Political Polling FAQs

How is the sample selected for a telephone survey? Random Digit Dialing (RDD) The Dissection of a Telephone Number (777) (Area Code) 777 Exchange 77 Block Number 77 RANDOMLY GENERATED NUMBERS

The first 3 components are based on location and the final component is randomly generated. The interviewer will then randomly select a person in the household to be interviewed. What types of error are found in political polls? Total Survey Error includes Sampling Error and three other types of errors that you should be aware of when interpreting poll results: Coverage Error, Measurement Error, and NonResponse Error. What happens when the final sample doesn't look like the general public--For example, what if three quarters of your respondents are over fifty? Survey firms apply a technique called weighting to adjust the poll results to account for possible sample biases caused by specific groups of individuals not responding. The weighting uses known estimates of the total population provided by the Census to adjust the final results. It's not uncommon to weight data by age, gender, education, race, etc. in order to achieve the correct demographic proportions. What is a push poll? In a "push poll," a large number of people are called by telephone and asked to participate in a purported survey. The survey "questions" are really thinly veiled accusations against an opponent or repetitions of rumors about a candidate s personal or professional behavior. The focus here is on making certain the respondent hears and understands the accusation in the question, not in gathering the respondent s opinions. They are regarded as unethical and have been condemned by legitimate polling agencies. Remember . y y Even the best poll can do no more than capture sentiments at a given moment in a campaign & no survey can predict the future A general rule of thumb is that polls taken more than five weeks out from the general election are an unreliable predictor of results