Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 169

Prospects for

International
R e l a t i o n s

2012

ISSN 2005-8691

11-1260000-000448-10

2012

2012

2012 1 6
2012 1 6

2572
3497-7600
575-5245
http://www.ifans.go.kr

Tel. 2267-3956

, 2012

2012


2012 , , Post-
,
. , , ,
,
. , G8,
G20, BRICS
,
. ,
. ,

. , ,
.
,
.
,
,
. ,

. 2012 3

.
,
, ,

.


, 2012
.
.
,
, ,
, ,
.
2012 1



| 2012 7
1. _19
2. _20
3. _21
4. _22
5. _24
6. _25
7. _26

|
1. : _31
. _31
. _33
. _34

2. : _37
. _37
. , _39
. _40
. 6 3 _41

|
1. : _45
. _46
. _48
. 6 _49

2. : _50
. _50
. _51
. _52
. _53
. 6 _54

3. : 5 _55
. 5 _55
. _56
. _57
. : _59
. _60
. 20 _61
. _62

4. : _63
. _63
. _64
. _65
. _67

2012

5. : _69
. _69
. _70
. CIS _71
. _72
. APEC _73
. _74

|
1. : _79
. _79
. _81
. _85
. _87

2. : _88
. _88
. EU _90
. _91

3. : _93
. _93
. _96
. _98

4. : _99
. _99
. _100
. _102
. (Great Game) _103
. _104
. 20 _105

5. : _106
. _106
. _107
. () _108
. 6% _109

6. : _111
. _111
. _113
. _114
. _115

7. : _117
. _117
. _118
. TPP _118

2012

|
1. _123
. _123
. G8 G20 _124
. _125

2. : , IMF SDR _126


. _126
. _128
. IMF _129

3. WTO/DDA FTA _131


. WTO/DDA _131
. FTA : FTA _132

4. : _136
. _136
. _138
. _138
. _139

5. _140
. _140
. _142
. _143

2012 7

2012 ,

.
,
. , DDA
.
.
,
.


2012 (process)
.
,
(wag the dog) ,

2012

.
,

() ,

.

.
(coalition of value) (coalition of
interest) .

. 2012 3
.


2012
.
Post-
.
,
,
.

.


2012 , , ,
.


(re-engagement)

.
.
.


2012 .
BRICS
. 2012
. 2012
.
,
(TPP)
. , 3 , FTA
. +3 (EAFTA)
TPP .


2012
,
.
2012
,
. ,
,
.

2012

2012

.
, .


2012 .

. ,
.
,
,
.
.



2012
.
,
.

.

.

2012

. ,
. .

2012
5.24
. , 5.24
.

.
,

. , 2011
, ,
.
2012
. ,
. 6

, .
2012
.


2012
, .
. 1~2

2012

.
,

. ,
.

.
,
. 2012
,
. ,

. ,
.

,
2012 ,
,
.
.
IT CNC ,
.
6
. 6
. ,
. ,
.

,
.

6 3
2012 6 ,
. 6
, 6

.

.
, 2012 2013
. ,

.



2012
. ,
.

.

.

2012

,
. , , ,

.
,
. 6
, .


2012 .
, , ,
,

. TPP
.
2012
.
,
. ,
. 2012
(EDPC)
.

5
2012
.
.

2012
4 5 .


.
, ,
.

. ,
.
.
20 ,
/ FTA .


2012 ,
, ,
.
,
, 2012 ,
.

. , , ,
2012

. 2012
,
.

2012

2011 12
, 2012 3

.
. ,
, ,
.
2012 ,
.
, 2012 WTO
. , 2012
CIS .
2012 .
,
MD , .
6 ,

. ,
.


(ASEAN)
2012 ,
. 2011 (EAS)
.
.

10

.
.

, ,
. ,
. ,
, 2012 ,
.


2010 2012
. ,

.
,
.
2012 (ESM)
EU .
2012
.


2012
. , ,
, , 2012
.
,
, NATO EU

2012

11

. ,

, 2012
.


2012 10
.
,
. ,
.

. ,
,
.



2008 ,
,
.
.
G2 ,
. 2012
, EU
, .
G-X

12

, .
G-X G7/G8 G20 ,

.
.

: , IMF SDR
2010 2012
. 2012

. , 2012
, .

.
2012 ,
.
2011 G20 IMF (SDR)
, SDR
.
. 2012
.
2012 IMF IMF
. 2010
G20 2013 , 2015
5 15 (General Quota Review) 2
2014 1 . 2012
.

2012

13

WTO/DDA FTA

2012 , WTO
DDA .

DDA 2013 12 9
.
2012 WTO/DDA WTO
. , (single undertaking)
.
,
(PTA) .
TPP 2012 1
3 .
TPP 2012 . ,
2012 TPP , / FTA
. / FTA
.
, 2012 EU, , , (MERCOSUR) FTA
, FTA
.


2011 11 17 (COP)
2013 5 8
. EU
2 .
2012 .

14

, 2020
. , 2020

. 2020
,
.
,
(GCF) .
1,000
, ,
.
, EU ,
,
,
, .


2012 ,
.
,
, .
IAEA (NGOs)
. , 2013
,
.
,
2012 . ,
(UEP)

2012

15

NPT .

(nuclear safety) 2012


(nuclear security) .

,
.
. 2012

.

16

2012 7

| 2012 7

1.
2012 , , , ,
,
.
, .
,
.

. (global public
goods) (particular national interest) ,
.
, (DDA: Doha Development Agenda)
,
.

.

.

2012

19


. ,
,
.

2.
2012 (process)
. ,
,
(wag the dog) . ,
,
. ()
. 2012
.
,
. ,
.
.
2012

.
.

.
.
, G8

20

2012 7

, G20, BRICS
.
, .
.
,
. 2012 3

, .

,
(minilateral) .

(coalition of value) (coalition
of interest) .

3.
2012
, ,
. Post-

.
, ,
.
,
.
1 .

2012

21

,
. (
, ) ,
. ,
.

. ,

.
Post-
.
,
.

.


. ,
. ,
.
.

4.
2012 , , ,
.
, (re-engagement)
.

22

2012 7


.
.
2012 .
(Barack Obama) 2012

.
2011 (TPP: Trans-Pacific strategic
economic Partnership) (FTA: Free
Trade Agreement) . 2012 TPP
.

. , , ,
. ,
. ,
2011 (Darwin)
.
2011 12 .
. 2011
(EAS: East Asia Summit) TPP
+3
.
2012
. TPP
FTA, FTA .

2012

23

+3 . ,
(ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian
Nations) - FTA FTA
.

. 2011 .

2011 12 2012

. 2012

.

.

5.
2012 .
.
2011
2012 . 2011 11
.
,
. , 2011
EAS . BRICS
.
2012 .
2012
.

24

2012 7

, 2012 3 FTA FTA


.
FTA . ,
, ASEAN FTA 2011 9
27 3 , 3 FTA
. ,

TPP 8(, , , , ,

, , ) . , ,
TPP .
G2
, . , +3
(EAFTA: East Asian Free Trade Area) TPP
.

6.
2012
. 2008
,
. , 2012 , , ,

.
2012

. 2011 , 2012
.

2012

25

. ,
.
2012
. 2011 12 (EU: European Union)
(ESM: European Stability Mechanism)

2012 . ,

. ,
.
2012
.
, , .
(Real) ,
.
2012 , EU ,
.
2012
.
, .

7.
2012 .
2012
. , (Muammar Gaddafi)
,
. 2011 11

26

2012 7

.
.
, 2011 11 (IAEA: International Atomic Energy
Agency) ,
.
, .

, 2012

. ,

4,000
.
. ,
(R2P: Responsibility to Protect) .
, (Al Qaeda)
.
.
.

2012

27

1. :


2012
.
,
.
2011 12 17 3
. 3

. 10
, 12 29
. 12 30
, ()
. 2012 1 1
3
.

2012

31

2012 100, 70, 30


.
,
.
,
.
2012
.
,

. ,


2012
.


.
2
, 2011 ,
, .

. , 6

. , ,

32

, .
2012
. 2012

. , 2012
.

.
.
(FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization) 2011 11

, 2011

4.8% 440 .

100 ,
.
.

.
2011 , ,
. 2012
,
.
,
6 .
2010
9.11 (2001) .
,
. ,

2012

33

,
, 6
, 5
.
,
, , 5.24 ,
, ,
.
.

2011

.


.

2012
. ,
. 2012
,
.

.

5.24
(2010) .

34

, ,
. 2012 5.24 .

5.24 . 2011
5.24
,
.
,

. , 2011

, ,

, .

.
,
.
, 2004 ,
.
. 2011 123 4
8 , 10 .
2011
, ,
.
.

2012

35


2012
. 2008
2015 750 30
.
,
2011 .
2011 8 (Dmitry Medvedev)
, , 3

3 . 8 24

.
,
, .
,
.

.
.
.

.
, 1
. ,
,

.

36

6
,
2012
.

2. :
.
2011 12
.
. 2012
. 2012
,
.
. 1~2

.
, ,

, , ,
,
.
3 , 3 3
. , ,
(, ) (, )
,

2012

37

. , 1~2
3 .
, .
3
.
20 (1994)
.
4
. ,

.

, 2012
. ,

.
(, ) (, , )
.

, . ,
.

,
.
.
,

38

. 2012
,

. ,
.
.

. ,
2012 ,
,
.
.
IT CNC ,
.
,
. ,
,
.
1998
, 2012
. 100
2012 ,
.
, 4
.
, 2012
.

2012

39


,
(downward spiral) .
,
. 1990
,
.

.

()

. 2012 ,

.
2012
. 1994 1
,
6 . 6
.
, . 1994
,
.
. , 17
2
() ,
.
.

40

,
. ,

.
.
.
.

.
, 6

. 6 3
2012 6 ,
. 6
, 6

.
6 ,

. 3
,
. ,

3 .

2012

41

.
,
2012 2013
.
. ,
.

42

1. :

,
.
, , ,

.
2012
,
.
,
. ,

. 6 ,
.

2012

45

.
2011
. 2012
.
.

.
2011 .
2010
. , 2011

.

, , , () ,

. ,
.
2011 . 2010

.
(Air-Sea Battle)
,
. ,
, ,
. ,
(EAS: East Asia Summit), (APEC:
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)
.

46

2012
. ,

.
. , ,

.
2012
. ,
.
2012
. ,
.

2012

.
.

.

(relative gain) .
. 2012
.

.
.

2012

47

.

. ,
. 2012
. , ,

.
, .
2010 ()
. 2011

. , () (TPP: Trans-Pacific

strategic economic Partnership) ,


. 2012
.
()
. , (TMD: Theater Missile
Defense) ,
.
3 , ,
(FTA: Free Trade Agreement) TPP
.
,
.

, 2012
. ,

48

.
.


. , (Barack Obama)
(engagement) . 2012
.
,
. 2012
,

. , ,

. 6


(UEP: Uranium Enrichment Program),
() 2012 .
,
6
.
UEP ,
6 .
, ,
(IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency) ,
UEP .

2012

49

,
. 2012

, 6
. UEP
.
3 .
2012 6
.
. ,
.
.

2012 . ,

. ,

. UEP

.

2. :
.
2012
. 9%
,

50

. , 2010 ,
,
.
2012
. ,
, , 3
. , , (Osama
Bin Laden) .

. ,
.

2012


.

. 2011
, 9% ,
.
3,500 2 .

.
2010 5 2
, 2012
. , (Bill Clinton)

2012

51

, (TPA: Trade
Promotion Authority)
.
TPP .
TPP
. 2011 12 , ,
TPP , . TPP
.

.
2012
. 2009

(strategic reassurance)
. 2010 ,
. (Hillary Clinton)
(forward-deployed diplomacy) , 2011 11
Foreign Policy .
.
. 2012
.
,
. (George Bush)

.
,
.
2012 . ,

52


. , ,
. ,
. (Leon Panetta) 2011 10
2010
.
,
. 2012
, TPP
.

.
2012
. 2011 11
. 2009 6
.
,
, ,
. 2011 FTA ,
.
2011 10 43 (SCM: ROKU.S. Security Consultative Meeting)
, .
(EDPC: Extended Deterrence Policy Committee)

. , 2015 2015
.

2012

53

, 2016
.
EDPC

. , , ,
(MD: Missile Defense) ,
, ,
.
, 2012
. MD , 2012
MD 107 . MD
.
,

. EDPC

,
. ,
.

. 6
2012 6 .
2012 ,
.
2012 , 6
.
,
6 .

54


. 2010 6
, .
2011

,
.
, 6 2012
, .
UEP . UEP
, , 6
. 6 UEP
, . , 9.19
UEP

3. : 5
. 5
2012 () ()
4 5
. 5 2011 . 2011
10 17 6 (17 6)
2012 18 (18 ) .
6 18 .
18 18 1 (18 1) 2012

2012

55

10 . 2012 8 17
7 (17 7) . 17
10 18 , , ()
. 17 7 10
.
5 () (
) . 18
18 1 , (),
(), (), (), (), ()
.
.
,
. 2012

.
.

. ,
.

.
2012 .

, 9%
.
, .

56


.

. 2011 .
.
.

.
,
.
2008
.
2011.

2012
.
.
,
. ,
2011 ,
.

.
2012 125
.

2012

57

, , ,
.
,
, . 2011
2 3 , , ,
. 2011

.
2012
.
.

.

2012

. , (, )
()
. , (Dharam
Shala) 2011 (Lobsang
Sangay) . (Dalai Lama)
.

.
. ,
.
.

58

. :
2012
. ,
.
. , , ,
, . , ,
. 2012
.
, TPP , ,

. , (S&ED: Strategic and Economic
Dialogue), 2011 1
(China-U.S. Consultation on the Asia-Pacific Region)

. 2012
.

.
.
.
, , ,
, . 2011 10
.
.

.

2012

59


.
.

.
2012 () .
2009 2010
. , 2012
5
.
() .
2012

.
.
.
2012 , ,
.

.
. ,
. ,

.

. ()
. ,
()

60

.
()
.

.

. 20
2012 20 ,
.
. FTA
. TPP
TPP TPP
.

TPP
FTA . FTA
. FTA
2012 20
.
2012 40 .
40 FTA FTA
.

. 20 , ,

.

2012

61

.
2011 12 2012
. 2012
.
5 .
.

. ,
. ,
.

. 2012 6

. , ,

2012 4
100 .

. 2012 4
, . 2012 5
18 9 .
18 18 1
, 2012 12 2013 .
.

. 2012
. ,
.

62

4. :
.
2012
3 9
.
2006 .
2011 9 ()
. 60% 3 20%
. ,
,
.
3 3.11 TPP
.
, .
TPP ,
. ,
() , , 2011
.
2012 .
GDP . ()
, 5%
2010 10% .
2012 1~3
, .
,
.

2012

63

, ()

.
, .

, ()
.
, , , 2012

.

2012 ,
. 3.11 ()
() ,
.
, 2010 4 2011 2
GDP .
2011 8 1 6060 ( 211 ) .
, ,
, , .
2011 7 , 2011 GDP
0.4% , 2012 2.9%
. 2011 8 98%
, ,
. , 2011 7
. 5 19

64

, .
, , ,
.
2011 9 54 11 ,
2012 5 .
,
() (75~77/) . ,

()
(M&A),
. ,
, , ()
.
, .

.
2012 , , , ,

. ()
,
.
2012
. 2010
, () ,
( 4 ) ,
.

2012

65


, .
, 3
. , , ,
,
. (ODA: Official Development Assistant)
1990 10 1 , 2012 1997
. (PKO: Peace Keeping
Operation) () .

. 1990 25%
( )
.

TPP , 3 ,
, PKO
.
. ()
, 2011
, (SOFA: Status of Forces
Agreement) . , EAS,
TPP TPP
,
.

() . 2012
. 2010 9 ()

66

,
. , ,
, , , , ,
, . ,
3
.

.

.
2011
, .
, 2012
. 4 12
, ,
.
,
.
2011
. , 3.11
, (6) (10)
5 , (9), (10),
(12)
. ,
.
. 2012
. 2010 924

2012

67

. 2011 1,000
. 2010 361
. .
() 3
.
() 2010 500
. 2012 3 / FTA
.
, .
21
.
. 2011
(3) .

. 2012 ,

, . ,
, (2011 8)
.
,
. 2012
3 .
,
,
.

68

5. :
.
(Vladimir Putin) 2011 9 24 (
) 2012 3 4
. , (Dmitry
Medvedev) 2012

. 2011 12 () ,
,
, ,
.
2011
.
.
,
.

.
80% 40~50%
2012 3 ,
5 - .
.
, 3
(2000, 2004, 2008) 2 .
, 12 4 ,
, , . ,

2012

69


(5 )
.

.
2011 4%
2012 . ,
,
. 2012
. , (WTO: World Trade Organization)

.

, , , WTO
.
(2000~2008) 7% GDP
, , , .
2009 2008 ,

. 2010~2011 5
, , , ,
, IT
.
2012 .
, ,
, , ,
, , . ,
, , ,

70


. 2011 12 WTO
, ,
.

. CIS
2011 11 ,
(EURASEC: Eurasian Economic Community)
(Eurasian Economic Union) .
2012 (CIS: Commonwealth
of Independent States) . ,
2012
,
.
, 2012 (CSTO: Collective Security
Treaty Organization) ,
(SCO: Shanghai Cooperation Organization)
CIS
. ,
.
CIS
,
. , CSTO
(NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
. CSTO 2006
. , ,
,

2012

71

CIS .
2010 7 ,
.
2011 11 3
. 3 2015 1
2012 1 3
. 3 1 6
, (EU: European Union)
.

.
2011

2012 .

2012
.
,
. 11
.

(New START: Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) , ,
,
. NATO MD
,
. , (
, ) , .

72

,
.
, ( , ) [APEC,
EAS, BRICS, SCO, (ASEM: Asia-Europe Meeting) ]
. ,

.
EU , 2011 1 EU
.
(PCA: Partnership and Cooperation Agreement) , 4
(The Common Space: , , ,
) , , (WTO: World Trade
Organization) .
2012 EU

, () 4
, 2011
. , 2010 (
4 ) . 2012 5

.

.

. APEC
2010~2011 ASEM EAS , 2013 G20
. 2012 9 8~9

2012

73

APEC , 3
2014
.
, ,
. , G8, G20, APEC,
BRICS, (OSCE: Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe) . ,
1993 WTO 2011 12 . , WTO
, G20 WTO
. , EU
( ) WTO .
.

.
2011
. 8 24 9 ,
11 2 .
, 6
2012 . , 2012

,
3 .
3 6

.
2008 9

74

. ,
,
. , 20
2011 .
2010 2011
.
, , , APEC
,
2011
. 2012 4 15

. , .
9
,

2012

75

1. :
.

2012 (ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations) , ,
()
. , ,
2011 .

.

.
,
. 2011
, 6
. ,
.

2012

79

.
2011 11 ,
+3 , (EAS: East Asia Summit)
. +3
, EAS
.
(APEC: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)
(TPP: Trans-Pacific strategic economic
Partnership) EAS

. , 2011

.


2012 ,


. ,
2011
. ,

.

.

.

80

.
.
.



. 2011 EAS
2012 .

.
.


.

. , 2011 +3
EAS
.

2 (EAVG II:

East Asian Vision Group II)

. EAVG II
,
.

.
2012
. 2011 , , ,

2012

81

.
.
.
.


2011 5 ,
(PAP: People's Action Party) . PAP 60%
, 87 81 . , 1~2
40% 6
. .
, (George Yeo)
.

.
(Lee Kuan Yew) PAP

.
, PAP
.

.

.
, , ,
. 1~2
.

82


(United Malays National Organization) 1957
. 1998 ,
,
.
. 2011 2.0(Bersih 2.0)
. 2003
(Mahathir Mohamad)
(Abdullah Badawai) .
2008 2/3
(Najib Razak)
. .
(Emergency rule),
(Internal Security Act) .

. , ,
.

. , 2012

,
.


2012 . 2011
,
. 2011

2012

83

.
(Thein Sein)
.
, . ,
(Aung San Suu Kyi)
.
.
, (Yangon)
.
, , , (EU: European Union)
. , 2011 12
56
.
, .
,
.
,

. ,


.
,
.

.

84

.

2012 ,
. 2015 , ,
3 (ASEAN Community)
.
(ASEAN Economic Community)
. (Single Market
and Production Base) , , , ,
. ,
,
.

,
. 1970 (PTA: Preferential Trading
Agreement) , 1990 (AFTA:
ASEAN Free Trade Area) (AIA: ASEAN Investment
Area) .
2003
. EU
. ,
.
6(, , , ,
, ) 99% .
, 4(, , , ) 98.6%
0~5% .
(National Single Window)

2012

85

(ASEAN Single Window) . 2009


(ASEAN Economic Community Scorecard)
, 73.6% . 2010
, 85% .


2015
. 1970

. 1990 , ,
, .
,
. ,

.
.
2015 ,

(ASEAN Connectivity)

.
2012
.
.
,
.
2015
.

86

.
2012 (Labor Party)
. 2011 (Julia Gillard)
. (Queensland)
.
(Treaty of
Raratonga) .
,
.
. 2010 (Green Party),
.
2011 (Liberal Party)
150
76 74 .
2012
.
,

(Kevin Rudd) .
2013
.
, 2012
. (John Key)
(National Party) 2011 11
121 60 .
ACT(Association of Consumers and Taxpayers)
(United Future)

2012

87

. , 34 . 2011
2012
.

2012
.
, ,
. 2011 EAS
,
.
2012
. ,
.

.

2. :

.
2010 2011 (Eurozone)
2012 .
. ,

.
2010
.

88


. ,
, ,
.

.
.
PIIGS(
) . 2 2
14 (Fine Gael)
. 6
. 11

(Silvio Berlusconi) . 19 EU
(Mario Monti)
.
. ,
(Borut Pahor) 9
12 4 .

(default) , 10 EU
(haircutting) 2
.
(George Papandreou) 2
, EU
. 11 9 ,
(ECB: European Central Bank) (Lucas
Papademos) (PASOK: Panhellenic Socialist Movement)
(ND: New Democratic Party) .

2012

89


.
PIIGS
. 2011 2012

.
,
.
,
. ,
. ,
.
,
.

. EU

2012 EU
EU .
2012 ,

.
2011 2010 EU
. 4 (True Finns)
200 39 .
EU
.

90

.
(PVV: Partij voor de Vrijheid)
(SaS: Sloboda a Solidarita) (EFSF:
European Financial Stability Facility)
EU . PVV
.
10 (Iveta Radicova) EFSF
EFSF
.
, 2012 3
. EU EU
.
2012
. PASOK ND
2012 2 .
.

. 3

. ,

EU
,
.

.
2012 EU 2011 (fiscal compact)
. EU

2012

91


. 2011

. ,
, 2012
.
2011
ECB , () EFSF
.
, EFSF
.

. 2011 7 17 EFSF , 10

. 7,800 EFSF

.

2011 12 EU 17
EU .
EU
. , EU EU
(ESM: European Stability Mechanism)
2012 7 .
, EU
.
2012
. , , 2012 3 EU

92

. 2012 3

,
. ,
, .
EU 2012 .

3. :
.
,
, ,
2012 .
,
.
. 2011 10
(Ennahda, )
. ,
.
60
11 .
, (Salafist) (Muslim Brotherhood)
. 2012

. (NDP:
National Democratic Party)

2012

93

. .
,
.
.
(Tripolitania-Cyrenaica) ,
(Tripoli) (Benghazi) () .
140 ,
(Muammar Gaddafi) (Qaddafa)
(Warfala) (Zuwayya) .
(NTC: National Transitional Council)
.
.

()
2012 .
. 2011


. .

. ,
(Al-Hasa) .
(Hezbollah)
.
, 2011
.
(Muqtada Al Sadr)
. ---

94

(Shiite crescent)
.


2011
. ,
.
. NATO, EU
.
,
(non-violent pluralism)
. , ,
, .
(hard power)
(smart power) .

.
2012
. 2011 11

.
(2010 9% )
.

.

2012

95

.

,
.

.

.

(Likud)- (Israeli Beiteinu)
.
(Muhammad Mubarak) ,
,
.
2011 5 .

.
. ,
(Kneset) 3
(Avigdor Lieberman)
.
,
.


, (Fatah)

96

(Mahmoud Abbas) (Hamas)


(Khaled Mashal) .
,
.
2011 5
.
. ,

.
, ,
. .

.


2011
.

. ,
,
.
.

. ,
, .
, 2012
. 2012

2012

97

.

2011 11 (IAEA: International Atomic Energy
Agency) ,
.
.
, ,
. .
,
.

.
.



.
.
.

.
.

98



.

, .
(Shiite horseshoe area) .
(GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council)
.

. GCC
(RCC:
Royal Cooperation Council) .

.

4. :



, 2012 .
2012 , , ,
.
.
2010 4 (Roza

2012

99

Otunbayeva) , 2011 10 30
(Almazbek Atambayev) .
, 2011 4 21
(Nursultan Nazarbayev) . 2012 2
22 (Islam Abduganievich
Karimov) . 2013 2014
.

, .
,
70
. 58 (Emomali
Rahmon) 1992 , 1992~1997

.

.

.
, .
5 , , ,
,
.

.
2011

100

.
2012 . ,
,
.

2010 7.3%, 2011 6.5% GDP ,
2012 . 2010
, ,
. ,
.
2010 9.2%[EIU(Economist
Intelligence Unit) 6% ], 2011 11% GDP ,
, ,
2012 .
,
. 2010 8.5%, 2011
8.0% GDP , 2012
. , ,
, 2012
.
2012
,
.
.
2010 4 -1.4%
GDP , 2011 11% .
, ,

2012

101

2010~2011 6% GDP
.

.

, 2012 .
2012 ,
(EURASEC: Eurasian Economic Community) (Custom Union)
. ,
2012 (CSTO: Collective Security Treaty
Organization), (SCO: Shanghai Cooperation Organization)
.
.

, CSTO,
EURASEC, SCO .

.
, ,
.

. 1992
(CICA: Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building measures
in Asia) , 4 . ,

. , 2010 1 ,
. 2012 1
.

102

, CIS
, .

CSTO .

. (Great Game)
,
,
, 2012 . ,
, , EU, , ,
.


, 2012 . CSTO,
EURASEC, SCO
, . 2012
, EURASECCSTO ,
. ,
2011
(Manas)
. 2012
SCO
.
2012 SCO
.
,
, . ,

2012

103


.

.
SCO
2005 . , 2011
10 2014
. 2012

.

,
. ,

. EU

.

, 2012 .

, ,
,
.

.
.
,
, 2012 .

104

2009 4 5

(Aral Sea) .

.
,
. , ,
.

.

. ,

.

. CSTO
.
CSTO .

. ,
.

. 20
2012 20
.
. , ,

2012

105


. ,
2012 .
,

.
,
. 2006
, 2007
. , 5
.
2011
. 8,
2009

. , 2011 11 5
.

5. :
.
2012 .
2012
. ,
2011
.

106

2011
, , .
,
.
,
.

. , ,
.
2011 , , 2012
. ,
2011 ,
.
, ,

.

(Republic of South Sudan) 2011


. 2011 1
9, 98.83% 7 9
193, (AU: African Union)
54 .
2012
. ,
2011 7 9 ()
.

2012

107

, 2012 5
.
, .
, .
(50 , 40 )
,
.

. ()
2012 20 ,
. , 2007
, 2008 , 2010

. 2012
.

, 2012
. , (Robert Gabriel Mugabe)
, ,
.
, 2012

. (ANC:
African National Congress) .
, ANC 2013
ANC .
2011 5 18 ANC

108

ANC .
(Michael Sata)
(Rupiah Banda)
2012
.

.
2011 4 16
(Goodluck Jonathan) , 2012
.
.
(Umaru Yar'Adua) 2010
, 4
.
2011 11 6
(Ellen Johnson Sirleaf)
, . 2 1 2
(CDC: Congress for Democratic Change)

(Winston Tubman)

.
, , ,

.

. 6%
2012 6%

2012

109

, EU . ,
,
2012 2011 .
,
.
2012
.
EU
,
. ,
.
.

. 2011 6
1 10% , 7.5%
.

.
, 2011
3.5% 2012 3%
.
, ,
,
.


. ,

110

, .

.

. ,
.

6. :
.
10

. 2000
BRICS
10 8% GDP . 2012
.
1991

. 2010 GDP 1
5,000 10
.
. 12
( IT )
.
.
, ,

2012

111


(SAARC: South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation)
. , Look
East Policy
. 1
2009 PTA .
2 . 2000
FTA , EAS
(ARF: ASEAN Regional Forum) ASEM
.
,
(global power) .
. 2000
G-4 ,
. , 2010 11

. (emerging)

(emerged) . ,

G20


.

,
. , ,

.
.

112

.

.
.
.

. ,
, 2008
.
SAARC
,
.
,
LeT(Lashkar-e-Toiba)
. ,
. ,
( ) ,

. ,


.

.
. ,
16 (MFN: Most
Favored Nation) .

.

2012

113

. 9.11


.
. 2011 5
.
. , 2011 11

.
.

.
2012
. ,

. 2012 40 13

( ) 4 . 2012
2014
.
2011
. 2011 7
(Hamid Karzai) (Ahmaed Ali
Karzai) . , 11 20
(Burhanuddin Rabbani) ( )
.
(Haqqani Network)
(ISAF: International Security Assistance Force)

114

.
,
.
.

.
(Asia Foundation) ,
29% , 46%
.
.
.
.
, ,
. 2012
.

,
. 19
~20 .
1, 2
.
,
(Kyaukpyu), (Chittagong),
(Hambantota), (Gwadar)
.
(string of

2012

115

pearls) .
.

.
, .
.
, (ISA: International Seabed Authority)
15 .
, 2011 8 (Varyag)
,
.
, (Lhasa) (Kathmandu)
. , 2010
-(Gilgit-Baltistan)
.

(strategic encirclement) .

. 2010 11
. ,
(NSG: Nuclear Suppliers Group)/
(MTCR: Missile Technology Control Regime)
, .
,

. ,
.

116

.
,
,
.

7. :
.
2012
. , ,
.
2011 6 5 (Keiko
Sofa Fujimori Higuchi) (Ollanta
Humala) .
.
(Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias)
. (Lula da
Silva) , , 10
FTA , .
2011 10 23
(Cristina Fernandez) 53% .
8 . 2009 ,
8 8% .
,
.

2012

117

, .
4
.

.
2012 , ,
4% .
, , ,
.
. (ECLAC: Economic
Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) , 2012
1,700 7% .

.
. ,
.

. 2012
.

. TPP
. 2011 4 28
(Acuerdo del Pacifico) . ,
, ,
. , ,
(AIP: Acuerdo de Intergrado Profundo)
. ,

118

(MERCOSUR: Mercado Comn del Sur)


.
, , ,
MERCOSUR
.
- . FTA
MERCOSUR .

. TPP APEC
.
.

(Lachinamerica, ) ,
.
,
.
.

2012

119

1.
.
2008 2011
.
,
.

.
,
. , BRICS

.
. 2012
, (EU: European Union)
,
.
G2 .

2012

123

G2
.

G0 .

. G8 G20
2008 G20
(Global Governance) G7/G8
. , G8
G20 . 2010
G8 G20 G8
G8 , G20 (),
.
2011 5 26~27 (Deauville) G8

G8 . ,
,

.

, 2011 11 3~4 (Cannes) G20


G20 2015
.
,
.
, G8 G20
, .

124

, G8
.
G8 ,
. BRICS
,
G8 G8 BRICS
. G20 ,
G8, BRICS G20 ,
.

.

. ,
,
.
,
G-X .
G-X G7/G8 G20 ,
.
(regional
multilateralism) .

. ,

(natural economic territory) . ,

2012

125

, 3
.
, 2008
G20
, G20
,
.
3 ,

.
,

.

.

2. : , IMF SDR
.

2010 2011
. 2012
.
1 9% 2011 10,
(countervailing duty)
(the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight

126

Reform Act of 2011) .


.
1930
.
. 3/4
, . ,
, ,
,
. , 2012
.

. 11 .
2012
. 2011
2012
.

. ,
2012 .

,

. 2011

4.5% .

. 2012 ,
.
.

2012

127

.
IMF SDR
2012 ,
.
2011 G20
,
. , , ,
(IMF: International Monetary Fund) (SDR: Special
Drawing Rights)
. SDR
.
SDR SDR
. SDR
. 2009 3
SDR (reserve asset)
. .
2
.

. 2
.
5 17
. ,
.
.

128


2012
.
.
, , ,
2011 2010 13 9,576
.
.

.
2

.
.
IMF SDR
.

, 1 . ,
, 2015~2020(12 5
)
.

. IMF
2008 IMF
. IMF
, 2012

2012

129

.
IMF .
,
. IMF
5 , 2008
. 2008 ,
. 2010 G20
2013 , 2012
.
IMF 2010 G20
. 2008
, 2013 6% ,
(Executive Board) 24 2
. , IMF 10 , ,
, , , , , , , ,
. IMF
BRICS .

.
, G20 IMF
2015 5 15

(General Quota Review) 2 2014 1

. 2012 10~15

IMF ,
. 2012 IMF
.

130

3. WTO/DDA FTA
. WTO/DDA
G20 2011
8 . 2012
, .
2011 8 (DDA: Doha Development
Agenda) 2011 4 .
DDA (progress report)
, . ,
.
(WTO: World Trade Organization)
DDA WTO
, WTO 2011 12 15~17
. 12
,
. , DDA
-(DFQF: Duty-Free Quota-Free)
(LDCs: Least Developed Countries)
LDCs .

.

8 , (GPA: Government
Procurement Areement) , ,
. , (Montenegro),
(Vanuatu), (Samoa) WTO 157
. WTO 99%

2012

131

, . ,
2009 2
2013 2 .
(TRIPS: Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual
Property Rights)
. , WTO GPA
42
.
2012 ,
DDA .
DDA 2013 12 9 .
DDA .
2012 WTO/DDA WTO
. , (single undertaking)
.
,
(PTA: Plural Trade Agreement)
. WTO , WTO
G7(, EU, , , , , )
.

. FTA : FTA


(TPP: Trans-Pacific strategic economic
Partnership) 2012 1 3
2012 . 2009 11

132

TPP , TPP 4(P-4:


, , , ) (FTA: Free Trade Agreement)
. TPP
2011 11 (APEC: Asia- Pacific Economic
Cooperation) .
, , TPP
.
TPP FTA
, .
TPP ,
,
.
3 ,
. TPP
, ()
. , TPP
.
TPP 2012
. TPP 2012
. , TPP ,
, , TPP 9 TPP
.

/ FTA

2012 TPP / FTA


. , , EU FTA
, EU , / FTA
.

2012

133

2011 12 3 3 FTA
, 2012 3 FTA . ,
() 2012 , 20
2012 .
FTA .
/ FTA ,
. FTA
, FTA
.
, 2011 +3 3 FTA
2012 .
. (2003
), (1992, 2007 ), (1989) ,
3
.
. , 3
. 3 ,
, ,
(Pre-NT) . ,
, . 2012 3
,

3 FTA .

FTA
2012 EU FTA , (MERCOSUR: Mercado
Comn del Sur) , FTA
. EU 2007 EU FTA ,

134

2011 13 2012 . EU
FTA , , .
2012 EU
. MERCOSUR FTA 2000 ,
. 2011 11 7
2012 .
EU (EIA: Economic Integration Agreement)
, 2011
. 2012 . 2009
10 , 2012
, ,
.
2012 , EU FTA
. 2010 (EPA: Economic Partnership
Agreement) , EPA
FTA , , FTA
. FTA
, , . ,
, FTA
.
, (2010), (2011)
(CEPA: Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement)

, 2012 EU FTA .

FTA , 2007

10 . , 2009 6 -MERCOSUR
(PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement)
FTA .

2012

135

MERCOSUR FTA
, 2012 EU FTA
. MERCOSUR FTA
, PTA . MECOSUR PTA
, , , , (CAN: Comunidad Andina
de Naciones) . ,
(SACU: Southern African Customs Union) .
MERCOSUR PTA(, SACU, ) FTA
, EU, (GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council),
, PTA FTA .
FTA 2009 7 MERCOSUR FTA MOU
. EU FTA
. 2012 EU MERCOSUR
FTA .

4. :
.
(Durban) 2011 11 28~12 11

17 (COP: Conference of the Parties)


2020
.
2 .
2012 .
37( I )
2012 1

136

. , 2012 (Post-2012)
.
, , , (77)
2 . ,
,
.
,
,
. ,
, 1
.
, , ,
.
EU (EU-ETS: EU
Emissions Trading System) (CDM: Clean Development
Mechanism) . , EU
. ,
2015
, 2020
EU .
2013
5 8 . EU
2 .
, , ,
.
30% EU
.

2012

137

.
2020
. , 2020
. 2012
2015
, 2020 ,
.
2020
, (a protocol, another
legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force)
.
2020
,
. , ,
(legally binding) EU
, , .
2020 , EU
,
.
.

2009 , 2010

. 2010~2012
300 2013~2020 1

138

.
. (new and additional)
,
.

(GCF: Green Climate Fund) .

.
.
, .

. ,
,
.

1,000 ,
, .
,
.

EU,

2020

. ,
(AOSIS:
Alliance of Small Island States), LDCs,
EU .

2012

139

.
, 2009
EU
. , , ,
. ,
,
.
.
,
.
,
. ,
.

.

5.
.

2012 , (Nuclear Security


Regime) . 2009 4 (Barack Obama)
2009 9 1887
.
(nuclear security) 2010
.
2012 3 26~27 2

140

(ICSANT: International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism)


(CPPNM: Convention on the Physical Protection of
Nuclear Material) .
(dirty bomb)
.
(Seoul Communique)
, ,
.
2012
,
. (IAEA: International
Atomic Energy Agency)
. ,
(Fissile Materials Working
Group) NGO
.
, 2011 1
() (Center of Excellence on Nuclear
Security) . 2013
,

.
,
. (CTBT:
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) (FMCT: Fissile
Material Cut-off Treaty)
. CTBT FMCT 2011

2012

141

,
2012 .

.
,
(NWFZ: NuclearWeapon-Free Zone).
(UEP: Uranium Enrichment Program)
2012 .
(NPT: Non-Proliferation Treaty) 7 ,
.

. 1995 5 NPT
, .
2010 8 NPT 1995
,
2012 .
UEP .
UEP
. 2011 IAEA 10

, , IAEA
. IAEA

.
UEP
NPT 2012
.

142

,
,
.

.
(nuclear safety) 2012
. 2011 3 13

.
.

.

.
2011 9 IAEA
, ,
(Action Plan on Nuclear Safety) .

,
.
,

.
.

. , 1,600,
500 , 437, 250

2012

143

.
.
, 2011 4
.
(nuclear security culture) ,
(security by design)
. , 2012
.

144

A
ACT

Association of Consumers and Taxpayers () ACT

AFTA

ASEAN Free Trade Area

AIA

ASEAN Investment Area

AIP

Acuerdo de Intergrado Profundo

ANC

African National Congress

()

AOSIS

Alliance of Small Island States

APEC

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

ARF

ASEAN Regional Forum

ASEAN

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

ASEAN EC ASEAN Economic Community

ASEAN+3

ASEAN+Korea, China, Japan

+, ,

ASEM

Asia-Europe Meeting

AU

African Union

B
BRICS

, , , ,
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
5

C
CAN

Communidad Andina de Naciones

CDC

Congress for Democratic Change

()

CDM

Clean Development Mechanism

CEPA

Comprehensive Economic Partnership


Agreement

2012

147

CICA

Conference on Interaction and


Confidence-building measures in Asia

CIS

Commonwealth of Independent States

COP

Conference of the Parties

( )

CPPNM

Convention on the Physical Protection


of Nuclear Material

CSTO

Collective Security Treaty Organization

CTBT

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

CU

Custom Union

DDA

Doha Development Agenda

DFQF

Duty-Free Quota-Free

EAFTA

East Asia Free Trade Area

EAS

East Asia Summit

EAVG II

East Asian Vision Group II

ECB

European Central Bank

ECLAC

(UN) Economic Commission for Latin


America and the Caribbean

()

EDPC

Extended Deterrence Policy Committee

EEU

Eurasian Economic Union

EFSF

European Financial Stability Facility

EIA

Economic Integration Agreement

EIU

Economist Intelligence Unit

148

EPA

Economic Partnership Agreement

ESM

European Stability Mechanism

EU

European Union

EU-ETS

EU-Emissions Trading System

EURASEC

Eurasian Economic Community

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization

()

FMCT

Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty

FTA

Free Trade Agreement

G2

Group of Two

G4

Group of Four

, , ,

G7

Group of Seven

, , , ,
, ,

G8

Group of Eight

G-7,

G20

Group of Twenty

G-8, EU, , ,
, , , ,
, , ,
,

GCC

Gulf Cooperation Council

GCF

Green Climate Fund

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GICNT

Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear


Terrorism

GPA

Government Procurement Agreement

2012

149

H
HEU

Highly Enriched Uranium

IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency

ICSANT

International Convention for the

Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism

IMF

International Monetary Fund

INGO

International Non-Governmental
Organization

ISA

International Seabed Authority

ISAF

International Security Assistance Force

Korean Missile Defense

LDCs

Least Developed Countries

LEU

Low Enriched Uranium

M&A

Mergers and Acquisitions

MD

Missile Defence

K
KMD

MERCOSUR Mercado Comn del Sur

150

MFN

Most Favored Nation

MTCR

Missile Technology Control Regime

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

ND

New Democratic Party

()

NDP

National Democratic Party

()

New START New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

()

NGO

Non-Governmental Organization

NPT

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

NSG

Nuclear Suppliers Group

NTC

National Transitional Council

()

NWFZ

Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone

ODA

Official Development Assistance

OECD

Organization of Economic Cooperation


and Development

OSCE

Organization for Security and Cooperation

in Europe

P
PAP

Peoples Action Party

()

PASOK

Panhellenic Socialist Movement

()

2012

151

PCA

Partnership and Cooperation Agreement

P-4

Pacific-Four (New Zealand, Singapore,


Chile, Brunei)

4(,
, , )

PIIGS

Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain

5
(, ,
, , )

PKO

Peace Keeping Operation

()

PSI

Proliferation Security Initiative

PTA

Preferential Trade Agreement

PTA

Plural Trade Agreement

PVV

Partji Voor de Vrijheid

()

RCC

Royal Cooperation Council

R2P

Responsibility to Protect

SAARC

South Asian Association for Regional


Cooperation

SACU

Southern African Customs Union

SaS

Sloboda a Solidarita

()

SCM

ROK-US Security Consultative Meeting

SCO

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

SDR

Special Drawing Rights

S&ED

U.S.-China Strategic and Economic


Dialogue

SLOCs

Sea Lines of Communication

152

SOFA

Status of Forces Agreement

START

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

TMD

Theater Missile Defense

TPA

Trade Promotion Authority

TPP

Trans-Pacific strategic economic


Partnership

TRIPS

Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of

Intellectual Property Rights

U
UEP

Uranium Enrichment Program

UMNO

United Malays National Organization

UN

United Nations

World Trade Organization

W
WTO

2012

153


| | 2012 7
( , , )


- : ( )
- : ( )

: ( )
: ( )
: 5 ( )
: ( )
: ( )

: ( )
: ( )
: ( )
: ( )
: [(POSCO )]
: ( , )
: [(
)]

( )
: , IMF SDR ( )
WTO/DDA FTA ( )
: ( )
( )

( )

| |

You might also like