0.202 24.6 27.7 1.212 0.127 0.138 0.265 1.24 38%
37.5 27.3 12.1 0.045 2.6 0.195 23.7 26.3 2.906 0.248 0.243 0.491 1.25 35%
43.9 32.9 6.4 -0.094 2.6 0.197 22.5 24.2 1.714 0.228 0.257 0.485 1.11 25%
49.5 38.2 5.6 0.027 2.6 0.197 19.9 23.6 1.497 0.174 0.283 0.457 1.33 19%
55.3 43.6 5.8 0.275 2.9 0.195 16.6 23.9 1.559 0.124 0.328 0.452 1.61 17%
70.0 57.3 14.7 0.252 2.5 0.177 13.5 23.6 3.427 0.212 0.422 0.634 1.61 19%
76.0 62.6 6.0 0.316 2.7 0.169 11.5 23.5 1.689 0.212 0.441 0.653 1.52 27%
81.3 67.2 5.3 0.331 2.7 0.164 10.4 22.8 1.570 0.188 0.420 0.608 1.76 32%
86.4 71.6 5.2 0.425 2.8 0.161 9.9 22.0 1.619 0.161 0.440 0.601 2.16 33%
96.6 80.6 10.2 0.585 2.6 0.168 9.6 21.8 3.997 0.258 0.550 0.808 2.32 37%
100.9 83.6 4.3 0.484 2.7 0.172 9.1 21.9 1.953 0.224 0.649 0.873 2.12 38%
104.7 86.3 3.8 0.393 2.7 0.175 8.9 22.0 1.797 0.222 0.598 0.820 2.30 37%
108.3 88.8 3.6 0.461 2.8 0.175 9.0 22.5 1.672 0.220 0.661 0.881 2.80 35%
116.8 95.8 8.6 0.627 2.6 0.175 9.0 23.0 4.429 0.303 0.771 1.074 3.13 33%
121.3 98.6 4.5 0.546 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 2.246 0.270 0.815 1.085 2.84 32%
125.3 101.0 3.9 0.500 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 2.066 0.268 0.764 1.032 2.98 32%
iPod market
129.1 103.3 3.8 0.565 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 1.952 0.267 0.827 1.094 3.59 31%
20
137.3 109.5 8.2 0.725 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 4.946 0.350 0.933 200 1.283 10.0%
4.11 31%
142.5 112.4 5.1 0.643 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 2.630 0.317 0.981 1.299 3.71 30%
146.9
15 114.8 4.5 0.597 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 2.418 0.317 0.933 150 1.249 3.82
7.5%30%
151.4 117.2 4.5 0.662 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 2.312 0.317 0.999 1.316 4.54 29%
160.0 123.2 8.7 0.820 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 5.568 0.401 1.108 1.509 5.26 28%
10
166.2 126.4 6.1 0.739 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 3.124 0.371 1.162 100 1.533 5.0%
4.74 28%
171.5 129.1 5.4 0.694 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 2.870 0.372 1.119 1.491 4.82 27%
177.0
5 131.8 5.4 0.760 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 2.771 0.374 1.192 50 1.566 5.66
2.5%27%
186.7 138.1 9.7 0.921 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 6.316 0.461 1.308 1.769 6.60 26%
194.1 141.8 7.5 0.842 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 3.749 0.434 1.371 1.804 5.97 26%
0
200.8 144.9 6.7 0.799 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 3.443 0.438 1.336 01.774 0.0%
6.00 25%
D J D148.2
207.5 J D J 6.7 D J 0.869
D J D 2.7 J D0.175
J D J 9.0
D J 23.0
1 J D J D0.443
3.348 J D 1.418
J 1 1.861 6.98 25%D J S M S AJ S M
e u e155.2
218.7 u e 11.2
u e u 1.033
e u e 2.7 u e0.175
u e u 9.0
e u 23.0
2 u e u e0.533
7.215 u e 1.545
u 2 2.078 8.16 24%e u e a e p ue a
c n c159.5
228.0 n c l 9.2 c n 0.958
c n c 2.7 n c0.175
n c n 9.0
c n 23.0
/ n c n c0.510
4.533 n c 1.619
n / 2.129 7.40 24%c np r p r l p r
236.3 163.4 8.3 0.919 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 4.163 0.518 1.596 2.114 7.40 24%
244.7 iPod
167.4inst 8.4
base 0.993
iPod switch
2.7 0.175 New
9.0 iPod
23.0usrs
4.071 Switch CPU
0.527 1.689 2.216 8.53 23%Mac inst base
257.9 175.2 13.2 base 2.7 0.175
1.162 9.0 23.0 8.294 units
0.621 1.831 2.452 9.97 23%
269.3 180.6 11.4 1.093 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 5.508 0.603 1.920 2.522 9.09 23%
279.7 185.3 10.4 1.059 2.7Music0.175 $$ 9.0 23.0 5.063 0.616 1.910 2.526 9.05 22%
290.1
50 190.2 10.4 1.138 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 4.972 0.629 2.018 .500 2.647 10.35
120 22%
305.9
40 199.2 15.7 1.314 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 9.591 0.729 2.178 .400 2.907 12.08
100 22%
320.0 205.7 14.1 1.251 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 6.714 0.717 2.285 3.001 11.06 22%
30 80
333.0 211.5 13.0 1.224 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 6.181 0.735 2.293 .300 3.028 11.00 21%
20
346.0 217.5 13.0 1.309 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 6.091 0.755 2.419 .200 60 21%
3.174 12.49
364.8
10 227.9 18.8 1.495 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 11.152 0.861 2.601 .100 40 21%
3.463 14.55
0 .000 20
D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J 1 J D J D J D J 1 0
e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u 2 u e u e u e u 2 D J S M S AJ S M S
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n / n c n c n c n / e ue a e p ue a e
c np r p r l p r p
iPod AUP accs /user /year iTMS /user
50 .500 120
40 .400 100
30 .300 80
20 .200 60
10 .100 40
382.3
0 235.8 17.4 1.440 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 8.202 0.857 2.730 .000
3.587 13.39
20 21%
398.4 243.0 16.1 1.419 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 7.568 0.883 2.760 3.642 13.30
0 21%
D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J 1 J D J D J D J 1
414.5 250.2 16.2 1.513 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 7.480 0.909 2.909 3.818 15.00 21%
e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u 2 u e u e u e u 2 D J S M S AJ S M S
437.2 262.2 22.7 1.709 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 13.035 1.024 3.118 4.143 17.42 20%
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n / n c n c n c n / e ue a e p ue a e
458.7 271.9 21.5 1.663 2.7 0.175 9.0 23.0 10.036 1.029 3.274 4.303 16.12 20%
c np r p r l p r p
iPod AUP accs /user /year iTMS /user
/year Mac C
 PC Mac Mac Mac New Mac Mac prfls SW Mac Mac
PC CPU inst iPod Market 1y halo to life CPU /usr /usr CPU prfls SW Tot
CPUs grw base inst bs share % Mac cycl AUP /yr /yr rev rev rev rev
43.3 15% 15.2 1.4 2.1% 0.1 5.0 1.505 52.0 46.5 1.269 0.222 0.212 2.006
40.1 18% 15.2 1.8 2.0% 0.0 5.0 1.506 55.3 48.2 1.160 0.238 0.187 1.909
40.0 18% 15.3 2.2 2.0% 0.1 5.0 1.509 58.5 51.2 1.263 0.219 0.210 2.014
44.6 12% 15.4 3.0 2.0% 0.0 5.0 1.496 62.2 53.8 1.231 0.271 0.213 2.350
48.9 13% 15.7 4.3 2.0% 5.0% 0.3 5.0 1.500 65.7 53.4 1.605 0.284 0.213 3.490
45.2 13% 16.0 5.8 2.1% 8.1% 0.4 5.0 1.461 67.5 56.1 1.494 0.280 0.239 3.243
47.3 18% 16.4 7.3 2.2% 6.8% 0.4 5.0 1.426 69.3 63.6 1.565 0.266 0.345 3.520
52.3 17% 16.9 8.5 2.3% 6.8% 0.4 5.1 1.384 69.3 67.1 1.611 0.296 0.294 3.678
56.6 16% 17.3 10.3 2.4% 4.1% 0.5 5.1 1.348 68.7 72.2 1.724 0.303 0.325 5.749
50.9 13% 17.6 11.0 2.3% 1.6% 0.3 5.1 1.353 66.2 75.5 1.572 0.264 0.324 4.359
52.0 10% 18.1 11.3 2.3% 0.8% 0.5 5.1 1.374 62.9 71.9 1.866 0.236 0.314 4.370
56.5 8% 18.8 11.8 2.5% 0.7% 0.7 5.1 1.391 61.2 71.2 2.213 0.297 0.316 4.837
61.1 8% 19.5 12.7 2.6% 1.1% 0.7 5.0 1.425 59.0 70.2 2.410 0.297 0.347 7.115
55.0 8% 20.2 13.4 2.7% 1.7% 0.7 5.1 1.445 59.4 69.0 2.268 0.309 0.345 5.264
56.2 8% 21.0 14.1 2.8% 2.0% 0.8 5.1 1.451 60.9 70.0 2.533 0.308 0.386 5.410
61.0 8% 22.2 14.9 3.0% 2.0% 1.1 5.1 1.463 60.8 72.7 3.103 0.346 0.430 6.217
66.0 8% 23.4 16.1 3.3% 2.3% 1.3 5.1 1.476 62.0 82.4 3.552 0.382 0.628 9.608
59.4 8% 24.6 17.3 3.5% 2.3% 1.1 5.1 1.480 62.0 79.0 3.199 0.378 0.358 7.180
60.7 8% 25.8 18.4 3.6% 2.2% 1.2 5.1 1.480 62.5 77.0 3.324 0.394 0.432 7.3
65.9 8% 27.3 19.4 3.8% 2.1% 1.6 5.1 1.480 62.5 76.0 4.042 0.427 0.504 8.3
71.3 8% 29.2 21.0 4.0% 2.1% 1.9 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 4.754 0.472 0.710 12.4
64.2 8% 30.8 22.7 4.2% 2.0% 1.6 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 4.258 0.475 0.474 9.7
65.5 8% 32.5 24.2 4.4% 2.0% 1.6 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 4.336 0.498 0.557 9.8
Mac market
71.1 8% 34.5 25.7 4.6% 2.0% 2.0 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 5.210 0.539 0.639 11.0
10.0% 77.0 8% 37.0 27.8 4.9% 2.0% 2.5 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 806.198 0.593 0.856 15.5
69.3 8% 39.2 30.1 5.1% 2.0% 2.2 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 5.546 0.605 0.631 12.5
7.5% 70.8 8% 41.3 32.1 5.3% 2.0% 2.2 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 605.572 0.636 0.723 12.5
76.8 8% 43.9 34.2 5.5% 2.0% 2.6 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 6.614 0.686 0.815 13.8
83.1 8% 47.0 36.8 5.8% 2.0% 3.1 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 7.898 0.751 1.045 18.9
5.0% 74.8 8% 49.8 39.8 6.0% 2.0% 2.8 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 407.079 0.772 0.831 15.6
76.5 8% 52.6 42.5 6.2% 2.0% 2.7 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 7.051 0.812 0.934 15.5
2.5% 83.0 8% 55.8 45.2 6.5% 2.0% 3.2 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 208.276 0.871 1.038 17.0
89.8 8% 59.7 48.5 6.7% 2.0% 3.9 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 9.883 0.948 1.282 22.8
80.8 8% 63.1 52.4 7.0% 2.0% 3.5 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 8.887 0.980 1.080 19.3
0.0% 82.6 8% 66.5 55.9 7.2% 2.0% 3.4 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 0 8.804 1.030 1.196 19.2
D JS M S8%
89.6 A J S70.4
M S M59.3
S M S7.5%M S M S M 3.9
2.0% S 1 J5.1S M1.480
S M 62.5
S M S75.01A 10.232 1.100 1.312 20.9
e u e96.9
a e8% p ue75.1
a e a 63.6
e a e7.7%a e a2.0%e a 4.7
e 2 u5.1e a1.480
e a 62.5
e a e75.02p 12.192 1.189 1.572 27.5
c n p87.3
r p8% r l p79.4
r p r 68.4
p r p8.0%r p r2.0%p r 4.2
p / n5.1p r1.480
p r 62.5
p r p75.0/ r 11.011 1.234 1.384 23.7
89.2 8% 83.5 72.9 8.2% 2.0% 4.1 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 10.875 1.296 1.514 23.6
Mac96.8
inst base
8% 88.2 Mac77.3
iPod inst
8.5%bs Mac Market
2.0% 4.7 5.1 1.480 1y halo
62.5 % 75.0 12.528 1.378 1.645 25.6
104.7 8% 93.8 82.7 8.8% share 5.6 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 14.878 1.481 1.921 33.0
2.0%
94.3 8% 98.9 88.7 9.1% 2.0% 5.1 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 13.505 1.539 1.751 29.0
96.3 8% 103.9 94.4 Mac9.3%$$ 2.0% 5.0 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 13.317 1.614 1.896 28.8
120 104.5 8% 109.5 100.0 9.6% 2.0% 5.6 5.2 1.480 62.5 75.0 1.60015.222 1.710 2.045 31.2
100 113.1 8% 116.1 106.7 9.9% 2.0% 6.6 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0
1.50018.004 1.830 2.340 39.5
101.8 8% 122.2 114.3 10.2% 2.0% 6.1 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 16.433 1.903 2.188 35.3
80 1.400
104.0 8% 128.2 121.4 10.5% 2.0% 6.0 5.2 1.480 62.5 75.0 16.200 1.994 2.352 35.1
60 112.9 8% 134.8 128.5 10.8% 2.0% 6.7 5.2 1.480 62.5 75.0 1.30018.385 2.106 2.520 37.8
40 122.1 8% 142.6 137.0 11.1% 2.0% 7.8 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 1.20021.647 2.244 2.837 47.2
20 1.100
0 1.000
D J S M S A J S M S M S M S M S M S M S 1 J S M S M S M S 1A
e ue a e p ue a e a e a e a e a e a e 2 ue a e a e a e 2p
c np r p r l p r p r p r p r p r p r p / np r p r p r p / r
120 1.600
100 1.500
80 1.400
60 1.300
40 1.200
20 110.0 8% 149.9 146.4 11.5% 2.0% 7.2 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 19.873
1.100 2.335 2.707 42.9
0 112.3 8% 157.0 155.4 11.7% 2.0% 7.1 5.2 1.480 62.5 75.0 19.603
1.000 2.444 2.892 42.6
121.9 8% 164.9 164.4 12.1% 2.0% 7.9 5.2 1.480 62.5 75.0 22.103 2.576 3.083 45.8
D J S M S AJ S M S M S M S M S M S M S1 J S M S M S M S 1A
131.9 8% 174.0 175.0 12.4% 2.0% 9.2 5.1 1.480 62.5 75.0 25.898 2.735 3.426 56.3
e ue a e p ue a e a e a e a e a e a e 2 ue a e a e a e 2p
118.8 8% 182.6 186.8 12.8% 2.0% 8.6 5.2 1.480 62.5 75.0 23.920 2.847 3.321 51.9
c np r p r l p r p r p r p r p r p r p / np r p r p r p/ r

Mac CPU AUP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr

Products Comments
PC iTMS 43.33
iPod mini

4G iPod
All unit numbers in millions
iPod shuffle $ revenue in billions
$ unit prices in thousands
iPod nano
5G iPod/TV series
Intel Macs/Hi-Fi
MacBook
Mac Pro/movies Assumptions/definitions
Shuffle 2 Halo effect starts in F04 CPUs from F03 PC iPods
iTV Switch CPU units = CPUs beyond industry growth
iPhone Halo% = ttm switch CPU units / iPod switch base
iTouch
Leopard iPod installed base / Replacement cycles:
Installed base increase (new usrs) = iPods sold - iPods replaced
iPods replaced = previous installed base / avg life cycle
2 year initial life cycle

iPod switch base:

1st year (03) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/5 CPU share
2nd year (04) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/4 CPU share
3rd year (05) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/2 CPU share
Beyond 3rd year (>05) new iPod users PC/Mac share = 3/4 CPU share

iPod future sales:

60.6MM iPod units in next 12m
Beyond 12m iPod unit growth based on CPU unit growth + rev.halo
10MM iPhone units in C08

Unit prices / Revenues:

Other music revenue (iTMS, accessories) attached to iPod units
Other revenue (software, peripherals) attached to CPU units

CPU industry / Market share:

2.1% pre-halo CPU market share
15M pre-halo Mac installed base
Historical industry unit growth from IDC
8% future industry unit growth