PLANNING PREMISES

O Cne of Lhe essenLlal and ofLen overlooked sLeps ln effecLlve and

coordlnaLed plannlng ls remlslng

O lannlng remlses are Lhe anLlclpaLed envlronmenLs ln whlch Lhe plans
are expecLed Lo operaLe

O lannlng premlses lnclude assumpLlons or forecasLs of Lhe fuLure and
known condlLlons LhaL wlll affecL Lhe course of Lhe plans

O remlslng ls recognlLlon LhaL plans operaLe ln an envlronmenL boLh
lnLernal and exLernal Lo Lhe enLerprlse

O L Lhus emphaslzes Lhe long known facL LhaL managemenL ls an open
sysLem approach

O L ls noL enoughfor Lhe Manager Lo be responslve Lo Lhe presenL
envlronmenL

O s lans operaLe ln Lhe fuLure an effecLlve manager should anLlclpaLe
Lhe envlronmenL ln whlch hls plan wlll operaLe and forecasL Lhose
elemenLs ln Lhe envlronmenL whlch wlll affecL hls plans Lg Changes ln
1echnology Soclal condlLlons ollLlcal facLors eLc

O L ls someLlmes sald Lhe successful manager ls noL one who [usL
responds Lo changes as Lhey occur buL one who wlll raLher forecasL
change

O L ls ofLen also sald LhaL a successful manager ls noL one who dances Lo
oLhers Lunes buL makes oLhers Lo dance Lo hls Lunes by hls ablllLy Lo
foresee changes ln Lhe envlronmenL much before Lhey occur

O 1hls does noL mean LhaL everyLhlng can be predlcLed

O 1here are ln addlLlon shorL and long range Lconomlc 1echnologlcal
Soclal and ollLlcal and even eLhlcal changes LhaL wlll affecL whaL wlll or
can be done ln Lhe near or far fuLure

lannlng remlses dependlng on Lhe degree of redlcLablllLy




CulLe redlcLable 8easonably redlcLable unpredlcLable
Lg opulaLlon CrowLh Lg rlce Levels Lg SepLember ll
Cross naLlonal roducL changes opulaLlon ShlfL and LLack on W1C
CerLaln 1echnologlcal War on raq LLc



1ypes of lannlng remlses

LxLernal remlses



Ceneral LnvlronmenL roducL MarkeL lacLor MarkeL





Lconomlc 1echnologlcal Soclal ollLlcal


nLernal remlses are Lhose whlch are absoluLely under Lhe conLrol of
managemenL llke lnvesLmenL ln planL and machlnery lnvenLory eLc





1anglble nLanglble
Whlch can be quanLlfled whlch cannoL be quanLlfled
and seen or felL



0700 of cont7ollability



unconLrollable Seml ConLrollable ConLrollable Lg
CrowLh of opulaLlon Lg llrm ssumpLlons of Largely declded
luLure prlce levels ollLlcal Lhe share of Lhe markeL 8y company
LnvlronmenL 8uslnessCycles 1ype of Labour 1urnover ManagemenL


%yp08 of Fo70ca8tin

Lconomlc lorecasLlng

O lalrly rellable economlc premlses can be obLalned from Lhe forecasLs of
employmenL producLlvlLy naLlonal lncome and gross naLlonal lncome
LhaL are avallable Lo Lhe planners

O MosL economlc forecasLs are derlved from calculaLlng gross naLlonal
producL

O Cross naLlonal producL ls calculaLed by forecasLlng populaLlon
producLlvlLy lncreases and unemploymenL percenLage and average
workweek avallable

O 8uL problems occur ln esLlmaLlng such componenLs of Cn and
governmenL purchases personal consumpLlon expendlLures buslness
flxed and lnvenLory lnvesLmenLs resldenLlal consLrucLlon and oLher
lnvesLmenLs

O fLer sLudylng broad forecasLs of naLlonal and reglonal economlc Lrends
a company should LranslaLe Lhem lnLo Lhelr lmpacL on lLs lndusLry and
on lLself

O 1hls requlres Lwo baslc esLlmaLlng procedures Cne ls Lhe '1opuown
procedure' and Lhe oLher ls Lhe '8oLLomup rocedure'



1echno|og|ca| Iorecast|ng

O Cne of Lhe more lnLeresLlng aspecLs of premlslng ln Lhe recenL years ls
Lhe keen lnLeresL belng shown on Lhe 1echnologlcal lorecasLlng

O Slnce Lhe pace of 1echnologlcal changes are so rapld and drasLlcally
affecLlng Lhe producLs and processes of several flrms Lhe flrms are
emphaslzlng more on regular and compleLe 1echnologlcal forecasLs
affecLlng Lhelr lndusLry Lg 8aLe of producL obsolesces ls very hlgh ln
sofLware lndusLry and ln sLeel where Lhe cosL of producLlon per Lonne of
sLeel has drasLlcally come down by ralslng Lhe approprlaLe Lechnology

The Following are some oI the commonly used methods Ior Iorecasting
technological changes:

CpporLunlLy CrlenLed 1echnlques

O 1hls 1echnlque looks aL Lhe fuLure and ralses Lhe quesLlon as Lo
wheLher a cerLaln producL may be made obsoleLe by a new
developmenL

O f yes ls Lhere any 1echnologlcal breakLhrough LhaL mlghL be expecLed
whlch would solve a problem seen Lo exlsL ln Lhe developmenL of a
cerLaln producL Lg vC8 has become obsoleLe wlLh Lhe advenL of vCu
and uvu Slmllarly LradlLlonal cameras are on decllne wlLh Lhe advenL
of ulglLal Cameras

O Cne mlghL forecasL when lL would be posslble Lo economlcally
desallnaLe Lhe seawaLer Lo overcome Lhe drlnklng waLer problem

Coal CrlenLed 1echnlque

O n Lhls case a declslon ls made Lo reach a cerLaln goal and Lhen analysls
ls made Lo ldenLlfy Lhe Lechnologlcal needs requlred Lo achleve Lhe goal
Lg 1he uS decldlng Lo puL Lhe man onLo Lhe moon ln 1970





uelphl 1echnlque

Soclal and pollLlcal lorecasLlng

O 1hls has become lncreaslngly relevanL and lmporLanL wlLh Lhe process
of LC

O f Mcuonald wanLs Lo lnLroduce lLs producL ln Lhe Musllm counLrles lL
has Lo Lhlnk Lwlce abouL lL because Lhe culLure doesnL allow Lhe people
Lo consume pork

O Slmllarly pollLlcal facLors also have a slgnlflcanL lmpacL on Lhe
commerclal pollcles llke Lhe labor laws lncome Lax pollcles eLc

Sales lorecasL

O Cne of Lhe ma[or plannlng premlses ln Lhe Lyplcal buslness enLerprlse ls
Lhe sale forecasL

O Sales forecasL ls very lmporLanL because lL seLs Lhe framework on whlch
mosL lnLernal plans are consLrucLed and lL musL be regarded as Lhe
domlnanL lannlng remlse of an LnLerprlse


ethods oI Sales Forecasting




!ury
of LxecuLlve Sales lorce users LxpecLaLlon users ro[ecLlon SLaLlsLlcal
Cplnlon MeLhod ComposlLe MeLhod of asL sales MeLhods