T sch SOS2

KORNAI JNOS

CC TNG V CH NGHA T BN
BN TIU LUN

Nguyn Quang A dch

KORNAI JNOS

GONDOLATOK A KAPITALIZMUSRL
NGY TANULMNY

Akadmiai Kiad Budapest 2011

KORNAI JNOS

CC TNG V CH NGHA T BN
BN TIU LUN

Tng cc sinh vin v gio vin mt thi, hin nay v tng lai ca Trng Ni tr Rajk.

Mc lc Danh mc cc bng Danh mc cc hnh Dn nhp 1. i mi v tnh nng ng. Tng tc gia cc h thng v tin b k thut 1.1. Ch ngha t bn, ch ngha x hi v tin b k thut 1.2. S bin i v s tng tc ca tin b k thut 1.3. Phn nh thc t lch s trong suy ngh ca con ngi 1.4. Nhng nhn xt tng kt 2. Nn kinh t thiu ht nn kinh t d tha. V l thuyt th trng 2.1. Dn nhp 2.2. Th trng ca cc sn phm v dch v c ch ti to d tha 2.3. Th trng ca cc sn phm v dch v b my khi nim v phng php o 2.4. Th trng sc lao ng c ch ti to d tha 2.5. Tm tt m t thc chng v phn tch nhn qu 2.6. Tc ng v nh gi ca nn kinh t d tha 2.7. Nhng s lch khi s tng qut 2.8. Li cui ring t Ph lc. Cc nhn t cn tr sn xut trong cng nghip Hungary, 19872010 3. Libert, galit, Fraternit T do, Bnh ng, Bc i. Suy ngm v nhng thay i tip sau s sp ca h thng x hi ch ngha 3.1. Dn nhp 3.2. Libert 3.3. galit 3.4. Fraternit 3.5. D bo? 4. Marx di con mt mt tr thc ng u 4.1. Ci hp dn ti n vi Marx... 4.2. ... v ci lm ti tht vng vi cc t tng marxian 4.3. Trch nhim tr tu v h thng x hi ch ngha 4.4. Ci tip tc cn sng t cc hc thuyt ca Marx Ti liu tham kho Cc s liu cng b trc ca cc tiu lun trong cun sch ny Ch mc tn- v ni dung 191 191 192 197 202 208 211 212 215 218 223 228 246 247 7 9 10 25 27 47 56 66 68 68 73 87 107 129 149 168 187 188

Li Gii thiu
Bn c cm trn tay cun th hai mi mt* ca t sch SOS2, cun Cc tng v ch ngha t bn ca Kornai Jnos. y l cun sch th tm ca ng c dch ra ting Vit (trong c cun Nhng mu thun v nan gii c xut bn t lu trc nm 2000 v khng thuc t sch SOS2). Cun Cc tng v ch ngha t bn cha phi l cun H thng t bn ch ngha cp tng ng vi cun H thng x hi ch ngha ca ng, m ch c th coi l phc ha ca tc phm ln cha c vit nhm phn tch v ph phn ch ngha t bn theo khung kh t duy ring ca Kornai. N gm 4 tiu lun ring bit. Tc gi hon tt bn tho cui cng vo ngy 22-2-2011 v gi cho nh xut bn Vin Hn Lm Khoa Hc Hungary. Hy vng bn ting Hung v bn ting Vit s ra mt ti Budapest v H Ni cng mt lc. Ti ngh cun sch rt b ch cho cc sinh vin kinh t, cc nh chnh tr, cc nh kinh t hc, cc nh nghin cu khoa hc x hi ni chung, v tt c nhng ai quan tm n cc vn ca ch ngha t bn, ca cc nn kinh t chuyn i. Bn dch chc cn nhiu thiu st mong bn c thng cm, lng th, v ch bo. 01-3-2011 Nguyn Quang A
* Cc quyn trc gm: 1. J. Kornai: Con ng dn ti nn kinh t th trng, Hi Tin hc Vit Nam 2001, Nh Xut bn Vn ho Thng tin (NXB VHTT) 2002; Con ng dn ti nn kinh t t do (NXB Tri thc. 2007) 2. J. Kornai: H thng X hi ch ngha, NXB Vn ho Thng tin 2002 3. J. Kornai- K. Eggleston: Chm sc sc kho cng ng, NXB VHTT 2002 4. G. Soros: Gi kim thut ti chnh 5. H. de Soto: S b n ca t bn, NXB Chnh tr Quc gia, 2006 [S b n ca Vn] 6. J. E. Stiglitz: Ch ngha x hi i v u? 7. F.A. Hayek: Con ng dn ti ch nng n 8. G. Soros: X hi M 9. K. Popper: S Khn cng ca Ch ngha lch s 10. K. Popper: X hi m v nhng k th ca n, I, Plato 11. K. Popper: X hi m v nhng k th ca n, II, Hegel v Marx 12. Thomas S. Kuhn: Cu trc ca cc cuc Cch mng Khoa hc 13. Thomas L. Friedman: Th gii phng, Nh xut bn Tr, 2006 14. Mt nm Hi ngh Din Hng Hungary do Nguyn Quang A tuyn, dch, bin son 15. Kornai Jnos: Bng Sc mnh T duy, tiu s t thut c bit, NXB Thanh Ha, 2008 16. Kornai Jnos: Lch s v nhng bi hc, NXB Tri thc, 2007 17. Peter Drucker: X hi tri thc, Qun l, Kinh doanh, X hi v Nh nc, tp tiu lun 18. Murray Rothabrd: Lun l ca t do 19. Amartya Sen: T tng v cng bng, sp xut bn 20. Kornai Jnos: Ch ngha x hi, ch ngha t bn, dn ch v thay i h thng, sp xut bn

Danh mc cc bng Bng 1.1 Nhng i mi cch mng Bng 1.2. tr trong i theo cc nh i mi tin phong vt liu nha Bng 1.3. tr trong i theo cc nh i mi tin phong my cng c iu kin bng chng trnh Bng 1.4. S xut hin cng ngh hin i cng nghip thp, c lin tc Bng 1.5. Thu bao in thoi c dy, cc s so snh Bng 1.6. S xut hin cng ngh truyn thng hin i cc nc thnh vin EU Bng 1.7. S xut hin cng ngh truyn thng hin i cc nc thnh vin EU Bng 1.8. S xut hin cng ngh truyn thng hin i Nga v vi nc khc Bng 1.9. nh gi s tin b k thut Bng 1.10. Nhng k vng lin quan n tc ng ca cng ngh mi Bng 1.11. Mc hi lng vi dn ch (chia dn s thnh cc nhm dng Internet v khng dng Internet) Bng 1.12. nh gi h thng kinh t t bn ch ngha (chia dn s thnh cc nhm dng Internet v khng dng Internet) Bng 1.13. nh gi h thng x hi ch ngha (chia dn s thnh cc nhm dng Internet v khng dng Internet) Bng 2.1. S in thoi c dy trn mt trm dn s vi nc x hi ch ngha v Hoa K, 19801988 Bng 2.2. So snh quc t t l mc s dng nng lc, 19782008 Bng 2.3. T l hng tn u vo v u ra, so snh quc t, 19811985 Bng 2.4. Quan h gia khi nim ca tiu lun v thng k th trng lao ng Bng 2.5. T l dn s khng hot ng kinh t, tht nghip v ch lm vic trng trong khu vc ng u, 19892008 Bng 2.6. Dn s khng hot ng kinh t, s ngi tht nghip v s ch lm vic trng, so snh quc t, 19802008 Bng 2.7. Hai mt ca c cu iu phi im qua cc tn gi Bng 2.8. Chi ph qung co vi nc pht trin, 19752007 Bng 2.9. Cc yu t ca tng hp thc chng trong ch nn kinh t thiu ht nn kinh t d tha 164 124 134 152 116 76 92 102 110 65 64 64 33 34 49 50 50 51 57 58 27 33

Bng 2.10. Thi gian ch i trong mt s h thng y t ty-u, 2004 Bng 2.11. Danh mc ch kt ni mng in thoi c dy, cc nc trung-ng-u, 19712007 Bng F.1. Cc nhn t cn tr sn xut trong cng nghip Hungary, 19872010 Bng 3.1. H b chnh ph trong mi nc EU trung-ng-u, 19892008 Bng 3.2. Ch s t do kinh t trn th gii (Economic Freedom of the World, EFW Index) cc nc hu x hi ch ngha Bng 3.3. Cc gi tr t do versus trt t Bng 3.4. S bt bnh ng tiu dng (h s Gini ca tiu dng trn u ngi) Bng 3.5. D lun v hot ng ca chnh ph gim bt bt bnh ng thu nhp Bng 3.6. Cc gi tr trch nhim c nhn versus ch ngha gia trng

177 186 188 193 194 196 198 200 205

Danh mc cc hnh Hnh 1.1 S xut hin cng ngh hin i cng nghip thp, sn xut thp thi oxy 35 Hnh 1.2 T l lp v ng ca cng ty trong cc nm 1990 Hnh 1.3 Cc t l th v tnh ca vic lp v ng ca cng ty trong cc h thng kinh t chuyn i Hnh 2.1 S thu bao in thoi c dy v di ng trn mt trm dn s Hoa K, 19902007 Hnh 2.2 T l s dng nng lc trong cng nghip ca Hoa K, 19652010 Hnh 2.3 T l s dng nng lc trong cng nghip Php, 19652005 Hnh 2.4 T l chung ca cc cn h cho thu v bn Hoa K, 19942007 Hnh 2.5 Cc nhn t cn tr sn xut trong cng nghip Hungary, 19872010 Hnh 2.6 Cc t l hot ng v trnh pht trin kinh t, 1980 Hnh 2.7 Cc t l hot ng v trnh pht trin kinh t, 2009 Hnh 2.9 Dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t, t l ngi tht nghip trong ba nc t bn ch ngha truyn thng, 19802009 Hnh 2.10 Minh ha nn kinh t thiu ht v nn kinh t d tha Hnh 2.11 Chui nhn qu ca cc nhn t gy ra nn kinh t d tha Hnh 2.12 Nng lc d tha trong ngnh t, 19902008 Hnh 2.13 kin ca cc lnh o nghnh t v d nng lc ton cu, 2006-2008 125 137 143 157 158 75 93 93 94 98 113 114 54 53

Hnh 2.8 T l ch lm vic trng v s ngi tm vic lm Ba Lan, 19641988 115

Dn nhp
Nhiu loi cm gic v tng dn ti tng cun sch mi ca mnh cho cc sinh vin v gio vin mt thi, hin nay v tng lai ca Trng Chuyn ni tr Rajk*. Trong nhiu thp k nhiu loi dy kt ni gia chng ti. Ti vui lng din tp cng khai mt s bi ging ca mnh ti Trng, suy ngm li s n nhn gp phn vo s chn mui ca ni dung mun ni ca ti. Trong ng i ca mnh nhiu ngi hp tc trong cng vic ca ti vi t cch tr l nghin cu; tr vi ngoi l tt c h u l cc sinh vin trngRajk.1 Bn cnh cc quan h cng s, nhiu ln ti nhn c s gip c gi tr t cc gio vin v cc sinh vin tt nghip ca Trng, nhng ngi gi cc v tr khc nhau ca cuc sng chnh tr, kinh t v khoa hc. Seminar thiu ht do Chikn Attila t chc cho cc sinh vin trng-Rajk c tc ng thc y ln trong cc nm 1980 ph bin cc tng ca ti lin quan n ph phn h thng x hi ch ngha. Th nhng li tng c gi khng ch bi s hm n c nhn. Trng Chuyn-Rajk trong thi-Kdr dy d cc sinh vin ca mnh v tnh c lp tr tu, v s n nhn ph phn cc hc thuyt chnh thng, v tnh ci m i vi cc tng mi. Tinh thn ny vn tip tc tn ti trong cng ng ny. V may mn thay h chng n c trong qu kh, trong hin ti v ngy nay cng khng. S vinh danh trng Chuyn Rajk trong li ta c ngha tng trng ca n: nhc n tm gng ca h ti mun vit cho th h tr mi thi. Ti son cun sch ny trc ht cho cc bn tr, nhng ngi hc kinh t hc bt c trng i hc no ca t nc, v trong s h cng cho nhng ngi sn sng c hc liu bt buc vi con mt ph phn, v ngoi vic ch bin l lng ti liu bt buc th cng mun lm quen vi cc cch tip cn khc, vi cc quan im d gio na.
Rajk Lszl Szakkollgium, l trng chuyn mang tn Rajk Lszl, c thnh lp nm 1970 ti i hc Kinh t Budapest (mang tn Karl Marx, nay l i hc Corvinus) di s t chc ca thy Chikn Attila. Rajk Lszl l mt lnh t cng sn Hungary ni ting, chin u chng pht xt, b pht xt c b t, ri lm B trng B Ni v, B trng B Ngoi giao sau khi ng cng sn Hungary ln nm quyn, nhng ng b cc ng ch ca mnh vu oan v x t. V th vic trng ly tn ng khi c ngha tng trng ca n. Ngoi vic hc cc mn theo chng trnh chung, sinh vin ca trng chuyn Rajk cn c hc thm cc mn hc do bn thn hi ng trng (gm i din gio vin v sinh vin) hon ton t ch t chc v mi cc hc gi bn ngoi n dy (mang tnh ngoi kha nhng c theo di kt qu nghim tc), sinh vin cng tham gia nghin cu khoa hc. [Ch thch ca ngi dch].
1 *

Trong s h u tin ti mun nhn mnh n Kovcs Mria v Benedict gnes, nhng ngi sut nhiu nm gip ti mt cch tn tm, vi ht sc lc. Ti nhc n tn ca nhng ngi khc theo vn abc, nhng ngi lm vic vi ti mt thi gian di hay ngn: Hornok Cecilia, Hrkecz Judit, Lukcs Mnika, Murakzy Balzs, Nagy Eszter, Plfi Jzsef, Pter Nomi, Such Gyrgy, Szcsi Kata v Tth Istvn Jnos. Mi ngi trong s h c tnh cch ring khc nhau, nhng h ging nhau tr thng minh, s khao kht hiu bit, s tn tm. Ti ngh n h vi s yu thng nng m.

Ti ni thm: tht tt, nu khng ch cc sinh vin t m c cun sch ny, m c cc gio vin ca h na, bt lun h c thin cm vi tng ca ti, m c th h bit t cc cng trnh khc ca ti, hay khng. V nu ti m rng nhm bn c d kin, ti hy vng, rng cun sch nh ny n c vi nhng ngi khai sng ca cc khoa hc x hi khc na, trc ht l cc nh x hi hc, cc nh chnh tr hc v cc nh nghin cu lch s ng thi. Ti c gng din t cc tiu lun sao cho l c th hiu c i vi c cc bn c c hc, khng c o to v khoa hc kinh t, nhng quan tm n kinh t v cng vic chung. Nu cng c mt vi phn vn bn kh c, mang tnh chuyn mn hp hn, b qua chng th vn c th hiu c dng t duy ca cc tiu lun v cc kt lun.

Chn trong, chn ngoi quan h ca ti vi dng ch lu Sau thay i h thng, trong o to kinh t hc bc cao Hungary, trong ging dy cc mn l thuyt (l thuyt kinh t, kinh t hc vi m v v m) h thng t tng v phng php lun, m thng c gi l dng ch lu, gi v tr p o.2 C nh nghin cu v c s nghin cu, ni trng phi ny c v tr c quyn, ni khc tuy ngi ta c ni n cc cch tip cn knh ch, nhng nh hng ca chng nh nhoi so vi ca dng ch lu. Nhiu nhn t ng vai tr trong s ph bin nhanh ca dng ch lu ti nhc n vi nhn t m khng c xp th t v gn trng s no. Quan trng nht: sc mnh gii thch ln ca cc l thuyt c th c lit vo dng ch lu, tnh logic cht ch, s tao nh, v p tr tu ca cc m hnh ton hc, s chng minh kinh nghim thuyt phc ca nhiu khng nh vi cc phng php ton thng k hin i; tm li l s hp dn tinh thn ca dng ch lu. Tm gng ca cc b mn kinh t hc cc i hc phng Ty, trc ht l cc i hc M, gy n tng mnh; dng ch lu tr nn thng tr cc trng ny. Khng cn lp trnh li kin thc kinh t hc, chuyn t Marx sang Samuelson v Friedman, vo suy ngh ca cc thnh vin ca th h tr, c chun b v c ti nng, nhng ngi kim c bng tin s cc trng ny, bi v cc hc thuyt v cc phng php phn tch ca dng ch lu hn su trong cch suy ngh ca h.

Dn nhp khng th m nhim vic m t cc nt c trng chnh ca dng ch lu. Ngay c nu ti c th lm, ti cng lc vo vng snh ly, bi v khng c s thng nht ngay c bn trong ngh v cc ng ranh gii gia chnh thng-orthodox v phi chnh thng-heterodox nm u, ci g bn trong dng ch lu v ci g b chn ra ngoi. Trong qu trnh c tiu lun u tin v ch yu tiu lun th hai, bn c s nhn c cc im ta hiu khi nim dng ch lu. Trc y ngi ta thng dng thut ng l thuyt tn c in ch i loi cng trng phi t duy, m by gi c gi l dng ch lu vi thut ng rng hn.

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Tt nhin trng phi ny khng ch thu ht c cc tn chn thc t nhng ngi tr, m c t gii nhng ngi gi hn. Cc th h trc c nhiu thnh vin, nhng ngi bt u chuyn qu o t duy khng phi vo khong cc nm 19891990. Trc thay i h thng nhiu nh nghin cu v ging dy kinh t hc hon ton ht o tng vo cc l l so rng, khng c chng minh v khng th chng minh c ca kinh t hc chnh tr, vo ch ngha gio iu loi b lp lun nghim tc v s i snh cc lun l thuyt vi thc tin. Trong con mt h kinh t hc chnh tr marxist-leninist c ngha l phng ng v khoa hc kinh t ca dng ch lu l phng Ty v h m lng hon ton n nhn ci sau. Khng t ngi trc cng lm ch c kin thc ca dng ch lu hin i, v ch hon cnh chnh tr ngn cn h dy n mt cch cng khai v rng ri. Tnh kiu ngo tinh thn cng nung nng s tin chc chn thnh khng phi ch mt gio vin. Ngi ta khinh mit nhng ngi ng ngoi dng ch lu (v hy th nhn, trong nhiu trng hp l xc ng), rng h khng c kh nng nm bt nhng kin thc hin i v cc phng php phn tch, v thc ra h ch ngy trang s dt nt ca mnh bng cc l l kh d khcalternative. Vi s hng hi thi qu ca tn mi nhng ngi mi gia nhp loi b nhng ngi ngh khc vi cch ngh ca dng ch lu, thm ch trong ni b cng nh r cc ln sng mi hn v mi hn. Cc cng trnh ca ti, trong c cun mi ny, quan h ra sao vi dng ch lu? Ti thng t m t bn thn mnh, rng vi mt chn ti trong dng ch lu, cn vi chn kia ti bc ra khi n. Ti trn trng tha nhn sc mnh gii thch thuyt phc ln ca cc l thuyt ca n. Ti cho cc phng php phn tch ca n l c kh nng hot ng. Nhng cng lc ti ph nhn, rng vi cch tip cn l thuyt ny c th gii thch c mi hin tng kinh t quan trng; ti bc b yu sch qu cng iu, theo cc tn ca dng ch lu c trong tay cng c c sc gii thch vn nng. Cc cng trnh c thai nghn trong tinh thn ca dng ch lu c kh nng soi sng nhiu mi quan h quan trng, nhng cc kt qu ca chng l cc s tht mt phn. Ti cc cng trnh ca mnh ti ly nhiu th t cc tng ca dng ch lu, trong khi cc im ct yu ti khc h. Trong cun sch ny bn c s thy th d v c hai. Ti cng chng mun lm cho bn c tin rng dng cch ni ca dn chi bi ti c con bi cao hn dng ch lu ca kinh t hc. Tt c ci ti th lm ch l thay th mt s s tht mt phn ca n bng cc s tht mt phn khc (theo ti c sc thuyt phc hn), hay a ra cc cu tr li mi cho mt s cu hi cha c lm r, b dng ch lu b cha c cu tr li. Cui tiu lun s 2 ti dn mt truyn c tch n hay. Mt ng ln cho gi nhng ngi m n, v bo h: hy ni cho ng bit con voi l th no. Mt ngi m s chn con 12

voi, v bo rng con voi l ci ct to. Ngi khc nm ly vi n, v khng nh: con voi l chic ng mm, thon v d un. Cc nh bc hc chnh thng (orthodox) ca dng ch lu v cc nh nghin cu heterodox-phi chnh thng ng ngoi dng ch lu s thy khc v khc t thn hnh khng l ca con voi, tc l t t chc phc tp ca nn kinh t. Trong Dn nhp ti tm tt vi nt c trng ca vic s m ca ring ti. 1. SO SNH CH NGHA X HI V CH NGHA T BN. Kho st h thng ch ngha x hi i vi ti khng n gin l ti nghin cu, nh i vi mt nh soviet hc ty phng hay mt chuyn gia phng ty v Trung Quc. Ti sng trong vi t cch cng dn ca mt nc x hi ch ngha, u tin nh mt tn nhit thnh ca h thng, mun hn nh mt nh ph bnh ht o tng, nh mt k ni lon tinh thn. Ti ch thn cm nhn trn da mnh, n hot ng th no, v kinh nghim ny c b sung bng kin thc, m tch t trong ti vi t cch mt nh nghin cu h thng . T cc nm 1960 ti cc nc t bn ch ngha nhiu thi gian, khng nh mt khch du lch thi thong gh thm, m nh gio vin v nh nghin cu sng thi gia di, ngi sng v tri nghim h thng cng t bn trong. i vi ti tr thnh thi quen suy ngh hn su, rng ti lun so snh ch ngha x hi vi ch ngha t bn, ch ngha t bn vi ch ngha x hi trn nhiu phng din. Vic ny m con mt ca ti trc nhng s ging nhau v khc nhau, cc tnh cht i xng v bt i xng, m mt ngi lun ch sng bn trong mt h thng khng pht hin ra. i vi nh kinh t hc ca dng ch lu, ch ngha t bn chnh l h thng kinh t, ch khng phi l mt trong s cc h thng tn ti v mt lch s. Vi t cch ngi c bo, ng/b ta c l c cc tin tc v th gii ng sau bc mn st hay v chin tranh lnh vi s quan tm, nhng b c nghin cu ca ng/b ta khng n phn ca th gii. Mc d ti nh im ca s thng tr ca n mt phn ba dn s th gii sng trong h thng x hi ch ngha, nh kinh t hc phuong ty in hnh khng thy g trong ch ngha x hi ngoi mt c cu () hoang, qui thai, m nh bc hc nghin cu th gii bnh thng chng b cng n. Xc tn ca ti v ti hy vng, rng cun sch hin thi cng s lm r iu ny l, vic so snh mt cch c h thng h thng x hi ch ngha v t bn ch ngha cho cc bi hc ng ch , ngay c ngy nay na, khi h thng trc l ca qu kh, v ch c h thng sau c tng lai ca n. Cc bi hc ny c th thm ci g vo lng kin thc, m cc nh nghin cu sng bn trong ch ngha t bn tch t c cho n nay.

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2. CH BIN CC BI HC CA CHUYN I HU X HI CH NGHA. Ti cm thy may mn l mnh hiu s sp ca ch soviet v qu chuyn t h thng x hi ch ngha sang h thng t bn ch ngha. Gia nhiu bin i ln dng thut ng ca Polnyi ca lch s th gii, bin i ny l mt trong nhng bin i quan trng nht v l th nht. Chng ti, cc nh kinh t hc ng u khng nhng c th l cc i tng (thng hay thua thit), m ng thi cng l nhng ngi quan st v phn tch ca mt th nghim lch s chng bao gi quay li. Cuc th nghim khng din ra trong phng th nghim, trong mi trng c to ra mt cch nhn to, m l in vivo, trn nhng con ngi sng, trong cc c th x hi sng. Th nghim ny khng c cc nh khai sng ca dng ch lu quan tm; hu nh khng c tc phm ca h nhc n nhng kinh nghim [ca th nghim ny]. V phn mnh ti c gng con mt mnh m: theo di, ln theo du vt, xem cc tng quan lc lng th trng, cc lc ng v n du, s quan tm, ng x v h thng quan h ca con ngi vi nhng ngi khc hnh thnh nh th no. Chng ti c th phn tch theo phng php kinh nghim, trn c s quan st trc tip cc loi thay i m nh kinh t hc l thuyt in hnh ca dng ch lu kho st bng m hnh l thuyt, tnh ton m phng hay bng cc th nghim nhn to. Ti tin, rng vic x l th nghim v cng hp dn, c nht v nh ny lm giu thm lng tr thc ca kinh t hc, thm ch ca ton b khoa hc x hi bng nhng hiu bit mi. 3. PARADIGM H THNG. Ht nh trong cc cng trnh trc y ca ti, trong cc tiu lun ca cun sch ny cc h thng ln ng hng u trong nhng kho st ca ti. Trong mt tiu lun trc ca mnh ti gi cch tip cn ny l paradigm h thng [h thuyt h thng] (Kornai, 2007, chng 8). Ti trch dn tiu mt cun sch ca nh s hc xy dng l thuyt li lc, Charles Tilly, tiu tm tt ngn gn i tng chnh ca nhng nghin cu ca ng: Big structures, large processes, huge comparisons (Tilly, 1984). Cc cu trc ln, cc qu trnh c tc ng ln, nhng so snh ton din l nhng th thc s kch thch ti. Trong cc cng trnh ca dng ch lu v c bit trong cc bin th pha long lm bt m nt ca n, trong cc sch gio khoa, nhiu khi chnh cc bc tranh ln ny li nht nht, cc ng vin sc nt b m i, trong khi nhng chi tit c v mt cch tinh t li o o vo c hc sinh. 4. SUY NGM LI VIC M T TH TRNG. Trong cc cng trnh ca mnh ti c bit ch n mi quan h ca th trng, ca nh sn xut v ngi tiu th, ngi bn v ngi mua. Ti cho bc tranh v th trng, m ngi ta c nhi nht vo u hc sinh trong cc cua 14

kinh t hc vi m, l c n gin ha mt cch thi qu. Khng phi l tai ha, rng gio vin chiu ln mn hnh cc m hnh tru tng, bi v mi l thuyt buc phi da trn s tru tng ha. Tai ha l, cc m hnh chun b qua cc nt c trng ht sc ct yu, v v th bc tranh mo m hn su vo nhng ci u. B sung cho cc hc thuyt ca dng ch lu, v tranh lun vi cc hc thuyt ny nhiu im quan trng, ti th v bc tranh trung thc hn ca th trng. S d ti c th m nhim vic ny, bi v kinh nghim sng khc ng ng sau ti. Ti bit nn kinh t thiu ht ca ch ngha x hi, v v th ti cm nhn theo cch khc s d d do ch ngha t bn to ra. Ti bit, s hu t nhn v cnh tranh ca cc nh sn xut-bn hng c ngha l g nhn t quan im hot ng ca th trng, bi v ti bit ci c ch phn b, m theo b my quan liu phn chia cc ca ci. 5. CCH TIP CN THC CHNG VERSUS [I LI] CHUN TC. Trong kh nng c th, ti c gng tch bit s m t thc chng ca tnh hnh, s phn tch cu trc ca n, s khm ph cc quan h nhn qu khi cch tip cn chun tc. Vic ny thc ra khng xung khc vi cc im xut pht ca t duy ca dng ch lu. Th nhng phn ng k cc nh kinh t hc thuc dng ch lu vn ln trnh chuyn ny, rng nhp iu t duy thc chng chn tc xut hin thng xuyn trong cc cng trnh ca h. Ngi ta thng l gii vic n trnh bng nhiu loi l l. Th d bng cch ni, rng ch kho cu thc chng l khoa hc, cn phi cch tip cn chun tc cho cc nh chnh tr hay cc nh trit hc. Nhng ngi khc chn thnh th nhn: h cm thy nhm chn, v hi li thi, rng h trnh by nhng nhn xt ca mnh trong s mp m nc i ny, v v th tt hn h b qua n. Cng c nh kinh t hc, ngi khng dm i mt vi vic dng t duy ca mnh dn n cc kt lun o c nh th no. Hay nu trong s tnh lng ca phng lm vic ca mnh bn thn h cng lm r lp trng chun tc, nhng khng c can m o c vit ra. i vi bn thn mnh ti a ra quy tc bt buc, rng ti hy suy ngm k cc h qu ca phn tch thc chng nhn t quan im ca s thc hin cc gi tr c th bc cao hn. Trong thi k ca ch c ti ton tr phi cn nhc k lng trong s c th v nn vit ra ci g (xem nhng din gii v t kim duyt trong tiu s t thut ca ti, Kornai, 2005, tr. 251253). Quyn t do ngn lun [sau thay i h thng] dp b cc ro cn ny. Chng g ngn ti, cng chng ngn ngi khc chng ta hy lt nga cc con bi ca mnh. Chng ta khng ch vit ra theo cch thc chng, c ci g, m cng vit ra c c ci g m theo phn xt ca ring chng ta l tt hay l xu. Bng vic ny chng ta cng l ra, rng chng ta tch bit ci tt khi ci xu trn c s thang gi tr no. V phn mnh ti ht sc c gng tch bch nghim ngt cch tip cn thc chng v chun tc, v lm cho bn c hiu r 15

h thng gi tr ca ti, m da vo ti lm c s cho cc phn xt ca mnh. Tt nhin chng th mong i bt c ai, rng cc n lc ny xut hin gn nh ip khc trong mi cng trnh, thm ch trong mi chng ca n. Ti hy vng, rng sau khi c bn tiu lun ca cun sch bn c s thy r, tc gi a ra nhng nh gi chun tc ca mnh da trn h thng gi tr nh th no. 6. I HI TNH NGHIM TC. Trong cc thp nin u tin ca con ng nghin cu ca ti cc m hnh l thuyt v nhng tnh ton s dng lng d liu ln nm trung tm cc cng trnh ca ti. Ngc li trong na sau ca s nghip ca mnh, vic trnh by bng li li c trng ng hn cho cc cng trnh ca ti, mc d by gi thi thong cc m hnh ton hc v cc tnh ton kinh t lng cng xut hin trong cc cng trnh ca ti. Ti mun tuyn b: trong con mt ca ti s knh trng tr tu, s tha nhn vai tr to ln ca chng trong vic nhn thc chn l i vi cc m hnh ton l thuyt v cc cng c kinh t lng chng h gim i cht no. Ti mun tch mnh mt cch r rt khi nhng ngi h vang nhng li chng ton hc, v ni mt cch khinh mit v cc phng php khng th thiu c ny ca s nghin cu kinh t hc. Cc tng mi ng k a phn bt u vi s nhn ra bn thn vn : nh nghin cu tin phong cm thy vn ni theo s tin chc ca nhng ngi khc cu tr li l qu quen thuc ri. Giai on u ny ca nghin cu a phn xy ra bng vn xui trong u v cc bi vit ca nh kinh t hc sng to. S pht hin ra vn v xen ln vi vic ny, cc khng nh l thuyt u tin thng thiu chnh xc, v sau nhn li ng hn c th gi l cc phng on. Th nhng nu s pht hin mi, quan trng, s pht minh i u (cutting edge) du trong din t cn c nhng s thiu chnh xc i na, th iu quan trng nht l n hin hu! N khiu khch cc bc hc khc, cc nh bc hc ni ting v t ni ting hn, i qun ca ngnh cng nghip nghin cu tranh lun v tin hnh nhng nghin cu tip theo. Trong pha th hai ny, ga cc th khc, m hnh ton hc v s i snh khng nh vi kinh nghim thc t nh s kim tra ton-thng k, tr nn c bit hu ch. Cc cng c ny cho s gip ht sc quan trng cho vic din t chnh xc hn, sc nt hn cc phng on u tin, cho vic hiu k lng hn cc mi quan h. Giai on th ba: vic gii ngha cc kt qu nghin cu l thuyt, c th l vic rt ra cc kt lun chnh sch kinh t thc tin. y li phi ra khi th gii tru tng ca m hnh

16

ton hc. Chng ta cng mun tin gn hn n thc t, chng ta cng phi a cc nt c trng b b qua mt cch ch trc vo bc tranh do nh nghin cu v ra.3 Chuyn by gi ti a trnh by ni dung mun ni ca mnh bng li hn, trc ht c th gii thch l v, nh ni im trc: cc h thng ln, cc mi quan h ln v cc qu trnh ln ngy cng kch thch ti hn. Ti khng coi mnh c kh nng din t ni dung mun ni ca ti by gi bng cc cng c m hnh ton hc. Nhng ti rt vui, nu cc nh nghin cu khc din t cc cu trc v cc qu trnh c m t trong cun sch ny ch t mt phn, phng to nt c trng ny hay khc ca chng bng cc m hnh ton hc. Sai lm nghim trng i tin, rng ngn ng ton hc l cng c cn v din t nghim ngt mt dng t duy. Khi Neumann Jnos, ngi khng l ny ca ton hc bt u lm ton kinh t, ng khng nh: Ci c v c bit kh trong kinh t hc, l vic nh ngha cc phm tr (...) s thiu tnh chnh xc lun lun bt ngun t lnh vc khi nim... (Neumann, 1955). Khng phi ch mt m hnh ton kinh t to ra v b ngoi ca tnh chnh xc, bi v nu chng ta co mt cht cc khi nim xut hin trong , th ha ra l vic xc nh chng b nha i. Trong cc cng trnh ca mnh (v c trong cc tiu lun c cng b y na) ht ln ny n ln khc ti li ra cc thut ng kinh t quen thuc, v ti th suy ngm li v s gii ngha ca chng, li th lm r cc khi nim. C l vic lm r khi nim trin min cng l nhm chn ri i vi nhiu bn c v ch, i vi ti y l phn cn bn ca n lc t s nghim tc. i hi khc khng th thiu ca tnh chnh xc l tnh nghim ngt logic ca lp lun. Chiu ca quan h nhn qu l g, cc tng tc c u, ci g, l ci c th sp cnh nhau mt cch hp l v vn vn. M hnh ton hc nhiu khi gip trong vic sp xp cc tng mt cch logic, khi khc li ngn cn. C ton hc, ln vn xui ch l ngn ng, m vi n c th m t cc quan h nht nh, nhng chng ngn ng no m bo, rng lp lun l c logic. Chng ta trnh by cc tng ca mnh, d bng cc cng c ton hc, d khng, s mc ni vi nhau ca chng c th c logic hay rm ri, khng mch lc. Cc bn c ca ti c th kim tra, liu cc tiu lun c ph hp hay khng i vi cc i hi c nhc n ca tnh nghim ngt. Ti hy vng, ch t cc bn c s ghi nhn, rng ti c gng ht sc thc hin cc i hi .

Ba giai on c th thy trong m t trn thng khng k tip nhau theo th t, m xy ra song song vi nhau. Ti cng bit, rng c th a ra cc phn th d t lch s khoa hc i vi s ba bc ny: xut hin cc khm ph tin phong, m ngay lp tc vi trang b ton hc y ny ra t u cc nh sng to ra chng.

17

7. NHNG VO LCH S L THUYT. Khi gii thiu kt qu ca cc nghin cu ca mnh ti cng c gng phc ha cc tin lch s l thuyt. Ti khng ch dn chiu n cc cng trnh xut hin trong vi nm gn y trong cc tp ch quan trng nht tt c mi ngi u lm iu ny, v hu nh bt buc. Ti c gng o su nu hp l, du c quay li 100150 nm tm ra tro lu t duy, m ti tip tc truyn thng ca n, hay tranh lun vi n. Ngy nay vic ny khng cn l mt na. Nhiu ngi tha mn vi vic so snh cng trnh ring ca mnh vi cc cng trnh ang thi thng, nng hi, c mi ngi trch dn. Ci m khng c trn Internet, th khng b c ti nghe tuyn b gy kinh hong ny i vi ti khng phi mt ln. Khng h xu h ti m nhn vai bun ca loi b tuyt chng. Vn tip tc kch thch ti, chuyn ti chp nhn ci g t cc hc thuyt ca cc ng t sng lp ca ngnh khoa hc ca chng ta, trong tng tng ti tranh lun vi Adam Smith, Marx, Walras, Hayek v vi cc nh kinh t hc cht lu ri. Ch yu trong tiu lun th hai c th cm nhn c n lc lm r, quan h gia cc tro lu v cc trng phi khc nhau ca lch s t duy kinh t v cc khng nh l thuyt ca ti l g. Cn ti dnh ton b tiu lun th t lm r, ti thy vai tr ca Marx ra sao trong lch s ca l thuyt kinh t v thc tin chnh tr. Vic la chn ti c l gii c bit bi nh hng to ln, m cc t tng ca Marx tc ng n cc ng cng sn chim quyn hng thp k v n s hnh thnh thc h chnh thng ca h thng x hi ch ngha sau khi h ln nm quyn. 8. GING RING T. Cc tiu lun c cng b y ti mt vi ni c ging ring t. Cc bi vit ca ti khc cc tiu lun kinh t chun khng ch v nt c im ny n ca ni dung v phng php lun, m ni ny ni kia c v phong cch na. Cc nh bin tp, cc phn bin v cc tc gi ca cc tp ch hng u coi l quy tc lch s bt buc, rng tiu lun hy lnh lng v t, ht nh mt bo co ton hc hay ha hc. Cng kh khan, cng khoa hc. Nu khng v nhn xng v phi tnh cm, th khng cn l cng trnh hn lm na, m l tiu lun v, phi ni, rng ai s dng t tiu lun trong ng cnh ny, thng pht m t ny vi trng m hi coi thng. Ti khng mun bt u phn tch, ci g khin cho mt vn bn c tnh khoa hc.4 y chng ta i mt vi mt trong nhng vn kh nht ca trit hc khoa hc, c bit trong cc khoa hc x hi vt ln kh khn vi s sng sa khi nim v s chng minh kinh nghim. Bn thn mnh, c l khng c khim tn lm, ti coi cc bi vit ca cun sch

V vn ny xem th d cc cng trnh ca McCloskey (1998), (2002).

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ny, m (bn trong khun kh ca tiu lun) chng s dng cc khi nim c lm r, v chng c lc cng c cc khng nh ca mnh bng dng t duy kt hp, bng lp lun logic v bng nhng quan st thc tin, l cc cng trnh khoa hc, cc tiu lun hn lm. Ti i snh tm nt c trng c nhn mnh trn ca cc cng trnh ca ti vi cc nt c trng in hnh ca dng ch lu. Nu im ring tng mc t c t k trn, khng th ni v mi c im, rng n ch c trng ring cho ti thi. V c tm c im, may thay ti c cc bn hu. Th nhng nu xt c ton b tm c im cng nhau, th ti thc s khng tm thy cc bn thn thit; t ngi chia s vi ti trong su tp c bit ny. Thm ch ti c th t ho v chuyn ny; khng d t cc cng trnh ca ti vo mt ci hp sn c ca lch s l thuyt; khng th lit k lun t duy, phng php nghin cu v phong cch c trng cho ti vo bt c tro lu quen bit no c. Tuy nhin ti phi th nhn, cng c ci g gy au bun trong tnh th ca ti na. Gia cc nh nghin cu ca dng ch lu c mt loi gn b tinh thn. Ngay c nu h c tranh lun vi nhau i na, cc ct tr t tng chnh ca h t nhiu ging nhau v b my cng c ca h ging nhau. H ni mt ngn ng. Ngc li trong th gii heterodoxy-phi chnh thng cc nhm nh tch bit hot ng; mt nhm cng chng ch n ci cc nhm khc to ra. Thc ra h l cc bn ng minh th nhng, mi nhm ring li c n (v vn ny xem Colander v cc cng s, 2004, Rosser v cc ng tc gi, 2010.) Ti hy vng, rng cc gio vin dy kinh t hc s c ngn y s rng lng , trong khi h quy nh cc sch gio khoa v cc cng trnh khc ca dng ch lu nh cc ti liu c bt buc cho cc gi hc ban ngy, th ch t h cng lit k c cun sch nh ny, hay tiu lun ny tiu lun khc c cng b trong v tt nhin cc cng trnh khc, ch na phi chnh thng hay hon ton d gio, nh cc ti liu c t nguyn vo bui ti, gia cc ti liu tham kho. Ni chuyn v tnh trng o to kinh t hc Hungary ngy nay, ti nghe c lp trng sau y: by gi u tin cc sinh vin hy hc t t lng kin thc do dng ch lu cung cp. Nu nm k kin thc , n mc ngay c khi c nh thc khi gic ng l c th ni ngay, th sau hy ng n cc tc phm ngoi dng ch lu. Ti coi th t ny l phng php s phm sai lm! T hng thp k nay bn thn ti c thuyt phc mi bn tr, rng hy hc k kinh t hc dng ch lu. ng bt u ph phn m cha hiu thu o; ng tham gia mt trng phi phi chnh thng m khng nm vng hc liu chun. Nhng vic hiu k l khc, v s chp nhn khng ph phn li l khc. Gio vin gy tai ha ln, nu cy tinh thn n l tr tu vo gii tr. Vi li tng s d ti a trng chuyn Rajk lm tm gng cho cc thanh nin khc, bi v nu cha phi l s ni lon tinh thn, nhng 19

ch t thi ph phn, s m b thc chc b go tr tu hiu theo ngha tt ng tr trong trng. Khi ti khuyn ngh cun sch ca mnh cho h, ti mun th h cc nh kinh t hc tr thm nhun: ng bao gi chp nhn nhng th m cc gio vin v cc sch gio khoa dy mnh m khng c ph phn.

ng h ch ngha t bn vi con mt ph phn Ti chuyn sang bnh lun tiu ca cun sch. Trong nhng ngy ny nhiu ngi s by t th din v tuyn b, rng mnh l tn ca ch ngha t bn. C th h th xoay x, s dng tn ti khc. H tin, chi tai hn, nu h ch ni v nn kinh t th trng. Nghe cn hay hn l t c a vo sau chin tranh nc c: nn kinh t th trng x hi. Vic ny gy ra o tng sai lm, c nh l h chn mt con ng th ba thay cho ch ngha x hi v ch ngha t bn. Trn thc t nc c v cc nn kinh t pht trin khc h thng t bn ch ngha hin i hot ng, m c c trng bi s ti phn phi mnh m v cc dch v cng rng ri gia nhng th khc. C cc tro lu khc nhau v chng c tc ng ng k, m chng khng ch mun cho ch ngha t bn ci tn ho nhong hn, m thc s mun dn x hi sang con ng th ba. Chng mun xy dng loi h thng kt hp mt cch may mn cc nt thun li ca ch ngha x hi v ch ngha t bn, v loi b cc tai ha ca c hai. C cc trng phi cnh t cc oan, tuy khng c bit c nh hng, m chng chng ch ngha t bn kch lit, v mun t h thng x hi ch ngha thay vo . Cc tn ca chng thng thy l cn thit khng nh: h mun xy dng h thng x hi ch ngha khng c nhng ngang tri nghim trng ca ch ngha x hi mt thi gn vi tn Stalin hay Mao Trch ng. V phn mnh ti m nhn vic ni thng, rng ti chng thuc v trng phi k trn no, m ti dt khot ng h ch ngha t bn. Ti khng l tn nhit thnh m qung ca n, ngi ch thy cc thun li ca h thng. Ti khng cho ch ngha t bn l x hi tt, thm ch t nhiu quan im ti thy n l xu, nhng ging nh cch hiu dn ch theo kiu Churchill n vn lun lun l la chn xu nht trong s cc la chn kh d c th tnh n. Quan trng nht, ti nh gi ch ngha t bn chc chn tt hn la chn kh d duy nht c thc hin, h thng x hi ch ngha, rt nhiu. Mt trong nhng nhim v chnh ca cc tiu lun c cng b trong tp sch ny l gii thiu cc c hnh to ln v tht ca ch ngha t bn. Cc sch gio khoa ca dng ch lu ch v ln bc tranh m nht v iu ny, khi chng t vai tr iu phi, cn i ca th 20

trng vo tm im ca phn tch. Tt nhin y l iu cng quan trng. Th nhng quan trng hn th rt nhiu l khng nh to thnh ni dung chnh yu nht ca tiu lun u tin: ch ngha t bn l ng c thc y ca i mi sng to, ca tin b k thut v hin i ha. Hu nh tt c nhng i mi, m hin nhin thuc v cuc sng hng ngy ca chng ta, u do ch ngha t bn to ra. Vic gii thiu cc c hnh ca h thng tng c tt vi s ph phn h thng. Hai mi lm nm trc, khi tp tiu lun Cc mu thun v nhng nan gii (Kornai, 1983) ca ti c xut bn M (Kornai, 1986), Robert Solow, gio s MIT, mt trong nhng nhn vt lnh o ca kinh t hc v m hin i vit khuyn ngh cho ba ca cun sch: Kornai Jnos l loi Jonathan Swift ha nh: mt ngi nhn hu, ngi hiu kinh t hc phng ty, sng trong mt nn kinh t phng ng, v l nh quan st tinh i. Hy cn trng ch : ln sau c l ng ta s vit v chng ta y! Ci ln sau y phi i mt thi gian di, nhng cui cng cng n lt. Ti bt u vo cng vic, m Solow khch l. Ti lm vic t nhiu nm , nu khng nh cc bi vit chm bim ca Swift, nhng ch t trong cc tiu lun chuyn ngnh, ph phn h thng t bn ch ngha. Trong s cc nh kinh t hc ca dng ch lu, nhiu ngi cng m x cc nt ngang tri ca ch ngha t bn. Trong qu trnh ph phn a phn h b ch ngha lc quan u tr chon y. H coi cc tai ha l cc li, m c th c loi b bng s iu tit cn thit ca nh nc, c l c th bng nhng can thip ad hoct xut, thm ch cng c th lng trc v trnh. Chc l c th ni th v mt phn ca nhng s ngang tri. Tuy nhin khng phi cc loi li ny lm ti bn tm. Ti hon ton tin, rng mi h thng k c ch ngha t bn na c cc tai ha bm sinh ca n. Nhng ci ny c m ha trong cc t bo ca h thng. Nhng loi ngang tri nh vy c th c lm nh bt bng cc quy ch cn thit, nhng khng th loi b c. Ch ti din ca cc tiu lun ca ti l vic gii thiu cc tnh cht c th h thng, m c th l cc nt c trng c thun li, ln bt li thng xuyn, ni ti, vn c ca h thng, ngoi ra l s phn tch cc c ch gy ra cc tnh cht c th h thng . Chuyn t tiu lun ny sang tiu lun khc bn c ngy cng hiu k hn, cch tip cn lc quan u tr i vi nhng lo ngi v tai ha Li ? Th th hy ng n v sa i! l khc th no vi s ghi nhn nhiu khi cay ng, rng c cc vn khng c li gii p, c cc tai ha khng th loi tr (nhiu nht c th lm nh bt), m chng ta phi chung sng vi. Cun sch ca ti khng bn n cc vn chnh sch hng ngy hay chnh sch kinh t ca nn kinh t Hungary hm nay. Trong cc bi vit khc ti ni v cc ch thi s nng bng, nhng trong cun sch ny chng tiu lun no c ch Hungary c. Hoc 21

chng bn n h thng t bn ch ngha mt cch tm tt v tng qut, hoc bn trong li ch mt cch tm tt v tng qut v s bin i hu x hi ch ngha. Tuy th, mt cch gin tip, vn c thng ip thi s cho cc cuc tranh lun trong nc. Ti ch nhc n mt trong s cc bi hc c tnh thi s. T lu cng c trn chng trnh ngh s ca nc chng ta, ging nh nhiu nc trn th gii, vn ci bin nh nc phc li v gn vi n l ci c gi l cc ci cch c cu. Nhiu kin cu th, cc cch, khng suy ngm k vang ln, bng li v bng vn bn, trong cc din t ca cc chnh tr gia, cc quan chc chnh ph v cc nh nghin cu. Cun sch ca ti khng phc ha chng trnh hnh ng. Th nhng nhiu tiu lun cng lu n c cc li th, c cc bt li v c nhng ri ro ca chiu hng ny hay chiu hng khc. S m rng hay thu hp cc mng khc nhau ca nh nc phc li c ngha l g nhn t quan im ca i mi sng to v ham mun kinh doanh? Li v hi no ny sinh t vic thu hp cnh tranh, t vic tng cng tp trung? (tiu lun 1. v 2.) Nhng s thay i thc t xy ra trong quan h s hu v cc hnh thc iu phi quan h ra sao vi cc gi tr cui cng, nh t do, bnh ng v bc i? (tiu lun s 3.) Ti nhc n mt phn ca cc thng ip mang tnh thi s ch minh ha. Bn c nhy cm vi cc vn c th rt ra nhiu bi hc thc tin, thi s khc t nhng phn tch c trnh by trn bnh din l thuyt trong cun sch.

Tnh cha hon tt ca cng trnh Ti a cun sch nh ny ra khi tay mnh mt cch khng d dng. S c cm gic tt hn nu thay cho cun sch dy 247 trang, gm bn tiu lun ny cng b mt chuyn kho dy 670 trang vi tiu th ny: H thng t bn ch ngha. Cp i ca cun c tiu H thng x hi ch ngha c xut bn nm 1992, dy 670 trang ca ti. Bn tiu lun trong cun sch c vit trong vi nm gn y. Th nhng cc tng c trnh by y p trong ti t lu. Trong cu chuyn hnh thnh ca chng, ti phi quay li lun vn ph tin s ca mnh, S qu tp trung ca qun l kinh t (1957), m bn tho ca n c hon thnh hn nm mi nm trc. Trong cun sch mi ny, ch yu trong tiu lun th hai, ti ngoan c quay li cc vn , m trong cc cun Anti-equilibrium (1970) v S thiu ht (1980) ca mnh ti t vo tm im ca nhng kho cu ca ti: xt li cc khi nim c bn ca kinh t hc vi m, ph phn t tng cn bng th trng, m t cc trng thi bt i xng ca th trng v vn vn. Bn v ch ngha x hi, t u n cui lun l lng trc mt ti cp i ca n: ch ngha t bn. Tuy cc cng trnh ca ti 22

 nhc n iu ny nhiu ln, nhng by gi n lc vit cng trnh, m trong ch ngha t bn c ni n khng phi mt cch th yu, ph, m h thng ny l ch chnh ca cng trnh. Ti i vng quanh, v by gi quay v im xut pht full circle, nh ngi ta thng ni iu ny bng ting Anh. Xc tn ca ti, rng paradigm, cch tip cn khoa hc, cch t vn , h thng khi nim v phng php lun c hnh thnh v c gii thiu trong cc cng trnh ca ti khng ch thch hp cho vic m t ch ngha x hi v s chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha, m cng c kh nng trong m t v phn tch ch ngha t bn na. N cho thm ci g vo paradigm, h thng khi nim v cc phng php c nhng ngi khc p dng. Ci by gi ti a ra y: l mt torso, mt ci thn. Bc tng, m ngi ta tc c mt na t khi . Khng hong kinh t trm trng lm th gii khn kh, v cun sch ny khng trnh by l thuyt khng hong. Trong khi s ch ca ngnh kinh t hc b chnh sch tin t v ti kha, hot ng ca cc ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh khc thu ht, ghim li, th trong cun sch khng c tiu lun no v h thng ti chnh tin t. Ti c th tip tc k, cn thiu th; lm y phn thiu gia 670 v 247 trang. Ci khng ch gy lo lng cho ti v chc chn cho bn c na l, cc ch quan trng cn cho s hiu ton din h thng t bn ch ngha b b ngoi cun sch, m c chuyn, rng ci c trong cng khng tr thnh mt cu trc khp kn. Mt chui gm bn tiu lun c lp c a n tay bn c. Ti khng gi chng l cc chng ca cun sch, m nh mc lc cng thng bo: l v bn tiu lun. Cch tip cn chung, m ti th m t c trng trong phn trc ca Dn nhp, kt ni chng li vi nhau; cc dn chiu cho nhc n s mc ni ca chng. Th nhng v mt th loi cng chng ng u hon ton; ni ny ni kia vn c s trng lp v s lp li cng chng th loi b c hon ton.5 Sc ti by gi ch c ngn y. Khi cun sch c xut bn, ti 83 tui. L khng thc t i ha vi mnh, rng ti s vit xong cun sch ln dy 670 trang. Ti mun thng bo hon cnh ny mt cch ngay thng vi bn c y trong Dn nhp. Ti th cho thy iu ny bng c vic, rng ti khng cho tiu chnh ca cun sch l: H thng t bn ch ngha, m l mt tiu kim ch hn nhiu: Cc tng v ch ngha t bn. Ti hy vng, rng c l cng trnh ny du cn cha hon thnh cng c th gi cc tng trong bn c. Bit u nu c ngi bt tay vo vic tr li cc cu hi ng c nu ra trong tiu lun, vo vic m hnh ha v kim nghim thc tin h thng t tng c
5

S d khng ngay ch bi v, c th tng tng c, rng nu ngi ta s dng cho mc ch o to khi c l khng phi ton b cun sch, m l mt tiu lun ny hay kia c gn vi ti ca mt hc liu no . V th l hp l sao cho mi tiu lun l c th hiu c mt cch ring bit m khng cn n cc tiu lun khc.

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trnh by bng li. Ti c th ha ngn ny, rng ti s c th a thm c mt hai chng vo ming hon thnh n nay ca cun sch ln hn vn cha c vit. Ti a nhng iu trn vo cun sch nh phn dn nhp. Ti mun kin ngh vi bn c, rng khi n cui cun sch, hy c li ln na. Nhiu th, m ti vit trong dn nhp, s d hiu hn, nu lm quen ri vi bn tiu lun.

*** Trong ch thch u tin ca c bn tiu lun ti cm n tt c nhng ngi gip cho cng trnh c ni n. Ti y, trong Dn nhp, ti ch nhc n nhng ngi ng h vic sp xp ton b cun sch. Ti vt ln nhiu trong cc nm va qua vi cng vic nghin cu ca mnh, khng phi mt ln ti mt can m v c thin hng b cuc. Rng ti vn tip tc, v t n vic xut bn cun sch ny, s ng vin, m ti nhn c t v mnh, t Dniel Zsuzsa, c vai tr then cht. Nu gi nh Zsuzsa khng ng cnh ti, khng ng vin, v khng cho nhng li khuyn khn ngoan, chc chn cc tiu lun ny khng hon thnh. Ti mang n v nhiu s gip , m ti nhn c t Deseo Katalin, Erds Hdi, Fancsovits Rita, Magyari Ildik, Pet Ildik, Remnyi Andrea v Szcsi Kata. Ti khng c kh nng nh trng s cc hnh thc v mc ca s gip khc nhau, v th ti lit k tn theo th t abc. Cm n v s chu o ca h v v cng vic tn tm ca h. Ti a ra ngoi l duy nht: ti cng nhc n ring s cng tc ca Patks Anna. Gn hai thp nin nay c l bin tp vin ca hu nh mi cng trnh ca ti, d l bi bo hay cun sch. Ti cm n s phn, rng mnh c th lm vic cng bin tp vin c bit tn tm v c hiu bit rng, nh Anna. Ti cm thy mnh l ngi may mn, rng mnh c th l thnh vin ca Collegium Budapest, ca trung tm tr tu c mt khng hai ny. y, gia khu thnh Buda ngay c cc bc tng di tch, nhng k nim lch s phi ra t nhng ca s v phong cnh tuyt vi cng to hng khi cho cng vic tr tu, quyn t do nghin cu v tranh lun thc s tip sinh lc cho suy ngh. Ti cm n Nh xut bn Hn lm, trc ht l Fehr Katalin bin tp vin chnh sn sng xut bn nhanh cng trnh ca ti. Budapest, Thng 2-2011 Kornai Jnos

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1. i mi v tnh nng ng
Tng tc ga cc H thng v Tin b K thut*

Bn cht ca s bin i hu-x hi ch ngha c th c tm tt d dng bng vi t: mt nhm ng cc nc chuyn t ch ngha x hi sang ch ngha t bn. S dch chuyn ny bn thn n l bng chng lch s mnh m nht v tnh u vit ca ch ngha t bn i vi ch ngha x hi. Tuy nhin, ngha v ca chng ta l tip tc so snh hai h thng mt cch v t v khng thin kin. Cng phi lm th hn bi v chng ta ang tri qua thi k kh khn, v mt phn ng k dn c cm thy luyn tic ch c sp . Chng ta phi thuyt phc ng bo mnh rng chng ta i ng hng. C nhiu l l ng h nim tin lc quan ny. Ti ch mun gii thch r mt u im ca ch ngha t bn: bn tnh i mi v nng ng ca n. Trong phn u ca bi vit ti lp lun rng s i mi nhanh v tnh nng ng khng phi l hin tng ngu nhin c th xy ra hay khng xy ra, m l mt thuc tnh c th h thng bn r su ca ch ngha t bn. C th ni ngc li ht th v h thng ch ngha x hi. S thiu kh nng ca n to ra cc sn phm mi mang tnh cch mng v s chm tr trong nhng chiu kch khc ca tin b k thut khng phi l do mt s sai lm v chnh sch, m l thuc tnh c th h thng bn r su ca ch ngha x hi. ng tic, u im ln rt d thy ny ca ch ngha t bn li cha nhn c s nh gi cao m n xng ng. N b hu ht mi ngi v thm ch c nhng nh nghin cu chuyn nghip nht v cc h thng la chn kh d khc, b qua hon ton v ti cm thy

Bo co trnh by ti hi ngh UNU-WIDER Suy ngm v Chuyn i: Hai mi nm sau s Sp ca Bc tng Berlin (Helsinki, 18-19, thng Chn, 2009). Ti t lng bit n Julian Cooper, Zsuzsa Dniel, Zsolt Fekete, Thomas Geodecki, Philip Hanson, Jerzy Hausner, Judit Hrkecz, Lszl Karvalics, Zdenek Kudrna, Mihly Laki, Lukasz Mamica, Tibor Meszmann, Dniel Rna, Andrs Simonovits, Katalin Szab v Chenggang Xu, v nhng bnh lun qu gi ca h v s gip tn tu ca h trong thu thp s liu v c bn tho, v cm n Collegium Budapest v s ng h thng xuyn v mi trng nghin cu kch thch. Ti nh gi cao s gip ca Hdi Erds, Rita Fancsovits, Katalin Lvayn Dese, Anna Patks, Ildik Pet, Andrea Remnyi v Lszl Tth trong bin tp bi bo ny.

bc v tht vng khi nhn thy s sao lng , v l ng lc khin ti chn ch cho bi vit ny. Vic bc vo th gii t bn ch ngha to ra cc iu kin ca cc qu trnh i mi v tin b k thut nhanh hn, v cng lm tng cc c hi t nc li dng c hi ny. Nhng n khng m bo thnh cng hon ton ngay lp tc. Phn hai v phn ba ca bi bo s tho lun cc vn ca thi k chuyn i. S bin i V i l mt tng th ca nhiu qu trnh. Th nht, c nhng thay i trong lnh vc chnh tr: s chuyn i t mt nn c ti c ng sang mt nn dn ch a ng. S bin i ny chm dt nhng c quyn c nh nc bo v ca h t tng Marxist-Leninist, v m ng cho s cnh tranh ca cc trng phi t tng khc nhau. Ri c nhng thay i trong lnh vc kinh t: u th ca s hu nh nc c thay th bng u th ca s hu t nhn. Gn vi s bin i ca cc hnh thc s hu, nh hng tng i ca cc c ch iu phi khc nhau cng tri qua nhng thay i trit . Tc ng ca s iu chnh quan liu tp trung tr nn nh hn nhiu, v nh hng ca iu phi th trng v cc th tc phn tn tng nhanh y kch tnh. Nhng thay i chnh tr kinh t su sc ny cng vi nhiu thay i khc cng nhau c ngha l s thay i h thng, tc l s chuyn i t ch ngha x hi sang ch ngha t bn. Khu vc hu-x hi ch ngha cng tri qua mt loi nhng thay i khc trong lnh vc tin b k thut na. Mc d, do tnh ph bin ca n, ti dng t tin b k thut, nhng trong din gii ca ti n l mt hin tng rng hn nhiu. Da vo dng cc sn phm mi v cng ngh mi nh hng ca n vt xa cc kha cnh k thut. N l mt phn ca hin i ho, gy ra nhng thay i su sc trong cuc sng ca chng ta. Ngha ny ca tin b k thut s bc l ra trong ng cnh ca bi bo ca ti. Tin b k thut lun lun din ra, tt nhin, nhng sau 1989 n tng tc mt cch ngon mc. Trong ngh, hay chuyn ngh ca chng ta, tt c cc chuyn gia v chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha tp trung s ch ca h vo nghin cu nhng thay i chnh tr, kinh t v x hi nh l phn ca s Bin i V i. Hy chng ta th nhn mt cch thng thn, c l i khi chng ta c nhc mt cht n tin b k thut, nhng chng ta khng nghin cu k lng s tng tc gia mt mt s thay i h thng, v mt khc s thay i din mo ca chng ta trong vic to ra v s dng cc sn phm mi v cng ngh mi. Bn thn ti trc y chc chn st im ny. Ti vit hai bi bo tng kt cc h qu chnh ca nhng thay i sau 1989, nhng ch tho lun nhng thay i chnh tr v kinh t v tng tc ca chng (Kornai 2000, 2005b). Hm nay ti bt u b vo ci ti

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b st trc y. Nh vy, ch ca phn hai v phn ba ca bi bo ca ti l s tng tc gia s thay i sau 1989 ca h thng v s tng tc ca tin b k thut.

1.1 Ch nga t bn, ch ngha x hi v tin b k thut

Cc sn phm mi mang tnh cch mng Qu trnh phc tp v tin b k thut bao gm nhiu qu trnh-con. Hy bt u vi nhng i mi (inovation) ln, t ph, mang tnh cch mng c minh ho bi 89 th d ca Bng 1.1.6 V chng ta ng ti vai tr ca cc nc x hi ch ngha trong to ra cc sn phm mi mang tnh cch mng, chng ta phi quay li thi im Lin X, nh nc x hi ch ngha u tin, ra i. V th thi k c danh mc bao ph bt u t 1917.

Bng 1.1. Nhng i ni mang tnh cch mng

i mi Nm Nc Cng ty

MY TNH, THNG TIN, TRUYN THNG

Mch tch hp in thoi n phm (Touch-tone) Fax Cp quang Bn tnh in t b ti X l t (Word processing) Microprocessor (b vi x l) My in Laser Modem H iu hnh MS-DOS

1961 1963 1966 1970 1971 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980

USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA

Fairchild AT&T Xerox Corning Bowmar Wang Intel IBM Hayes Microsoft

Ti liu chuyn mn v tin b k thut v i mi phn bit cc sn phm mi v cc cng ngh mi, mc d s xut hin ca hai loi ny thng an xon vo nhau. Th d, trong khi my Xerox l mt sn phm mi, n cng a ra mt cng ngh in n mi. Bn 1 lit k cc sn phm mi, bi v s ni bt ca chng trong cuc sng hng ngy.

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Hard disk drive (b iu khin a cng) Graphical user interface (giao din ho) Laptop (my tnh xch tay) Touch screen (mn hnh chm) Mobil telephone (in thoi di ng) Chut (Mouse) Web search engine (tm kim web) Pendrive ( b iu khin bt) Skype (peer-to-peer phone) Facebook (mng x hi) YouTube iphone (in thoi thng minh c th kt ni internet v dch v a phng tin) i mi

1980 1981 1981 1983 1983 1984 1994 2000 2003 2004 2005 2007

USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA Estonia USA USA USA

Hard disk drive Xerox Epson Hewlett-Packard Motorola Apple WebCrawler IBM Skype Facebook YouTube Apple

Nm

Nc

Cng ty

GIA DNG, THC PHM, MC Ti tr (Tea bag) My sy tc in cm tay Wall plug (vt n cm tng) Spin-dryer (my xoay lm kh) My nng lt bnh m t ny Bn l hi in T lnh in iu ho nhit trong nh n Neon C ph ho tan My in sy qun o Nylon My pha c ph Expresso (p sut cao) L vi sng Qun n Drive-through (khch vn trn xe) Giy bng Saran (gi , thc n) 1920 1920 1920 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1938 1938 1938 1939 1946 1947 1948 1949 USA USA UK USA USA USA USA USA USA Switzerland USA USA Italy USA USA USA Joseph Krieger Hamilton Beach Rawlplug Co. Savage Waters Genter Co. Eldec General Electric Carrier Engineering Co. General Electric Nestle Hamilton Manufacturing Co. DuPont Gaggia Raytheon In-n-Out Burger Dow Chemical

28

Polyester bp Tefal Hook-and-loop fastener (ci gn mc-vng) Giy in kinh n Halogen My ch bin thc phm (Food processor) Tetra Pak (ng gi thc phm lng) Lon ng thc ung (Beverage can) i mi

1953 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1963 Nm

USA France USA UK USA USA Sweden USA Nc

DuPont Tefal Velcro Reebok GE Roboot-Coupe Tetra Pak Pittsburgh Brewing Co. Cng ty

SC KHO, M PHM Bng dnh -Adhesive bandage (Band-aid) Khn giy lau mt - Facial tissue (Kleenex) Khn giy lau tay - Paper towel My co ru in Bnh xt-Aerosol container T lt dng mt ln -Disposable diaper My tr thnh Transistor Roll-on deodorant (ln kh mi) Dao co ru dng mt ln Cht ty lng (liquid detergent) i mi 1921 1924 1931 1931 1947 1949 1952 1955 1975 1982 Nm VN PHNG Bng dnh (Bng Scotch nhy p sut) Bt bi Cht lng (trng) bi sa (ch) My sao - Copy-machine Post-it (tp giy dn nh) 1930 1943 1951 1959 1980 GIAO THNG Thang cun (Escalator) Parking meter (ng h o thi gian xe) 1921 1935 USA UK Otis Dual Parking Meter Co. USA Argentina USA USA USA 3M Biro Pens Mistake Out Haloid Xerox 3M USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA Nc Johnson&Johnson Kimberley-Clark Scott Paper Co. Schick Airosol Co. Johnson&Johnson Sonotone Mum BIC Procter&Gamble Cng ty

29

Scooter (m t bnh nh) My bay phn lc dn dng Hp en (my bay)

1946 1952 1958 GII TR

Italy USA UK

Piaggio Comet S.Davall & Son

Drive-in cinema (rp xem film ngi trn xe) My nh chp ly ngay (Instant camera) Walkman Ci iu khin t xa TV (Remote control) chi xy dng bng nha Bp b Barbie (doll) ng h eo tay Quartz Video Casette Recording (VCR) Khi Rubik (Rubiks cube) CD Video-game xch tay (Digital) camera s Bn sch trn internet DVD i mi

1933 1948 1949 1956 1958 1959 1969 1971 1980 1982 1989 1991 1995 1996 Nm

USA USA Japan USA Denmark USA Japan The Netherlands USA The Netherlands, Japan Japan USA USA Japan Nc

Hollingshead Polaroid Sony Zenith Lego Mattel Seiko Philips Ideal Toys Sony, Philips Nintendo Kodak Amazon Philips, Sony, Toshiba Cng ty

THNG MI NGN HNG Supermarket (siu th) Xe mua hng (Shopping cart) Shopping mall (Khu mua hng) Charge card (th chi tiu) Credit card (th tn dng) My giao dch t ng (ATM) Vn chuyn nhanh Bar code (m vch) E-commerce (thng mi in t) 1930 1937 1950 1950 1958 1967 1973 1974 1998 USA USA USA USA USA UK USA USA USA King Kullen Humpty Dumpty Supermarket Northgate Mall Diners Club Bank of America Barclays Bank Federal Express IBM EBay

Ghi ch. Cc mc c chn t mt tp hp ln hn ca nhng i mi c iu tra trong cc su tp v danh mc khc

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nhau v cc pht minh v i mi quan trng. Tiu chun chnh chn l tnh thch ng i vi cc nhm ngi dng ln, c a s dn chng bit n, v khng ch i vi mt nhm nh cc chuyn gia. Mt s tiu chun chn c tho lun trong vn bn: (1) Danh mc cha ch cc i mi theo kiu Schumpeterian. V th, nhng i mi c khi xng v ti tr ch yu bi qun i b loi tr. (2) Khng bao gm cc sn phm v dch v dng cho chm sc y t, tc l cc loi thuc, cc thit b chn on, v.v., n gin do kh khn la chn ra cc i mi ln nht t hng trm hng ngn tn dc v thit b mi. (C l trong giai on nghin cu mun hn khu vc ny c th c bao gm. ) Ngun. Ngun ca nhiu mc l Ceruzzi (2000) v Harrison (2004, 2005.) Ngun ca mi mc c trong h s v tc gi sn sng cung cp theo yu cu.

T 1917 nhiu i mi c tm quan trng ln lao ny sinh. C th tranh ci v sao chnh xc 89 sn phm ny li c k trong bng, v chng ta c l c th thy thm 25 hay 50 sn phm khng km phn quan trng. S la chn l ty , tuy vy danh mc c v thch hp minh ha rng tt c nhng i mi c nhc ti y trong phm vi hp hay rng hn lm thay i c bn tp qun hng ngy ca ngi dn trong cng vic, tiu th, gii tr v quan h vi nhau.7 S pht trin nhanh ca khu vc cng ngh cao, cch mng xy ra trong cc lnh vc x l thng tin, lun chuyn thng tin v truyn thng ng vai tr ni bt trong qu trnh tin b k thut. Tuy vy, Bng 1.1 cho thy rng khi tho lun tin b k thut, th khng ch ni v s pht trin ca khu vc cng ngh cao v cc tc ng trc tip ca n. Vn phng v nh my, giao thng, vic mua hng, vic nh, gio dc u thay i. Mi quan h gia ch v ni lm vic khc i, vic i li cng thay i v chng ta c th lit k tip rt di nhng tc ng ca s i mi gy ra s o ln thng xuyn v s ti t chc cuc sng. Th gii hin i tr nn nng ng bi dng chy khng ngng ca nhng i mi. Chng ta coi thi i ca chng ta nng ng hn cc thi k trc, bi v c nhiu i mi c a ra hn, m chng gy ra nhng thay i su sc hn nhiu trong cuc sng hng ngy ca chng ta. Trong s 89 i mi khong 25-30 lin quan n my tnh, thit b s v thng tin. Nhm ny thu ht s ch mnh nht ca cng chng v th gii hn lm. Lng ti liu chuyn mn ln v tng nhanh nghin cu cc tc ng x hi ca X hi Thng tin. (C l cng trnh c nh hng nht trong lnh vc ny l Castells, 1996-1998. Xem c Fuchs 2008.) Bi bo ca ti khng th thm nhp su vo ch hp dn ny, bi v ti mun bao ph mt tp rng hn ca nhng i mi. Khong 60 t 89 trong danh mc l nhng i mi khng lin quan hay khng lin quan cht n cuc cch mng trong lnh vc thng tin-truyn thng.
7

Cc lp i mi nht nh b loi tr khi la chn. Cc tiu chun loi tr c gii thch mt phn trong ch thch cui bng, v mt phn trong cc on mun hn ca bi bo.

31

Tha nhn mt cch ton tm tm quan trng khc thng ca thng tin v truyn thng, c v s c nhng i mi trong nhiu lnh vc ngoi lnh vc ny. i vi dn c ngho nht ca lng qu Albania hay Siberia th a t lnh vo hay s xut hin ca siu th c th ng gp cho s thay i quan trng trong cch sng cn vic dng my tnh c th n mun hn. Ti mun tho lun cc vn no ca tin b k thut nh mt ton th, tc l, s thay i k thut lin quan v khng lin quan n cch mng thng tin v truyn thng. Sng ch (invention) i trc i mi (innovation). Bc u tin do nh sng ch tin hnh: nh nghin cu chuyn nghip hay nghip d, hc gi hn lm hay k s ca cng ty l ngi m t tng mi xut hin. Tuy nhin, tnh c o ca tng, tnh mi ca n, v tnh ti tnh ca n l hon ton khng . Trong bc th hai, sng ch tr thnh mt i mi: s a vo thc tin bt u, tc l, s t chc sn xut v truyn b sn phm mi, hay p dng mt hnh thc t chc mi. Nu chng ta chuyn s ch ca mnh n giai on hai ny, ti s thc hin thc tin ca thay i (Bng 1.1 cho bit nc trong cng ty i mi hot ng), khng c ngoi l, chng ta s c thy tn ca cc nc t bn ch ngha y. V giai on c kho st bao gm ton b thi k trong h thng x hi ch ngha tn ti, r rng l khng c trng hp no nh tin phong i mi mt nc x hi ch ngha c.8

i theo nhng ngi tin phong, s truyn b i mi Trong khi i mi c tnh cch mng l thnh phn quan trng nht ca tin b k thut, cn c cc thnh phn khc na. Nh tin phong c cc ngi i theo. Bn cnh nh i mi u tin, sau mt thi gian tr, cc t chc khc thuc nhiu loi tham gia vo nhng ci thin nh v cht lng, thc hin cc sng ch nh nhng khng phi khng ng k, trong qu trnh truyn b, ph bin. i mi xut hin u tin mt nc no , nhng ri nhng ngi i theo cng xut hin cc nc khc na. H thng x hi ch ngha rt nhiu lnh vc lm theo cc sng ch tin phong sinh ra mt nc t bn ch ngha, din ra di cc hnh thc a dng. i khi ch l s bt chc. S lp li n thun m hnh, c l s sao chp thay th tm thi ca n, l vic n gin. Khm ph ra b mt l nhim v tng i kh hn. S ti sng ch cc sng ch c patent bo v v b mt kinh doanh hu nh pht trin thnh ngh thut cc nn kinh t
8

Bng 1.1 loi tr nhng i mi c khi xng trong khu vc qun s ca nn kinh t, v nhng i mi c a ra cng c sc mnh qun s ca t nc l mt vn khc. Khu vc qun s a ra cc i mi xut hin u tin mt nc x hi ch ngha. Ti s quay li im sau.

32

x hi ch ngha. Tnh bo cng nghip, n cp quyn s hu tr tu, l mt kh nng.9 Tuy vy, bt chp cc mu tnh a dng, lin quan n cc qu trnh ny nn kinh t x hi ch ngha l bc chm chp ng sau nn kinh t t bn ch ngha.
Bng 1. 2: tr i theo cc nh i mi dn u: Cc vt liu nha
tr Lin Sn phm Nh i mi Ngi i theo u tin Ngi i theo th hai X 1936 19551959 1940 1947 19571959 1970 Sau nh i mi (nm) Cellophane Polystyrene PVC Silicon polymers Keo Epoxy Polypropylene France Germany Germany USA Switzerland USA Germany Italy 1917 1930 1931 1941 1936 1957 1957 1957 U.K. 1959 France 1960 13 USA USA USA Germany USA 1924 1933 1933 1950 1947 Germany Italy Japan Japan Germany, UK 1925 1943 1939 1951 1955 19 2529 9 6* 2123

* Trong trng hp ny Lin X i theo nc tin phong nhanh hn cc nn kinh t t bn ch ngha [i theo].

Ngun. Amann, Cooper and Davies 1977, pp. 272285.

Ti lu hai chi tit. Th nht, trong cc nc x hi ch ngha tr ny, s chm tr sau cc nh tin phong, l ln hn ng k so vi cc nc t bn ch ngha. (Xem, th d, s liu cc Bng 1. 2 v 1. 3.) Xem xt mt thi k di hn, tr o bng nm hu nh tng thay cho co li.
Bng 1.3: tr i theo cc nh i mi dn u: Cc my cng c c iu khin
Lin X t c nm Bt u nghin cu Prototype u tin Bt u sn xut cng nghip* Trung tm sn xut my u tin H thng iu khin th h ba u tin S dng my tnh iu khin u tin 1949 1958 1965 1971 1973 1973 M 2 6 8 12 7 6 Lin X (+i trc ,i sau) so vi Anh 1 2 2 (10) (5) (4) Nht +4 +1 5 (5) 5 Ty c +6 1 10 (5) (4)

Ghi ch: ( ) c lng * 50 n v hay hn trong mt nm. Ngun. Amann, Cooper and Davies 1977, p. 41.

Vic ly cp s hu tr tu Phng Ty trong lnh vc cng ngh cao b cc ro cn khc nhau ngn tr, th d do s cm on c thc thi nghim ngt v xut khu cc sn phm nht nh cho cc nc cng sn (ci gi l danh mc cm vn [COCOM] v cc sn phm dng cho cc mc ch qun s.) Bt chp s cm ngt, s hp tc ca cc tnh bo ti tnh v cc chuyn gia k thut thnh cng chun qua cc l hng ca cc ro cn.

33

V th hai, s truyn b, ph bin cc sn phm mi v cc cng ngh mi nhanh hn rt nhiu cc nc t bn ch ngha so vi cc nc x hi ch ngha. (Th d, xem Bng 1.4 v Hnh 1.1.)
Bng 1.4: S thm nhp ca cng ngh hin i: Ngnh thp, c lin tc (phn trm) c lin tc trn tng sn xut 1970 1980 CC NC X HI CH NGHA 0 0 0 2 0 14 0 36 0 4 0 18 4 11 CC NC T BN CH NGHA 1 41 4 50 6 59 12 49 2 27 4 20 8 46

Nc Bulgaria Czechoslovakia ng c Hungary Ba Lan Rumania Lin X

1987 10 8 38 56 11* 32 16 93 90 93 67 65 58 88

Php Italy Nht Bn Ty Ban Nha Vng quc Anh Hoa K Ty c * 1986 Ngun. Finansy i Statistika (Finance and Statistics, Moscow) 1988, p. 109.

34

Hnh 1.1
S thm nhp ca cng ngh hin i: Ngnh thp, thp oxy (Thp oxy, phn trm ca tng sn lng thp)

Ngun. Amann, Cooper and Davies 1977, p. 97.

Cc bng v hnh c gii thiu y ch l cc minh ho. Khi lng ln bng chng kinh nghim trong cc ti liu kinh t so snh cng ng h nhn nh rng h thng x hi ch ngha chm chp trong vic i theo cc i mi tin phong.10

Tinh thn khi nghip i mi di ch ngha t bn Nh th, ch ngha t bn to ra tt c cc i mi t ph v nhanh hn rt nhiu trong cc kha cnh khc ca tin b k thut kinh nghim lch s cung cp bng chng khng th bc b c. Tuy nhin, hy chng ta thm vo s gii thch nhn qu ca s khc bit ct yu mang tnh h thng . Trong ch ngha t bn nh khi nghip ng mt vai tr xut chng.11 Bi bo ca ti chp nhn thut ng ny theo ngha c Joseph Schumpeter (1912/1934) dng. Vt qu thut ng, cc l thuyt ca Schumpeter v s pht trin v bn cht ca ch ngha t bn

Cc cng trnh thc nghim quan trng nht v ch ny l cc cun sch ca Amann, Cooper v Davies (1977, 1982). Xem c Berliner (1976), Hanson (1981), Hanson v Pavitt (1987).
11

10

Khng phi tt c cc nh khi nghip (entrepreneur) l cc nh i mi (Baumol v Schilling, 2008). Bi bo ny tp trung vo mt lp cc k quan trng, cc nh khi nghip tham d vo qu trnh i mi.

35

li du n trong thng ip ca bi bo ny.12 (Xem c Baumol, 2002. Ngay u cun sch ca ng tm c ct li thc ca hin tng m ti sp tho lun: The Free-Market Innovation Machine: Analyzing the Growth Miracle of capitalism: C my i mi th trng t do: Phn tch s Tng trng K diu ca ch ngha t bn.) Tinh thn khi nghip i mi (innovative entrepreneurship) l mt chc nng, mt vai tr, c th c thc hin bi mt c nhn n l hay bi s hp tc vi mt hay nhiu i tc, hay vi s h tr ca mt hng nh. Hoc thm ch mt hng ln c th hot ng nh mt nh khi nghip. im chnh l, nh khi nghip l ngi to cc iu kin ti chnh v nhn lc cn thit m s i mi cn n, ni cch khc, cc ngun lc con ngi, cc thit b vt cht v cc ngun lc ti chnh cn cho hot ng. Nh khi nghip l ngi tm ni p dng; l ngi ch huy s thc hin thay i. Nhiu khi thi gian di tri i trc khi mt sng ch c ha hn c mt nh khi nghip thc s chn. (Ta c th thy rt nhiu th d v s tr ny trong cun sch nm 1995 ca Rogers. Xem c Freeman, 1982, pp. 111-112.) Rt c th xy ra nhiu ln rng mt sng ch hay pht minh v mt nh khi nghip khng tm thy nhau. May mn thay, kh thng xuyn l s kt hp c tin hnh. T Bng 1.1 c th thy bao nhiu loi i mi khc nhau l c th: khng ch l cc sn phm mi, hay cc cng ngh mi, m c cc hnh thc t chc mi na. Trong hu ht cc trng hp nh khi nghip Schumpeterian lo li qu trnh i mi trong vic thc hin u tin ca i mi mang tnh cch mng. Truyn b, tc l qu trnh i theo i mi tin phong, hu ht cng c cc nh khi nghip tin hnh. khi u ca tin trnh sng kin xut hin. Th d, trong nm 1996 Larry Page, mt nghin cu sinh Stanford, tm kim ti lun vn tin s. Mt s vn c th v lt internet thu ht s ch ca anh. Anh kt hp vi mt nghin cu sinh khc, Sergey Brin. H pht trin phn mm tm kim -search engine. Trn trang nh Stanford n nhn c ci tn google.stanford.edu. Trong cu chuyn ny hai thanh nin ny hp nht hai vai tr thng tch bit nhau: h l cc nh sng ch v ng thi l cc nh i mi. B qua tt c cc giai on trung gian, hy nhy n thi im hin nay. Google l mt trong nhng cng ty ln nht v giu nht trn th gii.13 Mng li rng khp th gii ca n s dng khong 450.000 my ch (server). Ti khng thch chi ch mt cch nng ni, nhng tc ng ca

12 13

V ng gp ca Schumpeter i vi khoa hc x hi, xem Hertje (2006) v McCraw (2007).

V mt gii thiu sc tch v cu chuyn ca Google, xem tm tt ngn ca chnh cng ty (Google, 2009) v mc v Google trong Wikipedia (2009a).

36

Google t ra l c tm quan trng mang tnh cch mng.14 (Ti s quay li cu chuyn ca Google, nhng ch minh ho cc c trng chung ca qu trnh i mi xy ra trong mi trng t bn ch ngha.) Hy ti tm tt cc c trng c th ca nn kinh t t bn ch ngha khng ch lm cho qu trnh i mi l c th, m cng a n vo, pht trin v y n lin tc. A. Sng kin c phn tn. Larry Page v Sergey Brin khng nhn c bt c n t hng no t cc cp trn ca h gii quyt mt nhim v i mi c th. H chng phi yu cu s cho php t cc cp trn ca h lm vic theo mt hng c bit ca mt hot ng i mi. Cc c nhn v nhng ngi ra quyt nh ca cc hng nh, hay cc tng gim c ca cc cng ty ln ni cch khc, cc thc th tch bit hot ng bn trong ton b h thng t quyt nh cho mnh ci h mun lm. B. Phn thng khng l. Ngy nay Page v Brin l nhng ngi giu nht th gii.15 Khng phi l nhim v ca bi bo ny phn tch cc th lng nan o c kh khn v phn b thu nhp. Phn thng ln th no l t l vi thnh tch? Mt im l chc chn: cc i mi thnh cng nht thng (khng lun lun, nhng rt thng xuyn, vi xc sut cao) dn n cc phn thng v cng ln.16 Di phn thng tri ra kh khng u. mt thi cc ta thy cc ng ch ca nhng ca ci khng l: nhng ngi nh Bill Gates, hay trong cc th h gi hn nh gia nh Ford hay gia nh Dupont. Nh khi nghip dn u tin b k thut c kh nng thu c mt khon tin t c quyn khng l. ng l ngi u tin, ngay c mt cch tm thi, bi v n to ra a v c quyn. Phn thng ti chnh khng l thng i cng vi uy tn, tn tui v ting tm. C. Cnh tranh. im ny l khng th tch ri c vi im trc. S cnh tranh mnh, thng tn nhn, xy ra thu ht khch hng. i mi nhanh hn v thnh cng hn khng phi l cng c duy nht cho mc ch , nhng l mt cng c rt quan trng kim c li th cnh tranh i vi cc i th ca mnh. D. Th nghim rng ln. phi c hng trm, c l hng ngn nh khi nghip mun tm cc cng c thch hp tm kim trn internet. Ch c t ngi t s t ph ln gn
Da vo kinh nghim c nhn ca mnh, ti th nhn rng n cng lm thay i thi quen nghin cu ca ti na. L khc l nh nghin cu trong thi i Google so vi trc y, trong thi i Gutenberg.
15
16

14

Theo xp hng ni ting ca tp ch Forbes, h ngang nhau hng 5 ti Hoa K.

Cu chuyn ca Google ng hn c th c coi l trng hp c nht, ni nh sng ch tin phong v nh i mi cng l nhng ngi . Trong cc trng hp thng xuyn hn, cc vai nh sng ch v nh i mi c tch bit, nh sng ch trong mt s trng hp c, cn trong cc trng hp khc li khng, t c li ch t sng ch hay pht minh. Trng hp sau l s phn ca chut my tnh. Nh sng ch Douglas Engelbart khng nhn c phn thng ti chnh cho sng ch thin ti ca ng. Apple, cng ty i mi i tin phong trong sn xut hng lot, to ra rt nhiu li nhun da vo sng ch ny.

37

nh cc nh sng lp ca Google, tuy nhin, nhng ngi khc cng c kh nng thc hin nhng i mi vi thnh cng kh ln, trung bnh hay nh. V phi c nhiu, kh nhiu ngi th nhng tht bi. Chuyn qu th d, cho n nay cha c ai nh gi s lng cc th nghim i mi xut hin lin tc trong mi lnh vc di ch ngha t bn v phn b ca thnh cng hay tht bi ca h. Nhng ngi c c n tng v hot ng rt quan trng ny ch c th cm nhn mt cch trc gic s khng l ca nhng c gng th, v so snh vi nhng thnh cng ngon mc him c nh ca Google, Microsoft, Tetrapack, Nokia hay Nintendo. Nhiu ngi rt c ti c thc y chnh xc cho i mi, bi v mc d vi xc sut kh nh n ha hn thnh cng l thng, v thm ch vi xc sut ln hn mt thnh cng va phi nhng vn ng k tr thnh hin thc v l l do v sao li ng chp nhn ri ro tht bi. E. T bn d tr nm i c u t; tnh linh hot ca ti tr. Hai nh sng lp ca Google c th tip cn n cc ngun lc ti chnh cho php h khai trng hot ng i mi, vic phn phi. Nh nghin cu thnh cng v nh i mi Andy Bechtolsheim (ngi tnh c cng l mt doanh nhn giu c) ngay t u ca qu trnh th vo ti mnh tm tp sc v k mt t sc 100.000 dollar. Mt hot ng kinh doanh i mi him khi c thc hin ch t ngun lc ring ca mnh. Mc d cng c th d nh vy, vic nh n cc ngun lc bn ngoi l ph bin hn nhiu.17 Cc hnh thc a dng m ra cc ngun lc bao gm vay ngn hng, cc nh u t sn sng tham gia kinh doanh, hay cc nh ch vn mo him - venture capital chuyn mn ho v cc d n c ri ro c bit cao v c tin thng ln trong trng hp thnh cng (Bygrave v Timmons, 1992). V c bn, cn n vn kh dng linh hot thc hin v truyn b nhanh cc i mi tin phong, k c vic th nghim rng ri, v bn trong , cc n lc cui cng khng thnh cng.18

17

Khng nghi ng g, c mi lin h gia cc t bt pht (boom) kinh t ca cc giai on i mi ln v s tng ln ca lng tn dng sn c. Tin c th tip cn d dng gip tin b k thut nhng cng dn n nguy c ca s hnh thnh bong bng. Tht ng lc c li Schumpeter khi phn tch lch s i trc cuc khng hong hin thi (Schumpeter 1939, c bit Chng IV.) S cm d to ln tho lun kha cnh ny tht ng tic b gii hn bi di ca bi bo (ch c th dng).
18

S th nghim c mt vai tr v gi trong cc qu trnh sng ch v i mi. Ch gia s rt nhiu cc cuc th mi xut hin mt sng ch thnh cng. V sau giai on , t nhiu sng ch c kh nng ng vng v hu ch ch c mt t ph v pht trin thnh mt i mi thnh cng v thng mi. (V tm quan trng ca th nghim xem Thomke 2003.)

38

Ti khng khng nh rng tinh thn khi nghip kiu-Schumpeterian l cch duy nht to ra cc qu trnh i mi trong mt h thng t bn ch ngha. Hy ti nhc ti ch ba trong s nhiu khung kh phi-Schumpeterian khc. (i) Trong nhiu trng hp mt i mi quan trng c qun i khi xng, ti tr v thc hin. Th d, trong cc nm 1960 c mt nhu cu ln c Pentagon by t tm cc cch ca mt dch v th tn hon ton phn tn nhm m bo rng s ph hu trung tm ca h thng bu chnh khng dn n s sp ca truyn thng vn bn. Nhu cu ny ca qun i v s h tr ti chnh ho phng cho nghin cu theo hng dn n mt i mi cch mng, n vic to ra th in t, e-mail, mt cng c bn tay v hnh c phn tn hon ton cho truyn thng. Mc d vo giai on sau h thng e-mail khng mt tin, phi-li nhun c bn xon vo cc hot ng theo hng li nhun thng mi hn, e-mail vn l th d c in ca mt i mi phi-Schumpeterian. Trong khi di ch ngha x hi cnh tranh b loi b trong nn kinh t dn s c qun l tp trung quan liu, Lin X v cc ng minh ca mnh dnh lu ch t vo cuc chy ua qun s vi Phng Ty, trc ht vi Hoa K. Cuc tranh ua sng cht ny t qu trnh i mi di p lc mnh to ra i mi to ln. V tinh nhn to u tin, Sputnik, c Lin X to ra. S chm chp ca tin b k thut trong khu vc dn s b bc b bi cc mc tiu tng th ca s dn u, gi nhp vi, hay thm ch vt ln trc s pht trin ca cc lc lng qun s phng Ty. Nhng khi n vic p dng dn s ca mt i mi qun s, s km ci ca h thng x hi ch ngha li hin ra. Ti Hoa K theo sau cc ng dng qun s tin phong l vic dng v tinh cho cc ng dng dn s, dn n nhng ci thin nhanh chng v cht lng v hiu sut trong mi lnh vc truyn thng. Trong khi Soviet ng dng dn s i theo ch sau mt thi gian tr di. Th d v v tinh chng minh rng hnh ng c tp trung trong mt h thng tp trung quan liu cao c th to ra cc kt qu ngon mc nhng khng c cng hiu ng lan to mnh nh cc i mi ln xut hin trong ch ngha t bn khi nghip, c phn tn. (ii) Trong cc trng hp nht nh, nhng nghin cu quan trng v mun hn, s truyn b sng ch, c khi xng v ti tr bi khu vc dn s, phi-qun s ca chnh ph, th d bi cc c quan ph trch chm sc y t. (iii) Trong nhiu trng hp nhng i mi c khi xng, v cng c thc hin bi mt nhm t xut ca cc nh nghin cu, hay bi mt hip hi, hay bi mt t chc phi chnh ph v bt-v li. l cch, th d, mt trong nhng i mi quan trng nht, thc s cch mng, world-wide-web bt u. (Xem hi k ca nh tin phong, Berners-Lee, 1999.) Nhiu i mi quan trng khc trong lnh vc my tnh, cc ng dng k thut s, thng tin 39

v truyn thng bt u theo cch kt hp, dn s, bt-v li ny ca i mi phiSchumpeterian. Chp nhn tm quan trng ca cc qu trnh phi-Schumpeterian, hu ht cc i mi t ph i theo ng Schumpeterian. iu chc chn ng i vi cc i mi nhm ti th trng cc hng ho v dch v tiu dng cho s dng thc tin trong i sng hng ngy. V ngay c i mi phi-Schumpeterian ban u c nhiu ng dng theo hng li nhun i theo mt cch in hnh, v cc nh i mi theo hng thng mi thc hin phn ln hn ca vic truyn b rng ri.

S bt kh ca tinh thn khi nghip i mi di ch ngha x hi Chuyn sang ch ngha x hi, chng ta hy bt u bng quay li pha trc ca i mi, c th l sng ch. Nhng b c sng to cng sng cc nc x hi ch ngha. Cc nh khoa hc v cc k s xut sc lm vic , nhng ngi to ra nhng pht minh quan trng v cc sng ch trng i mang tnh cch mng, vi tim nng c p dng trong cng nghip v thng mi. Th d u tin l nh vt l Soviet Abram Joffe, ngi c coi trong lch s khoa hc nh mt trong nhng nh tin phong v cht bn dn, cht c vai tr v cng quan trng ngy nay trong ngnh in t. ng a ra cc pht minh ca mnh trong cc nm 1930 nhng mi trng kinh t n gin khng cho php a vo p dng cng nghip. Mun hn nhiu vic sn xut cc cht bn dn do M, Nht Bn, i Loan v Hn Quc p o; cn Lin X th lt bc theo sau gia cc nc i theo chm ca cc nc dn u.19 Jacek Karpinski, mt k s v nh khoa hc Ba Lan sng ch ra my tnh-mini u tin gia 1971 v 1973. Tn ng c bit n gia cc nh tin phong v i ca cng ngh my tnh. Tuy nhin, sng ch ca ng khng tr thnh mt i mi c ph bin rng ri trong khi ng sng trn t Ba Lan. Mun hn Karpinski di c, v sng ch ca ng, cnh tranh vi cc sang ch tng t, tr thnh mt i mi ph bin trong th gii t bn ch ngha. Th d Hungary ni ting nht l chuyn v khi Rubik (cube). Ti lit k chi ti tnh ny gia cc i mi t ph, v n chc chn c mt ch chnh ng . Nh i mi, Ern Rubik, th bt u phn phi ton cu, sau khi thy phn ng nhit tnh ca tt c
19

u tin cc gii thng nh nc cao nht n vi Joffe nh ma, v ng nhn c nhng vinh d hn lm cao qu, nhng trong nhng nm cui cng ca s n p ca Stalin ng b y khi cc cng v cao nh mt Zionist (ngi theo ch ngha phc quc Do Thi). Bt lun ln hay xung, cc pht minh ca ng chng bao gi tr thnh mt i mi cch mng.

40

mi ngi quen vi kit tc tr tu ny, nhng vi mt kt qu kh khim tn. Mun hn n tr thnh mt thnh cng v cng to ln khi mt cng ty chi M ni ting, c tinh thn khi nghip tht s mua n v bt u tip th ton cu. Ngay c Hungary ch t ngi bit rng a mm - floppy disk, cng c lu tr d liu n gin c ph bng cht do cho cc my tnh c nhn c hng triu ngi s dng, li c sng ch bi mt k s Hungary, Marcell Jnosi. Sau khi sng ch ra n nm 1974, Jnosi cho mu u tin hot ng tt cho cng nghip v cc nh xut khu Hungary mt cch v vng; cc nh lnh o ngnh cng nghip x hi ch ngha khng thy c hi kinh doanh ln trong sng ch. H cm thy khng sn sng chu ri ro ca sn xut hng lot v phn phi ton cu; v thm ch khng h tr ko di s bo v patent ca n. Nh sng ch khng c php t lm cng vic tip th sn phm tr tu ca chnh mnh. Cui cng, mt hng Nht ti sng ch ra n, v ln u tin qu trnh i mi ca sn xut v phn phi hng lot c pht trin.20 Sau nhng cu chuyn bun ca cc nh sng ch b tht vng, chng ta chuyn sang pha i mi. Chc chn, ngay c trong h thng x hi ch ngha nhiu ngi c nng khiu kinh doanh khi nghip, nhng n nm ng yn. C l lnh o ca mt d n ln mc no c th bc l ti nng ca mnh, vi iu kin anh ta c chn vo v tr ca mnh v nng lc ca chnh anh ta ch khng v cc quan h ca anh ta trong ng. Th nhng, cc c trng c hu ca h thng khng cho php s pht trin ca tinh thn khi nghip kiu-Schumpeterian.21 Chng ta hy quay li, tng ci mt, vi cc iu kin c xem xt sm hn khi tho lun v ch ngha t bn, v nghin cu tnh hnh trong h thng x hi ch ngha. A. S tp trung ha, cc mnh lnh quan liu v cc giy php. K hoch i mi k thut l mt chng trong k hoch nh nc. Cc nh lp k hoch trung ng ra nhng thay i then cht phi c thc hin lin quan n cu thnh v cht lng, cng vi cng ngh sn xut, ca cc sn phm. Vic tip theo l phn r cc s liu k hoch trung ng vo cc k hoch ngnh, tiu ngnh, v cui cng ti cc cng ty. Nn kinh t mnh lnh gia nhng th khc c ngha rng cc hng nhn c cc lnh chi tit v khi no h phi thay mt sn phm bng mt sn phm mi, v my hay cng ngh c no phi c thay bng ci mi.
20

Nh sng ch Hungary vn cn sng. K t khi v hu ng sng vi mt khon lng hu rt khim tn. Xem cu chuyn v floppy trong Kovcs (1999) v Drvucz (2004).

21

V nhng nghin cu kinh nghim xem cc ti liu tham kho trong Ch thch 10. V mt gii thch l thuyt xem Berliner (1976), Gomulka (1983) v Kornai (1980 v 1993a).

41

Trc khi ph chun k hoch ln cui cng, cc nh qun l cng ty c php a ra nhng gi , nh vy gia cc th khc h c th khi xng vic thch nghi mt sn phm mi hay mt cng ngh mi, tc l, h c th tham gia vo qu trnh truyn b i mi. Tuy nhin, h phi xin php thc hin mi sng kin quan trng. Nu mt hnh ng tnh c c quy m ln, ngay c cp trn trc tip ca h khng th t mnh quyt nh, m phi chuyn ln cp cao hn ca h thng th bc xin chun y. Mt sng kin cng rng th phi i ln cng cao c quyt nh cui cng, v qu trnh quan liu i trc hnh ng thc t cng di. (V mt phn tch l thuyt mnh v mi quan h gia tp trung ha v i mi, xem Qian and Xu, 1998.) Ngc vi trn, nu trong ch ngha t bn mt i mi rt c ha hn b cng ty u tin t chi, th cng ty khc c th mun nm ly n do phi tp trung ha, phn tn ha, quyn s hu t nhn v th trng khin cho c th. Trong cc nn kinh t x hi ch ngha tp trung ha, tng i mi i theo cc ng chnh thng, v trong trng hp quyt nh ph nh c by t th khng th c khiu ni. B. Khng c hay ch c phn thng khng ng k. Tt nhin, trong thc tin ca nn kinh t x hi ch ngha cc phn thng cui cng khng phi l l. C nhng khc bit ng k gia tin lng c nhn v cc phn thng thng l hay c bit nhiu loi khc nhau. Nu nh chc trch cp cao cho rng i mi k thut trong mt n v nh my l thnh cng, nh qun l v c l cc ng nghip trc tip ca ng ta nhn c tin thng, mt khon nhiu nht bng mt hay hai thng lng. C. Khng c cnh tranh gia cc nh sn xut v nhng ngi bn.22 Sn xut c tp trung mnh m. Kh nhiu cng ty c c v tr c quyn, hay ch t mt s c quyn (khu vc) v sn xut ton b mt nhm sn phm. S thiu ht kinh nin v cc sn phm to ra ng x c quyn ngay c ni nhiu nh sn xut hot ng song song nhau. Nn kinh t thiu ht, mt trong nhng tnh cht c th h thng mnh nht ca ch ngha x hi, lm t lit ng c mnh m ca i mi, khuyn khch chin u nhm ly lng khch hng (Kornai 1970, 1980, Kornai 1993a, cc Chng 11-12.) Nh sn xut/ngi bn khng buc phi thu ht ngi mua bng cho cho h mt sn phm mi v tt hn, bi v ngi mua vui sng khi kim c bt c th g trong ca hng, ngay c hng li thi v km cht lng. C cc th d v cc hot ng sng ch c thc y bi nhng s thiu ht kinh nin: nhng th thay th c to ra mt cch ti tnh thay cho cc vt liu hay linh kin my b thiu (Laki, 1984-1985.) Nhng kt qu ny ca u c sng to ca cc nh sng ch, tuy
22

Nh nhc ti trc, cng nghip quc phng l mt ngoi l, bi v trong lnh vc ny ch Soviet trong cnh tranh khc lit vi phng Ty.

42

vy, khng tr thnh cc i mi ph bin, thnh cng v mt thng mi theo ngha Schumpeterian.23 D. Cc gii hn kht khe v th nghim. Ch ngha t bn cho php hng trm hay hng ngn n lc v b hay him khi thnh cng cho sau mt trong s hng trm hay hng ngn n lc s lm c v mang li thnh cng rt to ln. Trong nn kinh t k hoch ho x hi ch ngha cc nhn vt thng c khuynh hng trnh ri ro. Kt qu l, vic p dng cc i mi quan trng c tnh cch mng t nhiu b loi tr, bi v nhng vic lun c ngha l lao vo bng ti, l nhm mt lm liu, bi v thnh cng tt yu l khng th tin on c. Trong chng mc lin quan n nhng ngi i theo, mt s nn kinh t i theo nhanh, s khc theo chm. Cc nn kinh t x hi ch ngha thuc nhm theo chm nht. Chng th duy tr cc quy trnh sn xut c, quen bit, v to ra cc sn phm c c th k cc cng ngh mi v cc sn phm mi c qu nhiu cc c trng khng c bit chc chn khin cho vic lp k hoch cc ch th kh khn. E. Khng c vn nm ch c s dng, phn b u t cng nhc. K hoch ho tp trung khng x l mt cch keo kit cc ngun lc dnh cho to vn. Phn ca u t c lc ra t tng sn lng thng l cao hn so vi cc nc t bn ch ngha. Tuy nhin, s lng khng l ny b chim ot trc mt ri cho n tn ng xu cui cng. Ngoi ra, trong hu ht thi gian thc ra l c s phn b qu; ni cch khc, tng hp tt cc cc k hoch d n quy nh cung ng nhiu ngun lc hn mc cn thit thc hin k hoch. Chng bao gi xy ra l, c vn cha c phn b nm ch ai c tng hay. Cc nh phn b [vn] khng tm nh kinh doanh khi nghip ng i bc ln vi mt kin ngh i mi. Cc th trng vn linh hot cha c bit n. Thay vo , c cc quy ch quan liu cng nhc v cc hot ng d n. V dnh ngun vn cho cc hot ng vi nhng kt qu c th khng chc chn l khng th tng tng ni. Chng th tm thy b trng cng nghip ngu ngc no hay gim c nh my no ngi i tin cho cc cng vic mo him tha nhn ngay t trc rng s tin c th b mt v s i mi c th khng thnh cng.24

23

Khng ch c h thng x hi ch ngha chu thit ht kinh nin. Trong chin tranh thiu ht cng xut hin cc nn kinh t t bn ch ngha na. Trong Chin tranh Th gii II s thiu ht nguyn liu th kch thch mnh m cc hot ng i mi pht trin cc nguyn liu th Ersatz (thay th).

V phn tch mi quan h gia tnh linh hot ca cp ti chnh, tp trung ho v i mi, xem Huang and Xu, 1998.

24

43

Khi n xa ti y, ng lt qua cc im t A n E ln na, cc c ch i mi c m t trong cc im ny thc s l cc h qu ca cc c trng c bn ca cc h thng t bn ch ngha v x hi ch ngha. Cc hin tng c xem xt l nhng kt qu trc tip ca quyn s hu t nhn v iu phi th trng trong mt h thng, v ca cng hu v iu phi quan liu trong h thng kia. Ti khng khng nh rng nhp tin b k thut ca mt nc ch ph thuc vo vic n c cai qun bi h thng t bn ch ngha hay x hi ch ngha. Nhiu nhn t khc ng vai tr quan trng: trng thi pht trin kinh t ca nc , mc gio dc, k c o to cc nh nghin cu, mc v khung kh th ch ca vic cp ti chnh cho nghin cu hn lm v hot ng nghin cu trin khai (R&D) cng nghip, nghin cu c qun i ti tr v v.v. Vn may cng ng mt vai tr khng th ph nhn. L vn vn may v sao li Phn Lan, v khng phi an Mch hay Na Uy, ni mt cng ty nh Nokia xut hin v t thnh cng v song trong truyn b in thoi di ng. C vn liu khoa hc phong ph tho lun cc vn ca nhng ngi dn u v nhng ngi i theo trong qu trnh i mi (xem, th d, Davila, Epstein, and Shelton, 2006, Freeman 1982, Rogers 1995).25 Tha nhn tm quan trng ca tt c cc nhn t gii thch khc, ti gi vng khng nh: tc ng c th h thng l kh mnh.26

Cc nhn t chnh tr v tin b k thut Nhn t quyt nh gii thch bn cht ca qu trnh i mi l nh hng ca cc nt c trng c th h thng ca nn kinh t, m n, tt nhin rt cuc c xc nh bi cu trc chnh tr ca h thng. Tuy nhin, c nhiu lin kt trc tip gia cu trc chnh tr v tin b k thut. Ti s ni n vi lin kt mt cch ngn gn. Ch c ti cng sn nng n thc y nhng i mi trong lnh vc thng tintruyn thng khi n cung cp cng ngh hu hiu cho tuyn truyn chnh tr v ni chung cho truyn b h t tng chnh thng. Lenin l mt trong cc nh lnh o chnh tr hiu tm

25

Rogers (1995) c l l cng trnh c trch dn nhiu nht trong vn liu c vit cho cc nh kinh doanh v cc nh qun l quan tm n cc vn thc tin ca i mi. Cun sch mt khc tht tuyt vi v c vit rt cn trng ny li thm ch khng h nhc n tn Schumpeter, cng chng nhc n bt c l thuyt kinh t v i mi khc no.
26

Kinh nghim ca nc c b chia ct l c bit ng rt ra bi hc. ng c, bn cnh Czechoslovakia, l nc pht trin nht trong cc nc x hi ch ngha. N bt u vi mt h tng c s nghin cu tuyt vi v dnh cc ngun lc ho phng cho gio dc bc cao, cho nghin cu hn lm v cng nghip. Th nhng, n khng c kh nng tin ln vi ngay ch mt i mi cch mng t ph. Bt chp vic c cc chuyn gia hng u, c k nng cao sn s dng, tc i theo cc i mi tin phong [ca ng c] trong hu ht cc khu vc u chm hn ca Ty c (Bauer, 1999, Stokes, 2000).

44

quan trng ca in nh cho cc mc ch tuyn truyn. Lin X cng l mt trong cc nc a vic pht truyn hnh nhanh nht, v n l phng tin tp trung ha cao trong giai on u, tp trung vo mt hay vi studio, v chu s kim sot chnh tr ngt ngho ca ng. Cng th, chng trnh ca cc i pht thanh c th c kim sot d dng, v truyn qua cc loa thm ch n cc lng xm ho lnh. Pht thanh v truyn hnh c ch cng sn ng h chng no s kim sot tp trung gt gao cn kh thi. May thay, v cng ngh IC (mch tch hp) pht trin hn na, s tp trung ha hon ton v s kim duyt tr nn l khng th v mt k thut. c mt bc tng Berlin ngn ngi dn qua bin gii ca hai th gii, nhng khng th xy bc tng no ngn sng pht thanh v TV xuyn qua Bc mn St t Ty c sang ng c, t Munich sang ton b ng u, v ph sng l cng c ti ngn chn tc ng gy mt n nh ca cc i pht thanh v truyn hnh phng Ty. Gia chc chn rt nhiu nhn t dn n s sp ca h thng x hi ch ngha, th mt nhn t l: v mt k thut khng th cch ly hon ton Lin X v cc nc x hi ch ngha khc khi ting ni n t phn cn li ca th gii. S ri lon cui cng trong khi x hi ch ngha xy ra trong giai on khi cc myxerox (photocopy), e-mail v the internet tr thnh c th kim c ngay c vng ny. Gorbachev ku gi Glaznost, cng khai v qua cc cnh ca m ca internet, e-mail, sng pht thanh v TV thng tin chy t nc ngoi vo, v mun hn c t cc cng dn trong nc tnh ng, c u c ci m vi s lng ngy cng ln hn. N c tc ng tn ph i vi cc gio iu c, cc nim tin ng cng, i vi tuyn truyn nh lc hng ca ng, gii phng u c ca ngy cng nhiu ngi (Shane 1994, Kedzie 1997a v 1997b, Stolyarov 2008). Hy ti quay li quan h gia cu trc chnh tr v tin b k thut mt im mun hn.

Tm tt u tin: Cc h thng v tin b k thut Hy gi s trong mt lt rng tm nhn ca Marx, Lenin v Trotsky gi nh c thc hin, cch mng th gii thng li trn khp hnh tinh, m khng cn li vt nh no ca ch ngha t bn. Trong trng hp nh vy chng ta s chng bao gi c my tnh, c i bn dn transistor, t lnh v siu th, internet v thang cun, CD v DVD, my nh s, in thoi di ng v tt c nhng thay i k thut mang tnh cch mng khc. Cch sng ca chng ta, ch t v s dng cc dng c v thit b khc nhau, s t nhiu nh tr trnh c tip qun t cc vt nh cui cng ca ch ngha t bn trc tht bi cui cng ca n. 45

 y chng ta i n cc vn cn bn ca s hiu bit v s gii thch cc xu th lu di ca lch s loi ngi. Cc cng ngh (cc phng tin, dng c, thit b v.v) c dng trong mi hot ng (khng ch trong sn xut hng ha, m trong tt c cc hot ng c nhn v x hi khc) c pht trin trong mt qu trnh x hi phc tp. Qu trnh phc tp l ci chng ta gi ngn gn l tin b k thut. Tc v cc tnh cht khc ca tin b k thut c xc nh bi nhiu nhn t. Trit l chung nm di bi bo ny (v cc bi vit khc ca ti) l nh sau: mt trong nhng nhn t gii thch mnh m nht l h thng. Mt mi quan h nhn qu mnh hot ng gia loi h thng (ch ngha t bn hay ch ngha x hi) nh mt trong cc nguyn nhn, v tc v cc tnh cht khc ca tin b k thut nh kt qu. Ti dng khi nim tin b k thut c chp nhn ni chung bi ton b gii kinh t. Chng ta phi nhn thy t th nht, tin b c mt hm m tn thng hay thm ch ca ngi, v n phn nh mt phn xt-gi tr: l tt hn sng trong mt th gii c my ra chn bt t ng, c in thoi di ng v CD hn l trong mt th gii khng c cc sn phm . Nhng c thc l tt hn khng? Chng ai, ngay c cc fan cung nhit nht ca cng ngh hin i c th tr li vi mt t c n gin, m khng c nhng d dt v nhng hn ch. V sng ch ca la v dao, tt c cc cng c v cng ngh mi c dng cho c cc mc ch tt v xu. Mt s thc tm thng, nhng vn v cng quan trng, ca cuc sng l, ln song to ln mi y ca tin b k thut, c th l s pht trin nh v bo trong lnh vc my tnh, in t, cc phng tin k thut s, cc cng ngh thng tin truyn thng hin i c th phc v cho bn ti phm, ti phm tnh dc, bn khng b, v cho cc phong tro chnh tr cc oan, cng m ra cng ngh mi cho qung co lu c la di hay t nht lm ngi dn bc mnh. Vic thay th lao ng ca con ngi bng cc robot c th dn n lm mt tnh ngi ca cc hot ng v giao tip khc nhau. Ngi trc mn hnh my tnh hay TV sut ngy v m c th khin tr em v ngi ln sao lng vic hc tp v gii tr xng ng hn. Tin b k thut c v s c dng khng ch cho cc hot ng ha bnh, m c cho cc hot ng qun s, v khng ch bo v t quc m c cho xm lc na. Th nhng, a s ngi dn, k c ti, gi chiu hng ca nhng thay i k thut l tin b bi v n mang li cc li ch nhiu hn, nhiu hn rt nhiu, so vi nhng tr ngi hay s him nguy. (Tm thy cc kt qu kho st chng t y l kin ca a s di.) Da vo phn xt gi tr ny ti coi tc ng khuyn khch ny ca ch ngha t bn ln tin b k thut nh mt trong nhng c hnh ln nht ca h thng , v coi tc ng ca ch ngha x hi ln tin b k thut nh mt trong nhng tt xu ln nht ca h thng y. 46

Ring iu quan st ny c th l mt l do tt lm l k nim s sp ca h thng x hi ch ngha.

1.2 S bin i v tng tc ca tin b k thut

Bc vo th gii ch ngha t bn, tt c cc nc hu x hi ch ngha m ca cho tinh thn kinh doanh khi nghip (entrepreneurship), cho cc i mi m ng, cho s truyn b nhanh cc sn phm mi v cng ngh mi. S thay i ca cc c trng cn bn ca nn kinh t to ra cc iu kin cho s tng tc ca tin b k thut trong phn ny ca th gii. Khi din t cc cu trn, ti c th l cn trng. Ch ngha t bn c mt xu hng gn lin cho tinh thn tinh thn kinh doanh khi nghip, cho i mi v tnh nng ng. Tuy nhin, y ch l mt xu hng, mt thin hng, mt khuynh hng v khng nhiu hn th. N khng ging mt quy lut vt l phi xy ra. on trc tho lun i mi di ch ngha t bn nhn mnh rng bn cnh tc ng quyt nh ca cc nhn t c th h thng, cc s vic khc cng c nh hng quan trng. S a dng ca cc nhn t khc, khng mang tnh c th h thng ny gii thch nhng khc bit v tc ca qu trnh i mi gia cc nn kinh t chuyn i khc nhau. V tinh thn khi nghip, s i mi v tnh nng ng tr nn si ni thng qua hnh ng con ngi, chnh mi trng x hi, chnh tr v php l do con ngi to ra, l ci nh hng n xu hng ny t ph xa n u v nhanh th no. N ph thuc vo bu khng kh kinh doanh. V n ph thuc mc ln vo s can m, cm hng v nng lc ca cc c nhn c th tr thnh cc nh kinh doanh khi nghip.

Cc nh i mi khi nghip mi Chng ta hy bt u vi nhng i mi a ra cc sn phm mi mang tnh cch mng. Th d u tin l Skype, c lit k gia cc i mi v i mang tnh cch mng trong Bng 1.1. Hai nh i mi ca n l nhng ngi Scandinav, Niklas Zennstrm l ngi Thy in v Janus Friis l ngi an Mch, nhng cng ty khai trng s phn phi ton cu c thnh lp v ng k Estonia. V th, theo cc tiu chun c p dng trong bi bo ny, n l mt i mi Estonia. N thnh cng n mc cng ty e-Bay M tr gn hai t euro cho cng ty tin phong khi n tip qun v tip tc qu trnh i mi. Th d th hai, t ngon mc hn, nhng vn l th d xut sc, l cu chuyn ca cng ty cng ngh cao Hungary, Graphisoft. Nh sng ch-i mi, Gbor Bojr, mt cu nghin 47

cu vin cao cp ca mt vin nghin cu hn lm, to ra mt chng trnh thit k ba chiu nhm ti vic s dng ch yu cho cc kin trc s (Bojr, 2007). Trong khi khng l duy nht trong lnh vc, nhng so vi cc sn phm khc phn mm ca ng tao nh, hiu qu v v th thnh cng v mt thng mi nhiu nc. Cng ty ca Bojr tip th sn phm trn ton cu. y l th d kinh in v mt s nghip kinh doanh khi nghip Schumpeterian. C s khc bit n th no gia cu chuyn ca hai ngi Hungary: nh sng ch floppy disk Jnosi khng thnh cng trong thi i trc 1989, vn ngho v hu nh khng c bit n, v ngi to ra Graphisoft, Bojr t c danh ting, uy tn v mt gia ti ln! Th d th ba l cu chuyn v khi phc d liu t cc a cng b hng cng bt u Hungary thi Kdr, c c trng bi nhng ci cch th trng na vi. Thi y y c mt s kha kh my tnh, nhng kh t trong mi trng Hungary. Nu my tnh hng, phn gi tr nht, a cng, khng c vt i. B cng khi phc n v lm cho n sn sng dng trong my tnh khc, c rp li t cc b phn qua s dng. Hai anh em, Jnos v Sndor Krti thu c cc k nng c bit v khi phc a cng. Ri tng sng to n: cng k nng c th c dng nu d liu cha trong a cng b mt. Mi ngi u bit cm gic au n v mt mt lng ln thng tin trong my tnh ca mnh. Anh em Krti hc k thut, hay chnh xc hn ngh thut, gi hn cc s liu c tin l mt vnh vin t a b h hng. V sau 1989 tri thc rt c bit ny tr thnh mt dch v c th bn c, anh em nh Krti thnh lp mt cng ty, v o to nhiu chuyn gia trong ngh thut ca h. By gi h c cc khch hng khp th gii (Krti and Fabinyi, 2008, Laki, 2009), bin cu chuyn ca h thnh mt cu chuyn na v cc nh i mi Schumpeterian rt thnh cng. Mc d hai trong ba th d l t Hungary, do cc mi quan h c nhn ca ti vi nhng ngi quen bit cc trng hp , nhng ti tin rng c cc cu chuyn tng t nhiu nc hu x hi ch ngha khc. Ti bit rng cc cu chuyn thnh cng vn l lc c, v s cn thi gian thy nhiu hn nhiu cc i mi ln trong khu vc hu x hi ch ngha.

S tng tc ca vic i theo (follow-up) v truyn b Khi cc nn kinh t hu x hi ch ngha tin bc trong m rng khu vc t nhn v to dng cc nh ch ca s iu phi th trng, tin b k thut tng tc theo nhiu cch, k c vic i theo nhanh hn cc i mi c a ra ni khc. Tip cn n ng in thoi c coi l chuyn hin nhin i vi mi ngi phng Ty trong cc thp nin va qua. Nhng chng th cht no i vi cng dn ca cc 48

nc x hi ch ngha, ni n l mt dch v rt thiu, dnh ring cho nhng ngi c c quyn v i vi nhng ngi khc ch sau mt thi gian ch i nhiu nm! khng c ng thu bao, bi v cc nh lp k hoch phn cho n u tin thp, v phn b ngun lc cho cc khu vc khc. Chng no ch ngha x hi cn thnh hnh c v l v vng thay i quan h cung v cu trong dch v in thoi. Ri s thay i h thng xy ra v cng vi n tnh hnh ca khu vc in thoi o ngc hon ton. Bng 1.5 cho thy rng trong mt thi gian tng i ngn dch v in thoi c nh kiu c tr nn c th tip cn c cho tt c mi ngi. Ngoi ra, mt sn phm cch mng mi, in thoi di ng xut hin v chim lnh th trng in thoi27 (Xem cc Bng 1.6, 1.7 v 1.8). S thm nhp ca cc dch v ny xy ra vi tc v bo (Cooper 2009). Khi vic dng in thoi tr nn khng b rng buc bn cung, by gi ch cn rng buc cu l c hiu lc.
Bng 1.5: ng in thoi: S liu so snh (S ng trn 1000 dn)

Nm 1979 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Bulgaria 91 102 167 242 305 353 323

Hungary 53 58 70 96 210 373 332

Ba Lan 53 55 67 86 148 283 307

Rumania 67 73 88 102 131 174 203

Lin X 67 70 103 140 169 218 280

c 308 332 416 441 514 610 661

Hy Lp 226 235 314 384 494 536 567

Italy 216 231 305 387 434 474 431

Ngun. United Nations Statistics Division, (2009).

Mi quan h nhn qu r rng gia ch ngha t bn v cung di do ca dch v in thoi hin din nhiu mc. S chuyn i sang s hu t nhn da trn nn kinh t th trng c t do ho chm dt nn kinh t thiu ht. Dch v in thoi c cung cp bi v cc doanh nhn khi nghip ni a v nc ngoi c li nhun t vic kinh doanh ny. Bi v in thoi di ng c th thay th cho in thoi c dy (c nh), nn in thoi c nh khng th vn c quyn. Ngc li, chng ta chng kin mt s ganh ua mnh lit gia cc cng ty in thoi. Ba mi nm trc Lin X hay ng u mt ngi mun tr thnh khch hng phi cu xin b my quan liu c c n hu ln kim c in thoi. Ngy nay cc cng ty in thoi mi cho ly lng khch hng.

27

Trong mt s nc, th d Hungary, n khng ch lm ngng s tng thm ca dch v in thoi c nh, m thc s bt u thay th n nhiu gia nh.

49

Bng 1.6: Thm nhp ca cng ngh truyn thng hin i trong cc nc EU 15 nc thnh vin c ca EU (EU15) i li 10 nc thnh vin mi hu x hi ch ngha (EU10) Nhm 1995 2001 2007 EU15 19,706 23,747 26,781 EU10 3,469 4,425 6,295 GDP u ngi, PPP, USD nm 2005 EU15 25,831 31,134 35,058 EU10 9,758 12,286 17,570 My tnh c nhn trn 100 dn 35 37 EU15 16 EU10 3 12 33 Ngi dung Internet trn 100 dn 32 64 EU15 3 EU10 1 14 48 Thu bao bng rng trn 100 dn 2 24 EU15 NA EU10 NA 0 12 Thu bao trn 100 dn EU15 7 77 116 in thoi di ng EU10 1 40 118 Ghi ch. Cc s l s trung bnh n thun cho mi nhm nc. V st s liu (NA), xem ngun bit chi tit. Ngun. World Bank (2008) Bng 1.7: Thm nhp ca cng ngh truyn thng hin i trong cc nc EU Nm nc Visegrd (V5) versus 3 nc Nam u (S3) Ch s GDP GDP My tnh C nhn Ngi dng Internet Thu bao Bng rng Thu bao in thoi di ng trn 100 dn trn 100 dn trn 100 dn n v o u ngi, USD nm 2000 u ngi, PPP, USD nm 2005 trn 100 dn Nhm S3 V5 S3 V5 S3 V5 S3 V5 S3 V5 S3 V5 1995 10,406 3,865 18,620 11,550 5 4 1 1 NA NA 3 1 1997 11,020 4,194 19,721 12,535 7 6 3 2 NA NA 12 4 1999 11,847 4,435 21,200 13,228 9 9 10 6 0 0 40 14 2001 12,642 4,756 22,618 14,176 14 12 16 13 1 0 74 46 2003 13,054 5,108 23,345 15,237 15 18 26 29 3 1 88 72 2005 13,623 5,635 24,357 16,821 17 23 33 39 8 5 100 92 2007 14,289 6,338 25,545 18,956 28 39 41 50 14 11 115 113 Ch s GDP n v o u ngi, USD nm 2000

Ghi ch. S liu trung bnh n gin cho mi nhm nc. V5 = cc nc Visegrd: Cng ho Czech, Hungary, Ba Lan, , Slovakia, Slovenia; S3 = Cc nc Nam u: Hy Lp, B o Nha, Ty Ban Nha. Ngun. World Bank (2008)

Ti, chc chn, nh k nhng phin h ring ca mnh do thiu mt ng in thoi nh ti, v ti bit n s chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha v ch ngha t bn rng by gi ti c in thoi nh, v tt c cc thnh vin trong gia nh ti u c in thoi ring ca mnh. Ti bit n v nhng c hi c ci thin ca tin b k thut nh thay i h thng. Ti bit rng bit n l t thiu trong t vng ca kinh t hc hay khoa hc chnh tr. Th

50

nhng ti mun dng chnh xc t , bi v n phn nh r rng khng ch s hiu bit duy l ca ti v quan h nhn qu tch cc gia ch ngha t bn v i mi ni chung, v gia s dch chuyn sang ch ngha t bn v s sn c ca dch v in thoi ni ring, m cng phn nh xc cm mnh m i vi nhng thay i sau 1989. Bt chp tt c nhng khim khuyt v cc trn thua, ti chc mng ngy k nim mt cch chn thnh v l mt trong nhng l do quan trng k nim s n ca ch ngha t bn rng tt c cc sn phm ca tin b k thut cui cng cng sn c cho c chng ti, cc cng dn ca khu vc hu x hi ch ngha na.
Bng 1.8: Thm nhp ca cng ngh truyn thng hin i Nga v mt s nc khc Ch s
GDP

n v o u ngi

Nc
Nga Brazil Mexico Nga Brazil Mexico Nga Brazil Mexico Nga Brazil Mexico Nga Brazil Mexico Nga Brazil Mexico

1995
1,618 3,611 4,892 7,853 7,727 9,949

2001
1,870 3,696 5,864 9,076 7,910 11,927

2007
2,858 4,222 6,543 13,873 9,034 13,307

GDP

u ngi, PPP

My tnh c nhn

trn 100 dn

2 2 3 0 0 0 NA NA NA 0

8 6 7 3 5 7 0 0 0 5

NA NA NA 21 35 23 3 4 4 115 63 63

Ni dng Internet

trn 100 dn

Thu bao bng rng

trn 100 dn

Thu bao in thoi di ng

trn 100 dn

1 16 1 22 Ghi ch. S liu trung bnh n gin cho mi nc. V s liu st (NA), xem ngun bit chi tit. Ngun. World Bank (2008)

Cc bng 1.6, 1.7 v 1.8 cho thy nhng kt qu tng t cho mt s qu trnh truyn b khc, khng km quan trng: vic s dng my tnh, tip cn n internet v vn vn. Tc i theo cc nc tin phong gia tng mt cch kh ngon mc. Rt ng cc nh kinh doanh khi nghip noi gng mt nh tin phong, thch nghi tng cho hp vi hon cnh thc t a phng v t thnh cng to ln. Mt trong nhng nh i mi Schumpeterian ln ny l doanh nhn Trung Quc Ma Yun, ngi sng lp ca Tp on Alibaba. Hot ng chnh ca cc cng ty thuc tp on ca ng l thng mi doanh nghip-doanh nghip (B-to-B) trn internet, c bit l thng mi gia cc cng ty nh. Tp on Alibaba by gi l cng ty ln nht trong khu vc Trung Quc, v l mt

51

trong cc cng ty ln nht th gii. Nh sng lp v nh lnh o, Ma Yun bt u nh mt gio vin trung hc, v tr thnh mt t ph. (Xem thng tin cng ty ti http://www.alibaba.com). Cu chuyn ca Alibaba l mt cu chuyn thnh cng ngon mc, nhng m ra hng trm cu chuyn i mi y n tng khc trong th gii hu x hi ch ngha. Tm li, khong cch gia cc nc pht trin nht v cc nc hu x hi ch ngha khng bin i, nhng by gi l hp hn, ngc vi thi x hi ch ngha khi khong cch tng ln mt cch in hnh theo thi gian.28

S ph hy sng to Qu trnh i mi v ng hc ca s gia nhp (entry) v rt khi (exit) ca cc hng lin kt cht ch vi nhau. Schumpeter t ra ci tn s tn ph sng to cho ci sau (exit), m t sc tch v chnh xc hai mt khng th tch ri ca tin b k thut nhanh. L d nh gi cao nhng ngi vui v mi n th gii kinh doanh, c bit nu h xut hin di dng ca cc nh i mi thnh cng. Nhng khng c tin b nhanh no m khng c cc s kin bun ca cc v ph sn, tht bi kinh doanh, ri khi v cc hin tng cay ng i km l sa thi v tht nghip. Cc nn kinh t chuyn i gp vn ri tri nghim hai ln sng ln ca s tn ph sng to. Trong mt bi bo sm hn (Kornai 1993b) ti gi ln sng u l suy thoi bin i (transformational recession). N gy ra au n trong tt c cc nc hu x hi ch ngha, dn n s khng l cc hng rt khi [kinh doanh] v to ra c sc u tin v tht nghip hng lot sau hng thp k thu qu nhiu ngi lm v m bo vic lm. Cuc suy thoi hin thi vn cha qua, nhng nhn vo tng lai gn vi mc lc quan no n c l s dn n s st gim sn xut nh hn s st gim th nht xy ra di suy thi bin i. c l l mt trong nhng suy thoi su nht trong lch s kinh t, nhng th gii t ch n n so vi khng hong hin thi bi v ch c chng ti, cc cng dn ca khu vc cng sn trc kia, l nn nhn ca suy thoi bin i,* v phn cn li ca th gii khng [phi] chia s kinh nghip au n .

Theo Ch s X hi Thng tin (Information Society Index), phn nh s pht trin ca cc kha cnh khc nhau ca X hi Thng tin mt cch tng hp, nhiu nc hu x hi ch ngha, th d Cng ha Czech, Hungary, v Slovenia, t cc v tr kha kh trong xp hng (Karvalics, 2009). Ton b nhm cc nc c quan st ang tin ln pha trc, v t cc gi tr cao hn mi nm, mc d cn cc n lc ln ch gi th bc t c hm nay.
*

28

Trung Quc v Vit Nam khng tri qua suy thoi bin i (sau 1989) hay thc s b khng hong nghim trng trc ri (Ch thch ca ngi dch).

52

Suy thoi bin i mang mt ci nhn ghi gi v cng cao ca s au kh nhng n cng to ra nhng li ch. N p nhng iu chnh nhanh i vi mt s chuyn dch trit trong c cu ca th trng ni v ngoi, v cng dn sch ng cho nhiu s nng ng hn, nhiu i mi hn v nng sut cao hn. Nhiu dy chuyn sn xut li thi, cc nh my y khi v hoen r, v cc ca hng c cung cp ti bin mt v cc n v sn xut mi tinh ta lc trong cc ta nh hin i c trang b vi cng ngh mi nht, v cc siu th v cc trung tm mua sm mi xut hin. C sn d liu c t chc tt v gia nhp [entry] v rt khi [exit] trong vng hu x hi ch ngha. Bi bo ca Bartelsman, Haltiwanger v Scarpetta (2004) cho mt bo co v phn tch cn trng, da trn s liu mc doanh nghip, v qu trnh ph hy sng to ca 24 nc, gm nhiu nc chuyn i, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Rumania v Slovenia. Chng ti gii thiu y ch mt biu v mc ch minh ha (xem Hnh 1.2), gm cc hng c t nht 20 nhn vin trong cc nm 1990.
Hnh 1.2: T l gia nhp v rt khi ca cc hng trong cc nm 1990 (phn trm)

Ghi ch. Cc ct mu xanh l t l gia nhp (entry rate), c nh ngha nh s cc hng mi chia cho tng s cc doanh nghip hin hnh v hng gia nhp trong mt nm cho trc. Cc ct tm l t l rt khi (exit rate), c nh ngha nh s cc hng rt khi th trng trong mt nm cho trc chia cho tng s ban u, tc l s hin hnh ca nm trc . Ngun. Bartelsman, Haltiwanger and Scarpett 2004, p.16, Panel C.

Trong cc nm u ca chuyn i s gia nhp ln hn rt nhiu s rt khi iu l khc vi cc nn kinh t chn mui hn, ni s chnh lch ca hai dng (gia nhp - rt khi)

53

ny thng nh hn, hay m. Nhiu hng ln (trc kia thuc s hu nh nc) bin khi kinh doanh, v cc doanh nghip nh gia nhp vi s lng ln. Tng lun chuyn doanh nghip (firm turnover = exit + entry rate) l gia 3 v 8 phn trm trong hu ht cc nc cng nghip, v hn 10 phn trm trong mt s nn kinh t chuyn i trong cc nm 1990. S hn lon do s lun chuyn nhanh gy ra v thi gian sng ngn ca cc hng mi c lp du xung mun hn. Vo cui cc nm 1990 cc s liu nhn khu hc c trng ca dn c hng tr nn kh gn vi cc s liu quan st c trong cc nc khc. Hnh 1.3 cho thy xu hng ti mt t l cn bng hn gia gia nhp v rt khi. ng tin ti v tr khng, ni t l gia nhp v rt khi c tnh vi quyn s nhn vin kh ln nhau.
Hnh 1.3: Din bin ca dng chy th v thun ca cc doanh nghip trong cc nn kinh t chuyn i

Note. Tnh ton bao gm ton b khu vc doanh nghip. ng en l tng lun chuyn (entry rate + exit rate), ng l dng chy thun (entry rate- exit rate.) Ngun. Bartelsman, Haltiwanger and Scarpetta 2004, p. 17, Figure 2, Panel B.

mt nhiu nm vt qua giai on ti t nht ca pha tn ph ca qu trnh Schumpeterian. Cc nn kinh t hu x hi ch ngha bt u tng trng vi hiu qu tng ln, to ra cc sn phm u ra hin i hn nhiu khi t ngt mt c sc mi t bn ngoi, tc ng ca suy thoi ton cu, ging xung nn kinh t. Nhn dn ca khu vc chng ti ang tri qua suy thoi au n th hai. Hon ton c th hiu c rng ngy nay t ch ngha t bn khng vang ln mt cch d chu trong tai cng dn cc nc hu x hi ch ngha.

54

Cn qu sm hi cu hi liu suy thoi hin thi bn cnh vic gy ra ri lon v au kh c tc ng lm sch theo ngha Schumpeterian hay khng. S tn ph c dn sch ng cho vic xy dng nhiu hn vng hu x hi ch ngha? Mi nm hay nhiu hn k t nay s cung cp bng chng tr li cu hi . S cn mt bi bo di ring bit tho lun cc gi chnh sch ca s m t thc chng c nu trn. Ci ti c th lm y ch l a ra vi li m ch ti cc quyn chn chnh sch v cc th lng nan gn vi s la chn gia cc quyn chn. 1. Chp nhn tng Schumpeterian c bn v s tn ph sng to khng bao hm mt s chp thun t ng mi biu l c th ca s tn ph. Nu cc lc lng th trng m qung dn n s rt khi ca mt hng, th mt s t chc (chnh quyn trung ng hay a phng, khu vc ti chnh hay cc thc th khc no ) c th xem xt vic cu vt (bailout). Ti y chng ta gia mt lnh vc mng mnh ca cc vn l thuyt v thc tin c tho lun trong cc ti liu v rng buc ngn sch mm (soft budget constraint) v ri ro o c (moral hazard). Ti tho lun vn ny trong vi bi bo (Kornai, Maskin and Roland 2003, Kornai 2009). Ti im ny ti mun a thm ch mt nhn xt: qu trnh Schumpeterian v i mi i cng vi s tng trng nhanh ngon mc ca chnh xc cc ngnh v tiu ngnh m c ha hn nht v mt nht. (Hy nh s gia nhp hng lot v s tng trng v bo ca cc hng dot-com.) Qu trnh ny c hai mt khng th trnh khi: cn nhiu n cho ch vi thnh cng ln v ng thi, chng ta li thy chng l qu nhiu. Nhng ri chn lc t nhin tip n v chng ta khng c chin u v s sng st ca mi loi c nh sn tuyt chng. Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c th tp hp cc l l mnh ng h cc v cu vt nht nh, th d, bo v nn kinh t nh mt tng th khi nhng thit hi kinh t-v m nghim trng c nh hng su rng do s qu ng hng rt lui gy ra. Tuy nhin, cc phn l l cng phi c cn nhc k lng. 2. Cuc tranh lun v cc nguyn nhn ca suy thoi hin thi cn ang tip din. Mt dng t duy ni ting nhc n chnh sch cho vay d di ca khu vc ti chnh v ku gi a ra cc quy tc cho vay nghim khc hn nhiu, bo th hn trong tng lai. Ti khng t chi dng t duy ny, nhng ti phi a thm mt cnh bo. Qu trnh Schumpeterian v i mi i hi s tip cn d dng n vn cho cc n mo him c th tht bi hay c th dn n cc thnh tu tuyt vi ca tin b k thut. (Xem cc iu kin D v E trong tng quan trn v cc iu kin cn thit cho qu trnh Schumpeterian v i mi pht trin.) Tm trng chung i s thn trng v s ght-ri ro mnh hn so vi trc suy thoi. Ti ng , cn thn trng hn so vi trc nhng s l sai lm cht ngi i p dng mt thi

55

 rt bo th mt cch m qung. Cc tiu chun cho vay nn c phn bit cn thn sao cho ng cc c hi ti tr cho cc d n i mi mo him nhng ha hn. 3. Chng ta nghe nhng li ku gi ln ting iu tit v cnh bo chng li quyn lc v ca cc lc lng th trng. Nhng li ku gi ny l c l, n mt gii hn nht nh. Vt qu im , chng ta c th sa vo iu tit qu ng, vo nhng cn tr quan liu v khi ng kinh doanh m cc bin php c th lm ct hng sc mnh ca tinh thn kinh doanh khi nghip. Hn na, nhiu nc hu x hi ch ngha vn cn kh vt chng ngi bt u mt cng vic kinh doanh. (Xem bo co ca World Bank v IFC (2009) v Mi trng kinh doanh-Doing business.) Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch phi trnh c hai loi sai lm; i qu xa trong gii quy ch (t do ha), hay a ra qu nhiu quy ch (v/hoc quy ch c mc tiu sai). 4. Tm trng cng chng bc bi v thu nhp cao ngt tri ca nhiu nh doanh nghip v cc nh qun l cao nht. Chng ta nghe nhng li ku gi i c cc bin php thc tin chng hin tng ny. Mc d s gin d l c th bin h c v mt o c v c th hiu c v mt tm l, tuy nhin cn mt s chia r [caveat] (khng c qun chng a thch). Mt trong nhng iu kin ca qu trnh Schumpeterian (iu kin B trong lit k trn) l phn thng khng l trong trng hp thnh cng. Khng phi n gin l phn thng ln, m l mt phn thng khng l! iu c v nhng ngi c th s l cc nh i mi chp nhn ri ro ln v tht bi. Chng ta hy nh rng trong ng cnh ny khng ch cc nh tin phong u tin a ra cc i mi t ph ln mi xng ng ci tn cc nh i mi, m c cc nh kinh doanh khi nghip nhanh chng i theo cc nh tin phong (trong hay ngoi nc) na. Mt khc, kh n th no hnh dung cng vic ca mt ban gim kho lng thin v thnh tho c kh nng vch ra ng ranh gii ga mt phn thng cao xng ng v mt phn thng cao khng xng ng! Ti khng chun b kin ngh mt th tc kh thi, m ch mun lu n hai kha cnh (mu thun vi nhau) ca thu nhp rt cao ca gii kinh doanh.

1.3 Phn nh thc t lch s trong u c ngi dn

Hin tng c bn: Thiu hiu bit Trong cc phn trc ca bi bo ti m t thc t lch s ca s tng tc gia S bin i V i, tc l s thay i h thng, v tin b k thut. Cho php cc li trong m t, ti tin chc v tnh chnh xc ca n, c xc minh bng chng c .

56

Chng ta phi tch bit s m t thc t lch s v s phn nh thc t trong u c ngi dn. Qu trnh phn nh hot ng khc nhau trong nhng ngi khc nhau. Thc t c m t trong cc on trc c cm nhn, hiu v nh gi khc nhau bi mi c nhn, ph thuc vo v tr x hi, s gio dc, lch s c nhn v c tnh ca tng ngi. Cu hi u tin chng ta phi nu ln l v nh gi tin b k thut. Ngi dn c coi s xut hin ca cc sng ch v i mi, cc sn phm mi v cng ngh mi trong qu kh v tng lai l s tin ln, hay h s qu trnh y v coi n l tai hi hay nguy him? Cu hi c hi trong mt s kho st quc t; cc Bng 1.9 v 1.10 cho chng ta nhng thu hiu l th. Xt cc li ch v tai hi do tin b k thut gy ra, hai phn ba ngi tr li Ba Lan v Hungary thy tc ng tch cc mnh hn tiu cc. Trong kha cnh t l cng dn ca hai nc hu x hi ch ngha ny ng h tin b k thut cao hn so vi o, Phn Lan, Italy v Ty Ban Nha, v Cng ha Czech hu x hi ch ngha. T l nhng ngi tr li chp thun tin b k thut l cao hn nhiu khi cu hi l v tc ng tng lai (xem ct th su ca Bng 1.9 v ct th hai ca Bng 1.10).
Bng 1.9: nh gi tin b k thut Tin b khoa hc v k thut s gip cha cc bnh nh AIDS, ung th, v.v. Nh khoa hc v cng ngh, s c cc c hi ln hn cho cc th h tng lai Khoa hc v cng ngh lm cho cuc sng ca chng ta khe hn, d hn v tin nghi hn Khoa hc v cng ngh s gip xa i gim ngho trn khp th gii Nhng li ch ca khoa hc l ln hn cc tc hi n c th c

AT 82 71 71 33 48 FIN 89 77 77 21 50 IT 82 73 76 50 57 SP 79 66 73 37 57 PL 89 93 83 45 65 HU 94 81 79 34 63 CZ 85 74 70 35 44 Ghi ch. Cu hi sau y c hi: Bn c ng vi cc tuyn b sau y? Bng cho thy t l phn trm cc cu tr li tch cc trn tng s ngi tr li. Ngun. Eurobarometer (2005.).

Cu hi th hai khng hng ti nh gi m ti nhn qu. Ti chp nhn ri ro v bt u vi mt phng on chung liu lnh. a s ln cng dn khu vc hu x hi ch ngha khng hiu quan h nhn qu c bn gia ch ngha t bn v tin b k thut. Mc d cc i mi ca 50-100 nm va qua, v c bit s thay i cch mng ca cng ngh thng tin v truyn thng, lm thay i mt cch y kch tnh cuc sng ca mi ngi, v hu ht ngi dn hng th nhng thun li ca thay i nhanh v k thut, h khng quy s thay

57

i v i ny cho ch ngha t bn.29 Ngc li. Mt phn ln dn c c nhng cm gic chng-t bn ch ngha c mc hay thm ch kch lit trong khi tn dng cc thun li ca in thoi di ng, internet, m vch trong siu th, cc cht do v si tng hp, cc gia dng hin i, cc my copy Xerox v vn vn v vn vn, m khng tha nhn rng tt c chng, khng tr th no, u l cc tc phm ca h thng t bn ch ngha b khinh mit hay b cm ght.
Bng 1.10: Nhng k vng lin quan n tc ng ca cc cng ngh mi (Phn trm) Th h tip s hng cht lng cuc sng tt hn 47 72 75 82 82 91 83 My tnh v cng ngh thng tin 85 87 89 92 87 92 86

Nc EU15 EU10 c Anh Hungary Ba Lan Rumania

Nng lng mt tri 90 84 95 91 87 89 78

Cng ngh sinh hc v k thut gen 63 64 65 65 74 63 65

Internet 77 81 75 81 78 86 82

in thoi di ng 67 70 57 61 67 80 75

Cc ngun nng lng mi cho t 90 86 92 90 81 88 84

Vn ti hng khng 79 79 72 80 75 88 85

Ghi ch. Cu hi sau c hi: Bn c ngh cc cng ngh sau s c cc tc ng tch cc, tiu cc hay trung tnh? Ch t l cc cu tr li tch cc c gii thiu. Source. Eurobarometer (2005.)

l phng on v ng tic, ti khng th dn ra mt nghin cu, iu tra d lun hay kho st gi tr duy nht no ng h, sa cha hay bc b phng on . Vi s gip ca cc tr l ca mnh chng ti th kim tra cc kho st c uy tn nht mt cch cn thn.30 Gia hng trm cu hi t nhiu tha ng hi nhng ngi c phng vn, chng ai tng hi trong bt c hnh thc no cu hi c trnh by y: Bn ngh g v cm thy th no v tng tc gia mt mt l h thng tng th (ch ngha t bn, ch ngha x hi, chuyn i t ch ngha x hi sang ch ngha t bn), v mt khc l tin b k thut? Hy ti duy tr phng on cho n khi chng ta c c cc d liu iu tra u tin cung cp mt s thu hiu ng tin cy trong u c ngi dn lin quan n cc cu hi ny v nhng kt qu i hi sa i phng on. S thiu cc iu tra, theo cch l no y, c

29

Trong mt on trc, ni v s thiu ht in thoi di ch ngha x hi v cung phong ph sau 1989, ti a ra mt nhn xt ch quan: ti bit n ch ngha t bn v s thay i ny ca cuc sng ca ti. C l ti khng phi l ngi duy nht c cm gic ny, nhng ti e, chng ti l mt thiu s nh. Chng ti kim tra bn iu tra xuyn quc gia ni ting tm cu hi c trnh by trong vn bn v khng thy bt c th g ging vi ni dung ca cu hi. Cc kt qu ca cc iu tra ny c lu h s v tc gi sn sang cung cp.

30

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v l mt ng h gin tip cho phng on ca ti. Nu cc nh nghin cu chuyn nghip nghin cu s hiu bit v thay i x hi v tm tnh ngi dn i vi (vis--vis) nhng thay i li b qua hon ton tp cc cu hi ny th chng ta c th mong i g t nhng cng dn trung bnh? S thiu vng hon ton cc iu tra lin quan n cc vn ct yu ny l mt ch bo r rng v s th tr tu i vi s hiu bit mi quan h gia lnh vc chnh tr, kinh t v s tng tc ca tin b k thut. Cng lun c nho nn bi mt qu trnh x hi phc tp. Tt c mi ngi u tham gia, cha m v cc thy c gio vn tr v trng tiu hc, hng xm ca chng ta nh v cc ng nghip ca chng ta ni lm vic. Ti mun a ra vi nhn xt v cc nhm chuyn nghip c trch nhim x hi c bit trong to cng lun.

Trch nhim ca ngh kinh t Chng ta dy sinh vin nhng g? Tro lu mi hp dn v quan trng ca l thuyt tng trng, c gy cm hng mc ln bi Schumpeter (Aghion 1998, Grossman and Helpman 1991), c tha nhn bi phn cn li ca ngh, v s knh trng thng c by t trong mt ch thch khim tn, nhng khng thm su vo cch suy ngh ca kinh t hc dng ch lu. Cc nh kinh t hc rt xut sc (Baumol, Litan and Schramm 2007, Phelps 2008) nhn rt mnh n tinh thn kinh doanh khi nghip (entrepreneurship) trong l gii nhng tnh u vit ca ch ngha t bn. Cc i din mi y ca trng phi o (xem, th d, Kirchner 1985) khng h mt mi lu v bn cht i mi ca cc lc lng th trng t pht. Cc nh kinh t hc chuyn v kinh t hc so snh v nghin cu cc nn kinh t x hi ch ngha v hu x hi ch ngha ku gi lu n mi quan h nhn qu mnh gia cc tnh cht c th ca mt h thng v cc c trng ca tin b k thut. (Mt th d xut sc l Chng 6 trong Balcerowicz, 2005.) Tuy nhin, cc t tng c gi tr ny khng thm nhp, thng qua nhiu kha kinh t hc vi m, phc v cho gio dc l thng (routine education) cho cc nh kinh t hc tr. C mt php th n gin, nhng dt khot: hy kim tra cc sch gio khoa dn nhp c nh hng nht. Ly cun sch gio khoa ca Gregory Mankiw (2001), mt trong nhng sch gio khoa c s dng rng ri nht Hoa K, v cng c dch ra nhiu th ting. N cng c dng nh sch gio khoa c trong t nc ti, Hungary. N l mt kit tc v l lun dy hc, c vit kho, y cc minh ha l th v cc mnh chnh. Th m khng th tm thy mt cu duy nht v qu trnh i mi Schumpeterian! C hng t tn trong bng Ch mc (Index) nhng tn ca Schumpeter khng xut hin. C vi on vng vt v tng

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nhn t nng sut v tin b k thut, nhng iu khng b cho s thiu m t sinh ng qu trnh i mi v s gii hch su sc v tnh nng ng ca ch ngha t bn. Vi s gip ca tr l nghin cu ca ti, Judit Hrkecz, chng ti kim tra nm sch gio khoa bnh dn hn, c s dng rng ri trong dy hc Hoa K v Chu u, k c Hungary v cc nc hu x hi ch ngha khc.31 Mi nhn xt c a ra v cun sch ca Mankiw cng p dng chnh xc cho nm sch gio khoa khc ny. Hy ti a ra vi s do d. Ti chc chn l c cc ngoi l quan trng. Tn ca cc nh kinh t hc xut sc xut hin trn, nhng ngi hon ton bit vai tr ca tinh thn kinh doanh khi nghip v cch tip cn Schumpeterian. Nu cc hc gi ny (v kh nhiu ngi khc chp nhn mt quan im tng t v nn kinh t t bn ch ngha) dy kinh t hc v m, h chc chn khng b qua s gii thch qu trnh i mi v vai tr ca h thng t bn ch ngha trong to ra cc i mi t ph. Mt mu gm su cun sch gio khoa, tt nhin, l khng c tnh i din. Vt qu gii hn ca nghin cu ca ti v bi bo ny i phn tch mt mu ln v c tnh i din ca cc sch gio khoa v rt ra nhng kt lun thch hp. Nhng cho n khi ti cha gp s bc b c chng minh k, ti duy tr gi thuyt cho rng mt phn ln (c l chim u th) ca gio dc bc cao khng gii thch tnh cht c th h thng rt quan trng ny ca ch ngha t bn mt cch y . Kinh t hc dng ch lu thng b ln n v s qung co cho cc tnh cht c ch ca ch ngha t bn. Nu ng vy, n lm cng vic kh ti trong dy hc, khng nhc n mt trong nhng im u vit chnh ca h thng, thin hng ca n ti s i mi v bo khng th dng c. GDP tr thnh ch s chi phi khi ni n o lng tng trng l mt thnh tu ln ca cc nh kinh t hc v thng k hc c mt nh ngha hot ng v mt phng php lun o GDP, c chp nhn ng u trn khp th gii. Nhng thnh cng quan trng ny gy ra s li bing loi no trong nh gi thnh cng v tht bi. S ch c tp trung vo tc tng trng n mt mc qu ng. C l mt vi ch s khc cng c ch : lm pht, cn bng ti kha, ti khon vng lai, mc bt bnh ng, v mt vi ch s na. Nhng khng c cc ch s c chp nhn rng ri o thnh cng hay tht bi, s tng tc hay s chm li ca tin b k thut hiu t ny theo tinh thn ca bi bo hin thi. Cc nn kinh t hu x hi ch ngha Trung ng u t mc GDP trc-1990 vo khong 1994-2000, v cc quc gia k tc Lin X thm ch cn mun hn hay vn di mc
31

Danh mc cc sch gio khoa ny c trong h s, v tc gi c th cung cp nu c yu cu.

60

. ng nhng gia chng cch sng hon ton thay i i vi phn ln dn c. y, trong ng cnh ca bi bo ny, ti khng nhc n nhng thay i v mi trng chnh tr, phn b thu nhp v tnh linh ng x hi. Bn cnh tt c nhng thay i rt quan trng ny, ti nhc n vic s dng gia tng ca cc sn phm mi v cng ngh mi c qu trnh i mi t bn ch ngha to ra. Chng ta than vn v nhng phin mun vi mc GDP nhng phn ln dn c by gi c kt ni vi phn cn li ca x hi bng in thoi v internet, nhiu ngi hn trc nhiu c t v cc gia dng hin i v s dng nhiu sn phm mi khc m trc kia ch sn c cho ngi dn Phng Ty. Chng ta phi pht trin ra cc s o thch hp cho vic quan st v chng minh thch ng v cng bng v cc kt qu ca tin b k thut trong cuc sng hng ngy. Nhu cu b sung o lng GDP vi cc ch s khc phn nh cc kha cnh khc ca phc li v pht trin l kh quen thuc i vi mi nh kinh t hc v nh thng k kinh t. Cc sng kin mi quan trng c nu ra ci thin vic o lng tng trng, v b sung s liu v tng u ra vi cc ch s khc nhau v sc khe, gio dc, phn b thu nhp v vn vn.32 Ti lo rng kha cnh c nu bt trong bi bo ny tc ng ca tin b k thut ln cch sng c th li b b ra ngoi, v khng nhn c s ch nh n xng ng.

Trch nhim ca cc nh chnh tr Cc nh chnh tr, hin nhin, chu trch nhim v chnh sch ca chnh ph. Tt c mi th c nhc ti trn lin quan n cc ng chnh sch ca phn tch, l thuc v trnh thnh tho ca cc nh ra quyt nh chnh tr. Ngay by gi, tuy vy, ti mun a ra vi nhn xt v kha cnh khc ca hot ng chnh tr. Cc lnh o chnh tr cng l cc nh gio dc ca dn tc h. Vi s gip ca tr l ca ti, Tibor Meszmann, v vi ng nghip sng ngoi Hungary, chng ti c mt s bi pht biu trc cng chng ca cc nh lnh o chnh tr ca cc nc sau y: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cng ha Czech, Hungary, Ba Lan, Serbia, Slovakia v Slovenia. Trong mi nc chng ti chn tng thng v/hoc th tng, v (cc) lnh o ca ng (hay cc ng) i lp c nh hng nht. Chng ti th chn cc bi ni hay cc tuyn b thnh vn a ra tng quan chung v nhng thnh tch v tht bi ca t nc (ging nh Thng ip Lin bang Hoa K) c trnh by ch yu
32

Tng thng Cng ha Php mi mt nhm cc nh kinh t hc v thong k hc, do Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen v Jean-Paul Fitoussi ch ta, tho ra cc kin ngh mi nhm ci thin s o lng tng trng v pht trin. Ti thi im ny nhm ang lun chuyn cc bn tho u tin ca bo co (Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi, 2009.)

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cc dp l v s kin quc gia. Hu ht cc vn bn m chng ti phn tch c trnh by trong tm thng u nm 2009. Trong vi trng hp chng ti c th tm thy bi pht biu k nim ln th 20 ca cc s kin 1989, v cung cp mt nh gi chung v chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha.33 Khm ph chung l d tm tt. Trong s 53 bi pht biu v tuyn b chnh tr khng c mt ti liu duy nht no gii thch s lin kt nhn qu gia ch ngha t bn v tin b k thut v tc ng ca s tin b ny ln i sng ngi dn. Tnh u vit ny ca ch ngha t bn khng c gii thch r rng nhm thuyt phc nhn dn rng chuyn t ch ngha x hi sang ch ngha t bn c ngha l mt s dch chuyn sang th gii ca s i mi, hin i ha v tnh nng ng. Mt s nh lnh o chnh tr ni vi li v tin b k thut. Cng cc chnh tr gia hay mt s ngi khc ni thun li v h thng t bn ch ngha. Nhng chng ti khng thy l l va c gii thch trong cc bi ni ca h. Mu 53 tuyn b l ln ni ra tht to: l mt quan st gy sc v tht vng! Chng ta quan st y khng phi thi ca cc nhn vt chnh tr cc oan chng t bn ch ngha t pha cc Hu hay cc T, m l ca cc lnh o ca establishment chnh tr* ng u. H thay nhau trong chnh ph hay v tr i lp, nhng chc chn h l bn ch khng phi k th ca ch ngha t bn th m, h b st mt trong nhng l l tt nht ng h h thng. Hy chng ti ni thm ngay, rt t ngi sn sng u tranh cho ch ngha t bn. Tr nn kh ph bin gia cc chnh tr gia (c bn T ln bn Hu) l i nhn mnh mt ti ca h thng, v pht biu chng li n. Chc chn, phi kim tra nhiu pht biu chnh tr v tuyn b thnh vn hn. Ti cho n bt c thng tin thm no, k c cc phn th d, tc l cc bi pht biu nhn mnh vai tr ca ch ngha t bn trong to ra i mi, v a s gia tng ca tin b k thut vo danh mc nhng thnh cng t c trong thi k chuyn i. Tuy nhin, chng no cha b bc b, ti duy tr mnh : cc chnh tr gia mi im ca di ph chnh tr chu trch nhim nng n v sao nhng gii thch mi quan h nhn qu gia ch ngha t bni mithay i cch sng. Hiu mi lin kt ct yu ny s l mt liu thuc gii c hu hiu chng li tm trng chng t bn ch ngha v cc v lnh o chnh tr ca chng ta khng cung cp thuc gii c . S sao lng, tt nhin, l mt ti nh hn. Ci ti thy chc tc nht l chnh sch dn ty m dn chng ch ngha t bn trong khi li dng thc tin tt c cc pht minh v i mi
33 *

Danh mc cc ti liu c nghin cu c trong h s, v tc gi c th cung cp nu c yu cu.

Nhm nhng ngi nm hu ht quyn lc chnh tr trong x hi (ND).

62

do ch ngha t bn to ra. V mt o c tht ng gh tm khi nhn thy cc nh hot ng phong tro chnh tr huy ng ngi dn cho mt cuc mt ting cc oan chng ch ngha t bn hay mt cuc biu tnh phn i dng my tnh c nhn, in thoi di ng v cc knh truyn thng v tinh hay cp quang. l iu ang xy ra khu vc hu x hi ch ngha: cc nh hot ng phong tro chnh tr, ph nhn thm ch s thc n gin l s thay i h thng xy ra ri, v a ra nhng khu hiu dn ty chng t bn ch ngha ln blog hay ln website trn internet, trnh by cc bi pht biu kch ng m ng qua cc loa phng thanh in t, v lin lc vi nhau qua in thoi di ng nh th khai thc cc k thut do ch ngha t bn to ra.

Tnh lin kt ni v nn dn ch Trong khi chng ta chng bit g v s hiu v nh gi mi lin kt nhn qu ch ngha t bni mi nhng thay i trong cch sng trong u c ngi dn, chng ta c s thu hiu no theo hng ngc li ca s tng tc, c th l, tc ng ca tin b k thut (hay chnh xc hn, ca tin b trong lnh vc thng tin-truyn thng) ln quan im chnh tr ca ngi dn cc nc hu x hi ch ngha. Cc Bng 1.11, 1.12 v 1.13 tm tt s liu iu tra v thi ca nhng ngi tr li vng hu x hi ch ngha i vi dn ch, ch ngha t bn v h thng x hi ch ngha trc kia. Trong cc bng trnh by y, dn c c phn ra hai loi: nhng ngi dng hay khng dng internet thng xuyn. S khc bit l kh n tng.34 Nhng ngi c kt ni vi th gii cng ngh thng tin hin i c quan im thun li hn v dn ch v ch ngha t bn, v ph phn hn i vi ch qua, l mt du hiu khch l. Nhng ngi dng internet c min nhim i vi tnh cm luyn tic ch c x hi ch ngha mt cm gic mnh ln trong nhiu ngi, c bit t cuc khng hong kinh t mi y. Nhng kt qu kinh nghim c nu trn khp kho vi nhng khm ph ca mt dng nghin cu khc: nghin cu v tnh kt ni-interconnectivity. ngha trc cm ca thut ng c biu th r rng bi tn ca n: cc c nhn c kt ni vi nhau bng cc cng c v th thc k thut khc nhau. E-mail ng mt vai tr quan trng trong kha cnh ny. Ngi dn cng c kh nng gi e-mail cho nhau, mng kt ni cng tr nn cht. Hin tng chc chn c th quan st v o lng c.

34

y chng ta chm vo mt vn rt quan trng liu s xut hin ca truyn thng cng ngh cao c m rng bt bnh ng x hi hay khng. Tm mt cu tr li vt qu gii hi ca bi bo ny.

63

 y ti da vo mt bi bo l th ca Christopher R. Kedzie (1995), ngi nhc n mt s o o lng kt ni. Do khng l chuyn gia trong lnh vc , ti khng th nh gi liu s o c dng trong nghin cu ca Kedzie c l s o tt nht sn c cho mc nh ng dng n. Chp nhn c iu kin s la chn ca ng, cc kt qu c bn ca nghin cu ca ng chc chn ng nhc ti. Bn cnh nhng kt qu tnh ton khc, ng ng ti tng quan gia dn ch (c o bng cc ch s khc nhau) v kt ni. tng quan ny l 0.73, mnh hn tng quan ca dn ch vi GDP trn u ngi (0.57). Ti thut li li tuyn b vi s e d no , do ti thiu hiu bit trong lnh vc s dng ch s tnh kt ni. Mt nghin cu mi y hn ca Frisch (2003), tuy vy, cng c nhng khm ph ca Kedzie. Hy vng, nghin cu theo hng s tip tc.
Bng 1.11: Tha mn vi nn dn ch Dn c c chia ra thnh nhng ngi dng v khng dng internet
Nc Ngi dng Internet Ngi khng dng Internet

Trung bnh Trung ng u Cng ha Czech Hungary* Ba Lan Nga Slovenia 2,6 2,5 2,2 2,7 3,0 2,2

Phn trm 30 42 23 34 14 57

Trung bnh 2,8 2,8 2,4 2,9 3,1 2,1

Phn trm 70 57 77 66 86 43

Ghi ch. Trong ct ba (v ct 5) l t l ca s ngi dng (hay khng dng) Internet. Cu hi l: Bn tha mn th no vi cch nn dn ch hot ng. Cc cu tr li c k vng theo thang 4-mc: 1 = hon ton tha mn 2 = hi tha mn; 3 = khng rt tha mn; 4 = hon ton khng tha mn. Bng cho kt qu trung bnh (khng c quyn s.) * Ti c nhng bo lu lin quan n s liu ngi dung Internet Hungary. S liu c v qu thp so vi cc s liu thng k khc. (JK.) Ngun. Rose (2004.)

Bng 1.12: nh gi h thng kinh t t bn ch ngha: Dn c c chia ra thnh nhng ngi dng v khng dng internet
Nc Ngi dng Internet Ngi khng dng Internet

Trung bnh Trung ng u Cng ha Czech

Hungary* 1,9 2,5 0,7 1,1 0,9 1,6

Phn trm
30 42 23 34 14 57

Trung bnh
0,4 0,7 0,5 0,9 0,8 0,7

Phn trm
70 58 77 66 86 43

Ba Lan Nga
Slovenia

Ghi ch. Trong ct ba (v ct 5) l t l ca s ngi dng (hay khng dng) Internet. Cu hi l: Bn hi long th no vi h thng t bn ch ngha. Cc cu tr li c k vng theo thang 21-mc: -10 = ti nht, 0 = trung tnh, +10 = tt nht. Bng cho kt qu trung bnh (khng c quyn s.) * Ti c nhng bo lu lin quan n s liu ngi dung Internet Hungary. S liu c v qu thp so vi cc s liu thng k khc. (JK.) Ngun. Rose (2004.).

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Bng 1.13: nh gi h thng kinh t x hi ch ngha: Dn c c chia ra nhng ngi dng v khng dng internet
Nc Ngi dng Internet Ngi khng dng Internet

Trung bnh Trung ng u Cng ha Czech Hungary* Ba Lan Nga Slovenia

1,1 2,6 0,2 0,4 1,6 3,0

Phn trm
30 42 23 34 14 57 3,7 0,6 3,0 3,4 4,4 4,0

Trung bnh
70 58 77 66 86 43

Note. Trong ct ba (v ct 5) l t l ca s ngi dng (hay khng dng) Internet. Cu hi l: Bn tha mn ra sao vi h thng x hi ch ngha trc kia. Cc cu tr li c k vng theo thang 21-mc: -10 = ti nht, 0 = trung tnh, +10 = tt nht. Bng cho kt qu trung bnh (khng c quyn s.) * Ti c nhng bo lu lin quan n s liu ngi dung Internet Hungary. S liu c v qu thp so vi cc s liu thng k khc. (JK.) Ngun. Rose (2004.)

Ti im ny hy ti nhc li nhn xt trc y ca mnh v vai tr ca cng ngh thng tin-truyn thng hin i trong ph hy quyn lc chc nh bn thch ca ng Cng sn v h t tng chnh thng Marxist-Leninist. Ti ti ng ti cc s kin xy ra 20 nm trc Lin X v cc nc x hi ch ngha trc y Trung ng u. Vn , tuy vy, khng h li thi. C hai nc nh, Cuba v Bc Triu Tin, ni chng c my thay i trong nn kinh t, v nn c ti Cng sn c bn tay st vn thnh hnh. V c hai nc ln, ni cc cuc ci cch su rng c a ra v a nn kinh t n gn ch ngha t bn trong khi cu trc chnh tr thay i rt t, vn cn s c ti ca mt ng duy nht. Cng ngh thng tin-truyn thng hin i s nh hng th no n cc nc ? Trung Quc v Vit Nam nng n li dng mi li th do cc thnh tu cch mng ca tin b k thut cung cp v ng thi lo s cc h qu. Hai mc tiu ny ca ban lnh o li ch ti a t tin b k thut v s bo v ti a c quyn quyn lc mu thun hon ton vi nhau, kt qu l s do d, cc bc tin v li, yu-ght nc i. Vn ln khc cn phn tch l cc trin vng: tng lai ca s tng tc gia cc ln sng i mi sp ti v cch sng l g? V nhng ngy bi quan ca mnh ti on trc cc kch bn tai ha khc nhau. Ngay c khng c ti tin tri chng ta c th tin on d dng s lm dng cc thnh tu k thut. Ti 65

c nhiu tng thut v cc n lc ca chnh ph Trung Quc p dng ch kim duyt chnh tr i vi internet, chn truyn cc knh TV nht nh hay nh sp cc blog ni thng.35 V mt phn ngy cng tng ca tt c my tnh dng Trung Quc c sn xut trong nc, l d p buc a phn mm kim duyt c kim sot tp trung vo h iu hnh. ng bun, cc cng ty ln phng Ty lo s mt th trng Trung Quc khng l sn sng hp tc vi nh chc trch trong cc n lc ca h a s kim duyt chnh tr vo. Khi Orwell vit cun sch Mt chn Tm T [Nineteen Eighty-Four] su mi nm trc (Orwell 1949/1950), ng Anh Ln khng c thit b c hnh dung trong tiu thuyt. Nhng ngy nay khng c kh khn k thut g lp cc camera v cc thit b nghe ln trong mi cn h v vn phng. Hy tng tng mt Stalin tng lai vi cc dng c theo di v vin thng, kin quyt dng chng theo di tt c mi cng dn! Nhng ri, v nhng ngy lc quan hn ca mnh ti thot khi o nh c mng, v hy vng rng cng ngh hin i mang li nhiu ln s phn quyn d cc nn c ti c n lc n u m bo s tp trung ha. Nu nh tp quyn ngh ra mt cch mi chn thng tin, th s c hng trm v hng ngn nh phn quyn, nhng ngi s dng my tnh y sng to, s chc thng cc vng vy v chng ngi.36

1.4 Cc nhn xt tng kt

Bi bo ca ti bao trm mt lot bao la cc ch . Ti khng c nh gii hn bi nghin cu cho mt hay hai vn . Chng ta ng vo mt vng trng mnh mng trn tm bn mt khc y mu sc ca nghin cu v kinh t hc so snh v chuyn i hctransitology hu x hi ch ngha. Mc ch ca bi bo ca ti cho mt tng quan chung v ci vng trng . Trong s rt nhiu nghin cu c gi tr v nhiu ch , mt s c nhc ti trong bi bo ca ti. ng tic, mi ch c lng ln ti liu chuyn mn ca ring n nhng b tch r rt ra khi nhau, thiu s tham chiu cho. Mt mi lin kt trn mng, mt link (cc ch mu xanh, c gch di, gip chng ta nhy t mt vn bn sang vn bn khc), mt
35

Xem Chao (2009) v Timmer (2009) v cc n lc ca Trung Quc thi hnh kim duyt chnh tr. V mt tng quan xem mc kim duyt internet [censorship] trong Wikipedia (2009b).

36

Trong ch thch trc ti nhc n bi bo ca Timmer (2009) c cng b trn internet. Bin tp vin yu cu bnh lun. y l bnh lun u tin: Th ci g ngn cc cng dn Trung Quc nh dng li [format li] cc a cng ca mnh v ci t cc bn sao Windows lu?

66

t kha v cng c chnh ca truyn thng hin i, ng tic, khng kt ni nhng nghin cu v nhng thay i hu x hi ch ngha trong chnh tr, nn kinh t, cng lun, cng ngh, thng tin v truyn thng. Ti gi to ra cc link tt c cc nh nghin cu ca cc lnh vc tch bit s c c nhng thu hiu mi quan trng. Ti khng chn cc link thc s vo vn bn i bn click [nhp chut] nhng ch t ti th gy cm hng cho tr tng tng ca bn cn phi t cc link u. S nhn mnh ca bi bo ca ti khng phi l s m t chi tit mt s kt ni hay s kt ni khc, m to cho bn mt n tng v tnh ton th ca cc tng tc. V cng c c hng t ti ng nghin cu su, quan st thc nghim v phn tch l thuyt, hu nh cha c ng n hay thm ch khng c nhc n trong bi bo ca ti. Nghin cu v tin b k thut v mi quan h ca n i vi x hi, ang tip din trn mt khng gian a chiu. Cc im c tho lun trong bi bo ca ti nm trong mt khng gian-con v ti bit rng c cc chiu quan trng nm ngoi khng gian-con ca ti.37 Ti mong gi nh ti tr hn, vi tt c nng lc cn thit cho s khm ph cn trng vng trng ny nh mt tng th. Mt ch hp dn v thch thc tr tu n th no cho nghin cu! Ti hy vng bi bo ca mnh s c v nhng ngi khc tham gia vo lnh vc v c bn cha c nghin cu ny. Trong mi trng hp, ti mun tip tc nghin cu s tng tc gia thay i ca cc chiu chnh tr v kinh t ca h thng v cc tnh cht ca tin b k thut.

37

Hy ti nhc n vi chiu khng xut hin trong bi bo ca ti: nh hng ca cng ngh mi v thng tin truyn thng ln mi quan h gia cc c nhn, cc nhm x hi, nhng s nh c, cc nc, v cc quc gia l g? C th k vng ci g lin quan n mi quan h gia mt mt l thng tin truyn thng cng ngh cao, v mt khc l nh nc quc gia v ton cu ha? (Castells 1996-1998, Nyri 2004, Webster, 2004). Tng lai ca ch ngha t bn. Thi i thng tin mi c dn n nhng thay i trit ca cc tnh cht c bn ca ch ngha t bn? Hay n c to ra mt h thng mi m khng cn th gi l ch ngha t bn c na? (Hai nh kinh t hc Hungary, Katalin Szab v Balzs Hmori (2006) vit mt cun sch l th vi tiu ph nh sau: Ch ngha t bn k thut s hay mt h thng kinh t mi. Xem thm Haug (2003.) S thay i cch mng ca cng ngh thng tin truyn thng tc ng th no n cch thc thc tin ca vic vn hnh mt doanh nghip, c bit trong khu vc ti chnh? Nhng h ly ca Thi i Thng tin mi lin quan n cc quyn s hu, c bit ti s tn trng quyn s hu tr tu l g? Mt dng t duy kh khc l i xem xt mc trit l tru tng hn s hiu bit ca chng ta v lch s nhn loi. Vai tr ca nhng thay i v cng ngh sn xut v tng tc con ngi ln cc nh ch ca x hi, v ln cc chc nng ca chnh ph l g?

67

2. Nn kinh t thiu ht nn kinh t d tha

V l thuyt th trng* 2.1 Dn nhp
Cc n tng Nu chng ta vo t Economic Shortage (thiu ht kinh t) ca Wikipedia ting Anh, chng ta thy mt bc nh trn u trang: ca hng tht Ba Lan trong cc nm 1980.38 Tt c cc k u hon ton trng rng. Ngi by gi vo mt ca hng thc phm Ba Lan c th thy cc k y p: cc sn phm trong nc v nhp khu vi s la chn phong ph v lng ly. Ti i Trung Quc nm 1999 nhn ln ti bn th hai cun Thiu ht (1980) ca ti. (Tiu ting Anh v ting Trung Quc ca cun sch l Kinh t hc ca s Thiu ht). Nhng ngi h tng, cc bin tp vin ca cun sch v cc hc sinh bit k cun sch a ti n cc ca hng v cc ch thc phm. Mt ngi trong s h ni: n lc vit mt cun sch mi, thay cho kinh t hc ca s thiu ht by gi l kinh t hc ca s d tha. Ti khng m nhn vic vit cun sch, nhng ch t trong khun kh mt tiu lun ti th phc ha vi tng c bn ca kinh t hc ca nn kinh t d tha. T tng trung tm ca tiu lun c th tm tt th ny: tnh cht c trng ca h thng x hi ch ngha l nn kinh t thiu ht, cn ca h thng t bn ch ngha l nn kinh t d tha.39 Theo Schumpeter vic nghin cu bt u bng mt hnh ng nhn thc tin gii tch, chuyn ch nguyn liu cho cc n lc phn tch. ng gi n l vision (o nh, ci nhn xut thn, s nhn xa trng rng). Do tc ng ca vision cc th hin ra di nh sng mi
*

Vn bn hin thi l phin bn mi, c xem xt li v c b sung bng nhiu phn mi ca tiu lun c cng b trong tp ch Kzgazdasgi Szemle (Kornai, 2010a). Ti cm n s ng h m ti nhn c t nhiu ng nghip cho nghin cu lm c s cho tiu lun ny v cho vic bin son vn bn hin thi. Ti c bit nhn mnh s gip nhiu mt ca Chikn Attila v Mtyusz Zsolt trong su tm d liu v lm r cc vn . Ti nhn c nhiu li khuyn c gi tr v c th s dng tt t cc ng nhip sau y: Dniel Brooks, Dniel Zsuzsa, Gcs Jnos, Gyrffy Dra, Lack Mria, Madarsz Aladr, Mtyusz Zsolt, Nagy gnes, Palcz va, Prkopa Andrs, Simonovits Andrs, Szsz Domokos v Tth Istvn Jnos. Ti nh gi cao s cng tc tn ty v chu o ca cc cng s trc tip ca ti, Fancsovits Rita, Magyari Ildik, Remnyi Andrea v Szcsi Katalin trong vic thu thp thng tin, d liu v ti liu tham kho cng nh trong son tho tiu lun. Ti mang n Collegium Budapest, m bu khng kh gy cm hng v s gip thc tin c hiu qu ca n lm nh bt vic khc phc kh khn ca cng vic. Xem Wikipedia, Shortage, 2010 [Thng 1-2011 bc nh ny b g b khi trang , NQA]. Ti do d vi tn gi. Bn cnh t tbblet (ting Anh surplus, d tha) c th tnh n bsg (plenty, d d), teltettsg (glut, tha thi) hay t slack ( m) khng th dch ra ting Hungary c. T tbblet t tra ph hp nht biu th hin tng c m t trong tiu lun ca ti.

38 39

(Schumpeter, 1954, tr. 4142). Ti tin, rng chnh n tng m nh kinh t hc ca nn kinh t thiu ht x hi ch ngha ngc nhin v cung phong ph ca th trng t bn ch ngha, l ci gi ra vision loi nh vy. Ti cho n tng ny l quan trng. Chnh v ti so snh ch ngha t bn vi h thng khc theo ngha no vi ci i lp ca chnh n c l trong n ti c th thy ci, m cc nh kinh t ng nghip ca ti lun sng trong n khng pht hin ra do khng th thot ra khi cch nhn quen thuc. Nu ti ni chuyn vi cc nh kinh t hc dng ch lu v ch ny, thng h ch ng vi ti mt na. D thuyt phc h rng h thng x hi ch ngha l nn kinh t thiu ht. Nhng v sao chng ta li gi h thng t bn ch ngha l nn kinh t d tha? ng, l c lng hng di do trong cc ca hng v cc nh kho ca cc nh my, v thng c nng lc d phng trong sn xut nhng ng chng y, mc cn. Nh sn xut sn xut ngn y, v khng t hn, thng gia tr ngn y kho hng, v khng t hn, bi v ngn y cn cho cn bng th trng. Nn kinh t x hi ch ngha khng cn bng, nhng nn kinh t t bn ch ngha th c. Tuy c dao ng quanh cn bng (by gi ng l s lch khi cn bng ny rt ln) th nhng xu hng di hn vn l cn bng. C phi ch l tranh ci v tn gi? Ci m dng ch lu gi l cn bng th trng, ti gi l nn kinh t d tha phi chng s khc bit ch l th gia hai loi tuyn b? Nu ng vy, th ti y ti c th ngng bi vit, v khng b cng tranh ci di ch v cc tn gi. Mc d cc hin tng xy ra trc mt h v trc mt ti l nh nhau, chng ta hiu chng khc nhau, v cch nhn ca chng ta khc nhau. Ti gii ngha cng chnh cc s thc (nng lc d phng ln sn sng dng ngay, kho y di do, lc lng lao ng tm vic lm) v c bn theo cch khc. C th l, mi nh sn xut v thng gia, tng ngi mt, cn nhc cc li ch ring ca h v thy rng: cn gi ng ngn ny d tr, hoc nng lc d phng. y th m, ton b tng sn phm c th bn c nh vic dng ngay lp tc ton b sn phm c th bn c ang c trong cc kho v cc nng lc d phng vi tr nh l ln hn (thm ch ln hn rt nhiu!) mc m tt c nhng ngi mua c th mua. C th l, nh kinh t hc v m khng nh rng [t l ngi c] cng n vic lm ph hp vi t l t nhin. Th nhng v iu ny vn c nhiu ngi cm thy rng h b loi khi nhm ca nhng ngi c vic lm v thnh tu x hi s tng ln nu h cng c vic lm. Nu ti ng, v h thng t bn ch ngha thc l nn kinh t d tha, th vic c cc h qu quan trng. N c tc ng ln ng x ca nhng ngi tham gia h thng. Nhiu nt

69

c im ca ch ngha t bn nhn c s soi sng mi. Phn tch ca chng ta chng mc y c th thc y s hiu thc chng (positive) y hn ca ch ngha t bn.40 Ngoi ra cng c c cc bi hc chun tc ng ch . Nh kinh t hc dng ch lu e ngi, nu trong mt nn kinh t t bn ch ngha xut hin d tha (excess) nng lc, d tr qu ln, d cung. Vic ny c coi l lng ph ngun lc. Ngc li ti coi nn kinh t d tha l mt trong cc c hnh quan trng nht ca ch ngha t bn ng, tnh cht c tc ng thun li nh vy, m cng i cng nhiu loi tc ng ph khng mong mun. Lm r khi nim trong cch tip cn u tin C th i hi t tiu lun khoa hc rng n phi trnh by dng t duy ca n bng cc khi nim c xc nh r rng. a s tuyt i cc nh kinh t hc khng h c vn g vi cc khi nim nh cu v cung. Cu sau xut hin nh t ca mt chng ca cc ln xut bn u ca cun sch ni ting ca Samuelson: Chng ta c th bin ngay c mt con vt thnh nh kinh t hc thnh tho. N ch cn hc hai t cu v cung. (Samuelson,1976 [1948] tr. 126). ng tic, hai khi nim ny v ti ni thm: nhiu khi nim khc ca kinh t hc vi m chun na gy cho ti nhiu bn khon, song vic phn tch ph phn chng v gii thiu k hn b my khi nim ch n lt sau khi ti phc ha cc hin tng nghin cu m ti mun s dng cc khi nim y. V th ti lm vic ny qua hai bc. Ti m t cc khi nim c kin ngh ch vi s nh ngha lng lo trong dn nhp. Ti ghi nhn rng phn ln cc bn c ca ti dng t in thng dng, ch khng phi t vng m ti mun a vo. Nh th trc mt ti a ra trc cc gii thch khi nim sau y. Ci m ti gi l d tha, i th tng ng vi d cung ca kinh t hc chun, tc l n m ch cc hin tng trong cung vt cu. Nn kinh t d tha, nu thiu t kho hn v phi dung t in chun, th ti cng c th gi l nn kinh t d cung, ging nh chng ta cng c th i tn nn kinh t thiu ht thnh nn kinh t d cu. Ci trc l trng thi th trng trong cc hin tng d cung l rt thng xuyn, cn ci sau l trng thi trong cc hin tng d cu l rt thng xuyn. Nu ti ni trc ngn y, th c th hy vng trong bn c kinh t gia cc lin tng thch hp bt u hot ng, v s c th hiu iu ti mun ni m khng c kh khn g.

Tnh t pozitv (positive) trong ting Hung c nhiu ngha. N c th by t s nh gi thun li ca hin tng no (ngha tch cc). Tiu lun ca ti khng dng t theo ngha ny, m s dng n vi t cch mt khi nim thng dng trong trit hc khoa hc, nh ci i lp ca tnh t chun tc (normative), ch cch tip cn nhm m t v gii thch s thc cng khng mang tnh gi tr (value-free) cng tt (ngha thc chng).

40

70

Mun hn, theo tin trnh by cc suy ngh ca mnh, ti s quay li vic nh ngha chnh xc hn cc khi nim v cc vn o lng lin quan mt cch chi tit. V tr trong tho lun khoa hc kinh t ca cch tip cn c dng trong khoa hc Hu nh khng c cu duy nht no ca tiu lun ny m khng c tin ti liu tham kho ca n. Mi trng phi kinh t hc u c nhiu iu mun ni v th trng. Tnh th ca cc nh kinh t hc dng ch lu l tin li nht; h khng phi lo lng nhiu vi khung kh khi nim v vic t c s ca cc vn thnh phn do h kho st, bi v h ly tt c t cc sch gio khoa v t ti liu tham kho v ch . Tiu lun ca ti cng c th c coi nh ti liu tranh lun. Trong vi vn quan trng ti chng li quan nim ca dng ch lu v ti kin ngh cch tip cn khc. ng tic, ti chng c ngay c by nhiu s gim bt kh khn, rng ti c th gia nhp m khng c s bo lu no vo trng phi phi chnh thng heterodox ny hay khc, cc trng phi hon ton hay phn no chng li dng ch lu, v n gin dng ln mt tng na trn kin trc t tng ca chng, hay c th s dng t vng ca chng. Tuy vy ti khng cm thy c c. Nu khng l ton b dng t duy, song ch t nhiu nn tng quan trng ti ly t cc bc tin bi t tng. V mt s vn cc khng nh ca ti gn hay ging mt s lun ca dng ch lu, nhiu im quan trng th gn mt thit vi tro lu phi chnh thng ny hay n. Ti vui ch ra cc s thu nhn v chng ln ny. Nhiu nhn t thc y ti vit tiu lun ny. Cuc khng hong va xy ra v vn cha kt thc hin nay khi ng s t xem xt li trong mi nh kinh t hc tn tm. Chng ta phi ngh k: liu kho cng c c dng phn tch cc qu trnh kinh t c tt hay khng. Vi ti, bn cnh ln sng xem xt li chung , c cc ng c c nhn na. Hn nm mi nm trc, khi vit lun vn tin s S tp trung qu mc ca qun l kinh t (1957) ti cm thy rng s thiu ht kinh nin l mt trong nhng vn c bn ca nn kinh t x hi ch ngha. Cc cng trnh mun hn ca ti Anti-Equilibrium (1970), Thiu ht (1980) v H thng x hi ch ngha (1993a) nhiu ln t cc vn v thiu ht, d tha, cn bng v bt cn bng ln v tr hng u. y l ch tr li lun ca ti, m hnh nh sut cuc i mnh ti khng th thot khi. Th nhng, ci m tiu lun hin thi nu ra cho bn c, khng n gin l s tr li cc ti c ca ti. Trong khi ch l khng i, hiu bit l thuyt v kinh nghim thc t ca ti tng ln trong cc thp k. Ti hy vng b my phn tch c ti xt li v tip tc trau chut nhiu ln pht trin tng bc mt. Ti mun tin,

71

tiu lun ny l s chnh l c sa cha mt s im, c gia cng k lng hn trong nhiu chi tit, thm vo cc tng su hn, c sc thi hn trc ca cc phn tch trc y. Nghin cu trc y ca ti tp trung vo cc qu trnh ca nn kinh t x hi ch ngha, ch ngha t bn ng hn ch xut hin trong cc cng trnh y v mc ch so snh, vi t cch trng hp i lp. By gi trng tm dch chuyn: nghin cu ch ngha t bn l ch trung tm. Nh th tiu lun ny khng ch mun pht trin tip b my phn tch, m trc ht n vt qu cc cng trnh trc y ca ti v i tng phn tch.41 Ci m by gi ti th lm, l lm trn na vng trn, l chn vi ming cn thiu ca tr chi xp hnh c xp na chng.42 Ti mun chng minh cho chnh mnh (v c l cng s thnh cng thuyt phc bn c v iu ny), rng kho cng c v cch tip cn c dng cc cng trnh trc y ca ti cng thch hp cho phn tch th trng t bn ch ngha. S b im trc cc gii hn v cu trc ca i tng phn tch V c bn ti xem xt h thng t bn ch ngha, ti ch nhc n mt s hin tng ca h thng x hi ch ngha vi ni, v cng ch nhm mc ch so snh.43 Nn kinh t hn hp c trng cho ch ngha t bn, trong bn cnh lnh vc c s hu t nhn v c ch th trng iu phi th s hu cng v cc hnh thc s hu khc, cng nh cc hot ng do cc c ch quan liu iu phi cng c vai tr ng k. Nm chng u ca tiu lun ca ti ch xem xt lnh vc th trng, trong chng 6 khu vc phi th trng cng c ni n. Ti ch kho st th trng cc sn phm v cc dch v, cng nh th trng lao ng, tc l lnh vc thc. Ti khng xt lnh vc tin t, khu vc ti chnh tin t, cng nh cc hin tng th trng ca cc khon u t tin, tn dng, cc cng c tin t, cng chng xt chnh sch tin t v ti kha ca nh nc, nhiu nht ti ch ng n nhm ch ny vi ni. Ti th nhn rng hu nh khng th ni v th trng hng ha v dch v, cng nh lao ng, m li hon ton loi tr kho st khu vc tin t, tc l tin, tn dng, li, chnh sch tin t v ti kha, v s tng tc ca hai lnh vc ny. Hu nh khng th th m ti vn
Tuy tiu lun hin thi nhp vo cc cng trnh va k, da trn cc kt qu nghin cu nu trong ti khng th mong i cc bn c phi bit trc chng. Ti c gng din t ni dung cn ni ca mnh sao cho ngi cha tng c mt cng trnh trc no ca ti cng c th theo di c. Tuy nhin ti cn ni thm: vic hiu cun H thng x hi ch ngha (1992) ca ti gip rt nhiu cho s hiu tiu lun ny. Nghin cu hin thi c th coi l s tip tc ca cng trnh nm 1992. 42 V, ng tic, vn lun thiu cc b phn, cc ming khng th thiu xp xong ton b tr xp hnh! Ti va tuyn b rng tiu lun khng cp n lnh vc tin t, tuy thiu n th khng th c s gii thch ton din v hot ng ca th trng. 43 Tt c ci m ti mun ni v ch ngha x hi lin quan n cc vn c tho lun trong tiu lun ny, ti tng kt trong cun H thng x hi ch ngha (1992) ca ti.
41

72

quyt nh vic phn ranh gii cng nhc ny. Ti m nhn vic vit mt tiu lun khng qu di, ch khng phi mt cun sch ln bao trm ton b h thng t bn ch ngha. Mc d ti loi tr cc mng cc k quan trng v hot ng ca h thng ra khi nhm ti ca tiu lun, phn cn li vn rt rng. Ti s buc phi cp rt ngn n cc vn ln v kh, m v mi trong s c lng ti liu khng l, v ng c cc tiu lun ring. c gi d nh hng hn ti phc ha trc cu trc ca tiu lun. Cc chng 2.2-2.6 tho lun cc trng hp c s. Trong qu trnh kho st trng hp c s cc chng 2.2-2.5 m t hin tng v cc mi quan h nhn qu gy ra v ti to cc hin tng. Chng 2.6 tho lun cc h qu v vic nh gi chng. Chng 2.7 tho lun cc trng hp c bit khc vi trng hp c s. Khi bn c n cui tiu lun, s tr nn r rng ti gi ci g l trng hp c s v trng hp c bit.

2.2 Th trng ca cc hng ha v dch v: c ch ti to d tha

Th d lch s kinh t: Ngnh in thoi M Vi mt th d lch s kinh t ti mun a c gi n gn hn cc hin tng, m mun hn chng ta tho lun mc tng qut hn. Hy xem mt cch ngn gn, ci g xy ra Hoa K trong lnh vc in thoi (GroverLebeau,1996, AtkinLauLin, 2006). Chng ta bt u bo co t u cc nm 1980, khi vic truyn dn thng ip vn hu nh ch qua dy in thoi, v tp on AT&T khng l c v th gn c quyn. Nhng thay i quan trng xy ra u tin trong cng ngh. Gn cui cc nm 1980 vic s dng in thoi di ng ngy cng lan nhanh (KingWest, 2002).44 Chng ta chuyn sang nhng thay i cng ngh mun hn ngay sau. Bc ngot xy ra trong c cu th trng. Nm 1984 lut lin bang quy nh chia AT&T thnh cc n v nh hn. Tip sau vic ny c cu cc hng tham gia th trng thay i nhiu ln, cc doanh nghip hp nht hay chia tch, mt s hng bc vo, cc hng khc rt khi th trng. Gia s thay i nhiu kiu ny ci vn lun lun tn ti l kt cu c bn ca hnh thi th trng. Khng cn c quyn na, nhng cng chng phi cnh tranh hon ho b nguyn t ha, m l cnh tranh c tnh c quyn ca mt s t hng c sc mnh khng l ganh ua vi nhau.

44

Cu chuyn c bit! a phn Hoa K i u v i mi sng to, v Chu u i theo. Trong ph bin cc mng in thoi di ng th t li o ngc.

73

C cu th trng c trng ny l nguyn nhn, cng l h qu ca tnh nng ng ca ngnh. Xut hin cc i mi sng to mi hn v mi hn. By gi in thoi di ng khng ch truyn cc thng ip m thanh, m c thng ip bng ch, ri mun hn c hnh nh na. Chic in thoi di ng nh d b ti ngy cng c kh nng cung cp nhiu chc nng: ngoi vic truyn thng ip m thanh chng ta c th chp nh vi n, lu tr nh, cng c th hot ng nh bn tnh v vn vn. Hng i mi khc: truyn thng ip thoi khng gn vi my in thoi theo ngha truyn thng. C th ci t phn mm vo my tnh, m trc kia c dng cho cc mc ch khc, truyn m thanh: xut hin Skype v cc mng khc ging th. Ri khng lu sau vic truyn nh ca ngi ni gia hai bn ni chuyn b sung cho vic truyn ting ni. Vic hp nht cc chc nng ca my tnh v in thoi cng c thc hin di cc hnh thc khc. iPhone xut hin v mun hn l iPad, cng nh nhiu loi cnh tranh vi chng: chic my nh c th b ti thc hin mt cch d s dng khng ch tt c cc chc nng m mt my in thoi di ng khi c th lm, m cn nhiu chc nng lu tr tht v gii tr khc na. Mi ln sng i mi sng to mi hn ko cc nh sn xut-cung cp dch v mi hn vo ngnh, cc hng c bin mt hay tr thnh khng ng k. Th nhng c trng quan trng ca c cu th trng vn cn: vi hng khng l ch ng phn p o th trng, cnh tranh vi nhau, b sung cho nhau, c th hp tc vi nhau v/hoc chn p ln nhau. V bn cung khng th vch ra rch ri cc ng ranh gii ngnh. Thuc v y l ton b mng cung, cc hng nghin cu tham gia pht trin cc i mi, cc nh sn xut cc trang b, cc hng dch v vin thng, cc thng gia bn thit b v phn mm, cc nh sn xut phn mm v vn vn. Cc ranh gii ngnh b nhe i: lnh vc in thoi ha vo lnh vc my tnh hay cng nghip gii tr hay cng nghip nhip nh v vn vn. Tng t, nu chng ta th phn loi nhu cu ca ngi mua, cc ng ranh gii cng lng. Trc kia chng ta c th tch bit rch ri nhu cu ca mt ngi v in thoi, th t, chuyn in tn, chp nh, hc tp, thu thp thng tin mt cch t xut (ad hoc) vn vn. By gi mt dng cng ngh ng thi tha mn nhiu trong s cc nhu cu ny. Ngay ch v cc ng ranh gii b nhe i cng chng rnh mch l c th i snh tp cung no vi tp cu loi no. Ti mi hng mi quan h lin quan n li tc tng i vi quy m (increasing return to scale) u c hiu lc. Khon u t ban u tham gia th trng, cng nh chi ph c nh cn cho vn hnh v sau l rt ln. Lng tiu th cng ln, chi ph c nh ny cng c phn tn (nh). Li ch ca mi hng thuyt phc cng nhiu ngi mua s dng thit b 74

hay dch v ca mnh, ch khng phi ca i th. Gii hn ca vic tng s lng khng phi do nhng cn nhc v chi ph xc nh, m do cc gii hn ca vic bn. Qu trnh schumpeterean v ph hy sng to lao vn vt, c th l s sng to xy ra nhanh hn s ph hy. Cc lc thc y vic tham gia th trng v bnh trng l cc k ln. Trong khi cc m phanh (thng) c hiu qu li lm chm vic rt khi-s chn p. Ai mt ln tham gia vo ngnh, ngi quyt lit bm ly vic tn ti gia nhng ngi tranh ua, thm ch vi ci gi ca nhng tn tht. Khi in thoi di ng ph bin hng lot, in thoi hu tuyn (c dy) bt u thoi lui ( hnh 2.1). Nhng nhp thoi lui kh chm. Chng h c chuyn l, ngay khi s ngi dng in thoi di ng tng thm mt, th ngay lp tc s ngi dng in thoi c dy gim i mt. Hai mng sng bn cnh nhau, song song nhau lu; thm ch ngi ta cn thit lp cc iu kin kt ni chng. Nhng cng ngh in thoi khc nhau v cc r nhnh ca cc cng ngh cng nhau c nng lc d tha rt ln. Ni cch khc, xut hin d tha cung ln t cc dch v mang tnh in thoi.

Hnh 2.1. S ng in thoi c dy v s thu bao in thoi di ng trn mt trm dn Hoa K, 19902007

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
19 9 19 0 91 19 9 19 2 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 9 19 6 97 19 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 01 20 0 20 2 0 20 3 04 20 0 20 5 06 20 07

in thoi c dy Thu bao in thoi di ng

Ngun: International Telecommunications Union, (2007).

75

Chng ta va xem xt mt qu trnh nhiu thp k theo kiu hu nh in tn. Nu ti bt k ngy no ca giai on di ny gi nh cc nh kinh t nghin cu l thuyt th trng phng vn c nhn cc lnh o ca cc hng sn xut v dch v, vi cu hi: liu hng ngi c th cung cp dch v in thoi cho nhiu ngi s dng hn (nhiu hn nhiu!) hay khng? c l tt c h tr li c mt cch dt khot. y l s biu hin d cung mt cch c trng. Theo ngha ny th trng ca lnh vc in thoi trong trng thi d cung thng xuyn. V by gi, ch t mt lt, hy so snh cu chuyn c m t trn vi trng thi ca Lin X v cc nc x hi ch ngha ng u trong cc nm 1980 (Bng 2.1). Nhiu h gia nh sut nhiu nm tri bt lc c c ng in thoi. Hay phi xp hng nhiu nm tri c kt ni vo mng, hoc c th c in thoi m khng phi xp hng ch nh mt u i c bit. Nhng ngi c in thoi, th kh s nhiu khi dng, bi v mng b qu ti, thng phi i lu c kt ni. Nu khi gi nh nh nghin cu cng t cng cu hi cho cc lnh o ca hng in thoi nh nc, nh c th hi cc lnh o doanh nghip M: Hng ng c th cung cp dch v in thoi cho nhiu ngi s dng hn (nhiu hn nhiu!), so vi mc ang cung cp by gi? cu tr li chc chn l khng sang sng. Ngi c phng vn chc dn chiu mt cch nhn mnh n hng di ca nhng ngi nng lng ch c c in thoi. Nh th lnh vc in thoi trong h thng thng xuyn trong trng thi d cu.

Bng 2. 1. S ng in thoi c dy trn mt trm dn mt s nc x hi ch ngha v Hoa K, 19801988

Nc Bulgari Ba Lan Hungary Rumani Lin X Hoa K 1980 10,2 5,5 5,8 7,3 7,0 40,8 1984 15,6 6,4 6,6 8,4 9,6 46,8 1988 21,3 7,8 8,2 9,8 12,3 50,8

Ngun: United Nations Statistics Division, (2009).

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Nn kinh t d tha trong mt h thng, v nn kinh t thiu ht trong h thng khc, hot ng nh vy.45

Cc qu trnh bn cung Trong th d lch s kinh t xut hin cc nt c im, m chng c trng mt cch tng qut cho hot ng ca th trng t bn ch ngha. Nhim v ca chng ta by gi l phc ha cc ng nt ca s khi qut ha l thuyt. Nu ni v hot ng th trng, trc mt mi nh kinh t hin ln hnh quen thuc ca sch gio khoa nhp mn: ng gii hn ca mt hng sn xut mt sn phm, ti a ha li nhun, ng cu, ti im ct nhau l gi cn bng v sn lng ti u. Hy ri khi bc tranh ny, m cng cha ni v cc s tru tng ha khc by gi m t vn quyt nh ca doanh nghip trong bc nh tnh chp nhong. Ti mun vt qua gii hn gy nght th nht ca cc m hnh sch gio khoa, tnh cht tnh ca s phn tch. Tt hn chng ta chn cch din t bng li t sang trng hn, nhng tp trung s ch ca chng ta vo ng hc ca th trng. Hy bt u vi cung. S hnh thnh cung l mt qu trnh ng, nhng s thay i xy ra trong nhiu chiu kch. Thay i lin tc l ci a tp, m cc thnh vin ca n l cc n v cho bn cc sn phm hay dch v, cc hng hay cc nh sn xut-bn hng. S tham gia th trng l thng xuyn, gia cc n v trong xy ra cc s hp nht, cc n v chia tch thnh cc phn, v cui cng s ri khi th trng l thng xuyn. Nhn khu hc ca a tp biu hin s thay i mun i.46 La chn c th ca cc sn phm v dch v c cho mi cho nhng ngi mua thay i lin tc. Xt trong thi gian di s la chn tng ln, sn phm tr nn khc bit. Cc sn phm mi xut hin, cc sn phm c bin mt mt cch lin tc. C th thy s thay i khng ngng ca la chn mi nh sn xut-bn hng, v cn d thy hn na, nu chng ta xem xt nhiu hng cng nhau, tng ngnh hay ton b nn kinh t.

Tnh khch quan ca s so snh i hi, rng chng ta lu : s thay i h thng v thi gian trng vi bc nhy cng ngh, vic a in thoi di ng vo s dng. C l khng c bc nhy cng ngh ny, th s thay i h thng cng lm tng nhanh vic m rng mng in thoi, nhng mc ca vic m rng ny khng th xc nh c v mt phn-thc (counter-factually). 46 Xem tiu lun ca Bartelsman v cc cng s (2004), gii thiu chi tit nhn khu hc doanh nghip ca cc nc OECD.

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 Nu kho st cc d liu tng hp, c mc ngnh, c mc v m, chng ta thy s thng ging lin tc ngn v di hn, tm di hn c o bng t l xch lch s ta thy s tng trng bn vng. Trong khi cung thay i mi mi, cng vi n cng ny sinh d tha lin tc, tc l lng sn phm m tng tt c nhng ngi mua khng mua, cng nh nng lc, m tng tt c nhng ngi s dng khng dng n. Bn thn s hnh thnh cc sn phm khng bn ht, tn li trong kho hng v nng lc khng c s dng cng l mt qu trnh ng. V sao sinh ra d tha? V sao xut hin trn din rng cc hin tng d cung? Ti phc ha bn loi ng lc gii thch iu ny. 1. Cnh tranh c tnh c quyn. T cc cng trnh tin phong ca Chamberlin, 1962 [1933] v Robinson, (1969) [1933] l thuyt cnh tranh hn ch (khng hon ho) c cy vo hc thuyt dng ch lu. iu ny cung cp cc l l l thuyt quan trng cho cc lp lun ca ti, bi v n chng minh rng ny sinh nng lc d tha (excess capacity) doanh nghip tham gia th trng cnh tranh c tnh c quyn. T quyt nh ca ring n, khi xc nh sn lng, doanh nghip khng i n gii hn m doanh nghip hot ng trong th trng cnh tranh hon ho i n. ti a ha li nhun ca ring mnh, n t nguyn ch s dng nng lc t hn mc gii hn y.47 Trong cc phn tip theo, ti tp trung s ch vo cc th trng, trong c cu th trng hn ch, khng hon ho c hiu lc, m c th l hnh thi m phn ln ti liu tham kho gi l cnh tranh c tnh c quyn. (Kho hn l tn gi cnh tranh oligopolistic c quyn nhm cng c th thy, nhng thut ng trc ph bin hn.48) Trong cnh tranh c tnh c quyn doanh nghip c th chinh phc ngi mua khi i th cnh tranh khng ch bng cho gi thun li hn, m bng c s quyn r khc khng mang tnh gi c na: bn hng cht lng tt hn, m bo s phc v lch thip hn, c th m nhn s phc v thm (th d ch n tn nh), v vn vn. V ci quan trng nht: a sn phm mi vo nhng s ni ring v chuyn ny ngay sau.49

Bi bo xut sc ca Evsey D. Domar trnh by mt cch sinh ng nt c im ny ca cnh tranh c tnh c quyn, c th l gn vi cng nhm ch m tiu lun ny xem xt: v sao xut hin mt cch c h thng cc hin tng d cung trong nn kinh t t bn ch ngha (Domar, 1989). Ti tm thy nhiu cng trnh trong ti liu tham kho, m c s ging nhau lin quan n mt ny hay mt khc vi dng t duy ca ring ti, v ti c th s dng mt-mt l l ca chng. Th nhng ti ch bit c mt bi duy nht m ti cm thy s ging nhau tinh thn khng ch mt phn m l ton b, v l tiu lun ca Domar. 48 Ti khng bit loi thng k ch ra rng ti mt nc cho trc, trong mt thi k xc nh phn bao nhiu ca tng lu thng sn phm v dch v c tin hnh trn th trng hot ng theo cu trc cnh tranh hon ho. ng hn ch trn c s ca s cm nhn m ti nh bo a ra khng nh rng y l mt t l tng i nh ca lu thng. Hnh thi th trng p o l cnh tranh c tnh c quyn. 49 Trong m hnh ca Weitzman (2000), m ng dng so snh nn kinh t x hi ch ngha v t bn ch ngha, bin s E ng vai tr trung tm, l n lc bn (selling effort). Weitzman ch ra: cnh tranh c tnh

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2. S khng chc chn ca cu. Mt ca hng bn l l th d minh ha. Trong ca hng ngi ta bn mt nhm mt hng xc nh, th d cc dng c in gia dng thng thng, cng nh cc thit b in t, t t lnh n my tnh bn, t TV n cp my in. (y l lnh vc bn l kh quen thuc.) Th d lin quan n bn l v bn sn phm, v ph hp vi iu ny s d tha th hin dng lng sn phm c th trong kho. Ni dung mun ni ca ti tuy vy tng qut hn th. N khng ch l v bn l, m l v mi nh sn xut v nh bn hng. Khng ch v cc sn phm, m c v cc dch v na. Khng ch v sn phm d tr, m c v d tha nng lc c th s dng c ngay hay vi tr rt nh cho vic sn xut hay cung cp dch v na. Quay li vi th d bn l, ngi bn khng bit tnh trc mt cch chnh xc, rng khi no bao nhiu ngi mua n ca hng, v h chnh xc mun mua cc sn phm no. Ngi bn mun, nu xy ra cng him cng tt rng ngi mua tht vng ra v, bi v khng tm thy mt hng cn mua. Hy gi t l nhng ngi mua tha mn nh mua ca mnh trn tng s khch mua tm n ca hng l mc an ton.50 Gi s, rng bit trc nhm cc sn phm m ni chung c th c tnh n trong k hoch mua ca ngi tm n ca hng, th nhng c cu c th v s lng tng hp ca cu l khng chc chn. R rng l, mun vn hnh vic bn hng vi mc an ton cng cao, th phi gi lng d tr cng ln. Nhiu loi m hnh c bit n trong cc ti liu vn tr hc x l bng s vn trn.51 ln hp l ca hng d tr b tc ng bi nhiu nhn t m by gi ti ch nhc n vi trong s . Mc d cu l khng chc chn, ngi bn hng gii vn bit nhiu v c cu d kin ca n, v mc thng ging v cc lch ca n (RameyWest, 1999). Vic b sung hng d tr a phn xy ra khng lin tc, m theo cc t vi liu lng nht nh. Chnh sch d tr hp l hnh thnh vi s hp tc ca cc nh cung cp. Mi ngi mua ra v mt cch tht vng l s tn tht. Nhng hng tn ng qu lu, quay vng chm cng th. Phi tnh to cn nhc trng lng ca hai loi tn tht ny. Tiu lun ca ti khng mun ng gp cho m hnh ha tn kho ca vn tr hc, m cho l thuyt kinh t hc. Nh nhng ngi quan st thc hnh kinh doanh thc s chng ta c
c quyn p cc nh sn xut v cc nh bn hng phi c E cao, ngc li, gi tr k vng ca bin s E trong nn kinh t k hoch ha tp trung l thp. 50 Ty thuc vo tnh cht ca vic tnh ton c th l hp l a ra mc an ton dng khc. Thay cho t l s ngi mua c tha mn/tng s ngi mua, c th quy nh mc an ton l t l tng lng hng ca cc nh mua c tha mn/tng lng ca ton b nh mua. 51 C lng ti liu tham kho rng bn v tnh ton hng d tr v nng lc d phng; ch c nhiu ngnh khoa hc kho st, trc tin l kinh t hc vi m, vn tr hc v khoa hc qun l (xem th d ChopraMeindl, 2003, chng 11 s 12 v Toomey (2000). Cc m hnh ton hc ca nhm ch s dng nhiu loi cng c, trong c l thuyt v cc qu trnh ngu nhin v quy hoch ngu nhin (Prkopa , 1995).

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th ghi nhn, rng chnh sch t hng tip v d tr hng mt ca hiu l khn kho, ca hng khc t kho hn. Nhiu nh sn xut-bn hng khng c chnh sch d tr hng thnh thc, m n gin da vo kinh nghim qu kh, xc nh vic khi no t bao nhiu hng hu nh ch theo linh tnh. Nhng ngay c nh th th khng nh cng vn ng, rng mt trong nhng cng c chnh ca ngi bn hng trong cnh tranh c tnh c quyn gay gt gi v ci thin v th th trng ca mnh l c mc an ton cao tha mn nhu cu khch hng. M c th t iu ny bng cch gi lng hng d tr ln v c c cu thch hp. Mt trong nhng c trng chnh ca nn kinh t d tha l tha mn cu vi mc an ton cao. V thnh tch kinh doanh ring ca mnh nh sn xut-bn hng n lc cho trng thi d cung hnh thnh xt quy m ton th nhng ngi bn hng. Ra khi khu vc thng mi, vi dng t duy tng t chng ta cng c th m t cc vn nng lc d phng v hng tn cc doanh nghip sn xut. Nh m hnh ha vn tr hc hng dn vic hnh thnh chnh sch kinh doanh c th xut pht t mt mc an ton cho trc, v tm ln v c cu thch hp ca hng d tr hay nng lc d phng ph hp vi mc an ton y. Tuy nhin i vi phn tch m t-thc chng b cng t ra cu hi theo hng ngc li. Cho trc cc lng d tr, cc nng lc d phng nh chng l trong thc t. Chng tha mn cu vi mc an ton no? ng tic, cho n nay ngi ta khng tin hnh nhng quan st v tnh ton nh vy, trong h thng c t bn ch ngha, ln x hi ch ngha. Ti tin rng, trong nn kinh t d tha mc ny l cao, cn trong nn kinh t thiu ht th thp.52 3. i mi, s ph hy sng to. Cc lc tc ng theo chiu hnh thnh d tha im 1 cng c hiu lc ngay c khi nu s pht trin k thut tr tr. Th nhng n khng tr tr, m tin b mt cch khng th chn li c!53 Trong cnh tranh hn ch, khng hon ho, c tnh c quyn nh sn xut-bn hng c li th ln, ngi cho ci g mi cho khch hng ca mnh, loi sn phm hay dch v khng tm thy trong cung ca cc i th cnh tranh. iu ny ng trc ht i vi cc nh i mi, nhng ngi u tin a ra mt sn phm mi c tnh cch mng trn phm vi th gii. Nhng khng nh cng c th m rng ra cho nhng ngi i theo bc ca nh i mi tin phong u tin, l ngi i u gia nhng ngi i theo, bt lun nc c i mi cch mng hay nc khc.
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S khc bit c gim i bi thi quen ca ngi mua hng trong nn kinh t thiu ht, tnh ton mt cch tnh to: cc sn phm m mnh mong mun no khng th tm thy trn cc k ca ca hng. Hin tng ny ging mt hin tng c bit k ca th trng lao ng trong ch ngha t bn: ngi lao ng ht can m (discouraged worker), ngi t b vic tm kim vic lm. 53 Bi bo i mi v tnh nng ng ca ti trnh by chi tit ni dung mun ni ca ti lin quan n vn ny v cho mt tng quan v cc ti liu v vn ny (Kornai [2010]). Cc lp lun ca bi bo v ca tiu lun hin thi gn b mt thit vi nhau.

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iu ny tc ng ra sao n d tha xut hin trong nn kinh t? n thun l v, ci g mi xut hin mt ni, v bt u thu ht cu v pha mnh, th ci c vn khng bin mt ngay. Nhiu th kch thch vic li. Trang thit b vt cht v hiu bit chuyn mn ca ngi lao ng mang tnh c th sn phm trong mt phn ca cc xng ch to. i theo s i mi c th cn n u t vn mi, cn o to li lc lng lao ng, hay phi tuyn nhng ngi mi. Nu dt khot khng c kh nng chuyn, th khon u t n nay s b tiu tan, khng ch l trang thit b vt cht, m l tt c s vt v v cng sc tr tu c u t a ra v qung co sn phm cho n nay. Nhiu vn v nhiu cng sc nm trong xng ch to ra sn phm n nay; hon ton c th hiu c, rng cc ch s hu chy theo ng tin ca mnh, cn nhng ngi lao ng th bm vo ni lm vic ca h. Nhiu khi nh nc cng ng gp vo vic gi sng mt cch nhn to cc doanh nghip b tuyn n phi ra i. (Hin tng ny c ti gi l s lm mm rng buc ngn sch mun hn chng ta cn quay li.) Rt cuc nng lc thch hp cho vic to ra cc sn phm hay dch v mi b sung vo nng lc c. Ngay c nu t l gp phn ca nng lc c c gim chm i na, nng lc mi v nng lc c vn cn li cng nhau to ra d tha so vi cu. y l mt trong nhng thnh phn quan trng nht ca c ch to ra trng thi d cung n nh bn vng. Dng nhng li c trch dn nhiu ln ca Schumpeter (2010) [1942]: nhp sng to hnh nh ln hn nhp ph hy. Tuy th, s ti to d tha cng vn c th xy ra ngay c khi khng c s chnh lch nhp ny. Nu ngay t khi khi hnh c d tha, t l xut pht (th d t l nng lc d tha/tng nng lc) vn tn ti ngay c khi tc ca qu trnh sng to v ph hy nh nhau. i vi ti c v hon ton khng chc l, s chuyn dch xy ra theo chiu ngc li, tc l trong thi gian di s ph hy, s chm dt li nhanh hn s sng to. Ti khng thy th d no v cc sn phm c bin mt nhanh hn tc lan rng ca sn phm mi. Ci m ti phc ha trn, cng c th c din t trong cc m hnh l thuyt c hnh thc ha. Qu trnh sng to v ph hy hy vng c th c m t bng cc ch s quan st c v mt thng k. Trong mi trng hp y l v cc phng on m c th c chng minh hay bc b. Ti lu v ci l chung trong cc lc thc y 13: c th l mi quan h gia cnh tranh gia nhng ngi bn v cc hin tng d tha. D tha va l nguyn nhn, va l h qu ca cnh tranh. Trong tnh th th trng, khi m cung tt c mi ni u ging chnh xc vi cu, th ci g buc ngi bn hng phi cnh tranh? y l trng thi ca s yn lng n lnh. S hin din ca d tha lm cho cnh tranh l c th (v ngi mua c th 81

chn la), v cng thc y s ganh ua (v ngi bn mun thot khi s d tha). V ngc li, cnh tranh, s ganh ua lin tc ti to ra d tha. 4. Tnh kinh t theo quy m (economies of scale), tc l cc khon tit kim ny sinh ty thuc vo sn lng. Cc m hnh n gin nht (v c nhi su nht vo u nh kinh t hc khi u) ca kinh t hc vi m gi thit, rng ng-chi ph trung bnh ca hng sn xut c dng ch U. Nu sn lng bn phi im cc tiu, trong min ca cnh i ln ca ng ch U, th chi ph bin tng. V th c mt sn lng, m nhiu hn th doanh nghip khng mun sn xut. Khi quyt nh v sn lng ring, ti im ny khng do tc ng ca gii hn bn ngoi, m v s ti a ha li nhun ring, doanh nghip t nguyn dng li. Tnh hnh l khc trong trng hp ca chi ph bin gim theo sn lng, hay cng c ngha ging vy l trng hp ca li tc tng theo quy m (increasing return to scale). Ci sau l hin tng rt thng xuyn trong cuc sng kinh t tht. N xut hin mi ni, ni t l phn chi ph c nh l ln gia cc chi ph ca n v sn xut, dch v hay thng mi. Sn lng cng ln, chi ph cho mt n v [sn phm] cng nh. Vi vic ny ro cn t nguyn bn trong ca vic tng sn lng b by gi ch cn cc ro cn bn ngoi cn ng bnh trng, trc ht l, khng cn thm cu i vi sn phm c s lng nht nh. Khng phi l li ch ca doanh nghip t nguyn ngng tng sn lng trc khi vp phi gii hn bn ngoi. Hin tng tc ng n s hnh thnh nng lc d tha theo hai loi chiu kch thi gian di hn v ngn hn. Cc doanh nghip ln trong cnh tranh c tnh c quyn m rng nng lc mt cch to bo (hay liu lnh) bng cc khon u t v vic ny c khch l c bit mnh bi suy ngh rng phn xng cng ln, th li tc tng theo quy m s cng c hiu lc. V th trong khi ton b ngnh khn n v cc nng lc khng c s dng, ngi ta to ra cc phn xng khng l mi hn v mi hn. Th d c trng v chuyn ny l cng nghip t, m v n mun hn s cn c ni n. Trong ngn hn a s cc doanh nghip sn xut, ni li tc tng theo quy m c hiu lc, tt nhin khng th t nng lc gii hn, tuy y l thun li nht cho n. Thng gii hn cu ch cho php sn lng nh hn nhiu. Lc nh vy nh quyt nh ng hn cm thy su sc rng y thc s l v d tha nng lc, bi v mi li ch ca anh ta gn vi vic c th sn xut nhiu hn sn lng hin thi v cng c nng lc lm vy. Trong trng hp li tc gim theo quy m nh quyt nh x l tnh th theo cch khc. ng l, cng c

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th sn xut nhiu hn theo ngha k thut-vt l, song nu lm vy, li nhun s gim, v v th c th dng sn lng tng ng vi li nhun ti a m chng c li phn nn no.54 cho vic gii thch c d hiu chng ta ni ring bit tng ci mt trong bn lc thc y. Nhn t quan im ca ch ca chng ta ci chung trong chng l, s ng gp ca chng vo s ti to ca nn kinh t d tha, ca cc hin tng d cung kinh nin. Thng xuyn l, hai, ba hay c th c bn trong s bn loi lc thc y ny cng xut hin, tc ng ln nhau, tng cng ln nhau nh hng n cc qu trnh bn cung, n vic hnh thnh cc hin tng d cung. Khi kho st mt trong bn hin tng trn nhiu tc gi cho rng hm mc tiu ca doanh nghip l ti a ha li nhun. y l gi thit tin li t quan im m hnh ha ton hc, v cc nh kinh t hc dng ch lu truyn tay cho nhau gi thit y. Nhng nghin cu k lng hn v x hi hc v tm l x hi ch ra, rng ti a ha li nhun nh c trng chnh ca ng x doanh nghip khng l m t c hiu lc ph qut. Doanh nghip khng phi l thc th phi nhn cch, khng th nm bt c; cc quyt nh ca n do con ngi a ra. Trong vic ra quyt nh ca doanh nghip ln hin i c vai tr ca cc ch s hu (gia h l cc c ng chnh c ting ni mnh) v cc nh qun l hng u. Cc li ch ca h nhiu khi khng trng nhau, v ph thuc vo tng quan lc lng, li ch no vt ln, hay s tha hip no hnh thnh. Tm thi gian cng l vn : h c t li nhun c th b ti nhanh n u, hay quan tm n cc li ch di hn ca doanh nghip n u. ng lc ca nhng ngi ra quyt nh khng th c gii quyt bng mt t duy nht: li nhun. Kht vng quyn lc, t c uy tn, hnh nh c hnh thnh v h trong cng lun, nh ci thin public image thun li, v trong trng hp ca chng ta c bit quan trng l tnh hiu danh v tnh t c rng h l nhng ngi ng u trong cnh tranh, th phn ca h l ln nht, y l nhng th thc y h, kch thch drive (kht vng) trong h.55 Cc ng lc ny nhiu khi trng nhau, nhng xung t cng c th xy ra gia chng. C bn qu trnh c m t trn hot ng ngay c khi, nu ngi ra quyt nh ca doanh nghip khng ti a ha li nhun, (hay khng ch li nhun), m l mt hay nhiu drive

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Nhiu nh kinh t hc lu mt cch nhn mnh n ngha ln lao ca li tc tng theo sn lng; ti nhn mnh n cng trnh ca Kaldor (1981) v Brian (1994). Li tc tng theo quy m tc ng n nn kinh t theo nhiu cch, gia cc cch ti ch nhc n mt th s thc y hnh thnh nng lc d tha. Cun sch ni ting ca HelpmanKrugman (1985) kho st tc ng ca hin tng li tc tng theo quy m ln phn cng lao ng quc t v ln thng mi gia cc nc. 55 Nhiu cng trnh ca trng phi kinh t hc ng x behavioral economics xem xt ng lc ca s ng x ca cc lnh o doanh nghip. Ngoi ci m nhng nghin cu kinh t hc-tm l hc a ln b mt lin quan n vn ny, cc ti liu ca tm l hc rt phong ph v cc l thuyt ng lc khc nhau (nhiu khi tranh lun vi nhau). Mn hc ca chng ta vn tuyt nhin cha tn dng ht cc kh nng, rng hy tn dng cc kt qu hin i ca tm l hc trong vic ny.

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(kht vng) trong s cc ng lc khc va c nu trn cng c tc ng n anh ta. Khng nht thit l vic tnh ton khi no th li nhun s ti a l ci l lng trc mt nh i mi khi nghip. Tinh thn cnh tranh l thc thc y khng l: anh ta mun l ngi th nht vi vic a s i mi vo. V s thi thc bnh trng cng cc k mnh v mc ch tng quyn lc: Chng ta hy l ln nht, hng mnh nht! Chng ta hy thng tr th trng! Bn cnh cc ng lc khc, kht vng hnh ng v sc sng bn nng, animal spirits c Keynes (1965) [1936], tr. 183184) nhc n v c trch dn nhiu ln, cng thc y (AkerlofShiller, 2009). Trong S thiu ht (1980) ti gi loi ng lc ny l s thc y bnh trng (expansion drive). Tn ti tp hp rt rng ca cc hnh mu ng x ca nhng ngi ra quyt nh trong doanh nghip. mi ngi ra quyt nh, cc hnh mu ng x kt hp vi nhau theo cc t l khc nhau.56 Bn ng lc c m t trn hot ng ngay c khi, nu ngi ra quyt nh trong doanh nghip khng ti a ha li nhun (hay khng ch li nhun), m l mt hay nhiu drive trong s cc lc thc y khc va c nu trn cng c tc ng.

Cc qu trnh bn cu S hnh thnh cu cng l qu trnh ng. Khng ch gi c, v cng khng ch s thch, thu nhp v ca ci ca nhng ngi mua c tc ng n n, m nhiu nhn t khc na, trong s v iu ny l c bit quan trng t quan im ca ti ca chng ta l cung mi lc na. Th d, s xut hin ca cc sn phm mi lm ny sinh cc nhu cu mi, nhiu sn phm c tr nn li thi. Ngc vi ci hn su trong t duy ca nh kinh t hc dng ch lu, khng phi hai ng cong c lp nhau ct nhau u , m l, mt trong cc bin s gii thch chnh ca cu l cung mi lc v ngc li. Cc qu trnh cung v cu nh hng ln nhau. S tng tc ny c th tng tng c ngay c khi, nu cc qu trnh t nhiu din ra ng thi, tng trng vi nhp i th nh nhau. Tuy vy chng ta tm li gii thch, v sao trong nn kinh t d tha cu li b rt li sau cung, v sao li xut hin cc hin tng d cung, trong khi cu v c bn c tha mn. Tiu mc trc gii thiu cc lc thc y cc qu trnh cung hng ln. By gi ti mun lm sng t cc lc kim ch cc qu trnh cu, v cn tr s sng cu.
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Nhm ngi ny hay nhm kia kh c th c c trng bng mt i din trung bnh, bi v khi s khc bit gia cc c nhn to thnh nhm, tc l tnh khng thun nht ca nhm, s b mt. i vi cc nh tm l hc, hay ngay c cc nh vn gii, y l s tht tm thng. Cn nhiu thi gian cho ngh kinh t bt u quan tm nghim tc n hin tng hin nhin ny v hy nhn vi con mt ph phn vo cc m hnh b qua tnh khng thun nht ca cc nhm ra quyt nh. (Xem Kirman, 1992).

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Nhn t quan trng nht l mu thun li ch ca ngi s dng lao ng v ca ngi lao ng. Ch doanh nghip, ngi s dng lao ng c li ch chng li cc n lc tng lng ca ngi lao ng. ng tr thu nhp bin ca lao ng, bi v ngn y vn khp vi tnh ton ca ng ta.57 Nu thnh cng p xung di mc ny (v tht nghip kinh nin c th lm d chuyn ny), th c th tit kim cc khon chi ph sau ny. Nu nhng ngi lao ng bit cch u tranh thc hin cc i hi tng lng ca h, th vic ny c th lm tn hi li nhun. Th nhng cuc chin v lng c din ra th no i na, trong nn kinh t t bn ch ngha li ch i nghch ca nhng ngi s dng lao ng dng ro cn tr mt cch khc nghit s sng lng. V th tu chung gii hn thu nhp ca nhng ngi lao ng l ci rt cuc to ra ro cn cho s bnh trng sn xut. Theo tng sn xut v nng sut trong di hn, thu nhp ca nhng ngi lao ng cng tng ln. Nhng lng b dnh (sticky), khng theo kp mt cch chnh xc s tng sn xut v nng sut. V th m c khuynh hng, rng so vi s bnh trng v bo ca sn xut cu b rt li sau. Hin nhin, rng lp lun ti im ny gn vi lp trng marxist (xem Marx, T bn lun, 1986 [1867], trc ht cc chng 23 v 25). Ti m nhn s ging nhau ny trong khi v nhiu phng din quan trng khc ti tch mnh khi kinh t hc chnh tr marxian.58 Trong ch ngha t bn khng phi chnh sch ti kha hay tin t ca nh nc l ci thc y bnh trng cung, (tuy vic ny c th i cng vi tc ng tng cng hay km hm), m l li ch ni ti ca cc ch s hu v cc nh qun l ca cc doanh nghip. V cng chnh li ch ni ti ny l ci xc nh cc gii hn cho s tng cu. Chng ta tm thy cc ng lc ca s pht sinh d tha mc vi m.59 C ch ny, c lay ng bi s i lp li ch c m t trn, s c hiu lc ht sc khi, nu rng buc ngn sch cng km s tiu hoang ca c h gia nh ln ca doanh nghip li. iu ny xc nh gii hn cho vic tiu hoang ca h gia nh v s ni lng lng. cng-mm ca rng buc ngn sch tc ng mt cch mu thun n s ny sinh d tha. Mt mt: kim ch cung, cn s sng cung, th rng buc ngn sch ca c doanh nghip ln ca h gia nh cn phi cng. Mt khc: nu ngi ta gi sng mt cch nhn to
C th b cng tr nhiu hn th: tr ci gi l lng hiu qu (efficiency wage) cho nhm ngi lao ng c chn lc, m nhng ngi s dng lao ng c bit cn n s thng tho chuyn mn v lng trung thnh ca h. Chng bn v th trng lao ng s quay li hin tng ny. L ni trc y, rng ngay c vi lng hiu qu th ngi s dng lao ng cng chng th lng sng qu xa, v vic khng cn c li cho ng ta. 58 Trong nhiu bi vit ca mnh, trong s l bi bo (2008), ti lp lun chi tit, cc vn no l cc vn m ti chp nhn cch tip cn marxist v trong chng mc no ti p dng cch tip cn marxist trong phn tch cc hin tng no v trong cc ch no ti dt khot i lp vi cc quan im marxian. 59 Nhiu thnh phn tng t c th thy trong dng t duy ca Bhaduri (2007).
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cc doanh nghip khng c kh nng tn ti, tc l rng buc ngn sch l mm, th lm tng d tha nng lc. Khng phi logic ca s m t v s din gii b trt v to ra cc tc ng c chiu ngc nhau, m l hai loi tc ng tri chiu nhau ca mt hin tng hnh thnh trong thc t.

Qu trnh hnh thnh gi Nhng bt cn xng gia cung v cu theo s gio iu tn c in phi c gi c hiu chnh li. Trong trng hp d cung s gim gi phi kch thch s gim cung v s tng cu. S bin ng gi c cng gii quyt mt phn nhim v ny, nhng ch mt phn, m c th l gia khng ch cc li ngu nhin, m l gia cc mo m c tnh h thng. S tnh gi l mt qu trnh ng. Khng th coi l s tip cn qua nhiu bc, nhng d sao vn c cho l lin tc, n gi cn bng, nh cc l thuyt-ttonnement (m mm) walrasian m t. Ngay sau khi gi n im cn bng, th c cung, c cu thay i, bi v nh ti va th cho thy bn thn cung v cu cng thay i lin tc. Khng c s hi t n mt im mc tiu, v im mc tiu lin tc chuyn ng. By gi l khng nh c chp nhn ph bin, rng trn th trng t bn ch ngha cc gi l gi dnh (sticky prices). V im ny cc nh kinh t hc dng ch lu c hc thc hn (Mankiw,1985, Blinder v cc cng s, 1998) v mt s trng phi heterodox (phi chnh thng), th d cc nh hu keynesian (Lee,1998), t nhiu ng vi nhau. Ngi ta gii thch tnh dnh ca gi bng nhiu loi nguyn nhn: s cm nhn v s thay i cc mi quan h cung-cu b chm tr hay doanh nghip dy da n trnh cc chi ph thm ca vic tnh li gi (cc chi ph thc n). Trn th trng cnh tranh c tnh c quyn ngi bn xc nh gi, cn ngi mua chp nhn hay i tm ngi bn khc.60 Tnh dnh ca gi l bt i xng; c bit cng theo chiu xung. Ngay c nu d tha c th cm nhn c i na, ngi bn lo lng gi li nhun ca mnh v kh quyt nh gim gi lu di.61 Ton b cc doanh nghip (v cng vi chng l s iu hnh chnh sch tin t) kinh hi s gim pht, tc hi hy hoi kinh t v m ca n. Ti c bit mun nhn mnh s bt i xng ca tnh dnh ca gi c, bi v y l

Scitovsky Tibor a ra s phn bit ngi xc nh gi v ngi chp nhn gi (price-maker v price-taker) (xem Scitovsky [1985]). ng nhn mnh rng, trong cnh tranh c tnh c quyn ngi bn xc nh gi, v ch ra nhiu loi tc ng ca vic ny gia nhng th khc l s ny sinh nng lc khng c s dng v s phng ln ca cc hng d tr. 61 ng hn ngi ta th vi cc hot ng h gi tm thi, cc t bn x hng, nu s s tch t hng tn vn cha bn ht n lc .

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mt trong nhng li gii thch chnh ca chuyn tnh trng chung ca nn kinh t th trng t bn ch ngha l bt i xng: s p o ca cc hin tng d cung hng ln pha trn. Trong s chuyn ng cng nhau ca cungcugi, gi c khng lm cho trng thi d cung chm dt, m li ti to ra n, s thng ging ca gi vn li trong di ca t l cung/cu, m c trng cho nn kinh t d tha.

2.3. Th trng ca cc sn phm v dch v: kho tng khi nim v phng php o lng
By gi ti mun thc hin li ha ca mnh c a ra u tiu lun: ti bt u gii thiu b my khi nim v kho st s quan st cc hin tng v cc phng php o lng chng trong mi lin h mt thit vi vic ny. Thc ra cung v cu l ci g? Khng hi, nu bn c, ngi n lc ny khng h do d chp nhn cc thut ng ny, by gi hi lng l.62 Nhiu ln xut hin trong tiu lun t d [tha], nhng ti vn cn n cu tr li dt khot v sc bn: d so vi ci g? d cung d so vi ci g?

Cc trng hp thun khit d x l 1. Doanh nghip dch v trong trng thi d cung. Nh th nghim tng tng chng ta hy lm mt phng vn ring vi mt doanh nghip dch v, th d vi gim c mt khch sn.63 y l khch sn hot ng trong nn kinh t d tha. Trong ngnh khch sn ch s quen thuc l h s s dng (occupancy rate) v ch s b ca n, l h s phng cn trng (vacancy rate). C hai thng c tnh bng phn trm. Hy hi gim c: ng c kh nng v mun t h s s dng bao nhiu trong tun ti? Chng ta gn thm vo cu hi cc iu kin v cc li gii thch sau y. Cc gi, m khch sn xc nh, l gi c sn cho tun sau.

Trong cun Anti-equilibrium ca mnh (1970) ti th lm r, ci g n nu ng sau cc thut ng c chp nhn v c dng ph bin ny, v ti ch ra nh ngha ca chng mp m n th no. Nhng nghin ngm ca ti khng c ting vang ln. Sau bn mi nm, ti lc li ci ti vit khi . By gi ti vn thy nhng lo ngi v cc kin phn i ca ti c l do chnh ng. Vi vic s dng lng kin thc c c t thi ti th trnh by li c cc nhn xt ph phn ca ti, v c cc kin ngh ca ti v thut ng v phng php lun. Bit u by gi ti thnh cng hn vi chng. 63 V bn cung, ti lun ni v cc doanh nghip. Cc lp lun ca ti cng c hiu lc i vi cc trng hp, m mt c nhn sn xut, cung cp dch v hay mt thng gia cho bn sn phm hay dch v ca mnh.

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 Cu hi ca chng ta lin quan n khong thi gian rt ngn, n tun sau. Kh nng thc hin ca khch sn trong ngn hn l cho trc: rt cuc gii hn trn l s phng sn c. Nu chng ta ch a gii hn vt l ny vo tnh ton, th bng vic ny chng ta a ra nng lc l thuyt. Th nhng c th thy trc, rng thng pht sinh cc nhn t cn tr khc nhau (th d cng vic bo tr thng thng lin tc hay cc hon cnh k thut-t chc khc khin cho vi phng khng th cho khch c). Lu n nhng iu ny, gim c s xc nh h s s dng ti a l bao nhiu. Ngi ta thng gi h s ny l nng lc thc t.64 Trong cc phn tip theo (khng ch trong th d minh ha ny, m c trong cc lp lun mun hn ca tiu lun) vic tn dng ton b nng lc thc t c chng ta coi l s tn dng 100%.65 Ngi tr li ch c th cho con s khp vi nng lc thc t c c lng mt cch tnh to. Chng ta khng mun bit cc gic m ho huyn ca ng ta, m mun bit mong mun cung cp dch v c th thc hin c mt cch thc t ca ng ta. Chng ta khng yu cu ng ta cho mt d bo v cng sut d kin. ng ta cng ng bn tm khi tr li, rng c th tnh n bao nhiu khch. Hy gi s rng mi ngy trong tun, mi gi trong ngy xut hin khch hng yu cu phng . Ni cch khc ng ta hy suy ngh k: nu ch ph thuc vo h, tc l ch ph thuc vo khch sn, th h vui lng mun nhn bao nhiu khch, vui lng nht thy h s s dng phng l bao nhiu. S l l, nu ng ta tr li: ti mun, nu khch sn y, tc l ti vui lng mun i n gii hn nng lc thc t. Nh th trong th d ca chng ta, y l h s s dng 90 phn trm. Sau khi tun l qua i, c th xc nh h s s dng tht l bao nhiu. Gi s rng, trung bnh tun l 75 phn trm [ca con s ng gim c ni tun trc]. S chnh lch, tc l 25 im phn trm, cho mt cch rch ri ln bng s ca d cung. Hy tng tng, rng c cu hi ban u (ex ante), c c lng tht sau (ex post) c tin hnh tt c cc khch sn trong thnh ph, v khng c ngoi l tt c cc khch
Ngn hng trung ng Hoa K (Fed) cng b u n cc ch s mc s dng nng lc. Ti trch nh ngha ca h. Mc s dng nng lc l t s ca sn lng u ra thc v sn lng ti a c th duy tr c (sustainable) ca u ra, tc l t l ca nng lc... Cc ch s nng lc c xc nh sao cho chng th hin khi nim nng lc thc t. Ci ny phi c gii ngha nh sau: l sn lng ln nht ca sn xut, m tt c cc hng ca mt ngnh cho trc c kh nng duy tr bn trong khung kh ca mt thi biu vn hnh thc t, tnh c thi gian cht (v dng) bnh thng, v vi iu kin rng c sn cc u vo cn thit cho vic vn hnh cc my mc v trang thit b c ti hin trng. Ni chung khi nim ph hp vi im y u vo ca mt hm sn xut, vi iu kin rng nng lc i din cho mc sn xut ti a c th duy tr c mt cch thc t, ch khng phi mt mc ti a ngn hn no ln hn, nhng khng duy tr c. Pht biu bng cch dng t ca ti: khi xc nh nng lc thc t cc nh thng k ca Fed gi thit rng sn xut khng vp phi ro cn u vo (Federal Reserve, 2009). 65 Tuy mc s dng thc thng nh hn 100 %, cng c th tng mc s dng trn 100 %. Trong th d ca chng ta: nhiu khch n mc ban lnh o khch sn tr hon vic bo dng thng xuyn. Cc t latin ex ante ch ci trc khi s vic xy ra, cn ex post l sau khi s vic xy ra.
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sn u xut hin d cung! Bng cch ny sau chng ta c bc tranh chnh xc v cc mi quan h cung v cu ca th trng thnh phn ny. Tng cng tr li ex ante ca cc gim c khch sn bng cung ca tun , v tng cc con s thc ex post bng cu ca tun . Chng ta chng cn hi nhu cu ca cc khch hng, bi v khi mi im bn hng th trng lun trong trng thi d cung, sn lng cc giao dch thc (s lng bn v mua) bng vi cu. Chng ta gi ci ny l quy tc bn ngn. Trong trng hp d cung, th cu l bn ngn, cung l bn di, cn trong trng hp d cu th cung l bn ngn, cu l bn di. Sn lng ca cc giao dch thc lun lun trng vi bn ngn hn. T quy tc ny rt ra cc kt lun quan trng lin quan n phng php quan st v o lng. T cc thng k mua-bn thc chng ta ch c th rt ra kt lun v ln ca bn ngn hn. Chng ta phi c lng ln ca bn di hn bng cc phng php khc. Trong th d tng tng trn chng ta chn phng php n gin nht c lng bng s bn di hn: chng ta hi nhng ngi c thm quyn v s sn lng bn ca h. Nu gi nh chng ta gi thit, rng h vui lng cho thu tt c cc phng ca h, th chng ta c th b sung cho vic hi bng cch c lng trc nng lc thc th ca h. Quay li cu hi c nu ra u chng: ni v d tha chng ta mun bit, d so vi ci g? Trong th d trn chng ta nhn c cu tr li r rng: cung nhiu hn giao dch thc, v ci sau trng vi cu. 2. Doanh nghip thng mi bn cc sn phm c th xp kho trong trng thi d cung.66 Tuy hot ng thng mi cng c cc gii hn nng lc ca n (kh nng cha ca ca hng, kh nng hon thnh ca i ng nhn vin vn vn), gii hn cn bn ca cung l hng d tr sn c. Nu chng ta mun xc nh cung khng phi ca mt thi im tnh, m ca mt giai on ngn (chng hn mt tun), tng t nh cch chng ta lm vi doanh nghip dch v trn, khi cn hi lnh o doanh nghip thng mi: c th bn bao nhiu v sn sng bn bao nhiu cho cc khch hng vi gi ang c hiu lc, tnh c hng d tr ban u v hng b sung n trong tun? C th gi thit, rng thng gia vui lng bn ton b s lng.67 Chng ta coi s lng ny kh nng v mong mun ca ngi bn l cung ca thng gia. cho th nghim tng tng em li kt qu thun khit, cn t thm hai iu kin.
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67

Doanh nghip thng mi c th lm mi gii dch v. Ti khng kho st loi c bit ny. C l cm thy l thi qu, nu cui tun ca hng tr nn hon ton trng rng, ng nh ca hng Ba Lan c nhc ti u tiu lun, v n s lm kinh s cc khch hng khi khc cng n y. Th nhng mi nguy him ny thng khng e da trong nn kinh t th trng, v v th chng ta c th bnh tnh b qua.

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Hng b sung c t trc khi phng vn. Chng ta ni cho ngi c phng vn: hy gi s rng trong vng tun ti khng th iu chnh theo tnh hnh tc thi bng sa i vic t hng, tc l chng ta nht quyt v s din gii ngn hn ex ante ca vn . iu kin khc lin quan n bn thn chng ta, nhng ngi tho ra th nghim tng tng. Chng ta gi s, rng ht tun cn hng tn kha s ca mi sn phm. Chng sn phm no c bn ht hon ton. Ni cch khc: v mi mt hng cu l bn ngn hn. Nu hai iu kin ny tha mn, th vo cui tun c th xc nh mt cch chnh xc, d cung l bao nhiu, bi v n khng khc vi hng tn kha s. T s ng nht cn i rt ra kt qu: Cung Cu = hng tn m s ban u cng hng b sung = bn-mua tht (y l bn ngn hn)

D cung = hng tn kha s Hng tn kha s l s lng, m ngi bn ex ante mun bn, nhng ex post chng ta xc nh, rng mong mun ca anh ta khng c thc hin. 3. Doanh nghip ch to sn phm trong tnh trng d cung. Chng ta li phng vn. i tng ca th nghim tng tng ca chng ta l gim c, ln ny mt doanh nghip ch to (th d trong mt nh my t), ni sn xut ra cc sn phm c th s m c v mt vt l, c th ct kho. Chng ta bit, rng phng vn din ra trong tnh trng d cung. t hin nhin hn hai trng hp trc, rng chng ta din t cu hi th no, nu chng ta mun bit cung ca doanh nghip. Ging hai cuc phng vn trc u tin chng ta t cu hi thc s theo din gii ngn hn, lin quan n tun ti. Trong trng hp ny chng ta khin ng ta ln ting nh ngi bn hng (gim c c th gi th trng bn hng n tr li). K t y, cu hi, cc iu kin v cc rng buc trng vi tt c ci, chng ta ni vi dng trn lin quan n doanh nghip thng mi. Nh my t t c th v thch bn ngn y xe ang sn bi u ring ca n, v cng vo l s xe s ln bnh ra khi cng xng sn xut trong tun ti. (By gi khng th tc ng n nhp a ra sn phm cui cng na.) y nh th l cung bn hng ca tun ti. D cung (tc l lng khng th bn c) bng vi hng tn kha s. Cn cu hi v cc iu gi s hon ton khc, nu chng ta i gim c ln ting vi t cch ngi ch huy sn xut. Trong trng hp cc sn phm phc tp, th d nh xe hi, th

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khng hp l v cng khng quen thuc nh gi mt tun l ngn hn. Hy hi v cc nh cho qu ti. Phn ny ca phng vn (v vi n l s din gii v h thng iu kin ca cc khi nim c dng y) s ging trng hp 1, cuc phng vn c tin hnh doanh nghip dch v. Chng ta lu ngi c phng vn: hy gi s rng s c n t hng. Nu ch ph thuc vo ng, th ng s mun sn xut bao nhiu? Cu tr li s l, trong trng hp ny ng mong n cng gn nng lc thc t cng tt. Chng ta c th tnh n cu tr li ny c bit khi, nu hin tng li tc khng i theo sn lng (constant return to scale) cng vn c hiu lc trong sn xut ngay c gn nng lc thc t. Thm ch cu tr li nh th cn dt khot hn, nu li tc tng theo quy m (increasing return to scale) c hiu lc trong sn xut. (Trong nh my t, tnh hnh chc l trng hp sau.) Dng t duy tip theo ging nh lp lun cho trng hp doanh nghip dch v. Nu sn xut t hn nng lc thc t, bi v khng c n hng, hay khng th tnh n chuyn sm mun tnh hnh c ci thin, th gia chng ngi ta h cc ch tiu ca cc xng sn xut, khng thnh cng tn dng hon ton nng lc sn xut thc t. Ex post chng ta coi nng lc khng c s dng l d cung. Chng ta lu , rng doanh nghip sn xut c hai loi d cung: bt chp mong mun bn vn cn hng tn khng bn c, v bt chp mong mun sn xut vn cn nng lc cha c s dng. C hai u l cc xe t nhng hai con s c xc nh r khng th cng li vi nhau. D cung trc gm cc xe c th nhn thy trn bi xe, c th s m c, cn loi d cung sau ch tn ti trong tr tng tng: s m t nh lng ca mt mong mun sn xut khng c thc hin. C tn kho sn phm c sn ngay lp tc, ln nng lc khng c s dng biu hin s d tha tim nng, thc ra u m t s d cung, t cc gc nhn khc nhau. Tuy nhin chc chn l, tng ca hai s liu khng th gii ngha c. Mc d lm r khi nim ti din t cc cu hi ca cc cuc phng vn tng tng, may l c nhiu c lng thc t, m vic nu vn ca chng kh gn nhng iu c m t y. Bng 2.2 cng b so snh quc t v cc d liu mc s dng nng lc cng nghip ca nhiu nc. Cc nh nghin cu phn tch d liu ca 34 nc trn c s cc chui s theo thi gian di ca thi k t 1978 n 2008. Trong bng ca chng ta c 13 nc, m c sn hn mt trm quan st lin quan. Trong bng l trung bnh ca chui s lin quan n tng nc.

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Bng 2.2 So snh quc t v t l s dng nng lc, 19782008 Nc B Hoa K Php H Lan Nht Bn c Na Uy Canada Italia B o Nha Ty Ban Nha Thy S New-Zland Gi tr trung bnh 79,0 80,4 84,4 82,5 79,0 83,6 82,4 81,3 75,7 78,9 79,8 83,8 89,2 S quan st 121 145 130 147 153 154 138 152 154 126 154 154 153 tn mn 2,89 3,91 2,02 2,58 8,11 3,51 2,70 4,11 2,70 2,49 3,03 3,33 2,13

Ngun: EtterGraffMller, 2008, tr. 8. Ghi ch: Cc s liu cho mc s dng nng lc ca ngnh ch tc. Ct lin quan n s cc quan st c ngha l, h x l d liu lin quan n bao nhiu qu ca tng nc.

Hnh 2.2 minh ha chui s theo thi gian ca mc s dng nng lc ca Hoa K. Cc tc gi ca bo co nhn mnh, rng nng lc, m h i chiu mc s dng thc vi, phn nh mc sn xut c th duy tr c trong di hn, tc l nng lc thc t (xem c Corrado Mattey (1997). Nh mt minh ha na, hnh 2.3 gii thiu chui s liu mc s dng theo thi gian ca Php.

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Hnh 2.2. T l mc s dng nng lc trong cng nghip Hoa K, 19652010 (phn trm ca nng lc)

Ngun: Federal Reserve Statistical Release (2010). Ch thch: Cc vch xm thng ng tng trng cho cc thi k suy thoi. Ngi ta nh du cc di suy thoi theo nh ngha ca National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Hnh 2.3. T l mc s dng nng lc trong cng nghip Php, 19652005 (phn trm)

Ngun: AllainCanry (2008). Cc tc gi, Olivier Allain v Nicolas Canry cung cp cho ti t liu lm c s cho cc s ca hnh ny; ti cm n s gip ca h.

Bng v cc hnh u gi mt cch thng nht nhng gii ngha sau y. T l s dng nng lc l khc nhau mi nc. Trong khi t l hng nm thng ging, nhng khng nc no v khng thi im no t n 90 phn trm. iu ny cng c 93

khng nh, rng trong nn kinh t t bn ch ngha mi ni mi lc c nng lc ng k khng c s dng; y l hin tng kinh nin. Bng 2.2 v cc hnh 2.22.3 phn nh mc s dng nng lc cng nghip. Cc o lng tng t cng c tin hnh v mc s dng nh . Cho cc mc ch ca tiu lun ny chng ta c th cng s liu v nh bn hay nh cho thu ca cc cn h thuc s hu ring v cc cn h cho thu: s ny c th coi l nng lc khng c s dng ca khu vc nh . T hnh 2.4 c th thy mt cch r rng, rng t l chung Hoa K chng bao gi rt xung di 8 phn trm trong bt c nm no, cn trong nm 2004 th l trn 12 phn trm. iu ny th l t l d cung ng k.

Hnh 2.4 T l chung ca cc cn h bn () v cho thu (xanh) Hoa K, 19942007 (phn trm)

Ngun: U. S. Census Bureau (2010).

94

Kh khn th nht s hiu chnh vi nhau lin tc ca cung v cu Trong ba trng hp thun khit c tho lun trn thnh cng nh ngha mt cch rch ri khi nim d cung, v a ra cch o lng. Nhng vi cc s tru tng ha khc nhau ti ch lm cho cng vic ca mnh c d dng chng ta c th i n s lm quen ln u vi vic o lng, n cc nh ngha rch ri v cc phng php o. Tuy vy, by gi ti mun i mt, v mun bn c i mt vi thc t, vi cc hin tng ca i sng kinh t thc, m chng lch khi th gii c n gin ha v l tng ha ca ba trng hp m u. Ti khng ngh v chuyn, rng nhng ngi quan st cc hin tng, cc nh thng k tin hnh o lng c th phm cc sai lm cc li ny ch to ra nhng s khng chnh xc ngu nhin. Vn l, trong nhiu trng hp l khng th p dng cc nh ngha v cc phng php o lng minh bch k trn do s khch quan ny sinh t tnh hnh. Ti ng n vn kh khn u tin trong chng 2.2 m t qu trnh cu. By gi chng ta nghin cu ng thi bn cung v bn cu t gc nhn o lng. S hnh thnh c cung, ln c cu mi ngi bn v mi ngi mua l qu trnh ng. Thin hng bn ca nh sn xut-bn hng thay i lin tc, iu chnh lin tc vi tnh hnh tc th, tin hnh cc thch ng bt buc. [Cung ti] Thi im no ca s chn mui ca nh l cung tht? Cc vin nghin cu hot ng kinh doanh thng xuyn t ra cu hi cho lnh o cc doanh nghip sn xut: cc ng c nh sn xut, cng nh bn bao nhiu? Sau h i snh nh vi mc sn xut, cng nh bn, thc t. S tht c th lch vi nh theo c hai chiu.68 Vn l, khi c hi th lnh o doanh nghip giai on no ca s hnh thnh nh? Thng tin thu thp c v cu tc ng ra sao n vic hnh thnh cung? Nh lnh ng cng gn ti on cui ca s thch ng bt buc ln nhau ca cung v cu, th nh v s thc hin cng gn trng nhau hn. Cng c th ni nh th v nh mua ca ngi mua. [Cu ti] Thi im no l cu tht? Khi bt u i mua hng? Hay khi bc vo ca hng, m khng tm thy mt hng nh tm, v thay vo mua ni khc? Hay vi pht mun hn, khi mua th khc ca hiu th hai hay th ba? Chng ta c th theo st qu trnh tng ngi bn, tng ngi mua. Nhng nu chng ta mun cng cc nh v mun bn ca nhiu ngi bn hng v hay cc nh v mun

68

Xem th d, cc o lng Business Tendency Survey (OECD, 2003) c p dng rng ri.

95

mua ca ngi mua ti mt thi im cho trc hay lin quan n mt khong thi gian ngn, th chng ta cng cc phn t c cht lng khng thun nht.69 V th s gii ngha s tng hp l khng r rng (v khng c cc cu hi ring th khng th lm r). Nh mt minh ha hy tr li ngnh khch sn. Nu trong thnh ph c 20 khch v trong 10 khch tm ch bn sao v 10 ngi tm phng hai sao v mi ngi tm c ci mnh mun, th tt c mi ngi u hi lng. Nhng nu gi nh c hai mi ngi u mun khch sn bn sao, nhng ch mi ngi c ch, cn mi ngi buc phi khch sn hai sao, th mi ngi hi lng, v mi ngi tht vng trong khi thng k thc v cng sut ca cc khch sn cng b s liu ging nhau trong c hai trng hp. Th m v th ny hay th khc, mi ngi u c phng theo quy tc bn ngn hn chng ta c th nh gi s liu chim phng c tng hp tht l cu ca cc khch hng. Vic tng hp c th che m s tha mn na vi ca cc khch tr na phn tht vng.

Kh khn th hai cc hin tng d cung v d cu bn cnh nhau Trong cc th nghim tng tng c m t u chng ny ti lm nh bt cng vic ring ca mnh bng cch gi thit: bn cu l bn ngn hn trong mi giao dch, tc l ti loi tr kh nng d cu. Ch n quy tc bn ngn hn trong trng hp nh vy r rng l, s thng k thc m t giao dch hon thnh phn nh ci g: n phn nh cu, bi v chng ta i mt vi th trng d cung rnh trnh. Th nhng trong thc t chng ta khng th chc chn v iu ny. C th l, cc hin tng d cung v d cu ring r xut hin cnh nhau. C t khch trong mt s khch sn, trong khi cc khch du lch li khng tm c khch sn, m h vui lng sssss. Mi ngy cui cng cng hnh thnh s dn xp no . Gi s, rng mi ngy c thng k bao trm ton thnh ph v tng cng sut ca cc khch sn. Nu ch xem bo co ny, chng ta khng bit n phn nh cung hay cu. Cc hin tng d cung v d cu khng ch tn ti n gin bn cnh nhau, m c s tng tc gia chng. Ngi bn hng, m c d cung, v khng th bn c sn phm ca mnh, c th khng c tin tha mn cc nh mua ban u ca mnh vi t cch ngi mua. By gi s gim cu ca ngi gy ra d cung mt ngi bn hng
Sm hn ti nhc n vn ca tnh khng thun nht ri: ny sinh cc kh khn nh th no khi, nu chng ta mun m t ng x ca mt nhm bng ng x ca mt ngi i din trung bnh. Khi tnh ton cu v cung s khng thun nht gy ra cc kh khn c bit ln. Nu cu c tnh bng mt n v chung l tin, th cu ca 10 khch mun c khch sn bn sao v 10 mun khch sn hai sao s khc xa (nh hn) cu ca 20 khch u mun khch sn bn sao v s vnh gia cu v cung c ch ra ngay lp tc (NQA), nh th quy tc bn ngn cha chc c hiu lc.
69

96

khc v vn vn (Clower, 1965, 1967, Leijonhufvud, 1968). Cc hin tng d cung lan truyn tip, xut hin tc ng s nhn. Tht tt nu trong mi thng k lin quan cc hin tng d cu v d cung mc vi m c ghi chp tch bch nhau. Khi chng ta c th a ra cc tuyn b quan trng v phn b ca chng, chng ta c th xc nh cc c trng ngu nhin ca cc hin tng vi m.

R ng tt s quan st cc ro cn sn xut v cc gii hn mc vi m ca sn xut Trong tiu mc trc ti vt ln vi vn v cc hin tng d cung v d cu tn ti cnh nhau. S o lng quc t thng xuyn c gii thiu di y s c th gip nhiu cho s hiu v quan st hin tng chng ta ch cn ch din gii ng phng php kho st. Mng li quc t ca 26 vin nghin cu hot ng kinh doanh trong 26 nc u chu t nhiu chc nm qua hng qu t cc cu hi di y cho cc lnh o doanh nghip c chn mu t s ng cc doanh nghip cng nghip:70 Cc nhn t chnh no hin nay ang gii hn s sn xut ca cc ng: khng c nhn t nh vy, thiu nhn cng, thiu vt liu v/hay trang thit b, cc hn ch v tin bc, cc nhn t khc. (Xin vui lng nu chi tit!) Nh th d minh ha ti cng b chui thi gian Hungary (xem hnh 2.5. v bng F1. ca Ph lc). Trc khi chng ta rt ra cc kt lun t chui thi gian theo quan im ca tiu lun ca ti, mt ln na chng ta cn suy ngh k, rng thc ra cc nh nghin cu hot ng kinh doanh hi ci g t cc lnh o doanh nghip. Hy so snh vi vic hi o c trnh by trong im 3 y tiu mc 3.1. chng ta t cc cu hi khc khc mt cch cn bn! cho cc lnh o doanh nghip. By gi cc nh nghin cu hot ng kinh doanh 26 nc khng hi, rng lnh o doanh nghip ex ante ngh g v sn xut sp ti? Thch sn xut bao nhiu sn lng, nu c cu tnh n cc rc ri quen thuc ca s sn xut pha u vo? Ni cch khc, by gi cu hi khng lin quan n cung, n ln ex ante. V h cng chng nu ra cu hi: nu doanh nghip sn xut c kh nng sn xut, chng hn 500 n v, v v pha u vo c kh nng thc t nh vy, khi v phn ng cng vui

70

V phng php lun o lng xem OECD [2002] v Nilsson [2001].

97

lng sn xut 500 n v ny? Ni cch khc: h khng hi, rng cung khng ph thuc vo cu s l bao nhiu. Hnh 2.5

Ngun: Cng b trc tip ca Vin nghin cu hot ng kinh doanh v Th trng (Konjunktra v Piackutat Intzet). Cc s liu lm c s cho s liu trn hnh c th thy trong bng F1 ca Ph lc. Ch thch: Trong qu trnh o nhng ngi c hi tr li, rng cc nhn t khc nhau c cn tr sn xut hay khng. Trong cu tr li h c th nhc n nhiu nhn t cn tr. d theo di trn hnh ch trnh by mt s chui thi gian, tc l khng minh ha tt c cc ct ca bng. Trn trc tung l ln ca tn sut tng i ca cc nhn t tnh bng phn trm. Lin quan n ng cong chng ta lu : ng ny minh ha hp nht nhiu ct. S din gii da trn logic sau y. Chng ta xc nh lin quan n mi thi k o, rng trong s 5 bin s [ct] lin quan n thiu nguyn liu v linh kin [4 ct] v thiu nng lc [1 ct] th bin s no c gi tr ln nht, tc l c tn sut tng i ln nht. Ni cch khc: s ln nht cho t l thnh phn ca s ng nhng ngi c hi, nhng ngi nhc n t nht mt trong s 5 loi nhn t cn tr ny. ng minh ha chui thi gian ny bng cc con s.

98

Thay vo y vic t cu hi ca cc nh nghin cu hot ng kinh doanh ngm gi nh: ngi ch o sn xut chc chn ch mt cch tnh to khi hnh thnh ch tiu sn xut, rng c th tnh n nhiu loi cn tr, v th a ra kt hoch thc t, c th thc hin c. y nh th l bc nh chp nhong c chp trong trng thi kh tin trin ca qu trnh cung (trn c s dng t duy c trnh by trong tiu lun ca ti). V by gi chnh gia qu trnh hnh thnh cung c tin trin ny ngi ta hi, rng cc nhn t no thng cn tr vic sn xut. Tc l: Nu ng thy trc k nhng din tin c th ch i th ng thng tnh n cc tr ngi no? Cu hi c ngha v ng tham kho, cc cu tr li c ngha v ng rt ra bi hc.71 Tuy nhin chng khng cho cu tr li, rng cung ban u i n nng lc thc t s vp phi cc gii hn cu no mc vi m. V th n khng to ra kh nng, rng t cc d liu o lng chng ta c th kt lun mt cch trc tip v ln ca d cung hay d cu mc vi m. V th cng chng, v cng khng th, cho cu tr li trc tip cho cu hi trung tm ca tiu lun ca ti (nn kinh t d tha? nn kinh t thiu ht?). Chng h ph thuc vo iu ny vi s thn trng cn thit ti vn c th nhn c s nh hng gin tip t cc chui thi gian ny cho cc cu hi nghin cu ca ring ca ti. Hy ch trong chui thi gian Hungary, t l cc cu tr li nhc n s rc ri u vo v s thiu cu bin i ra sao vi thi gian. Di xm dc trn hnh 2.5. biu th thi k chuyn i h thng. Chui thi gian minh ha mt cch d hiu, rng trong nn kinh t thiu ht ca ch ngha x hi cho n khi thay i ch , n lc ca doanh nghip theo hng tng sn xut v duy tr lin tc sn xut ch yu vp phi cc ro cn bn ngun lc: thiu nhn lc v nht l thiu sc lao ng c tay ngh, ngoi ra thiu nguyn liu v linh kin l kh khn thng xuyn nht. Hai phn ba s ngi c hi nu t nht mt trong cc mi lo ngi xut hin bn u vo. ng, thiu cu cng khng him, nhng loi cn tr ny trc 1989 khng t mt phn ba ca s c nhc n. Sau khi thay i ch t l ngy cng quay ngc li. Tm sut ca vic nhc n cc cn tr bn cu trong cc nm 2000 khong hai phn ba cc cu tr li, cn vic nhc n thiu nguyn liu v linh kin th tr nn rt him.72

71

Vic o lng 26 nc khng c tin hnh cho mc ch tr li cho ln v phn b ca cc hin tng d cung v d cu, m cung cp cc im ta cho vic bo hiu trc ca nhng s thng ging. Cho mc ch sau n hon ton ph hp. 72 ng ch l, s thiu sc lao ng c tay ngh cng gy lo ngi ngay c trong nn kinh t chuyn sang mang tnh t bn ch ngha na.

99

Kh khn th ba s tch bch ca hng d tr cn thit v tha thi Ti quay li tuyn chnh ca dng t duy ca ti, s tng kt cc kh khn ca vic to khi nim v s o lng. u chng 2.3, chng ta coi hng tn kha s khng bn c l d cung trong cc trng hp thun khit. Bn c c l khng ch n n, nhng ngha v ca ti lu , rng y l chuyn c vn . Trong trng hp cu dng (stacionary) v vic cp hng b sung dng th r rng: nu v sn phm no sut thi k di hn m s hng tn khng bn c tng ln, th c d cung v sn phm . Th nhng tiu lun nhn mnh trc y, rng cu khng dng, m thay i lin tc, di s tc ng khng phi cui cng ca nhng thay i v cung. Vic to d tr c d nh lm d cho vic thch nghi ln nhau ca cung v cu. Nh th khi no chng ta c th ni v mt l d tr l qu ln, tc l s hin thn ca d cung? Trc khi ti phn ng vi cu hi, ti nhc bn c nh li mc an ton c nu ra chng trc, m trong cc lp lun tip theo chng ta k hiu l B. Chng ta c th ni th d cc iu sau: d tr l khng qu ln, nu c kch thc ng cn, nu 90 phn trm khch hng tm c mt hng cn tm, v ch 10 phn trm phi thc hin vic thay th bt buc, hay ri khi ca hng m chng mua c g (B = 0,9). Th nhng hng tn l ln mt cch tha thi (tc l hin thn ca s d cung), nu n lm cho c th, rng phn khch hng tht vng khng phi l 10 phn trm, m ch l 9 phn trm (B = 0,91). Nhng s xut pht ny, phi ni thc, l hon ton ty tin. V sao B li chnh xc l 0,9? V sao li khng th l 0,85 hay 0,96? Mc an ton B khng c xc nh, m nht thit l khng xc nh din t di dng b ng: bng cch no n c xc nh di tc ng ca cc lc thc y t pht v ca cc c ch thch nghi, m chng 2.2 gii thiu.73 Nh th nht thit l khng xc nh, rng lng cn thit ca hng d tr kt thc u, v lng tha, qu d bt u u, m chng ta c th gi l d cung mt cch khng do d. Trong khi gi tr ngng nh lng ny l khng xc nh, chng ta c th chc chn v s tn ti ca mt vi mi quan h tht s quan trng. Bn cnh tnh lin tc v tnh c t chc ca vic cp hng b sung, th mc an ton tng ln vi vic tng s hng d tr c c cu thch hp. Cn nu chng ta coi ln v c

73

L hp vi khng nh ny, rng doanh nghip ny hay doanh nghip n theo ui cc quy tc c ch v tinh vi v lp hng d tr v t hng b sung, v bng cch ny tc ng n ln ca mc an ton lin quan n cc khch mua ca ring n.

100

cu ca hng d tr l cho trc, th mc an ton tng ln do vic tng mc uyn chuyn, s trn tru, tc thc hin n hng.74 Cc mi quan h ny l hin nhin. Vn tr hc to ra nhiu m hnh phn tch chi tit bng s cc mi quan h ny. Nu chnh sch lp d tr ca mt doanh nghip m bo vic t mc an ton cao, th vic ny c tc ng c n ngi bn (th d cng c v th cnh tranh ca n), ln n ngi mua (th d, to kh nng rng hn cho ngi mua la chn, tm thy mt hng a thch nht c chn). Cho n y ti ni v d cung, v n c v tr trung tm trong tiu lun ny. Th nhng dng t duy cng c th c m rng ra cho trng hp d cu na. Nu mi khch hng mun mua v c tin tr gi mua ri b ca hng vi bn tay khng (B = 0), th r rng hng d tr t hn mc cn thit. Nhng nu ex post ha ra, rng ln v c cu thc ca d tr to ra kt qu B = 0,3, hay B = 0,4 th sao? Khi lng d tr c qu t? Li c th ni: gi tr ngng l khng xc nh, m mc chng ta c th tuyn b mt cch dt khot v lng d tr nh hn, rng n t hn mc cn thit. Quay li vn nh ngha: bn thn nhng n o suy ngm c m t trn cng l chng ta lng trnh vic dng tnh t d tha hay tha (excess). V phn mnh trong tiu lun ny ti c th (i khi khng thnh cng) trnh ni v lng d tr tha hay nng lc tha. Trong cun S Thiu ht (Kornai,1980) ti gi l slack ( m) chnh ci m by gi tiu lun ny gi l d tha (tbblet). T khi vit S Thiu ht ti trong cc hi ca nhng ngi ni ting Anh m nhiu hn, v ti c nht bo ting Anh nhiu hn. By gi ti cm thy, rng t slack c ting ngn mang ngha xu; n m ch rng c s u oi, lng lo v s m tha thi. Ti mun trnh ting ngn ch trch ny, v v th ti tm mt t trung lp hn (tbblet-d). Mt cch ch ti mun ng s nh gi, rng vic khng s dng mt phn nng lc cho trc, s tch t mt phn d tr, s lu thng chm c l s lng ph ngu xun hay khng, hoc l s d tr thng minh, hay l s quan tm c bit n ngi mua ng nh. Mc d ti khng nh rng gi tr ngng ca s thi qu, s d tha l khng xc nh, iu ny khng c ngha rng ln ca hng d tr khng bn c, v ph thuc vo n t l cc khch hng khng c tha mn l khng ng quan tm. y l cc mi quan h c th quan st c v vi phng php ph hp c th tnh bng s c.

74

Chnh sch b sung d tr Just on time (ng thi gian) xut hin Nht Bn v t c ph bin rng ri. Nu u vo cn thit khng c lu dng d tr, m lun lun n ch ngi s dng kp thi, th vic sn xut lin tc c th c gii quyt vi cc lng d tr t hn.

101

S phn tch ng rt ra bi hc v c th l gii tt c th c tin hnh lin quan n c cu cc lng d tr (xem Chikn, 1984). Hy xem bng 2.3.

Bng 2.3 T l lng d tr u vo v u ra, so snh quc t, 19811985

D tr u vo trung bnh/d tr u ra trung bnh trong cng nghip ch bin, 19811985

Nc Cc nc x hi ch ngha Bulgri Tip Khc Ba Lan Hungary Lin X Cc nc t bn ch ngha Australia o Vng quc Anh Hoa K Phn Lan Nht Bn Canada Ty c Na Uy B o Nha Thy in ___________________________________________

5,07 3,07 4,49 6,10 3,16

1,36 1,06 1,02 1,02 1,92 1,09 0,92 0,71 1,10 1,66 0,81 ___________________________________________

Ngun: Bng do Chikn Attila lp. c cng b cun H thng x hi ch ngha (Kornai, 1993a, 2002, tr. 260).

Vic tnh ton da trn dng t duy sau y. Bt k h thng l g, v s lin tc ca sn xut v bn hng, khc phc nhng trc trc doanh nghip sn xut cn n cc lng d tr c bn cc u vo cn thit cho sn xut, ln bn cc u ra hnh thnh trong qu trnh sn xut. Th nhng t l ca hai loi d tr mang tnh c th h thng. bn no c s cn thit ln hn i vi vai tr m ca cc lng d tr? Bng 2.3 cng c khng nh, rng trong h thng x hi ch ngha c nn kinh t thiu ht, bi v s bt nh l ln lin quan n vic b sung cc u vo, cn v thiu ht nn d bn hng v th t l ca d tr u vo so vi d tr u ra l rt cao. Ngc li trong h thng t bn ch ngha gi

102

tr ca t l ny nh hn rt nhiu. iu ny cho bit rng trong nn kinh t d tha t c th ch i cc hin tng thiu ht vic kim u vo, trong khi lng d tr u ra phng ln, v vic bn hng kh hn, v bi v nh sn xut mun m bo kh nng la chn ln hn cho ngi mua.

Kh khn th t s tng hp khng hp php Hy xem xt mt th trng ring, trong ngi ta cung cp cc sn phm hay cc dch v gn gi vi nhau. Trong cc m hnh lin quan n vic ny ca kinh t hc vi m chun thng xut hin d cu thun [rng] nh bin s gii thch s bin i gi. Nu d cu thun l dng, gi tng, nu m, th gi gim. (Mt nhn vt ni ting ca l thuyt walrasian l nh u gi, v tng cc gi ca Oscar Lange, ngi theo ui mun hn ca l thuyt, iu tit gi c theo quy tc ca nh u gi, cho n khi chng t gi cn bng.) Khi tnh d cu thun chng ta thc hin php tnh cng s ng: chng ta cng cc s liu d cu vi du dng v cc s liu d cung vi du m. Thot nghe c v c logic tuy nhin c li logic nghim trng n nu ng sau php tnh cng. Gi s rng chng ta kho st ti ca mt sn bay: cc ch trn cc my bay xut pht t sn bay c s dng n chng mc no. D cu: mt phn cc khch hng khng th bay vo thi im mnh mun. D cung: mt phn ca cc my bay trng khi ct cnh. D cu thun: tng cng s cc du khch b t chi tr i s cc ch ngi trng trong mt khong thi gian cho trc. Mt php cng v ngha! C l du khch, ngi mun bay t Budapest sang Coppenhagen lc 9 gi sng nhng khng ln c my bay, c n b thit hi bi nhn thc rng chuyn bay xut pht lc 7 gi ti cng n c n mt na cc ch b trng? C th, rng u gi chiu ng ta c cuc m phn quan trng. S i tr, tnh rng, tnh thun ca hm d cu l th php c dng thng xuyn c trong cc m hnh l thuyt, ln trong cc kho st kinh t lng kinh nghim.75 Vic suy ngm k vn gi s cm on nghim ngt: chng c php xy dng cc s liu d cu thun, cng khng c php xy dng cc s liu d cung thun. Mi trong s nhng kh khn o lng c tho lun n y nhc nh phi ht sc thn trng vi vic tng hp (aggregation), thm ch s cn nhc k lng kh khn ny hay kh

75

Cc vn ca s tng hp ny sinh mt cch gay gt lin quan n cc m hnh bt cn bng (disequilibrium) c dng cho phn tch kinh t lng v m ca cc nc x hi ch ngha (xem Portes Winter, 1980, v Portes v cc cng s,1987). Cun sch do DavisCharemza (ch bin), 1989, cng nh Brabant, 1990, cho mt tng quan v cc cuc tranh lun.

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khn khc cm theo ngha en vic tnh cng. Hy xt li mt ln na ln ny ch t quan im tng hp cc vn c tho lun. 1. Khng c php cng hng tn kha s v d tha xut hin dng nng lc khng c s dng vi nhau cc con s ny biu hin cc cp khc nhau ca s sn c. Trong hai loi hin tng d tha, th loi th hai, d tha nng lc, l cn bn hn, trong nhiu l do th mt l do l v vic gim n kh khn hn, cng nhc hn, ngc vi hng tn, m ln ca n c th iu chnh d hn. 2. C cung, ln cu hnh thnh trong cc qu trnh ng. nh bn ca tng ngi bn v nh mua ca mi ngi mua thay i gia chng, chng chn dn. Trong bc nh chp nhong c chp o lng theo mt ct, khng c php cng cc nh bn hay cc nh mua vi nhau, nu chng l khng thun nht nhn t quan im ca cp chn. 3. Vn tng hp c nhc n sau cht v c l gy ra kh khn nghim trng nht l: khng c php i tr, tnh rng (netting), tc l khng c php tnh tng cc hiu s gia d cu v d cung. Nhng li nhc nh trn chc chn l c hiu lc cc mc tng hp di (vi m) v mc gia. Dng t duy dn thng tp n khng nh, rng cn s thn trng ln nht khi chng ta gii ngha cc s liu mc v m. L khng th ng thi xc nh cung mc v m v cu mc v m lin quan n cng nn kinh t. Ti thnh tht th nhn: ti b sa ly trong vic lm r, ti t ch s quen thuc c s dng rng ri trong kinh t hc v m v khong cch (gap) xut hin i vi GDP tim nng vo u trong th gii ca cc suy ngh ring ca mnh. y cng l mt loi ch s d cung, ng nh ch s nng lc d (excess) khng c s dng ca mt doanh nghip sn xut hay mt ngnh sn xut. i vi ch s ny c l cng c th nu ra cc lo ngi v d dt, m ti va gii by lin quan n cc ch s tng hp mc thp hn. Trong mi trng hp cn phi lm r thm vn ny v phn mnh trc mt ti chng th chp nhn, nhng cng cha dm bc b ch s c nhiu ngi tn trng v c dng thng xuyn ny. Ti c th tip tc k ra cc kh khn quan st v thng k v nhng bt thng nhng c l ngn y cng gii thch, v sao ti li trnh dng cp khi nim nn kinh t d cu nn kinh t d cung c th d hiu hn i vi nhiu ngi thay cho cp khi nim nn kinh t thiu ht nn kinh t d tha c d nh c trng cho trng thi ca th trng chung ca tng nc.

Cc kin ngh thc dng cho o lng v b my khi nim 104

Trn c s ca nhng iu c ni y, v phn mnh, ti t b vic xc nh: trn mt th trng cho trc tng cung v tng cu l bao nhiu vi cc gi cho trc, ri tr con s sau khi con s trc, xc nh ln ca d cung hay d cu mt cch nh lng. Ti khng th vic c trng trng thi chung ca th trng bng ch s s lng. iu ny tuy vy khng c ngha, rng ti t b nhim v o lng. Thay cho vic o lng tng hp, mang tnh s lng chng ta c th dng nhiu ch s tng phn (ring), m chng lm cho cc biu hin c trng ca nn kinh t d tha hay nn kinh t thiu ht, trng thi v nhng s thay i mi lc ca cc biu hin ny, le sng. Hy ti k ra vi th d v cc ch s nh vy: nng lc v mc s dng nng lc ca cc nh sn xut v cc nh cung cp dch v; s lun chuyn ca cc sn phm d tr, t l cc thnh phn ca cc lng d tr vi nhau v so vi lng bn; vic hi cc nh sn xut v nhng cn tr ca sn xut; thi gian xp hng v ch i, nh mua ca nhng ngi xp hng so vi vic bn thc. cc im khc nhau ca tiu lun c th thy cc th d v cc ch s trn, chng minh rng, y l cc phng php o c th p dng c trong thc t. C th, rng c cc ch s khc na, m chng phn nh mt s nt ca cc hin tng d tha hay thiu ht. Cc nh kinh t, cc nh phn tch th trng v cc nh thng k nhanh tr c th pht trin hay chnh l thm cc phng php quan st v o lng. ng tic, khng lun lun thc hin c th t du ng mong mun l, phi t c s ca t duy l thuyt trn cc d liu. Nhiu khi th t o ln: u tin t pha l thuyt xut pht t cc phng on nn ny sinh nhu cu v quan st v o lng mt hin tng, v ch sau mi n lt vic t chc thng k. Tt c cc o lng c nhc n trn khng ch phn bit hai trng thi ri rc, d cung hay d cu. Mi trong s chng cho bc tranh v cng , v tnh nghim trng ca hin tng. Khng nh nhau: nng lc khng c s dng l 10 hay 30 im phn trm? Hng d tr 3 hay 23 thng nm trong kho? Thi gian ch i l ba ngy hay ba nm, cho n khi ngi mua c c sn phm hay dch v mnh cn? Trn c s ca cc ch s c k ra trn hay cc ch s ging th, chng ta c th tin hnh cc phn tch v phn b v ng hc ca cc hin tng d tha v thiu ht (v bn trong , phn loi tinh t hn, ca cc hin tng d tha v thiu ht c cng khc nhau, c trong lng khc nhau), chng ta c th xc nh cc c trng ngu nhin ca cc 105

phn b . Phn tch cn c ni dung ca cc ch s, chng ta c th a ra cc tuyn b c c s lin quan, rng th trng ny hay th trng n trong trng thi chung no.

S hnh thnh cc ch s tng hp, cc ch s phc hp C l b cng th nghim vi vic tnh cc ch s phc hp composit index bao trm tng lnh vc rng hn, c th bao trm c nn kinh t ca mt nc, gii thiu tm tt s ph bin v cng ca cc hin tng d tha hay thiu ht. Ngi ta s dng cc ch s tm tt loi nh vy cho cc mc ch khc nhau; ti lit k vi th d quen thuc. Ch s-t do, c d nh phn nh tnh trng quyn t do kinh doanh v cc quyn t do c nhn tng nc trong mt nm cho trc (Freedom House, 2010). Ch s tham nhng, cho bit cc hin tng tham nhng ph bin n th no v nghim trng ra sao tng nc trong mt nm cho trc (Transparency International, 2010). Ch s bu khng kh kinh doanh, c d nh phn nh tm trng ca nhng ngi ra quyt nh ca i sng kinh t, tnh lc quan-bi quan th hin trong cc k vng ca h. (Lin quan n cc tnh ton Php, xem Clavel v Minodier, 2009, v Erkel-Rousse v Minodier, 2009.) im xut pht ca cc tnh ton loi nh vy: rng hay cng ca hin tng c ni n khng th o c mt cch trc tip. Th nhng c th o c tt mt lot cc hin tng thnh phn. Chng ta dng mt hm s: cc bin s gii thch l cc ch s ring o lng cc hin tng thnh phn, v bin s c tnh nh hm s l ch s phc hp (ch s t do, ch s tham nhng, ch s bu khng kh kinh doanh).76 Ch s phc hp c th c dn ra theo nhiu loi phng php t cc ch s ring. Phng php n gin nht (v tt nhin qua loa nht) coi trung bnh ca cc ch s ring l ch s tng hp. C th s dng phn tch nhn t (factorial analysis), v nh kt qu ca tnh ton cc nhn t c ti ln nht, c sc gii thch mnh nht c coi l cc ch s tng hp. Khng phi l nhim v ca tiu lun ny tho ra phng php lun tnh cc ch s tng hp thch hp cho vic o lng tng hp s thiu ht hay d tha. Ti cng chng dm tuyn b: chc chn c th to ra cc ch s loi nh vy phn nh tm tt cc hin
Ti nu ra suy ngh ny t rt lu, trong cun Nvekeds, hiny s hatkonysg (Tng trng, thiu ht v tnh hiu qu) (1982) ca ti. Mun hn ti cng bt u mt chng trnh nghin cu c quy m ln vi s tham gia ca nhiu cng s, m c th x l cc ch s ring ca s thiu ht, v nh kt qu cui cng c th dn n vic tnh ton mt ch s thiu ht tng hp. S thay i h thng khin chng trnh chm dt: nhng ngi tham gia, k c bn thn ti, t ra cho mnh cc nhim v khc. May thay, nn kinh t thiu ht chm dt Hungary. ti b loi ra khi chng trnh ngh s. By gi ti cng mi nh li, khi vn o lng cc hin tng d tha xut hin trc mt ti.
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tng do chng ta kho st. lm vic ny phi nghin cu k lng ng x ca cc ch s ring phn nh trng thi th trng, s tng quan gia chng v vn vn. Ti ch mun to cm nhn: khi tnh ton tng hp cc hin tng kh nm bt v mt thng k php tnh cng-tr khng phi l php tnh duy nht sn c. C l b cng suy ngh nghim tc v nhng kinh nghim thu c trong qu trnh tnh ton cc hin tng khc phc tp (v khng th o lng c bng cc ch s s lng). n cui chng bn v vic lm r khi nim v cc phng php o lng, ti mun nhn mnh: b my khi nim v o lng c kin ngh l trung lp. u c th s dng c trong th trng, ni cc hin tng d tha chim u th, nhng c th trng, ni cc hin tng thiu ht ni tri. Ngoi ra n cng trung lp trong chng mc, rng khng ph thuc vo thang gi tr ring, vo s thin cm hay c cm vi h thng ny hay h thng khc, n c th thch hp cho vic quan st v tnh ton trng thi thc ca th trng.

2.4 Th trng sc lao ng: c ch ti to d tha

Vic lm r khi nim v s o lng Trc khi chng ta chuyn sang phn tch thc cht th trng sc lao ng, cn lm r khi nim v kho st cc vn o lng lin quan vi khi nim. Ti mun dng cng cch tip cn, m c trng cho vic tho lun th trng cc sn phm v cc dch v trong tiu lun ca ti. Nh th phi lm r, quan h gia b my khi nim ca nhng nghin cu v cc ch s xut hin trong cc thng k lao ng.77 Tnh hnh vi cc hin tng thiu ht tng i n gin. Cc thng k lao ng ghi r s cc ch lm vic b trng (vacancies), m chng phn nh tt s thiu sc lao ng. Cc thng k cng cng b s nhng ngi tht nghip c ng k (unemployed), m hin nhin cng l mt trong nhng s liu c bn ca d tha sc lao ng. Th nhng s c trng bng s ca d tha th hin trn th trng khng th gii hn trong s ny. Hy xut pht t im, rng theo tinh thn ca tiu lun ca ti cn phi o ci g v chng ta i snh vi ci ny, ci g l ci m v n c sn cc s liu. Chng ta kho st mt nn kinh t cho trc, quy m ton quc, trong mt thi im cho trc. Chng ta k hiu ton b dn c ca c nc bng Q. Bn trong dn c chng ta phn bit bn nhm.

Cc nh ngha quc t c th thy trong n phm ca International Labor Organization ILO (2010). Cc tn gi ting Hung chng ta ly t cng bo ca Cc Thng k Trung ng - Kzpont Statisztikai Hivatal (2010).

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1. Mt phn dn c trong mi hon cnh khng nhn lm vic. Cc iu kin khc nhau chn cc kh nng lm vic. Tr em khng th nhn lm vic. Theo thng k thng ch nhng ngi hn 14 tui mi c coi l c kh nng lao ng. Nhng chng ta bit t lch s kinh t, rng vic cm hp php vic lm tr em c qu kh tng i ngn v trong cc nc lc hu v kinh t ngy nay cng s dng hng hot tr em lm vic. Mt phn dn c khng th thch hp vi bt c cng vic no v s thiu st th xc v/hay tinh thn, c l do bnh kinh nin. (Ch : khng c php lit k vo y mt cch my mc tt c nhng ngi, m s phn loi chnh thc nh gi l nhng ngi sng vi khuyt tt. Trong s h ng l c nhiu ngi c kh nng nhn vic lm, th nhng ngi ta khng to cc iu kin x hi v kinh t cho s lm vic ca h). Thuc loi ny l nhng ngi gi, do bnh tt, do s yu i v th xc hay tinh thn nn khng thch hp vi vic nhn vic lm. (Nhng khng th coi mi ngi gi l khng th lm vic, ngay c nu thng k a ra gii hn th d 74 tui gia cc la tui c kh nng lao ng v khng c kh nng lao ng i na. Tc gi ca nhng dng ny cm thy mnh c kh nng lao ng, cho d khi vit tiu lun ny gn 83 tui). Mi cu l gii s phn loi khng c kh nng lao ng i cng vi mt cu c t trong ngoc, bo hiu rng tt c cc tiu chun trong chng mc no u c vn . Hy k hiu bng N s dn c khng c kh nng lao ng. 2. Nhm tip theo gm nhng ngi c kh nng lao ng, nhng hon cnh no ngn cn h xut hin trn th trng-sc lao ng v tm vic lm. Chng ta ta gi nhm ny l nhm dn c c kh nng lao ng, nhng khng hot ng. Chng ta k hiu s lng ca nhm ny bng M. Ti nhc n vi hon cnh, c th ngn cn ngi c kh nng lao ng tm kim vic lm. Khng cn n vic lm, bi v c ngun khc duy tr cuc sng (t ca ci, t thu nhp ca thnh vin khc ca gia nh, t tr cp nh nc, vn vn.) Ngi v hu v khon hu bng b cho thu nhp kim c t vic lm. Cc truyn thng ngn h tm vic lm. iu ny ng vai tr c bit quan trng trong vic nhn vic lm ca ph n. Cc hon cnh sau y cng thuc v nhm cc nhn t lin quan n vic nhn vic lm ch yu ca ph n. C nhn c th nhn vic lm, nu gi nh c th bit t chc vic chm lo cho cc thnh vin gia nh c giao ph cho ngi , trong khi bn thn ngi y lm cng vic mang li thu nhp: c th a tr nh vo nh tr, vo lp mu gio, a tr tui i hc vo trng bn tr, t chc no lo vic chm sc cha m gi v vn vn. Ngi th tm vic t lu, nhng khng c kt qu. Cm thy, rng khng th tnh n c hi lm vic v v th t b vic tm vic lm. Nhm ngi ny c gi l nhng 108

ngi kim vic lm b nn lng (discouraged worker). Thng k lao ng Hungary gi nhm ny l nhm tht nghip th ng. Cc nhn t ngn cn c lit k c th cng chng ln ln nhau. Vn kh thuc v lnh vc bin ca kinh t hc, x hi hc v tm l hc x hi lm r, rng quyt nh ca nhng ngi thuc nhm ny ti khng tm, ti khng nhn lm vic l t nguyn n mc no, v b tc ng ca s bt buc n mc no. Hon cnh p buc c th l mt chun mc x hi (ch ca n b l nh), thiu cc iu kin thc t ca vic nhn lm vic (khng c nh tr hay mu gio hay qu t khng th tr ni). Ci im, khi m ngi mun tm vic lm t b hy vng v t nguyn ra khi nhm ngi tm vic lm, l u? Ti tha nhn, rng cc ng ranh gii phn bit gia hai nhm c tho lun n y, nhm khng c kh nng lao ng v nhm c kh nng lao ng, nhng khng hot ng, l khng sc nt, khng hon ton r rng nhng tuy vy ni dung ct yu ca s phn bit c th cm nhn c d dng. 3. Cc thng k chnh thc cng khai nhng ngi tht nghip c ng k (unemployed). Chng ta k hiu s ngi ny bng U. Cc thng k chnh thc quy nh cc tiu chun nghim ngt cho vic phn bit, m n tch ngi tht nghip tch cc tm vic lm khi ngi tht nghip th ng t b vic tm kim vic lm. (Sut bn tun trc khi c hi tch cc tm vic lm vn vn.) Tt nhin trong s phn bit c s ty tin no , (v sao gii hn li ng bn tun ch khng phi ba hay hai tun?), th nhng loi t tin nh vy l khng th trnh khi trong bt k s tnh ton thng k no. 4. Cui cng cc thng k chnh thc ng k cng khai, rng trong mt thi im cho trc s dn c c vic lm thc l bao nhiu. Con s ny c k hiu l E. Cc thng k chnh thc gi ton b dn c c vic lm tht s v s ngi tht nghip tch cc tm vic lm l dn c tch cc v mt kinh t. Cc ti liu ting Anh gi nhm tng cng ny l lc lng lao ng. S ny c k hiu l A; A = E + U. (Nhm b to thnh nhm dn c khng hot ng v mt kinh t (out of labor force), m chng ta k hiu bng B: B = Q A). Quan im ca tiu lun ca ti gi , rng chng ta coi khng ch nhng ngi tht nghip c ng k chnh thc, m c dn c c kh nng lao ng, nhng khng hot ng l d-lc lng lao ng. Ti k hiu lc lng lao ng d l T: T = M + U. y l i qun d b (ti trch dn thut ng ca Marx), m t sc lao ng c th tuyn c, nu th trng lao ng cn n n. Trong cc thi k i ln ca ln sng kinh doanh ngi ta thu ht mt phn sc lao ng d; lc nh vy khng ch s tht nghip gim xung, m trong s nhng ngi trc y khng hot ng, khng tm kim vic lm cng bc vo nhm hot 109

ng v mt kinh t. Hin tng ny c bit d cm nhn trong thi gian chin tranh, khi theo ng ngha en ca t ngi ta c th ng vin i ng d b, vi s p buc ca nh nc ngi ta tuyn m ngi vo cng vic sn xut. Bng 2.4. Quan h gia cc khi nim ca tiu lun v ca thng k th trng lao ng ___________________________________________________________________________ Theo h thng khi nim ca tiu lun ny Dn c khng c kh nng lao ng (N) Dn c khng hot ng v kinh t (B) Dn c c kh nng lao ng nhng khng hot ng (M) D-lc lng lao ng (T = M + U) Nhng ngi tht nghip (U) Dn c hot ng v kinh t (A = U + E) Nhng ngi c vic lm (E) Thiu-lc lng lao ng Cc ch lm vic b trng (V) Cc ch lm vic b trng (V) Theo h thng khi nim ca thng k __________________________________________________________________________

__ _____________________________________________________________________ Tng c cu dn c Tng c cu dn c Q=N+M+U+E Q=B+A _____________________________________________________________________ Cc ch s (%) tng i Cc ch s (%) tng i T l d tha T l khng hot ng v mt kinh t t = T/Q b = B/Q T l c kh nng lao ng, nhng khng hot ng v mt kinh t m = M/Q T l hot ng v mt kinh t (vi tn gi khc: t l hot ng) a = A/L T l tht nghip u = U/Q T l thiu ht v =V/Q T l tht nghip u = U/Q hay u = U/L*

T l ch lm b trng v = V/Q, hay v = V/W, ni W l tng ch lm vic ___________________________________________________________________________

Ch thch. Cc thng k lao ng chnh thc thng dng cc ch s tng i c nh du sao (*), cc t l u v v. T cc thng k chnh thc cng c th tnh c cc t l u v v.

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Cc thng k chnh thc vch ranh gii ni khc, khi n phn bit dn c hot ng kinh t khi dn c khng hot ng kinh t. cho vic tm tt s phn bit khi nim c d hn ti cng b bng 2.4 H thng khi nim ca tiu lun ca ti mt im ct yu khng trng vi cc nh ngha ca thng k chnh thc: ngi ta khng tin hnh o lng thng xuyn s dn c c kh nng lao ng nhng khng hot ng. Xut hin trong mt s bo co phm tr ca cc tui c kh nng lao ng, thng ngi ta hiu ton b cc tui t 14 n 74 tui. S phn bit ny tuy vy khng ging vi s phn bit, m tiu lun ny kin ngh, bi v nh ti nhc n bn trong cc tui ny cng c cc c nhn, nhng ngi khng c kh nng m nhn vic lm trong bt c hon cnh no, v gia nhng ngi trn 74 tui cng c nhng ngi c kh nng m nhn vic lm, nhng vn khng hot ng. Trong cc phn tip theo ti gi s, rng ch s b quan st c v mt thng k, t l dn c khng hot ng v mt kinh t, c th chp nhn c nh ch s proxy-y quyn ca ch s m khng quan st c v mt thng k, nhng xut hin trong dng t duy ca tiu lun ny, phn nh t l dn c c kh nng lao ng, nhng khng hot ng v mt kinh t. Ch s thch hp cho cc mc ch ca ti trong cc phn tch, m ti s dng trong cc phn tip theo: trong cc so snh gia cc giai on lin quan n mt nc cho trc v trong vic ch ra cc s khc bit ln mang tnh c th h thng. Ti t c s cho gi thit ca mnh trc ht vo vic suy ngha k vn . Theo phng on ca ti t l dn c khng c kh nng lao ng l mt con s kh cng, v ch yu ph thuc trc tip vo cc nhn t dn s hc v y t. Ngc li, s la chn, m bn trong dn c c kh nng lao ng quyt nh, rng c nhn c ri vo nhm dn c khng hot ng v mt kinh t hay vo nhm dn c hot ng v mt kinh t, th ph thuc vo cc nhn t x hi v kinh t. Tc ng ca s la chn ny c bin s do ti kin ngh (nhng hin ti cha c o) phn nh kh r rng, cn trong thng k chnh thc ngi ta cng thm vo bin s ny mt s liu t nhiu khng i (t l nhng ngi khng c kh nng lao ng) v ngi ta theo di tng s ny. Nhim v ca nhng nghin cu tip theo s l s quan st kinh nghim ca s phn bit dn c khng c kh nng lao ng v dn c c kh nng lao ng nhng khng hot ng v o lng s ngi ca hai nhm ny. y l cc s liu c th quan st c khng c cn tr cho s o lng.

C sc do thay i h thng gy ra trn th trng sc lao ng

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 u tiu lun ca mnh ti nhc n mt bc nh Ba Lan, n gii thiu mt ca hng thc phm t thi ca nn kinh t thiu ht: cc k hng hon ton trng rng. Ngy nay cc k hng y p n mc sp sp xung Ba Lan v cc nc hu x hi ch ngha khc. Nhng ngi mua quen vi quang cnh v coi l t nhin. Cng lc trn th trng sc lao ng cng xy ra bc ngot. Trc nm 1989, cc nc x hi ch ngha pht trin hn v kinh t, tc l cc nc x hi ch ngha Trung v ng u v Lin X, xut hin thiu ht sc lao ng su rng. Tip sau s thay i h thng vic chm dt hng lot ch lm vic, vic sa thi nhn cng, v tht nghip ko di ging xung dn c nh mt c sc. Trong vi nm gim ng k b phn dn c nhn lm vic, (d lm vic thc s, d ngay by gi ang tht nghip, nhng sn sng nhn lm vic). Trn th trng cc hng ha l d quen vi nn kinh t d tha. Trn th trng sc lao ng khng th quen c y cn l cm gic ngt ngt mun i. i vi ti, i vi nh kinh t ng u sng qua bc ngot ny cho ng lc ln ti suy ngm k: trng thi ca th trng-sc lao ng gn b th no vi h thng x hi ch ngha, cng nh t bn ch ngha, m trong khung kh ca n th trng ny hot ng. Vp phi chuyn, rng bn thn vic t vn l ti chng h c quan tm i vi cc nh khoa hc phng ty, l cm gic tht ti t. Nu ti khng nhm, trong s cc nh nghin cu phng ty ca kinh t hc sc lao ng chng ai thm n lc khi nghin cu cc nguyn nhn ca nn tht nghip i snh kinh nghim ca ch ngha t bn vi kinh nghim ca ch ngha x hi. Trong tho lun kinh t ca th gii phng ty ngi ta coi l hin nhin, rng ngay c trong ci c gi l trng thi ton dng lao ng cng vn c tht nghip. V phn mnh c n ngy nay ti vn khng c kh nng c thut ng t l t nhin ca tht nghip c m t, c phong thnh hng ngn ln m khng c s pht cu (hay ng hn ti ni: m khng c s phn n).78 T nhin? T nhin xanh ti, m trong rng v th, v ng t xut hin ng thi cng quyt nh, rng hy c tht nghip? T hng thp nin ti l ngi ph phn gay gt h thng x hi ch ngha nhng ngn y c bn v c k th ca h thng u phi bit v n, rng khng phi tht nghip kinh nin v d sc lao ng ng k biu th c trng cho n, m l thiu-sc lao ng su rng. Bng vi s liu ti minh ha s thay i y kch tnh xy ra trn th trng sc lao ng ca khu vc hu x hi ch ngha. ng tic, khng c cc chui thi gian, m c th
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trnh hiu lm: nhn xt trn khng ni v ni dung ca l thuyt v t l t nhin ca tht nghip, m v n du sao cng c tranh lun rng ri bi cc nh kinh t hc v m, nhng ngi thnh tht lo u v tht nghip. Khng phi nhng nghin cu ca cc ng nghip kinh t gia v m ca ti khin ti pht cu, m l ci tn gi khng may mn.

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gii thiu trng thi ca th trng sc lao ng quay li thi gian di trong thi k trc thay i h thng, ri vi cng phng php tnh ton tip tc chui s liu cho giai on thi gian di hn hai thp k k t khi thay i h thng n nay. Tuy th cc hnh v cc bng di y c v thch hp cho vic nh gi s thay i gy au kh. Hnh 2.6 Cc t l hot ng v trnh pht trin kinh t, 1980.79

Ngun: Hnh v cc s liu thng k lm c s do Kl Jnos tp hp. Ngun v GDP l t . Ehrlich (1985, tr.100). S liu thng k v lao ng v dn s ca cc nc t bn ch ngha ly t UN Demographic Yearbook, v ca cc nc x hi ch ngha t CMEA Statistical Yearbook. Chi ch: T l hot ng c o trn trc tung l t l ca dn c hot ng v mt kinh t v nhng ngi trong tui c kh nng lao ng, tc l cc ph n v nam gii ln hn 15 tui. hnh c r, tn y ca cc nc khng c nu ra, v c lit k theo mc GDP theo chiu tng ln nh sau: ET-Ai cp; TR-Th Nh K; MEX-Mexico; RCH-Chi L; RORumani; YU-Nam T; RA-Argentina; P-B o Nha; GR-Hy Lp; PL-Ba Lan; BG-Bungary; HHungary; IL-Israel; SU-Lin X; E-Ty Ban Nha; IRL-Ireland; CS-Tip Khc; I-Italia; GDR-ng c; J-Nht Bn; UK-Anh; NZ-NewZealand; DK-an Mch; A-o; NL-H Lan; F-Php; CHThy S; N-Na Uy; B-B; L-Luxemburg; D-Ty c; SF-Phn Lan; S-Thy in; AUS-Australia; CDN-Canada, USA-Hoa K. ng ch l, tt c cc nc x hi ch ngha c lit k trong vng vch, c t l tham gia cao hn cc nc t bn ch ngha c cng trnh pht trin. Theo th t tng GDP, cc nc c ly mu l Rumani, Nam T, Ba Lan, Bungary, Hungary, Lin X, Tip Khc, v ng c.

79

Hnh 2.6 chng ti ly t Kornai (1992, 2002), trang 216. C sa tiu ca trc tung cho hp vi thut ng ca tiu lun ny, cng nh c thm mt cu u tin trong phn ghi ch.

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Chng ti xy dng mt hnh mi c cu trc hon ton ging hnh c lin quan n nm 1980, l Hnh 2.7 lin quan n nm 2009. Hnh 2.7 Cc t l hot ng v trnh pht trin kinh t, 2009 V tr ca cc nc hu x hi ch ngha c mu V tr ca cc nc khc c mu en

Ngun: Ngun ca cc s liu GDP trn u ngi: World Bank (2010); ngun ca cc s liu c dng tnh t l hot ng (dn c hot ng v mt kinh t v tng dn c trong tui c kh nng lao ng): International Labour Office (2010). Ch thch: T l hot ng c o trn trc tung l t l ca dn c hot ng v mt kinh t v nhng ngi trong tui c kh nng lao ng, tc l cc ph n v nam gii ln hn 15 tui. - Luxemburg t ra l outliernek, v th chng ti b ra khi hnh. Tn vit tt ca cc nc ging nh tn vit tt c dng hnh 2.6.

i chiu cc hnh 2.6 v 2.7, s thay i din ra sau thay i ch p vo mt chng ta: ci bao c nh du bng ng gch-gch b tung ra. Cc nc ca vng x hi ch ngha mt thi by gi khng cn l lng trn cc nc khc. By gi chng ti k hiu v tr ca cc nc hu x hi ch ngha bng cc im mu . C th thy, l by gi chng ln ln gia cc im khc, t nhiu quay v cc v tr ph hp vi trnh pht trin bn trong ch ngha t bn ca chng, thm ch nc ny nc n cn tt xung trn hnh. Thi , ng tic, khng c cc o lng bao qut, tri rng ra nhiu nc c lng v s thiu ht sc lao ng. Thiu s liu khc nn ti cng b li mt hnh da trn c s ca mt o lng Ba Lan. Chui thi gian ca hnh 2.8 kt thc vo nm 1988.

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ng cong gii thiu thng s ca s ch lm vic trng trn s tht nghip. Thang trn trc tung l thang logarit: s ch lm vic b trng bng 86 ln s ngi tm vic lm! Hnh 2.880 T l ca cc ch lm vic b trng v nhng ngi tm vic lm Ba Lan, 1964-1988

Ngun: Hnh do Kl Jnos xy dng trn c s cc s liu ca Z. M. Fallenbuchl (1985, tr. 33) v R. Holzman (1990, tr. 6).

Bng 2.5 gii thiu cc chui thi gian ca dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t, ca tht nghip v ca cc ch lm vic trng lin quan n vi nc x hi ch ngha mt thi, hu x hi ch ngha hin nay.

80

Hnh 2.8 ly t Kornai (1992, 2002), tr. 222. old.

115

Bng 2.5

T l dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t (b), tht nghip (u) v s ch lm vic trng (v) trong vng ng u, 1989-2008
Estonia u u Ba Lan Latvia v

Czech

1989 1990 1991 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 5.90 7.25 7.97 6.14 4.25 3.18

b 53.34 53.05 52.18 50.77 50.47 49.98 49.96 50.22 50.40 6.62 4.32 3.50 3.13 4.01

2.02 4.45 4.02 3.63 2.69 2.23

0.40 0.75 0.96 0.57 0.83 1.21 1.36 4.46

b 47.10 47.89 48.73 52.50 53.30 52.01 50.58 50.25 49.47

u 0.30 0.34 0.78 4.73 6.57 3.87 3.01 2.38 2.86

b 54.06 54.45 54.77 56.08 55.62 54.75 55.18 55.06 54.35

v 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.12 0.17 0.17 0.10

b 46.49 47.39 48.35 52.72 55.04 52.18 50.88 49.72 48.53

0.53 0.84 0.89 0.47

Bng 2.5(tip)

T l dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t (b), tht nghip (u) v s ch lm vic trng (v) trong vng ng u, 1989-2008
Hungary v u v U u Slovakia Slovenia

Litvia

1989 1990 1991 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.23 0.58 0.80 0.67 4.03 2.62 3.00 3.15 3.11 3.29 0.21 0.37 0.42 0.41 0.30 0.25 0.21 6.05 9.03 7.94 6.55 5.41 4.74

b 49.30 49.65 50.01 51.63 52.98 53.53 53.88 53.42 52.92

7.68 3.89 2.64 2.06 2.84

b 56.14 56.38 56.83 59.96 59.49 57.91 57.46 57.52 57.75

b 51.69 51.50 50.71 53.87 52.13 50.63 50.67 50.69 50.14

b 59.02 58.88 58.56 52.63 52.68 50.40 50.27 49.99 49.86

3.46 3.07 2.85 2.94 2.39 2.26

Ngun: International Labour Office (2010): dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t, s ngi tht nghip, dn s; OECD (2010): s ch vic lm b trng; Trong trng hp ca Latvia v Litvani ngun v s ch lm vic b trng: Latvijas Statistika (2010), v Statistikos Departamentas (2010). Ch thch: Bng cho c ba t l nh cc thng s, m mu s l tng dn s. Theo nh ngha nu trong Bng 2.4, ba ct gii thiu cc ch s theo th t nh sau: b = B/Q, u=U/Q v v=V/Q. S d chng ti la chn cc cng thc ny, sao cho chng ta c th so snh trc tip cc s xut hin trong ba ct. Chng c d liu cho bt c nm no lin quan n t l cc ch lm vic b trng cc nc Estonia, Slovakia v Slovenia. cho bng c d xem chng ti khng cng b tt c cc d liu ca cc chui thi gian.

117

Cc qu trnh sau y c phn nh r rng trong bng: Do kt qu ca thay i h thng s tham gia vo hot ng kinh t gim mt cch ng k. Lc lng lao ng d tng ln, m cn c kh nng lm vic, nhng vn ra khi lc lng lao ng. C th c nhiu loi nguyn nhn cho vic ny, m y chng ta khng bn chi tit. Mt nguyn nhn l, vic kim ch lm vic c th chp nhn c t ra v vng, nhiu ngi lao ng b nn lng. Trc thay i ch , trong phn ln cc nc ca vng ny ngi ta khng a ra thng k v tht nghip, nhng chng ta bit, rng ch xy ra rt l t.81 Th nhng sau 19891990 rt mau s tht nghip tng cao, v tr nn ging cc s liu phng Ty. Khng c cc ch s v s thiu lc lng lao ng trong thi k trc s thay i ch , s liu duy nht, m ti c th kim c, ti gii thiu trn. Sau thay i ch tuy trong nhng nm kh khn nht ca khng hong bin i vn c cc ch lm vic trng, nhng cc s c th c c trong bng 2.5 l rt thp, cc hin tng thiu ht khng mnh trn th trng-sc lao ng.

Tht nghip keynesian V sao s thiu ht-sc lao ng li hnh thnh v v sao li ti to trong cc nc x hi ch ngha pht trin hn v mt kinh t? Khng phi bi v ng-nh nc mun theo ui chnh sch ton dng vic lm. Khng phi l quyt nh ca nhm chnh tr cm quyn, hay cc ch tiu ca cc y ban k hoch trung ng bin th trng-sc lao ng thnh nh vy, m l cc tnh cht v cc xu hng ni ti vn c ca h thng. y theo phong cch in tn, mt cch rt ngn gn v rt n gin ha, ti phc ha c ch, m s m t chi tit v n c th thy trong cc cng trnh trc y ca ti, trc ht trong H thng x hi ch ngha (1993a, 2002). Cc doanh nghip thuc s hu nh nc. Cc lnh o doanh nghip bn cnh cc ng lc khc b s cng bch bnh trng thc y. (Mt trong nhng biu hin ca animal spirit c Keynes nhc ti.) iu ny i cng vi s i u t khng th tha mn ni: h thch thc hin cng nhiu u t thc t cng tt; du c tn bao nhiu th tn. Ngoi cc th khc ch v ring chuyn rng buc ngn sch cng khng cn h chi tiu cng khin h c xu hng u t mt cch v . Ngay c nu vic chia chc mt cch quan liu cc ngun lc

81

By gi y l v tht nghip bn ngoi cng. Khc hon ton hin tng ny l tht nghip bn trong cng: hin tng, rng mt phn nhng ngi lao ng c vic lm, c hp ng lao ng vi nhng ngi s dng lao ng, khng tn dng ht thi gian lao ng ca h mt cch thng xuyn.

u t cng to ra s ngn tr no ngi ta dung th vic vt cc nh mc u t, cc ha n ca khon u t thua l cui cng vn c ngi ta thanh ton. S i u t ny hu nh l li gii thch cho vic, rng s tng trng (chng ta ni thm: a phn l cuc chy ua tng trng c p t t trn xung) sm mun s ht ht ton b i qun d b sc lao ng. Nhng ngi lao ng dch chuyn t nng nghip sang cng nghip, cc ph n dch chuyn t cc h gia nh sang lm cng, cn c th cung cp cng nhn cho s tng trng kiu x hi ch ngha trong giai on u nhng mun hn cc ngun lc thm ny cng cn kit v s tng trng vp phi gii hn ca ngun sc lao ng sn c. S kim sot nghim ngt ca nh nc i vi gi c trng cho h thng x hi ch ngha c in. V th s tng cng thng ca th trng-sc lao ng khng i cng vi cc tc ng lm pht, m i cng vi qu trnh tng t trong nn kinh t th trng. Th nhng nu c s tng gi v tng lng i na, v tnh mm ca rng buc ngn sch nn cc doanh nghip t nhy cm vi chi ph hn rt nhiu so vi trong ch ngha t bn. Qu trnh i mi sng to chm hn rt nhiu so vi trong ch ngha t bn, nng sut lao ng tng ch hay hu nh tr tr. S thc bch tng trng trc ht i hi tng s lng lao ng nhng mc hot ng kinh t ca sc lao ng t gii hn trn c th chu ng c v mt x hi. S thiu ht sc lao ng l hng lot v kinh nin.82 D nhn thy, rng ci chng ta m t y, l nh i xng, hay trng hp ngc ca c ch c Keynes m t ca tht nghip. (Khng chnh xc l trng hp ngc ti quay li vn ny ngay.) Trong trng hp x hi ch ngha animal spirit v vi n l cu v m c gii phng, m c th l v (i) s hu nh nc, (ii) kho bc nh nc tr mi ha n v rng buc ngn sch mm v (iii) s kim sot gi v lng. Nu lch s thay ba linh kin c tm quan trng ct yu ny ca c my v cho (i) s hu t nhn, (ii) nh nc trnh vic cu vt ti chnh cc khon u t thu l, tc l rng buc ngn sch cng, v (iii) gi v lng hnh thnh trn th trng, ba th ny c vai tr thng tr, th tnh hnh quay ngc li. Cc nh sn xut lc cng vn thch sn xut nhiu hn v s dng nhiu sc lao ng cho vic ny, nhng vp phi cc gii hn v cu v ti chnh. Vic ny cn h khi vic m rng sn xut, tng s ngi lm t ti gii hn-sc lao ng.83 Nu d sc lao ng phng
Thc ra tnh t kinh nin (mn tnh) l c vn , bi v giai on tng trng mnh gia s thiu ht sc lao ng khng ko di. Ci thc s ng nhn c tnh t kinh nin, l h thng sp . Trong nhiu nguyn nhn ca s sp mt nguyn nhn cn tm chnh l y: sau s cn kit ca d tr sc lao ng c th a vo sn xut mt cch t do, s tng trng ca h thng x hi ch ngha bt lc vi s i mi sng to nhanh v i vi tng nng sut chm li rt nhiu, ri chuyn sang tr tr. 83 Cc m hnh-disequilibrium ca Benassy (1982) v Malinvaud (1977) gii thiu s i snh ny mt cch sinh ng.
82

119

ln, ch vi mt tr hay ni chung hu nh khng xy ra s iu chnh v lng ca nhng ngi vn tip tc c vic lm, lng b dnh (sticky wages).(Xem Blanchard v Gali, 2007). Ni v n d nh i xng trn ti bo hiu thm: s i snh khng hon ton chnh xc, ch t l khng theo ngha lch s l lun. L thuyt ca Keynes v c bn coi tht nghip l hin tng c chu k; trong cc bin ng ln xung ca chu k hnh thnh tnh hnh, trong v s khng cu nn cng n vic lm sa st. Phn tch ring ca ti i snh cc hin tng kinh nin vi nhau: trong giai on chn mui v mt trnh pht trin kinh t s thiu ht sc lao ng l kinh nin, cn trong nn kinh t t bn ch ngha d tha sc lao ng l kinh nin. Ngay c trong thi gian hng thnh trong phn ln cc nc cng c dsc lao ng: nhng ngi lao ng tch cc tm vic lm, nhng khng tm c cng vic, ngoi ra l nhng ngi c kh nng lm vic, tuy khng ng k tht nghip, nhng cc hon cnh x hi v kinh t khc a h tr li vo nhm nhng ngi lm cng. L thuyt ca Keynes gip hiu c ch nhn qu ca hin tng kinh nin, ko di ny ngay c lc y cng, nu kt lun ca ti (do s nhn mnh tnh cht kinh nin, ko di ca s d tha) c vt qua nhng tuyn b ca Keynes. Cc c ch khc cng tham gia vo vic to ra v duy tr s d tha sc lao ng ca h thng t bn ch ngha; cc c ch ny mt phn hot ng bn cnh nhau, mt phn chng ln ln nhau, cng qun ly nhau.84 Ti chuyn ngay sang vic gii thiu cc c ch gii thch khc. Nhng tt c mi ngi t nhiu u thng nht, rng c ch gy ra tht nghip keynesian (Keynesian unemployment) l mt trong cc c ch hot ng, m c tc ng n th trng-sc lao ng. Chiu tc ng ca c ch ny l khng i: tc ng theo hng tng tht nghip v gim dn s hot ng v mt kinh t. Tuy vy cn ph thuc vo cc nhn t khc, trong s vo c chnh sch kinh t ca nh nc na, rng tc ng ny ph v n mc no, hay b km hm n mc no. S ni lng cc gii hn cu v ti chnh khng nghi ng g s lm gim bt tc ng theo hng tng d tha-sc lao ng.

Tht nghip (do) c cu

84

C v s cng trnh v l thuyt cng n vic lm, lng v th trng-sc lao ng; tiu lun ca ti cng chng th cho mt tng quan v ti liu tham kho, hay nhn mnh n mt s cng trnh. Ti ch nhc n cc cng trnh lin quan trc tip n cc ti ca cc lp lun ca ti.

120

C ch c cy su vo ch ngha t bn to ra ci gi l tht nghip c cu.85 Tnh nng ng ca nn kinh t t bn ch ngha, qu trnh i mi sng to ca n, s ph hy sng to schumpeterian, m chng ta xem xt trong chng 2.2, lin tc to ra cc ch lm vic v ng thi lin tc ph hy cc ch lm vic. Hai qu trnh ny khng c ha hp, ng b. Ngi mt vic mt ni, khng chc chn l tm c ch lm vic, m by gi chng to ra v c cn n chnh anh ta hay khng ni lm vic mi. Ngi ta a cc cng ngh mi vo sn xut, m vic iu khin chng i hi hiu bit chuyn mn c bit. Nhu cu ny v hiu bit chuyn mn hin thi ca lc lng lao ng sn c ngay khng gp nhau nhiu im. V th mt phn nhng ngi lm cng c hiu bit c tr nn tha. S thch nghi, vic kim hiu bit chuyn mn cn thi gian, v trong thi gian ny c th khng tm thy vic lm. Bn cnh c cc ngi lm cng c, nhng ngi khng th thch ng vi cc cng ngh mi, v v th vnh vin b loi khi i ng lc lng lao ng. Tnh nng ng ca nn kinh t, s ph hy sng to lun lun p cc doanh nghip c ri khi (th trng), v vi vic ny cc vic lm mt i. ng, l lun lun c nhng ngi gia nhp mi, cc doanh nghip mi cn tm nhng ngi lm cng. Th nhng khng chc chn, rng cu mi (v nhn lc) v ngi mt vic lm trc v cung-nhn lc tm [ch lm vic] mi thay vo tm thy ln nhau. C nhiu loi tc ng ca vic nng cao nng sut lao ng. Mt trong nhng tc ng l, trang thit b i hi nhiu vn thay th sc lao ng. Vi s tng nng sut, cng vi s pht trin su ca nn kinh t th sn xut cng tng ln theo phng thc m rng. Qu trnh sau to ra cc vic lm. Nhng gia hai loi thay i c th ny sinh nhiu loi bt cn i, s m rng c th ko di s tr thnh tha ca lc lng lao ng. Hai loi qu trnh cng khc nhau trong phn b a l. Th d gay gt l s bin i ca nng nghip bn trong tng nc. nng thn tha sc lao ng hng lot, trong khi cc vng th ha hn khc li khng c kh nng thu ht nhanh d sc lao ng ny sinh nng thn. S dn xp li theo lnh th ca cu i vi sc lao ng khng ch xy ra bn trong tng nc, m c gia cc nc na. Trong khi s pht trin ca mt s nc lc hu hn tng tc, (hy ngh v tc k diu ca s tng trng ca Trung Quc v n !), xut khu r ca
85

Khng c ng thun hon ton v s gii ngha tnh t c cu bn trong thut ng tht nghip c cu. C ngi coi tht nghip c cu v tht nghip ma st hu nh ging nhau, hay l cc tn gi phn ln chng ln ln nhau. Tt nhin khng th vch cc ng ranh gii nghim ngt. V phn mnh, khp vi dng t duy ca tiu lun ca ti, ti dnh tnh t c cu cho nhm hin tng, m gn vi s ph hy sng to schumpeterian, vi s ti phn b lin tc ca sn xut gia cc sn phm, cc cng ngh, cc ngnh, cc vng, v cc nc.

121

cc vng ny y ra ngoi nhiu nh sn xut cc nc pht trin hn. Trong khi ngi lao ng nng nghip Trung Quc hay n b lng vo thnh ph v chuyn sang cng nghip kim c cng vic, th cng nhn c hay B mt vic lm ca mnh. y l mt trong nhng ci i cng ca ton cu ha. y chng ta n mt trong nhng kt lun quan trng nht rt ra c t dng t duy ca chng ta. Nn kinh t t bn ch ngha cng nng ng, tc l mt xu hng c li mang tnh c th h thng thnh hnh cng mnh, th tht nghip c cu hnh thnh cng nhiu hn, tc l xu hng xu mang tnh c th h thng cng thnh hnh mnh hn. Tht vy tnh nng ng v i mi sng to lun c trng cho nn kinh t t bn ch ngha, y l tnh cht c bn ca n. Tuy nhin cng thuc v n, rng khng th thy chnh xc c trc n chuyn ng ln pha trc theo hng no. Ai bit c trong cc nm 1930, khi na pha ty ca th gii ngi ta vn ang xy dng cc nc ca st v thp, na th k sau th gii thng tin v truyn thng xut hin, v cn phi chun b hiu bit chuyn mn cho vic ? Ai on trc c s ti sp xp nhanh ca s phn b a l ca s sn xut ca th gii, m by gi chng ta l cc nhn chng? Ci trong ch ngha t bn l tuyt vi n vy, ci mang li cc thng li mi ca tr tu con ngi, v dn n s lan rng nhanh ca vn minh trn khp th gii n cng gy ra vic mt vic lm ca hng triu ngi, v lm cho tng lai l khng chc chn i vi nhng ngi vn gi c vic lm chnh bn trong ch ngha t bn .

S khng n khp, tht nghip ma st v s tm kim Nhng ma st ca s n khp vi nhau ca cung-sc lao ng v ca cu-sc lao ng gp phn vo s hnh thnh s tha sc lao ng, vo nn tht nghip. S khng n khp (mismatch) l ph bin: nng lc do ngi lao ng b tha cho mi v yu cu ca ch lm vic b trng khng trng nhau. Trong mt phn ca cc trng hp hu nh khng th khc phc c s lch nhau ny, trong phn khc ca cc trng hp thc ra ngi bn v ngi mua dch v c th gp nhau ch c iu h khng bit v nhau. Phn ny ca vn c quan h cht ch vi kt cu ca s lun chuyn thng tin th trng sc lao ng. Ngi mun c vic lm, tm vic lm theo ngha en ca t, v ngi s dng lao ng cung tm sc lao ng ph hp. S tm kim l kh nhc v tn thi gian. Trong thi gian tm kim ngi mun c vic lm l ngi tht nghip. (Lin quan n vic ny xem cc ti liu tham kho ca l thuyt v tht nghip ma st v tm kim: Kornai (1970), Phelps v cc cng s, 1970, Diamond, 1982 v Pissarides, 2000, chng 5 v 6). 122

S khng n khp xy ra trong mi h thng x hi-kinh t, d s thiu ht, d s d tha li du n trn (c nh hng n) th trng-sc lao ng. Ma st ca s thch nghi l c ch, m nht thit gy ra tht nghip ma st no ; nh th mc y n khng l nhn t mang tnh c th h thng. (Tuy ngay c mi trng, trng thi chung ca th trng, cng c tc ng n c ch ny mun hn s cn ni v vn ny.) Hin tng c nhc n sm hn, tht nghip c cu v hin tng va c m t, tht nghip ma st ny sinh v cc thiu st thng tin, v tn ti trong thi gian tm vic lm, c quan h mt thit vi nhau, v chng ln ln nhau theo ngha nht nh. Nu thng tin l hon ho c hai bn ca th trng, k c s nhn thy trc chnh xc s bin i tng lai, th s thiu n khp do thay i c cu gy ra s nh hn rt nhiu. V ngc li: nu gi nh c cu ca nn kinh t b ng cng li c v mt cng ngh, c v c cu ngnh, v c v phn b a l trong c cu cho trc ca n, th vic tm kim, s gp nhau ca cung v cu s tr nn d hn nhiu. Trong nn kinh t x hi ch ngha lt bt trong pht trin cng ngh v ng thi b iu khin vi s cng nhc quan liu qu tp trung, c rc ri i vi c hai hin tng. Th nhng v mt ny cc chic phanh (thng) ca s tin b k thut gy ra rc ri chnh. S ct cnh ca ch ngha t bn trong tin b k thut (du thng tin c hot ng tt n u c hai bn ca th trng) bn thn n cng gy ra tht nghip c cu ng k. V th ti lit k hin tng ny vo gia cc nt c th h thng ca nn kinh t t bn ch ngha, cn tht nghip ma st v cc thiu st thng tin th khng.86 Hai hin tng chng ln ln nhau mt phn, c tho lun by gi s ti sp xp c cu mun i v ma st ca s tm kim tng hp dn n vic ng thi xut hin thiu ht v d tha trn th trng sc lao ng. Trong cc chng 2.2 v 2.3 ni i ni li v s xut hin ng thi ca thiu ht v d tha lin quan n phn b cc sn phm, cc dch v v cc nng lc. By gi chng ta c th b sung cho nhng iu ni bng vic gii thiu cc hin tng tng t ca th trng sc lao ng. Tht ng rt ra bi hc v mt ny t cc s liu thng k ca bng 2.6. Trn c s s liu ca bng ny, hnh 2.9 gii thiu chui thi gian ca bn nc minh ha.

86

Mc d ma st ny sinh do cc khim khuyt thng tin xut hin trong c hai h thng, thit hi do sai lm c nhng ngi c lin quan cm thy nhiu hn trong ch ngha t bn so vi trong ch ngha x hi. Doanh nghip x hi ch ngha, du nu c s dng lc lng lao ng vi hiu sut thp i na, c kh nng sng st sau thua l (rng buc ngn sch mm). Cng nhn cng t thy hn s tn tht do s ma st ca th trng sc lao ng, bi v s chnh lch gia cc loi lng khng nhiu, v bi v nu thc s mun t quyt nh ca ring mnh d thay i ch lm vic hn.

123

Bng 2.6 So snh quc t, 1980-2008

Dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t (b), nhng ngi tht nghip (u) v cc ch lm vic b trng (v):

Nht Bn Ty Ban Nha Thy in Vng quc Anh Hoa K b u v b u v b u v b u v b u v 1980 54.07 0.98 0.32 62.87 4.08 0.03 47.97 1.16 0.36 53.80 0.00 0.17 51.96 3.33 1982 53.60 1.12 0.31 62.70 5.69 0.05 47.56 1.85 0.25 53.62 0.00 0.26 51.47 4.57 1984 53.09 1.32 0.33 62.37 7.29 0.10 47.21 1.85 0.44 52.90 5.15 0.29 50.96 3.58 1986 52.86 1.37 0.36 62.95 7.72 0.12 46.77 1.52 0.55 51.56 5.60 0.41 50.23 3.39 1988 52.34 1.27 0.51 61.04 7.51 0.15 46.46 1.01 0.59 50.80 4.46 0.39 49.82 2.69 1990 51.19 1.09 0.52 60.28 6.46 0.11 46.01 0.99 0.22 50.14 3.51 0.21 49.72 2.76 1992 50.27 1.14 0.38 59.83 7.39 0.05 48.03 3.00 0.10 50.99 4.85 0.22 49.94 3.68 1994 50.20 1.54 0.38 58.86 9.88 0.07 49.59 4.82 0.17 51.62 4.74 0.32 49.99 2.99 1996 50.04 1.80 0.44 58.22 9.26 0.13 49.77 5.00 0.18 51.72 4.03 0.49 49.73 2.64 1998 50.03 2.19 0.39 57.13 8.00 0.36 50.67 4.15 0.29 51.60 3.06 0.60 49.32 2.21 2000 50.62 2.55 0.47 55.42 6.18 0.29 50.62 2.95 0.31 51.05 2.73 0.72 49.22 1.98 2002 51.17 2.83 0.53 54.78 5.05 0.36 49.54 2.67 0.28 50.95 2.48 1.02 49.61 2.85 1.05 2004 51.72 2.44 0.65 52.98 5.21 49.33 3.32 0.25 50.69 2.27 1.05 50.08 2.72 1.10 2006 51.91 2.14 0.63 51.42 4.22 48.34 3.64 0.46 50.07 2.71 1.00 49.91 2.29 1.33 2008 51.97 2.08 0.41 50.43 5.82 47.90 3.32 0.29 49.90 2.86 1.04 50.06 2.86 1.07 Ngun: International Labour Office (2010): dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t, s ngi tht nghip, dn s c kh nng lao ng; OECD (2010): s ch lm vic b trng; Ngun v s cc ch lm vic b trng ca Vng quc Anh v Hoa K: Office for National Statistics (2010), cng nh Bureau of Labor Statistics (2010). Ch thch: Bng cho c ba t l nh cc thng s, m mu s l tng dn s. Theo nh ngha nu trong Bng 2.4, ba ct gii thiu cc ch s theo th t nh sau: b = B/Q, u=U/Q v v=V/Q. S d chng ti la chn cc cng thc ny, sao cho chng ta c th so snh trc tip cc s xut hin trong ba ct. cho bng c d xem chng ti khng cng b tt c cc d liu ca cc chui thi gian.

Hnh 2.9 Dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t (b), t l ngi tht nghip (u) trong ba nc t bn ch ngha truyn thng, 1980-2009
70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00
19 82 19 80 19 86 19 90 19 94 20 00 20 04 19 96 20 08 19 84 19 88 19 92 20 02 19 98 20 06

(%)

b_E

u_E

b_SW

u_SW

b_USA

u_USA

Ngun: International Labour Office (2010): dn s khng hot ng v mt kinh t, s ngi tht nghip, dn s. Ch thch: Theo cc nh ngha nu trong bng 2.4, b v u l cc ch s sau y: b = B/Q, u=U/Q v v=V/Q trong trng hp ca Ty Ban Nha (E), Thy in (SW) v Hoa K (USA).

Bng v hnh cng c c hai khng nh c trnh by trn: (i) Lun lun c thiu ht v d tha bn cnh nhau. (ii) Trong cc nc t bn ch ngha truyn thng ny, (m khng tri qua mt pha x hi ch ngha) hin tng d tha lun lun mnh hn rt nhiu so vi hin tng thiu ht.87 iu ny ng ngay c i vi cc nc, m (th d nh Thy in) i u trong vic xy dng nh nc phc li v thnh cng trong vic lm gim tht nghip, cng nh trong vic tng t l s dn hot ng v mt kinh t.

87

Hnh 2.6 lm sng t mt cch mt cch sinh ng hai nhn t c bit quan trng gii thch t l s dn hot ng v mt kinh t: trnh pht trin v tc ng c tnh c th h thng. Trong chui thi gian lin quan n tng nc ca bng 2.5, tc ng ca tng trng kinh t c cm nhn mt cch mnh m. Bn cnh trong chui thi gian ca nhiu nc s tng ln c th quan st c ca t l (s gim i ca t l ca nhng ngi khng hot ng) cng b tc ng ca cc nhn t khc, trc ht ca s thay i cc nh ch th trng-sc lao ng. V th khng hp l i i snh trc tip cc s liu ca bng 2.6 v hnh 2.5 m khng c cc phn tch b sung.

Lng hiu qu T kha ca s phn tch khoa hc v nhm hin tng khc dn n s ti to lin tc ca nn tht nghip l lng hiu qu (efficiency wage). Ngi s dng lao ng sn sng tr lng cao hn lng lm sch th trng (tc l mc lng m ti cung v cu ca sc lao ng trng nhau mt cch chnh xc). y l lng hiu qu. Khng phi lng nhn hu thc y ngi s dng lao ng lm vic ny, m l li ch ring c hiu k ca anh ta, c th l trn c s ca nhiu loi cn nhc. Bng cch ny ngi s dng lao ng trc ht mun t bo v chng li s bing nhc (shirking-s trn vic) ca ngi lao ng.88 S tn rt nhiu, nu phi c ngi theo di ng sau lng ca mi cng nhn. B cng so snh chi ph gim st (monitoring) vi chi ph do tr lng cao hn lng lm sch th trng. Trong nhiu trng hp chi ph sau thp hn. Tnh hnh ny tn ti c bit khi, nu thnh tch kh c th o c bng cc ch tiu s lng, tc l nu trc ht cht lng ca kt qu c tm quan trng thc s. Ni dung tr tu trong tng nhim v cng vic cng nhiu, ngi ta mong i thnh tch tr tu cng nhiu ngi lao ng, th lng khon sn phm, hay lng cng nht n gin cng hot ng t hn, s chnh mng cng vic cng kh bt qu tang hn. Cn pht trin cc ng lc bn trong. Lng hiu qu c dng lm vic ny, theo nhiu cch. Khi ngi s dng lao ng cho mi vi lng cao hn trn th trng sc lao ng, c th la chn d hn so vi ch tr lng lm sch th trng. Cn nu sau ngi lao ng chp nhn ch lm vic c tr tng i cao, th rt c gng ng mt n. Tc ng ca lng hiu qu c y hn, nu ngi lao ng tn tm lm vic khng ch v s mt khon chnh lch lng tng i, m l nu mi lo ngi ca anh ta nght th hn th: s mt ch lm vic. Li ch tp th ca tt c nhng ngi s dng lao ng l s tn ti ca d tha sc lao ng kinh nin, bi v y l cng c p k lut mi ch lm vic ca nn kinh t. V th ngay c nhng ngi s dng lao ng c hc thc nht v nhy cm v mt x hi nhiu nht cng ch ng h s gim mnh m nn tht nghip vi na tm lng. H tuyt nhin khng mun, rng trng thi ca th trng sc lao ng lt sang bn i din, v xy ra s thiu ht sc lao ng hng lot. Nh th mi him nguy b sa thi lun l lng trn u ca nhng ngi c vic lm. Ngay c u ca bi bo ni ting ca Shapiro v Stiglitz cng tm tt sc tch mi quan h ny: Equilibrium unemployment as

88

Cng trnh tin phong ca l thuyt lng hiu qu l bi bo ca Shapiro Stiglitz (1984). C lng ti liu ln m t hin tng v phn tch nhn qu ca n. Trong s ti liu bng ting Hung ti nhn mnh cun sch ca Milgrom Roberts (2005) (xem trang 341).

126

a worker discipline device (Cn bng tht nghip, nh cng c k lut, 1984).89 Tuyn b ny nghe c v rt marxist nhng du sao vn ng! Kh ph bin l lp lun kinh t hc v m chng li vic xa b qu trit nn tht nghip v c bit l chng thu lao ng thi qu. Nu cc ng lc qu mnh i tng lng xut hin, v d cu v sc lao ng nn cc chi ph v gi c chuyn ng theo hng tng ln, v vng xoy lm pht c th khi ng. Lp lun ny c l.90 Th nhng n cng chng loi tr mt c ch khc: li ch tp th ca ngi s dng lao ng duy tr tht nghip mc no , nhm m bo k lut lao ng. Khng cn thit i vi s hot ng ca c ch c m t trn, rng ngi s dng lao ng c thc v li ch tp th gn b vi vic duy tr tht nghip. Nu th trng-sc lao ng tr nn cc k cng thng, v mc s dng lao ng t 100 phn trm, th lng kch khch thnh tch tng ng ln cao n mc khng th chp nhn c i vi nhng ngi s dng lao ng. Khi mt s ngi s dng lao ng, nng lng trong qu trnh mc c ring trn th trng sc lao ng, th bng vic mt cch v thc cng lm gim ng k vic thu lao ng. Khi tho lun dng t duy ca lng hiu qu khng c php l i, rng lp lun l hon ton quen thuc i vi nxn hiu cc t tng ca Marx v i qun d b cng nhn cng nghip (Marx, T bn quyn 1, 1986 [1867], trang 591-595) ngoi ra nhiu ch trong cun sch . S tn ti ca i qun d b cng nghip (theo ngn ng ca tiu lun ny: sc lao ng d tha) gip gi cht lng khi b sng, tng cng k lut lao ng, v sn c cho nhng ngi s dng lao ng, nu h mun m rng sn xut. Cng khng th chi ci, rng l thuyt lng hiu qu thn thuc vi cc t tng ph bin trong phong tro x hi ch ngha v v chnh ph, theo nhng ngi s dng lao ng t bn ch ngha tr lng cao hn cho tn lp cng nhn qu tc mua s trung thnh ca tng lp ny.91 Tnh chnh trc tr tu i hi s th nhn quan h thn thuc, thm ch c s tha nhn (bn) quyn u tin na ngay c i vi cc nh kinh t, nhng ngi khng sn sng th nhn, m hn th li xu h v s thn thuc ny.
89

Khng cn thit i vi s hot ng ca c ch c m t trn, rng ngi s dng lao ng c thc v li ch tp th gn b vi vic duy tr tht nghip. Nu th trng-sc lao ng tr nn cc k cng thng, v mc s dng lao ng t 100 phn trm, th lng kch khch thnh tch tng ng ln cao n mc khng th chp nhn c i vi nhng ngi s dng lao ng. Khi mt s ngi s dng lao ng, nng lng trong qu trnh mc c ring trn th trng sc lao ng, th bng vic mt cch v thc cng lm gim ng k vic thu lao ng. 90 Mi quan h ny to thnh xng sng ca l thuyt t l t nhin ca tht nghip. Cc cng trnh tin phong ca l thuyt Phelps (1968) v Friedman (1968). S trnh by l thuyt c th thy trong tt c cc sch gio khoa v kinh t hc v m. 91 Thut ng tng lp cng nhn qu tc do Bakunin dng u tin, v mun hn xut hin nhiu ln trong cc bi vit ca Kautsky v Lenin.

127

Vn cn mt quan im ng h s hnh thnh d sc lao ng: s sn c ca d tr lm cho s thch nghi c mm do. Vic tng t ngt sn xut hay chuyn sn xut sang tuyn khc s d hn, nu sc lao ng cn cho vic ny d huy ng hn. Tt nhin y l l do k tr. Nng lc khng c tn dng, linh kin tn kho l cc th v sinh v khng phi chu ng khi b gi lm d tr, cn d tr sc lao ng bao gm nhng con ngi sng, nhng ngi phi chu cnh vt vng. Ti im ny b cng dng li mt pht, v nh loi nhng iu c vit trong tiu mc 1 ca chng ny. Trong nn kinh t x hi ch ngha t trnh pht trin trung bnh, k vo y Lin X v cc nc cng sn ng u, trong lnh vc sn xut xut hin thiu ht sc lao ng kinh nin. Ai cng bit, rng tnh trng ny lm yu k lut lao ng n chng no. Ngi lao ng c l c th cm thy: ngi ta chng sa thi ngay c khi, nu chnh mng mt cch r rng. Nu tnh c ngi ta vn ui, th tm c vic lm khc m chng kh khn g. Mi gim c nh my v qun c phn xng phn nn v chuyn ny. Trc ht cm gic lng thin s ng v s ng nht vi cng vic, y ni vic ny c th gii quyt c mt cch hu hiu s thng thnh tch tt hn bng vt cht, l ci thc y phn ln ngi lao ng lm vic t t. Th nhng bng ma tht nghip khng c nh hng n k lut lao ng. Chng ta hy thnh thc th nhn, tnh hnh ny cng c li cho nhng ngi lao ng. C cng n vic lm l cm gic yn lng, thm ch ci cn nhiu hn th, s an ton v ch lm vic. Trong quy m x hi vic lt t trng thi thiu ht sc lao ng sang trng thi d tha sc lao ng i cng vi c nhng li ch, ln nhng tn tht v cc li ch v nhng tn tht c phn chia rt khng u gia cc thnh vin ca x hi. Chng ta hy tm tt nhng iu ni. S ti to lin tc ca d sc lao ng, tht nghip kinh nin v khng vic lm l nt c trng c th h thng au n ca ch ngha t bn. N khin ngi tht nghip au kh, chu tn tht vt cht, b lm nhc. N khin cho ngi ang c vic lm cng cm thy khng chc chn, v s s e da ca tht nghip. Nhiu khi n cu kt vi ch ngha chng tc v cc loi khc ca s phn bit trong vic la chn, ai c nhn vo lm vic, v ai b b tht nghip. Hon ton khng thc t chp nhn, bnh vc ch ngha t bn, v gia chng li i hay ha hn s ton dng lao ng hon ton. V ch i lm tr o thut vi t hon ton. Nhiu ngi lm th, c cc chnh tr gia, c cc nh nghin cu khoa hc. i vi ti ch s gii ngha chnh xc mi c th chp nhn c. Hon ton l 100 phn trm, v khng phi 97 phn trm hay 93 phn trm. iu ny khng ch mt nh nghin cu nghim tc cm thy nh vy, m c nhng ngi c lin quan na. Xc sut thnh cng ca mt phu thut ch l 128

100 phn trm khi, nu lun lun thnh cng. Bc s nghin cu hay vn bn quy tc chuyn mn da trn cc s thc thng k c th tuyn b, rng 97 phn trm c coi l hon ton chc chn, v l thnh tch rt p ca khoa hc y hc. Thc s ng l 3 phn trm, m phu thut khng thnh cng, s b bnh kinh nin, hay tn ph sau phu thut hay cht. Nu tht nghip ch l 3 phn trm th y c th l thnh tch chnh sch kinh t v m y n tng, nhng ngi tnh c ri vo nhm 3 phn trm chng c an tm bi nhn thc, rng ch do tht nghip c cu m anh ta b tht nghip. C th v cng cn phi tip tc chnh sch kinh t v m v to ra cc nh ch, m chng gim tht nghip hay lm cho tht nghip c th chu c hn. y l vic m nhn nhim v thc t; ng v cn n lc lm vic ny. Nhng ti cho l nh lc hng, nu thnh cng c th ca chnh sch ny c dng qung co: chng ta t s ton dng lao ng (y vic lm).

2.5 Tm tt m t thc chng v phn tch nhn qu

V kh nng lm vic ca khi nim cn bng Chc chn bn c kinh t gia cm thy, rng trong nhng phn tch ring ca mnh ti lun lun trnh s dng khi nim cn bng mc c th. Bn thn t ny ng ra ch xut hin trong tiu lun ca ti, khi ti dn chiu n hng suy ngh no ca dng ch lu. t c thut ng m xung quanh n li c s rc ri n vy, nh khi nim cn bng. Cc trng phi khc nhau cho t ny cc ngha khc nhau v gn cc phn xt gi tr khc nhau vi n. C ngi vui, nu nn kinh t, hay mt mng no ca n trong [trng thi] cn bng, ngi khc li khng mun iu ny, thm ch coi l tnh th bt hnh. Chng ta c th coi s i thoi nu chng ta vay mn t th tc ca ngn ng thng thng l cuc i thoi ca nhng k ic, v tranh lun din ra v cn bng, v bt cn bng, v phn-cn bng m ngi ta chng lng nghe hay hiu sai li ca nhau. Ti khng c cc o tng. Ti khng tin rng tiu lun ny, v vi ch gii tip theo di y s lp li trt t trong s ri lon khi nim. Ti tha mn, nu bn c hiu r, rng trong lc vit tiu lun ny ti gii ngha khi nim cn bng th no v ti ngh g v kh nng lm vic ca n.92
S gii hn trong lc vit tiu lun ny trong cu c cht t chm bim. Ti khng ph nhn, rng quan h ca ring ti i vi khi nim quan trng ny thay i nhiu ln v ti ly lm tic nhng thay i ny c th lm phin bn c. Ti khng nng tiu lun hin thi vi cu chuyn pht trin ca nhng suy ngh ca ring ti c l dp khc s n lt vic ny na. Nh th y ti ch m t trng thi hin thi ca cc suy ngh c lin quan ca ti.
92

129

T ci cn c hai cnh tay n trong ting latin to cm hng cho vic to ra t ny: trn c hai a cn cht cc trng lng bng nhau v v th, cho d gia chng ngi ta c nhn cho n lung lay, sm mun ci cn cng tr v trng thi tnh. Ti trng trn hai a cn cn bng nhau. Bng cch ny chng ta i n s gii ngha theo ngn ng thng thng ca khi nim: trong mt h thng cho trc (trong th d ca chng ta: trong chic cn) cc lc cnh tranh nhau b tr cho nhau v h thng tr v trng thi tnh. Gia cc khung kh rng ca s gii ngha rng theo ngn ng thng thng ny chng c l do no chng ta ght b t ny, m c th dng tt m t c trng v trng thi xc nh ca nhiu loi h thng. Trong th gii cc m hnh ton hc khi nim cn bng c th c nh ngha mt cch chnh xc. Khng b cng tm nh ngha tng qut. C loi m hnh, trong c th gii ngha khi nim cn bng, v khng ch c th cho nh ngha, m c cc c tnh khc nhau ca cn bng na: c mt im cn bng duy nht hay c nhiu, cc tnh cht n nh ca chng ra sao v vn vn. Cc m hnh khc nhau c cc nh ngha chnh xc khc nhau. Phn tch cc m hnh ton hc ca cc h thng ng c l c th xc nh c cc trng thi dng (steady state), cc im c nh y l cc khi nim h hng vi cn bng. Tt nhin cng c loi m hnh ton hc, m khi kho st n khi nim cn bng khng gii ngha c. By gi chng ta hy chuyn sang th gii thc, sang thc t. Cc nh vt l, ha hc, sinh hc u s dng khi nim cn bng nhng chng ta hy li vi mn hc ring ca mnh, vi khoa hc x hi, v bn trong vi kinh t hc. Trong thc t c cc h thng kinh t con, m theo quan im no trong cn bng, (cn bng hon ho hay cn bng gn ng.) Th d trong ngn sch ca mt nc hay ca mt doanh nghip trong mt giai on cho trc cc khon thu chnh xc bng cc khon chi. Trong cc kho hng trong mt thi k cho trc hng b sung n chnh xc bng s hng c ly ra. Sau cc iu ny chng ta thu hp cu hi: tnh hnh th no trong iu phi ca sn xut v tiu dng, ca nhng ngi bn v nhng ngi mua, trong phn b cc ngun lc? V tnh hnh ra sao trn th trng, trong hot ng ca c ch c bit ny ca iu phi v phn b? C tn ti khng trng thi cn bng ? Ti tr li khng c dt khot cho cu hi ny. Trn th trng thc, trong hot ng ca cc c ch iu phi v phn b thc khng c v cng khng th c trng thi tnh. Cc lc lng cnh tranh vi nhau, hay i lp vi nhau thay i lin tc. Chnh s thay i ny l s kin quan trng nht. Nu c l, ngu nhin, c s yn tnh trong mt pht, th l s kin khng quan trng v khng ng quan tm. Khng phi ti l nh kinh t hc u tin v duy nht khng nh iu ny. y l mt trong nhng khng nh quan trng nht ca trng phi o, t Mises v Hayek qua Kirzner

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n cc nh theo trng phi o ngy nay.93 Mc d c cc vn quan trng khc, m cc quan im ca ring ti khc vi trng phi o, nhng lin quan n khng nh c bit quan trng ny ti ton tm ng vi h. Ci cn c hai cnh tay n theo kiu c c dng trong ni tr gia nh v ch, sau khi ngi ta t thc phm ln mt a cn, cn cc qu cn ln chic a cn khc, ci cn lun phin ng nghing v bn ny hay bn kia mt thi gian. Nu ngi ta t cc qu cn thch hp ln mt bn, th do ma st s ng nghing ngy mt nh hn v cui cng s ng nghing chm dt. Hnh thnh s cn bng, theo ngha en ca t, v s dng ng nghin bo hiu rng trng lng ca ti hai bn bng nhau. Th nhng, bn cht ca nn kinh t thc khc vi bn cht ca ci cn c hai cnh tay n! Trong chng 2.2 ca tiu lun ti th gii thiu chnh iu ny. S pht trin k thut l lin tc; cung hin ti v cu ca ngy hm nay khng ch khc so vi nm trc hay mi nm trc v s lng, m c v cht lng na. (Nu bng mt ci tn duy nht ti mun dn nhn cho nhm t tng ny, m vi n cn b sung cho khng nh trn ca trng phi o v s thay i mun tha ca th trng, th y ti phi a ra tn ca Schumpeter.) V qu trnh i mi sng to lin tc nn cn bng th trng l khng th gii ngha ni. Ti im ny cng chng b cng nhc n, rng cn bng th trng cng khng ng mong mun v tuyn b ny da trn phn xt gi tr mt ri. y v by gi chng ta bn n vn khng phi theo cch tip cn chun tc, m theo cch tip cn thc chng. D chng ta c mun, d chng ta khng mun: th trng thc khng v cng khng th trong cn bng.94 Nu lp lun ny hp l, th cng c cn c rng ti khng vch ng ranh gii gia d tr nng lc va ng mc cn thit (cn bng) v d tha, gia d tr sn phm va ng mc cn thit (cn bng) v d tha, gia d tr-sc lao ng va ng mc cn thit (cn bng) v d tha. Bng vic ny ti khng vch trn s dt nt ca ti. S d ti khng dng mt phm tr, bi v trong thc t n khng tn ti. Th nhng t y khng suy ra, rng khi nim cn bng chng th dng lm g khi m t thc chng th trng thc. C th s dng c trong khun kh ca mt th nghim tng tng nh mt chn mc, nh mt im i chiu. Ti a ra hai th d cho vic
Ti ch nhn mnh vi trong s cc cng trnh ca trng phi o, m trong cc t tng c din t trn nhn c s ch nhn mnh: Hayek (1948), Kirzner (1973), Lachmann (1976), Lavoie (1985), cng nh Cowan v Rizzo (1996). 94 Hin nhin theo ngha ny Kldor Mikls nh gi (theo ti mt cch c l) kinh t hc-cn bng l khng thch hp (xem Kaldor, 1972). Tuy vy ti phi ni thm, vi ci u hm nay: nhiu hot ng l thuyt v b chc tc Kldor n mc, rng t b tnh khch quan ng khng mun tha nhn c vai tr hu ch, m cc m hnh cn bng ton hc c th ng trong th gii l thuyt. Khi Kldor vit bi bo bc tc c nhc n , bn thn ti cng ri vo cng sai lm. Ti k v cch hiu ca ti lc v s nh gi t ph phn ca ti ngy nay trong tiu s ca ti (A gondolat erejvel, 2005, Bng sc mnh t duy, 2008, chng 10).
93

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ny. Trong th gii ca l thuyt kinh t hc vi m, theo gng Walras, Arrow v Debreu (hay theo gng cc hu du mun hn ca nhng ngi ny) chng ta xc nh cn bng walrasian ca th trng. Cn bng walrasian hnh thnh gia nhng ngi bn v nhng ngi mua trong loi th gii, m trong mi thng tin l sn c y v chnh xc, m trong c th thy trc tng lai, mi s thch nghi xy ra tc th v khng c ma st v vn vn. Sau chng ta c th t cu hi: th trng thc hot ng trc mt chng ta, gn hay xa trng thi tng tng ny n mc no. Hay mt th d khc: m hnh tng trng do Neumann phc ha, m trong khng c thay i k thut, v trn qu o cn bng ca n mi ngnh tng theo cng nhp . C th ng rt ra bi hc ch ra, qu o tng trng thc ca ni nn kinh t lch n th no khi qu o l thuyt ny, v sao mt s ngnh bin mt, v v sao xut hin cc ngnh mi, v sao cc t l gia cc ngnh li thay i trin min. Th nhng ngay c mt pht cng khng c php coi cng c c vay mn t th gii o ca cc m hnh ton hc tru tng, qu o cn bng kiu Neumann, l nh x ca tng trng thc. Ti coi l c vn cc loi nh ngha, m chng dn ra khi nim cn bng t s yn lng ca nhng ngi tham gia ca h thng c kho st. Theo ngha ca cch tip cn ny h thng trong cn bng khi, nu nhng ngi tham gia v li ch ring ca mnh khng cn mun di chuyn khi im cn bng. Nhng y chng ta d c th lc vo nh ngha ca s xc nh tautologic [trng ngn].95 Tm gng vt l newtonian, trong khi nim cn bng c nh ngha mt cch nghim ngt c v tr xng ng, l lng trc mt cc nh kinh t hc, bt u t Marshall v Walras n dng ch lu ca ngy hm nay. V phn mnh, nu vn mun nhn c cm hng t cc khoa hc t nhin, th tt hn ti nhp vo nhm cc nh kinh t hc, nhng ngi c Darwin v sinh hc tin ha to cm hng. ng suy ngm, c nhiu s ging nhau n th no gia mt mt l chn lc t nhin v s tin ha xy ra trong th gii sinh vt, v mt khc l tng trng v s pht trin k thut xy ra trong nn kinh t phi tp trung. Mi sng kin khi nghip mi, mi s i mi sng to c th hiu c nh s t bin ngu nhin. Sn phm mi, cng ngh mi, phng php t chc mi, doanh nghip mi u tranh v s tn ti. Struggle for life. Mt phn thnh cng, v khng ch cn sng, m sinh si na: sng kin lan rng, cc doanh nghip c thnh tch tt ngy cng ln ln. Cc t bin khc tht bi: mt phn cc i mi bin mt, cc doanh nghip ph sn. Chn lc t

95

C nh hng ln l cc l thuyt, m chng xc nh khi nim cn bng t quan im ca cc k vng (expectation); s tr thnh hin thc ca cc k vng duy l c trng cho trng thi cn bng. Tiu lun ca ti khng xem xt vn ny.

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nhin xy ra. Khng phi mt ch trung ng a ra phn quyt vi s d kin duy l v tri thc chc chn: sng hay cht, m kh nng sng l tiu chun quyt nh. Ngu nhin c vai tr ln. a phn hot ng tt, nhng khng lun lun: ci c th c gi tr vn c th b ph sn, hay ngc li, vn tn ti mt thi gian, du c ci cn tt hn n. S tin ha sinh hc v kinh t hc cng ging nhau ch, rng cn bng khng th gii ngha c.96 S thay i l lin tc v chnh drive (kht vng) tn ti v bnh trng, k h gia cc kh nng, l ci kch thch s thay i. Nhng chng ta phi ng li y mt pht, trc khi tip tc mt cch m qung vic gii thiu s tng t. Malthus, nh kinh t hc, c nh hng ln ln Darwin.97 (Coutts, 2010, Jones, 1989). Trong tm nhn darwinian cc t c th sng sinh si, nhng cc ngun lc t nhin sn c cn thit cho s tn ti ca chng li eo hp. S lng ca cc ngun lc nh tr hay tng chm hn so vi nhu cu chung ca cc c th sng. S cng thng ca cuc u tranh ny sinh t y; s xut hin ca cc t bin mi v mi hn, s pht trin tin ha xy ra chnh gia cuc tranh u ny. Nu ti m t qu trnh xy ra vi thi gian triu nm ny bng cc thut ng ca t in ring ca ti: th gii t nhin l nn kinh t thiu ht v chnh ph, m khng c y ban k hoch v cc nh chc trch phn chia tem phiu thc phm, khng c cnh st v KGB. Ai xoay c, th ngom; ai xoay ti hn, th ngom nhiu hn cho mnh.98 Vi t in chun: y l nn kinh t d cu, trong ngun lc t nhin l bn ngn hn. Ngc li trong nn kinh t th trng, nh tiu lun ny th ch r, tnh hnh l chnh xc ngc li. y khng phi l nn kinh t thiu ht, m l nn kinh t d tha. u th l bn cung. Nhng y cng l s chnh lch, s cng thng, l khe h gia hai qu trnh ln, gia cc qu trnh cung v cu, l nhng ci kch thch s tin ha. Khng phi ti kin ngh thu nhn my mc m hnh tin ha no , m l t hn th v nhiu hn th. Kinh t hc cn ly cm hng t trit l khoa hc, t cch nhn, t phng thc tip cn n nu sau l thuyt darwinian. Marx v Schumpeter, c hai ng l cc v nhn khm phc Darwin, h xem xt ch ngha t bn theo cch hiu darwinian ny.

y ti ni v qu trnh ln, di xy ra vi nhp iu triu nm. Cc vn khc xut hin trong sinh thi hc, m c th c coi l mt nhnh ca sinh hc, v a phn kho st mi quan h ca cc dn c-sinh vt vi nhau v vi mi trng vi t l xch thi gian ngn hn th. Tng h thng con c gii hn mt cch ring bit ca s cng chung sng ca cc sinh vt c th c m t bng l thuyt, m bn trong n cng c gii ngha ca cn bng c kh nng hot ng. Th d, trong th gii ng vt ca mt khu rng cc th sn mi v cc th c th b git lm mi cho chng, cc nn nhn ca cc th sn mi, cng sng vi nhau. S can thip ca con ngi xua ui hay hy dit bt k nhm no, th cn bng t nhin b ph v: cc th sn mi b tiu dit, nu khng cn cc th lm mi, cn cc th lm mi s sinh si thi qu, nu khng c cc th sn mi. (M hnh Lotka-Voltera m t chuyn ny, m hnh cng c dng phn tch cc hin tng kinh t hc.) 97 Ti mang n Simonovits Andrs lu ti v s thc lch s quan trng ny. 98 Trong cc cng trnh sm hn ca mnh, ti gi loi c ch ny l iu phi xm lc.

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Kinh t hc tin ha c hnh thnh do cm hng ca l thuyt sinh hc tin ha darwinian c th nhn li qu kh nhiu thp k, t cc cng trnh tin phong (Veblen, 1898, Nelson Winter, 1982) tri qua s pht trin ln v c th c coi l trng phi t duy, m na chn trong dng ch lu, v na chn bc ra ngoi n.99 Ti cm thy quan h h hng tr tu gn gi gia cc cng trnh ca h v cc suy ngh ca ti. Ti mun hy vng, rng cc nh khai ha kinh t hc tin ha s gip vic lm chn mui, vic m hnh ha ton hc v vic m rng c s kinh nghim ca cc t tng chnh ca tiu lun ny.

Bt i xng ni kinh t hc chun bn v th trng, sn xut v tiu dng, c ch iu phi vic bn v mua, nhn thy s i xng gia hai bn, th ti cm thy s bt i xng. Ti khng n c trong chuyn ny. Bi v c nhiu loi tn gi c dng, trong bng 2.7 ti th tm tt cc thut ng thng c dng nhiu nht.

Bng 2.7 Hai bn ca c ch iu phi: Tm tt cc tn gi

Tn gi Nhn mnh cc c im no ca c ch nh mua, hc sn xut-bn khng c thc 1. Nn kinh t thiu ht vs. Nn kinh t d tha hin. Cc hin tng thiu ht hay d tha chim u th. 2. Nn kinh t b hn ch cu vs. Nn kinh t b Gii hn no ni tri, m s bnh trng sn xut hn ch cung (hay nn kinh t b hn ch ngun lc) Theo gii ngha v m: bin s tng hp no l 3. Nn kinh t d cu vs. Nn kinh t d cung bn di hn. Theo gii ngha vi m: bn di hn no xut hin thng xuyn hn v mnh m hn. 4. Th trng ca nhng ngi bn vs. Th Bn no mnh hn trn th trng. trng ca nhng ngi mua m ch n lc ca cc bn th trng: ngi bn c 5. S p vs. S ht p hng cho ngi mua, hay ngi mua c ht hng v cho mnh vp phi

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C th thy tng quan k trong cng trnh ca Hodgson (1993).

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Na u ca cp khi nim 1 (Nn kinh t thiu ht) c dng ph bin, na th hai (Nn kinh t d tha) do tiu lun ny a vo. Cc cp khi nim 2 v 3 kh thng dng, c bit nhng ngi theo Keynes v Kaldor, v theo trng phi hu-keynesian. Cp khi nim 4 khng phi do kinh t hc l thuyt, m do ngn ng kinh doanh to ra. Cp khi nim 5 c cun sch Anti-Equilibrium ca ti th p dng, nhng khng c ngnh kinh t chp nhn (Kornai 1971). Khng c ngha c bit no v cp khi nim no cui cng s c lan truyn rng ri nht, hay c th mt cp mi xut hin, m s c t in ca ngnh kinh t hc chp nhn vi s thng nht rng hn. Tu chung c nm cp khi nim phn nh quan im chung: gia cc bn ng hai pha ca th trng, ca qu trnh mua-bn c s bt ng c bn lu di: mt bn ngn hn, bn kia di hn, mt bn mnh hn, bn kia yu hn, mt bn c u th hn bn kia v vn vn. Ti hiu y l trng thi bt i xng lu di ca th trng.100 V phng din ny ti trn cng ln sng vi cc nh sng lp ca cc m hnh disequilibrium (Portes Winter, 1980, Benassy, 1982, Malinvaud, 1977). Mc d v mt s vn phng php lun quan trng (tnh ton tng hp vn vn) ti tranh lun vi h, v vn ni dung cn bn lp trng ca chng ti l ging nhau, rng chng ti ch trc ht n cc trng thi th trng lch khi cn bng walrasian theo chiu ny hay chiu kia. Tng t ti trn cng ln sng vi nhm ca cc nh nghin cu, nhng ngi ni v cn bng tht nghip (unemployment equilibrium). (Layard Nickel Jackman, 1991, Pissarides, 2000). Vi s phn tch c im ny h mun by t, rng nn tht nghip l bn vng; l do cc c ch tc ng lin tc to ra, ch khng phi do cc iu kin tc thi, qu , c hiu lc trong chc lt. Ti c nhiu vn vi cch biu t cn bng, nh ti trnh by vi trang trc nhng quan trng hn l s thng nht, rng tnh hnh l bt i xng. Th trng-sc lao ng khng lc l mt cch i xng quanh mt gi tr trung bnh no , v khi th ngi s dng lao ng, khi th ngi lao ng mnh hn. Tnh bt i xng ca tng quan lc lng l bn vng. tng v s i xng ca th trng hn ht sc su trong suy ngh ca nh kinh t hc. V kha cnh ny ti d trao i hn rt nhiu vi nhng ngi thc t ca th gii kinh
100

Nh kinh t hc bt gp t bt i xng nhiu ln trong cc thp nin va qua, nhng a phn ch trong mt mi quan h, c th l lin quan n thng tin bt i xng. Du ci sau c l hin tng quan trng n th no, nu by gi chng ta cng a kha cnh ny vo phn tch, th ch lm ri rm dng t duy. Thng th bc s am hiu hn (c thng tin tt hn) bnh nhn trong chuyn chn on v iu tr y hc. T iu ny vn c th hnh thnh th trng ca nhng ngi mua trong mt s mng ca dch v y t, bn cnh cc iu kin xc nh, vi iu kin, rng bnh nhn tr cc dch v bng tin ti ring ca mnh, c th t do la chn bc s iu tr, v gia cc bc s c cnh tranh v cc bnh nhn t nhn c tin chi tr hu hnh. Nh th trc mt hy t cc vn thng tin sang mt bn; mun hn ti cn quay li vn mt cch ngn gn.

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doanh t bn ch ngha, v i sng hng ngy dy h tranh ua l g. i vi h n gin l khng th hiu ni loi khi nim phi l nh cn bng cnh tranh - competitive equilibrium. Nu mi sn phm nh bn tm thy ngi mua ca mnh v mi ngi mua tm thy hng nh mua th ci g thc y phi cnh tranh? iu ny c nh l mt olimpia, m trong c bao nhiu vn ng vin th ngi ta chia ngn y gii. S hin din ca d tha v s tranh ua l hai kha cnh ca cng mt hin tng; mt ci chng th tn ti m khng c ci kia. Mi ngi c th la chn theo khu v ca mnh, nhn mnh n kha cnh no, khi dng tn gi nn kinh t dth, hay cnh tranh ca nhng ngi bn, hay dng thut ng khc. Bn cht l, hy cm nhn: m t mt tnh th bt i xng bng cc t ny. V khng c hi, nu cng bit, rng trng thi bt i xng ngc li cng quen thuc, nn kinh t thiu ht v s cnh tranh ca nhng ngi mua ly lng nhng ngi bn.101

Phn tch tm tt c tnh ca hai ch th trng Ti hy vng, rng khi bn c ti y, hin ra trc mt: tiu lun ny gi ci g l nn kinh t thiu ht v nn kinh t d tha. By gi chng ta c chun b cho phn tch tm tt c im. Hai khi nim m t hai loi trng thi bn vng bnh thng ca th trng. Trong cun h thng x hi ch ngha (1993a; 2002) ca mnh, ti dng thut ng hai loi ch th trng vi cng ngha (xem tr. 254-264). Trong t in ring ca ti y l cc cm t ng ngha. Trong mt vn ct yu ti sa i khung kh khi nim trc kia v iu ny gn vi dng t duy, m ti trnh by u chng. cho s gii thch c n gin chng ta hy chn ra mt ch s, m c trng tt cho mc thiu ht trong mt nn kinh t ti mt thi im xc nh v mt ch s khc, m c trng cho mc d tha. L tng, nu chng ta c mt-mt ch s tng hp (xem cc lp lun trc ca tiu mc s hnh thnh cc ch s tng hp, cc ch s phc hp), m n biu th mt cch tng qut ln ca thiu ht v d tha. Nhng nu khng c ch s , th i vi s gii ngha hin thi ca ti bt c ch s no cng c, min l ch s phn nh hin tng thiu ht cng nh d tha quan trng. Th d, s cc ch lm vic trng, nh ch s thiu ht v s ngi tht
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S kho st khi nim cn bng r nhnh theo nhiu loi chiu; y ti ch nhc ti mt loi. S tng trng cn i (balanced) n mc no? Cc t l ca nn kinh t khng b mo m trong qu trnh tng trng? Cu hi l vn l th v mt tr tu v quan trng v mt chnh sch kinh t, m n c lng ti liu tham kho ln; bn thn ti cng tin hnh cc nghin cu trong ch ny. Tiu lun hin thi khng th cp n nhm vn ny.

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nghip, nh ch s d tha. Hay s ngi i cn h nh ch s thiu ht v s cn h trng nh ch s d tha. Hy k hiu bng T ch s thiu ht v bng D ch s d tha v hy sang mt bn, rng ni dung chnh xc v nh ngha thng k ca n l g. Chng ta chun ha c hai ch s, sao cho T = D phn nh cn bng o. Th d, s cn h trng chnh xc bng s nhu cu v cn h. S ch lm vic i ngi lm, ng bng s ngi i vic lm. Trn hnh 2.10 chng ta minh ha nhng iu chng ta mun ni.

Hnh 2.10 Minh ha nn kinh t thiu ht v nn kinh t d tha

Trn hnh ng 45 th hin cc trng thi th trng, m trong d cu thun bng khng. Gc ta l v tr ca cn bng walrasian. Hai ng thng gch-gch c th nhn thy bn trn trc honh v bn phi trc tung. Cc ng ny minh ha cc tiu ca cc hin tng thiu ht v d tha. Nu khng v l do khc, th ch v ma st th trng cng chng th trong cn bng walrasian; ngay c trong nn kinh t d tha cng nht thit xut hin cc hin tng thiu ht, v trong nn kinh t thiu ht cng xy ra cc hin tng d tha. Chng ta c th s dng cng hnh 2.10 ny cho hai loi phn tch so snh. Mt s gii ngha mang tnh thi gian: chng ta gii thiu hai nc, bn tri mt nn kinh t thiu ht, bn phi mt nn kinh t d tha. Cc im gii thiu cc trng thi c hnh thnh trong

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cc nm khc nhau trong hai nn kinh t. Trn hnh chng th nhn thy im ni bt ca cn bng kinh t thiu ht, cng khng th thy im ni bt ca cn bng kinh t d tha, v cc im khc phn tn khng phi quanh im cn bng bi v im nh y khng tn ti. ( y ti ch tuyn b iu ny, ti trnh by lp lun ca mnh trong tiu mc 5.1.) V tr ca cp d liu T(t), D(t) trong bt c thi im t no lin quan n nn kinh t thiu ht s u gc trn bn tri ca hnh (bn trong ci bao kinh t thiu ht), cn ca nn kinh t d tha th gn gc di bn phi (bn trong ci bao kinh t d tha). Cch s dng khc ca hnh 2.10 gii thiu mt kho st mt ct. Mi im m t trng thi ca tng nc, trong cng giai on. Trong ci bao kinh t thiu ht l cc nc, m ch th trng ny l c trng, cn trong ci bao kinh t d tha l cc nc, m ch kia l c trng. Mt khc li gii thch ca hnh ging nh li gii thch ca s gii ngha mt nc, s bin i theo thi gian ca cc c trng trng thi. T nhng iu ni rt ra cc kt lun ct yu lin quan n nh ngha ca hai ch th trng. Ti khng bit v cng khng mun a ra a priori (mt cch tin nghim) cc gi tr ngng bng s lin quan n min gi tr ca cp d liu (T, D), bt u u, v kt thc u, m phi li bn trong min chng ta c th cho ci tn nn kinh t thiu ht, hay nn kinh t d tha. Trong khi ch da vo kinh nghim thng ngy, chng ta ni hi lng lo v iu ny, th t duy tnh to cng gi cc nim bng s. Nu ti tm cn h mt khu ph no , v mc d c nhiu cn h cho thu c th ko di hng tun, cho n khi ti tm c cn h thch hp s tm kim vi tun l ny vn cha m ch v nn kinh t thiu ht, m ch v hin tng thiu ht ma st m thi. Ch s T ny vn va trong ci bao di pha bn phi. Nhng nu ti phi ch nm nm, cho n khi y ban hnh chnh thnh ph phn nh cho ti, th khi chc chn ti sng trong nn kinh t thiu ht. Gi tr T ny ch c th va trong ci bao trn pha bn tri. Ngi sng trong nn kinh t thiu ht cm thy bnh thng, nu cc c trng trng thi ca th trng di chuyn trong min do ci bao pha trn bn tri gii hn, cn ngi sng trong nn kinh t d tha cm thy bnh thng, nu cc c trng trng thi bn trong ci bao pha di bn phi.102 Tng t, khoa hc y t hay khoa hc khc kho st cc c th sng v s thc hnh, nh ngha ca tnh bnh thng (mc ng bnh thng trong mu,

Trong cc cng trnh sm hn ca mnh ti s dng khi nim trng thi bnh thng lin quan n c nn kinh t thiu ht, ln nn kinh t d tha. By gi ti trnh phng thc din t ny. Trng thi bnh thng thc ra l t ng ngha ca cn bng n nh. Khi nim c kh nng hot ng trong th gii m hnh ton hc, nhng khng th s dng c cho vic m t c trng ca trng thi ca nn kinh t thc. Theo tinh thn ca tiu lun hin thi, l bnh thng, nu bn trong mt nn kinh t d tha cc ch s m t s d tha nm bn trong mt min c trng nhng khng c im cn bng ni bt.

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mc huyt p bnh thng) khng phi l mt gi tr bng s c xc nh mt cch chnh xc, m l mt di gi tr, mt min gi tr t-n. C th v cc ng vin ca cc ci bao, hay ch t a ra c lng gn ng v tr tht ca chng, ch vi s gip ca s quan st cc trng thi thc v ca s phn tch thng k nhng kinh nghim. Hy tm tt nh ngha ca hai ch . Nn kinh t thiu ht l ch th trng, m trong cc hin tng thiu ht l ph bin, kinh nin v c cng mnh. C xy ra trong cc hin tng d tha, nhng chng c lp, tm thi v a phn khng c cng mnh. Nn kinh t d tha l ch th trng, m trong cc hin tng d tha l ph bin, kinh nin v c cng mnh. C xut hin bn trong n cc hin tng thiu ht, nhng chng c lp, tm thi v a phn khng c cng mnh. Mt trong nhng tng c bn ca tiu lun ca ti l, cc c trng trng thi ca cc th trng c hnh thnh v mt lch s, hot ng trong thc t khng tn mc quanh ng thng 45 , m hoc l bn trn v pha tri, hoc l bn di v pha phi. Cc im nm trn ng thng 45 tng trng cho trng thi i xng hon ho gia hai bn th trng i mt nhau. Nu gi nh trn th trng ch xy ra s dao ng i xng quanh mt im cn bng, th cc trng thi ca th trng nm trn ng 45 trn hnh ca chng ta. V tr ca hai ci bao tng trng cho s thc, rng trng thi thc l bt i xng; trong mt ci bao cc hin tng thiu ht, trong ci bao kia cc hin tng d tha chim u th. C th l, nh kinh t hc quen vi cc m hnh ton hc ch i nh ngha nghim ngt hn th ny. ng tic, ti khng bit cung cp nh ngha nh vy. C th l, mun hn, vi cc m hnh l thuyt v nhng quan st kinh nghim ri chng ta c th tin bc v pha cc nh ngha nghim ngt hn. Cho n khi ti mun trnh s chnh xc gi mo. Ngi tng c pha ng ln pha ty ca bc mn st, bit chnh xc, ci bao pha trn bn tri v pha di bn phi c ngha l g. Trn hnh 2.10 ch c duy nht mt bin s T v duy nht mt bin s D. Trn thc t trong mt nc duy nht, trong mt thi im duy nht cng c hng triu bin s T v D. Tiu lun ca ti gi phng on, rng gia nhiu loi bin s T c s tng quan mnh, v tng quan gia nhiu loi bin s D cng mnh. y trc ht tt nhin li l vn thc nghim vi con mt m ti cm thy bao nhiu, ti ch bit v chuyn ny by nhiu. Vn i hi nhng nghin cu rng ln. Chc l c th to ra cc s tng hp v/hoc cc ch s kt hp, v bng cch nh vy trng thi th trng ca tng nc c th c m t bng nhiu hn hai, nhng t hn mt triu, chng hn nm-mi-hai mi, ch s thiu ht v ch 139

s d tha. Tt nhin, vi sc tng tng th gic ca mnh chng ta ch c th tng tng ra trc mt mnh khng gian nhiu nht l ba chiu. Nhng nu khng gn lin vi n bc tranh c th nhn thy c, bn c thnh tho hn v ton hc hiu c s khi qut ha ca cc khng nh ca ti cho trng hp, nu s cc ch s thiu ht v d tha l n. Ton b n ch s ca mt nc cng nhau l mt im trong khng gian n-chiu. A. Ch th trng ca mt nc no l nn kinh t d tha, nu cc im trong khng gian n-chiu i din cho tp cc s ca cc ch s thiu ht v d tha lin quan n cc thi k khc nhau t li trong mt b, m trong cc ch s d tha ly cc gi tr cao, cn cc ch s thiu ht ly cc gi tr thp (trn hnh hai chiu gn gc di bn phi.) B. Ch th trng ca mt nc no l nn kinh t thiu ht, nu cc im trong khng gian n-chiu i din cho tp cc s ca cc ch s thiu ht v d tha lin quan n cc thi k khc nhau t li trong mt b, m trong cc ch s thiu ht ly cc gi tr cao, cn cc ch s d tha ly cc gi tr thp (trn hnh hai chiu gn gc trn bn tri.) Bng cc php th thc nghim phi xc nhn hay bc b, rng cc ch s T v D khng tn mc t tung, m t li bn trong mt trong hai loi bao [hay b] v ch tn mc bn trong cc bao n-chiu ny. Ni c nn kinh t d tha, thiu ht ch l ngoi l. V ngc li, ni c nn kinh t thiu ht, d tha ch l ngoi l. Khi n lt th thc nghim tht s, phi chnh xc ha cc cch din t trn nhiu phng din: phi hiu ci g vi tnh t ngoi l, phi hiu theo ng tng ch n mc no, rng gi tr ca ch s phi bn trong bao v vn vn. By gi ti cm thy vic xc nh cc nh gi y trong tiu lun ny l s lm ra v quan trng ha tha. Vic ny s n lc ca n, nu nhng nghin cu kinh nghim c phng php v ti ny c bt u. Cc khng nh trn gn vi s m t c trng ca hai loi ch th trng khng ch i hi s tr kinh nghim. Cng cn cn nhc k cc mi quan h nhn qu gii thch s hnh thnh cc hin tng thiu ht v d tha. Gia chng nhiu ln ni n cc c ch gy ra thiu ht v d tha. By gii ti th tm tt cc tng ny.

H thng t bn ch ngha to ra nn kinh t d tha: chui nhn qu Ti nu trc cc khng nh, m c th trong dng tng qut nht. Khng nh 1. Ch h thng t bn ch ngha c kh nng to ra nn kinh t d tha bao trm ton b nn kinh t v ti to n mt cch bn vng. Ch ch ngha t bn mi c kh nng to ra v ti to ra mt cch bn vng cc c ch gy ra cc triu chng kinh nin ca nn kinh t d tha. 140

Chiu logic ca khng nh c th c o ngc. Khng nh 2. Nu trong mt nc cho trc, c h thng t bn ch ngha, th n phi hot ng nh mt nn kinh t d tha. Nn kinh t d tha l tnh cht vn c ca ch ngha t bn. Nn kinh t d tha xut hin khng bi v nh nc tin hnh chnh sch kinh t th ny hay th n. Chnh sch ti kha v tin t, chnh sch phn chia thu nhp v gi c c th khin cho mt s hin tng d tha c cng mnh hn, hay gim cng ca chng th nhng khng to ra nn kinh t d tha. S d nn kinh t d tha xut hin, bi v n l mt thnh phn mt du hiu quan trng nht ca bn cht ca ch ngha t bn. y l cc khng nh thc chng. C th vui, rng ch ngha t bn l nn kinh t d tha, hay v chuyn ny c th ln n h thng. Ti cn quay li cc quan im chun tc. Trc mt ti ch khng nh: ni c ch ngha t bn, c nn kinh t d tha. Mc d nhng khng nh trn ca ti v ch ngha t bn v nn kinh t d tha to thnh thng ip trung tm ca tiu lun ca ti, v tnh y cng ng nhc n cc khng nh tm tt lin quan n h thng x hi ch ngha, c trnh by trong cc cng trnh sm hn ca ti. Khng nh 3. Ch h thng x hi ch ngha c kh nng to ra v ti to ra mt cch bn vng nn kinh t thiu ht bao trm ton b nn kinh t. Ch ch ngha x hi c kh nng to ra v ti to ra mt cch bn vng c ch gy ra cc triu chng kinh nin ca nn kinh t thiu ht. Chiu logic ca khng nh c th c o ngc. Khng nh 4. Nu trong mt nc cho trc c h thng x hi ch ngha, th n phi hot ng nh nn kinh t thiu ht. Nn kinh t thiu ht l tnh cht vn c ca ch ngha x hi. Nn kinh t thiu ht xut hin khng bi v nh nc tin hnh chnh sch kinh t th ny hay th n. K hoch ha v qun l kinh t c th khin mt s hin tng thiu ht c cng mnh hn, hay gim cng ca chng nhng khng to ra nn kinh t thiu ht. Nn kinh t thiu ht s d xut hin, bi v n l mt thnh phn mt du hiu quan trng nht ca bn cht ca ch ngha x hi. Ni c ch ngha x hi, c nn kinh t thiu ht. Ti din t mnh. Mun hn ti cn to sc thi cho cc tuyn b ca mnh; ti s nhc n cc ngoi l, cc trng hp pha trn, cc hnh thi qu . Th nhng cho s ly u tin ti mun, nu hn su vnh vin trong bn c: v mt ny, trong dng c in ca chng, cc h thng kinh t nm khng phi gn con ng trung dung loi no .103
103

Nu ti th trnh by dng t duy ca mnh bng ngn ng ton hc ca cc l thuyt-cn bng, th phi xy dng loi m hnh c khng phi mt, m l hai im cn bng n nh, mt cn bng kinh t thiu ht v mt

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Nhiu ln trn xut hin t: khng nh. C th l, theo l nghi hn lm c l phi gi chng l cc phng on hay gi thuyt. Ti cm thy, s l s gii di t pha ti, nu nh ti dng cc t ny. Ci m ti khng nh, c kinh nghim hng ngy xc nhn bng hng triu s thc. Hu nh l phn [biu din] thm, rng ti cn th chng minh v mt logic. Bn cnh , trong s cc bng c cng b trong tiu lun, th cc hnh 2.6 v 2.10 cng cng c cc khng nh trn bng cc d liu thng k. Ti mun nhn mnh, rng ti nh dng cc s liu ny khng nh cc bng chng, m ch nh cc minh ha tr cho khng nh. Cc khng nh ca ti khng tautologic [trng ngn], v khng so rng. Chng c th b bc b. Bn thn ti tin hnh cc nghin cu tip theo ca mnh cng vi s nghi ng bt buc i vi cc khng nh ring ca ti v kh nng bc b cng ng cho cc nh ph bnh ca ti. Bn khng nh trn tuyn b s tn ti ca quan h nhn qu. Nguyn nhn l h thng t bn ch ngha (x hi ch ngha), h qu l nn kinh t d tha (nn kinh t thiu ht.) Th nhng chui phc tp ca cc nguyn nhn-h qu trung gian chm vo gia nguyn nhn v h qu. Trong phn tip theo ti ch xem xt chi tit hn mt cht s m t chui nhn qu lin quan n h thng t bn ch ngha; ti th minh ha vic ny trn Hnh 2.11. Cc cng trnh sm hn ca ti xem xt chui nhn qu lin quan n h thng x hi ch ngha.104

cn bng kinh t d tha. Trong trng hp ny trong th gii o ca m hnh h thng hoc trong mt im cn bng hay trong im cn bng kia. M hnh c l c th gip hiu: cc tham s no phi thay i cho h thng b khi ci by ca mt cn bng v ri vo ci by ca cn bng kia. Vi s t chm bim ti ghi ch: c l ti nn thc gic vic din t li cn bng kiu nh th. S din t li s lm d mt cch ng k, rng cc ng nghip kinh t gia c nui dng trong th gii ca cc m hnh cn bng ton hc v ch hiu ngn ng ny cng hiu v chp nhn cc tng ca ti. Cng ng th, bi v kinh t hc bit khng ch mt m hnh, m trong xut hin cc trng thi cn bng khc nhau mt cch sc nt. 104 Trc ht xem cun H thng x hi ch ngha (1992; 2002) ca ti. Chng 15 tm tt chui nhn qu dn n nn kinh t thiu ht.

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Hnh 11. Chui nhn qu ca cc nhn t gy ra nn kinh t d tha

bloc 1. S hu t nhn t bn ch ngha v iu phi th trng chim u th

bloc 2. Tinh thn kinh doanh khi nghip (entrepreneurship)

bloc 4. Cung: kht vng bnh trng Qu trnh i mi, s ph hy sng to rt li sau s sng to

bloc 8. D nng lc D hng d tr

Cnh tranh c tnh c quyn, tranh ua

Nng lc d tr v hng d tr an ton

bloc 3. Rng buc ngn sch cng

Bloc 5. Km tng cu

Bloc 9. D sc lao ng

bloc 6. Tnh cng nhc ca s thch ng gi

bloc 7.
Tnh cng nhc ca s thch ng lng

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Hnh ch gii thiu di dng tng trng cc mi quan h nhn qu, m chng ta tho lun cc phn sm hn ca tiu lun. Ch c cc t mc m ch n cc c ch phc hp, phc tp, nh mt s nhc nh, nhm tng quan ngn gn cc mi quan h. Hnh tuyt nhin khng y ; nhiu quan h nhn qu c m t trong tiu lun vng mt. Nh vy cng e rng hnh qu cht chi. Cng v mc ch d theo di cc mi tn tng trng cho cc tc ng nhn qu (tr hai mi tn) u ch theo mt hng, c th l t tri sang phi. y l chiu tc ng chnh. Tt nhin c cc phn tc ng. Th d, s tranh ua ca nhng ngi bn gy ra d nng lc, trong khi d nng lc kch thch s ganh ua. cho d xem chng ta b qua vic trnh by cc phn tc ng bng cc mi tn ngc chiu. Ti lu , rng chui nhn qu trn hnh 2.11 xut pht t cc yu t ging nhau bn tri v cui cng, bn phi, kt thc trong hai bloc: nn kinh t d tha trn th trng ca cc sn phm v cc dch v, v nn kinh t d tha trn th trng sc lao ng. Ni cch khc, nu chng ta kho st h thng t bn ch ngha, th n ng x nh nn kinh t d tha c hai th trng chnh ca lnh vc thc [ngoi tr lnh vc ti chnh]. Trong h thng, ng thi xut hin cng nhau cc nng lc d tha, hng d tr d tha v tht nghip, s khng s dng ht tim nng ca sc lao ng; c hai nhm hin tng c th c quy v cc nguyn nhn cn bn chung.105 Li tuyn b ny trc ht da trn dng t duy l thuyt c trnh by trong cc chng trc. Tnh ng n ca n c th c kim chng mt cch thc [kinh] nghim. S bc b n c ngha l, nu ng thi xut hin cc hin tng d cung ph bin, c cng mnh v bn vng trn th trng ca cc sn phm v cc dch v v cng khi c thiu ht sc lao ng ph bin, c cng mnh v bn vng. S c mt ng thi ca cc hin tng d tha-thiu ht c du ngc li khng c ngha l s bc b, nu cc hin tng nh, xut hin trong phm vi hp v tm thi. (Th d, trong nn kinh t d tha ph thng cng c th c thiu ht sc lao ng trong vi ngnh c bit.) Trong s cc nhn t gii thch d tha hnh 2.11 ch nhn mnh mt s nhn t, m gn trc tip vi h thng, tc l vi cc nhn ti, rng trong nc c ni n h thng t bn ch ngha hay x hi ch ngha ng tr. y l ch chnh ca tiu lun; ti mun lu bn c v im ny. Tt nhin vic ny khng c ngha, c nh ti ph nhn, rng cc nhn t khc cng c vai tr trong vic gy ra c cc hin tng d tha, ln thiu ht, m chng c tc ng c trong h thng x hi ch ngha, c trong h thng t bn ch ngha na.
y chng h l khng nh hin nhin. Trong tho lun kinh t v m, th d trong cuc tranh lun ang xy ra v cc nguyn nhn ca khng hong, chng hn c tranh lun v, liu trong nhnh i ln ca chu k s sng u t c dn n tai ha mun hn hay khng, hay s rt li ca cu i sc lao ng. C hai qu trnh u va trong khung kh c tiu lun ny phc ha, m v c hai qu trnh c ni n trong cc chng 2-4.
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(i) Thuc loi ny l cc hon cnh lin quan n ma st ca s thch ng, n s n khp ti, n cc thiu st thng tin, m chng c th gy ra c cc hin tng d cung ln cc hin tng d cu. ( chng trc, khi kho st th trng-sc lao ng ni v ti ny.) (ii) Chnh sch kinh t ca nh nc, trong trc ht l chnh sch ti kha v tin t, tc ng n cc qu trnh cung, cu v hnh thnh gi trong mi mi trng x hi-kinh t. Mc d trong mi h thng c tc ng nh vy, c s khc bit ct yu gia h thng x hi ch ngha v t bn ch ngha, rng cc tc ng ny c hiu lc theo cch no, thng qua cc tuyn truyn dn no, vi sc mnh ra sao. Nh trong dn nhp ti thng bo: tiu lun hin thi chm n ch quan trng ny ch vi ni, nhng khng tho lun n cn k. Dng ngn ng hnh thc ca hnh 2.10 chng ta c th ni: nhm nhn t (i) c tc ng n chuyn ci bao nm u. Ma st cng nh, s thch ng cng trn tru, th ton b cm cng ti gn hai ng gch-gch, m tng trng cho cc tiu ca thiu ht v d tha trong th gii thc. Ch trong th gii tng tng ca cc m hnh l thuyt chng ta c th ti v tr thiu ht bng khng, d tha bng khng, im cn bng walrasian ti gc trc ta . Nhm nhn t (ii), tc ng ca chnh sch kinh t ca nh nc, c th dch chuyn ci bao theo hng no v iu ny tt nhin l rt quan trng.106 (Ti cn quay li im ny mt cch ngn gn trong chng xem xt cc trng hp c bit.) Th d, trong nn kinh t d tha c trng cho h thng t bn ch ngha n c th tng cng cc kinh t d tha, trong khi cc hin tng thiu ht yu i (ci bao trt v bn phi mt cht) hay ngc li. Nhng chnh sch kinh t khng c kh nng qung nn kinh t sang phn nm trn ng 45 , tc l bin n thnh nn kinh t thiu ht. lm vic ny cn n s thay i h thng, loi thay i, nh xy ra nc Nga sa hong nm 1917, hay ng -u (k c ng-c) sau chin tranh th gii ln th hai. Cho vic ny cn s thay i trit bloc 1: u th ca s hu cng v iu phi quan liu phi th ch cho u th ca s hu t nhn v iu phi th trng. V tng t, chng chnh sch ti kha v tin t no c kh nng qung ci bao-nn kinh t thiu ht xung phn di ca ng 45 . Cho vic ny cn n s thay i c tc ng su sc theo chiu ngc li: phi to ra bloc 1 c th thy trn hnh 2.11: s p o ca s hu t nhn v th trng.

Leijonhufvud (1973, 2009) trong cc bi bo ca mnh, dng n d khc, nhng trnh by tng tng t, khi ng lp lun: nn kinh t v m c th di chuyn bn trong mt hnh lang. Th nhng nu chnh sch kinh t v m th s di chuyn c quy m ln, th nn kinh t va vo tng ca hnh lang. Vic vt ra khi hnh lang i cng vi nhng hu qu nghim trng. Dng t duy ca Leijonhufvud cho thy quan h h hng vi cc lp lun ca tiu lun ny c im, rng ng khng t mt im cn bng ni bt vo trung tm ca kho st, m ghi nhn, rng cc c trng trng thi ca th trng c th ly bt c gi tr no bn trong mt min c xc nh, (bn trong cc bc tng ca hnh lang).

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Cc thin hng di truyn Mc d ti c gng din t mt cch thn trng, bn c c l c th lc ra t m t cc chui nhn qu, c nh ti khng nh: y cc mi quan h tt nh lng l trc mt ti. Nu cho trc cc gi tr bng s ca cc bin s gii thch, th chng s xc nh gi tr bng s ca bin s cn gii thch. C l ti chng cn ni, rng li gii thch c n gin ha n nh vy chng h c trong u ti. Trong tiu lun ny v trong cc cng trnh sm hn ca ti xut hin nhiu ln loi cm t: cc tnh cht ca h thng x hi ch ngha hay t bn ch ngha. Thc ra tnh cht c th h thng l thin hng. i loi nh thin hng di truyn, vn c ca con ngi. Th d, vi tui tc cc mch mu ca chng ta c thin hng b vi ha v cn lng ng hnh thnh trn thnh mch mu. Thin hng ny mnh n u cn ty vo tng ngi. Chng ta khng b ph mc cho s phn; cc thi quen n ung, v cc yu t khc ca cch sng nh hng n qu trnh ny nhanh hay chm n mc no. Th nhng thin hng c cy vo m di truyn c k tha. Ngay c bn trong thi k stalinist-maoist chng phi tt c cc nc x hi ch ngha c s tp trung quan liu mnh nh nhau v n c thc hin theo nhiu bin th khc nhau th nhng thin hng tp trung quan liu c m ha. C th c dn ra v mt logic v c th chng minh v mt kinh nghim, rng c quyn quyn lc, h thng c ng v vai tr thng tr ca s hu nh nc nht thit to ra s tp trung quan liu. C th chng li thin hng, nhng khng c thng li cui cng. minh ha by gi ti khng nu cc thin hng vn c ca mi con ngi, m l mt hin tng c phm vi hp hn, cc thin hng c di truyn t ng b cha m. Hy ngh n mt ngi c th, m chng ta bit, rng b m, ng b v gia cc anh ch em ca ngi rt nhiu ngi mc bnh tim mch. Lc nh vy b tnh n chuyn: c th l, ngi y c thin hng c di truyn i vi bnh ny. Chng ta c th coi tuyn b ny nh mt d bo ngu nhin, tc l xc sut ngi xut pht vi tnh di truyn nh th s b cn bnh ny l cao hn mc trung bnh. Nu ni chung c nhn t ri ro nh vy, th chng ta ng tnh n chuyn, rng bng cch no c th ginh thng li cui cng i vi n. Ai ch n cch n, chuyn ng nhiu, khng ht thuc l, khng sng qu thng xuyn vi stress, ngi chin u c kt qu chng cc thin hng b bnh tim mch. Nhng nu chnh mng trong cuc chin mi him nguy li tng ln.

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Theo ngha ny chng ta c th coi li cnh ti hp hn ca tiu lun cc tnh cht c th h thng ca ch ngha t bn l thin hng. Thin hng hoc bng pht vi ton b sc lc, hoc c th b cc nhn t khc nhau (tnh im m ca cc nh quyt nh, cc chun mc o c ca x hi, cc quy nh php lut hay nhng can thip n l ca nh nc) kim ch, km hm.107 Nhng ngay c khi cc lc bn nng ni ti vn tc ng; c s gim st x hi, c iu tit nh nc cng chng th tiu dit c thin hng. N c trong cc gen ca ch ngha t bn. Hy xem mt vi th d, trong nhm ch ca tiu lun. C thin hng kinh doanh trong cc gen ca ch ngha t bn. Tinh thn kinh doanh c th b lm ngui lnh bi cc hn ch quan liu, bi h thng thu ging xung gii kinh doanh, bi s eo hp tn dng sau suy thoi vn vn. Nhng chng no cn ch ngha t bn, th thin hng kinh doanh cn hi sinh. Trong cc gen ca ch ngha t bn c mc lc ca ngi s dng lao ng i u vi cc n lc i tng lng ca ngi lao ng. Ch v li ch ring ca mnh cng b ngi s dng lao ng tr lng hiu qu cho mt tng lp c tng thng. C th v mt c nhn l ngi rt tt bng v chi tiu nhiu cho mc ch t thin, trong gip nhng ngi ngho. Nhng trong vai tr ngi s dng lao ng th thi t nhin l, phi gi cc chi ph lng khi b sng. (iu ny khng hin nhin. Lnh t trn p t ng x ny cho gim c h tin trong x hi ch ngha). hiu hot ng ca cc t chc qun chng, ca cc h thng v cc h thng con, th s phn bit thin hng v s th hin ca thin hng l cng c phn tch rt quan trng. Ti mun nhn mnh iu ny c bit cho nhng ngi quen m t cc quan h gia cc t chc kinh t v cc c nhn bng cc mi quan h ton hc gia cc bin s ca mt m hnh ton hc. Nu, th d, chng ta lp m hnh ng x ca ngi nghin bia-ru, th chng ta c th ni: s bia tiu th hng ngy X, l mt s khng m. C mt cn trn, m do cc nhn t sinh hc xc nh: chng bng ai c th cha n hai mi chai bia. Nhng bn trong m hnh ng ca ngi nghin bia ru khng quan trng l, bin s X tng t 0 ln 10, hay trng thi xut pht l 10, v gim t ngt hay t t xung 0. Th m chng ta bit, rng qu trnh nghin v cai nghin l hon ton khc, n l khc v quay li li khc na. Cc m hnh kinh t hc chun khng nm bt c iu ny. Kinh t hc ng x (behavioral economics) chng minh bng cc th nghim tm l hc ng ch , rng con ngi nh gi vic a thm 100 dollar vo ti sn n nay ca mnh theo cch khc v s thit hi, s

107

y ti li nhc n cun sch ca Akerlof Shiller (2009) v hin tng, m Keynes gi l animal spirit (th tnh). Hin tng tm l hc ny theo gii ngha ca hai tc gi, nhn t nhiu quan im chng ln ln (tuy khng hon ton trng vi) khi nim, m ti gi y l thin hng c tnh c th h thng.

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gim 100 dollar ca ci, theo cch khc na. Hin tng c bit n di ci tn ght tn tht-loss aversion trong cc ti liu ca kinh t hc ng x. (Kahnemann v Tversky, 1979, 1991, McGraw v cc cng s, 2010). S nhn bit ny tuy vy khng thm nhim vo t duy kinh t vi m v v m ca nh kinh t hc. Trong dng t duy ca tiu lun hin thi s nhn bit ny ng vai tr then cht. Ti gi bn c nh li, hin tng ny xut hin trong bi cnh no. S ph hy sng to schumpeterian. S sng to xy ra vi ln; nhng ngi thc y n, tm thy nim vui trong sng to v cng thy li ch vt cht trong . S ph hy din ra mt cch cay ng. Nhng ngi thua chng c, cng gn b v mt tnh cm vi ci cn mt i, v cc li ch vt cht ca h (hay o tng ca h, rng y l li ch ca h), ch t mt cch qu , cng gn vi vic duy tr ci cn c ph hy. Trong tranh ua, ngi chin thng, hay ch t t v tr kh hn, chng hn bng vic gia tng th phn, cm thy vui. Kht vng bnh trng l mt lc thc y rt mnh. Ngc li, v phn ngi thua, vic t b v tr khng xy ra mt cch t ng, nh vo cui trn u th thao. Ngi chi ti hn, khng rt lui khi lnh vc c chinh phc n nay mc, nh mc m i th c thnh tch tt hn chim c lnh vc mi. V th m d tha ny sinh, cha k v cc th khc. Trong nn kinh t th trng t bn ch ngha vic tng gi khng lm cho doanh nghip quyt nh gi b au tim cho, ng hn lm cho n vui sng vi hy vng li nhun. Ngc li, vic gim gi l cm gic kh chu, kh quyt tm hn lm vic ny. Gi l cng hn theo chiu xung, so vi chiu ln. Loi bt i xng ny cng l mt trong nhng l do gii thch cho s ny sinh d tha. Vi trang trc ti nhn mnh, rng trng thi ca th trng xt xu hng lu di c c trng bi s bt i xng. iu ny c gii thch khng hon ton ton b, nhng mt phn ng k, bi hin tng (ght tn tht) c phc ha trn. Thin hng ko theo mt hng, v mc d khng phi l khng th hnh ng theo hng ngc vi thin hng nhng phi lm vic ny i ngc vi cc lc thc y t nhin, v nhiu khi ch thnh cng na vi. Dng t duy trn cng c cc h ly thc tin quan trng. Chng ta phi bit, hin tng hay qu trnh no xut hin di s tc ng ca thin hng vn c, di truyn v hin tng no l hin tng ch do hnh trng ring bit ca cc hon cnh gy ra. Cng chng phi khng quan trng, thin hng mnh n u. Nu nh nc hay t chc khc th tc ng chng li thin hng t pht mnh no , (v vic ny trong nhiu loi trng hp c th c l do rt chnh ng!), th hy lm vic 148

m khng c cc o tng. Khng c hn ch php lut, hay s can thip nh nc no, m th hn ch thin hng mnh ca mt s ngi, li khng b nhng ngi th lch.

2.6 Tc ng v s nh gi ca nn kinh t d tha

Tm tt cc tc ng v phn xt gi tr Cc chng 2.2-2.5 ca tiu lun xem xt h thng nn kinh t d tha v cc yu t nhn qu gy ra hin tng. By gi chng ta chuyn sang xem xt cc h qu. Ti vn tip tc c gng trong chng mc c th tch bch vic m t khch quan cc tc ng vi s pht xt gi tr nh gi cc tc ng. Cc vic sau khng th trnh khi l ch quan, bi v n nu ng sau mi s nh gi l thang gi tr ring ca ngi nh gi. Trong khun kh tng quan mi mc ti s by t nh gi ca ti trc c gi. Bn cnh ti cng gii thiu nhng nh gi khc vi nh gi ca ti, ch yu l cc nh gi, m c ting ni trong cc tho lun cng khai, v nh hng rt mnh n kin ca nhiu ngi. V cc mi quan h nhn qu mt thit (xem hnh 2.11) kh tch bch, tc ng no c th coi l ca h thng t bn ch ngha ni chung, v tc ng no l tc ng do tnh cht kinh t d tha ca th trng gy ra mt cch c bit. Trong cc lp lun tip theo ti mun tp trung vo nhng ci sau. Tip theo khng phi l mt nh gi tm tt v ch ngha t bn, m l ti hp hn nhiu: xem xt v nh gi tc ng nn kinh t d tha (cnh tranh ca nhng ngi bn, cc nng lc d v hng d tr d, d tha sc lao ng v cc hin tng d tha khc c tho lun n y trong tiu lun). Vic ny gii thch v sao cc vn quan trng cn bn nh dn ch, cc quyn con ngi, tnh hp hin li khng c phn tch. Cc vn ny tuy c quan h mt thit vi s hin din ca s hu t nhn v nn kinh t th trng, nhng khng gn trc tip vi ti ca tiu lun ny, vi nn kinh t d tha.

i mi sng to C lng ti liu phong ph bn v cc nhn t thc y v cn tr i mi sng to.108 C s thng nht rng ri, rng kch thch quan trng nht ca hot ng i mi l cnh tranh.

108

Khng nghi ng g, cc ng trnh ca Schumpeter (1980)[1912] v (2010)[1942] c tc ng ln nht trong lnh vc ny, nhng ngoi ng ra nhng ngi khc cng gp phn vo s hiu qu trnh i mi sng to. Tiu lun ca ti c tiu i mi v Tnh nng ng tng quan cc cng trnh quan trng nht; ti y ti khng lp li cc dn chiu c th thy , (Kornai, 2010).

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Cnh tranh gia nhng ngi sn xut (v c bit l hnh thc ph bin nht ca n, cnh tranh c tnh c quyn) to ra d tha. Cnh tranh cng l nguyn nhn ca s ny sinh d tha, nhng cng l h qu ca n. Chnh v nh sn xut mun tn dng nng lc tt hn, v v ngi bn mun bn nhiu hn lng hng tn trong kho ca mnh, c chinh phc ngi mua khi i th ca mnh bng cc sn phm mi, cc dch v mi. V mt logic c th d thy: nu khng c d tha, th gia nhng ngi bn khng c cnh tranh. ni nh sn xut v ngi bn hng khng cm thy p lc ca d tha c th bn c, th kht vng (drive) ny khng c hiu lc. V sao ngnh t hay in thoi ca h thng x hi ch ngha li phi xem xt vic i mi, nu nhng ngi mua vn xp hng di v t hay ng in thoi c trnh k thut lc hu? Nhng ngi hng li ca s hin i ha v bo xy ra trong nn kinh t d tha l nhng ngi, m cc thnh tu k thut mi lm cho cuc sng ca h tin nghi hn, thoi mi hn, l th hn v nng sut hn, v nhng ngi c th mua chng vi gi ngy cng r hn sau s ph bin hng lot ca sng kin, sau cc t gim gi t t sau gi cao lc ban u. Cc phn trc ca tiu lun trnh by chi tit cc tng ny. y, s d khi bt u nh gi nn kinh t d tha ti nhc li chng, v theo thang gi tr ca ring ti y l li th kinh t s mt, quan trng nht ca nn kinh t d tha ngc vi nn kinh t thiu ht. Khng phi mi ngi u chia s nh gi ny. Nhiu ngi s dng cm t x hi tiu th vi ngha xu. H cm thy mt trong nhng biu hin c trng nht ca x hi tiu th, dng chy khng ngng ca cc sn phm v dch v mi v mi hn, l tha v gy bc tc. Ti khng khng nh, rng qu trnh i mi khng c cc mt tri ca n. Kh theo kp n. Mt mi khi phi lin tc xem cc ch dn s dng mi, trong khi ci c chng ta vn cha hc c ht. Mi ngi hy t quyt nh, s hng th thnh tch i mi c b cng mt nhc m mi ngi bn v ngi tiu dng phi chu hay khng! Khng th chi ci, rng i mi v tin b k thut ni chung i cng nhng him nguy; cng c th s dng cc i mi k thut cho cc mc ch c hi na. Nhn li, c th ni iu ny i mi mi i mi do con ngi sng to ra chng ta phi hnh thnh thang gi tr ca mnh vi nhn thc nh vy.

Quyn t ch ca ngi tiu dng v s thao tng ngi tiu dng S hin din ca cc lng hng d tr cn thit v ca cc nng lc d tr sn sng ngay, d huy ng lm cho c th, rng ngi tiu dng la chn ty thch v t chi ci khng thc s thch. Kh nng la chn rng hn c nn kinh t d tha m bo khng l hin 150

tng thng mi theo ngha hp n m rng cc quyn t do ca con ngi trong cc chiu kch quan trng. Ngc li, trong nn kinh t thiu ht khng c nhiu kh nng la chn, nhiu s thay th bt buc lm gim cm gic tha mn do tiu dng mang li. Ngoi thit hi vt cht, kh nng la chn eo hp, v vi n cc quyn con ngi cng b hp li. Nh sn xut-cung cp mun tn dng cng tt nng lc, ngi bn mun bn nhiu hn lng hng d tr s hin din ca d tha buc h phi thch ng vi nhng ngi tiu dng, vi nhng ngi mua. Bi v cn thi gian cho vic thch ng bn vng ca sn xut i vi nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng xy ra trong trung hay di hn, cc lng hng d tr v cc nng lc cha c dng, c th d dng huy ng gip khc phc s chm tr. S d tha l cht bi trn, lm gim hay loi b ting lo xo trong b my thch ng. Ti khng mun l tng ha quan h tn ti gia ngi mua v ngi bn trong nn kinh t d tha. Nhng ngi khng nh, rng trong nn kinh t d tha (hay din t cn tng qut hn: trong nn kinh t th trng) quyn t ch ngi tiu dng c hiu lc, l nhng ngi ni qu. Ngi l thuc ngoan ngon vng li k thng tr c ch quyn tht mt cch v iu kin. Khng c chuyn ny y. Trc ht s d khng, bi v cung thng xuyn nh thc cc nhu cu, c bit i vi cc sn phm v dch v mi. Th n v iu ny thuc v s y ca bc tranh nhng ngi bn c gng nh hng mt cch tch cc n s thch ca ngi mua. C nhiu s tht trong chuyn, rng vi cc qung co ca mnh nhng ngi bn khng nhng thng tin cho ngi mua, (s cung cp thng tin r rng l hu ch), nhng h cng th thao tng ngi mua na. Trong nn kinh t thiu ht qung co l s lng ph v ngha, nhng l hin tng ph khng th trnh khi ca nn kinh t d tha. Ai coi nn kinh t d tha v cc l do khc l thun li hn nn kinh t thiu ht, th ngi phi nhn bit rng dng l qung co gn lin vi n mt cch khng th trnh khi, cc chin dch qung co nhiu khi ng n, nhng khng t khi nh lc hng, l cc th thut bn hng cu ngi mua n vi mnh. Chi ph qung co l khng l mc x hi, nh bng 2.8 minh ha trn th d ca mt s nc. Cc chi ph qung co Hoa K trong cc nm 2000 u vt 2 phn trm ca GDP. Chng ta c th thy ln khng l ca chi ph ny, nu so snh vi vi khon chi ca nh nc M. Tng chi ph cho gio dc cao ng i hc ca chnh ph lin bang v a phng nm 2007 l 2 phn trm GDP, cho chng trnh tr gip cc h gia nh v tr em l 0,6 phn trm GDP 0,6, cho cnh st v cu ha l 1 phn trm GDP (Chantrill, 2010).

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Bng 2.8 Chi ph qung co trong vi nc pht trin, 19752007

Chi ph qung co so vi tng sn phm quc ni, phn trm v 1975 1985 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 Argentina n. a. n. a. n. a. 1,20 1,79 1,99 2,10 Nht Bn 0,83 1,08 1,10 1,22 1,36 1,37 1,36 n. a. n. a. n. a. 0,69 0,60 0,60 0,61 New-Zeland n. a. n. a. n. a. 1,34 1,41 1,33 1,33 Hoa K 1,70 2,25 2,20 2,52 2,18 2,14 2,03

Ngun: Tng sn phm quc ni: International Monetary Fund (2010), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2010); cc chi ph do qung co gy ra: WARC (2007), CS Ad Dataset (2007), Dentsu (2009). Ch thch: cc chi ph do qung co gy ra bao gm cc chi ph i cng vi qun co trn bo, tp ch, pht thanh, truyn hnh, bu in, bng qung co, Internet v cc dng khc. Khng thnh cng xc nh, rng liu cc s liu c cng b y c thc s bao hm ton b mi thnh phn ca chi ph qung co hay khng.

Cng chng ng i qu xa trong lp lun theo hng ny, v khng nh, rng thc t nh sn xut l ngi t ch. S thao tng ngi mua c kho n th no, nu c d tha, th cui cng ngi mua vn c cch t chi sn phm hay dch v c cho mi, v chn ci thc thay cho n. Vi li ca Albert Hirschman: c li ra (exit), ngi mua khng cn phi ln ting phn i n gin chuyn sang ngi bn khc (Hirschman, 1995 [1970]). V th, nu chng ta vay mn cc cch gi tn ca t in cai tr chnh tr, chng ta c th c trng tng quan lc lng ca nn kinh t d tha th ny: nu ngi tiu dng khng l nh cai tr c ch quyn tuyt i tht s, nhng l tng thng cng ha mnh, ngi c nh hng ln n cc quyt nh v bit dng quyn ph quyt ca mnh. Ngc li, trong nn kinh t thiu ht khng c li ra: ngi mua l k l thuc, b ph mc cho nh sn xutngi bn c v tr thng tr. S thiu ht cng mnh, s khng c bo v cng ln. Phn tch cp i lp nn kinh t d thann kinh t thiu ht chng ta phi thy: y rt cuc l v tng quan lc lng, l v cc loi khc nhau ca s phn trn-di.

Nng sut lao ng, s iu phi Ci ti va ni v s bi trn b my thch ng ln nhau gia nh sn xut v ngi tiu dng, cng c hiu lc i vi cc mi quan h bn trong vic sn xut. Trong mi h thng xy ra nhng rc ri v cung ng nguyn vt liu v linh kin, mt s u vo khng n tay

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ngi s dng kp thi, xy ra nhng s sut con ngi v s v k lut. Th nhng cc lng hng d tr v cc nng lc cha c dng, c th huy ng c, c mt khp ni trong nn kinh t d tha c th to thun li cho vic khc phc cc trc trc. Tt c nhng ngi lm trong sn xut (d l th trng, d l ngi lao ng c phn cng), nhng ngi c cch so snh th d vic sn xut hng ngy trong cc doanh nghip nh nc ca ch ngha x hi v trong cc doanh nghip t nhn ca ch ngha t bn, c th thy nhng s khc bit (xem bng 2.3 v hnh 2.5 phn trc ca tiu lun). Hot ng ca nn kinh t d tha linh hot hn, trn tru hn, tri chy hn, so vi hot ng ca nn kinh t thiu ht cng nhc hn nhiu, b quy ry nhiu ln bi cc hin tng thiu ht. Chc l s khc bit c ng gp cho s tng nng sut ca h thng t bn ch ngha. Th nhng theo tinh thn khch quan phi ni thm: c bi trn cn phi gim mt lng t bn ln di dng cc hng d tr v cc nng lc cha c s dng. Nhiu ngi cm thy c cm v coi mt cch bn nng s ghim vn ny l s lng ph. Vi s gip ca cc m hnh vn tr hc c th chun b cc tnh ton mc doanh nghip, trong i snh mt mt l chi ph ca vic gim gi hng d tr v nng lc d phng, v mt khc l cc tn tht do cc trc trc bt ng ca vic cung ng u vo, cng nh ca vic khng phc v c nhng ngi mua gy ra. Theo ti bit cho n nay ngi ta cha tin hnh cc tnh ton loi ny lin quan n ton b nn kinh t. Cc tnh cht tng qut ca cc h thng kinh t khng hnh thnh trn c s nhng tnh ton cn nhc vn tr hc chnh xc. Du ngi t tnh cc tnh ton chi phli ch ca nn kinh t d tha theo thang gi tr ring ca mnh, thy rng vic ghim gi cc lng hng d tr ln v cc nng lc cha dng c hon vn, hay du i n kt lun ngc li th bn cht ca nn kinh t d tha t bn ch ngha vn l tch t cc lng hng d tr ln, v vn phn ng k nng lc khng c s dng.

S thch nghi cc phn trn ti ni ring v quan h ca nh sn xut v ngi tiu dng (ngi tiu dng c hiu l c nhn, cng nh h gia nh) v ring v tng tc ln nhau gia cc nh sn xut. By gi chng ta xem xt ton b s hp tc ca tt c nhng ngi tham gia nn kinh t. Trong nn kinh t thiu ht cng tn ti s iu phi mt cch kh-hay ti; s thc trn tri l n c kh nng tn ti hng thp k, chng minh s thc ny. Mt trong cc li th chnh ca nn kinh t d tha l, s iu phi nu trong vn c cc va chm vn trn tru hn, nhanh nhy hn, linh hot hn s thch ng cng nhc, trc 153

trc v chm chp trong nn kinh t thiu ht. Nhiu tn ca ch ngha t bn coi vai tr cn i, iu phi l c hnh quan trng nht ca nn kinh t th trng, thm ch nhng ngi nhit thnh nht hu nh y l li gii thch v tnh tt lnh ca nn kinh t th trng. Vi ti khng phi tnh linh hot ca s thch ng tnh ng hng u, m l tnh nng ng ca nn kinh t d tha, thin hng khng th cng c i vi i mi sng to nhng du sao ti cng nh gi cc tnh cht thch ng thun li l c hnh quan trng.

S bnh ng Trong nn kinh t d tha s bt bnh ng v phn chia thu nhp v ca ci th hin cng khai. Bng tin mi ngi c th mua th g v bao nhiu m mnh mun v c kh nng v vui lng chi tr. Ti tin ring l ci xc nh gii hn vic mua ngi c t tin c th mua t hn. So vi tnh hnh ny nn kinh t thiu ht c tc ng co bng. Tt nhin khng c chuyn bnh qun ch ngha trit . Nhiu nhn t tc ng chng li s co bng hon ton. Bn thn s phn phi thu nhp l khng ng u. S thc hnh tht ca nn kinh t x hi ch ngha c gng mt cch ch n s phn bit thu nhp v nhiu loi mc ch: v s kch thch thnh tch, s tng thng cho vic phng s v lng trung thnh chnh tr vn vn. Nh th y quy tc, ngi c nhiu tin hn c th mua nhiu hn, cng ng. Ngoi ra s khng ng u cng th hin khng ch vic mua bng tin. ni s phn b c tin hnh bng phng php phn phi (th d phn phi nh hay cc mt hng khan him), mt cch cng khai hay che y ngi ta thin v cho nhng ngi gn gi vi ng thng tr, v nhng ngi c nh hng ln. Th nhng nu du c s khng ng u trong thu nhp v vic tip cn n ca ci, n thng nh hn rt nhiu so vi a phn cc nc t bn ch ngha. V th ny sinh n tng (khng chnh xc, nhng cng khng hon ton sai), rng trong nn kinh t thiu ht c t, nhng mi ngi u c phn. Chnh sch gi gia trng ca nh nc v s ti tr ca nh nc cho cc khu vc phc li c tc ng co bng, m rt cuc l s ti phn phi thu nhp. Trong nn kinh t thiu ht trn thc t mi ngi u c hng gio dc cng min ph, chm sc sc khe min ph c cc tng lp ngho cng c hng cc dch v ny, m trong mt nn kinh t th trng tinh khit h khng c kh nng chi tr gi ca dch v.109 Vi s bao cp ln ca

109

Trong chng 2.7 s bn v nh nc phc li xut hin gia cc khung kh ca ch ngha t bn hin i.

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nh nc ngi ta gi gi nh v cc gi thc phm quan trng nht mc thp vic ny cng lm cho cuc sng ca nhng ngi c thu nhp thp d dng hn. Tuy vy xut hin mt cch hin nhin cc h qu trong trng thi chung ca th trng: xut hin cc hin tng thiu ht nghim trng v cc sn phm hay c bit c chia chc min ph hay gn nh min ph. Ci gi ca s bnh ng ln hn l s thiu ht c cng ln. V di hn nn kinh t thiu ht bnh qun hn nn kinh t d tha nhng bn thn vic ti phn phi thu nhp nhm bnh ng ha cng kch thch thiu ht. Vt cht ha v cc gi tr tinh thn Ngi ta thng ln n nn kinh t d tha (hay x hi tiu th c nhc ti vi tn gi mo m), rng n vt cht ha suy ngh ca con ngi.110 Cc chin dch qung co, cc trung tm bn hng y p hng, nhiu sn phm mi ph trng ch to ra thang gi tr mo m, v khin ngi ta mt thi quen tn trng cc gi tr tinh thn. Ti phi chuyn vic kho st c nhu cu khoa hc ca vn ny cho cc nh x hi hc. Tuy nhin ti nh liu a ra vi nhn xt da trn s quan st nn kinh t d tha v nn kinh t thiu ht. Trong cc nm 1970 ti thy cc b lao b vo nhau v tm tc nhau trong mt nh hng bch ha Moscow, ni khi mt l hng giy va n. C l cc b t quan tm hn n vic kim c mt vt, i giy, so vi cc b hin nay thoi mi la chn gia nhiu (qu nhiu) giy cng trong ca hng bch ha nhiu ca hiu cnh tranh nhau cho bn giy? Hay chng ta c th nhc n cc th d lch s nhc nhi hn. Hng triu ngi, nhng ngi b cht bi c ging tn nhn nht ca nn kinh t thiu ht Ukrain thi Stalin hay Trung Quc vi thp nin mun hn thi Mao, bi nn i, t quan tm hn n cc th vt cht, thc la, bt, khoai ty, bnh m, v ng hn quay v cc gi tr tinh thn hn l cc hu du ca h ngy nay, m cc th vt cht y c th mua c?111 Nu ni chung c loi quan h nhn qu no gia trng thi ca th trng (nn kinh t d tha versus nn kinh t thiu ht) v s vt cht ha, th c l c th l nh sau. Bn
110

a phn cc nh lch s t tng kinh t truy nguyn tro lu ph phn ny ca ch ngha t bn, m c nhiu loi r nhnh, v n tc phm c nh hng ln ca Thorstein Veblen (Veblen 1994 [1899] v cun sch ca Galbraith (1958). Cc ph phn loi ny gn cho ch ngha t bn, cng nh tinh thn ca n bng nhiu ci tn khc nhau: ch ngha tiu dng-consumerism, ch ngha t bn tiu th, ch ngha duy vt kinh t, x hi giauf c (affluent society), homo consumericus, ch ngha trng thng-commercialism v vn vn. 111 Trong tiu lun ca Thomas Mann vit v Chekhov (1963, tr. 440) trch dn nh vn Nga v i. Chekhov, trong tm hn u tranh vi th gii t duy ca nh tin tri cu tinh, ca Tolstoj, vit th ny: ...u c tnh to v cng l gi , rng trong tin b v trong cn gin c nhiu tnh yu hn rt nhiu i vi con ngi, so vi trong cch sng trinh bch v trong vic king n tht.

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cnh cc nhn t khc, nn kinh t d tha ng gp vo s truyn b thng tin, vo s pht trin ca cc cng c o to hin i. (V chuyn ny c ni n trong phn trc y ca tiu lun.) Ai kht khao cc gi tr tinh thn, tin tc, ngi c th la chn gia cc cng c, m chng chuyn ti cc thng tin ny cho mnh, v hin nay c th cn nhiu hn thi xa. S d tha cc hng tn v cc nng lc cha c s dng bn thn chng bao gm c cc hng tn trong kho ca cc nh xut bn v cc hiu sch, cung ca cc i pht thanh v truyn hnh hay lng thng tin hu nh v tn trn Internet. C d cung v tt c cc th ny: c cc th c gi tr ln rc ri.

Hng ca tham nhng C tham nhng trong mi x hi. Nhiu loi nhn t nh hng n tn sut, tnh nghim trng ca cc s kin tham nhng, n cc hnh thc tham nhng.112 y ti cng chng nu ra cu hi khng th tr li c, liu tham nhng trong ch ngha t bn c nhiu hn hay t hn trong ch ngha x hi. Ti ch hn ch ring ci gn trc tip vi i tng ca tiu lun, c th l: trng thi chung ca th trng c tc ng hay khng kha cnh ny? C. Ai t lt ai? iu ny ph thuc vo ci g c trng cho th trng, nn kinh t d tha hay nn kinh t thiu ht. Chng ta c th ni vi s n gin ha mnh: trong nn kinh t thiu ht ngi mua th bng nhiu cch, trong bng c cng c tham nhng, nh hng n ngi bn. Trong nn kinh t d tha chiu quay ngc li: ngoi cc th khc ngi bn dng c cc cng c tham nhng thu ht ngi mua. Cc s kin tham nhng c trng ca nn kinh t thiu ht a phn l cc v khng ng k. B ni tr di tin vo ti th tht c c ming tht ngon hn. Trng hp nghim trng hn th, khi ngi chy vt t ca doanh nghip t lt quan chc ca hng bn, cp vt t hay bn thnh phm eo hp cho doanh nghip mnh, ch khng phi cho doanh nghip khc. Ai cng bit, rng cc doanh nghip x vit c cc chuyn gia chuyn chy vic ny. Nhng v tham nhng nh s d vn l bt thng nghim trng, v chng xy ra hng lot. Ngc li, s cm d tham nhng l rt mnh trong nn kinh t d tha, c bit khi ngi bn v li ch c nhn mun kim ngi mua, v ngi mua tiu tin cng qu. y khng phi l cc khon tin nh, bi v hng t c th chy t tin ca nhng ngi ng
112

Collegium Budapest mi nhm nghin cu lin ngnh nm 20022003, do Susan Rose-Ackerman v ti lnh o. ti nghin cu l: Tnh chnh trc v lng tin di nh sng ca chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha. 40 tiu lun bo co v cc kt qu ca chng ti, c tp hp trong hai tp (KornaiRose-Ackerman, 2005 v KornaiRothsteinRose-Ackerman, 2005). Cc ti liu tham kho chi tit ca vn c th thy trong hai tp y.

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thu vo kt ca hng t nhn. Nh th t ra rt c li chi hng triu cho quan chc nh nc c thm quyn hay c quan nh nc khc xut hin vi t cch ngi mua, doanh nghip mnh ch khng phi hng i th nhn c n hng nh nc. i vi ngi bn, y ch l vi phn trm ca doanh v hng t, nhng i vi i din c t lt ca c quan mua l ti sn ln. Lun c nhng ngi c thin hng tham nhng mi ni v mi lc. Ci cn phi pht hin ra y l, tnh th quyn r vi sc mnh to ln n vy cho vic thc hin tham nhng. Sm hn ti ni v cc cng trng ln lao ca cnh tranh gia nhng ngi bn. Thy cha, cng chnh s cnh tranh ny to ra s cm d tham nhng na.

Cc li th v bt li ca cnh tranh t bn ch ngha qua th d ca ngnh t Qua th d lch schnh sch kinh t, qua s pht trin xy ra cc thp nin va qua trong nghnh t th gii, ti mun minh ha cc din gii trn, s xem xt cng nhau cc li th v bt li ca nn kinh t d tha v ca cnh tranh t bn ch ngha.113 T lu hnh thnh nng lc d tha ng k trong tt c cc nc sn xut t. T hnh 2.12 c th thy, mc khng s dng nng lc dao ng gia 12 v 27 phn trm v trong giai on gia 1990 v 2008 cho thy xu hng tng ln; chng ta c th c quyn ni v d nng lc kinh nin. Hnh 2.12 Nng lc d tha trong ngnh t

Ngun: Francas et al. (2009), 2. old. Ch thch: Hnh lin quan n ngnh cng nghip t th gii, chnh xc hn l xe c nh bn trong . chu u xe c trng lng di 3,5 tn c lit vo loi ny.

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C th thy s gii thiu tng qut th d trong cc cng trnh sau y Haugh et al. (2010), OECD (2009) v Orsato Wells (2006).

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Lng khng l t tn kho tch t cc bi cha ca cc nh my v ca cc hng bn t.114 Tt c mi ngi trong nhng ngi phn tch ngnh ny u bit v d nng lc khng l v lng hng tn khng bn c, bi v cc nh phn tch ngnh t nhiu ln dng cc hi chung bo ng. Hy ng ln hnh 2.13. Hnh 2.13. kin ca cc lnh o nghnh t v d nng lc ton cu, 2006-2008

Ngun: KPMG (2009), tr. 15. Ch thch: Trn trc honh nh lnh o ngnh t c hi a ra c lng ca mnh v mc d nng lc trong nm c hi. Trc tung gii thiu phn b ca cc c lng. Th d, nm 2007 c 32% s ngi c hi cho rng mc d nng lc l 11-20 %.

Mc d cc lnh o ca cc nh my t bit rt r, rng quy m th gii d nng lc rt ln, h vn chng c kh nng lm ch trn thin hng bnh trng ca mnh. hnh thnh cc nng lc mi v mi hn; mi doanh nghip u hy vng, rng chnh doanh nghip mnh s c kh nng chinh phc mt phn th trng t cc i th ca mnh. Cho n khi xy ra suy thoi 2008, ngnh t c bit Hoa K tr thnh ngnh khng hong chnh ca cuc khng hong th gii. Bi v s sa st sn xut ca ngnh t i cng vi cc tc ng h s nhn mnh, v cc nh cung cp, v cc nh cung cp ca cc nh cung cp, nhng ngi tham gia vo cc chui bn hng chim phn ng k ca ton b nn kinh t, p lc l rt mnh tr gip cch
Trong khi c trng chnh ca ngnh t l d tha, trn th trng vn phi i nhiu thng n hng v mt s loi t xa x c thc hin. Tnh hnh ny minh ha tt cho nhng iu c vit trong chng 3: ng thi c th cng tn ti d tha v thiu ht, nhng gia hai hin tng mt hin tng p o v hin tng kia l ngoi l.
114

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doanh nghip ngnh t lm nn. Cc chin dch cu vt khng l din ra, m chng cng c cc kh vng lin quan n tnh mm ca rng buc ngn sch. Trong chng 2.2 ni v cc nhn t no km hm s ct bt bn trong qu trnh ph hy sng to. Ln ny vic ny cng th hin r rng trong vic km hm s ct b nng lc ngnh t. Mt bn ca cn cn: nng lc khng c s dng khng l ca ngnh t gm cc ngun lc khng l v trong chng mc y l s lng ph khng khip. t gy nhim khng kh. Nhiu tai nn xe hi. Bn kia ca cn cn: s pht trin ca ngnh t ng gp vo vic, phn ngy cng ln ca dn c th gii i li nhanh hn v thoi mi hn. Cc nh my t v cc hng cung cp vt liu, linh kin v kinh doanh t to ch lm vic cho hng triu ngi. S tranh ua xy ra bn trong nghnh kch thch s pht trin k thut, cho t hm nay tin nghi hn, nhanh hn, an ton hn t ca 20 hay 50 nm trc. Smmun ri cng s c t ph cch mng v s dng nhin liu. Bn cht ca ch ngha t bn, nhiu loi thin hng di truyn mnh a cc qu trnh ny vo hot ng mt cch t pht, vi cc tc ng c li v bt li cng nhau. Ti im ny li b cng so snh gia nn kinh t d tha t bn ch ngha v nn kinh t thiu ht x hi ch ngha. ng l, d nng lc v kho hng d tr ln ghim cc ngun lc ln ngc li ngi tiu dng mua loi t mnh mun vo khi mnh mun, vi iu kin c tin cho vic y. Nu mun tr ngay, khu vc ti chnh, cng nh ngnh t v ngnh kinh doanh t sn sng cp tn dng. Ngc li cc nc x hi ch ngha thiu t l vn nn ngt ngt. Vo cui cc nm 1980 tng thiu ht trn th trng t ca Lin X v cc nc ng u ln n 4 triu chic; s ny tng ng vi mt phn ba d nng lc hnh thnh trong th gii t bn ch ngha.115 Ti ng u c nc, ni phi i 14-16 nm i vi mt s loi t (Kornai 1993a, tr. 262) Cc ngi mua khng nhng khng nhn c tn dng, m nhiu nc phi tr trc ton bhay mt phn gi xe ni cch khc, ngi mua cho ngi bn vay tin. Trong nn kinh t d tha s pht trin ca cc nh my t thc y s i mi. Cc sng kin mi xut hin hu nh hng nm: t cc thit b an ton tt hn n s pht trin si v lm lnh, t radar bo hiu nguy him va p n s dng in t, t vic lp t cc thit b gii tr (radio, quy a, TV) cho ngi ngi trn xe n pht trin k thut gim nhim khng kh. Ngc li trong cc nh my t ca nn kinh t thiu ht s pht trin k thut b kt li, sut hng thp k xe Trabant hay Wartburg ca ng_c, hay Lada ca Lin X v cc kiu xe khc hu nh chng c my thay i. Nhiu nht l c s sao

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c lng trn c s tnh ton ca Kapitny Zsuzsa (2010).

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chp mt vi sng kin phng ty vi tr ln. Nhng ci g thc y s pht trin nhanh, nu nhng ngi mua ch trong cc hng di c c chic t lc hu v k thut?

Gi lp trng ng h ch ngha t bn v nn kinh t d tha Vic xem xt li cc tc ng ca nn kinh t d tha v s so snh vi nn kinh t thiu ht hin nhin dn n cu hi tng qut: chng ta hnh thnh bn trong mnh phn xt gi tr nh th no v nn kinh t d tha. Ti phi nhc li s cnh bo c a ra u chng: tiu lun ca ti ch kho st mt mt ct ca s hot ng ca ch ngha t bn, c th l trng thi chung ca th trng, ch th trng, nn kinh t d tha. y khng phi l vn thnh phn bt k, m n to thnh im ht sc quan trng ca s nh gi. L v cc c hnh quan trng v cc rc ri quan trng ca h thng t bn ch ngha. Th nhng chng ta hnh thnh phn xt v ton b h thng t bn ch ngha, th chng ta cng phi cn nhc, th d, h thng t bn ch ngha c ngha l g t quan im phn phi thu nhp v tnh th x hi v kinh t ca nhng ngi lao ng, quan h gia nn kinh t t bn ch ngha v cc hnh thc cai tr kh d, gia nn dn ch v cc loi khc nhau ca nn c ti l g v ti c th lit k tip cc ti khng c xem xt trong tiu lun. Ti vn khng mun trnh hon ton vn ny. Ti nu lp trng ca mnh trong cc bi vit ca ti v cc nt c trng khc ca h thng t bn ch ngha, t quan im ca cc vn c xem xt , m c th l lp trng ng h h thng t bn ch ngha vi s nhn mnh mi lc, rng ti khng mun m i cc nt c im tiu cc ca h thng. Ti c hai l l chnh khin ti tr thnh tn ca h thng t bn ch ngha theo thang gi tr ring ca ti: u tin l, trong thang gi tr ca ti s gn b vi dn ch chim v tr u tin. Th m khng c dn ch m khng c ch ngha t bn. Cc nn tng kinh t t bn ch ngha khng to thnh cc iu kin ca s hnh thnh nn dn ch, ca s tn ti ca n v ca s bo v thnh cng n chng li nhng k tn cng n. Nhng iu kin cn ca s tn ti ca nn dn ch l s p o ca s hu t nhn t bn ch ngha v nn kinh t th trng. y ti ch c th nhc n l l ny, l l ng hng th nht ng h ch ngha t bn: ti trnh by lp trng ca mnh trong cc cng trnh khc ca ti. (Xem tuyn tp tiu lun, Ch ngha x hi, ch ngha t bn, dn ch v thay i h thng (2007) ca ti.) iu th hai khin ti ng h ch ngha t bn l, h thng ny (v ch h thng ny!) c kh nng, m c th l nh cc c ch ca nn kinh t d tha, gi trong s chuyn ng lin tc v thc y qu trnh hin i ha, i mi sng to, pht trin k thut nhanh. y 160

l vn v la chn gi tr, v cch tip cn gn vi mt loi cc gi tr ca cc quy lut vn ng ca x hi, ca tc ng ln nhau ca cc lc lng khc nhau. l l nng k th hai ny ti quay li nhm ch ca tiu lun hin thi. Trong con mt ca ti s tin b ng hoan nghnh l s tin b, ngy cng nhiu ngi vt ln khi trng thi i, kh v ngt ngt v vt cht, ngy cng nhiu ngi c hng cc thnh qu k thut, cho cng nhiu ngi c mc sng vt cht tng ln. Th m, s i mi, nn kinh t d tha thc y i mi, v cui cng l h thng t bn ch ngha to ra nn kinh t d tha, l nhng ci lm cho s tin b ny l c th. Mi quan im tip theo, m trn ti trnh ny nh c hnh ca nn kinh t d tha, trong con mt ca ti ch c tnh hng th ba gia cc l l ng h, tt nhin ti cn nhc nghim tc cc phn l l na. Theo thang gi tr ca ring ti hai l l u tin dn ch v s pht trin k thut quyt nh vn la chn gia cc h thng: ti chn h thng t bn ch ngha. C nhiu ngi, nhng ngi tr li ging nh ti cho cu hi c tm quan trng cn bn, rng chn ci no gia ch ngha x hi v ch ngha t bn. Th nhng s thng nht ny vn ng vic by t lp trng v mt lot cc vn quan trng khc. Hng thp nin trc ti c bi trnh by ti Dublin vinh danh nh thng k Ireland xut sc v c uy tn ln, gio s Roy C. Geary. Bi trnh by ca ti l v nn kinh t thiu ht xut hin trong h thng x hi ch ngha, ch ra nhiu kh cc m n gy ra cho dn c ca cc nc x hi ch ngha, nhng ti cng nhn mnh, rng nn tht nghip khng hnh h h. Trong phn tranh lun sau bi trnh by gio s Geary hi: liu c th gi s sung tc hng ha xut hin trong nn kinh t th trng t bn ch ngha ni chng ti, nc Ireland, nhng nhp thm t cc nc x hi ch ngha s loi b tht nghip, hay khng? Ti ti cng tr li th v by gi y c trang b bng kho tng cng c lp lun ca tiu lun ny ti nhc li mt cch nhn mnh: khng th. Thiu ht hng ha v thiu ht-sc lao ng l cc cp sn phm (joint products), trong nn kinh t thiu ht kinh nin c hai ng thi c hiu lc. V ngc li, trong nn kinh t d tha ng thi xut hin d nng lc, d hng tn v d-sc lao ng. Ngi chn ci tt theo con mt mnh, ngi phi ghi nhn, rng trong gi hng nhn thm c ci m theo con mt anh ta l ci xu. Ti gia nhp nhm rng ca cc nh kinh t hc, khi ti ng h ch ngha t bn vi cch tip cn khch quan, thc tin. Nhm ny cng chng thun nht. Thuc v mt nhm con l cc nh ci cch ngy th,116 nhng ngi tin chc, rng ch ngha t bn c th cha
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Nhng ngi c cc cng trnh sm hn ca ti, i vi h thut ng l quen thuc. Thi ti gi nh vy nhng ngi mong i t ci cch ca h thng x hi ch ngha, rng ci cch ri s cha lnh cc cn

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khi c mi cn bnh ct yu ca n. a s h thy liu php iu tr to ra kt qu lnh bnh hon ton trong nhng can thip thch hp ca nh nc. Mt nhm con khc v ti lit k mnh vo y khng tin vo kh nng c th cha c hon ton cc rc ri v nhng h hng. Ch ngha t bn l mt c th mu thun, vi cc tnh cht tt mnh, v ng thi cng vi cc tnh cht xu mnh. C cc tnh cht trc, ln cc tnh cht sau u thuc v bn cht ca n. Cc c hnh ca n c hiu lc vi sc mnh khng l khng phi do lng tt ca cc chnh tr gia v cc quan chc hay do cc li khuyn ng n ca gii tr thc, v cng chng phi v nh xu, tnh ch k hay s ngu dt ca cc chnh tr gia v cc quan chc chng phi v nhng lm lc ca cc nh l lun m xut hin nhng rc ri. y l nhng thin hng vn c ca h thng, m do cc li ch c cy su trong h thng, cc hnh mu ng x c hnh thnh theo con ng tin ha v cc khuyn khch to thnh. Phi sng chung vi cc rc ri vn c v khng th cha c ca h thng. Phi ghi nhn, rng ni c nn kinh t d tha, th cc hng tn ch i ngi mua c th phng ln rt ln, c dng thc qung co, trong qu trnh ca cc th tc mua sm cng thng xut hin tham nhng v vn vn. Theo kinh nghim ca ti trc ht ch ngha lc quan ngy th c trng cho tm tnh M, m theo mi vn u c li gii ca n. Tm tnh u chu (Php?, Hung?, Do Thi?) h nghi hn. C cc vn khng th gii c. Cch suy ngh sau khng cn dn n s cam chu th ng. C th lm nhiu th gim nh bt cc tc ng tiu cc ca nn kinh t d tha. Ti ch nhc n vi kh nng. Bn trong tng doanh nghip c th pht trin chnh sch mua sm v d tr hng, v c th lm cho cc dng chy sn phm gia cc doanh nghip c trn tru hn. Hy ngh n quy tc cung cp vt t b sung kp thi (just on time) thng dng trong cng nghip Nht Bn. Cng nhiu ni t c cc kt qu thun li v mt ny, th c th t c mc an ton v s hi lng ca ngi mua quen thuc t trc vi d tha cng nh hn trong ton b nn kinh t. C th bo v c tnh ng n ca cnh tranh kinh t bng cc quy ch php l ca nh nc v s kim tra ca nh chc trch. Phi ng ln chng tham nhng bng cc cng c hnh s hp hin. (Cc s trng tr lm) nht ch c th lm gim tn sut xut hin tham nhng.
bnh ca ch ngha x hi. V phn mnh ti coi cc nt c im tiu cc no y ca ch ngha x hi l tnh cht di truyn, vn c v khng th cha c. Tng t nh ti nhn mnh trong mt phn trc y ca tiu lun, ti cng coi cc c im bt li nht nh ca ch ngha t bn l tnh cht di truyn, vn c v khng th cha c.

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 C th c v li thi, nhng ti nh bo vi mt kin ngh: phi t chc li vic k hoch ha trung v di hn khng phi l h thng k hoch ch th tht bi, m l cc hnh thc hin i ca k hoch ha gi (indicative) ging m hnh Php mt thi. Sau cc th nghim cn thit vic ny c l c th ng gp cho vic iu ha tt hn cc nng lc mi d kin v cc nhu cu k vng. C th km ch cc lnh o ca cc doanh nghip ln mt cht khi cc khon u t mi, m cc khon u t s lm tng thm mc khng s dng ca nng lc ngnh. Ti nhc n cc kin ngh ny ch nh cc th d, minh ha, rng s ghi nhn tnh to cc tnh cht tiu cc vn c ca ch ngha t bn l ph hp vi s cn nhc mang tnh xy dng v s ng h cc quy ch v ci cch nh nc su rng.

Cc kh nng v cc hn ch ca vic tng hp l thuyt Cc dn chiu ca tiu lun hin thi r ra nhiu loi nhnh; trong danh mc ti liu tham kho c th thy cc tc gi xa nhau v mt tinh thn, cc tc phm ca cc trng phi v cc gi trng phi khc nhau ca kinh t hc b phn r thnh thuyt chnh thng (orthodoxy) v thuyt phi chnh thng (heterodoxy), dng ch lu v cc dng ngoi ch lu. Trong cc tc phm sm hn ca mnh vi s t ma mai ti x l tnh nhiu loi ny ca cc mi quan h h hng tinh thn v ti gi mnh l ngi chit trung. Trong khi by gi ti cng chng t chi tnh t ny, vi tiu lun hin thi thc ra ti nu mc tiu tham vng hn cho mnh. Ti tin rng, chng no chng ta li vi vic m t thc chng v gii thch nn kinh t t bn ch ngha v x hi ch ngha, th c th to thnh s tng hp ca cc khng nh do cc tro lu khc nhau nu ln. Cng cng mt s thc c th c thy ging nhau bi cc nh nghin cu, nhng ngi xem xt n t quan im khc nhau, c th i ngc gay gt vi nhau. Ti khng khng nh, rng mi tng l th, m ngnh kinh t hc to ra, c th c thng nht trong mt l thuyt chung ln duy nht. Cc kh nng tng hp hp hn th. Trong nhm ch , m chng ta tho lun, c th hnh thnh s tng hp t cc t tng quan trng lin quan ca cc trng phi, m tiu lun nhc n. Tiu lun ca ti khng lm cng vic tng hp ny, nhng th phc ha cc ng nt ca s tng hp.117 Ti mun gi l tng hp thc chng. Tnh t thc chng nhn mnh, rng nhng ngi c lp trng
Ti khng phi l ngi u tin nhn thy kh nng tng hp nh vy (xem th d Flaschel [2009] v HelburnBramhall [1986]). Cc tc gi nhc n s tng hp thng mun m t c trng ca s tng hp bng s gn kt hai-ba tn (th d tn ca Marx, Schumpeter v Keynes) vi nhau. C th theo tm gng ca Samuelson, ngi ngh ra t s tng hp tn c in t thm t tn-neo vo trc tn gi. C l tnh t thc chng cho s m t c trng ton din hn. S ng gp l thuyt c th c lit k vo y ca nhiu tro lu v trng phi u va di ci ca tng hp thc chng.
117

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khc nhau, thm ch i lp nhau v mt hnh ng chnh tr v cc mc tiu ng mong mun, (vn) c th i n ng thun trong vic hiu v gii thch s thc. Bng 2.9 Cc yu t ca tng hp thc chng v ch Nn kinh t thiu ht Nn kinh t d tha

ti Cnh tranh c tnh c quyn D nng lc i mi Ph hy sng to Hng d tr an ton Li tc tng theo quy m Qu trnh hnh thnh cu Mu thun li ch ca ngi s dng lao ng v ngi lao ng Gi v lng dnh Tht nghip Keynesian Tht nghip c cu Tm kim Lng hiu qu Th trng khng cn bng Cc l thuyt tin ha Thin hng di truyn Ght tn tht

Tc gi hay trng phi Chamberlin, Robinson, L thuyt cnh tranh hn ch L thuyt cnh tranh hn ch trng phi hu Keynes Schumpeter Schumpeter Cc m hnh kho hng d tr ca vn tr hc Kldor, Brian Trng phi disequilibrium Marx Keynes, New Keynesian Economics Keynes, trng phi disequilibrium Phelps Phelps, cc l thuyt search Stiglitz-Shapiro Trng phi o Sidney-Winter, Kinh t hc tin ha Keynes, behavioral eonomics, Akerlof-Shiller Behavioral economics

Ni dn chiu tiu lun ny (s th t tiu mc) 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4, 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5

Bng 2.9 khng c nhu cu y . Cng chng y ngay c trong vic cng b, rng tiu lun ny dn chiu n tc gi no hay trng phi no u; n cng chng b sung ch mc tn, ln ch mc ni dung.118 Cn c bit thiu trong kha cnh, rng n bao hm trong rng ton b tt c cc tc phm, cc l thuyt v cc khng nh, m chng ta c th cy vo s tng hp thc chng mi ca l thuyt th trng. Th nhng c l nh vy n cng cho mt cht s nm tri kh nng tng hp. Ti xy dng bng ny khng v mc ch lm r lch s l thuyt v s cng nhn danh ting. Cc tn c nhc n trong ct th ba khng nht thit l tn ca nhng ngi, m
118

Cc ch , cc tc gi, cc l thuyt v cc trng phi c nhc ti trong ct th nht v th hai xut hin khng ch trong cc tiu mc c nhc n trong ct th ba, m c nhng ni khc ca tiu lun na.

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pht trin v cng b tng mi no u tin. Ti ghi cc tn, hay cc nhn khc vo ct ny, m t bn c c th nhn ra ngay, ti mun m ch n hng nghin cu no. Bng khng nhc n kinh t hc nh ch trong mt hng ring.119 Ti s chng bit in ct th ba ca hng ny. Cch nhn ca ton b tiu lut, khung kh l thuyt ca cc hin tng ph hp vi cch tip cn c kinh t hc nh ch p dng. Ngoi ra quan h h hng tinh thn gn gi ny cng xuyn sut cc cng trnh sm hn ca ti. Vi bng ny ti mun nhn mnh, rng ti c th ly nhiu n th no cc khi lp rp (xy dng) t cc tc gi khc, khi ti th dng ln kin trc t tng ca tiu lun. Ti tic, rng ngay c bn thit k cng ch mi xong mt na, cn thiu ton b cc tng t phc ha ca cu trc nhiu tng ny. Tuy nhin ti vui mng khng nh, nh ti nhc n, rng ti khng c c; nhiu tc gi khc cng t mc tiu tng t cho mnh v th thit k s tng hp tng t. Cn nhc cc kh nng ca tng hp thc chng c v l, cc c hi ca s tng hp thc chng gn vi t tng ca tiu lun ny l tt hn rt nhiu trong kho st th trng-sc lao ng, so vi trong phn tch cc lnh vc khc ca th trng. C l s d vy, bi v lin quan n th trng-sc lao ng kh nghi ng, rng khng th tch ri khi vn ca nn kinh t d tha, ca tht nghip. Tuy ni khc cng c hin tng d tha nhng n la tong ln t hn d-sc lao ng. Trong tho lun n y ca cc kh nng tng hp, tnh t thc chng xut hin nhiu ln. Ti khng tin hnh chnh sch iu. Kh nng ha gii, tng hp chm dt vo lc, khi chng ta vt qua s m t thc chng v bc sang lnh vc ca phn tch chun tc, ca phn xt gi tr v khuyn ngh chnh sch. ting i bc vang rn ri. n ra tranh lun gay gt v cc thc h t tng chnh tr, cc quan im v cc tn iu khc nhau, i mt nhau by t v x hi tt ng vi nhau. Khng c chuyn khch quan y; hu nh l khng th, rng trn bi chin trng khc ny nh nghin cu c tnh kh bnh tnh nht cng vn gi c tnh khng thin v. Schumpeter, mt trong nhng ngi gy cm hng chnh cho cc cng trnh ca ti, trong thi chnh tr ng thin v hng ca ch ngha bo th. Trong gii ngha hot ng ca th trng ti hc c nhiu t Mises, Hayek v t cc tn mun hn ca trng phi o trong th hin thi chnh tr h pha cnh hu ca ph chnh tr. Keynes l chnh tr
119

Kinh t hc nh ch (institutional economics) c lch s lu di. Trong cc thp nin va qua trc ht nh cc cng trnh ca Douglass North (1990, 1991) n chim c v tr c thanh th gia cc trng phi kinh t hc.

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gia phng khong. Nicholas Kaldor (Kldor Mikls), m ti cm thy mi quan h h hng tinh thn mt thit vi cc t tng ca ng, cnh t ca ng Lao ng Anh, v rt tch cc v mt chnh tr. a phn cc i din ca New Keynesian Economics bn trong ph chnh tr M h c cm tnh vi cc ng vin ng dn ch. Trong phn tch d nng lc (excess capacity) c nhiu im tip xc vi trng phi hu keynesian hin nay, th d vi cc tc phm ca James Crotty (Crotty, 2001, 2002); ng, v nhiu thnh vin ni ting ca trng phi dt khot l nhng ngi cnh t. i n mt trong nhng vn ct li ca tiu lun ti ly lp trng ca Marx lm ca mnh. Trng thi, m trong cc nh kinh t hc xem xt l thuyt th trng i mt, ging nh tnh th, khi nhiu bc s khm cng bnh nhn v a ra chn on nh nhau. Th nhng khi bn v cc vic tip theo cn lm, th h kin ngh cch cha tr khc nhau cn bn: mt ngi kin ngh iu tr kin nhn bng thuc, ngi khc dng phu thut, cn ngi th ba bo ng c quy ry bng cch cha tr v ch, v ng no bnh nhn cng cht.120 V phn mnh ti dng li im ny. Th d, ti khng a ra khuyn ngh, rng trong nhng ngy ny chnh ph no hy theo ui chnh sch no v vn suy thoi tuy vic ny tt nhin c quan h mt thit vi cc vn , m tiu lun ny bn ti. Tiu lun ca ti bn trong cc gii hn ca phn tch thc chng mt cch nghim ngt. Ti tin, rng trong phm vi khoa hc c th c khoanh r ca m t v gii thch thc chng, th vic tng hp mi rng ri cc l thuyt, cc gii thch khoa hc v cc phng php nghin cu khng ch l thch hp, m ti cn cho l c th thc hin c.

Nhu cu v cc m hnh ton hc c sc gii thch Trong danh mc nu trn ca cc t tng c th lp vo s tng hp c kin ngh, c c cc l thuyt c trang b bng b my ton hc, ln cc l thuyt c trnh by m khng c cc m hnh. V mt ny ti khng mun chn gia cc khi lp rp, m t cn dng ln s tng hp thc chng. Tiu lun hin thi thun ty bng li. Nhng ti coi l ht sc hu ch, nu cng nhiu tng ca n to cm hng cho cc nh khai ha kinh t hc ton hc l thuyt to m hnh. Ti khng vo ha vi nhng ngi cho rng m hnh ha ton hc l th phm chnh ca vic kinh t hc b lc ng. Nhng ng thi bn thn ti cng cho rng, c th thy nhiu
120

Lin quan n s tch bit cch tip cn thc chng-chun tc c th thy lp lun ng ch trong tiu lun ca Heilbronner (1986). Theo ng cc chng trnh hnh ng hon ton khc nhau, m Marx, Schumpeter v Hayek kin ngh, ny sinh khng phi t m t thc chng v tnh hnh ca ba nh t tng ln ny, m t nim tin chnh tr khc nhau ca h.

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sai lm quanh vic p dng cc m hnh ton hc v ging dy cc l thuyt kinh t ton hc, v vic ny cng gp phn vo nhng lo u nghim trng ca ngnh khoa hc ca chng ta. Th nhng vic kho st ton din vn kh y khng phi l nhim v ca tiu lun ny. Khng ch ti khng xa lnh vic h hnh ha ton hc cc hin tng c xem xt trong tiu lun, ngc li, ti rt i hi vic xy dng chng. Nu khng phi lun lun, nhng kh nhiu ln vic nu vn mi trng i, nhng vn m trc ngi khc khng nu ra, xut hin dng bng li. Tho lun bng li c kh nng m t mt hin tng thc mt cch c sc thi v nhiu mt. Vic ny tuy vy ch l s bt u ca s hiu bit khoa hc. Sau phi th lm cho nh ngha ca cc khi nim chnh xc hn, din t cc mi quan h cht ch hn, lm cho cc iu kin c hiu lc ca khng nh no tr nn r rng v mt logic. M hnh ton hc tt c th gip vic ny. Trong ti liu tham kho ti khng thy m hnh, m c th lm vic ny cho cc tng ca ti nu ti thy, ti s rt vui sng nghin cu, v c gng s dng kim tra v chnh xc ha cc khng nh ca ti. Nu din t ton hc thuyt phc c ti v cc li nghim trng, ti sn sng xt li trit cc tng ca mnh. Ti hu nh khng tin, rng bng mt m hnh duy nht c th phn tch tt c cc vn m tiu lun ca ti ng chm n. Ti cng tha mn, nu tng m hnh kho st mt no , nhnh no ca vn . Ti nhc n vi th d. Cc tiu mc ca chng 2.2, tho lun cc qu trnh cung, cu v hnh thnh gi, gii thiu mt h thng ng, trong c tng tc gia cc qu trnh cung, cu v hnh thnh gi. Nhng ci ny cng nhau ti to ra d tha (tc l cc nng lc khng c s dng v cc kho hng d tr). Theo cm tng ca ti h thng ny c th c m t bng mt h phng trnh sai phn hay vi phn. Cc m hnh c th tr li cho cu hi: tp tham s no dn n vic xa b d tha, hay c l c th a h thng lt sang trng thi ca nn kinh t thiu ht. Tp tham s no tc ng theo chiu ngc li, tc l lm tng d tha v dn n kt qu cui cng l h thng v tung bi d tha ngy cng ln? Cc tnh cht no ca h thng c m hnh ha, khin cho cn bng walrasian (theo phng on ca ti) l khng n nh, m trng thi bn vng ca th trng lt sang hng nn kinh t thiu ht hay nn kinh t d tha? C l cn d dm theo hng, m b my ton hc ca l thuyt thm ha v l thuyt r nhnh c s dng. Vi Martos Bla, Simonovits Andrs v Kapitny Zsuzsa chng ti thit k cc m hnh (xem Kornai s Martos (1971), (1981)), trong d tha xut hin, thm ch chnh s phng ln hay xp xung ca kho hng d tr cp tn hiu ch yu cho vic iu chnh qu trnh. B my ton hc l kho st cc phng trnh sai phn v vi phn. thnh cng 167

chng minh rng h thng nh vy c kh nng hot ng v c th iu khin c. Th nhng chng ti lm d cho cng vic ca mnh bng cch gi s: cng ngh khng thay i, c cu sn xut khng thay i. Bng gi s ny chng ti loi tr chnh ci quan trng nht, ng trung tm ca cc tng ca tiu lun ny: s thay i lin tc, s i mi lin tc ca c cu sn phm, cc vn schumpeterian. C cc m hnh quan trng v l th, m ngi ta th thit k chnh theo tinh thn ca Schumpeter. (c bit cn nhn mnh cng trnh tin phong ca Aghion v Howitt (1998).) Th nhng cc m hnh ny cng ch nm bt na vi hin tng i mi. V ci thiu nht cc m hnh ny, l vic gii thiu cc c ch bn trong thc p s i mi. Gia chng ti nhc n cc m hnh ton hc m t hin tng li tc tng theo quy m (increasing return to scale) ri (Brian, 1994, Helpman v Krugman,1985). y l cc bc tin b ln nhng cho n nay cha c tch hp vo vic kho st cc qu trnh schumpeterian. Cc vn dng nh rt kh c th x l v mt ton hc. Trn c s cc n tng khng chuyn ca ti c v c nhng s tng t vi cc hin tng vt l, nh dng chy ca cc cht lng hay kh, cc qu trnh kh tng hay chuyn ng ca cc ht c bn. Hin nhin l s ging cc qu trnh tin ha sinh hc, trc y ni v vn ny ri. C l nhng ngi sn sng cho vic m hnh ha ton hc ca cc vn ny c th vay mn cc phng php t kho tng cng c ca cc ti nu trn. C th, rng cc phng php ton hc ph hp cho mc ch c th c ly t l thuyt cc qu trnh ngu nhin. Hay c l cn n s thin ti ca mt Neumann Jnos (von Neumann) mi, dng ln b my ton hc mi cho vic din t chnh xc phc ha c v bng cc nt bt th trong tiu lun ca ti? Trong khi thin ti cha xut hin, nh kinh t hc khng thin ti c th la chn gia hai chin lc nghin cu. Mt chin lc: hn ch vic chn ti cc vn , m vi hiu bit cho trc ca ngnh kinh t hc hin nay c th tr li. Nhng khi anh ta t b vic m hnh ha phn ln cc vn ln c nu ra trong tiu lun ca ti. Chin lc khc, nu khng lng trnh cc vn rt kh, th hn ch cch din t bng li v th tm cu tr li cho chng vi nhn thc, rng cu tr li l tm thi, khng y , khng chnh xc, nhng n gn s hiu ng hn. V phn mnh ti chn chin lc sau.

2.7 Nhng s lch khi s tng qut

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Trong phn n y ca tiu lun ti th phc ha s tng qut ca nn kinh t d tha. Hin nhin, rng ln, cc t l, phn b ca cc khon d tha l khc nhau theo tng nc. Nhn vo bng 2.2 l thy, cc s liu mc s dng nng lc ca cc nc tn mc th no quanh gi tr trung bnh 80 phn trm. Cc lch chc c th c nhiu nguyn nhn, gia cc th khc, l v cc thnh t ca c ch gy ra d tha trong nhiu kha cnh l khc nhau t nc ny sang nc khc. Cc lch gia cc nc, du chng quan trng n th no, khng c kho st trong tiu lun ca ti. Chng tip theo by gi xem xt s thay i theo thi gian ca trng thi v cc c ch ca nn kinh t d tha, phn thi gian theo cc quan im khc nhau.

Nhng thng ging ca chu k kinh doanh S thc ai cng bit, rng sn lng trong h thng t bn ch ngha chng ta o bt c mc no khng phi l khng i, m ln xung tht thng. Kinh t hc v m truyn thng xem xt chi tit s thch nghi ln nhau ngn hn ca cu, cung v gi c; tri thc v lnh vc ny tng ln lin tc. Tiu lun ny khng mun bn thm v nhm ti ny. Khng c s nht tr gia cc tro lu kinh t hc lin quan n thng ging ca chu k kinh doanh (business cycle). y l v cc giao ng c hiu lc trung hn. thnh cng tha thun v cch o chnh xc ca hin tng v nh ngha ca vi khi nim quan trng (th d, v chng ta gi ci g l suy thoi). Tuy nhin sut mt th k ri nay vn c tranh lun v cc nguyn nhn ca cc t suy thoi v hng thnh, v nh gi cc h qu v v chnh sch kinh t ca nh nc lin quan n s ln xung ca kinh doanh. Trong nhng ngy ny, sau suy thoi (hay trc mt suy thi mi?) cuc tranh lun gay gt hn bao gi ht. Cc lp trng i ngc chong nhau trong gii cc chnh tr gia, cc c vn kinh t phc v trc tip cho hot ng chnh tr v cc nh kinh t hc hn lm. Cuc tranh lun v thng ging ca chu k kinh doanh du c quan trng v li ch cng v l th v mt tr tu n th no, i tng ca tiu lun ca ti khng phi l bin ng trung hn ca th trng, m l bn cht bn vng mang tnh c th h thng ca th trng t bn ch ngha. Khi ti bt u vo cng vic ln ny, ti tnh n mi nguy him, rng cc vn trung hn chon ht s ch ca nhng ngi gii nht trong ngh, v h mun a ra cc li khuyn c th dng c trong thc t cho cc chnh tr gia v cc lnh o i sng kinh t i ph vi suy thoi. Nhng ti vn nhn ti: nghin cu cc hin tng bn vng. C s phn cng lao ng gia cc nh kinh t hc; ai phi lm c vic ny na. S d ti t nguyn xung phong nhn nhim v ny, bi v lnh vc chuyn mn ca ti, so 169

snh h thng x hi ch ngha v h thng t bn ch ngha ngay t u thc bch vic nghin cu nhng khc bit bn vng gia hai h thng ny. Sau khi a ra nhng do d ny ti hn ch vi ch gii. Ti mun thuyt phc bn c, rng trong khi suy ngh v cc vn ca suy thoi, hng thnh, thng ging chu k trong kha cnh ca cc vn ny cng c cc bi hc t cc lp lun ca tiu lun ca ti. Cc nguyn nhn v cc h qu ca s thng ging trung hn khng c lp vi vic, s thng ging xy ra gia cc khung kh ca ch th trng bn vng no. Trng thi chung ca th trng trong nn kinh t t bn ch ngha, ngay c gia nhng thay i tht thng in di, cng vn bn trong min mang cc tiu chun ca nn kinh t d tha. (Xem tiu mc phn tch tm tt c tnh ca hai ch th trng ca tiu lun ny.) Ngay c trong thi im hng phn nht ca boom (t hng thnh bt pht), khi trong cc ngnh dn u tng trng lng n hng tch t li cc doanh nghip sn xut, lng hng d tr gim, mc s dng nng lc tr nn cng thng, tht nghip t hn mc bnh thng rt nhiu, v nhiu ni s thiu sc lao ng tr nn cng thng, nn kinh t d tha vn chng lt sang nn kinh t thiu ht. Hy tr li hnh 2.2, hnh gii thiu mc s dng nng lc cng nghip M trong giai on gia 1965 v 2008. Cc di xm th hin cc giai on suy thoi. ng cong giao ng mnh; mc s dng st xung mc thp hn trc rt nhiu. Nhng chng c nm duy nht no mc n gn mc s dng hon ton, ch vi nm t mc 88-90 %. Trn hnh y, vng bn trn ng cong mc s dng cho thy s hin din bn vng ca d tha. Min d tha o bng ch s mc s dng nng lc cng nghip l gia 12 v 35 %. Din t mt cch tng qut hn: nhng giao ng theo chu k kinh doanh nm va trong min ca nn kinh t d tha bn vng. Min c cc ng gii hn ca n. Nu nn kinh t si ng mnh m, n vp phi gii hn trn, hay ph v cc k lc trc trong thi gian ngn thm ch c th vt qua n.121 Th nhng gn gii hn, v c bit sau khi vt gii hn, th cc c ch bo v khc nhau khi ng. Mt b phn ca cc c ch ny bt u hot ng mt cch t pht: trn th trng no cc bong bng t n tung v s suy sp xy ra nhanh chng trn th trng vi tr ngn cng ko theo c cc th trng khc na. Hay di tc ng ca cc hin tng d cu vic tng gi v lng gia tng v iu ny thc can thip chnh sch ti kha v tin t.

121

y ti li mun dn chiu n hnh lang c Leijonhufvud (2009) nhc n. (Xem ch thch 66.) Ci ti gi y l gii hn (ng ranh gii) ca min-nn kinh t d tha, tng ng vi hnh lang, m trong theo Leijonhufvud nn kinh t v m t bn ch ngha hot ng gia cc hon cnh bnh thng.

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C nhiu chng ln trong m t cc hin tng: cc nh kinh t keynesian nghin cu thng ging chu k m t c trng nhnh i ln, nhnh hng thnh, ca chu k (hin tng trung hn) theo cch no v tiu lun ny m t c trng nn kinh t d tha (hin tng bn vng) theo cch no. Cuc tranh lun c lch s trm nm v vic c th xut hin s bo ha (glut) chung trong nn kinh t hay khng. Lp trng c chp vin n quy lut ca Say mun chng minh ci c cho l quy tc, m theo cung t ng to ra cu ca chnh n. Nu tuyn b ny ng vng, th hin nhin khng ph hp vi s bo ha ni chung. Khi kinh t hc v m keynesian bc ln v i, cuc tranh lun c li bng ln. Ti mun nhn mnh, v lc cuc tranh lun l v liu trong mt giai on ngn cho trc c th c sn xut qu hay khng trong ton b nn kinh t. Tiu lun ca ti v mt cch tip cn theo thi gian i xa hn th, bi v n m t c trng ch ngha t bn nh nn kinh t d tha kinh nin lu bn. Ngay c nu chng ta b qua kha cnh thi gian ny, ti phi nhc n mt s khc bit na. Trong tiu lun ca mnh ti c trnh cm t sn xut qu . Chng ta c th ni v s sn xut qu lin tc khi, (hu chng ta hiu ngha ca cc t mt cch nghim tc), nu 1. tng nng lc ca lnh vc sn xut c kh nng cho s sn xut ln hn nhiu so vi mc tng cng nhng ngi mua c kh nng mua, 2. nng lc c tnh thi qu ny c s dng ton b hay gn nh ton b, tc l kh nng do nng lc to ra c th hin trong cc sn phm, v 3. nn kinh t tng trng sao cho s mt cn xng ny tn ti lu di. Nu gi nh iu ny xy ra, th vic ny dn n s phng ln khng cn xng ca hng tn, n s tng lin tc ca t s hng tn/sn xut. Ngi ta qung s c ph tn kho xung bin... y l con ngo p gi li cn c mng i Suy thoi m ngi ta thng tng tng ra lc nh vy. Trong tiu lun ca mnh ti c gng m t chnh xc hn ng hc ca cc qu trnh sn xut v tiu th, cung v cu. Vic khng s dng n ng k ca nng lc (tim nng sn c c di dng my mc, trang thit b, nh xng, ln di dng sc lao ng) l thng xuyn nhng y ch l kh nng sn xut khng c dng n, ch khng phi l bn thn s sn xut qu hin hu c th. H thng hot ng vi lng d tr ng k m bo kh nng la chn ca nhng ngi mua, kch thch ganh ua, bi trn b my chin u vi nhng trc trc thch nghi. Th nhng iu ny khng i cng vi vic lng d tr phng ln ngy cng to n mc khng th chu ng ni. S d khng nh vy, bi v, [ngoi cc l do khc], ngay ch s ph hy sng to schumpeterian ct bt mt phn nng lc sn xut v d tr c khi ni ny, lc ni khc. 171

Hy chuyn sang nhng chng ln trong kho st cc mi quan h nhn qu. Cc nhn t nhn qu, m vi chng tiu lun ca ti gii thch cc hin tng d tha xut hin thng xuyn, mt phn trng vi cc nhn t nhn qu, m vi chng mt s l thuyt khng hong gii thch cc t suy thoi c tnh thi k. Khng nh v s rt li lu bn ca qu trnh cu so vi qu trnh cung hin nhin hi ging vi ci m Keynes v nhiu ngi theo ng ni v s khng cu nh nguyn nhn chnh gy ra khng hong. Ti hy vng, thnh cng khin bn c hiu, rng mc d cu tr li c nhiu s ging nhau, tng ca cc l thuyt c nhc n v tiu lun ny tr li cho cc cu hi khc nhau. Trong cch nhn ca l thuyt c phc ha trong tiu lun ca ti vn khng phi l v cung kinh t v m ln vp phi mt gii hn cu kinh t v m ln. Nh ti nhn mnh trc y, ngay c khi nim v vic o ci ny [cung-, cu v m] cng lm cho ti nhc c. Cng trnh ca ti ch yu c gng xem xt cc c s kinh t vi m. Trong cnh tranh c tnh c quyn t bn ch ngha cung ca nhng ngi sn xut-bn hng tng, v bin i lin tc v cht lng, pht trin v mt k thut, v gia chng nhiu ngi v nhiu ln vp phi nhng gii hn cu mc vi m, c bit l nhng ngi b rt li v mt k thut sau cc i th cnh tranh, hay v cc l do khc khng cn hp dn trong con mt ca ngi mua. C th l, trn th trng ca tng i mi ngay c cc hin tng thiu ht cng c th xut hin, nhng rt cuc hin tng d tha thng xuyn hn v c cng mnh hn rt nhiu so vi hin tng thiu ht. Trong cc bi vit ca cc kinh t gia nghin cu v cc thng ging chu k trung hn s phn tch thc chng mang tnh m t-gii thch thng gn mt thit vi khuyn ngh chnh sch kinh t. Tiu lun ca ti c nhn vic sau; n tp trung vo vic tm hiu nn kinh t d tha do h thng t bn ch ngha to ra. Du sao, nu ti ng chm n cc vn bin ng chu k, ti lu , rng t tiu lun ca ti t l thuyt v ch ca nn kinh t d tha bn vng c th rt ra vi bi hc cho c nhng ngi lm chnh sch phn-chu k. Cn xem xt k lng, xem cc tnh cht c hu, cc thin hng c m ha mt cch di truyn ca h thng t bn ch ngha gii thch ci g v s bin ng xoy ln ca sn xut, u t, tn dng v nhng sai lm v sai st ca cc chnh tr gia, chnh ph, ngn hng trung ng v cc c quan iu tit nh nc gii thch ci g. Ngay c nu chng ta tha nhn, rng cc lc thc y chnh ca cc s kin l cc nhn t trc, cc nhn t t nhin, khng cn, thm ch khng c php c thi th ng. Phi hnh ng ch vi nhn thc, rng nhng nng lng khng l thc y giai on i ln ca chu k; ch c th i u vi n mt cch tnh to v vi s hiu bit thnh tho v kho lo.

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Chng ta cng c th a thm tuyn b tng qut hn: thin hng xoy ln v v trc sau cng vp phi cc gii hn ri ri xung, tc l rt cuc [thin hng] thng ging chu k, c cy sn vo ch ngha t bn. T tt c cc iu ny khng suy ra, rng s iu tit l khng c ngha. Nhng nh kinh t hc, ngi gip cc nh ra quyt nh chnh tr thit lp s iu tit, ng c nui o tng. Hungary ngay c trong cc tranh lun ci cch ca cc nm 1960, 1970 ph bin mt cm t trng mt cch ti tnh: o tng iu tit.122 Chnh ph tin, rng c th lm ch tnh hnh vi cc quy ch php l, vi nhng can thip trc tip thch ng ng lc. Trong khi nhng ngi ra quyt nh mc thp hn, trc ht l lnh o cc doanh nghip, bit phi lch qua cc k h ca cc quy ch php l nh th no. Vic ny c nh l cuc chy ua v trang, ngi ta tm ra phn v kh i ph vi mi v kh mi. C l bi hc quan trng nht l chng ta hy hiu ng: s tng-gim ca nn kinh t khng ch c cc tc ng c hi v au n, m cng c tc ng hu ch v tin b na. c bit nh cng trnh tin phong ca Kondratyev v nhng ngi khc v iu ny cng c Schumpeter nhn mnh trong cng trnh ln ca ng (1939) v chu k kinh doanh, rng s pht trin k thut tng nhanh trong cc giai on i ln ca chu k. Pht biu bng ngn ng kinh t hc ng thi: trong mt s tng nhanh v bo chng ta khng ch cn thy chui cc s kin trao tay nhau, kch thch nhng vic u c to bo hn, v trch nhim hn, m cng cn thy rng trong khung kh ca cc s kin c th xy ra mt qu trnh i mi nhanh. Chc chn tnh hnh l nh vy trong bong bng dot-com ng nh: bong bng ny i cng vi s tng trng nhanh cha tng thy ca ngnh thng tin-truyn thng. Qu trnh i mi c ngha l th nghim. Th m ni vic ny xy ra, mt th nghim thnh cng xut hin cng 10 hay 100 th nghim tht bi. Nhn li th d tuyn b: l ra chng cn cp tin hoang ph cho cc th nghim tht bi. Mt th trng vn rt ngt ngho, bo th c th c li nhn t quan im gi cc cn i kinh t v m ngn hn, nhng li bp nght s i mi i cng vi cc ri ro, khi vi cc ri ro khng l. Chnh sch phn-chu k l con giao hai li khng ch trong cc thi k i ln, m c khi i xung na. Chng 2.2 ca tiu lun bn, rng gn lin vi s ph hy sng to l vic d b nhiu tuyn sn xut c, l s chm dt nhiu ch lm vic c. Tnh on kt con ngi (v vic t c tnh bnh dn chnh tr) i hi s bo v cc ch lm vic trong thi gian suy thoi. ng, nhng ng thi vic ny cng c th km hm hin i ha.

122

Antal Lszl (1980) a ra tn gi ny.

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Lch s l lun bn nhiu v s ganh ua ca Schumpeter v Keynes. Di hn kiu Keynes qua t lu, c hai u cht. n lc nn xem cc t tng ca h c th ha gii c v b sung hu hiu cho nhau im no, v khng th ha gii c im no. Ti im ny ti li phi li s tch bit gia cch tip cn thc chng v chun tc ra. C v c th tng hp cc t tng ca Schumpeter v Keynes, nu chng ta th hiu th trng t bn ch ngha hot ng th no.123 Th nhng t ci m tiu lun ca ti phc ha nh s tng hp thc chng, khng rt ra c kt lun dt khot lin quan n cc vic cn lm. Dp ny ti khng mun ln li cc cng trnh ca hai nh t tng ln v d la tm xem chnh sch, m bn thn cc ng thc s khuyn ngh trong thi , l chnh sch no. Ti y ti ch ng ti nhng ngi ghi tn Keynes hay Schumpeter ln l c ca h. Mc d c s chng ln trong nhiu vn vi cc phn tch keynesian quan trng, tiu lun ca ti khng ng h v mt tr tu cho chnh sch kinh t keynesian thng tc (bng mi gi phi ni rng gii hn tng cu, bi v khi chng ta c th tn dng cc nng lc tt hn). Tng t, mc d c s chng ln trong nhiu vn vi cc phn tch schumpeterian quan trng tiu lun ca ti cng chng ng h v mt tr tu cho cc chnh sch kinh t schumpeterian thng thc (hy khng hong lm cng vic git chc ca n, bi v s ph hy b rt li ng sau s sng to mt cch qu ng). y ti i n nhng th lng nan rt su sc v o c, chnh tr v kinh t. Ti khng mun a ra li khuyn cho cc nh ra quyt nh chnh tr Washingtoni, Berlin, Budapest. Ti ch mun lu cc c vn kinh t ca h n ci, m dng t duy ca tiu lun ny gi : mi cng c can thip c th c tnh n u mu thun. T tiu lun ca ti rt ra c thm mt bi hc chnh sch kinh t hin thi. Cuc tranh lun quc t v khng hong tp trung phin din vo lnh vc ti chnh tin t. Ngi ta tm kim nguyn nhn ca cc tai ha hu nh ch trong s lng lo ca cc quy ch php l hn ch cc quyt nh ca lnh vc ti chnh tin t, trong c cu ti ca cc nh ch iu tit, trong nhng mo m ca chnh sch ti kha v tin t. Phn ln ph phn chc chn l c c s. Tuy nhin trong khi li c qu t s ch n cc c ch no hot ng trong lnh vc thc, u hnh thnh cc nng lc tha qu ng, lm sao c th iu phi tt hn cc t l ca cc khu vc ca nn kinh t..

Nn kinh t thi chin

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Tng hp Keynes-Schumpeter tr thnh mt thc s trong ngh kinh t; hng lot tiu lun c xut bn, m ngay tiu ca chng cng ha hn vic to ra s tng hp ny.

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Nu mt nc tin hnh chin tranh, th chin tranh tc ng n mi mt ca i sng, v nh th gia cc th khc n c hot ng ca nn kinh t na. Trong kha cnh ny tt nhin rt ph thuc vo vic cc hot ng chin tranh ghim gi bao nhiu ngun lc ca t nc. Nhiu loi ch s o lng mc ny, th d phn GDP v sc lao ng b ghim gi bi cc n hng trc tip ca qun i. Nu t l l tng i thp, th nn kinh t t bn ch ngha vn cn l nn kinh t d tha, trong cc hin tng thiu ht ch xut hin lc c. Nhu cu ca cc hot ng qun i chim phn cng ln ca tng ngun lc sn c, chin tranh cng tr nn ton b, th cc hin tng thiu ht cng tng v cng ph bin. Ngi ta t ra h thng tem phiu cho cc h gia nh, thng dn phi xp hng c thc phm, chnh quyn phn b cc nguyn liu v cc bn thnh phm eo hp cho cc doanh nghip. S chuyn i cng c th cm nhn c hn, nu chin tranh ko di, v s hy hoi do chin tranh gy ra tng ln khng ch trn cc chin trng, m c hu phng sn xut na.124 Chin tranh th gii ln th hai buc nhiu nc trn th gii phi nm tri nn kinh t thiu ht, m ti cc nc trong cc nm chin tranh ch ngha t bn da trn s hu t nhn vn tn ti. Nn kinh t thi chin chng minh, rng khng c php hiu mi quan h nhn qu h thng t bn ch ngha nn kinh t d tha mt cch my mc nh tnh quy lut khng c ngoi l. Mt cch tm thi chin tranh to ra cc hon cnh hn ch hay lm ngng hu nh hon ton cc c ch to ra nn kinh t d tha, v ng thi khi ng cc c ch gy ra nn kinh t thiu ht. Th nhng kinh nghim lch s cng chng minh, rng vi s khi phc ha bnh nn kinh t thiu ht (nhanh chng hay ko di mt cht) li tr li v tr cho nn kinh t d tha, m s d c th phc hi nhanh, bi v vn cn cc nn tng t bn ch ngha. Th d nc c ton tr ca Hitler, m i kh xa trong tp trung ha quan liu v iu tit kinh t, ni s ph hy ca chin tranh lm cho vic cung cp tr nn c bit thiu thn, t nn kinh t thiu ht ch vi nm sau li tr thnh nn kinh t d tha mu mc. Cn cc nc ng u, ni ng cng sn nm quyn, tch thu ti sn t nhn, v ph tan nn kinh t th trng, vn cha ra khi nn kinh t thiu ht tm thi do chin tranh gy ra, th hnh thnh nn kinh t thiu ht kinh nin do h thng x hi ch ngha gy ra.

Cc bin i c quy m lch s, cc xu hng lu bn trong ch ngha t bn hin i

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Trong s cc ti liu bn v nn kinh t thi chin ti nhn mnh cc cng trnh ca Galbraith [1952], Milward [1979] v Olson [1963].

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Tiu mc nhng thng ging ca chu k kinh doanh ni v cc bin ng tm ngn hn. Hin tng c m t trong tiu mc nn kinh t thi chin nn kinh t thiu ht do chin tranh gy ra tuy c th ko di hng nm, nhng vn c tnh qu . By gi chng ta chuyn sang kho st cc xu hng lu bn. S l v nhng bin i xy ra mt cch lin tc, t t, trong trong nhiu bc nh, v cn thi gian di th hin tc ng ca chng th nhng ngm su, v gy ra nhng bin i quan trng trong hot ng ca x hi v nn kinh t. Tc ng cm nhn c c trong cc qu trnh c tiu lun kho st na. (i) S tng ln ca nh nc phc li Trong na sau ca th k 19 ti nhiu nc chu u xut hin cc dch v phc li cng nh nc, m t hnh thnh nh nc phc li trong th k 20 ti tt c cc nc pht trin. Quy m v nhp gia tng ca n l khc nhau tng nc, nhng c quy m ng k tt c cc nc pht trin. Ti y ti khng mun vng vo cc cuc tranh lun khi nim v thng k c mun lm r, thc ra ci thng c gi l nh nc phc li bao hm ci g. C th c lit k vo y m khng cn tranh ci l cc dch v c cung cp cho nhng ngi s dng mt cch min ph hay vi khon chi tr rt thp, trc ht l cc dch v chm sc sc khe v gio dc, ngoi ra l chm sc tr em, nhng ngi tn tt v nhng ngi gi. Cc hot ng ny c ti tr t tin cng qu, tc l t cc ngun, m rt cuc l thu hay c th c coi gn nh thu, t cc khon ng gp bt buc. Trong phn b v s dng cc dch v cng min ph hay gn nh min ph mi ni u xut hin cc hin tng kinh t thiu ht. Trong khi kinh t nn kinh t d tha hot ng trong phn ln mi trng kinh t, vi tt c cc triu chng quen thuc i cng ca n, trong bin c ca cc hin tng d tha c th thy mt hn o mang cc c im ca nn kinh t thiu ht. Phng khm y t qu ng ngi cht nch, nhiu khi phi xp hng hng gi; phi i hng thng tri i vi mt s phu thut hay chn on (bng 2.10). Kh nng la chn ca bnh nhn b hn ch ng k: chn bc s no cho mnh, thch c cha tr bnh vin no. C h thng chm sc sc khe, ni bnh nhn trn thc t b mt hon ton quyn la chn, phi chp nhn bc s iu tr v c s y t c ch nh cho mnh. Cng c th gii ngha khi nim thay th bt buc i vi dch v y t: bnh nhn khng c c thuc, c c phng php chn on hay bc s theo la chn t nguyn ca mnh, m nhn c ci ngi ta ch nh cho mnh.

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Bng 2.10 Thi gian ch i trong mt s h thng chm sc sc khe ty u, 2004 S tun
Nc o an Mch Php H lan c Ty Ban Nha Thy in T vn bc s chuyn khoa 1,83 5,27 3,14 3,47 2,93 1,84 4,94 9,65 Phu thut di chuyn 3,11 10,24 3,30 5,63 12,00 3,08 17,60 18,46 Phu thut khng di chuyn 7,91 9,44 8,14 11,48 9,40 6,49 24,10 28,14

Ngun: SicilianiVerzulli, 2009, tr. 12991300; www.share-project.org. Ch thch: s liu c th thy trong bng da trn o lng ly mu i din chn nc chu u ca d n SHARE project (Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe). Cc s liu c s dng da trn kt qu ca pha u tin c tin hnh trong nm 2004 ca d n. Bng cng b s liu trung bnh c nc ca cc cu tr li. Nhng ngi tham gia tr li cho cc cu hi sau y: 1. Phi i my tun cho t vn bc s chuyn khoa? 2. Phi i my tun cho phu thut di chuyn (ambulant) gn y nht? 3. Phi i my tun cho phu thut khng di chuyn (nm vin) gn y nht? cho vic so snh c n gin chng ti chuyn t s thng sang s tun cho hai trng hp ch s sau cng.

Chng ta phi pht hin ra, rng cc hin tng ca nn kinh t thiu ht khng ch xut hin trong mng li c nh nc ch o v ti tr theo ngha en ca t, m cc khch hng ca cc hng bo him (y t) t nhn ln, b phi nhn tnh ha, c iu tit bi cc quy ch php l cng c th c nhng tri nghim tng t. Nhn t quan im ny ng rt ra bi hc t h thng chm sc sc khe ca Hoa K. C mi cp . mt thi cc ca ph l s t nhng ngi c th cho php mnh chi tr bc s ngi sao v bnh vin t tnh ph cao do mnh la chn ch t tin ti ring (out of pocket). y r rng cc hin tng quen thuc i cng ca nn kinh t d tha c hiu lc: nh cung cp dch v c khuyn khch vt cht mnh thc hin cng vic xut sc, kh nng la chn ca ngi mua v vn vn. thi cc kia ca ph l nhng ngi (v s nhng ngi ny khng nh) khng c bt c loi bo him no. Nhiu ngi trong s h phi da vo s chm sc khn cp m tt c mi ngi u c th s dng, v h th s dng ngay c khi bnh ca h khng mang tnh khn cp. (Ci cch chm sc sc khe ca Obama chc s lm gim ng k s ngi khng c bo him y t.) Phn khc ny ca ph l nn kinh t thiu ht so mn: cht nch, ch i lu, cch c x lnh lng, khng thn thin v k c. Gia hai ra ca ph c cc cp hn hp, trong cc hin tng kinh t d tha v kinh t thiu ht ha trn vi nhau. Nhiu ngi s dng lao ng a ra thc n thc s cho ngi lao ng, h la chn gia cc 177

gi bo him khc nhau. Trong trng hp ca la chn r hn phn t tham gia ca bnh nhn nh hn, nhng trn thc t ngi c bo him khng c kh nng t do la chn bc s v bnh vin. Trng hot ng ca bc s do hng bo him ch nh cng rt hn hp, rt nhiu quy nh hn ch bc s trong vic c th ch nh thuc, chn on, phu thut t hn vn vn. Khch hng quyt nh chn gi bo him cng t hn, th bnh nhn tim nng cng c th bc sang th gii ca nn kinh t d tha. Bo him t nht hu nh cho kh nng la chn bc s v bnh vin khng hn ch; hng bo him sn sng chi tr loi iu tr, m bc s v bnh nhn tha thun (fee for service). Trong ngnh y t hiu theo ngha rng c ni t l (th phn) ca khu vc c nh nc iu tit v c ti tr bng tin cng qu l rt ln khu vc t nhn mang tnh v li nhun (for-profit) cng ng k. R rng c th lit k vo y cc bnh vin t v ch iu tr cc bnh nhn t tr tin, cc Egyrtelmen idesorolhatk a magntulajdonban lv v kizrlag fizet betegeket kezel krhzak, cc vin iu dng v cc phng khm chuyn khoa, cc bc s hnh ngh t nhn, cc phng th nghim chn on for-profit. Bn cnh , thuc loi ny l cng nghip thuc v cc doanh nghip sn xut cc thit b k thut y t, bun bn thuc vn vn. Khu vc y t t nhn hot ng nh nn kinh t d tha chun.125 c bit ni bt l trong ngnh dc: cnh tranh c tnh c quyn gay gt, i mi nng ng, cc kh nng la chn rng ri ca ngi mua v cc cn l qung co, s thao tng ngi tiu dng, khng him l s tham nhng c che giu ca cc bc s k n thuc. Ngc vi dch v chm sc sc khe, m nhu cu l khng th b bo ha, nhu cu i vi mt phn ca cc dch v o to b bo ha. Khc nhau theo tng nc, lut quy nh phi ph cp n lp my, trong mi trng hp s ngi trong nhm tui di hiu lc ca quy ch php lut l c sn, ngn y l nhu cu gio dc trng hc.126 Vn ca trng thi chung ca th trng th hin gay gt trong o to bc cao. Ti cc nc, ni o to cao ng i hc l min ph hon ton hay gn nh min ph, cc triu chng ca nn kinh t thiu ht xut hin ngay lp tc: s ghi danh tha qu ln, s ngi khng l chen chc trong cc trng i hc, cc ging vin b qu ti. Cc t chc o to bc cao tr thnh cc i cng xng sn xut bng cp lm tn hn n cht lng. T l ca nhng ngi thuc tui tr i hc cao ng i hc ln mt cch khng cn xng.127
Trn c s kinh nghim M, gio s i hc Harvard Arnold Relman khng nh: s thng mi ha chm sc sc khe, ch ngha kinh doanh - entrepreneurialism (cc t ca Relman) gy ra d cung, d tha (excess). nng lc (Relman, 2010.) 126 Tt nhin cung v cu ca cc trng tt v t tt phn tn kh mnh, v v th ngay c trong lnh vc gio dc bt buc cng c th song song xut hin cc hin tng d cung v d cu. 127 Mc d tho lun th trng sc lao ng khng phi l ch ca tiu lun, y ti cn nhc n, rng nhiu nc u ra ca cc nh my sn xut bng vt qu nhu cu ca x hi v sc lao ng c bng cp.
125

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Trong cc nc, ni khng c quyn ph qut c c s o to i hc, m phi tr hc ph, th s sn sng nhn sinh vin v cung cp dch v ca cc t chc o to bc cao v nhu cu tham gia o to ging rt nhiu trng thi bnh thng ca nn kinh t d tha. Bn cnh cc hin tng d tha cng xut hin cc hin tng thiu ht na, th d vic ng k qu nhiu vo cc trng c uy tn ln nht. Ci c ch to ta nn kinh t d tha hot ng y: cnh tranh nhm c quyn, i mi v tnh nng ng bn cung vn vn. Ai mun c o to i hc, v c tin tr, ngi nhn c s o to. Cn ai khng c tin tr, v khng nhn c hc bng, ngi rt khi kh nng c o to i hc. Cc dch v min ph ca nh nc phc li m rng ra n u, ngi ta gn cc iu kin g cho vic c th hng? Cc th lng nan nghim trng gy kh cho vic la chn. Mt mt l tnh hiu qu, s pht trin cht lng, mt khc l cc quyn con ngi bnh ng v cc gi tr cng bng x hi va chm vi nhau. Trong cc cng trnh khc ca mnh ti bn lun chi tit v cc vn chun tc ca nh nc phc li (trc ht xem, KornaiEggleston, 2002). Tiu lun hin thi kho st cc xu hng lch s c bit quan trng ch v mc ch phn tch thc chng. Cc dch v min ph i cng vi nh nc phc li xut hin cng su v cng rng trong nn kinh t ca mt nc, trong nn kinh t d tha do ch ngha t bn to ra hot ng, th xc sut xut hin ca cc hin tng thiu ht cng tng theo cng mc . Ch ngha x hi trn c chng ta ri! nhng k th bo th ca nh nc phc li thng lm cho dn chng khip s bng nhng cu nh vy. May l cc khu hiu ca h ch cha mt na s tht, c th l, cng vi cc dch v min ph ca nh nc cng xut hin vi nt c trng v c tc ng ln (tt v xu, c li v bt li) ca h thng x hi ch ngha, trong s c hin tng thiu ht ti c gng gii thiu iu ny cc phn trn. May l s gy khip s ch ng mt na. Do vic nh nc ta t chc dch v chm sc sc khe min ph v bin vic o to cao ng i hc min ph thnh quyn ph qut, ch i ngh vn khng sp , v KGB vn khng bt u hot ng ca mnh. Th m c trng s mt ca h thng x hi ch ngha l c quyn chnh tr ton tr v s n p. Nh nc phc li hnh thnh gia cc khung kh ca nn dn ch chnh tr, v hot ng ca n va hp vi cc nh ch dn ch.

(ii) S mm i ca rng buc ngn sch

Thng xuyn l, nhng ngi lao ng c o to qu lm vic cc cng v c phn cng thp hn. Dch v min ph to ra d cu i vi o to bc cao. Di p lc ca cu ln th u ra: tng ln, ci sau gy ra d cung ngi c bng.

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Mt trong nhng c trng quan trng ca nn kinh t x hi ch ngha da trn s hu nh nc l hi chng rng buc ngn sch mm.128 Bn cnh cc nhn t khc hin tng rng buc ngn sch mm cng ng gp vo vic hnh thnh nn kinh t thiu ht. Rng buc ngn sch mm xut hin khng ch ring trong h thng x hi ch ngha. Nh ti nhc n cc phn sm hn ca tiu lun, n ni ln di nhiu dng c trong ch ngha t bn na, khi nh nc cu vt cc doanh nghip, cc t chc phi v li, th d cc bnh vin, cc i hc, cc nh sn xut t nhn, cc ngn hng hay cc chnh quyn t qun a phng gp kh khn ti chnh nghim trng, b l trin min hay tr nn khng cn kh nng thanh ton. Vic cu vt a phn xy ra cng khai trc cng chng. S kin nh vy khng ch tc ng n nhng ngi c cu vt, m n c nhng ngi tham gia khc ca i sng kinh t na. Cc hnh ng cu vt cng nhiu v cng ngon mc, th s k vng cng hn su vo u nhng ngi ra quyt nh kinh t, rng trong trng hp tai ha h cng c th tnh n bn tay gip ca nh nc. Cm gic ca ti l, xt lch s ca ch ngha t bn, xu hng bao trm cc giai on di ch theo hng mm ha rng buc ngn sch. Vo bui bnh minh ca ch ngha t bn ngi ta i con n tr n ht sc khc nghit. T khi k lut ti chnh lng i, cc cuc cu vt c v ngy cng tr nn thng xuyn. Ni lo s (ni lo s chnh ng!), rng s sp ca vi doanh nghip ln v c bit ca vi ngn hng ln hay t chc ti chnh khc c th khi ng dng thc ph sn v mt kh nng thanh ton, hu nh lm cho cc hnh ng cu vt ca nh nc tr nn bt buc. S mm ha rng buc ngn sch tc ng th no n c tnh kinh t d tha ca th trng? C th tnh n hai loi tc ng, c hai u theo hng d cung. gii thch tc ng th nht ti nhc n tiu mc Cc qu trnh bn cung ca Chng 2.2, bn v vai tr ca s ph hy sng to schumpeterian nh nhn t th ba to ra v d b cc nng lc khng c s dng. Ngay c nu rng buc ngn sch l cng i na, doanh nghip b rt li sau trong cnh tranh, b i mi y ra ngoi, th vn c th tn ti, cho n khi cn c th. Khi nha nhn to ph bin, cng nh s gim kch thc my mc v trang thit b lm cho cu v cc sn phm st v thp gim i tng i, cc khu r st vn qun qui mt thi gian di. Cc ng ch nh ghi nhn s gim li nhun, nhng ngi lao ng nh tha mn vi lng thp hn, hn l mt vic lm vnh vin. Bm ly s sng st, m nh ti ch ra trc y, bn thn n cng to ra nng lc d tha. Thm vo y l p lc ca cc ng ch,
Tng quan ca l thuyt v rng buc ngn sch mm v tng quan cc ti liu lin quan c th thy trong bi bo KornaiMaskinRoland [2004].
128

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ca cng nhn v ca dn c vng ln cn cng nhau i cu c s sn xut b tuyn n suy sp, gi n sng mt cch nhn to, vic nhiu khi xy ra. Ni cch khc, hin tng rng buc ngn sch mm tip tc km hm s ph hy, vic d b cc nng lc tr nn tha. Hnh thnh tnh trng tng t trong nghnh nng nghip ca nhiu nc. Cnh tranh l ra y nhiu trang tri, ch yu l cc trang tri nh sn xut vi cng ngh lc hu, ra khi sn xut. Th m trong sut thi gian di cc nh lobby nng nghip vn c kh nng t c vic gi cc x nghip nng nghip thua l sng st vi s h tr ca nh nc vi vic mm ha rng buc ngn sch. Vic ny gp phn vo vic hnh thnh v duy tr d tha nng lc ln ca ngnh nng nghip. Tc ng th nht c m t trn ca rng buc ngn sch mm lm thay i qu trnh cung li raexit, c th lm chm vic rt khi (th trng). Tc ng th hai lm thay i qu trnh cung li voentry, c th lm tng nhanh vic gia nhp (th trng). Ti vt ranh gii do mnh vch ra khi nu ti ca tiu lun ny, v a ra mt nhn xt v thc hnh tn dng ca khu vc ti chnh tin t. S mm ha rng buc ngn sch, k vng lin quan n vic cc ngn hng gp rc ri ti chnh c nh nc cu vt c xc nhn lp i lp li di dng cc hot ng cu vt mi hn v mi hn khin cho vic cho vay tr nn d di, u v v trch nhim. T cc khon vay d di hnh thnh qu thng xuyn cc nng lc mi, m sau khng chng t c l c kh nng sng, v rt cuc lm tng tng mc nng lc khng c s dng. Khng ch ngi cho vay, m c nh u t cng b cm d cho s nh d khinh sut, nu trong trng hp u t tht bi th c c hi ln c cu gip. Ci phanh km kht vng bnh trng, km s kht u t trong ch ngha t bn c in l cng ca rng buc ngn sch. Nu ci ny b mm i trong ch ngha t bn hin i, th doanh nghip t bn ch ngha cng vi s v trch nhim tng t c th hng hi bt tay vo cc hot ng u t c ri ro cao, nh nhng ngi ra quyt nh u t trong ch ngha x hi lm. Vi nhiu ngi s tnh ton cng c kt qu. Trong thi gian ca suy thoi hin thi Hoa K v nhiu nc chu u ngi ta cng qung phao cu h cho mt s doanh nghip khng l trong nghnh t v cc ngnh khc, khi ha ra rng nng lc d tha tng ln rt ln ca chng, cc kh khn bn hng nghim trng ca chng a chng n tht bi ti chnh. Tiu lun ca ti khng mun a ra lp trng v th lng nan chnh sch kinh t cu vt hay cho mt i. n np ng sau mi quyt nh cu vt l cc vn kinh t v m v x hi kh khn, rt cuc l cc th lng nan chnh tr v o c. Ti ch mun vi cch tip cn thc chng khng nh s tn ti ca khuynh hng c m t trn.

181

n cui cc lp lun v s mm ha rng buc ngn sch, hy quay li cch tip cn thc chng vi mt cu tng kt. Mc d c cc du hiu khng nghi ng g na ca xu hng mm ha, rt cuc tnh cng ca rng buc ngn sch vn l hin tng p o ca ch ngha t bn ngy nay.

(iii) Ton cu ha Cho n y cho vic trnh by c n gin tiu lun khng bn v thng mi quc t. Th m khi chng ta bn chng hn v cnh tranh c tnh c quyn, phi ch : tng doanh nghip sn xut khng ch phi chin u vi cc i th trong nc ca mnh v nhng ngi mua, m nu l v sn phm c th trao i c c vi cc sn phm c nhp khu na. T hng ngn nm nay, t khi c thng mi, lun lun c xut khu v nhp khu. Trong thi i chng ta, ci qu trnh a dng, phc tp, thng c gi l ton cu ha, cng c vai tr ca thng mi quc t. Nu chng ta ch n kh nng nhp khu, th a fortiori (tt nhin) c hiu lc tt c ci, m tiu lun trnh by n y v d tha sn sng c th huy ng ngay. cho nh sn xut trong nc c gng ly lng ngi mua, khng cn (tuy khng c hi) rng sn phm nhp khu phi thc s nm trn k hay trong nh kho ca ca hng. L nu thc c rng c th nhp khu sn phm c cng cht lng, hay c l c cht lng tt hn v/hoc r hn to ra ng x ca nn kinh t d tha. Mt trong nhng h qu ca ton cu ha l, s phn b cc nng lc khng c s dng lin tc c sp xp li v mt quc t. Vic sn xut nhiu sn phm c th xut khu c rt si ng Trung Quc, n v cc nc ang pht trin khc. V th cc doanh nghip chu u v bc M, m trc y sn xut cc sn phm tng t vi gi cao hn, i mt vi nhng lo ngi v bn hng nghim trng. Chng khng ng ca ngay lp tc. Mt b phn thay i nt c trng (profile), v cn tn ti, phn khc sm mun cng ng ca. Th nhng trong thi k giy gia th nng lc ca chng vn , phn ln khng c s dng. Trong cc nn kinh t mt thi lc hu, nay tng trng nhanh chng, th mt phn ng k ca cc nng lc c dng ln nhm vo th trng ca cc nc pht trin. S m rng cc th trng tiu th ny tuy vy c th khng c nh k vng ca cc nh u t v khi ti cng ny sinh nng lc d tha khng c s dng.129

129

Tiu ca bi bo bn v chuyn ny tht ti tnh: Trung Quc: vng lun qun ca nng lc d tha (Artus [2009]).

182

(iv) S pht trin ca cng ngh thng tin-truyn thng Trc khi ti ni v tc ng ca cng ngh thng tin v truyn thng ang pht trin nh v bo ln mi quan h ngi bnngi mua, hy khi phc li tnh hnh ca thi i trc Internet. Trong mi quan h ny ti phi nhc bn c nh li vi ti, m chng ta tho lun trong chng 2.4 bn v th trng-sc lao ng. Ngi bn v ngi mua phi tm thy nhau; y l bi ton, m vn tr hc gi l vn khp nhau (matching problem). cho cuc gp g xy ra, nh sn xut phi kim c thng tin v ngi s dng, ngi bn phi kim thng tin v ngi mua v ngc li. Sm hn ti nhn mnh, rng vn bn thn khng mang tnh c th h thng. Trong mi h thng nh sn xut v ngi s dng, ngi bn v ngi mua phi tm thy nhau. lm vic ny cn n thng tin trong mi h thng. Tuy nhin phi ni thm: cc tc ng c th h thng cng nh hng n cc qu trnh ny. Hai ch th trng, nn kinh t d tha v nn kinh t thiu ht khc nhau ht sc c bn v mt gnh nng tm kim thng tin ln vai bn no. Trong nn kinh t thiu ht phn ln gnh nng kim thng tin ln vai ngi mua. Nu ngi mua khng tm thy mn hng khan him ca hng th nht, v c kh nng l c l c th tm thy ni khc, th ngi mua phi i t ca hng ny sang ca hng khc v nu may mn s kim c mt hng y u . Tng t ngi lo vt t ca doanh nghip sn xut cng phi tm kim, u c th tm thy nguyn liu hay bn thnh phm cn tm (vi iu kin, khng ch c mt ngi bn c quyn cha cc th trong kho). Mt phn ca nhim v thng tin do b my quan liu tin hnh, trong h thng k hoch ch th bn thn n phn b mt s u vo c bit. Tnh th ca nh sn xut-ngi bn a phn l thoi mi nhn t quan im ny. Khng cn phi tm ngi mua, bi v b my quan liu ch nh ngi mua cho n, hay ngi mua tm n n. Trong nn kinh t d tha cc gnh nng lin quan n vn hnh lung thng tin cn thit cho dng chy sn phm c phn chia theo cch khc. B my quan liu khng tham gia vo hot ng ny. Cc gnh nng ch yu ln vai ngi bn. B my qung co khng l vi hng trm loi cng c ca mnh trc ht chuyn thng tin thc t n cho ngi mua v tt nhin, nh cng ni trc y v chuyn ny, cng km theo thng tin mt chiu hay thng tin gi hon ton, v mun thao tng ngi tiu dng. Ngay c trong thi i trc Internet ngi mua trong nn kinh t d tha cng khng hon ton c min khi vic tm v kim thng tin. Gi c khng ng u, nh trong nn kinh t x hi ch ngha, ni chnh quyn xc nh cc gi thng nht c quy nh t trung ng. V li ch ring ca mnh ngi mua th tm, u c th mua sn phm vi gi thp nht. V tt nhin ngi bn khng ch cnh tranh bng gi. Cng mun cho thm ci g , 183

mt hng c bit, c cht lng khc vi ca nhng ngi khc, c th l sn phm mi cha tng thy trc y. Ci khng kim c trong mt ca hng, mt hng (hay rt ging th hay mt hng thay th c l cn tt hn hay r hn) c th kim c ca hng khc. Chnh kh nng la chn c hnh cc k quan trng ny ca nn kinh t d tha cng thc y ngi mua tm v kim thng tin.130 So vi s phn chia quen thuc ca gnh nng thng tin, th Internet mang li s thay i cn bn. Ngi mua c th kin c thng tin v cung d hn rt nhiu v nhiu hn rt nhiu: ci g c th mua c, vi gi bao nhiu v u? Khng phi lang thang t ca hng ny sang ca hng khc, hay gi in thoi hi khp ni, bi v c th li c ng thng tin v mn hnh ca mnh. Nhng ngi bn cng nhn ra kh nng ny. H khng ch s dng mng ton cu (web) nh cng c ph bin thng tin v thao tng ngi mua, m c ln vai ngi mua phn ln hn ca gnh nng tm sn phm ph hp na. Mt phn bng mi cho cc li ch vt cht, nh th h lm vic ny trn c s kinh doanh lng thin: ngi bn hng bn sn phm hay dch v r hn, khi ngi mua t hng qua Internet. Th nhng bn cnh cch chuyn chi ph ng n nh vy nhiu khi cng xut hin nhng cch bt lng na: nhng ngi bn hng th p t ln ngi mua buc ngi mua phi lm ht cng vic tm kim thng tin nng nhc. Nhiu ngi bn cn lm kh cho vic ngi mua tin hnh mua theo kiu truyn thng trc i hng thy (trc khi c Internet). c bit phi chu ng vic ny l nhng ngi khng thnh tho trong vic s dng my tnh v Internet. Tt c cc th ny vi s ch n trng thi ca th gii hin i b sung v chnh xc ha bc tranh, m chng ti trnh by tiu mc 6.3 v tng quan lc lng v phn chia gnh nng gia ngi bn v ngi mua.

Cc ci cch nh hng th trng trong ch ngha x hi, chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha C c th vin ti liu m t v phn tch cc cuc ci cch nh hng th trng xy ra bn trong h thng x hi ch ngha, trc ht l nhng thay i ca Nam T, Hungary, Ba Lan v Trung Quc. Ngy cng nhiu sch v bi bo bn v s pht trin mun hn, v s chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha, ca vng nm pha ng bc mn st mt thi. Tiu lun

130

Trong cc nm 1970, 1980 khi chng ti thng xuyn hon i ch lm vic gia Hungary v Hoa K, v ti lun xc nh: Budapest trong nhiu trng hp s d phi i t ca hiu ny sang ca hiu khc, bi v c s thiu ht, v phi i tm bn thn sn phm. Ti Hoa K t nht cng cn ngn y thi gian tm, nhng l tm ni c gi r hn, ni c th c h gi, hay ni c la chn hng phong ph hn nhiu la.

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ny ng n s bin i lch s th gii ny ch t mt quan im duy nht: n mang li s thay i no v ci, m ti gi l trng thi chung (tng qut) ca th trng. im xut pht hy l 1949, khi Nam T cn l thnh vin ca khi x hi ch ngha. Khi tt c cc nc cng sn, t ng c n Trung Quc, hnh thc c in ca nn kinh t thiu ht ng tr. Mun hn vi nc bt u tng nc mt u tin l Nam T, th hai l Hungary bc bng mt chn ra khi h thng tp trung cc oan, da trn cc ch th k hoch, c iu phi bng c ch quan liu, h thng to ra v ti to nn kinh t thiu ht. Cng vi vic ny bt u hin ln cc o ca nn kinh t d tha gia bin c ca nn kinh t thiu ht.131 Th d vo cc nm 1970 Budapest ai n cc ch thc phm ln ti ni thnh, c th cm thy: hng ha phong ph hu nh trn ngp ngi mua. (Trong khi trong cng thnh ph phi i hng nm tri c in thoi, t v nh .) Bc ngot chnh tr nm 19891990 cng mang li nhng thay i trit trong nn kinh t na. Trnh t v nhp ca nhng bin i l khc nhau ty tng nc. Trong mt nc ngi ta t nhn ha cc doanh nghip nh nc vi nhp nhanh mt cch gng go, nc khc c tin hnh theo nhiu cp . Sut t u n cui cc hin tng d tha v thiu ht xut hin cnh nhau. S t do ha th trng xy ra ni nhanh hn, ni ko di hn. S phn b ca hai loi hin tng, cc hin tng d cu v du cung, t l ca nn kinh t thiu ht v nn kinh t d tha t nhiu thay i mt cch ng b vi s bin i ca quan h s hu v c ch iu phi. Vi s kt thc ca chuyn i kinh t s p o ca nn kinh t d tha tr nn r rng. S bin i lch s, m im xut pht ca n l nn kinh t stalin c in, v cui cng tr thnh nn kinh t d tha chn mui, c l l th d sinh ng nht ca cc tng c trnh by trong tiu lun ny.132 minh ha ti cng b bng 2.11, bng quay li lnh vc c tho lun u chng 2.2, dch v in thoi. Bng cho thy, thiu in thoi ln nh th no trc thay i h thng. Ai cng bit y l mt trong nhng hin tng gy n nht ca nn kinh t thiu ht. Sau bc ngot 19891990 s thiu ht chm dt v vic s dng in thoi c dy (v chng ta ni thm, in thoi di ng) tng nhanh.

Ti ch dng cng s tng t, m vi trang trc ti dng cho trng hp ngc li: vi hn o ca nn kinh t thiu ht ni ln trong bin c ca nn kinh t d tha. 132 Djankov v Murrell (2002) cho mt tng quan v cc ti liu kho st v mt kinh nghim cc kt qu ca s chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha vi vic s dng cc s liu thng k. Theo y c s ng thun gia cc tc gi ca nhng nghin cu k lng nht, tin cy nht v khng nh sau y: mt trong nhng nhn t quan trng nht thc y s ti c cu v tng nng sut ca khu vc doanh nghip l s hnh thnh cnh tranh ca nhng ngi bn. (Xem trang 20-21 ca tiu lun.)

131

185

Bng 2.11 Danh sch ch kt ni mng in thoi c dy, cc nc trung-ng u, 19712007.

Bulgaria
19711975 19761980 19811985 19861990 19911995 19962000 20012005 2006 2007

Czechslovakia Ba Lan 25,10 30,20 11,30 18,69 25,49 7,19 0,77 1,01 0,81 33,60 45,70 57,10 73,20 51,20 10,39 3,75 1,30 n. a.

Hungary 36,60 47,20 55,50 58,99 41,72 2,89 0,51 0,46 0,52

Rumani n. a. n. a. n. a. 77,84 98,38 56,75 23,13 6,34 4,87

Slovakia n. a. n. a. n. a. n. a. 8,82 3,77 0,44 0,21 0,15

n. a. n. a. n. a. 23,50 20,36 11,09 3,21 1,95 0,20

Ngun: Cc s liu cho thi k trc thay i h thng trong trng hp ca Czehslovakia, Ba Lan, Hungary ly t (Kornai, 1993a). Cc s liu khc da trn d liu ca United Nations Statistics Division (2009), World Resource Institute (2010) v International Telecommunications Union (2006, tr. 104112). Ch thch: cc s liu ca bng l di ca danh mc i c kt ni vo mng in thoi c dy so vi s thu bao, phn trm. trong trng hp ca Bulgaria v Slovakia trong hng 19861990 l s liu ca nm 1990, v khng c s liu ca cc nm trc 1989.

Trong qu trnh thu thp d liu trc khi vit tiu lun, ng tic ti phi xc nh: trong khi mi ngi dn ca cc nc nguyn cng sn u ch thn cm thy s thay i ny, th hu nh khng c chui thi gian no c thu thp m c th ln theo du vt ca s bin i ny vi sc thuyt phc. Trong cc nc pht trin cc ch s kinh t, kinh doanh v ti chnh ln theo du vt ca nhng thng ging lp i lp li nhiu ln t thng ny sang thng khc vi c trm loi ch tiu v l khn ngoan, nu ngi ta ch n chng. Th nhng chng ta phi nhn ra: trong na pha ng ca th gii xy ra mt s bin i c tm quan trng lch s, c nht, chng bao gi lp li, l th trng chuyn t nn kinh t thiu ht sang nn kinh t d tha. Cc chui thi gian minh ha, cc thc phim thng k ch c thc hin mt cch ht sc thiu thn.133 C hi khng bao gi tr li.

133

Nhng o lng c KOPINT ca Hungary tin hnh v nhng cn tr ca sn xut l nhng ngoi l. Cc chui thi gian c bt u nm 1987, trc thay i h thng, v cho n tn ngy nay c thc hin lin tc vi phng php khng thay i, cho php s so snh theo thi gian mt cch nht qun. V tng quan ca cc s liu, xem hnh 2.5, cn ton b s liu ca chui thi gian c th thy trong bng F.1.

186

2.8 Li cui ring t Ti bt u tiu lun ca mnh bng vic m t cc n tng, v ti quay li chng khi hon tt vic din t. Hn nm mi nm trc, trong cun sch u tin ca ti c vit nm 1956 nhm t hc v ph tin s vn thiu ht xut hin ln u tin trong cng trnh ca ti (Kornai, 1957). K t n lm ti bn tm mt cch sng ng, y cng ti chnh ca hai cun sch ca ti. Bc tranh hnh thnh trong ti v s thiu ht, v c bn chng thay i trong na th k. T u n cui mt cp i lp l lng trc mt ti, mt s i sch phn i. Ti gim hy vng, rng b my phn tch c tinh luyn t nghin cu ny sang nghin cu khc, m vi n ti m t v hiair thch cc hin tng; s m t cc tc ng ca hai loi trng thi, s nh gi cc c hnh v cc tai hi ca chng tr nn y hn v cn i hn. Th nhng ti nht quyt gi cch nhn ca mnh v vn mt cch kin nh. Ti tin, rng nhiu dn thng ca khu vc hu x hi ch ngha cng nhn thy s bin i xy ra trn th trng nh th. Ti bit r l, a s tuyt i cc nh kinh t hc chuyn nghip suy ngh bng nhng khi nim khc. H xc nh cn bng ni ti thy: chng ta khng gia, m chng ta lt t nn kinh t thiu ht (tht may cho chng ta!) sang nn kinh t d tha. Mt trong nhng n d a thch ca ti l bc tranh ca Escher v nhng con thin nga bay. Mt ngi thy cc con thin nga trng bay t tri sang phi, cn ngi khc trong cng bc tranh li thy cc con thin nga en bay t phi sang tri. Ti mun kt thc m lun ca mnh bng mt n d khc m ti c c trong bi bo tuyt vi c trch dn trc ca Domar.134 Theo mt ng ngn c ca n , mt hong t sai vi ngi m: hy kho st mt con voi, v sau ni cho hong t bit con voi l th no. Mi ngi m s mt phn no ca con voi, v k v n. Ri nhng ngi m bt u ci ln vi nhau. Ngi no cng chng minh rng mnh ng. Ti sn sng ci ln. Trc ti phi tuyn b vi s khim nhng: ti l ngi m. Con voi th to, cn ti ch thnh cng s mt phn nh ca n.

134

Tiu ca bi bo ca Domar (1989) cng trng phc: Nhng ngi m v con voi. Tiu lun v cc ch ngha.. Domar nhc, rng ng nghe ng ngn n ny t gio s Padma Desai, nh soviet-hc ngi M gc n .

187

PH LC
Cc nhn t cn tr sn xut trong cng nghip Hungary, 19872010
Bng F1. Cc nhn t cn tr sn xut trong cng nghip Hungary, 19872010 Cu hi: Cc nhn t no cn tr nht n sn xut ca doanh nghip ngi? (C th c nhiu cu tr li!) Tn sut tng i ca cc cu tr li (tng s ngi tr li = 100)
S bt trc ca mi trng 42,8 42,9 42,1 45,8 45,3 42,2 47,6 46,9 46,6 41,5 42,6 54,6 50,9 47,3 54,1 54,7 47,9 43,0 40,4 42,3 47,2 43,0 51,3 45,9 40,4 Thiu sc lao ng c Thiu nguyn liu v ph kin Cc ngh nh kinh t C ngun gc trong Kh khn ti chnh

Thiu-sc lao ng

TI gian o lng

Khng ci cn tr

Nhp t khu vc

Nhp t khu vc

Thiu nng lc

Nhp khu

khng r rng

ng dollar

Thiu cu

ng rp

o to

1987. I. 1987. II. 1987. III. 1987. IV. 1988. I. 1988. II. 1988. III. 1988. IV. 1989. I. 1989. II. 1989. III. 1989. IV. 1990. I. 1990. II. 1990. III. 1990. IV. 1991. I. 1991. II. 1991. III. 1991. IV. 1992. I. 1992. II. 1992. III. 1992. IV. 1993. I.

Thng 4-1987 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1988 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1989 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 1990. janur Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1991 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1992 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1993 Thng 4

13,0 10,3 11,2 17,0 10,7 10,8 11,8 16,5 10,8 14,7 12,7 13,6 10,8 8,7 6,9 8,9 6,0 5,5 7,0 0,0 7,0 6,9 6,8 9,2 7,4

26,0 27,4 21,3 24,1 28,0 28,3 27,3 30,7 38,0 40,1 40,4 51,2 51,3 56,1 51,0 54,5 60,6 70,1 66,8 65,9 65,1 62,2 56,1 54,5 57,7

22,2 23,7 24,1 15,8 15,7 24,7 23,0 19,3 21,5 22,0 21,9 13,4 12,1 13,9 10,3 4,3 4,3 4,0 3,3 3,0 3,3 7,4 4,4 4,8 2,2

41,2 42,3 46,6 39,4 50,0 44,1 45,3 38,5 37,6 28,7 27,5 21,4 13,8 13,0 15,3 11,3 9,4 7,1 6,2 7,2 5,8 5,9 10,6 8,7 6,1

42,6 46,7 50,4 41,8 50,0 44,1 45,3 38,5 37,6 28,7 27,5 21,4 13,8 13,0 15,3 11,3 9,4 7,1 6,2 7,2 5,8 5,9 10,6 8,7 1,3 32,8 35,3 64,0 22,4 17,9 11,8 8,9 6,3 3,9 2,2 5,2 3,7 2,6 2,4 2,0 1,0 1,0 1,5 3,1 2,3

7,2 6,7 8,2 4,6 6,3 7,9 8,6 6,1 4,7 7,1 5,2 0,7 3,6 3,3 2,5 2,7 3,4 1,3 1,8 2,7 2,3 3,7 2,8 3,3 2,4

31,2 24,3 22,1 20,4 32,7 36,4 35,0 40,1 49,6 46,1 46,8 49,4 57,8 45,2 51,9 48,7 53,2 54,1 52,7 47,3 51,0 45,9 47,8 42,9 45,5

0,0 28,5 22,0 20,4 24,8 27,1 31,2 25,3 23,9 22,0 24,6 21,2 16,4 1,6 17,2 20,4 12,6 9,9 13,5 13,7 15,1 15,0 18,2 15,6 13,9

188

kinh t

nc

Qu

1993. II. 1993. III. 1993. IV. 1994. I. 1994. II. 1994. III. 1994. IV. 1995. I. 1995. II. 1995. III. 1995. IV. 1996. I. 1996. II. 1996. III. 1996. IV. 1997. I. 1997. II. 1997. III. 1997. IV. 1998. I. 1998. II. 1998. III. 1998. IV. 1999. I. 1999. II. 1999. III. 1999. IV. 2000. I. 2000. II. 2000. III. 2000. IV. 2001. I. 2001. II. 2001. III. 2001. IV.

Thng 7 Thng 10

6,4 9,6

68,8 67,9 62,5 59,0 59,5 58,2 55,0 55,0 60,2 54,2 56,2 65,3 65,7 58,0 61,6 61,0 63,0 56,1 53,3 49,5 58,9 57,4 58,4 70,6 71,4 65,7 60,6 63,1 55,1 49,6 53,6 55,8 61,7 64,3 67,0

3,0 3,7 4,3 4,3 6,7 6,5 7,8 4,3 7,4 8,5 4,1 5,1 4,6 6,0 3,6 3,7 4,4 6,6 5,5 5,2 5,1 8,9 7,0 4,9 5,0 6,3 4,4 6,1 7,4 9,4 7,9 6,2 6,6 5,5 3,5 14,4 12,1 17,0 14,9 13,5 15,0 18,2 21,1 20,3 16,1 19,5 19,8 13,0 11,0 14,8 18,6 15,2 18,9 22,2 23,0 19,0 19,1 18,4 15,7

8,0 7,5 9,4 9,5 7,1 11,1 10,1 13,5 10,2 12,9 9,4 8,0 5,5 7,4 7,1 7,9 5,3 7,1 8,1 8,0 4,0 3,6 3,3 4,5 3,8 5,2 3,5 3,7 6,8 8,6 7,1 3,5 3,9 6,3 2,6

3,2 3,1 2,4 2,4 2,9 3,0 2,2 2,6 5,1 2,8 2,6 4,8 3,2 4,8 2,1 2,8 1,5 2,1 2,3 0,3 1,4 1,9 1,2 0,7 0,6 1,8 2,0 2,0 3,4 3,0 4,4 1,9 2,3 1,2 1,7

3,2 4,5 4,6 4,5 6,5 7,6 5,4 6,9 7,1 4,6 6,1 4,1 4,6 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,1 7,9 6,9 7,0 6,5 5,3 6,4 3,8 3,5 5,5 4,7 5,3 10,1 10,2 8,7 8,1 5,5 4,3 2,2

47,3 46,6 47,3 44,7 42,4 44,4 40,0 44,8 42,4 45,0 41,0 37,3 36,9 30,8 30,1 30,1 27,9 24,6 23,7 22,4 22,3 22,8 21,6 23,8 23,3 23,6 24,6 22,1 25,0 25,2 23,0 29,8 26,6 24,7 23,0

11,0 10,6 14,4 11,9 10,7 11,3 14,6 17,0 16,8 16,2 18,7 13,6 11,8 14,0 17,1 16,0 16,1 11,4 13,0 11,5 11,5 10,6 9,7 10,5 11,0 7,4 9,8 8,6 12,2 10,9 13,9 11,6 13,7 8,2 10,4

44,0 42,4 46,6 38,5 39,8 41,2 40,9 46,0 43,1 45,2 45,8 34,6 32,6 36,0 33,6 34,0 30,2 26,0 21,4 17,5 20,3 25,1 22,5 25,5 31,1 24,0 25,2 26,6 21,6 22,6 23,4 32,2 31,,6 33,3 30,4

Thng 1- 1994 10,9 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1995 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1996 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1997 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1998 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-1999 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2000 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 2001. janur Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2002 11,4 11,7 12,7 13,2 9,8 8,1 9,8 11,1 9,9 11,5 12,1 10,9 14,0 15,2 19,0 25,4 21,3 22,5 18,0 24,0 15,7 13,2 16,0 18,0 18,4 16,9 14,8 23,0 17,0 12,1 15,7 14,8

189

2002. I. 2002. II. 2002. III. 2002. IV. 2003. I. 2003. II. 2003. III. 2003. IV. 2004. I. 2004. II. 2004. III. 2004. IV. 2005. I. 2005. II. 2005. III. 2005. IV. 2006. I. 2006. II. 2006. III. 2006. IV. 2007. I. 2007. II. 2007. III. 2007. IV. 2008. I. 2008. II. 2008. III. 2008. IV. 2009. I. 2009. II. 2009. III. 2009. IV. 2010. I.

Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2003 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 2004. janur Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2005 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2006 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2007 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2008 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2009 Thng 4 Thng 7 Thng 10 Thng 1-2010 Thng 4

16,1 14,3 16,3 12,2 12,4 8,7 11,7 9,3 16,0 14,0 13,0 9,1 8,8 8,5 10,9 10,3 12,6 11,7 10,4 9,6 13,9 7,3 6,0 8,5 5,3 10,3 3,7 4,5 3,9 4,7 4,5 8,0 5,4

64,8 67,9 66,1 68,3 70,3 66,9 59,9 64,0 58,0 54,0 59,8 59,6 65,4 69,7 61,7 60,9 56,5 53,2 52,0 47,8 50,3 47,6 56,0 56,8 50,6 49,7 69,4 75,0 78,6 76,3 76,8 79,1 78,4

3,0 6,3 4,0 3,6 3,2 4,9 7,8 5,4 6,1 7,1 7,0 7,7 3,2 3,8 7,1 3,3 6,8 8,3 10,4 10,1 11,9 9,8 7,5 9,0 8,4 10,8 4,5 2,3 0,9 1,4 2,3 1,0 2,7

16,6 16,0 20,3 14,5 15,1 12,5 20,8 17,8 16,7 19,9 24,0 19,7 19,3 23,7 22,4 26,6 26,2 30,2 30,2 30,3 29,1 32,7 41,8 36,2 41,6 38,5 20,8 14,0 12,7 13,0 11,4 13,9 9,9

4,0 3,8 4,0 3,6 4,3 4,2 7,2 5,0 7,9 11,2 9,2 7,2 4,6 6,6 6,6 4,3 4,7 4,9 9,4 8,4 6,0 7,8 5,2 8,5 7,4 5,1 4,2 4,2 4,3 4,7 2,3 2,0 3,3

1,5 2,5 2,6 1,8 2,2 1,0 3,3 3,9 3,9 6,2 4,4 4,3 1,8 2,4 3,3 3,8 4,2 5,9 6,9 5,1 6,0 3,9 2,2 2,5 4,7 4,6 1,5 1,9 2,2 1,4 0,8 0,9 1,6

2,5 5,1 5,7 3,6 2,2 7,0 6,8 4,7 5,3 8,3 6,3 5,3 7,8 5,7 8,2 7,6 8,9 8,3 8,4 9,0 11,3 8,3 9,7 7,5 4,7 9,2 3,8 1,1 2,2 1,9 3,8 2,5 2,7

21,1 23,6 18,5 14,5 21,6 24,0 25,4 23,6 26,8 25,7 28,4 26,4 27,2 25,6 29,0 28,3 24,1 19,0 23,8 25,3 21,9 32,7 29,9 28,1 31,1 27,7 40,0 40,5 39,7 39,1 36,4 37,3 39,6

8,0 3,4 7,9 9,0 4,9 11,5 17,9 15,9 13,6 11,6 9,2 15,4 12,9 18,0 16,4 14,7 12,0 21,5 21,3 19,7 15,9 26,3 26,1 30,2 27,9 27,2 29,4 35,6

26,1 27,0 25,0 29,9 30,3 37,6 38,1 43,8 37,7 34,4 33,9 34,6 36,4 37,0 37,2 33,7 34,0 46,3 48,5 44,9 36,4 53,2 57,9 48,2 55,3 54,4 66,4 65,9 62,4

30,7 28,0 30,4 26,1

58,6 64,4 58,9 52,3

Ngun: cng b trc tip ca Konjunktra s Piackutat Intzet (Vin Kinh doanh v Nghin cu Th trng). Hnh 2.5 cng b bng ny di dng th.

190

3. Libert, galit, fraternit (T do, bnh ng, bc i)

Suy ngm v nhng thay i tip sau s sp ca ch ngha cng sn*

3.1 Nhp mn
Cch mng Php mun lt ch chuyn ch. V by gi chng ta ang lm l k nim th 20 ca mt s kin khng km tm quan trng lch s: lt s cai tr chuyn ch ca nn c ti cng sn ch ngha. Chng ta tp hp nhau li Bucharest, a im duy nht ni s thay i y kch tnh khng din ra m khng c bo lc v mu. Nhng l ngoi l, bi v i vi khu vc ny nh mt tng th s thay i c bn din ra mt cch ho bnh. Ci xy ra hai mi nm trc l mt cuc cch mng nhung. Bi v cho d khng c mu, n l mt cuc cch mng v v th mt cu hi hp l hi l, ci g c thc hin [trong s cc mc tiu] ca khu hiu cch mng: T do, Bnh ng, Bc i Libert, galit, Fraternit? Khu hiu trn, tt nhin, khng bao hm tt c cc gi tr c bn. Hai gi tr lin kt mt thit vi nhau r rng l thiu: tng trng v phc li vt cht. Cc nh phn tch khc v chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha kho st s thc hin ca hai gi tr ny (xem, th d, EBRD 2008 v 2009.) Hy cho php ti cc vn cc k quan trng ny cho nhng nghin cu khc v ch tm vo ba gi tr c bn nu trong u bi bo ca ti. Ngay c ba vn ny c nhiu nghin cu c gi tr kho st k lng. Do gii hn v di khng cho php ti i vo chi tit, v th mc ch ca bi ni ca ti ng hn l xy dng mt khung kh bc qua cho nhng tho lun sp ti ca chng ta.

*Bi bo ny l phin bn vit ca bi trnh by chnh ca ti ti hi ngh quc t The Future of Social Change
Visions and Perspectives after 20 Years of Transition: Tng lai ca s Thay i X hi Tm nhn v Trin vng sau 20 Nm Chuyn i ti Bucharest ngy 24-25 thng Su, 2009, do Erste Foundation v Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies t chc. Ti bit n Pl Czegldi, Zsuzsa Dniel, Judit Hrkecz, Judit Kaps, Zdenek Kudrna, Balzs Murakzy, Andrea Remnyi v Dniel Rna v li khuyn c gi tr ca h v s gip ca h trong thu thp s liu v bin tp bn tho. Ti mun cm n Erste Foundation, Collegium Budapest v Central European University v s ng h cng vic nghin cu ca ti, c s cho bi bo ny. [Nguyn Quang A dch, ngoi ch thch ny, cc ch thch nh du * khc l ca ngi dch].

3.2 Libert (T do)

Quyn t do l mt nhm cc quyn. Hy xem xt nhng thay i trong ba nhm.

Cc quyn chnh tr, quyn con ngi. Cng dn ca mt nc cng sn b tc mt cc quyn con ngi c bn. Nhng s thay i cho chng ti tt c nhng quyn chnh tr c bn:

quyn t do ngn lun, quyn t do bo ch, c gii thot khi s kim duyt cng khai hay tr hnh, quyn t do v hi v t chc, quyn t do i li, quyn ph phn chnh ph, quyn phn khng chnh tr. Bc b nh nc c ng v a vo quyn la chn gia cc lc lng chnh tr v thc h cnh tranh nhau. Chng ta chng kin mt ln sng ln v dn ch trong khu vc ca mnh. y ti

khng sa vo tho lun nh ngha t dn ch. Thay vo ti dng mt ch s n gin, c chp nhn rng ri. iu kin ti thiu ca mt nc dn ch l, s ph trut (sa thi chnh ph) khng c thc hin bng git ngi chnh tr, o chnh qun s, m mu trong triu nh ca k thng tr, hay bng khi ngha v trang. Thay vo c th sa thi chnh ph cm quyn bng mt th tc ho bnh, vn minh, c hnh thc ho ca cc cuc bu c cnh tranh. Bng 3.1 gii thiu 10 thnh vin Trung ng u mi u tin ca EU. Trong tt c cc nc chnh ph cm quyn b sa thi bng bu c lp i lp li, iu cung cp bng chng mnh m rng cc nc ny tr thnh cc nn dn ch. Chng nc no trong s c mt lc lng chnh tr c th gn xi mng mnh vo quyn lc mt cch lu di, (p dng cch ni c dng trong ting lng chnh tr Hungary.) Ni cch khc, ng hay lin minh nm quyn khng c kh nng loi b cc c hi ca cc ng tranh ua i lp trong thi gian di.

192

Bng 3.1. Sa thi chnh ph cm quyn qua bu c EU 10, 1989-2008 Cc cuc bu c 1989-2008 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6

Nc Bulgaria Cng ho Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Ba Lan Romania Slovakia

Sa thi bu c 5 4 5 4 4 6 6 5 5

Nm sa thi 1991, 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005 1990, 1992, 1998, 2006 1990, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002 1990, 1995, 1998, 2002 1990, 1993, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 1991, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2007 1990, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 1990, 1992, 1994, 1998, 2006

Ghi ch: Sa thi bu c -Electoral dismissal xut hin khi c (i) mt s sp xp li ln v lin minh cm quyn sau cc cuc bu c, bao gm (ii) s thay i v lnh o chnh ph v (iii) s dch chuyn no v cc u tin chnh sch. Ngun. Bng c Zdenek Kudrna (CEU) su tp trn c s cc Bo co Nc (Country Reports 1990-2008) ca Economist Intelligence Unit.

Trong con mt ca nhiu ngi, c bit l cc th h tr hn, tt c cc quyn chnh tr c bn c coi nh nhng s thc hin nhin ca cuc sng bnh thng. Chng khng l hin nhin! Chng ta phi ngh v Trung Quc. Ti s bin i nn kinh t thnh mt nn kinh t th trng phn thnh din ra ht tc lc nhng khng i cng vi nhng thay i tng t trong lnh vc chnh tr. Cc l k nim ln th 20 ca s sp ch chuyn ch chnh tr ng u trng vi k nim ln th 20 ca cuc tn cng m mu vo nhng ngi biu tnh ng h dn ch Qung trng Thin An Mn. Cc cng dn Trung Quc khng c php t hp trn Qung trng v tng nim. Trung Quc vn l mt nh nc cnh st tn bo. Chng ta, nhng ngi ng u, may mn ng thi c c quyn t do kinh t v chnh tr, nh mt qu tng ln. S trng hp ca hai bin i v i trong cng mt giai on rt ngn v mt lch s, l c nht trong lch s ton cu ca dn ch v ch ngha t bn. By gi chng ta chuyn sang cc chiu kch khc ca quyn t do.

Cc quyn t do khi nghip, t do tham gia th trng, s an ton ca quyn s hu t nhn. Nhng thay i trong lnh vc ny i hi mt s lng ln cc lut mi, mt ngnh t php c lp thc thi cc lut mi v nhiu thay i th ch khc.

193

C nhng nh gi khc nhau v cc thay i trong quyn t do kinh t. y ti ch gii thiu mt iu tra ni ting, Ch s Quyn t do Kinh t-Economic Freedom Index (Bng 2), minh chng s tng ln ng k ca quyn t do kinh t trong vng ca chng ta. C nhiu nghin cu xc minh rng vic thay u th ca s hu cng bng u th ca s hu t nhn, s gia nhp t do v cnh tranh ng gp cho tng trng, i mi, tin b k thut v hiu qu. V th n c mt gi tr cng c ln gip thc hin cc gi tr c bn nh tng phc li vt cht ca cng dn. Trong bi bo ny, tuy vy, ti nhn mnh n gi tr ni ti ca quyn t do kinh doanh. D cc hu qu kinh t c th no, vn tuyt vi c quyn con ngi khi ng mt cng vic kinh doanh, gia nhp th trng, thch thc cc i th cnh tranh, th nghim cc i mi theo sng kin ring ca mnh m khng phi i cc n t hng v s cho php ca b my quan liu. Ti nhn mnh kha cnh o c ny, bi v n khng nhn c s nh gi ng mc bi nh gi k tr mt chiu v nhng thay i kinh t. Bng 3.2. Ch s Quyn T do Kinh t Th gii (EFW) cc nc hu x hi ch ngha Nc Hungary Bulgaria Romania Ba Lan Albania Cng ho Czech Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Trung bnh th gii 1990 5,35 4,08 4,73 4,00 4,12 1995 6,36 4,48 3,98 5,3 4,49 5,81 5,55 4,91 4,89 5,54 4,96 3,9 5,99 2006 7,41 6,54 6,58 6,77 6,99 6,84 7,82 7,2 7,23 7,52 6,4 5,51 6,58

5,68

Ghi ch: Ch s EFW (Economic Freedom of the World) c Fraser Institute (USA) tnh. Quyn t do kinh t c o bi 42 ch tiu trong nm lnh vc: chi tiu chnh ph, kt cu php l v cc quyn ti sn, tip cn n vn, t do thng mi quc t, iu tit tn dng, cc hot ng lao ng v kinh doanh. Trn c s 42 ch tiu ny mt ch s c tnh trong thang gia 10, cc i v 0, cc tiu. Trong thc tin Hong Kong t im cao nht , 8,94, v Zimbabwe thp nht, 2,67 trong nm 2006. V mt m t chi tit hn v phng php lun, xem Gwartney Lawson, R. (2008).* Ngun: Bng c su tp bi Judit Kaps v Pl Czegldi, University of Debrecen, Faculty of Economics. Ngun gc l Gwartney Lawson, R. (2008).

* Ch s EFW ca Vit Nam nm 2006 l 6,46.

194

Quyn t do la chn gia cc hng ho v dch v kh d khc. H thng x hi ch ngha to ra nn kinh t thiu ht. Bn cnh Lin X v Ba Lan, a im gp nhau ca chng ta, Romania, l th d ti t nht [v nn kinh t thiu ht] cho n tn giy pht cui ca ch cng sn. Vic ct in m khng h c bo trc gy ra thit hi to ln cho cc doanh nghip v cc h gia nh. thng xuyn c thiu ht nghim trng v thc phm c bn v cc hng ho tiu dng khc, cc hng di ngi ng xp hng, cc k hng trng khng. mua mt t hay c c cn h ngi ta phi i hng nm tri. Nh vi cc lnh vc c nhc ti trc ca quyn t do, ti coi vic thay nn kinh t thiu ht bng th trng ca nhng ngi mua khng n gin ch l mt s thay i tnh hnh ca nn kinh t. S thay i c nhng hm o c, bi v n tng cng quyn t do ca c nhn.135 Mt nn kinh t thiu ht kinh nin ko theo s tc ot mt quyn con ngi c bn, c th l quyn t do chn mua ci mnh mun mua. Ti kim c thu nhp v ti mun quyt nh ci ti lm vi tin ca mnh. S thiu ht kinh nin c c ngha l s la chn ca ti b s thiu ht hng ho hn ch. Khi chi tiu, ti buc phi s dng hng thay th bt buc, tc l, thay cho mua ci ti mun ti buc phi mua ci ti kim c. Nhng ngi mua thy mnh trong tnh cnh nhc nh. Ngi bn c th sai khin v ngi mua phi c nhn nhng, iu chnh, thm ch th t lt ngi bn. Tt c nhng th bin mt rt nhanh. Chng ta thng xuyn nghe kin sau y. Khng quan trng rng rng buc bt buc l bn cung hay bn cu. Cc rng buc v tnh sn c hay cc rng buc v kh nng c th chi tr y l cc gii hn tng ng nhau ca hnh ng. Ti khng tn thnh quan im ny, bi v s khc bit gia hai loi rng buc l quan trng. Quyn t do la chn tiu dng khng phi l mt s xa hoa ca ngi giu. Nhng ngi giu c hn c th tm cch v phng tin lch qua cc gii hn ca phn phi theo u ngi v tm c mt hng trn ch en hay tr bng ngoi t mnh. Nhng tn tht ca ngi ngho nghim trng hn mt cch tng i, bi v h khng c kh nng chi tiu cc khon thu nhp khim tn v cc khon tit kim cn khim tn hn na ca h theo cch h mun.

135 May mn v khng bit nn kinh t thiu ht t kinh nghim ring ca mnh, cc th tr hn c cc ngun khc, khng ch vn liu kinh t. H c th c tiu thuyt ng Vua Trng ca Gyrgy Dragomn (2005), v ri c l h s c nim v xp hng, v chui ch xut hin cc ca hng trong cc dp c bit, hay v ct in khng th tin on c, c ngha l g nc Romania ca Ceausescu.

195

Hy ti tm tt. Chng ta ang hng cc thnh tu c bn v t do. L mt iu quan st bun, nhng du sao, l mt s thc tm l x hi rng phn ln ngi dn khng gn mt gi tr cao cho quyn t do. Cc gi tr c bn khc c nh gi cao hn. C nhiu iu tra so snh th t cc gi tr trong u c cc c nhn. Ti ch trch mt nghin cu trong Bng 3, iu tra Gi tr Th gii (World Values Survey) ni ting. Bng 3.3. Cc gi tr: Quyn t do versus (i li) trt t Thch t do hn (t l ca ngi tr li, %) 19,8 21,4 21,9 26,3 27,2 27,5 31,6 45,7 48,1 48,9 50,5 40,9 Thch trt t hn (t l ca ngi tr li, %) 66,3 72,4 74,6 64 63,4 68,3 61,2 45,8 42,5 46,2 42,9 54,0

Nc Ba Lan Cng ho Czech Slovakia Bulgaria Hungary ng c Romania Ty c Thu in Hoa K Ty Ban Nha Th gii (trung bnh)

Ghi ch: Thi gian iu tra: 1997-1998. Cu hi sau y c hi t nhng ngi tr li: Nu bn phi la chn, bn s ni ci g l trch nhim quan trng nht ca chnh ph: 1. duy tr trt t trong x hi; HAY: 2. tn trng quyn t do ca c nhn. Ngun: World Values Survey (1995).

Bng cho thy mt cch r rng rng mt s nh hn ng k cc c nhn gn tm quan trng cao nht cho quyn t do vng hu x hi ch ngha so vi trong cc nc t bn ch ngha t trc 1989. y l nhng nhim v ln cho gio dc, hnh thnh s hiu bit tt hn v tm quan trng ca quyn t do. Phi bt u trong trng tiu hc hay thm ch nh tr, tip tc tt c cc bc hc trung hc v cao hc, kt thc vi tt c nh hng do bo ch c in, cc phng tin truyn thng in t v internet to ra. N l mt nhim v chung ca cc gio vin v cc gio s i hc, cc chnh tr gia v cc nh bo, bt c ai c nh hng n t duy ca ngi dn. C nhng du hiu tt v s tin b v, ng thi, c cc du hiu xu ng s lm nn lng st cnh nhau. S ganh ua ca cc ng c cc tc ng ph gh tm v tham nhng, v trch nhim v m dn. C nhng lung tht vng v nn dn ch ngh

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vin phng khong cnh tranh. Mt s tng lp c ao mt lnh t mnh, mt lut nghim khc v ch c trt t. ng lo ngi v tht vng l, cc nhm cnh hu cc oan, thng phiu bu vi mt thut hng bin bn thu th ch chng tc, chng-Do Thi, chng-Di gan v chng t bn ch ngha, nhn c s ng h ng k. Cnh Hu cc oan trong cc nc hu x hi ch ngha ang li dng lm dng cc thnh tu v cc quyn t do ngn lun v lp hi tn cng nn tng ca cc quyn con ngi v quyn t do. ng tic, s au kh do khng hong hin thi gy ra li to ra mnh t mu m cho cc cuc tn cng ny v c th dn ng cho s bo ngc. Khng ch nc hu x hi ch ngha ny hay nc khc, m ton Chu u phi cnh gic. Hy nh Weimar!*

3.3 galit (Bnh ng)

Ch ngha x hi kiu-Soviet chc chn khng l mt h thng bnh ng. Quy tc c cng b l phn phi hng ho theo lao ng. Nh th l mt nhuyn tc phn phi theo cng trng, mi vic o cng trng trong thc tin ca ch ngha x hi hin tn tuy vy, li nm trong quyn lc ca nh nc-ng. Thang o ny cho php thu nhp nhiu hn nhiu cho anh hng lao ng x hi ch ngha so vi cng nhn trung bnh, cho b th ng qun nhiu hn cho gio s i hc. Cc thnh vin ca nomenclature (tng lp lnh o) c nhng u i vt cht, khng phi l lng cao hn m l cc iu kin nh tt hn, tip cn n cc hng ho khan him, c u tin dng cc bnh vin v cc khu ngh mt tt hn. ng, c s bt bnh ng no , nhng xt v tng thu nhp v phn b ca ci ca ton b dn c, th ci thc s c trng cho x hi ng hn l mt loi co bng mu xm no , mt s km nn quyt lit s bt bnh ng thu nhp. S khc bit gia lng ca ngi ng u mt cng ty ln v lng ca nhn vin trung bnh khng qu ln. Nh qun l c hiu qu v km hiu qu, nh i mi v lnh o cng nghip hay nng nghip bo th nhn c ng lng t nhiu nh nhau, v nu c s lch nh khi mc trung bnh, th iu ph thuc vo lng trung thnh hn l vo thnh tch, hc hnh hay vo s chm ch v i mi. Tnh trng bt bnh ng thu nhp thay i y kch tnh sau khi thay i h thng trong mt thi gian rt ngn. u tin hy ng ti vi con s trong Bng 3.4.
* Weimar mt thnh ph c nh c, ni thng 10-1918 Hin php ca ch c c thng qua, thit lp ch cng ho i ngh Weimar ging nh Anh, nhng ri n thng 9-1930 ng pht xt ginh c 18,3% phiu bu; ri c 33,1% trong bu c nm 1932, sau Hitler ln nm quyn; nm 1937 bn Nazi xy dng tri tp trung Buchenwall cch Weimar c 8km v t 1938 n 1945 tri ny giam cm khong 240.000 ngn ngi v s ngi b th tiu y l trn 56 ngn.

197

C nhng khc bit ln gia cc nc, v cc l do m ti khng tho lun trong bi bo ny. Nu chng ta t cc nc hu x hi ch ngha vo trong mt danh mc nhiu nc hn, k c cc nc khng tri qua giai on x hi ch ngha, v xp hng cc nc theo ch s bt bnh ng, chng ta s thy cc nc ca chng ta phn tn nhng v tr rt khc nhau ca danh mc di. Chc chn c cc nhn t hot ng khng lin quan n s thay i h thng. Bng 3.4 Bt bnh ng tiu dng Ch s Gini cho ch tiu tiu dng u ngi c th so snh c Nc Bulgaria Cng ho Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Ba Lan Romania Slovenia Slovakia
Ngun: Mitra, Pradeep v Yemtsov, Ruslan (2006).

1987-1990 0,245 0,197 0,24 0,214 0,24 0,248 0,255 0,232 0,22 0,816

2003 0,351 0,234 0,402 0,268 0,379 0,318 0,356 0,352 0,22 0,299

Nhng nu thay cho so snh cc nc chng ta xem s liu ca mi nc theo thi gian v so snh tnh hnh trc s sp ca ch ngha cng sn, vi tnh hnh khong mi lm nm sau , th cc s trong mi hng l khc nhau ng k, hay trong mt s nc thm ch khc nhau mt cch k cc. Chng cho thy tc ng su sc ca s thay i h thng. c nhiu tc ng, dn n s tng ln khng khip ca s bt bnh ng. (Xem Kolosi Tth 2008, Milanovic 1999, Milanovic Ersado, 2009, Mitra Yemtsov 2006.) S thay i a nhng ngi thng ln pha trc: cc nh kinh doanh thnh cng, cc c nhn c bit ti kinh doanh, cc nh i mi a ra cc sn phm v cng ngh mi, m cc th trng mi, cc nh lnh o cng nghip v thng mi c kh nng thch ng nhanh vi mi trng kinh t mi, cc th trng ni a v nc ngoi. Mt s tn dng tt kin thc ngoi ng, hay cc k nng s dng cng ngh thng tin hin i. Tt c ngng ti nng v n lc c bit ny c nn kinh t th trng thng mt cch ho phng. ch l mt trong cc c hnh ln ca th trng: phn thng cao vt tri cho thnh tch l thng. N cung cp mt khuyn khch khng th thiu c cho i mi, cnh tranh v hiu qu.

198

Nhng tt nhin, bn cnh cc phn thng cho cc cng trng ch thc cn c cc ngun khc cho thnh cng ti chnh. Mt s ngi cc k khn li trong qu trnh t nhn ho, kim c cc ti sn thuc s hu nh nc trc kia vi gi r hay nh cho khng, gn vi hnh ng n cp. c nhng ngi dng mt cch ranh mnh cc quan h c nhn c xy dng trc y trong nc hay vi cc nc khc thuc ch Soviet. Nhng ngi khc chng e d t lt cc quan chc nh nc v cc chnh tr gia. Hai thnh phn ny, phn sng c ch v phn ti ng khinh b, khng th c tch bit rch ri. Tt c cc nhn t tinh khit v bn thu, trng v en c pha trn thnh mt hn tp xm nhp nhp. Trong mi trng hp, phn trn ca phn b chng ta thy thu nhp rt cao, cao gp nhiu ln thu nhp di thi x hi ch ngha. Cng c nhng thay i nhc nhi phn di ca phn b do nhiu nhn t gy ra. Thay i quan trng nht xut hin trong th trng lao ng. khng c ton dng lao ng n gin, nhng c s thiu ht lao ng kinh nin trong cc nn kinh t x hi ch ngha trng thnh. Tht nghip n nh mt c nh khng khip i vi x hi cha quen vi hin tng gy au kh ny. Mt s ph n t nguyn rt lui khi th trng lao ng, v m trch chc nng x hi ca ngi v v ngi m lm vic ch ring trong h gia nh mnh. Nhng ngoi phn t nguyn rt lui ny, thiu cng n vic lm dn n s tng mnh v t l tht nghip, v tng mnh v tht nghip c khai bo. Mt s c nhn b h cp theo mt ngha no ; h mt v tr cao hn ca mnh trc y v buc phi lm nhng cng vic c lng t hn. Ch yu do h qu ca cc giai on lm pht gi tr thc ca cc khon lng hu gim i, v hng triu ngi gi ngp su trong ngho kh. Chng ta cng chng kin cc dng khc nhau ca nn phn bit. Trong khi bnh thng mi cng dn trong cc nc dn ch c cc quyn ngang nhau, chng ta thy s phn bit i vi ngi Di gan (Roma, Gypsy). C mt thiu s ln ngi Di gan Hungary, Romania, Slovakia v cc nc hu x hi ch ngha khc. T l tht nghip gia nhng ngi Di gan l cao hn t l trong phn cn li ca dn c rt nhiu. Nhiu nh nghin cu nghin cu nh hng ca bin i hu x hi ch ngha ln ti phn phi thu nhp, nh th c vn liu kinh nghim phong ph v ch ny. Khng cng trnh no bc b khng nh chung: s bt bnh ng tng ln ng k. S gia tng h ngn cch gia ngi giu v ngi ngho mt phn do qu trnh chuyn i gy ra, do nhng chuyn ng mau l v trit , nhng thng trm ca x hi, v v th c th ch hot ng mt cch nht thi. Nhng gia cc nhn t nhn qu cng c cc nt c trng bn lu ca

199

h thng t bn ch ngha. Ch ngha t bn c mt xu hng c hu v gy ra s bt bnh ng thu nhp cao hn ch ngha x hi nhiu. Bng 3.5. Cng lun v hot ng ca chnh ph gim bt bnh ng thu nhp Thi im iu tra 2006 1,55 1,66 1,71 1,78 1,88 1,89 1,91 1,91 1,95 2,00 2,04 2,07 2,07 2,15 2,25 2,27 2,28 2,29 2,37 2,43 2,52 2,54 2,92 1,86 1,85 2,12

Nc Bulgaria Hungary Ukraine B o Nha Nga Ty Ban Nha Cyprus Php Slovenia Ba Lan Estonia Slovakia Phn Lan o B Thu in Ireland Thu S c Na Uy H Lan Vng Quc Anh an Mch ng Trung u (trung bnh) ng Trung u (bnh quun gia quyn) Th gii (bnh quun gia quyn)

Ghi ch: Cu hi sau y c hi t nhng ngi tr li: Bn hy ni, mc no bn ng vi tuyn b sau y: Chnh ph phi c bin php gim s chnh lch v cc mc thu nhp: 1 rt ng ; 2 ng ; 3 chng ng cng khng bt ng; 4 khng ng ; 5 rt khng ng . Ngun. European Social Survey 2006/2007.

Li tuyn b v s bt bnh ng nh mt khuynh hng c tnh h thng ca ch ngha t bn khng ng rng chng ta phi ng v ch nhn tnh cht ny ca h thng mt cch bt lc. N khng th b loi tr m khng c s lt bn thn h thng, nhng n c th

200

c sa chng mc no . Hot ng ca chnh ph c th lm gim mc bt bnh ng. Trn khp th gii mt t l ln dn c i hi chnh sch ti phn phi ca chnh ph. Bng 3.5 cho thy rng i hi hnh ng ca chnh ph nhm gim bt bnh ng a s cc nc hu x hi ch ngha r rng mnh hn trong a s cc nc khng c qu kh cng sn. im trung bnh ng u hng nhiu hn n chnh sch kinh t san bng so vi trung bnh th gii. (Tuy vy, lu rng mt s nc u chu, th d Ty Ban Nha, Cyprus, Php v Phn Lan, cn vt trc mt s nc hu x hi ch ngha vi cng lun t hng v san bng hn.) C li ku gi ti din thng xuyn: Hy ngi giu tr! khng n gin l mt i hi nghim tc ca ti chnh cng lnh mnh: thu phi c thu ni vic thu thu hu hiu l kh thi. N l mt khu hiu cm xc: mt s ngi cho l bt cng rng ngi giu li giu c. V th chng ta tc ot mt phn cng nhiu t thu nhp v ca ci ca h, th chng ta cng cm thy sng hn. l t tng chnh yu trong thut hng bin chnh tr dn tu. Ti khng ng vi nhng khu hiu ny. Ti cm thy, ging nh nhiu ngi khc, rng chng ta khng nhn c s tho mn thm no t cc bin php Robin Hood. Cng c quan trng nht ci thin phn b thu nhp l to ra nhiu bnh ng hn v c hi. Gio dc ng vai tr ct yu. Mt chn l tm thng nhng d sao vn l tuyn b quan trng nht rng s bt bnh ng bt u vi cc c hi hc khng ngang nhau. C nhng nghin cu quan trng v rt thuyt phc v ch ny. Cc iu kin ban u ti hn ca tr em sinh ra trong mt gia nh ngho hay thm ch m ch to ra mt s bt li ngay t u so vi tr em ca cc gia nh c s gio dc cao hn. Cc c hi gim thm na v kh nng thp hn c nhn vo cc trng tt v vo cc i hc. Ch ni v cc quyn ngang nhau l khng , m cn n cc bin php ng h tch cc. Ngoi nhng chnh lch ln trong gio dc thng thng theo quy c, chng ta phi nh n s bt bnh ng v tri thc theo mt ngha rng hn. Trong x hi cng ngh cao ca chng ta, c nhn c trang b tt th no v ngh thut s dng my tnh, internet v cc cng c khc ca cng ngh thng tin hin i s quyt nh cc c hi t thu nhp cao hn. Cc nhn t ny c th c mt tc ng mnh hn nhiu ln phn b thu nhp so vi tnh lu tin hay lu thoi ca thu. Mt s kt qu xc thc chng li tham nhng s ng gp vo vic lm gim bt bt mn do bt bnh ng gy ra.136 N s cng c nim tin chc v mt mi quan h mnh gia

136 C mt cm nhn mnh m v s bt mn v mt lng tin vo cc nh ch nh mt phn ng vi s trn lan ca tham nhng, trn thu v s vi phm hng lot cc chun mc c nh nc lm ng dung th (xem

201

thnh tch thc v thu nhp cao, ni kim c mt gia ti ln v thu nhp khng l bng cc cng c bt chnh ch l ngoi l.

3.4 Fraternit (Bc i)

Hay chng ta c th p dng mt t ng ngha, c s dng thng thng by gi, tnh on kt. nh o c v ngha v ca ti chng t tnh on kt i vi ng bo ca ti l mt trong nhng vn phc tp nht ca x hi ni chung, v ca x hi hu x hi ch ngha ni ring. Di sn ca chng ta t ch ngha cng sn l mt nh nc phc li non. l ci tn ti t ra lc bt u chuyn i, nhn c s chp nhn ca mt s ng nghip, v s bc b gin d ca nhng ngi khc. Ti to ra cc k th vi kh nhiu bi vit ca mnh, nhng chng tuyn b no ca ti li to ra nhiu n vy nh tuyn b ny. Nh nc x hi ch ngha php in ho trong lut, v chp nhn trong thc tin, quyn ca cng dn i vi cc dng khc nhau ca cc dch v v h tr. Tt c mi ngi u c quyn hng chm sc sc kho min ph, nhng trong nhiu phng khm v bnh vin cht lng iu tr khng va , cc bnh nhn phi chu ng vic xp hng ch di v khu bnh vin cht chi, cc thit b lc hu, cc iu kin v sinh khng tho mn, s thiu thn thuc. Tt c mi ngi u c quyn hng gio dc min ph, nhng cht lng gio dc rt khng u, gio vin c tr lng thp v lm vic qu ti, mc no xut hin s chn lc c hi (adverse selection) v gio vin, khng phi nhng ngi c kh nng nht chn ngh ny. Cc trng qu ng hc sinh nn cht chi v c trang b bn gh ti tn, ni chi n cng ngh thng tin hin i. Tin thu nh c bao cp trong chung c l c th chi tr c cho tt c mi ngi, nhng nhng ngi tr phi i nhiu nm tri c c quyn chuyn n mt cn h ring ca mnh, vic xy dng nh to ra cc to nh c cht lng thp khc thng. X nghip hay chnh quyn thnh ph c c s gi tr ban ngy hay vn tr min ph hay vi gi danh ngha cho tt c cc gia nh c yu cu. Trong khu vc nh nc (k c trong cc x nghip quc doanh) mi nhn vin n tui hu c tr lng hu nh nc, t ngn sch hay t qu hu bng c h tr bi bo lnh ca nh nc hay t x nghip.
Tth 2009). Cm nhn ny ca cng chng, cng vi cc th khc, gp phn vo s phn i kch lit gia tng v ln ting hn chng li s gia tng bt bnh ng.

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Ti gi t chc nh nc cung cp cc khon tr cp (v cc khon min ph hay gn nh min ph khc) theo phong cch tm tt l mt nh nc phc li non. Ti gi l non bi v ti, ging nh nhiu nh kinh t hc khc, nhn ra rng mc pht trin ca cc nn kinh t x hi ch ngha khng c kh nng thc hin cc li ha v cc iu khon c lit k. Trn thc t nh nc hoc khng c kh nng thc hin cc li ha ca mnh v cc quyn th hng ph qut, hoc, khi c th thc hin, th thc hin chng vi mc cht lng km, thp. S khc bit r rt gia quyn c hng v s cung cp thc t, gia cc li ha ca nh nc v s sn c tht ca cc ngun lc vt cht l cc nt c trng h thng ca ch ngha x hi. V di sn ny cng l mt trong nhng vn nghim trng nht ca cc nh hoch nh chnh sch trong qu trnh chuyn i hu x hi ch ngha.137 i theo cch no t cc iu kin ban u ca mt nh nc phc li non? Ti khng c nh ng h mt chng trnh no , trnh by cc l l tn thnh v phn i ca ring ti, trong bi bo ny. Ti lm iu trong nhng nghin cu khc. Mc ch ca ti l cho mt tng quan gi bn loi thi chnh tr v nh nc phc li, phn bit hai trng hp thun khit v hai trng hp pha trn. C hai cch tip cn thun khit. Cch tip cn th nht l t b nguyn tc v cc quyn hng ph qut. Thay n bng nguyn tc h tr ch cho nhng ngi cn n s tr gip ca nh nc. ng, chng ta cm thy Fraternit, tt c chng ta u l anh em, nhng hu ht anh em ti khng cn n s h tr ca ti, h t lo cho mnh. Ti sn sng gip khi ti thy anh/ch ta khng c kh nng gii quyt cc vn ca mnh. Hy ti minh ho tng ny bng vi th d: Quyn ph qut i vi gio dc i hc min ph phi b loi b. Thay vo , phi ng hc ph. Nhng ngi khng c kh nng chi tr hc ph c th nhn c khon vay sinh vin c th c tr t thu nhp cao hn trong tng lai. Ngoi ra, c th cp cc hc bng c bit cho nhng ngi (v ch cho nhng ngi) khng c kh nng sng cuc sng bnh thng ca mt sinh vin m khng c s tr gip ti chnh c bit. Nu c quyn hng th ph qut i vi chm sc min ph cho tt c tr em, th tt c cc gia nh, giu v ngho, u phi nhn c mt khon h tr t nh nc theo s tr em ca h, chng phi c tip cn n nh tr min ph v vn vn. Trong trng hp ca nguyn tc cung cp hn ch hn, th ch cc gia nh khng c kh nng chi tr cc chi

137 Haggard v Kaufman (2008) cung cp mt m t ton din v su sc v nhng ci cch nh nc phc li vng hu x hi ch ngha, so snh chng vi nhng thay i theo hng tng t M- Latin v ng-.

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ph nui dy con v khng th chi tr cc dch v gi tr mi nhn c s tr gip c bit t nh nc. a s cc nh kinh t hc v cc nh ci cch theo hng th trng thc dc hng ny. N c chp nhn bi cc chnh tr gia thc s bo th tha nhn tn iu phng khong [liberal credo] (dng t phng khong, t do - liberal theo din gii u chu, ch khng theo din gii M.) Theo cch tip cn ny, th nh nc phc li hu x hi ch ngha s co li mt t l ph hp hn vi mc pht trin ca nn kinh t. C cc l l thc dng ng h cch tip cn th nht: tnh lnh mnh ca chnh sch ti kho, cc sut thu thp hn kch thch u t, cng n vic lm v tinh thn kinh doanh khi nghip. V ri chng ta cng nghe cc l l ly t trit l chnh tr: tn trng tnh t tr ca c nhn v quyn t do la chn, bc b thi gia trng ca nh nc, v cui cng s can thip ca cc chnh tr gia vo lnh vc ring t v quyn t quyt c nhn. Cch tip cn th hai l duy tr tt c cc quyn hng th ph qut v chng li mt cch gay gt mi s ct xn. Thm ch s tng cng cc quyn hng th c th c xem xt. Nhng ngi ng h sn sng bo m cc khon chi ln bng thu cao hn. l cch tip cn c nhiu nh x hi hc, v c nhiu bc s, gio vin, ngi lm cng tc x hi, thnh vin ca cc ngh tn tm lm vic trong cc khu vc khc nhau ca nh nc phc li, ng h. V phn phm vi chnh tr, cch tip cn ny c Cnh T C, tc l cc chnh tr gia vn trung thnh vi thc h ca cc nh X hi Dn ch Bc u v c ca cc nm 1950, tuyn b r rng v ng h mt cch kin nh. Nhng ngi ng h cch tip cn th hai dn ra cc l l thc dng. Thm tra kh nng ti chnh, kim tra tnh t cch (hng) ca cc nhm c bit cn tr gip i hi hot ng ca cc b my quan liu khng l. Phn pht cc ch li ph qut l n gin hn nhiu v gn vi t chi ph hnh chnh hn. Mt s ngi cho rng thng d t c s ng h ngh vin cho cc quyn hng ph qut hn l cho khon d phng dnh cho mc ch ring. V trong trng hp ny chng ta cng nghe cc l l ly t cc tuyn b trit l chnh tr. Dng t duy ng h tnh t cch ph qut hng cc dch v phc li c gc r trong t tng v mt ngha su xa hn ca bnh ng: mi c nhn c quyn hng cng nhm cc quyn. Nh nc c cc ngha v ging ht nhau i vi mi cng dn ca mnh. Nhng ngi ng h cch tip cn th hai nhn mnh mi lin kt cht ch gia hai mc tiu, v cui cng gia hai gi tr do khu hiu cch mng ra; c th l gia galit v Fraternit, gia bnh ng v on kt. Trong mc trc ca bi bo ny ti nhc n s bt bnh ng c o bng ch s thu nhp bng tin (th d, h s Gini ca phn b thu nhp 204

bng tin). Tuy nhin, mt phn ln tiu dng c cc h gia nh nhn bng hin vt. Vic s dng dch v sc kho min ph, gio dc min ph, li ch ca cc khon bao cp khc nhau gim chi ph ca cc khon chi nht nh u ng gp vo vic lm ngang bng tiu dng h gia nh. bao ph ca cc quyn hng ph qut cng rng, quy m tng i ca nh nc phc li cng ln th bnh ng cng thnh hnh. Cng Fraternit (bc i), th cng galit (bnh ng). Bng 3.6. nh gi v trch nhim c nhn i li ch ngha gia trng Thi gian iu tra Nc Belarus Bulgaria Cng ho Czech Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Ba Lan Romania Nga Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Trung ng u (trung bnh) Trung ng u ( bnh quun gia quyn theo dn c) 2004 2,96 2,56 2,55 2,43 2,23 2,30 2,19 2,4 2,85 2,67 2,34 2,72 2,98 2,55 2,67

Ghi ch: Cu hi sau y c hi t nhng ngi tr li: Bn hy ni mnh ng vi la chn kh d no: Cc c nhn phi chm lo cho mnh v k sinh nhai ca mnh. 1 dt khot ng 2 hi ng hay Nh nc phi c trch nhim v an ninh vt cht cho mi ngi. 3 hi ng 4 dt khot ng . Ngun: New Europe Barometer (2009).

Nhng ngi ng h cch tip cn th hai l ng khi cho rng a s ngi dn cc nc hu x hi ch ngha (trong Ukraine, Belarus, Nga v Romania l nhiu nht) i

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hi mt thi gia trng t nh nc.138 iu ny c ch ra trong s liu iu tra trong Bng 3.6. Nh th thut hng bin v chnh sch kinh t gia trng c dn chng a thch, v c th mang li phiu bu cho nhng ngi ch trng v thc hin n.139 Ti t cnh nhau hai lp trng r rng v minh bch, c hai u c th c ng h bng cc l l thc dng v bng lp lun trit hc su sc. ng tic, tr chi chnh tr khng c chi trn bnh din ca tranh lun lnh mnh, bnh tnh v thc dng, cng chng trong khng kh ti lnh, trong sch ca cc nh o c. Tr chi c chi trn v i ca cc u s chnh tr, u tranh v cuc sng hay ci cht chnh tr, v phiu bu, nhm t c thng li bu c v hy vng tai ho cho i th chnh tr. Cc nhm ng h mt cch khng m h v kin nh cho hai cch tip cn thun khit ny l nhng ngi chi quan trng ( mt s nc trong cc giai on no mt nhm hay nhm khc thm ch c th l ngi chi p o). Tuy nhin, c cc nhm chnh tr khc (cc ng, hay cc phe nhm bn trong mt ng, hay cc phong tro phi-ng phi khc nhau), m khng th c phn vo mt trong hai loi thun khit ny. Cc chnh tr gia, c trong chnh ph v trong i lp u tri nghim s phn khng mnh m chng li ct gim nh nc phc li. Tt c mi ngi u bit, thuy th vn phi nhc n, rng chng ta i mt y vi hiu ng bnh rng mt chiu - ratchet-effect: thay i theo mt chiu l c th, nhng quay tr li v tr trc l khng th. L d v mt chnh tr v rt c lng dn chng tng chi tiu nhm tng cng nh nc phc li, v l kh v mt chnh tr v rt khng c lng dn ct cc khon chi tiu ny. Hn chi bn cnh hai cch tip cn thun khit va c nhc ti chng ta thy mi ni nhiu th d v thi chnh tr khng r rng, mp m. Thuc v cch tip cn loi th ba ca thi chnh tr l cc nh dn tu ha duy tr y hay thm ch m rng tt c cc quyn th hng, duy tr nh nc phc li c quy m qu ln m khng tit l ngun cp ti chnh cho cc khon chi tiu. L trng hp t xu hn nu h trnh by cc li ha ho v trch nhim ch trong mt chin dch bu c hay trong cc cuc tn cng mnh lit cc cuc ci cch phng khong khi ngi trn cc hng ngh ca phe i lp trong ngh vin. Trng hp thm ho xut hin khi mt ng dn tu
138 Hy ti trch dn cc li ca Isaiah Berlin (1969): V nu bn cht ca con ngi l, h l nhng sinh vt t tr...th khng g ti t hn i x vi h gi nh h l khng t tr, m l cc vt t nhin,...m cc la chn ca h c th b cc nh cai tr ca h thao tng... ch ngha gia trng l chuyn ch, khng phi v n p bc hn ch chuyn ch trn tri, tn bo, cha c khai sng,... m bi v n l mt s s nhc i vi nim ca ti v bn thn mnh vi t cch l mt con ngi. ng bun n th no rng ch c t ngi c th hiu v tha nhn t tng ny. 139 Mt nh kinh t hc M v mt nh kinh t hc c (Alesina Fuchs-Schndeln 2007), trong nghin cu ng ch ca h, h thy rng ngi dn phn pha ng ca nc c (tc l, Cng ho Dn ch c trc y) i mt nh nc gia trng mnh hn rt nhiu so vi nhng ngi phn pha Ty, ni cc gi tr v cc k vng c x hi ho theo mt cch khc.

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nh vy thng trong bu c v ri s thc hin cc li ha v trch nhim ca mnh dn n thm ht ti kho thm ho v n tt c cc hu qu kinh t v m ti t gn lin khc. c trng chnh ca cch tip cn loi th t l thiu trung thnh vi cc nguyn tc. Mt phn ng c nhiu ngi bit i vi cc la chn kh khn l s khng nht qun ca mt ng chnh tr, v/hoc mt chnh ph. Mt bc theo cch tip cn th nht, (ct cc chi ph no ca nh nc phc li) trong thng Ging, v ri mt bc khc theo chiu ngc li, (tng cc chi ph khc no ca nh nc phc li) trong thng Hai. Cc chnh tr gia thuc loi th t mun ly lng cc c tri cnh Hu vo cc ngy chn v c tri cnh T C vo cc ngy l. S do d, dao ng, li ni v vic lm khng th tin on c l cc nt c trng ca thi chnh tr . N dn n s ln ln gia cc c tri, nhng ngi khng hiu ci g ang din ra. S ci thin tm thi v s a thch ca dn chng c th xut hin bi nhng ngi ng h b la di ca Cch tip cn th nht, hay ca Cch tip cn th hai thun khit, nhng ngi lc ban u khng nhn thy mt cch r rng cc chnh tr gia ang i theo hng no. Nhng sm mun h hiu rng h b cc bc zigzag tin v lui gia hai nhm mc tiu i lp nhau lm lc li. Theo cm nhn ca ti l ci xy ra vi Nn Dn ch X hi Mi kiu Tony Blair hin i trong cc nc khc nhau, k c mt s nc hu x hi ch ngha, bn cnh cc nc khc, nc ti, Hungary. Chnh sch lin quan n Nh nc Phc li trong nhiu kha cnh l khng nht qun, bi v n tm cch tho mn hai nhm gi tr i lp, loi tr ln nhau, v ng thi ly lng hai nhm c tri ln c cc s thch cn bn khc nhau v ght ln nhau. Khu hiu ca Cch mng Php cung cp gin gio cho bi pht biu ca ti. Trong khng kh nng bng ca nm 1789 v cc nm tip theo chng ai n liu ba yu t ca khu hiu c nht qun hay chng mu thun vi nhau. Hy nh thi gian lch s: l gn mt th k trc khi Bismarck a ra bo him x hi c, hn mt th k trc khi cc nh Dn ch -X hi Bc u v Anh bt u xy dng nh nc phc li hin i. Nhng ngy nay, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch trong chuyn bay ng di v s bin i cu trc khng th lng trnh vn ca tnh nht qun. Nu h th lm vy, h phi tr mt ci gi chnh tr.

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3.5 Bc tranh chung v s tin on?

Ti sung sng nu c th trnh by tin on ring ca mnh, tm nhn ring ca mnh v tng lai. Nhng ti e rng trong lnh vc ti chn cho bi bo ny ti khng nhn thy r ci g sp xy ra trong tng lai. Nhn quanh vng bin i hu x hi ch ngha, chng ta c mt n tng rt hp. Chc chn khng c chiu hng ng u no ca nhng thay i lin quan n nh nc phc li. Cc n lc loi tr cc quyn th hng ph qut v rng ri no xut hin mt s nc ti mt thi im no , trong khi cc nc khc cc quyn x hi mi c a thm vo danh mc di ca cc quyn th hng c tha k t ch x hi ch ngha. C cc bc tin theo mt hng, tip theo l s o ngc v cc bc theo chiu ngc li. Tnh hn tp ca cc chuyn ng theo c hai chiu l hin nhin trc 2006. Dn c trong khu vc tri qua thi nhng k kh khn. H phi i mt vi s ti phn b kh khn v cc ngun lc, nhng thay i y kch tnh v quyn s hu, s thiu cc nh ch c nng lc trong mt thi gian, ti t thm bi nhng kh khn nghim trng do suy thoi bin i gy ra trong cc nm 1990 tt c cc nhn t ny gp phn vo s sa st sn lng u ra, do suy thoi bin i, su hn suy thoi sau 1929 nhiu, suy thoi ti t nht trong phn trc ca lch s kinh t. S kin ny trng vi chn thng v tht nghip gy sc cho hang triu ngi quen vi an ton vic lm y . Tc ng ca c n kp ca suy thoi v mt an ninh vic lm c lm du bt mc no bi cc dch v ca nh nc phc li c tha k. (Xem Kean Prasad 2002 v Vanhuysse 2006.) Nhng ngi mt vic lm ch t khng b b ri cho cc phng tin ngho nn ca chnh h v chm sc sc khe, v h tr tr em c tip tc. Nhiu ngi c kh nng thnh ngi tht nghip trn thot do v hu sm hay do cc s hu tr cho ngi khuyt tt v b my quan liu nhm mt lm ng nu cc con ng thot ny khng hon ton sch s. Ngoi cc quyn th hng c tha k cc quyn mi c to ra, th d, bo him v/hoc h tr ca chnh ph cho ngi tht nghip, hay cc khon bao cp ln cho nhng ngi tiu dng nng lng, chng li ch t mt phn tc ng ca t do ha gi c, cc khon tr cp mi cho xy dng nh t v vn vn. S tc gin v tht vng c th mnh hn rt nhiu nu gi nh khng c nh nc phc li vi tt c cc quyn c v cc quyn th hng mi c to ra. l mt nhn t quan trng gii thch s gn b ca mt phn rt ln dn c vi nh nc phc li.

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Vo u thp nin u tin ca th k 21, s tng tin kinh t bt u. Nhng kt qu c ch u tin ca s thay i t h thng x hi ch ngha khng hiu qu sang ch ngha t bn, ha hn tnh hiu qu hn v tng trng nhanh hn va mi bt u l ra. V ri c nh mi, khng hong ti chnh ton cu v suy thoi, t ngt ging xung. Vn cha ai bit liu s st gim sn lng s su hn sau 1929, hay thm ch su hn s gim st sn xut trong vng hu x hi ch ngha sau khi thay i ch hay khng nhng n gy ra nhng rc ri ln v nhiu au kh cho hng triu ngi. Cn c vo kinh nghim au n th hai ca s thay i t ngt, rc ri kinh t khng ng v ca cm nhn gy lo u v bt trc, th i hi v mt nh nc bo v s chc chn tr nn mnh hn v ln ting hn. Cc chnh tr gia s chu p lc kp. Phn ln cng dn sn sng t b nhng i hi v s t quyt c nhn v nhn nhng i vi t do, v sn sng cho mt nh nc thm ch gia trng hn trc m nhn trch nhim v phc li v an ninh. Nhiu nc s t b cc k hoch ci cch nh nc phc li heo hng gim quy m, loi tr mt s quyn th hng ph qut vn vn. Mt khc, sm hay mun cc chnh tr gia (ch t nhng ngi c bu ln nm quyn v nhn trch nhim v thu v chi ca nh nc) s cm thy p lc d di ca tnh hnh kinh t v m. S chi tiu ho phng theo tinh thn ca galit v Fraternit mang mt ci nhn ghi gi gy hong s: thm ht ngn sch, t l n/GDP cao, thm ht ti khon vng lai tng cao, cc nh u t khng sn lng mua tri phiu chnh ph v vn vn. Cc th trng ti chnh, khu vc ngn hng, s giao dch chng khon, cc nh ch ti chnh khc nhau, cc ngn hng u t, cc nh mi gii v i ng cc nh phn tch lm vic cho cc nh ch ny khng b mm i bi cm tnh cao thng vi cng dn ng bo ca h v bi cc mc ch t thin. H chng tn nhn hay cng khng nhn tm nh c v trong cc tranh bim ha c nghit v thin v trong thut hung bin chnh tr dn ty h ch lm cng vic ca mnh. Trong mi trng hp, nhng kh khn kinh t v m tht cng vi ph phn ln ting v cc cnh bo n t cng ng kinh doanh-ti chnh s y cc chnh tr gia theo hng ngc li. Chi tiu phi b ct xung n mc, m ng thi thu c th gim to nhiu d a hn cho u t t nhn, gip sn xut thng tin. Kt qu ca nhng p lc mu thun nhau ny s l g? Cu tr li chn tht duy nht l s th nhn: ti khng bit. C l s khc nhau mi nc, ph thuc vo su ca khng hong, vo t l ca nhng ngi thng v nhng k thua, vo s phn b ca cc c tri theo hai hng thun khit, Hng 1 hay Hng 2, hay theo Hng 3 dn ty hay theo Hng 4 ca cc ng v phong tro khng nht qun. C l s c cc nc may mn ni mt chnh khch ln xut hin, i mt vi cc la chn khc nghit trong ngn hn m khng mt tm 209

nhn lch s rng v di hn. V s c cc nc khng may do cc chnh tr gia v ang b ln ln, b lc trong m cung ca nhng p lc mu thun nhau, b kt trong cc c cu quan liu ng cng, tr tr v cng nhc. Ti e rng ti phi kt thc bi ni ca mnh vi mt du hi. Ai bit ci g sp xy ra vi cc t tng ca Libert, galit v Fraternit trong khu vc thng li v b rc ri ca chng ta?

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4. K. Marx di con mt ca mt tr thc ng u*

Ti e rng tt c nhng g c th ni v Karl Marx c vit c ri. Hng ngn bi bo, bi nghin cu v hng trm cun sch c xut bn trong c th thy mi th t ca tng cung nhit, phn tch khch quan, n cm th gin d. Ci ti c th thm vo kho ti liu mnh mng ny ch l quan im c nhn m t ti xem xt cng trnh ca Marx. Ti l mt ngi Hungary, mt ngi ng u, sinh nm 1928, ti bt u tr thnh ngi ln vo cui Chin tranh Th gii ln th hai. Nhng din bin lch s ln gy nhng n tng su sc ln t duy ca ti: chin tranh tn ph t nc chng ti, Holocaust (v tn st hng lot [ngi Do thi]), gii phng khi ch thng tr Nazi, ng cng sn ln nm quyn vi h thng x hi ch ngha ca n, cch mng Hungary 1956 v vic nh gc n, s khi phc h thng x hi ch ngha, cc cuc ci cch trong cc nm 1960 v ch ngha x hi th trng v ch ngha x hi vi khun mt ngi v s tht bi ca chng, s tan r ca h thng x hi ch ngha v s tr li ca h thng t bn ch ngha, nn dn ch th ch cho ch c ti, v khng hong ti chnh v kinh t hin nay. Ch chng ti, nhng ngi sng ng u v by gi vo tui by tm mi, c th ni rng chng ti ch thn tri nghim, khng phi mt vi ln m tm ln, nhng thay i h thng, nhng s bin i v i, hay ch t cc bc ngot t ngt tin v li, r sang v quay li ca ch chnh tr c ngha l g. i snh ch ngha t bn vi ch ngha x hi, so snh cc c tnh ca hai loi h thng ny, nhng bin i v i: y l nhng thay i c tm quan trng lch s th gii m Marx quan tm nht v c th hiu. Chng ti, tuy vy, khng ch quan tm n chng v mt tr tu - chng ti tri nghim nhng thay i . C l lng kinh nghim sng ny, ch khng phi kh nng phn tch c bit no , khin cho ti c th thm nt c sc no vo kho tng ti liu ln v c gi tr v Marx.140 Khi cc v ch nh Nht mi ti trnh by bo co ny, h nhn mnh rng c hai s kin gn vi nhau. Mt l c mt hi tho chuyn mn v Karl Marx, v bo co ca ti s c trnh by trong khun kh hi tho . S kin khc l i hc Kanagawa k nim tm mi nm thnh lp. Khi h bit rng nm nay cc nh kinh t hc Hungary mng sinh nht ln
*

Bi thuyt trnh ti hi ngh v Marx i hc Kaganawa (Yokohama, Nht Bn). Ti cm n Dniel Zsuzsa, Madarsz Aladr, v Nagy Eszter v s gip qu bu ca h cho vic son tiu lun ny. Ti cm n Collegium Budapest v i hc Trung u h tr nghin cu ca ti.

Ti chn ra cc cng trnh sau t vn liu gn y v ng i: Elster (1991), Foley (1986), Kolakowski (1978), Mandel (2008), Roemer (1986 v 1994) v Tabbit (2006). Cc sch gio khoa v lch s l thuyt c dng cc i hc phng Ty hay ch t cc sch gio khoa c xut bn trong mi nm li y c nhc n cc cng trnh ca Marx nhng thng khng phn tch hay nh gi chng mt cch su sc. Xem, th d, Backhouse (2002) v Vaggi and Groenewegen (2006)

140

th 80 ca ti, tc l chnh xc ti cng tui vi i hc ca h, c l hp nu ti c th tham gia l k nim thnh lp vi bo co ca mnh. l mt nim vinh hnh ln v ti rt cm n cc v ch nh mi. Ti cho mng cc bn nhn dp sinh nht ny vi nhng li chc nng nhit v vi s ng cm ca mt ngi 80 tui. Bi v bn thn li mi c tnh cht c nhn, c l c th chp nhn c, nu ging bi trnh by ca ti mang tnh ch quan. Ti khng truyn t lp trng tp th loi no ca cc tr thc ng u, m ti k chuyn c nhn ca chnh mnh. Cuc sng ca mi c nhn l n nht v khc vi cuc sng ca mi ngi khc. Th nhng, ti c th ni thm rng t nhiu kha cnh cu chuyn ca ring ti c tnh in hnh. Nu khng phi l ton b ng i ca ti, nhng cc pha khc nhau ca n c th i din cho cc pha tng t ca cuc sng ca nhiu ngi khc. Khi hi k t s ca ti, cun Bng sc mnh t duy, c xut bn, nhiu ngi tm n v ni vi ti rng c k s c nhn ca ti v mt giai on hay giai on khc h nhn ra cu chuyn ca chnh h.141 Ti hy vng iu ny cng ng hm nay, khi ti k v: quan h ca ti nh th no vi nhng t tng ca Marx trong cc giai on khc nhau ca cuc i ring ca ti (v ca lch s m nh hng rt ln n i ti). Ti ch la ra vi t tng trong s nghip v cng phong ph ca Marx. Ch trnh by nhng nhn xt ring ca ti lin quan n mi t tng ny thc ra cng cn n mt hai tiu lun, th m trong khung kh hin ti ti ch c nhiu nht vi pht cho mi . V th ti khng th a ra nhng lp lun phn tch chi tit. Ti hy vng rng th loi c chn tng thut cu chuyn ch quan v mi quan h ca ti vi cng trnh ca Marx s cho php vic tho lun cc ti ln vi nhp rt cao.

4.1 Ci g thu ht ti n vi Marx

Ti l mt cu b, mt con mt sch. Thc s ti c ngin ngu khng ch nhng kit tc vn hc, m c cc tc phm trit hc v lch s na, nhng trc 1945 ti chng c mt bi vit no ca Marx c. nh, trong gia nh kh gi, chng c ai, trng, ni ngi ta dy con em ca gii trung lu, cng chng c ai gii thiu cho ti mt tc phm Marxist no. Th m, mt vi nm sau ti t nhn l mt ngi Marxist c thc.

141

Hi k t s ca ti c xut bn bng ting Hungary nm 2005. K tip l cc ln xut bn bng ting Nht v ting Anh, ri n ting Nga, Ba Lan v ting Vit. Bn ting Trung Quc ang chun b. Cun sch c Tsuneo Morita dch ra ting Nht v c Nippon-Hyoron-Sha xu bn Tokyo.

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Ci g gy ra s thay i nhanh chng ny v thu ht ti v cng mnh m n vi Marx? Trong thi dy th nhy cm nht ca mnh, u tin ti i mt vi cc lut phn bit i x vi ngi Do Thi, sau l nhng tri nghim nhc nh ca s sn ui, s n nu, trn chy, khip s. Khi cuc bao vy Budapest chm dt, chng bao lu tr nn r rng l, h a cha ti i Auschwitz v ng b git , cn anh c ti i ngha v lao ng th khng tr v. Ngn y ti hiu t vic hc lch s v t nhng tri nghim c nhn rng ch Hitler v nhng k ng la Hungary ca n ko chng ti vo chin tranh v dit chng. Nhiu ng hnh thnh, v ti rt nhanh chng tr thnh ngi ng h ng cng sn. ngh u tin hng ti ti l: ng cng sn l ng duy nht, bt chp ri ro b truy bt, kin nh u tranh sut hng thp k chng li ch Horthy ch lin minh vi Hitler v sau a s cai tr Nazi vo Hungary. H l nhng ngi chng pht xt kin nh nht. Ch ca ti l trong hng ng ca h. V th ti gia nhp, ch khng phi v cng lnh ci bin x hi x hi ch ngha ca h c v, cng lnh m khi ti t bit n v bn thn nhng ngi cng sn cng t ni ti. Sau khi ti bt u i d cc bui hp v thuyt trnh ca phong tro thanh nin do ng cng sn lnh o, ti bt u c cc cun sch mng do ng pht hnh. Ti c thin cm vi h t tng ca ng, cc t tng x hi ch ngha c v thuyt phc. Cha y mt nm sau gii phng ti n vi Marx nh vy. Ti mi tm tui, khi ln u cm cun T bn lun (bng ting c, v khi vn cha c bn dch ra ting Hungary) trong tay, v cng vi bn thn nht ca mnh chng ti nghin cu rt k lng tng dng mt v ghi chp rt chi tit. Ti dng li y mt cht lu bn c v th t thi gian. Khng phi kinh nghim tr tu cho ti, mt con mt sch tr, c hch khi ng u tin n vi Marx, m u tin l s tip cn chnh tr, s tham gia vo hot ng ca ng cng sn, v sau mi l nh hng ca vic c sch, c tc phm ca Marx. Ti khng bt u vi vic la chn Marx gia cc tro lu t tng khc nhau, gia cc trng phi kinh t hc hay trit hc khc nhau. Ti bt u vi vic la chn ng cho bn thn mnh gia cc phong tro chnh tr, cc ng v cc h t tng khc nhau, v ng cng sn t cc cng trnh ca Marx ln bn ca ti. Ti c th lit k di di v nhng c im m T bn lun c nh hng mnh nht khi ln ti, nhng by gi y ti ch la ra vi im trong s . Vic c cng tin trin ti cng m logic sc so, dng suy ngh v lp lun cht ch, vic s dng khi nim chnh xc ca tc phm. Ngay t khi cn rt tr ti c tnh m cc 213

thnh vin gia nh v cc cng s ca ti ch nho l cung ngn np. Ti kh lng chu ni s ln xn, lang thang trong cc bi vit hay bi ni nghim tc, thm ch trong c cc cuc tr chuyn khng g b. Marx ngay lp tc chinh phc ti vi cu trc lp lun sng sa, trong sng, vi cc khi nim sc bn. Ch rt lu sau ti mi bit cc tc phm chuyn ha mt s phn ca lu i tr tu s ca Marx sang ngn ng m hnh ton hc. Th d cc nh kinh t hc Hungary Brdy (1969) v nh kinh t hc Nht Bn Morishima (1973) din t l thuyt ti sn xut ca Marx bng cc m hnh input-output, nh kinh t hc M Roemer (1986) s dng c cc cng c tiu chun ca kinh t hc v m dng ch lu din t li kinh t hc chnh tr ca Marx. Vic s dng ngn ng ton hc nghim ngt ca cc nh lp m hnh c d dng bi v Marx trnh by nguyn liu t duy ban u (th d l thuyt ti sn xut) theo mt trt t c logic, c gng dng cc nh ngha chnh xc ngay t u. Nu khng phi ngay t ln c u tin, th mun hn, khi ti c kh nhiu v hc c t cng trnh ca cc tc gi Marxist, cn mt hin tng na c tc ng ln i vi ti. Ti c cm tng, rng mt nh Marxist c trong tay mt cha kha c th m mi cnh ca. Nh Marxist c mt b my phn tch v mt h thng khi nim m sc mnh gii thch ca n l vn nng. Bt lun l nh gi mt s kin lch s, mt vn kinh t hay mt bui biu din va xem xong, trong tay nh Marxist c cc cng c m vi chng c th gii quyt vn phn tch. iu ny to cm gic t cao trong ng ta. C th l X. Y. bit giai on ban u ca ch ngha t bn mt cch chi tit bi v anh ta b hng nm ra nghin cu t m, nhng anh ta khng phi l nh Marxist, cn ti l, v v th ti hiu thi k lch s ny ng hn. C th nh m hc N. N. c khiu thm m vn hc chc chn hn, v l chuyn gia v kch, nhng anh ta khng phi l nh Marxist, cn ti l, v v th ti nhn ra ng hn cc gi tr ch thc v nhng thiu st ca v kch. Cc tr thc tr thm kht loi gii thch th gii chung no . C ngi tm thy li gii thch tng qut trong nim tin vo Cha, hay c l trong mt tn gio no . Ngy nay nhiu nh kinh t hc hay nh khoa hc x hi khc c o to mt cch hin i cho rng c th tm thy li gii thch cho mi hnh ng con ngi v s kin x hi trong l thuyt quyt nh duy l. i vi ti nhu cu mnh m v cng c gii thch vn nng c ch ngha Marx tha mn, chnh xc hn l loi ch ngha Marx m cc nh Marxist sng trong mi trng tr tu ca ti khi coi l ca mnh v s dng. Ti khng ngh n nhng k khng chuyn tm thng, m ngh n nhng ng bo ca mnh, nh Lukcs Gyrgy, nh trit hc, hay Varga Jen nh kinh t hc u l nhng ngi ni ting th gii trong ngnh

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ca mnh. Ti cm thy rng, ti cng hiu bit Marx v cc mn xut sc ca ng cn k hn, th ti cng c th nm chc hn chic cha kha m mi cnh ca. Trong s cc lc li cun, ti nhc n ci th ba, tuy thc ra n tc ng song trng vi hai lc kia: s cam kt y nhit huyt ca Marx vi nhng ngi b p bc, b bn cng cng tc ng su sc n ti v mt tnh cm. S phn run ri l, nm 1944, nm cui cng ca chin tranh tch ti khi s tin nghi ca mt gia nh trung lu. Trong vi thng ti lm cng vic chn tay nng nhc trong mt nh my gch. Nhng cng nhn khc thn thin tip nhn mt thanh nin gy g, nhng chm ch. Ti n thm nh ca h, v d mun hay khng ti khng th khng so snh cn h quen thuc, rng ri, thanh lch ca chng ti vi nh cht chi ca h, thc n sung tc nh vi thc n t i ca h. Hnh thnh v t vn sng trong ti thc on kt. T bn lun l sch c cm ng v kha cnh ny na, v trong c s kt hp khng th tch ri ca s phn tch kinh t hc lnh lng, cm gic con ngi nng m v s phn n i vi bc lt.

4.2 v ci g lm ti v mng vi cc t tng ca Marx

By gi ti nhy qua thi gian. trn ti k v cc nm u sau chin tranh, ti th nh li bc chn dung tr tu ca mnh khi . Khi thi gian tri i, ti nm vng nhiu v nhiu hn nhng gio hun ca Marx v cc mn ca ng v cho n 1953, n khi Stalin cht, ri n cc nm y bo t, nh du im ngot trong i sng ca cc ng cng sn v cc nc di s cai tr ca cc ng . Chng cng to ra im ngot trong t duy ca ti. Bc ngot by gi cng chng bt u trn bnh din tr tu, th d gi nh ti c cc tc phm ph phn cc hc thuyt ca Marx. Khng phi s ph phn c xut bn trong cc sch hay cc tp ch thuyt phc ti, rng Marx nhm v nhng vn c bn. Hon ton l cc tc ng khc lm lung lay khng phi h thng t duy m ti xy dng mt cch vng chc cho n khi , m lm lung lay nim tin ca ti. Ti gp mt ng nghip gi, mt ngi cng sn t xa, ngi b t v b tra tn tuy chng phm ti g. Cho n thi im ti khng bit, rng bng tra tn cnh st mt chnh tr nhn danh cc t tng cng sn buc cc t nhn th nhn ti gi, theo lnh trc tip ca cc lnh o ti cao. Nn tng o c ca lng tin ca ti sp . Nu iu ny c th c lm nhn danh ng cng sn, th y hn phi c tai ha ln khc!

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Nhn li ti thy rng trc bc ngot ny hnh thnh mt c ch t v c bit trong u c ti. Ti tin vo cc t tng cng sn khng ch bng tr tu, m bng c tm lng v tri tim, v v th hnh thnh cc hng ro bo v ngn cn s thm nhp ca cc t tng xa l vi ch ngha Marx v cc hc thuyt x hi ch ngha. Mt tc phm tranh lun vi Marx c n vi ti cng v ch. Ti khng coi n ra g, ti gt b n, cho rng y l ting ni y thnh kin ca k th. Ti cm thy mnh c min th khi phi so cc t tng c th c ti chp nhn vi cc t tng i lp. Trng thi tm thn ny khng ch c trng cho nhng ngi cng sn vng tin, m t nhiu cng c trng cho nhng ngi cung tn khc na.142 Bin l hay thm phn ca ta d gio, vin chc ca t chc khng b phi nhng k nh bom liu cht, ngi truyn gio, ngi thuyt gio theo thuyt chnh thng, hay mt chnh tr gia vng tin c sc thu ht qun chng c th l ngi c hc thc v thng minh, c th c kh nng tr tu cao, nhng nim tin cung tn ring ca h gt b cc l l i lp khi suy ngh ca h. H khng th c thuyt phc bng bt c l l duy l, im tnh no cho n khi nhng tr o c ca nim tin cn vng chc trong tm khm h. Khi nn tng o c t ngt sp di chn ti, th cng lc cc ca cng m ra, v dng cc t tng ph phn trn vo. y ti li dng li mt cht lu bn c v bi hc ca cu chuyn ca ring ti. Li ln na c ci g i trc bc ngot tr tu hiu theo ngha hp. S kin i trc ln ny khng xy ra trn bnh din chnh tr, m trn bnh din o c. Mt khi cc ca cng m, ti ci m trc cc l l. Tng mc mt, ti i snh nhng t tng v cc phng php Marxist m ti bit trc y vi s ph phn m ti mi bit. Cc tng mi thm nhp vo ti, v t nhin ti cng tr nn ph phn trn bnh din tr tu na. Ti bt u i mt vi cc vn m trc kia ti lun xua ui tuy chng vn ln vn u bn ra suy ngh ca ti. Thi ti l mt nh bo vit v i sng kinh t. Nhiu ln ti bt gp nhng hin tng tri khoy: hng trm loi th hin ca s lng ph, v k lut, cht lng km, s thiu ht. Ton nhng vn m kinh t hc chnh tr ca Marx chng cung cp cho ti loi cng c no phn tch. y l kinh t hc loi g m li chng c ni dung ng k no v cc vn hin nhin mang tnh kinh t ny? Tai ha khng phi l n a ra cc cu tr li sai cho nhng cu hi ny, m l n chng thm nu ra chng. Ti bt u nghin cu nghim tc v hc cc l thuyt khc knh ch vi l thuyt ca Marx, v t nhin thy mt th gii tr tu mi m ra trc mt mnh. Chng cp, ng hay ti, n cc vn thc s l cc
Amos Oz, nh vn ln ca Israel, cng rt ra nhng kt lun tng t trong kit tc ca ng: How to Cure a Fanatic [Cha tr mt k cung tn th no] (2006).
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vn r rng cn b ng ca cuc sng kinh t hot ng xung quanh ti. ng l mt phn cc vn do chng tho lun ch ny sinh trong cc iu kin ca nn kinh t t bn ch ngha, nhng chng cng tho lun mt cch c h thng cc vn chung na (th d, tnh hiu qu, hay cc kha cnh ca sn xut v nhu cu, cc vn ca mi quan h cung v cu), m cc vn cng khng km quan trng trong hon cnh kinh t x hi ch ngha so vi ch ngha t bn. Nhng nghi ng ca ti cng ni ln lin quan n nhng lun l thuyt m Marx v cc mn ca ng khng b qua, ngc li c a ra sau khi nghin cu k lng. Ti ch nu mt th d, nhng khng nh ca Marx c trch dn nhiu ln v s tch t ngho kh. Ni v quy lut chung v s tch t t bn Marx khng nh: S tch t ca ci mt cc, v th, ng thi l s tch t ngho kh, lao ng thng kh, n l, ngu dt, tn bo v s thoi ha o c, cc bn kia (T bn lun, I, (1867) [1967] trang 645). Cc mn ca Marx thng ni v s ngho kh tng i v tuyt i ca giai cp lao ng v iu ny khng mu thun vi gi ca cu trn. Ngc vi khng nh ny, khng ch nhng cm nhn hi ht thu c qua cc cuc du ngon nc ngoi, m tt c cc s liu thng k ng tin cy cng chng minh rng mc sng trung bnh ca nhng ngi sng bng sc lao ng ca mnh cc nc t bn ch ngha pht trin trong mt th k tng ln rt ng k. (Trong khi tt nhin khng th chi ci l s ngho kh cng chng bin mt i). y khng phi l mt s hiu lm nh nht, khng phi l mt s nhm ln c th d sa. Lun tin on s bn cng ha ca giai cp v sn c vai tr ct yu trong vic rt ra kt lun cui cng ca dng t duy Marxian. Gi nh ng l s bn cng tng lin tc, v tr thnh hng lot, th s gin d ca hng triu ngi qut sch ch ngha t bn t lu ri. Ti tin trin lin tc trong tm hiu s ph phn cc hc thuyt Marxian, v qu trnh hc ny ko di nhiu nm. Ngy cng nhiu lun ng vai tr quan trng trong l thuyt kinh t hc Marxian tr thnh khng th chp nhn c i vi ti. Cui cng ti t n im bc b hc thuyt gi tr lao ng cng vi vic lm quen vi cc l thuyt gii thch tt v vi nhp tin trin ca vic nghin cu ngy cng gii thch tt hn s vn ng thc t ca gi c, lng, cc chi ph, v li nhun.143

Khng ch nhng ngi cha bao gi chu nh hng ca Marx c lp trng ny, m c hu ht cc i din ca ci gi l ch ngha Marx gii tch analytical Marxism cng c lp trng nh vy cho d h coi hu ht cc yu t ca l thuyt x hi v trit hc ca Marx l ca mnh.

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4. 3 Trch nhim tr tu i vi h thng x hi ch ngha

Hy quay li nhng nm ngay trc cch mng Hungary 1956. T mt ngi xy dng x hi ch ngha nhit thnh v ngy th trc kia, k t gia cc nm 1950 ti tr thnh nh ph phn gay gt v ngy cng gay gt hn i vi h thng. Cc thnh vin ca th h ti tri qua s bin i t tng khng phi vi cng nhp v vi cng hnh thc. C ngi ngay lp tc vt b quan nim c, c ngi ch tng bc mt, bo v tng mu t tng khi s hy dit. C ngi, t mnh bt u ci cch t tng ca mnh t sm, v c ngi tr hon v ch sau nhiu thp k mi bt u. Nhng rt cuc cc tn kch lch s v i, m h cng tri nghim, to ra s bin i t tng ca c nhm tr thc ny v ca mi thnh vin ca n.144 i vi nhng tr thc khi u nh cc nh Marxist v cng sn vng tin th s kin chong vng l cch mng Hungary 1956 v s n p m mu, ri n phong tro Ma xun Praha nm 1968 v s bp n, sau l phong tro on Kt Ba Lan v nhng cuc bt b v ban b tnh trng khn cp k tip. Nhng s nghi ng ngy cng mnh ngay c trong nhng ngi c th gi gn d cho ch mt mu th gii quan mt thi ca h. Cu hi giy v chng ti l mt trong nhng cu hi c bn ca th k 20: thc ra h thng m ngi ta gi l ch ngha x hi hin tn l loi h thng g? Liu n c i cng mt cch khng trnh khi vi nhiu au kh m chng ta phi chu ng, t nn i, s lc hu k thut, n thiu ht kinh nin, t bp nght t do t duy n s khng b tn bo ca cnh st v Gulag hay khng? Hay tt c nhng kinh nghim au xt ny ch l s mo m do vic thc hin ti mt cch ti li gy ra, ch thc ra chng lin quan g n Marx, n hc thuyt ca ng v n cng lnh hnh ng m ng cng b? Din t theo cch khc: Marx c chu trch nhim khng v nhng g xy ra Lin X ca Lenin, Stalin, Khrushev v Brezhnev, Trung Quc ca Mao v cc nc cng sn khc do cc hc tr ca h cai tr? Nhiu ngi din ton b cu chuyn trong tr tng tng ca mnh: gi nh nu vi cng thn th v tm hn thi xa ca ng, gi nh ng khng sng vo thi , m sng trong th k 20, th d Budapest, th Marx ng x th no? C th phng on rng ng bt u nh mt ngi cng sn, nhng tinh thn phn khng ca ng mau chng ko ng
Cuc vt ln vi cc t tng ca Marx v s vt t t qua ch ngha Marx c th thy trong cc cng trnh ca nhiu nh khoa hc x hi ng u. Ti ch nhc n hai cng trnh ng ch v c nh hng, l cun sch ca W. Brus (1972), xut bn ln u tin Ba Lan nm 1961, v nghin cu ca G. Bence v J. Kis (1978). Bn xut bn chui (samizdat) ca cun sau u tin c lu truyn bt hp php Hungary, ri c xut bn di mt bt danh trong mt tp ch ca ngi Hung di tn Paris.
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vo hng ng nhng ngi chng li ch cng sn. C l ng phi vo tri tp trung trong cc nm 1950, nhng thot ra c, ng tham gia cc cuc tranh lun tr tu hi hp trc v chun b tinh thn cho cch mng 1956. Chc ng gia cc nh cch mng khi , v nu trnh c ln sng bt b sau , th chc ng xut bn chui nhng ph phn ca mnh vi dng chm chc chua cay chng li nn kinh t kiu Soviet. y l mt dng suy ngh l th, trong tr tng tng n min th cho Marx, cho con ngi, cho tnh cch rt c trng i vi ng, v khnh trng lng dng cm v lng trung thnh vi nguyn tc ca ng. Nhng ng thi n cng lng trnh cu hi thc s xc ng c nu ra trc: quan h gia nhng t tng l thuyt ca Marx v thc t lch s ca h thng x hi ch ngha l g? Trong php xp x u tin, ti s th tr li mt cch ngn gn: h thng x hi ch ngha (khng phi loi h thng khng tng p trong tr tng tng, m l h thng tn ti m trong bn thn ti sng) thc hin k hoch ca Marx. Ti bit rng nghe cu chc nch ny nhiu ngi s sng st, c l c mt s ngi ngi y na. Nhng ti vn nhc li. Theo nim tin ca ti, khng nh l ng v c th c hu thun bng nhng s thc kinh nghim lch s, rng ci hnh thnh sau 1917 trong khu vc cng sn ca th gii, v tn ti n 1989, v c bn thc hin ci m Marx coi l h thng x hi ch ngha s hnh thnh nh ci i lp ca ch ngha t bn. Ci nhn ct li ca dng t duy Marxian l s hu t nhn c trng cho cc mi quan h s hu ca ch ngha t bn. xa b ch ngha t bn phi chuyn t liu sn xut thnh cng hu. Chng no s hu t nhn cn chim u th, th th trng iu phi s hp tc con ngi, s trao i ti sn, s phn b lc lng sn xut. Th trng l nh iu phi hot ng khng tt, th trng rm ri, khng r rng, hn lon. S hu cng s cho php phn b lc lng sn xut v rt cuc lao ng con ngi tr nn minh bch, r rng v c k hoch. Ti a ra vi trch dn hu thun cho nhng iu m ti nhc n trn ng l cc t tng ring ca Marx (ch khng ch l cc t tng Marxian c l do nhng mn ca ng pha long hay hiu nhm chng). Ti trch T bn lun: c quyn t bn tr thnh xing xch ca chnh phng thc sn xut ny sinh v thnh vng vi n v di n Gi tn s ca s hu t nhn t bn im. Nhng k chim ot b tc ot. (Capital Vol. 1 (1867) [1967], p. 763). Hay mt trch dn quan trng khc: s hn lon lin tc v nhng bin ng chu k l nhng th i cng ch t ca sn xut t bn ch ngha Marx vit trong nghin cu v Ni chin Php ((1871) [1988], p.61). V trong cng on vn va c trch dn c th th

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y cm t k hoch chung cc t m ngi ta hay nhc n: cc hip hi hp tc iu tit nn sn xut quc dn theo mt k hoch chung, t nn sn xut y di s iu khin ca mnh By gi chng ta hy so snh cc lun l thuyt nu trn vi thc t ca h thng x hi ch ngha hnh thnh Lin X v cc nc cng sn khc! Hai nt c trng quan trng nht ca h thng hin thc chnh l ci Marx k vng v ch dn: 1) tin rt gn n vic xa b hon ton s hu t nhn v t liu sn xut (tuy nhng tn tch qu qut, b sit cht ca n vn tn ti y), v thay vo s hu cng, ch yu di dng s hu nh nc, tr nn p o. 2) tin rt gn n vic xa b hon ton iu phi th trng (tuy nhng tn tch vn cn trong nn kinh t en v xm), v thay vo k hoch ha tp trung, iu phi quan liu, nn kinh t ch huy tr nn p o. Ti khng ty tin a ra hai c im trong s cc c im th yu ca h thng x hi ch ngha. y ti ni v hai c im c bn ca h thng kinh t.145 Nu ti tranh lun vi cc nh Marxist thin cn v iu ny, th mt trong nhng lp lun phn li quen thuc l: ch Stalinist hay Maoist s dng tn ca Marx ch nh biu tng nh lc hng, ch nhc n nh thnh bo tr, mc d trong thc t chng chng c g chung vi ng c. trn ti c gng i chi vi lp lun ny bng nhng li l ca chnh Marx v Engels. Cc ch c ton quyn dn chiu n Marx, v chng thc hin nhim v lch s v i do ng ra. (Ti lu ch trong ngoc n, rng phn tch c im nu trn ph hp vi ng cng sn Trung Quc ngy nay, ci ng trng nh Marx trn tng nh thnh bo tr trong cc dp nghi l chnh tr che du chnh sch thc ca n. ng cng sn Trung Quc trnh by thc h gi mo khi dn chiu n ch ngha Marx. Ci h thng m ng cng sn ng tr v c bn mang tnh t bn ch ngha, v s hu t nhn tr thnh hnh thc s hu p o, v bi v c ch iu phi chnh l c ch th trng. Nh th, chnh xc l ci i lp c thc hin trong mi-hai mi nm so vi ci Marx nu thnh cng lnh, cng nh ci thc s hnh thnh cc nc x hi ch ngha trc kia.) Nhng ngi bo v kin nh cc hc thuyt ca Marx khng thch i mt vi khng nh anh thp rng ng Bolshevik Nga v cc ng i theo cc nc khc thc hin cng lnh bin i ca Marx. Khng phi mt ln ti ch thn tri nghim iu ny. Ti vi i hc M ti gp cc sinh vin thng minh v quan tm, nhng ngi t coi mnh l
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Ti th nu cc c trng quan trng nht ca h thng kinh t x hi ch ngha bng vi dng ngn gn. Cc tng ca ti c trnh by chi tit trong cun H thng x hi ch ngha (1993a, 2002).

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cc nh kinh t hc cp tin. H tn tm c v hc cc tc phm m h cho l c th chp nhn c v mt chnh tr. H sn sng tm hiu, thm ch nghin cu k lng c cc l thuyt kinh t hc v cc phng php ca dng ch lu na. Th nhng, h khng thm nghin cu su nn kinh t ca Lin X hay ca cc nc ng u. Trong con mt ca h y l ci g khng ng quan tm, hay c l trng hn, nu ti ni: l hin tng kh , gh tm chng lin quan g n h v chng c quan h g vi cc t tng ca Marx m h knh trng v chp nhn. Theo quan im ca ti h chi u vo ct nh nhng con iu. Ti bt gp hin tng ny khng ch cc sinh vin tr. By gi, khi chun b cho bo co ny, ti c li cc cng trnh ca cc nh bc hc c u c ci m, c hc thc cao, din gii li cc l thuyt Marxist, ti cht thy rng ngay cc cng trnh xut sc nht cng hon ton b qua s i snh nhng kinh nghim lch s ca Lin X, ca Trung Quc v cc nc ng u trc ci cch vi cng lnh x hi ch ngha ca Marx. Nhng tn nh Lenin hay Stalin chng h xut hin trong cc tc phm ny. Theo quan im ca ti, s chnh trc tr tu v chnh tr i hi chng ta phi i mt mt cch tn tm vi cu hi: nhng t tng ca Marx c lin quan g n h thng x hi ch ngha c thc hin? Marx c lin quan g n Lenin v Stalin? Ti th a ra cu tr li thng thn ca mnh. C th tranh lun v cu tr li ca ti, song tnh chnh ng ca cu hi th kh c th tranh ci. Mt nn kinh t, ni ngi ta loi b sng kin t nhn v s iu phi th trng, buc phi da vo s iu chnh hnh chnh, t trn xung. Trong mt c ch nh vy, phi cng bc k lut v thc hin cc mnh lnh t trn xung bng con ng hnh chnh. H thng x hi ch ngha khng th hot ng m khng c s trn p. Nu ni lng b my trn p, chng sm th mun h thng s sp . iu ny xy ra Lin X, v khi n bt u tan r, cc nc cng sn ng u cng th. Gn vo y l lp trng ca Marx v vn nn c ti [chuyn chnh] v dn ch. C l, bn thn ng cng rng mnh, nu gi nh vi chnh mt mnh ng nhn thy ci g xy ra trong cc phng tra kho ca Cheka hay ti cc tri t Siberia. Th nhng trong khi cn din t ch trn t giy, th c Marx ln Engels u khinh mit ni v ch ngha lp hin, ch i ngh, nn dn ch t sn so rng v hnh thc, v ng h t tng ca nn c ti [chuyn chnh] v sn. Nhng ngy qua ti c li tranh lun ni ting ca Kautsky v Lenin, cun Nn chuyn chnh v sn ca Kautsky (1918), v cun Cch mng v sn v tn phn bi Kautsky p li ca Lenin (1918). Kautsky vit vi ging khch quan, im tnh, ng kin nh tin vo t tng x hi ch ngha, nhng ng thi l tn tn tm ca dn ch i ngh. ng ln ting 221

i ngi rng nhn danh quyn li ca giai cp v sn ngi ta c th bp nght ch ca a s, c th lm dng quyn lc, thiu s b b ri khng c bo v. Lenin vi ging ma mai khinh mit, ch p ln danh d ca i th, b li tng l l ca Kautsky. c vi con mt hm nay, mi lo s ca Kautsky t ra chnh ng. ng ng trong mi vn ngc vi Lenin, tr mt ch quan trng duy nht, c th l trong l gii lp trng ca Marx v Engels. Khng phi Kautsky, m Lenin mi l ngi c th a ra cc trch dn thuyt phc t t tng ca hai nh tin tri v i ny ng h cho l l ca mnh. ng nhc ti nhng li ni ting ca Marx: nhng ngi cng nhn s thay th nn c ti ca giai cp t sn bng nn c ti cch mng ca mnh (Marx (1873) [1974] p. 300). ng trch dn Engels: ng chin thng khng mun phi chin u v ch, n phi duy tr s thng tr ca mnh bng ni s hi do v kh ca n to ra trong nhng k phn ng. (Engels (1872) [1978] p. 733). V mt trch dn Engels na m Lenin di vo mi Kautsky mt cch nho bng: Nh nc khng l g khc b my n p ca mt giai cp i vi giai cp khc, v qu thc trong mt nn cng ha dn ch cng chng km hn trong nn qun ch. (Engels (1891) [1988], p. 22). Kautsky khng th a ra cc trch dn ca Marx hu thun cho l l ca ng y. ng cng trch dn cc li ca Marx v nn c ti cch mng ca giai cp v sn, v buc phi a thm bnh lun chua cht sau: ng tic, Marx b qun vic nu chnh xc ng hnh dung nn c ti ny th no. (Kautsky (1919) [1964] p. 43). C Kautsky, ln cc nh nghin cuMarx ng i, thc s rt khch quan v trong nhiu kha cnh c cm tnh vi Marx, ti cng chng tm thy trch dn no, trong Marx nh phn tch chnh tr v cng li lc, ngi tho lun ton din n vy v s cm quyn chnh tr, nh nc, v cc mi lin h gia p bc v t do gi nh kho st nghim tc mi quan h gia cc nh ch dn ch v quyn con ngi, v cc mi e da ca nn c ti. Marx b qua bn thn vn , b qua ton b lnh vc vn kh gii quyt v s bo v ch nh ca cc quyn t do v quyn con ngi. S khinh thng nho bng ny [ca Marx] n su vo Lenin v vo nhng mn trung thnh ca ng. S khng nh, rng nn dn ch l nn c ti ca giai cp t sn, th ch cho n phi a mt nn c ti khc vo bng con ng cch mng, lm m i s phn bit sc nt gia nn dn ch v nn c ti. Ch sau khi Hitler ln nm quyn, nhng ngi cng sn phng ty mi t nhin nhn ra rng nn dn ch hnh thc, t sn, ch i ngh, nh nc php quyn, s hp php khng phi l tr vin vng, m l gi tr khng th thay th c. Mt trong nhng l do l v n cung cp s bo v ch nh cho nhng ngi mun

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ni v vit, cho nhng ngi ph phn chnh ph mi thi, cho nhng ngi lm thay i x hi trit , trong c cc tr thc bc xc v l phi nh Marx l trong thi ca ng. C th, trong thi ca Marx cp i lp dn chc ti, nn c ti ca giai cp t sn hay ca giai cp v sn mi ch c v l cuc u khu. Ngy nay trong con mt ca nhng ngi sng v sng st di cc ch chuyn quyn ca Stalin, Mao, Rkosi v ca nhng k khc, th cc t ny c ngha khc. Ngy nay c th thy rng s khinh b dn ch trong cc bi vit ca Marx dng nh chun b mt bng m trn ta nh chuyn ch LeninistStalinistMaoist c dng ln, lm t lit s khng c chng p bc trong nhng tn ca t tng Marxian. Hin nghin ti dng t trch nhim khng theo ngha hnh s. Bn thn vic cng b mt t tng sai lm khng phi l mt hnh vi ti phm. Vn trch nhim cng chng ni ln ngay c theo ngha o c hc. Marx khng vi phm cc mnh lnh o c bng vic ln ting i xa b s hu t nhn v th trng, v khng nhn ra tm quan trng ca dn ch i ngh v nh nc php quyn trong bo v cc quyn con ngi. Ti ch ni v trch nhim tr tu. Nu ti cng b mt t tng thc y hnh ng x hi, th khng ch nhng ngi trc tip thc hin hnh ng , m c ti cng chu trch nhim v ci xy ra, v ti cng chu trch nhim v nhng h qu ca nhng ci xy ra ny. Li ti cng c nh hng, th trch nhim ca ti cng ln. Th m, cha bao gi, chng c ai bng t tng ca mnh, bng cng lnh c cng b ca mnh, li c nh hng n nhng con ngi ln hn Karl Marx nh hng.

4.4 Ci tip tc sng t cc hc thuyt ca Marx

Sau khi h thng x hi ch ngha sp , quan im kh ph bin trong gii tr thc khp th gii rng cc t tng ca Marx sp mt ln v mi mi. Thy y, lch s ph nhn iu . Khng phi mt ln ti bt gp nhng bi vit huynh hoang hay bi ni ngo mn: Marx l pass qu kh, li thi, v khng cn quan tm thm. Trong nhng ngy ny, khi khng hong din ra, hnh thnh ng l tm trng ngc li. Marx li tr thnh mt. Trong cc gii chnh tr gia v nh bo, vic dn chiu n nhng tin on mang tnh tin tri ca Marx tr nn sang trng, khi ngi ta v ra nhng cnh tng

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kinh hong v s sp n ni ca ch ngha t bn. t nhin T bn lun tr thng sch bn chy nht.146 C hai tro lu mt ny u khng c cn c. Vi cng trnh ca ng Marx khng ch ghi tn mnh vnh vin vo lch s chnh tr v t tng, m nhiu t tng ca ng ngy nay cng vn ng vng, v gip cho s hiu bit th gii ng i. Ti s quay li ngay vn ny. Nhng trc ti mun ni vi li v s phc hng gn y nht ca Marx. ng l Marx thng a ra cc li tin tri c lp i lp li, theo trong ch ngha t bn c cc lc t hy dit hot ng, cc lc s dn h thng n khng hong ch t v sp . Ngay c mt vi trong s cc nh nghin cu-Marx, nhng ngi khnh trng cc t tng ca Marx nht, cng tha nhn rng dng t duy gii thch s sp cui cng l kh theo di, b n, kh hiu, hay n gin l sai lm.147 Ti khng thch tin tri, v ti hc c ngn y t kinh nghim ring ca mnh rng nhng thay i c tm quan trng lch s th gii nhiu khi li din ra mt cch t ngt khng ng c. Ti khng bit c cu x hi s nh th no trong tng lai. Ti ch c th ni ngn ny: trong tm nhn ca ti khng xut hin s kt liu ca ch ngha t bn, v li tin tri ca Marx v s thay th ch ngha t bn bng ch ngha x hi cn t c kh nng tr thnh hin thc hn. Theo ti nhng nn tng ca ch ngha t bn t ra vng chc hn th nhiu. Tt nhin vn s khng th c gii p bi cuc u khu, tranh lun gia cc li tin tri tranh ci nhau, m bi lch s tng lai. Ngy nay chng ta ch c th khng nh ngn ny vi s chc chn hon ton rng hin thi ch ngha t bn ang co git nhng vn sng. Trong bo ch hng ngy chng ta c th c thy nhng tuyn b ca cc chnh tr gia v cc nh bo rng s soviet ha ca th gii phng ty bt u. Bi v ci g khc c th gii thch cho s thc rng chnh ph ca mt s nc khng cho khng cc khon cu tr, m thay vo i quyn s hu [cc doanh nghip c cu tr]. (Hy ti ni thm: mun hn chnh ph c th t nhn ha [bn] s hu nh nc ny, tr trng hp c loi ng cng sn nm c quyn Hoa K v Anh m ng kin quyt p dng m hnh Soviet bng mi gi). Nhng k huyn thuyn v soviet ha v v vic a ch ngha x hi vo, l nhng k t bc l v mnh rng h khng nhng khng hiu Marx, m cng
146

V s quan tm c hun nng t ngt n Marx, xem, th d bi bo ca t Times London (Collins 2008).

147

Cc tng ca Marx v vn ny thng c din gii rng xu hng sut li nhun gim dn cui cng s dn phng thc sn xut t bn ch ngha n mt kh nng. Da vo nhng cn nhc l thuyt cng nh cc s thc lch s, a s cc nh ph phn nghi ng bn thn xu hng ny. V phn mnh, ti ng vi cc nh ph phn.

224

chng bit g v lch s ca Lin X v cc nt c trng thc s ca h thng x hi ch ngha. Tuy nhin, ng nhn mnh rng c th thy nhng nhn xt thin ti trong tp I v tp III ca T bn lun v s bnh trng tn dng qu ng lc ny lc khc v v tc ng gy khng hong ca n. C l ng l ngi u tin, hay ch t cng l mt trong nhng ngi u tin, ch n hin tng rng bnh trng tn dng dn n sn xut tha (theo thut ng Marxian) nh th no, tc l dn n sn xut vt cu thc s, hay l dn n tha nng lc cn thit t mc sn xut qu cao. V qu trnh bnh trng gia tng ny tip tc cho n khi chui cho vay bt u t ngt t tung.148 Trong mthai thp k qua c cc kinh t gia hn lm v cc chuyn gia ti chnh thc tin nhn ra nhng mi nguy him tim n trong vic cho vay v trch nhim, tnh ton sai lm nhng ri ro, v trong yu km ca s iu tit h thng tn dng, thm ch a ra nhng kin ngh ngn nga tai ha, nhng ngi ta khng lng nghe h. Nhng li cnh bo tnh to ny khng n t cc gii Marxist, cng chng n t nhng k th cp tin ca ch ngha t bn, m n t nhng tn chm lo bo v ch ngha t bn, t cc nh ph phn tp qun cho vay hin hnh, t cc nh ci cch h thng. Cn by gi quay tr li khung kh k chuyn ch quan, ti mun ni vi li v cc t tng ng lm bi hc nht cho ti t nhng t tng ngy nay vn cn ng ca Marx. Nh bc hc thin ti ny thc s lm trn ngp chng ta vi nhng dng thc tng v cc cng c phn tch. Trong tiu lun ngn ny ti tranh lun vi vi t tng rt quan trng ca ng, v ti ra hiu rng v phn mnh ti khng chp nhn chng. Th nhng nu ti vn c th tip tc ni nhn danh c nhn mnh c nhiu ng gp quan trng ca Marx i vi t duy khoa hc, m ti vn tip tc chp nhn, v ti c gng s dng chng. Ti ch gii hn vi th d sau y. Hu ht chng ta thng dn chiu n Schumpeter, khi ni n s sng to hy dit. Chng ta ngh n cc nh kinh doanh, cc nghip ch, nhng ngi t chc vic a ra cc sn phm mi, cc cng ngh mi, phng thc qun l mi, chim lnh cc th trng mi. V bn cnh chng ta ngh n s pht trin t bn ch ngha do Schumpeter m t, n ph hy th gii c, to ra th gii ca ring n, phng thc sn xut ca ring n th vo , p t chng ln x hi. Tuy nhin, chng ta phi ni ngay, Marx v Engels m t qu trnh ny, lc lng to ra v lc lng hy dit ca ch ngha t bn, trc rt lu ri, trong

148

Marx khng tng kt cc tng ca mnh v cc cuc khng hong c chu k. C l nhng ch quan trng nht dn chiu n y l T bn lun tp III, chng 30. Mandel (2008) cho mt tng kt ngn gn v cc tng ca Marx lin quan n cc cuc khng hong.

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nhng dng u tin y quyn r ca Tuyn ngn Cng sn. Theo quan nim ca kinh t hc chnh tr Marxian cc nh t bn c vai tr ni bt trong t chc qu trnh i mi k thut. Trc v sau Marx s ch ca a s cc nh kinh t tp trung vo cc trng thi cn bng, m c th l vo mt trng hp c bit ca cn bng th trng, khi cu v cung cn bng vi nhau. Mun hn kinh t hc gi trng thi cn bng c bit ny l cn bng Walrasian. Bn cnh Malthus, Marx l ngi m ng ca hng nghin cu phn tch cc trng thi lch khi cn bng th trng, c th l khng ch nghin cu nhng thng ging ngu nhin xung quanh cn bng th trng (Walrasian), m c nhng s lch ko di na. Marx c bit quan tm n th trng sc lao ng v kha cnh ny, trong cung cao hn cu khng ch tm thi m ko di. Marx khng th a ra li gii thch nhn khu hc, m a ra li gii thch kinh t hc khi ng kho st hin tng m ng gi l nn nhn mn [qu nhiu ngi] tng i. Ngy nay cng tnh trng ny, tnh trng d cung sc lao ng ko di, c kinh t hc sc lao ng gi l cn bng tht nghip. (Xem th d, LayardNickell-Jackman 2005, p. 8 v 11). t ngi nh rng Marx l ng t m ng. V phn mnh, ti nhn mnh, trc ht ti hc t Marx rng ng ch nhng no n nhng s lch ko di khi cn bng th trng.149 Ti khng bit chnh xc lch s v khi nim ch ngha t bn hnh thnh ra sao v c a vo t duy khoa hc nh th no. Ti tin, ti khng nhm, nu ti khng nh: t lu hu ht cc chnh tr gia, cc nh bnh lun v cc nh khoa hc x hi gn s a vo khi nim ch ngha t bn vi Marx v tro lu t tng Marxist, v i snh h thng t bn ch ngha thc s hnh thnh v mt lch s vi mt th gii mi, vi h thng x hi ch ngha m trc Marx mi ch tin tri v ao c. Marx khng hnh dung ci sau (h thng x hi ch ngha) nh mt s khng tng, m nh mt thc t lch s chc chn s xut hin. S to khi nim ny gn mt thit vi hc thuyt lin quan n cc phng thc sn xut k tc nhau, khc nhau v nhng c trng quan trng nht. Thnh phn quan trng ny ca ta lu i tr tu ca Marx ngy nay vn c nh hng mnh n t duy ca ti. Trong mt bi vit ca mnh ti gi cch xem xt ny l khung mu h thngsystem paradigm, tc l cch xem xt khng tch mt lt (ct) duy nht, phn c gii hn duy nht ca x hi, y l lnh vc chnh tr, lnh vc vn ha v t tng hay nn kinh t, m tp trung vo ci ton th do cc phn to nn. N tp trung ch n cc

149

Hin tng trung tm i vi nghin cu ca ti (Kornai 1980) l s thiu ht kinh nin v hng ha v sc lao ng xut hin trong nn kinh t x hi ch ngha, chnh l nh i xng ca hin tng d tha ko di do Marx v Keynes m t, tc l hin tng i xng vi n v c du ngc li.

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phn khc nhau ph thuc ln nhau th no, nhng mi quan h no hnh thnh gia chng. N khng m t h thng trong bc nh tnh chp chp nhong, m n c hiu ng hc ca h thng, nh h thng din ra trong lch s. Marx l ngi m ng v i v bc thy v song ca system paradigm. Cng mt lc, trong mt c nhn, ng va l nh kinh t, nh x hi hc, nh khoa hc chnh tr v nh s hc. Thi , chng ai dng t lin ngnh interdisciplinary, nhng ng nu mt tm gng v lm th no vt ln trn gii hn chuyn ngnh hn hp v nghin cu vi t cch mt nh khoa hc x hi ton din. Ngi ta thng hi, ti c l nh Marxist hay khng? Cu tr li ca ti dt khot l khng.150 Nhng ngi khc ni: ti thuc trng phi o, hay ti l ngi theo trng phi Keynes, tn c in hay tn t do, v v.v. Ti lc u t chi trong mi trng hp. Ti khng l mt tn v iu kin ca mt trng phi hay ch ngha no c. Nu nhng ngi khc th lm vic , ti cng chng mnh b nht trong mt ci hp no. Ti a th nhn rng cc thnh t ca t duy ca ti mn cc t chm bim ca Engels ha ln thnh cho bin chng ca k n my. Nu ti c thin ch hn vi bn thn mnh, ti vui lng ni rng ti c gng tch hp nhiu loi tro lu t tng. Khi phi nu tn nhng ngi c nh hng nhiu nht n ti, ti thng nhc n tn Schumpeter, Keynes, Hayek, nhng cng trong danh sch ny tn ca Karl Marx lun ng v tr u tin.

Ngy nay ng u, ngay c nhng ngi nm 1989 vn bnh tnh dy ch ngha duy vt bin chng hay kinh t hc chnh tr [Marxist] cng tr li l khng. Tuyn b trn ca ti c nhng tin c nhn khc. Nh ti ni u: ti bt u nh mt ngi Marxist. Th nhng, thng 11-1956, sau khi cc xe tng Soviet trn vo Budapest, ti tuyn b vi b th ng b a phng lp trng chnh tr ca mnh: hy ghi nhn ti khng cn l ngi Marxist na. Tuyn b ny gy nhiu kh khn cho i sng ca ti sau , trong mt th gii hn lm ni m theo ngha en ca t bt buc phi l ngi Marxist.

150

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Cc s liu cng b trc ca cc tiu lun trong cun sch ny

1. Innovci s dinamizmus. Klcsnhats a rendszerek s a technikai halads kztt Tiu lun s 1, vi tiu ting Hung nh trn, xut hin trn tp ch Kzgazdasgi Szemle, (2010. 57. vf. 1. sz. Trang 136.) xut hin bng cc th ting khc: Vit Nam (2009), Anh (2010), Czech (2010), Trung Quc (2010), Ba Lan (2010) v Rumani (2010). 2. Hinygazdasg tbbletgazdasg. A piac elmletrl Tiu lun s 2, dng hin ti xut hin u tin trong cun sch ny. Mt phin bn ngn hn xut hin trn tp ch Kzgazdasgi Szemlben (57. vf. 11. v 12. sz., trang 925 957 v trang 10211044.). 3. Libert, Egalit, Fraternit. Gondolatok a szocialista rendszer sszeomlst kvet vltozsokrl Tiu lun th ba, c tiu ting Hung nh trn xut hin trn tp ch Mozg Vilg, (2010. 37. vf. 1. sz., trang 518). Cng xut hin bng cc th ting khc: Vit Nam (2009), Anh (2010), Nht (2010), Ba Lan (2010), Nga (2010) v Rumani (2010). Sp xut bn bng ting Kroatia, Trung Quc v Serbia. 4. Marx egy kelet-eurpai rtelmisgi szemvel Tiu lun th t vi tiu ting Hung nh trn xut hin trn tp ch Mozg Vilg, (2008. 35. vf. 12. sz., trang 314.) Cng xut hin bng ting Anh (2009), c (2009), Vit Nam (2009), Php (2010) v Nht Bn (2010).

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