World Energy Outlook

International Energy Outlook 2011
Center for Strategic and International Studies Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator September 19, 2011 | Washington, DC
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case

World energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India
Renewables are the worlds fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8% per year; renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in 2035 Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use in 2035
Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 2035, as sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel switching where possible and modest use of liquid biofuels
Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case (continued)

Increasing supplies of unconventional natural gas support growth in projected worldwide gas use. Global natural gas consumption grows by 1.6% per year, and projected natural gas use in 2035 is 8 percent higher than in last years outlook Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise 43 percent between 2008 and 2035, reaching 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 500 2008 Projections 482 400 Non-OECD 300 260 OECD 288
200
244
100
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use
world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 400 Non-OECD Asia 300 Other Non-OECD Projections OECD
200
100
0 1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand
average annual change (2008-2035) percent per year 7 6 5 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
4
3 2 1 0 -1 -2
-3
-4
U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia
Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy consumption

world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 250 2008 Liquids (including biofuels) 200 34% 150 28% Natural gas 14% Coal Projections 29% 27% 23% Share of world total
100
23%
Renewables (excluding biofuels)

50 10% Nuclear 5% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 7%
Liquid fuels markets
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the other cases represent a wide range of prices
world oil price paths real 2009 dollars per barrel History 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1980 Low Oil Price case Reference case High Oil Price case 2009 Projections
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels
world liquids production million barrels per day 120 100 5% 80 60 41% OPEC conventional 40% History 2008 Projections
Unconventional
12%
40
55% 20 0 1990 Non-OPEC conventional 48%
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
10
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East

OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 18
2008
16 14 12 10
2035
8
6 4 2 0
Saudi Arabia Iraq Iran Other Middle East OPEC Africa South America
11
Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan
Non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 14
2008
12 10 8
2035
6
4 2 0
Russia United States Brazil Kazakhstan OECD Europe Mexico Canada
12
Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels
Unconventional production million barrels per day 6
2008
5
2035
0
Oil sands/bitumen Biofuels Extra-heavy oil Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Oil Shale
13
High and Low Oil Price cases reflect shifts in both demand and supply schedules relative to the Reference case
worldwide liquids consumption and production in 2035 million barrels per day
80
Reference case
High Price case
Low Price case
60
40 20 0
OECD Non-OECD Asia Rest of World OPEC conventional Non-OPEC Unconventional conventional
Demand
Source: International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
Supply
14
Natural gas markets
15
Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption in the IEO2011 Reference case
world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History 120 OECD 100 83 80 66 60 49 40 37 37 39 55 56 57 Non-OECD 100 Projections
68 62
20
0
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011 Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
16
The Middle East and non-OECD Asia account for the largest increases in natural gas production
world natural gas production increment, 2008-2035 trillion cubic feet
Middle East Non-OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Africa 7 6 4 4 3 -2 10 12
15
United States
Central and South America Australia/New Zealand Canada Other OECD
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
17
Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011
18
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the 48 shale gas basins that were recently assessed
Technically Recoverable
(trillion cubic feet) North America Africa Asia Canada, Mexico Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Western Sahara, South Africa China, India, Pakistan 1,069 1,042 1,404
Continent
Australia
Europe France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, U.K., Poland, Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Ukraine, Turkey Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay
396
624
South America
1,225
19
Unconventional gas is an increasingly important component of supply, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada
natural gas production trillion cubic feet 30
20 Unconventional (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) 10
Conventional (all other gas)

0 2008 2035 China 2008 2035 Canada 2008 2035
United States
20
Electricity markets
21
Renewables and natural gas are fastest growing, but coal still fuels the largest share of the worlds electricity in 2035
world electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours History
40
Projections
30
Coal
20
Natural gas Nuclear Hydropower Other renewables Liquids
10
1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
22
China accounts for nearly three-quarters of the world increase in coal-fired generation
coal-fired generation trillion kilowatthours History Projections
United States
China
Non-OECD Asia (excluding China)
Rest of world
0
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
23
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
24
Non-OECD Asia accounts for almost 75% of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
25 OECD 20 15 10 5 0
History
Projections
Other Non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
1990
2000
2008
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
25
Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2008
Projections
50
40
30
Coal
20
Liquids
10
Natural gas
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
26
For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
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World Energy Outlook

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World Energy Outlook

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International Energy Outlook 2011

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case (continued)

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

0 1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035

Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy consumption

Renewables (excluding biofuels)

Liquid fuels markets

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East

High Price case

Low Price case

Natural gas markets

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

Middle East Non-OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia Africa 7 6 4 4 3 -2 10 12

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

20 Unconventional (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) 10

Conventional (all other gas)

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

Natural gas Nuclear Hydropower Other renewables Liquids

Non-OECD Asia (excluding China)

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

For more information

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011

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