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Probability Case Closed
Probability Case Closed
A recent Government Accounting Office report found that the detection of weapons or bombs has
not improved much since 2003. In a separate Federal Aviation Administration test of the
effectiveness of airport screening systems, 40 percent of explosives, 30 percent of guns, and 70
percent of knives planted by government agents made it through such security checkpoints.
Using what you have learnt about simulations and probability, you should now be able to answer
some questions about false-positives and false-negatives in connection with the screening of luggage
at airports.
ANSWERS:
1. False-negative when alarm does not go off for luggage that contains explosives
2. False-negative is much more serious than a false-positive (embarrassment)
3. p = 0.3
4. P(negative | bomb) = 40% P(positive | bomb) = 1 – 0.4 = 0.6
5. P(positive | no bomb) = 0.3, P(negative | no bomb) = 0.7
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