Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Lecture, Time Series
Lecture, Time Series
c
!
"c
#
$
%
c
$
#
&'
('
)'%
*'
cc
$+
$ '
,
c
$
&' -
!
('
$
)' , $
$
c
!
$
"&c+ $
+./+
$
0
1&
1(
1)
Quarter
Number of paasengers 2.2 5.0 7.9 3.2 2.9 5.2 8.2 3.8 3.2 5.8 9.1 4.1
(millions )
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
78
2.2.
2.2
5.0
10.0
7.9
23.7
3.2
12.8
2.9
14.5
5.2
31.2
8.2
57.4
3.8
30.4
3.2
28.8
5.8
58.0
9.1
100.1
4.1
49.2
0. 418 .3
0.,
n r
n r ( )
78,
Thus b
3.94
rb
3.94 0.17
1
4.11
4
4.28
9
4.45
1
4.2
25
4.79
3
4.9
49
5.13
4 5.30
81
5.47
100 5.4
121 5.81
144 5.98
50
r
418.3,
292.8
171
0.17
50, n 12
"(2
!
'3
$
'
2
&456
"6
5'6
")5'6
(6
5'6&
&457
"*
5'8
")&'(
&7
5'5*
&455
")
8'(
"(*'7
4
5'45
&458
"(
8'(
"&7'*
*
8'(9
&454
"&
8'*
"8'*
&
8'*)
&489
9
8'6
9
9
8'77
&48&
&
8'5
8'5
&
8'84
&48(
(
4'&
&8'(
*
4'&(
&48)
)
4')
(5'4
4
4')6
&48*
*
4'5
)8'8
&7
4'68
&986
6
4'4
*4'6
(6
4'8&
c
9
46')
(6'9
&&9
46'(7
Thus b
a
0,
8.
rb
8. .0.23
95.3,
25
110
0.23
25.0,
110, n 11
")2
!
'
&486:
"&4
*&(
"58(8
::
"&5
69(
"86)*
:::
"&6
6*6
"8&56
:;
"&)
*&)
"8)74
&487:
"&&
**6
"*846
::
"4
649
"6)&9
:::
"5
784
"*8()
:;
"6
6))
"(776
&485:
")
6*5
"&7*&
::
"&
5*(
"5*(
:::
&
54*
54*
:;
)
7(7
&858
&488:
6
7(5
)&)6
::
5
544
664)
:::
4
8)7
56(*
:;
&&
767
5(&7
&484:
&)
749
8459
::
&6
86&
&(576
:::
&5
84(
&6&7*
:;
&4
5*6
&*&66
c
9
&(4)*
(5(&(
0,
12934,
Thus b
10.23
a rb
4.7
4.7 .10.23
27212,
20, n
20
)7&
(84
((6
&74
&(&
8&
*4
(6
4
&
&
4
(6
*4
8&
&(&
&74
((6
(84
)7&
*6('))
*5('54
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
(779
c
$
"*c+ $
+./+
$
0
1&
1(
1)
Quarter
Number of paasengers 2.2 5.0 7.9 3.2 2.9 5.2 8.2 3.8 3.2 5.8 9.1 4.1
(millions )
.
$
'
+
+ $ $
Year1
Year 2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2.2 Year 2
5.0
7.9 Year3
3.2
2.9
5.2
2.4
Total
ean( L) 4.4
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.2
3.8
3.2
5.8
9.1
4.1
34.2
Total
ean(_ ) 5.7
-
+
&<)
<*
.
+
)<&
<(
ear1
Quarter 1
2
3
4
1
2
ata ( ) 2.2 5.0 7.9 3.2 2.9 5.2
Trend (t ) 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9
ear 2
3
4
1
8.2
3.8 3.2
5.2
5.4 5.
ear 3
2
3
4
5.8
9.1 4.1
5.8 .0 .2
c,, $
$
, $
$
$
'
"&
=6 $
$
+ $
'
Original values 12 10
oving totals
oving average
11
11
11
10
10
11 10
53
52
52
51
51
52
10. 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.4
c $
$
6
$
$
)
$
$'
$
$
(*7''''
$
$':
, $
$ $
"(
Time Points 1 2
3
4
5
7
8
9 10
Data value
9 14
17
12
10
14
19
15
10 1
Totals( of 4)
52
53
53
55
58
58
0
Average (of 4)
13.00
13.25
13.25
13.75
14.50
14.50
15.00
+
+
$
+
$
$'
Time Po int s
Average(of 4)
Average( of 2)
3
13.00
4
13.25
13.125
5
13.25
13.250
13.75
13.500
14.50
14.125
14.50
14.500
")
%
$ $
$ $
%
$ $
$+
'3
$
$
+
'
Qtr
original data ( )
ear1 1
2.2
2
5.0
18.3
4.
4.78
4.84
4.95
5.0
5.18
5.250
3.2
5.3
21.9
5.100
3.8
21.0
ear 3 1
5.025
8.2
20.4
4.875
5.2
20.1
4.800
2.9
19.5
4.750
3.2
19.2
ear 2 1
4.575
7.9
19.0
5.475
5.8
5.51
22.2
9.1
4.1
5.550