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Dean Bubley Day 2 Analyst Spotlight 11
Dean Bubley Day 2 Analyst Spotlight 11
Dean Bubley Day 2 Analyst Spotlight 11
Analyst house & strategic consulting firm Founded by Dean Bubley Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Covering mobile VoIP since 2004, pico/femtocells since 2001 Regular focus on the links between innovative mobile network technologies & the impact on devices and applications Partnered with Telco 2.0, Diffraction Analysis & Martin Geddes Consulting Coined the term Happy Pipe to describe profitable broadband strategies
Also Tyranny of the SIM card, Mobile data offload & Under the floor player
Recent reports on Mobile Broadband Traffic Management & RCS Upcoming study on Telco-OTT services Masterclasses on Future of Voice.
May 2011
2010-2020 Power & bandwidth to fit comms tech to human needs, not vice versa LTE, cloud, web 2.0, social networks, smart Many two-sided business models Fragmentation of voice into 1000 apps devices, apps, QoE
May 2011
More users Possibility to distribute telephony via APIs & embedded applications New use cases? Extra functionality & quality?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
May 2011
but sessions are easy to control & bill. The challenge is to package sessions in a way to compete with more natural options that are emerging
May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
Voice Telephony
Now: 2G & 3G
Voice Voice Telephony
Telephony
Video
Significant risk that basic telephony & messaging services fall prey to alternatives that fit better with human psychology. Moving to supply >> demand for voice
May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
Other
LTE phones 3G phones 2G phones Most devices not for primary voice. Scope for secondary IP comms services Full mobile VoIP not #1 priority
2020
2020 Straw Man 1bn LTE handsets Comms services ARPU $20 / mo [but 50% carried on 2G/3G/WiFi] $120bn revenue = equivalent to 2010 SMS market
May 2011
LTE
Mobile IMS
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2009/08/mobile-ims-and-lte-networks-dead-parrot.html May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
8 years to get 10% penetration for fixed-carrier VoIP against background of old switches, all postpaid (recurring revenue). No issues of mobility, battery or RF. 12 years after ITU release SIP specifications OneVoice (later VoLTE) specs announced late 2009 First VoLTE launches 2012/2013 (?)
May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
Poor optimisation in efficiency, yield, cost & performance All sorts of policy-management / steering challenges
Some will be data-only/primary & not need own voice platform Some may partner / encourage / optimise Skype & other 3rd party voice
Offload / multi-bearer scenarios No likelihood of MNOs switching off CS voice before 2020 Unknown need for optimisation & tuning of RAN for VoLTE High probability of OSS / BSS headaches Lack of clarity around network-sharing / wholesale scenarios Indoor coverage problems, esp. with MIMO Massmarket handsets a long way off Where is SMS???
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
May 2011
2011-2012
Some trials. Many problems found Few rollouts. Likely not good user experience
2013-2014
Patchy rollout, more in 700-900MHz networks May be fixed, but not likely
2015 onwards
Slow growth but not universal. Used for roaming Fades out as mainstream option
Notes
If it works, OK for basic telephony, not for Voice 2.0 Political choice by GSMA / 3GPP
CSFB
VoLGA
May 2011
Wholesale
$ But a risk of reversal telcos paying for Web QoS, APIs, data, content Govern -ment IT shops And also not as easy as it looks to achieve. Platforms, SLAs, IT, sales
Developers
May 2011
May 2011
May 2011
May 2011