Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 49

IDRC CRDI

~~

L'~

Om;)~"'~lJ~"'"",J a1Jn~mtJEB'
n5JlJJ.muolJ-JJ8tlth

6~JJi1lJifi.u

tlJetl"

U"'"~lJrJ."Cl~~nCl1lJl~lJC§~c\b!il·uJ,e~V1~lJ '"e'U~lJtWlJUl'" ~". u~m6"'hlJ, e.u", mmmu, ~,,~, ~J,'ilJ.

~Cl" e~~~lJ "~'i"J.J 5't"welJ


e"1~"1lJ

we,ccn"

UO~t:lW"l
i:;;)#J~lJ

e"l~"1lJ e"1~"1lJ

t{lJdsj

~~;S1J C);JjJJtdj

"J.J.V1~6Ul."~ 't"~m,~~Cl
2002

~~iAD:··AGii.iS¥·-·
Typeofcontent:

~~:;~tof. , ~--:.~-~.~ ..::~, ~.,. ...-=:: ~


p
Res. Lit DM""uaI, ~l,",CJPoIiCYpap~" i;z('Counli)',epon,t<ehmcalR.epartDothcr 0 D (K) _ con~renCe/(5)l~"1.on'lJ"hJJ~lJ~ {Z}- Brbliography/uiJlJ">fUJ .«(::) _ Summal)'faCl"~i~tJ (el _ Sta"dardslu'''m~rr'ilJ (D) _ D(.wingsJ~u (a) _ LlWature re'!'ewf5ulJ.. fI.u5<.w (y) _ Maps and

·:::D:::·-----:;-·o-·:~,·,{"U··~M ...·h.1.~~·?··D·---·A-·~·

Rogulotion

r:

(N) _ St"~s~C$I£~l,J=d\f\ atlaseSflU:lllt!uomeu

-rr r

o o
0

(\I) _ Non-coriven~onaV'en~""u,'"B'l!(J (U) _ Thesi. or d1.sena~ort/S01""''lil''''

r
r:'

(Pj _ Palelltsl",()iWb

e---;R) _ ReporlfuCl""":l~"

Author address code(s) (53): -rroooNot .pedf,c D 0 0100- NAFRInot'pecilic Ol06-LARReC D010l~AfD 0 0102 RMDc:::;J0I03~CAFRI

:::I0104-ARC

Ol05-I-IRC0 0

D0107-FRCD0108-NAFReC OOl11-PCO 00200-MAF 0114- URDP

::J[ll09-SAFR~C

OllO-LRC 'OOlH-AlIIC DOl13-AFPRC

:::J 0201- RDMNGTZ

D0202-NAFES

'0 l023-PRCVO

~OOO-NUoLnotspedfjc Publication code(s) (54):

02QI0-NUoL-Facultyofforestry

:::JOOOO_Notspedfic D :=J01O<l-ARC

0100-NAFRlnot<pedtk 0 OJ.06-LARReC 0 Dill-ALRC

DOlOI-AFD D0107-FRC 00112-PCO 0

00102-RMDD0103-CAFRI 0 Ol08-NAFReC D0200-MAF 0114-URDP

CJ OlOS-flRC 0

::::::J0109-SAFReC ::10201-

9110-LRC

RDMA/<:;1'Z DOl13-AfPRC_

D0202-NAFES

10n-PRCvO

£r2000-Nuol'notspecifjt

D20l0-NUoL_F3c~ltyoffore.try

e~"~1J t(1Jt15, ~:;'~1)1J e~"~1J ~~;)1J !;]O,.lJ"l}

".lJ"m~3UJ"eJ~ 't:;,~m,I':~O 2002

C:\Users\lDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101102

iJCl"'~eJ'~lJhl,n~lJ r:nm~iIlu!1e, mlJJJeu8lJ-JJeuu~ ..\~JJ"lJ 11m d~e~ 1Il"n~m.l~"Cl.,"nCl lJn~1J(ii~c~'Iil~uJ,e~m~lJ ~ !1e,u~lJl,"lJ1Ile, ~Qti u~lJc6~t\~1J, c.iJe, mlJcmu,~!1;)' :JJ,'ilJ .:

a~~~lJ e~lJS.lJB'c~welJ

e~"~lJ !!le,~n:J iJ:J"'ti,"~


a~~~lJ l;llJis, ~~~~lJ e"l~~lJ i~5lJ ()t)jJJ~iJ

.lJa1Z1l"lBma1EJ"l

'cQC[m'~'lG

2002

C:\Users\IORC\Group

I\Report\Draft _7.doc

12/01/02

tu~mn1:
_!8VlJm5ClElO"lJJd:hJJJ"l 1.2 ifi,u"l ~"'Il ttnCllliJREl,n'll.li1m<l"l 1.3 ,CltJlJii, f1"l1.l®m;,1"l 1.4 El~t')'lJJ~1.I1il5"l~h 1.5iiJJ~Cl~ 1.6 ;!i:I1Jt')'ll.lUlRlrl;!i:l'l

2.1 ~lJl.IItme, 2.2 ~.lJl.IaO~''''"lrlrl"ll.lditlrll)~w'ln;!i:lIJUlJ"lJ.J 2.2.1 2.2.2 ~.lJl.I"'"lrlW"ltl~'ltJtll"l,e"ln"lCl ttQIJ W"ltl'thVCl'lOtnJJJ ~.IJ))nJontlVIJ!IlOClElO"l.u~Ul.I.u"l!?:e,u"ll.l

2.3 rl'l))5tE1"1Il~.lJl.I 2.4n'll.lWCltnlJ))"l tt;;)1J n'l))ClIlR)"lCl

3.1 ~IlW'ltl<;JOJJRe~t«Cl~l.IEl5"15h 3,1.1 VIJ!IlOClIilO"lmUl.IJ.J"lRe,U'll.l 3.2 i;lJ))tn"l~~l"ll.lt~~l\llJiiClMl:5,fI.u 3.2_1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 3.2.5 (E1,VllrlBtlRe,VIJ!:"Irlel.l 6"1!!,1Re,VIJ!:"IrlBl.I e"l~URe,tJlJ~'lnel.l ;;)"IVrO (Q"lV:5U) Q"lV~"IV

3.3 (El,:S'l,tiIl.It')'ll.lRejU'lll 3.4 ~.u1l1J ~","IJmovie,

C:\Users\IDRC\Group 4.1 4.2 4.3

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

U1:!twC'Jtl.lflmC'J)J al.l{!e~n'll.luJl.Iat1~l.I~1~ffi.il.l"l'lnn'll.latJw;Utl'l[Jm'l~e'lrl'10 ~I::~U

~""

w~l1ffi 5:

Bt"~")J"lvu~vl1~)Jvjlmtl~)J~~~6m)J
~"g~tI"Ci1:k)

UOll<

uuuBffil1~)J

5.1 5.1.1 5.1.2 5.1.3 5.1.4 5.1.5 5.2

l.Il:: [Ju'lvJ.Jeuol.l-.lJeuth 1 n'll.l<i()S~tJI::CliJol.ll:: It.Ju"ll!JJ.JeuGl.I-.lJeUU'ltl.l~l.IV'll.l ~()n'llJttE1e~t1JUI::Wl() ztJt1Q'lO lrlj:5'l~tJl::~'llJJ'1lJ~lI(.iJe, n"llJ"ioS,tJI::CliJ()lJl::lvu'll!J.ueUGl.I-.lJeutl'l ~U1~'I!J'lnll.1n'll.l.ueuGl.I-J.JeUtl'l E(€l'lI::~uaUUn'll.l<i()S,tJI::BtJ()1.I1::1I!Ju'lI!JJJeu8l.1-.ueuu'l

w~l1ffi6:
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 E1o'l.uu:r;')rlci'l~2e~(W() !;)l1JTl'll.l&'l(~j~l::uJ,e'lU1'1l.1 n"ll.luSlwnill::uJ~e"lU1'l1.l2e'!:"Iou"ll.l n'll.lW;)i'iil.l"'l::U1ci'l~lOl::uJ'Je"lt1l'll.l ((QI::n~JJ1:!i;C)616l.1 ~lJUl1:!l.I'l

7.1 II..~U 7.2 ~l\:lI::(niJ"l.I1:!

C:\Users\JDRC\Group

l\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101/02

C'l'lC'ltoQ'I~ 1: C'l'lCltoQ'I~: 2 Cl'lCltoQ'I~ 3: C'l'lCltoQ'I~: 4 Cl'lClIJQ'I~ 5: C'l'lClIJQ.,,6:

lilj:iii'ljtJto~'1"e1J~3,ze,il'l1J tJJUIJIJU*1J3'1~~Bjii'Oe,il'llJ i3JJIJIJUQ'Iv!5u-Q'IV~'1E1QtotJ!;:\'l'U'llJlrulJlJla,-,a'll\'11J iO.uUlJU"'1lJlJ~t~tifhJUi~~eju'IlJ il;}'lJJ"C'l"ci'l'Re''''1lJlJ~ti:tmlJ "'1lJ~'l(tlJn UQtotJJuIJIJud1etiu'l'r:.DReju'IlJlwlJlJlej tj'llJ UQt:lU'IlJtEi'l

Cl'lClIJ:N'lj7: C'l'lCltoQ'l,S:

ti1effi''ciRe'"R;}j;}J'~lJnalJ

UQIJ~h"'1lJJ.JeuBlJ-.ua!Ju'l

tJt:lCiiii~Qto'J"'l1JtlJn'l1J'~'1dbzlJ!JJ,a'ltrl'l1J~ejtJt:l~'1!:lJUi,~a,u'llJ

C:\Users\IORC\Group

I\Report\Draft _7.doc

12/01102

Iltnlm 1: tll'.1'tlm 2: cemo-m

llenJttn'lllll~li:ifi3ll~B'U'I1JtI:J'Iti'l1J tl:l'.1'tlikn'l1l1J~1~tt81J~aju'ImCJ'lti'l1J

tI:~tj U'ltiltLilJme, tl:Qtj u'l1J1wlJmej

U 1981

1998

t:
z: a:

tl:tn.J;)'lmni'lClou'llJ1wllUle, llenJ;)'10mi'lClOU'lmCJ'Iti'llJ tI:~b IlQtj n'llJc~'lclb~tjtlJje'lt!1'11J~ajlli:'\Qtj~JJ2ajlhlJ1w1Jma, tl:l!b uae n'llJC~'ldb~tjuJ,e'lt!1'1lJ!!e,u:i:'\;;.)tj~lJ2a,U'IlJta'lti'llJ

«euc-o «euc-c

ccmo-ro 4:

C;\Users\JORC\Group

J\Reporl\Draft

_1.doc

12/01102

n'llJ~lJrl;)'lBt"lt)J~~;]It.ulJt~~trol1'llJ\lrla~ill.JwlJ£J'll1elJUl~.lJIJ~'lO 'ti~30rlB~tJlJ'l1Jn,

~ajtJlJ~'l~lJ""'lOl

!kWOlW)J

l1'llJ~()~~lliJ~lJtI1£J'l£JnJOlnUOJJl1~'llJlJlJ'I:£JI.J'l£J ~a~;:S()l\IJI.J'llJ iI.t1.t1 (;)'10)tlJUcJ(;)tc

~Qt'JlJ'l:O£J~lJtru'ltc~QlJiJil1i1'l It'ulJ~r.'ii1mQBl1t~'liilO)~alJnlJtill.J£a~O)Jn~'llJ JJatll;)lJ-JJaI.JU'l 6~JJi1lJik 1Jcfiaiktrl'll1'llJO'tc~m;no tlJn'lmi'l'il~:illJuJja'lm'l)J£aj:<lajv'llJil: V'llJ'l:wlltrlaj ItQt< V'1lJtO'1tl'llJ.

n'111~lJ[l5'lt)J~,;]It.ulJttliatijlJn'l)Jti,;-.u~'ljrlOl'lJJB'lOiO'1JJ'lO£aja'l"l'1)JtlJJJIJm'lBtrllJt'J'l'tQltui'~'10"'l0l lm.urlOl'lJJ~;iJ~~lJ'l)J. ItcJ(;)t<rllJ)J1J n'l)J~lJ[l5'11)J~j;] 1t'u)J~r.'id5mu1J~.uttliatu1Jn'llJlti;muJlJrl'l~mmlJ£B~B'l"l'llJ "I'1niJlJ~lJrl5'lciltal1'1)Jt1k)!lllJlJ'1:i1'lrh:l (lORe,

'l:O£J'tCi5Un'llJ~lJm:;u:illJ~lJVi1J

International Development

Research Center). UC)~''''lOltti,ci'l''lt<~U;lJi)JJ!.}lJ .ilUl\;))J~C)'l.lJ Itcidta ~~l1lJ Wo)l'1~i'lwt<c~'1i1115t"l cilteilu6uut.J, 1t<\l1J

tll~~'l.lJ'lOiOt<ItO,'ti'Elo)'1mu)J~,£ajiOeW'lun'llJikd)Cl~lJllJ:ila,u'1lJ, ~cJ'lnflo)'1JJcil'l~ui:iu\l.6~~,£'l0l

1t:oJIJtJlJl1eI.JEl~iiiClCVllJ6uo£e,ruOln~'lwe,~'l

~)

ltii~2tlJ~lJ6~tl, r.i'llJl1'llJ~lJiiOl'l3hcmlJ'tCici'l U)Jtn'l~lJ6ikd)O~lJ6C:'ulJtielJ lJlJ'l:ElU'l£JJJaUC1lJ-JJBUU'lCW'l1J

ci'llJt<'l:ElU'l£J~j';'lOlIt.ulJ~lJui:iu:illJt1J;IlJtrI'l,r.'i'llJl'1'llJUl1Ul'1:Sl1$3'l:ilIJW'lU"Olo.:5aJJ lotlcfllJtroc~o1Uitlt<:;'l ~lJUlJO'lCii'ltlJt7iOltletfJ10 e.u.u sna lli:imti'1tr1J.LJnlJ tlJl1'lU\lElB,ti3ll t"lID'lEl~lltUl1'llJCJIJQ'md~11~-u'lH1 UOJec5Cltmtiht~'11JrlOJ'l.utSlJ

loI;.lVllJ"I'll1l1'llJCJeQCl"tlua'lt:!iHn'lJJIJ~'lCltUlJWl1.lJ'ltulJn'llJl'Je .LJ'ItUlJl1'1lJrJlJ "I~lJOllJ£e,tJlJ

SmcutllJ~tilc1:il1jJl'15trle£J'lIll'lCl !IlI'ltlE1Ol'l.uci'l 50tmtllJ~'lii.lJVllJ"I'lnl1'llJrJeSmuii.unlJ d S-OtcutltWBnlJl1'lElculJi5"lJlii'l.ucitielJci'l(£o~''''lOltUllC20iknci1etitrl1j11'llJrJeSm;'no ~'lnBUW'l£J tlIJ11E1unultuultl'JlJ5U1n'l1l1'JIJQC)ltcmci'l,nlJ£B~tJe~'l~lJ

:::Ie, U'llJ CUlJctr1m~otmtil:'lt~'l cW'le;:)'l cilte.u'l "cili'l

Ji]unUUlJtrl'12'lClItE1lJ!l1'l~Ci'llJ:ilIJUj'B'ltn'1lJ W'l£JC(JBlltlJ t,u.c:ci;:)'lci!'lt~'ln:il'l.u'lC),e'loOJQBO cil:'lC~'lcUlJ~n~flCl31iin'llJ!l1'l.u'lm'lnlJCi'J(JalJ,ej CUlJ,~bJIt.ulJn'llJc~'lU'lm'lcnud1ejU'l£ajB, ctQnUjll ~£'lEl 9j"6nVllJOjlJB'liiUt"I'l.I.J1OI1J'J1l'llJ il t.t;aal1l5aClQIJ'J8mi!'lt~'lnW'lnlJtr1~l'1'lllCJeS" tr1'll1fuJ['JeQo~~.unlJ B'ltn'llJtmUl'ljootlElLl. 1l1L1'1.ue"ltVjtumll\lll1e,ti3lJ liio'l5huQLlttnlJ;:)'l

C§'lnW'lnlJ~tJ:SU~~jC1'l.u:ile"t1'llJti"cJ'lj:JI.1'lJJrl;)'lJJtlJ1J'lt<i3JJ tilta!l1'lt~1JJJ'lt:ilIJUj'

QlJtrlci'lj ~.uiill ~ ~JJr;lJ It:oJeQt:m;:)'ljv'llJ ~ ihlJ d-'lun'lu~lJ 2BjtllJ~'l~lJtnj~ejV'llJ u;ci

.tilJCfiCl~'lll n'llJil"UtrlBClnlJJJ'l' tlJl1'lu~Cl8,ulJl5uC) tltlneunuulJtr1'l

€lOlJ;:)'l W'l£JID' iknl1'llJJ.muolJ-.ueuU'l

n'llJ£'lClItE11lti3lJ IrtOtrl~n"llJ['Jui3Cl~p;i£LI ctci~uik~" cil:'l'~'l nllia£J:J ci'1h6

c~C)lUi'nClIl1L1'lJJC~'lh8"ml:5mjBEl tiUlJel£JIJ'ltlJJauC)lJ-.uauU'l. ~

IOIt<UjU nOWl'lEl U'1lJtna~ID'ltl~ll '!SCltmn'llJ~Cl8,ue8UCllJel£JU'l£J~'l"i'lo&lJ(tialOllJn'1;). Bn~lJt'lJl;jll;.1lJ'ltlJJaUOlJ-.ueUU'l'~Cltmll1o)'l.utJi1lJEl'!l1~,Ci'llJ~lJuJ,e'lUl'llJ~()~, t"IUlJUI,);j ctlOle

It'ulJdlm'lnn'1lJiS"uUlflClnlJ.LJ'l tlJn'l1l1~~Cl\,~elJj~a'ltl1'llJt"I'l.LJ!l1~.uIJ:;'l()2ajtJlJ~'lil.lJtn':ila~U'l1l Bni)lJtn'1tj,,'ulJtialJtllJ~'l~)Jca~CUlJ~c~'l~tl~mulllll!i:JiltiweEl'll1elJtrI~.ut:!l'l() lJlJtlJUl~JJe~'lCl ~'lO

c5Cltmll1L1'lJJ~B.uSJJ

~C)S,

~tI.tiClt"leW'lU!2ejn'1lJrJIJQ()ant"l~. "jLlnUl1'llJunun:sn:il'l ilvwlJtI'lnelJtrl'l.ut< t!sC)tUice~,~~nmOl'lJJtJi1lJhW'ltlaj~lJ

Itcian.u'll5aCltJe,UlJ;jczotuicil:'lC~'l'~'1't"lIl~'

ItlOle 'tmlOoVitc,;t(l1r;lJtlJn'llJ\lile,ffialJ~'lj:<leCttVW'lU

tllllUUctl'.n.J l'1'l1lrJeSClltuu~.l.JfilJ .u'ltU1Jn'lllt:!eSoctUU'UlJ~llii'l.

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

1. 1 V~m5ClE1;)~JJ~thJJJ~ ( History)

tJ~ttnCl~'lOJ nutJ~'tnCl~tn,

,UlJtJ~(tnClvt,t:1~.lJ(iSlJtn'l,aen~tn~,~tlJe'litCl'l(;:)lJ6en~J'~c'i

!1J~.u'l, ~lJ, lnOlJCllJ'lJJ 2000).

";p)~n~tJ("'!!J . .lJd~eifi

'~j.u~'ltl"CllJ5Cl tJ~~'lnelJ

iiijuiJCltJ~LJ'llJ 236. 800 nJJ2 aae

tJ~JJ'llJ 5. 2 Q'llJrllJ (~~llB,

'~jOOOt'l'ln'llJ",~(SlJtaU1Cl!2ejtJ~~'lnelJ:

swVlci'lj

2. 6% 6u. '~Cl

tjdlCl!2ejtJ~'moiiOllJtVltrUJ.),Je,tilui!biiuw~£.I'lnelJVl'lJJ~~'lClt::e,tJ~(tnCl nBlJt.l'l~.u,ajnOJJ'§'l 60% I2:B'U~hil'ltl5U,h'h'lnn'l1l~,aan

'Cl£.l~~tW'l~~UJ.bJiiuw~tI'l (i501!J(VlCleruil,ri'l0l, QCltj~U'lll!<e, e.

tJ. usnc ~,~6ttii'J~JJ~1i;CltlJn'llJ~lJ5'le,i~uOlCl~elJt::B,!'iuw~I!J'ln~llifi$J~filJ'~lJ Cl'llJito~lJ'l'JrnlJ Q'lEJlr'l,Z'lI!JU:;:" lJ~~oriJ;)i'iu 12:6, t.l'l~.u. ~UW~I!J'll'lalJBlJ ~"UlJUlJVl'ltirCilJ;JJ'liiilJ!fl~lJ'l UQ~ lJ~, lfialJo'l tJ~~UlJjj '!lJ'l~$JdjlJ,

ilOl'lJJ!l)'lnl!)'ll!J Vl'lj ~jU;)Cli5aJJ ilntn'1

(@"ell1'l3Vtuflh2.

QCl'q~U'llJ~'~c1trn'JS

1l~llJu,)(Jn'l1J'JClBl1'llJtj'l,U'l(ZOh5.

~jilO"l(UlJOlJn'·l1Jifi.uil;)'lJJVl~'I!J'lniSuSlltilS.uIfl;)lJ ~jUl'1,~k)tj~U'llJ~Cl 100, 000 lfleu€lOJ, tm""~ 2020 tlJ12:6U

UQ~ c1e'~OrnCl!fl~lJ'lUuutJ~iiJJtJ~~'llJnU;)Jl1j'llJWCltI1~lJ'1~lJlJ~[lotlJ(I2:CldJlJl3" gjdj'ltw'ltlifi"'~'JClEin'1lJtj'1,t.l'l,5CJh;lCJE.I~ClVl'1e'l!turl,ifiuritJ~~'1;;:lJttinc1 (QCltlJU 2000. !OOllJUlJCl'lflaUrl;)6W,(WeuJ.i1J"'~Ioi1u6~mn'le'1!tuttiiil~,QCJ!lJ'ltltlJU 1998).

(I2:Clffi;)tJ~'tnCl (iI~tJJlJCJ5j, 1998; ~'iI~Cl'l, ~Clt"J~U'llJ

e.u.u e-re

~(J5U~'i1j$J'l'tr1Cl!<ejn'llJiJJJ(ilE.I

UQ~ IQClSjt::e';:I~W'1Un'1lJ[)I1~JJee, ii,Vl16ClllJU 1989, ,@"e

U'1~iJ. ~'QCJtj~u"llJ~Citmfl~'iiilJ'i1'UlJVl'l~,ri'lO

6I1a,tJtl~JJU'l~.uutri'~'10
aQ~

Vl'1flOl'l.uWtlE.l'ltl'lJJtlJl1'llJaflhl:IflOl'1JJVl~jE.l"lnlotln'1lJ~(SJJ(aE.lad iI~UU .. tlJ£j,eCJibtJ~WlO. JJeUnlJ-lJBUU'l

U!iQUO lJ~ltlU'lE.l6'1j'Jmil'1t1 hsauudjema8t1

lCltl~~'W'1~u:.ulJ,D'ltw'1E.1tlJn'l1J!1J0r.ielJn'1lJt"J'l,t.l'l(30 (tsJJalJ~o~,tJtlBuoJ.J'1~jtl:ciU

tl:il~ lJ~'tlU'ltJ

1990 )1iiCltI1'l,iJ,ri'1;),ullJ1:Cl.un'llJ~Cl a~tl U'l Hi tlJuwifi

iSlJifiBlJU'1 I.i:itziiuri~JJ~lJ~J.JilB'. WOm£'15UaCl~BU. n'1 tl:iltl V'ltiJ. lJtl ltlu'ltl~jri'1;)

,ffi"BlJ~t~,~'l tlJn'llJWCltntllJ'lVl'l,Ci'llJl1tl~111 ~c1tJtlBuCl 1:tJweJJnUl1'1lJ~lJ1tl'l' S2~'WlJju'l'.i1ee,,,ci:Ntlul2:o, .. lvu'1lJ 1:fI~m'1l1

nJJu'1 1:.u, l1~~;)'l1~iil

W~UlJn I1d.lI1'l-V'l1:.i1t1:RO',

tlJeeutI2:Cl&otJtl'UlCl. Uiltl

tlJS2tllJ~ ifie~uolJl1'llJee~l1'1lJ~o~,u~BuCllJ Cl'lBlJ'o!Sul1'llJtJtln'1Cl~Cl~'UtlBuCltlJ~JJU c1,tJ~5uotlJeeu'!<(;)&mjtl'!flCl uTi'e,6ta

l1'llJJJauolJ-JJeuu'l

rmeento
tlJn'llJ~Cl

1990 ,ulJfh.JJJ'l,

rl;)'1JJ5)Uuil'1eejOlJn)'llJ~,ri'l;) tl:il~

U.uJJV,.n-uilBtJ

iJelJu'lj1'3lJl1tlmU

~aCl"Vj

ea'lJ~ltlu'ltlV,D~O Ucin'llJ~Cl~'

'*lJ: tlJl1'llJ~Cl~jtJ~CiUCllJ~'tlU'lllJJBUOlJ-lJeUU'l

Hi,mJCltl:.ulJ.u 8 U'1Clfl'lO

tJtlCiUCl6;)~jtlJu6il!iru'1nRejtJ!i(mCl

I'I,U,U ;)'1;) U'ulJ'ZCl1:c1!lJJ'uci

6 U'lClTi'l;),ZOlJU'1ClTi'lO:ia'l~lJR ~;)'ltn'l,I5'1lJ

U'lClfl'lOlln 7 UJ.ilJU'lClfl'lOll1'llJ~j'ii:l".u~'l;)U'1lJ ~'l(l'l

",,"tl S2BClI1'llJ:sutJtlnlJVl'ljc1'llJl1'1lJCltlW'1Cl

",,"tl n'lmse'!SUalJCl'tlQClci'l''JifitJ~~'1~lJCl'!i~Cl1:c1

U'lClfl'1Olln 8 u.ulJl2:eCll1'1lJl1oon'lBClCl'lJJ!lJ'1t1 3 Vl'1 5 u.ij'1'iiilJci'1tJtl~'1;;:lJVl'lI1.uI1'llJ~Clc1,tJtlC1UCl

phiij}l1'llJJJaU~ClI1'llJ~lJt~tUiuritJ~l:'l~lJW'1fJtlJ 1:60 '~'l il;:l~cmnUiml;)tJ''l1J.uBU8lJ-.uauu"l~lJ,jje, "cin,nm'a'lJJ ij'lm'1l1tJtl!;'1illJVl'lntJ~CiuCl~'6

~lJtl:eOl,.ueutut!,VlJ~Cl~JJti!tl'lj"l'lOlBlJtUi,£'1 mlOlEJj'llJtrriJ;)Rejnc'ie'''IeCl'l1elJ;!ol1'llJilJJt~i1lJ

.,UllJl:1JJtl~ORe'~G

W ~il.uau6tUirJ;;W,~iiiJJn,n-Bifi,ffi"a!fl1n'11JCl'1:QCl~1:tJ.

n'llJw;)wlJ:Ntlvi;)'l'i:I~w'lu!<Bjl1'1lJil(lej

tI:"'~lJ'lt~ifi8lJ

a.ulJ.ul1'1lJu,,"l1vJlJi3lJtJtllVltlm~,TilJ tl:O;)tl B'llJ'lflCl, n'llJl2:'1mRlJ!I1'ljUCl

ICON"fiu. t1r.i'1lJJJ'lalJeajl1'1lJCleUI';l~lJlJa,i!u!lJtll!J'll1alJtlJtJtl~UlJ

C:\Users\IDRC\Group l<jifiriJOJRe~

l\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101102 aC'JC1'l2ejn'llJznlJl.)JlJn'llJlJ~ti::ti0lJ ~rn'iullJtJI:<IUlC'JO;)'lOJ lmml:<wl'll:<Il,UlJ '~jti:flJ tJt<llCl"

nun'llJilf)e~ifiBlJtCi'i:flJulJm'lt~a~BlJifi"lt::t1a~ttfiI2.

tCiltr.u~lJ'ttJruBJJnUC~C'Jl\t::jjC'Jn'llJC1"'I!)'lC'J2B:JtJl:I~C'JIiiflJ~~lJ:J tlJCp.Cl&'tfifi<:lCnSj. fl'llJifiOC51UU.lJ'lnmJ

llJtJl:I,ulJifiBlJUl'ljn'llJnl:<1i;n~'toiln~'lEltri1,uifilJtlJt.uejtr.ul\'lW"a

tlJ ~tJV Q'lO:l ( Klrk,199S ). ttu'lI:<~I:<;jlJ, mo~£hJfll:lmURBjn'l1J.wauBlJ-JJeuu'l u'l1Jcfl'lt1'llJ, U'llJ ltulJUle, die,

'!lli.lJf1lJifij}lfiatrUl~n'llJeJdkr";lik)11Jn'lm~'ltt1.~:iill:<lIJ~a'lm'llJ2e, tnlJctnU "2<:1) 0J:J~1J ~,'t5tJn~1lJ.J'lin:iil'l

i!1all;)'l0Jn''llJ~:Jn'lOJ,ulloJn''llJalltw.i I1QI:I ;:)otrl~ul:<trI~ltC1nci'l,nlJ.

"QI:< ~1:<t]'llJtmn:iil'l

n.u()o'l.uI!)'lnW'lI'JUl'l,Ci'llJi:1l!;:'lO~lldh5iln'l1JC'J~Qj~O

n'llJt'['l,U'l(5C'J ~e'l()l:IclJ IIQI:< ~tlJlQn

Ii

cuiuci:fm:I'lCmC'JBlJc1ElJut,ti lio'l't1lJ'tw~J.J~

Ul'l,QC1tjI:<U'llJ2e,W'lw)l:Ittrlr.)

tllRjC!Wtrll:<nue'l ~,SlJ clsC'Ji IIUtJ!;:li!;:'ltJ I

t,fl'l1J~()S~2<l'''ttb~llllrli~I'lnellU'l't.ui2a,tJ'''ltrlo;jlJ:J. u-meu. ~ii1n'llltj'l~U'l

ICi.uI!)'lI'J.LJ'lC1C1lin'llJcilJev'ln:iill:<nr.)~Un'l1J~C1Qj2e'~tJruli t~lJ: uJlJ~IJIIIJIJ<j'lnfl'llJtj'lju'luutJ,~a1JQetJJJ'lci:flJi)jti

lmm'llJlJ~li::l!l'lEl~tJI1uu2a'11'llJ!Jnwr;)tJli tlJu:~r.)alJlJ1)Q~trI'llJ

il.utJ><81'llJ IlQ:t' vnihtlu'l"J::iJJs,lJt:ia,t1Jt'['llJ m~Q'lUIII!b~OJlilJ'l:JwlJci'l':J tlJfilJ;jCJl\t::tJ'llJ2a,

W t~(')tQijjill.iJflOJ'UJ;,jJ,f1n'lu~1JullU,
lCJtJ't15l1n'llJ

ifin~.
tJt::Ctrlr.) e. u V Q'lOJ ~'tQttr'i()O'lJ.JiI~f)lJt,oJn''llJ~,ri'lOJ, UO;)I< 'tOlJ~t~I!l'ltJJJ'lCJCll:ln'llJllJn'llJtJr;)Cin'llJtj~,u'lC~Cl't:5 tl.ulJ lJ;l~ ctci()"'llJt~'lh OlJnj'llJJJau

t'[eol\alJum>jlJ"I'lnW'ltJUl:lctrlClllJRjI2CJ IlUlIC~alJQel'J.

tlJtllJ.lJ'lClC1t::n'llJifiUl'ljiSCJtjl<u'llJn~~jtJt::C1UC'JtlJ~'C2m1i;)tJl<ctrlCl unUnZnil'lllo:Jl:I

8lJ-JJallU'l1C'JtJtUitJl<!;:'li:lJ~ni1lJl1iOolJSOlJJtlJn'lIJ~JJfle,

~lJrueltl'lTlelJtrI~J.J1< IlQI:< 5WiC'JS, e~m~lJ


~lJ

!l'lG iI'l,11E1OJ'lJJ:5tJ1JCJ!;:ell.llJtJloj,tilJ"Jn'l'llJ~~ri'l0J1IJ.ilJtiji'6u6tJeC1UCJ, ~1<C1U,I,.C'JOiiilJ:iil'lJJ'lC'J,t\'lI'J~e~tmtiiilJ't(lriJ01i~,?C'JUl<il~!ijTl~e~oJnj'llJ~'ln'lOJ( tJelJt,elJI22e'luCJ:>letrle'tjlJtlJtJeCtrlC'J-.:J'l0J1IMU C'lalJl!)'ltJlruCJ Uia,tlJ6i-n n'llJ~CJ?l,tJl<C1Ur.)Oi)u~lJC1alJ 'tVu:;'io,

~ K~rk,~:9SI ...)'

ItQI< tlJetlJ2e'lJtilvu'lUCl,n'lOJn(J,utrllJ~ett"l'l ElOJ"lm~'lt"l2ej~t1lJ~'tt1~C1?l'ltJtiC1UC'Ji;rn'ilJ. UciZlI<IIJ'lUn'llJ!II;OJ'ltJU'luJ.llJti,na.,tOJmtJlJ~ll. ~'lc5r.)lmu'l'l

n'llJlJ~u8lJ-lJauu'l

n'llJ.LJeUC1lJ-JJeUU'l ()0l'lJJ~u8m::ell

uJ.ilJlJeltJu'ltJWn!!e'~r.)tjl:<lJ'llJ ~JJ~lJ
U,,"e

:lItJtJQ'l."ctJan'lllDnun:5n~'l tJl<!;:'l~lJ

uo;)'"

ne"l'lU ~u

lC'J(Jl1~OJlJSOJJQetJ1;)'ljQG, lJel(Ju'lu~,ri'lO c@'Bn'lIJ~Q1IIJn-~tJe1wn ItQt:: ~U<je,v'l,iinnr.)mml'J

t~'l.LJ'll11ii;)lJ:3oJJtlJn'llJ~JJfla,

nJt::tJ'lnelJtrI~JJe!;:'lC'J. ll~bmeUJ,a'ltJ1'llJ, n'lCltUinn'llJfifla~ lJ~n

It.ulJ:S''l,rlO'llJ

ml1lJhttffun!l'loneji;nslJ

tlln'llJI'.JtiQr.)ill:< tlJtl.u~t!tecDCJla c~eti:i:l~E1lJ ttJe n'llJe'l

QOllJ'ttldbn'llJc.:ltoijmtJan'llJC1I<2)'lr.). 1t;;)1<~'l.LJ'lCl~t::m'''lJ2euC2C'J 2e'lCR'lt~'l.

W ilejnlJ,

n'lllc.:lI<QCl U~I< ~JJli::ru'ltJtlJUie'~lJ ~CJmtlJn'llJ "~JJtii, rlBUIllB,

t5,ifi'tC)~I<",I5v'l':o.ll:<BJCJtlJnmQJ~El (fiClVV'ltJ&BlJ,

;)'lCioun'llJ~UUl<nlJ
1BBf:

Uo:Je iSutrleCl" 2e".ceifitrl~n'llJCJI<~CJ

lJ~CJCl'lV11b).

C:\Users\lDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft _7.doc

12101102'

Ut::!J150l1'llJ~tlUler;)~lJl1"lJC)~S~!t5oee~~t::='l~lJ;.).);),ioo:JlJUloo"<.Ia.tllJ~l1WlJ~t<UliimltniilJ ntltll~ J.Jt<5:'lO,lJem'll113JJt:Jt::~b~m1~'ll1l1'l1Jl1t::~l11]".so:J. tltlf('l~lJQ"OUlJO'l(a., v~e'l~t:lUl~J.Jt<~.,o,lm.J~t< IlU'ltlalltltl.,tiJ aQU O"~Ot"ltlwlJdle~u.,s:e~a, (tuet"letlii:ltrV1lJB'CJ'lJ.Ji1Ol'lJ.JtiEl~n'llJ V1'l~O"lJJlt::tlJ'0'l V1'llJ,.tllJ5ot;l3tltlJ)1'llJ~m~·1~MI<~1'llJii1wne.,b, "tllQ'Q'lv~c'5tBJ.J aQI<tJ'lOo:Jwt<Itl'loci'lj:J.j'ltll'ln;)'l i ~t<W'ltlU'lUl'lnnn'llJtiJlJaUjil~t<dsotmd'mJt<non'llJee~Ul~J.JI<~'lOnn'llJUJJJ"tlj(~lJOJOlnlJ ttllJBJJ a.tllJ tnO~WlJ"Ij"iiOlJ.J, am,a0'5" ilo:J'lJJ:SSlJaQt:: ilOl'lme:JlJtiJlJatl,V'l,nl<li'ilJ!nlJ aQI< g'lva~,~,'ttJn.J'l filJ ilaLim:sottiitnoBfion'llJtIl'l,c'5'llJe'lV1'llJn'lJJnJJ d1e'~'ln.J'l: JJ"Ij", U"l~.iJaQI<~t<w'ltlao:Joo'5eJJ OlJ, djlJB,tJl<neuiil::O~E1lJ"Qt:: e'lo~~Ci tlJl1'llJO~1i5,~o aQI< n'lJJtJl<l5o:nl<in~. lJt<lvu'l£J~,ri'l;)ttJlJlJI< l£Ju'lItlWn tmSr,IoC1n'llJt]'l,!. l'!!5CJ't~ aQI< ~O~lJS"I~ui1jti!tiitJt<~'1';;:lJ,"!otlt<i3'l!imittum50ttiitJt<f,;'l ~lJn(l::J"lJJttJlJmnl<ru'lutlJl1'llJi1E1s,UmlJ(1t"etll~1!"ll.Jt:JI<~bttuet50ttiit~'lt~'lnt]'llJ><~lJttlsZI><fi'lOJ "ZlI<enUlJm'ltjimten'llJnl<~'lEJE10l'lJ.J5UfJOf,;eUSjtmtiis,tlJtlJn"llJOntln!Sn~'l aQ><~J.Jt~~UWI<V'l nelJUl'lJJI<!;"lOI.1"1.L1Q><uJvfio!lll'ltJ!J"llJt.iJe,.
-, )

tit"sut«.lJlJnjonu clJl1t<muUl'lj6'llJlJI<1£JtJ"lEJJJstJ8lJ-.usuu'l t:it6U><8uotlJaci o;It<~lJlOEJiI>< tW'l><tt.tllJiiilJdJsj,aeo, i.:nCi~oc1,UI<C1uoloEJuJutIlJunul':I><W'lVao~,. (ilisin~mi1'ttlJOil::J'l.LI~O nae (lo"lm~"lt'ieB,tJl<~'1~lJ riJonun'llJu><8uOlJl< H.Ju'lv ueu GlJ-J.Jsuti"l es,~ot]><U'llJ l':IUU 0;1"10. (tJB~nil"lti1'ilI<W'lvn'llJtlJlJttUjtll'l,c'5'llJ~><uJ,e'ltll'llJtlJdjerielJ aQI<W'1vl!i~ii1.un'llJueuolJ, J.JBVU'l. dJ6Zz~i'1oa;;";)thlj, E~li'lCJn'lljDnil6ju~EJflii- ~ljn'ljjiinii'l[h;ir;t::ffiui2ejjY,jj ,i.ieluOlJ-lJei.ib·"1 ttQ'" Biiln'llJu ..8uoii1(m.LI'l"'S.LI.

8il~tj"JJ~1l"5"5hResearch (

question)
aool<

n'llJ~'(l~"t]'llJ~lJIil5"1Shnttt"m30ttii~l<oonllJn'lmnun'l~.lJlJ

~'1JJ'1m5"1~Ci~'l~J.JlJ1fi.lJ~wJ~

III & ri'lli:l"J.I"IoC"lm.l~"'mJejl;J'lJJ~C)I.I><S,t18, ~5"';)0l~,j ii"l~~,.elJWOlnt5'17i~",oe,.un'llJtJuuJlJi'l'~'" tmJ W.J'lm;)iJm'HulJ~Ci nijlJlII'1t'l1'llJ~~Ii1'lt];JJBhnliIilOJ'lJJi:I;rilJ tto;Jt< e 'i'lttllJ@UnElJfl:J'l'iI<c1e,'ti.'i U",8UOt"l'l.LItit"sE10'lJJfl:lt<oontlJl1'llJUltltl101.lfl1}ulJo'lulJm'liilw<:lwlJttljmo[io.rl'It]"I.LIBt~Ui,t6JCln 3 ~~, ~lJfi:
1. I E10'lJJa("mc-i'l~Q"'tIl.J'l~n'1lJ\lE1S' ii1olJ.ualJnt<6iuc'J1i10'l,utll~1Jr;~tIl'l,c'5'llJj;I~uJ~e'lm'llJ«lJ::J to?

2.

I lJI<1~U'1VR~'~lJ.LIe~8~ ,uBuU'1~lJ6i1;)'llJm.fllJil,tIl'1,Ci'llJfI:I",uJ,e'lD1'llJiltt1J;)to? lovlO'" tW"lvaJJlJOlQVIi1;)!Jl£"I0tlJolJ1t1l;n'llJt:Ju",o. 3./lJ",lER.I'lv J.JsuolJ-,ueuu'l Atmdlm~eoaEi,6UlJo'l~J.JillJ mQu'l1J6u"llJilalJ<lto?

C:\Users\IDRC\Group El~\l'lJJ El6jti81Jt1J

I\Report\Draft elJUiut~

_7.doc u;.LilJ~it6n'l1J~m1J'l~1Jii;)'lriJ;)nuut.<m;)ClIil;)'lJJ(U1J.u'l12a,n'l1Jtt 12e,~ejU'llJ,

12/01102

n~d:mn~'l

u;c1o:JI:<'to:J£JI:<U1'~B,U'llJ. Bjl.1'lJJ!lII:<W'l~CJ;)~j 81J~B1J~'l'i;l~i::1J. Blle1Jtit,tIi'~B,i1'l1J

~I:<W'lU U'lIJJ~61J~'lj~,,1:;JJ, 11Jl1'l1Ji]Ele,ffio1J 1lJ

wt.<W'lUCJ1Ji]llUl"lQ'ltJ, U;Clllc1'ljtilJ

.ull'l1J~UUl6Cln1JJJ'l

"QI:< ll'llJUl~ll'llJot.<Sm~crclllci'l,nlJ

8lJ,vlJi3'l(mCJd5CJ1riiUl,~:ajU'llJjJEl;)'l.u~o"tl~nlJ

n'l1J'~'l(~'tJI:<uJ,e'lm'l1J,ti.n-I.1'lJJUl"JJJt.<g'lO.

lJI:< h)u'leJ U'llJ IB'l~'llJ,

JJeu3lJ-.ueuu'l

crJ.lmUlJti.u'l£ejulJm'l

"QI:<

~~CJutlj

t5'ltJt.<tW'll:<~<:It.<rmmil'lti crQt.<

U'llJ lWlJUle,.

dlCJfl;)'l.u~CJt,v'Q1;lmci'l'~JJfllJtiJJ'lrielJ W'ltmci'l~JJillJtJ.u'lCl'l.u~!b.

"I1J.rnioUi1lJll'lllflBUlila,

CSl'lC~jS\UWt.<tJ'l:nBlJlJl~JJt.<~'lCJ ".1,,,V'V'lCl~~

~fiCltlci';;)lJmri'ljlj'llJ6u'llJ Vl1CJ;)tl'lj Q'lvIr561JO

(!(otriilll1"1lJ

tlJn'lm~'ldb~uwt.<I!J'lnelJlJl"lJJt.<g'lCl.

,,<:It.<Q'lVIr5tJ"J5B'~6' n<:lt.<nC '~'lRe,U'llJ"lt.<

ut.<g'l~llm'tJeji:i'llJ"J.llJtr5JJ'l"l'lnn'lll,nu~teju'l~ejB'I.1'lJJQ"'\1n'lll.u'lf<'ll'.I. ,i:hJgOntlll~lltJ'l n,n1J!2'lJJ 6111JJ'l"l'll1!2'ljllel1"lt.<!i:1lJgm"lQ'lI!J.

n'lllJJ6lI13lJ-.ueuu'l dretiUl"Jll'llJfJI:<SOnl:<~n"JiiBI!J

e'lo.iJfuJ'~CltUiEl;)'lJJuillJfl~

Ul'l,r5'llJtJt.<tJJ,:a'lIfl'llJRe,ut.<~'l~ll

~.ufilJtijJ UBlJ,)'l l~CJ~j tlt.<w'lutiGlJiielJ

IQ"S,

(&.u~O'tl'llJ

ejl.1'lJJIil;)'lJJ(VlJ~'12:ajtJe~U'llJnQI:<rmntJ'l).

riBlln'lllJJetJ8lJ-.u6UU'l,~JJ6111~,ri'l;)tJ'lJJ'lCJ(~'ltlijtJt.<uJ'B'lm'llJCl'lJJUl"J.ul<~'lo'tC)W'll!Jnci'l:' ri'l;)ttllll12CJti.n-f1L1'lJJW'lllm'lIOJUl'l~r5'llJ~;)I:<lJ'l'JWlJ £'l~~j1;1J


~ ~

'2CJ~,ri'l;)

eJj~U1lJttnStJn;)lJ,m-B

(lJB!Iltl!l'.umm.

<'>-~

~JJ'lIC).u11'l1l3UW'l[1n(~'lJJ'lg'~1J'tl'llJ UJlJcrUj. ~.ui1lJifie~'l.u'lrielJ

l1'lEJIVlliJ'llJ

t!sotUicrtrb~uWl<V'l1l611~,ri'l;)!iev'Jttn ";Nt.< lJit~~uWt.<tJ'lnBlJ!Ili.ul:< '501Ui(£'lC~'l eml:< ~JJti:

"Il<IUlJ~tijJlil;)'lJJI(iUJU

tllll'lll~tJ"Ia,ifi0lJ

1;'10 ,'i:!lJtJ'll!JtUlm50tUi~lJi1lJti'~'l.u'lI.1'lJJ~b uli.Ut.<:;'lClCJ'l.unmn1J.

2'lClffio1J($SUl"Jn'l1Jc.w::3ol1t.<i;n"J tlrin'lmEiutmv2t.<mv'ltJfiLl

ruJim':lt.<W'lu'lllJB'lI1'lClCmJ'lt.<SJ)

rrureenoen
Ivm.:l'lctllo mJ'lVOJLI'lJJol'l

d:11JmJ'ln!2BjU1JCl'lWmUlJOOlJ lfI'ln[lllBniiBtJ, i/jn.:so1rii

f:lllcrCl,,)'l ~.uii1J~jri'l;)"It.<Ir;'i5ua1JUI:<ltllJm'lnu'lm'ltJ ufilJ~JJfill~~ri'l;)~"II:<genm'le'ltll'liJl1'llJnlllr5iieti (n'ljJ\l'l~r.h5,tlfl<llilled5Cl't5). f1Jt.<W'lUU'l "Qll 011

n,nU~'llJij'lD'l:o

((;Nt.< e'ln'lCJ"Ui~"ilj,

C£'lt~'l£U~UliQ'lVUli.ull~'lmiit~l!f1;)'lJJ~Qerl ~'l1J.lJeUC1lJ-JJBIJU~

W'ltJ~jjtijJn'llJUI:<n'lmVlJ'~Cltt.u t~eJJ1~JJri61JtrU'liilJu:<'5L1.

~ihiJ

!2e1J~'l'

W'ltJ1lJi1'l1JiI.u11'llJ~CJ8jut.<C)uCJu1Jo'lfim:Jl<IJJuc1'lj'J

.. ,.ullm'l~jri'l;)i:(i11'ltJ ace s:entl~~Q'ltJ l~lJ:rielJn'l1J.ueuEilJ-.ueu dJBj 't~m'ln u:!W~ "IilJ;»)J

tUm:!'l(UlCl tUi~.ue:;lJtlD'lfrBifilJ1in'l1JfJI:<BCliievf<'loiiflJihjJn'llJl:1'l'lij~I:<uJje'ltll'llJ 5u't(iiietJS, 15CltUi,i:l'l'~~ JJ"lJOS101n1JtJJlJB'l~1J

0i1~nihtl'tU~Ue1J§'1l

U'l( 1995 ) .ITut.<"l'l~lJtlJi1'llJ1wlJtI1e'''lilJ;)lJ niu:w'llljmBll;)J'~1J 10 mauii;)

8 OJBUIf1;)vm1'll!Jlu~U'llJll'lvi'l"liu~ ( 1998

crQt.< 11J'ltiUbti.IT11'l1JJJSUGll-JJBUr.h

) jJut.<:;'l~lJtlJii'llJlwlJtrlBj

't()fjl1ii'l!'J'tu~ii'llJlJ'lvi'l"litJ'll~lJC1J;)TilJ.

ln~n'l1Jc(je2'ltJ~JJ1JiitBl.I

,,;)~

aiO"t)~1J6J"",n~1Jiil1iO~

(Study Site)

t-

~UWl1tJ'1neJJm~.utiE:'lt'1

IJ1.-."'..;;..~_.'1.\.O -I
.

mnmt::uJlJtifl~~:

'Q:n~UIi~2:
10 5lJiJlQ,m~tJTU: .

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft _7.doc ttQl$ u'l1JtB'lt\'l1J 61t1JnudJ"e, mmmu,

12/01102 ttll20,oJ~<i"lJ

n'l1J~Tlil:l'l~~l'h:otQeme'lU'l1J1W1JUla, ti1\)rie1J~m'J'l~lJiio'l (~uw'lu

01). ~e~ii'llJcS,r\'l5D:.LilJ,oci'llJn'llJ.lJeUOlJ-.ustJt.l'l

.u'ltt~O tlJU 1997.

~CJwttoCJ!le~m..iU'llJ~,r\'lOtt.LilJ.iJ(lO'l.uttc·l11d'l,nlJtn'lj

O'llJ~CJ!IIl$lJl$mlj, iSC"l£lejtJt:twiJ tti:Jt: 5Uttuu!!e, ilolJU~lJtB'lt\'llJ :.ulJfi.lJ,ii'l

~'llJC)'lQ'~CJ"IW'lt:;i'lU'l1JlwlJUle,tJt:';:'lnalI2a,rj'llJD:.ulJ~lJta'lQ'lO~.lJ, Q'lOttii,ttllJiiOlJl!)'l£.l.

W'l£.l!!hnn'llJtJt:n'lCJLtllJt!!r;)ti.iJn'llJJJetl8lJ-J.Jeut.'r'ltt~oifij~e,i:i'llJ'CljJn'llJttti, .... t:~'i, i:llJttllJ~'lt!ll"1!1iRlO~U'llJt3-.u.n~iir;)ttEljiilJ n'l1JtnU(fie,U'l!2e,ajd'l':J.enalJfj,tii,~e,i:i'llJu;.ulJ.iJ ~t:W'lU8lJwJ'titretn~n'llJl'Jt:QC"lj}~~nCJ ) ~,;1lJ,~'tCln~iJme'l

1'.euUW~'1E.1«CJlJ,"O"lJJ:iua()~eutlJl1'l1J{I.u~,:tr:J~J·I:J, !1)'lVflJ ~d'ltlJn'llJt~'1t1b~uwt:tI'lnelJd'l'J' ~Ju:Jt:lJt:~ntJt<'m(JIi1'1£.1ffillJ ( tll2()~~,

ii1e,il'1lJcS,r\'10,tllJt!!CJ~lJfi"l;%)h.

'J

11

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101102

BUln'llJ1;)hl»'l~lJii;)'l Q:;IlJ nae U:.\II:'

~51Jn'llJnJJJn'lmt'Js;')~6lJtlJn'llJeenuuuomn'llJtiiun~~.lJlJ,

Biiln'llJ~:;Iu

Btli1'lll~JJlJtttlJuci~l:'~ci~m"''lRe~l(J,n'llJB'''''.

tlJn'llJBt...8~~5tt::BVln'llJi::I'ltl1Q;)()i"S')tm1

~~W'l,

lmJt!5()uuuSmt~jlEJjtil'l~,ilJe~n~'lt\l')th:<!l15()n'llJuJlJuv~!I1'l,5"1lJn'llJlJ'11~~uw"'tJ'l n'llJ8'~lJ't\'llJ, ()'l;)tnJ.I.J uae n'llJt~'lt\l'(l:cij~"'uJ,e'ltn'llJ lJem'lnfllJt:i,t~~-\JlJ~'lnn'llJ(l:vw'lU

nelJm~.uI:'~'l(), ~~tJtn'l')a'ln'lo,

U'l')~.lJlJti6.I.J,CJJ.J~'lnll'llJiilu!l1;)lJtennl:'~'llJttliJ;)t1ie')~jill)U111'llJ?;j6~V

Bmn'llJtnun'1~.lJlJ(l:.tilJ~t::'r5,"u,een(t!lJtnil'l;)Jnt~lJ: 11I'111iilutll;)lJ(en"'ii:l'llJ,(l:.tilJn'llJ~nli'l'llilJ ) VI<ClU(), ;)'lQI:<~'1lJ, /jlJC"J'1~~lJttillmi1lJtti.,ii1;)DG ci'ljVtJttllCl. riy)nU


((Qt.:

/jlJ()'1tenl:'~'llJci'l,)1

Re~lli1']n'llJ Ui']tulJw'lIJ'lo:J'l;)

ti'l:c'i:';lCl8, «ce 1JJ'l~'l

1i'I~t]"lJttll"lJ~llQ'l

2.1.

i;<\I1J.ulile,

(Secondary

data)

'r5lJ'l~.lJlJ'i'llln'llJ((UI1I'1u"thEJtIl'l,e'ln'l()D n'1lJlJ'lt~tmlJtlJ'rQI!Jt:: ~;)£)ttUitUilJ riall aae

1981 ((:.\It::1998.

tilJatUlJn'llJuJVtnJUll'llJVJlJ((V') 'il:'

W')n'lll.ueVGlJ-.l.JauV'l.

~')alJ~'lnn'llJ"ve1;)'l.I.JmJ'lI!JRajlJJ'luthtJ tlJ~;)jhJl!Jt::t;)Q'l~,ri'l;).

t\l'Qnill:'lJI:'Re,n'1lJvJlJ((u'2a,n'llJlJ'l1~6mlJ,

~-lJlJtIl'l')O'llJtmC)'t\t::nr;)-iS,il.u d:Jej

tt'c6mt,mPl<lG UQt:<tnu~5t1JtiJeriS1J~'ln

u'ie')n'llJnt::ii5n'l-v'ltii ( FORCAP rielJ ) U 1995, UQt::


UI~')

((<>It:< ~o~'1n[ioQ'lEJj'llJn'llJ:.:I~W<:lmjJC)t]t::nG-i6')E1lJRe,t(l,n'llJ1illJ~v'l Ui,)me')tlQ;)lJlJJJ'lSlJtnJutilJettu'itf}ilJn'lllvJlJUt1j ttd1u'ro~'lnn'llJli'lt,I1I'lc)

n'1lJ:.:I~w'lm'1n'~'l("iulJ;)l:5JJ n'ilJJmu8lJ-lJeuv'l.1r;)tJSJ.)fnui'iu~-lJlJ

"Qt:: n'llJi"S')mOa;)~,.

n'1lJdlunlJ~-lJlJa<:l~,tlJW'1nli'ltl!l1J.J'lJ.J: U'llJtfiflJ'. tlJ:BlJ~t::uti,een

tlJ..ilJ~d.l')(nunlJ~JJlla;)~')tlJReU'20ile,U'11J

ttlJJtilJc)'ltniJ'l;)Jn~~lJ:

12

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

l\Report\Draft

_7.doc

12/01102

n'l)J~~lI1o:Jom~I.)t"ll<nl,)i,l~E1.ulC)tJn'llJlJ~liul.luttlo.u~~W'lr,) stroctured interview)

llJ~nilulJlI,~~llrl~i5'l~

(Seml-

llJttl.ltl~lJlJl<W'lU (~I.)~r,) 01), llJfilJ,UlJr,)'l~J.H1'j'lUI.J'lEJ@"Q;clnci'l~:ihl~Ci11~.I.I'l:lllJ lJ'lllW'llJ, ttJ.iti~ ,,,,,l< ,(in1iell ,ilJe't1lJ~JJlJtvittri!llI!W'lUii)l<l!pa'l

anc '~lJ: '~'lttrifim~'l2e'U'llJ,

UI'llJ a:QI!tJl<Ul5Clrl:J'llJ,VlJ.LJ'l 5'lilIl!tlJ~e'l!1l'llJ, 0;)'lEJn'llJu~ltIJne'l!1l'llJtJl!~~5lJRe~a:ciQl!ooI.lE1:J tt1J R "tl'llJl!u'l(Jtll!ilCl@"tt(;")nci'l~ih.l(RoBI.) 02). llfmi111£h.ll.)'ltl'llJl!~IilIC)t"ll<nc)Re'OIeui)om-ttt1nci'l,nlJ[~lJ: :i:ll!w'lun'llJ.IJ~l~d~eifin'llJl'JI!

!!'lC"lnlJ,~.unlJ ttQI! 'Wen)) ~~r5lJ~JJ'li:l~tIJ'lc)c~lJnlJ ,/lje~t1lJi.IJlJtvittri QCl@"ttt1nci'ljn.IJllJ,.tenelJ «<;II!lJJ'lEJ~·ht11jJl1'l.IJ.ueuB.IJ-JJeuth

lJenfilJtlJont!5'l'cr5j}n'llJ8I~IJ1QOClo)'l,a:CJlJl,hl~tmlJ, t")'llJ,lJ'lc)CJ'l~o)lJ1:100,000

lClEJj};;;lo)lJi;)lJ!!e'~'lou'llJ.

a:r.rut:l~JJ

"J..i.IJ'c()lJ~JJ'l,t1lJ"l'JlJt:l'~'l11Jn~iJc)RaU'2C"l,·1C"lllSJJmunuW'lu'li'lllUl'l,e'l

n'lClllJi:le,.u'lClI:1~~o)lJt:l"t1l1ci'l~nlJ'~lJ: 1:50,000 UQI! 1:5,000 !!e'ttciQI!~QlIl<~o)o:J'lttut"ll1ci'l,nlJEl D 1981 "0;)1! 1998 We.u();)EJ t1J'lum<JUljJ.Ju 2000.1mJS.uml..lnl.l!JJ'll..l~~Qe'IilI'lJ.J.uCiEe~~lJifia<J::j~uen ~'lnn'llJ~'JtIJ;)Cl ill!tIJ'lun'llJujlJ8IIJW'lutl'l'c.u ttiNl!n'llJlJ'Jl~tmlJuQ<J, i1lJO'l~u"ul..ln'llJtt()e'~l..IlJJl!lI'l

nell "QI! tJl!m;)ClEe,n'llJlJ'Jl~t:mlJ~'cOlJ'J.u'lW~'lQl!lJ'l'~lJnlJ.

!II'l'O'llJmlJn~iJCld~et1 ! ()e~lrot,alJ 'ceCJ<J::jj2flji:lejU'llJ tl'lRflj,.i}aj

tt,,1! Reu[!!C"ln'llJtJI!BClttlU1.1J'lI!~.ullJReu'Ec)i:la'!I1~u'llJ

W;)TI[3'1

1 ClllttJ.ilJe~lJ'lon'l.IJDnrra,ilJ.JmlJnvf"lt:llJl!n'llJl!l1'llJ.uel..l().IJ_.ueu 'c()lJ~l~ti1ej GPS (Global

UQt:I tt!!;)"t!lJ~C"l'JdJlJl1J11'l.IJVlJ'lI!.lReU'E()U'llJ. Qb~'lnfilJ

Positioning System)

tilJfll>.ll!tJEemRc)~'lllUCllJ:Nl!m;:i'l~u'llJ6U'llJ. n'llJn~iJmEClt1'VlJ'lt:lil.ullJn'llJl'J1! 6i't()ci'llJn'llJiI~tIJ;)Cl ~'lnUClQ'l1l~'llJ2a,

SClttJ.itl'c()Ii1~jjj'~lJClJ;)nlJ lolla~lsi~.lJ1JRajn'lllil'JW;)OOlJ l£l~n'llJ ~lJ~tl'l (FORCAP) U 1995.

lJam'll1filJ,11I;)TI[Z'l!r5dlu~JJlJn'llJuB1tIJl1i1l!uJje'lm'llJRe~uci@l<li1euflOJt~'lVlJ'lll t"l'l.u~J.Jt")'llJl<m'lj'ilClt\dim~lJ: £Ieu€lOJ~lJnlJ, tJ'llJn'l,

ffi"n~iJCl§"j

ttlOll!li1eUE;)R'lmi2lJ(n'llJutl~~.ut")'llJ"OIelJ UQI! tJt:lnevnvn'llJi5~mClCiClt"l'l.ulCld:;,)

ii;)Z;)lJfj,,,J.ilJ'cCi~'lnfl~lJ'l()n'llJOnIi1B~u'l~d:llJ~"-i~lUi lCllll~"tluttfeJ.l[nun~~JJlJ 2e,n'llJu~ltIJnQ'l1l;SlJ

1:CllltUiucii:ll!il:J[5elJt~'ltll.l'lli RBjile,U'llJulJUin ~JJlJnJ;)nUIi1;)'l.utt·Clnci'l' '~lJ:

l~ tlJU:UtlttfBJJCll<tIJ;)Cl'cQlIl<,3slJ CiCl6rilJt1J!:~.;)~@I!'J",.;:i~mjilajU'llJ. 1 ntl!ll'l~()'llJ~l;lujje'lm'llJ

u:J.!lJ 'coU)JUim~lJnlJ, -,1 C)lIn'llJlJ'l t~Siil"n'llJ~~tIJ'lO"uv.u~;)lJi;)J.J

"I5JJtttl'lJ;)'lc)i:ll!vJ~e'lm'llJ, t"l'lClt:lQ'l~tljlJutJjt"l'l.u@"'Jn'llJ.

!II~'~'ll1'cOtnu

['iOJ"

Q<Ju,,;).u~.lJ1J~~.uUi'~JJlJa;)~'~'lnl1'llJ,nvniir!JJ'lnlilll!!l1l'l.u ~ ~ ~

UQI! ~J.JlJ.u •

i:le,u,.;:i<J'cCinitiClalJn'llJS'f"I'l"~JJlJ~,G

13

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

a.LhJ~C}i.hJ'~"I1lJltJ:san:sJ.J ci<]'J (

EXCEL

,$e'iC};;)J~tm'UlJQt>UU

aQIO

i1"1'il;)"IJ.JIi:I~WlJ!~a,a

a su

Microsoft

EXCEL

). ,m-BB,mt<'\bchJ~5!5uci"l'J

a.0lJlr;'llJl]J.J"lUtJIiKl"lJJUlJ"lI'J. W"ltJV"lnall (1981)

,ilJeBm"lt<tm'iiilJ~m:lI"lJt<12a'rl"llJ.\J~t~ti3l1 (1998)

a ... tc n"llJuJ1iutJj,,1:<

t!:o;Jt: ibn'llJ.ueuGlJ-JJeUV"I

)
~JJ1J6n5~:n"llJiI~W"lC1 tJt:n'llJuJlJutJ,!Il"ljC1"1lJlJt:1VU'lEJ tlJJ1"IlJi;m:l'li1j U:~I:< mnl:<li:I~~<]'J,t!:.ulJ~CilJ~JJ<]e<],ej C1n'llJlJ;t~!IlOlJ. UlJO"lmi<:lEJ'"IlJt11Jjj;)1Ji;:lJ..I,tlJn"llJi"lj~n;jJo/lJl:I"lEJU"I£J, ,m-atJt:,.ulJCJlJ UQt: U<;It: ~lJdbw<]n~;)lJ'io ,,<;It< al:<ii\u"lmiJ;)nuu:ciQt:~Q

ii

~jtJt:5uolJt<1£JU"I£J~~"l':l;W"I!;), tJ<]tJ tlJa:ciQI:<~lJ, ~"I~no {Cian:

i;nlll"l'ti.j~vu:uut1JmlJ~o~,tJI:<5U!;)12BjlJI01£J

il<l'lJJilmmlJ12a'Ju:cic;lt:w"lm:imJtlJn"llJ~o~,tJI:<5uo1Jt:l£JU'l£J5jn·lO). me,n'llJ.1JflUGlJ-.1JBUU"leaj"12Ol" U:...e mJOl£Jj"llJJJeuchJ-JJavu"leejt.li"aj, mi;)EJ Q;)JJ

UlJO"lmi;)£J''llJ~jn<]Ol '"IlJJJaUGlJ-JJaUU"I

me,n"llJnt:<~Ol)nt:<i5n~-u"I~.u, 12e,O:12;)j

eBjrut:U:llnnd~n~-u'lH;

~tJ'\i,e~lJ"lon"llJiJnIl1BjU"llJ~.u~OllJiOlJJtlJn"l1JJJeuG1J-JJeuu"ltlJi:llJU"llJ.

(l2ot;,n'l;)'UlJt120@'1Jn"lllWOtllt:lJ"lO"lJJ"CJlJn'llJea'Ji:iOtlt:U'llJi:I Qt:tJUlil'J~"I'~lltl"llJ ( 'ql:<viJlJmlJUl"l,,{wtih ) iii'li:Ie,u"llJa.ulJjJ~~ll!ll<]"

tJ tJ 0)<];) ,UlJ6lJ1,.LJlJn"llli;'l, ...nm 13 oellwuec.i"llJ,n~wttr"l '30tm

1l~tt.:,,30ttiitJlO:g"l~lJnn"llJUJllu:tJ'J~uu:uun"l1JO~S,~O tJtl~'l~1J,ii",t"~uwt:<EJ"lne1J!Il~.1JI:<r,:'lOW"ltJ~ll utJ, 101!JIllI:<'W"l1:< 'Dd~lJn'llJDrl~JJea'U'l~oS'J"i1eju"leej'J,

tJt:nsur1U"z,?ill!ll"l'J""IlJn"llJClI:<!!)'lO 'tlm:l"lUl1oi1"30tm~UWt:£J"lne1Jttl~JJt<r,:"Io1Jn"llJvJlJ

Ito;)l:< ttWjilt<uJ,e<]UI<]lJ61nCl'lJJUl'1JJt< u"l'J~l:<jJoe"lotJ1"1£J~tJ,nu"l'~t<jJotJt:<no~lJ ttQt< ,ulJ6lJ n"l1J(,""Jt<W<]O~'

r,:<]o.1Jn"llJuJlJlttJ,Ul"ljCi"llJtJt:QJJ"llJ,IllOl"l.1J!!)'lnw<]t1 It.u1Jn'llJlJ'1{ii<]~"Int1J"ll!JlJen

a:Qtc n'llJO'tcS"o~1JW"ll!JtlJtJl::'Ulo.5,fl1J,n'l1JwmJlt<1J'l

'UlJZ"I,mot-,61msnilt<1Jt<6.f}e,tlJn"llJ\illls,tmlJ

cae

n"llJ'~<]"br.:uwl:ItJ"lnBlJUl~JJl:I1il'lO.

14

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Repot1\Draft_7.doc

12101/02

'~C1l'5n!l:l"lS:ufi;)"I"J..i:u:ua:utlJ'~C1Dnfla~~a, Ja~ d "~;)';)Jj~:U. ~~t:udj'e:mhJ,ili:lf')~ U'l:U~jri'l;)u;J..i:u~:unu,naj1'lj;)J~' :uenthJ,~a~u"l:U~jri"l;)iJv~uJ..i:uutjtm~:u;):u~u"l:u~a~li1~n'l:U~:U bJ~VW~EJ"lna:um~JJ~!:"IC1 (FORCAP). U;ji!aju"I:ugj~"'Jv'~:um"lj 'Qnti 13 troiJa. gj~Q~rori'lj,iium'lj uci ;)Jj~u-1)jLlJ~' tlJfiUul'lj"''lnfiLldjaj VllJ,iiiv ~tJtIl'ljtOmmjja tJ~JJ'llJ 14 fnQU.i:lC1, ul'lj"''ln nlJuwj lJ~lilalJLlJl~lJ tJ~JJ'l:U 113 mQ".i:lCl. l~ati!!:!JJfSlJtl'llJ£!ajlRlajU'llJ iil;)lJt81vuJ..ilJC!2C1!!:!C1atJ fieu "Qt:: ~:u, ~jjJOI;)'lJJ~~~t::'Qm'lnQt::ovml1'llJ~ tIlt::c ...ut::JJ'llJ 200 u.i:l!;)"lOll>.,()t'j~O!2a~U'llJ!IlJvtiilQl>Ol.l mil'llJ~ !Ilt::CQu.u1J ".i:lClilC!2~!!:!jh U<O~,ri'l;) !Il'ljc.uejmlJcmV "!2;)j;):I?~1J~oul>n'lmt1lJU'li!t:: 948 trljLllJ£!ajue;)j tlJn 1996, .e()Ojri'l;) neumu .uevolJ-JJaVU"I .t1lJ'!2C1!1l~'lLlU'llJl'O;)lJW'lI!JV'llJn'llJ c50hi, Q"liSCI Qt:: !:snm'l!l:ll>vJ,e'ltrl'llJci'lj:J. :uanfilJ Vjn iI'll!Ju.ulJ~!:ej~mo.JrJ"llJu'llJ~j~OC1mfl'l " c~atieajtiijgjajU'l1Jaan't11J~e,ciLllJ{'5OJEJn:u. i1jcl1a,eLl'ltmonv1UjjCluJ..ilJtJl>!:'li;1Jt~ct11J'~m.Jni5'l' !2aju'llJ 'W'lt:.uI~lJV'l"ljil.uJJl>1J'lilJJ. iilLl1)snd~a,ut, !:'lOJU'llJl~tt1lJ{i!C1CJl>Bo,~jut::naVO;)I!J,~atilJ'l, lRI;)lJ Ql>C!2C1U'l~lJ~Re,U'l:U. U

m:u.mv,

l:utj}analJ U<!;)~jn'l;)ct1lJmGti1Ji1;)'lJJW'lnW'lV/Jl'ljO'llJ~;)t::lJ'l:JrulJ tielJoJ'lti~~U;lJ.utJl>!:'l;;:lJ C~'lJJ'l8j~lJtl'llJli!la.~lJBnJJ'lzeGu 1970 ~jdlJJ.un'llJ§VW'll)nc~'lJJ'lt1JmG~jri'lLl cilJam'ln'llJCJ"'So nl<~n'l (~l<fllJ'l't:$) 6JJ'ltielJzj(l'lJJm'ljw'lmmJa~mj"''lOJ ~jct1lJ{V'lm30tmtJl<!l'l~1J§vru'll)m~'lJJ'lttJJ dj'ei1lJl)nti'lvt~'lJJ'lW'lEJ~j~citS-JJ~1Jg,tU'l1J ( 1975) lovejCJ'lJJ~nill<:Ul<t~lJ!2e'U'llJctl:ut.B'l~vWn u.u:un'l:uc3ot:i n"l:uuJlJutJjilI:lW'lvu'l1C1EJn'llJt;'nciJnt~atitilJamlJn'llJt1't<3C1nt<l1nlJ t3GtmcUC~lJll'llJ Dn~JJ£!e'U'l1iv~~mJeV~j.t:ucte'~lJU;jileju'l1Jti,~Ui1Jnn'l:un'ljJ!;)i!av'i!C1u'llJ!2a,BlJcaj UlJ'ltJ 1il;)'lJJoJ'l t<!;'l~lJUiji!a,u'llJ"'t<~tJm~n'llJl'Jt<S"C1 dt"lctb~vtul<l!J'lnelJmlJJJt<!:'l()~OCJ'l.u0l;)'lJJI50,n'llJ u iii" BnJJ'lSaC1U 1007 U;j!l:laju'llJ~()tJl<n'lC1tVlJtRC1ffi.ul1'l:UJJevC)lJ-JJevU'l CV:uctrlC1ttii.un'llJutij:e;)Vt:eG i1;)'lJJ3vao!:el.lEhj"'t<u~, u0'5;)1Jn'l1JuJlJtU'liJJJ~tt1lJV'l1JltulJV'lej "'''' il'llJIB'lt\'llJllJtJ~~tilJ. u

tJt<!:'l~:u"J.l1Jl)m:t"lI!JJJ'l"''lnt~JJJQ~tiJ'ltB"JJ3''ROJ,iil;)rulJ,~()JJ'lgj~lJ'I1.'l1J~;)Iil'lotlJleC1tjja,n'li5" t"lelJiO'llmm~e~N'Iil'lJJ,Wj"''lnfl:uA~()~v6t"l'lEJJJ'ltl'~lJ'I1."IlJb'invv'llJm;)l!JC1en~lJ. 6nJJ'lu 1979 ~,tJl< namltJt<JJ'llJ 7 OIeuilO)JJ'lg,djlJ$l"'trllJ~t~,it"amlJn"llJl'JdlG. finJJ'ltlJu 1981 ~~~58~il'l:U~1Jtu'ltJw,ffi "'~1Jo·:UWlJ~ejv'llJ~5cill"JJ~lJ QI::< U t:utta'~lJt5t~tii'l:UoJ'l: U'llJ lJjtrl.IJ,fl'l i:ia1JmGlJ~!:e, !20jV'llJ cVlJ1'ljttnV~j1Jm.IJCJ'll!Jttn'"J'lfi'lj~lJj ~~ri'lLlCV:UUt<"''l J $lt<fjlJ~,t~tU'l:UoJ'llJjml;/ciJ'l UQ~ c\JJ'l~jt()

15

C:\Users\IDRC\Group uJlJJJ"ll~a-cUlJ :"lJt1t<~lJ ul)lJ

I\Report\Draft_7.doc lwlJllle, lielJm'llJ't.utlle~~tliou"llJ (J;/33 a"t< ~,ri'l.,0:.tilJ'tot~LJ'l~lJt\-bt1t<1ijlJ;j. ~'l<lU'llJ~,ri"l.,o:J..ilJ~"lO~LJ

12/01102

f~lwlJme,

.uwlJ~t<t.ue~Ui~vii~166

neefic.

~,t1t<J1eU

JJ i':Ie'~lJ(r.J'lil:

't!{laOj aQt< 't!J1o'l tUlJCllJCl.

Cl'lJJn"llJuf)nd~'lRejC~'lo:rialJ<llzJ.J l1lJ. ~~.u~J.J~'ltiJ'lCa.LJ~O:R"j~'2;)"l',

Re,u'IlJt6"l\1"llJ,

tllt~"'~~lJ

ll.ulJ.uwJ'O:ci

7 E'l5u(Jnctfi"l mO~:Jri"l"J.J'lO:ci ~lJee1J, {1lJtUlJ~lJ.LJ'l

O:ilt< 'toeuwt<fjm'lniij'IOl'lJJQ'JJ'lS:J~)J'~I'llJ~ ~1JcibD 1975 'to.fjtlt<~"l~1J ilelJiaj(l'lJJ a2o,oj;)nlJ't,mnil'ltl~'lmJ'llJ aQt< 'toi<lJJnlJo~Q,~ECl 30 n;:l'l()eu(Jo, 'toil'l'

D 1970 l!ian;)

't,ltIli'ltlJJ'lculJ~t<UJJ'l'ti. J.J'liaJ.nllunlJan tlt<JJ'llJ

riemt<S,tu"llJ,aJ..ilJlif}lJtlt<J;;"l~lJ u'llJtfh.q'llJ, 't6inJJnlJ!J1~JJ'lU1'lnlJ

t6'lta'l.q"llJttrlti~1J~u10:IOlJJm<l()~, ~'t1t<,ti1JlJ u'l1J1Je'l~'to

~'ttiilJoanQ,nlJt!o~;:l"l tlt<.LJ'llJ 30 D.

JJ'l~1Jtlt<1UlJjJ,

,)

3.2 ~JJ1JI:)~lJt"'Clt]~"'~Cl;S,Ei.u 3.2.1 llil,tJtine'-'~e"J~~~m3IJ


d"llJn'llJi':It<~u nelJeej~e,u'llJ, Q'l, 01), aQt:< SCil'lt<~.lJlJ ti'cCi"i'll1 J1'llJi':Il;W'lCli1lJU'llJ. ~'i':I'l.u'lCli':lt<ao,'t5~~lJ;)lJtlt<I;:'l aQt< w'lvmi:i,n'llJJJstJi3lJ-.LJew.h ~'iOl'lvQt<ejoee'~.lJlJllJ lWlJllle, (O'lClt:< O:iOlt<

tlJ'tQ()t<riSlJ

O'lOt<iOl'l,~,ri'lOi':lt<o:o,tmtmlJt\-bm'lJJO:Clnci'l'iOlt:<m;:l'l'''il;lJnlJtlhJee,u'llJ lov~t<cw'lt:<u"l1JlrulJllla~ (JlJ .u'lCU~ 1!6}U ll1iS'~'ln n'llJJJ6uchJ-JJeuu"l

u"l1JcEh.q"llJ 6l.un'llJUjlJo:tJ,. U'llJ:flJlJlJ1e,~o5'''i'ln<>J1"l1JJJeui3l1 JJ6UU'l"i'ln J1"luJJeui3u \ ) W1Jc1iJJ~lJ. 168

qiU<l1JW1Jj}Re,

ii~'l1J:'llJ~jlJo:tl't:mJav. I;:j(m1J'to~'ln

acit1Ju'l~t~"l.q'llJa:5o, O;)(Qm.Jt<r,:'lnelJcflJJJ!'21JW'lVIl1l:i, 77 1Ol6uilo O:;;)t<W"lVIl1l:i,

llOlji':l'ljee,tlt<l;:"lnelJJJn'llJUjUatl,tlJ!J1'l(WJJeu.

476 fllJ cuu 529 flU. rieUl1"lUJJ6Ui3U-JJflUU"lj}Wj' C~JJ~1J 4 Eleuilo

JJ6UU"l .DHlj 81 ()eUfl<l

lielJEleuElmv1JJ~1JtilJ(e'~jc~o"iilJ;)1J"il;1JojJ

16

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

166 U4lJcfi4tl4lJ 476

33 81

77

529

1.t~itj'Cl,)JJlfljjij'ljtJl<~'1nBlJ!2~j~BjU'llllrullfJ1ej ''l1l'',,1i\"~111~OjB'l« 15-45


ilBjtJ'llJ.un'lllU:Clm;'ljl111ruJjd;lm::iBEJ.

U:iOlti

la'ltl'llll€'l~l<lmll't";)'l~O'B'l~~!flt,
111trJlJB'l<;I5jrl'lmi'ij

0 ( Cl'lClt:iOl'lj

02 ) 111ti'i~l<lBjU'l1l.utJtlJJ'llJ 39-42% l~jl(JEJiJOJJu::5o)U'llllrulJfJ1ej,

~Vj~~'cOJfJ1~j'llJ,ujlJ.u

V1iOl'ltln;)'l~~lJo)ll~Vj!2ejU'llJ,a'ltl'llJ.

IW'lt:~~1l0)1l~VjU'l1l1rulJUU3jt(J.jlln;)JJI§'l~~llOlJu1i'1i'fu
,t1i'liJlJ. 1JBni11J(")'1CltllOl'lj5jri'lol:ljZ'l.LJ'l()ilt: l(JEJilt:tl1l'lt:ttJ.bJElo)'l.1Jttcmci'lj!2ej

16.3%, ~OllJtllU'I1Jt6'1tl'l1l,ij~';1l;:'1JWJj"ci,t1i'lnu 4.7%


tt(Jj

ttiitmlll;J;)l1Utt5"'111ao)~'!2ejZejU'llltlle"l1l'lS()flnOO)tI,
1-90.

mllB'lE};;It:V1;)'lj

Cl'lClt:iOl'lj

02: uJuIfIJu~lJe'l'J!2ejilejU'Ill
u'11JlrulJIfIBj u'llltfi'ltl'lll

~lla'l'J 1< 2-4 5- 9 10-14 15-45 40- 60 >60

uee-meu

ii,

to'~ll 1.2

ut:!l'lnelJ

ii,
11 34 40 16 25 27

IDt~ll 2.1 6A 7.6 20.0 4.7 5.1 0.4

27 66 80 78 222 52

19 22 31 65 24 11 19' 27 16

3.6 6.6 11.4 16.3 9.6 0.6

166

82

49.3

529

155

46.3

ehlJn'l)JtnUl1'l~JJ)JW'll1~t:V111'l.I.J;;It: "
E:lJilSjU'l1lu:.um5Clll'l ti!)SjUStl,

'tOQ~W'I()~'llltJt:!l'l~lJ tmlJ'to;)'le'l~uV1i5n!2BjtJt:!l'l

n.w

ecu.

lJel1"'1'1l1e'l~UWl1,u:;50)U1O)mR'I£:jjnB'l~UZl~5ejt~)J:;)"l!2'lV r SU~'ljd'ljJ
Cl'lJ.JU'lll

cnuci!)e,u'l!<sjBjCJ'lJJnciQt:'Jl1'lll,

W t~'l"tJ5u"%'ljlllaodjaj,

ti'i,

17

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

l\Report\Drafi: ~ 7.doc

12101102 9

Z6~U'llJti~.uU'1~E"J6UE1L1tUlJlIJl:'i:iI1~'llJR6~~Cl tCl!!ifi;)'lfl6U(1L1ifid!lCllJ'l, t:smmlJvu'llJ hUlJ!IIB~n fl6~ilLl. ~mJe'l~UtiS".l.JlJBm'lnl1'llJt3CllJ'l, ~LllJa;5L1aJJlJti~~UllJ~I:'It~~t~B ti2'lt~'l~rlJltu,hJCl'lJJa:c\

~l:'t'5BlJ~RRB~ac\QtI Qtlc;)l1'1lJItci~"lJW'lva;5Llct.u1Jt!5ClB'l~UtQl1e)'l' nB'l~uttllJweijl1''1lJ flBUE1Ll, 5u~'l' 21 El6U(l.,. !

2 ElBUE1Ll.

U'l1Jtfht)'llJE"l6UE1Llt5CllJ'1 E1"E"l6U,ZCl'tZ ItQI:'lJ'1 25 flBUE1OJ, ~Cl'ti 8 flBUE1Ll,tUlJWtl1Jl1j'1JJ2 40 t d

t5'l,tb:o.l'l£J~r5aci:o.ll:'u'l1J,'Cle.Je,lio~J;/lJrm(jSj~~!II;;)OJCl It.ulJd';'1't(j~Cl"tijB~mdllJCl'lJJctcit"l'l 1Jl:'ilBu(l"~jct.tija6muti tI'llJl1'lj 3,137,700 aQI:' 3 QtI~UiOI'le.J't(jCl'lJJUtl\tuClflaufl.,ifi!ll'l,u'l1J'tCi'imJl:'ttuClttiii1:il6Uii.,iiJJnlJ, tW1J!IIe, lileuiiLl~JJn1J, jJQ'1£J!5U:::ltIt~e.Jc'Jn jJQ'l<.lZU

E"lBtJEim~nEJ'ln. lCle.J~tlt~'ltl~U'1lJ

flu. f"leuElOJU'llJn'l,nQ'lEJ3Ui<ll:'t~<.I1,348,000 nu. U'l1Jta'lt)'llJjJli1e/jillLl~JJnll, flu.

Ztlt~£J 4,500,000

IilBUiiLlU'llJn'l:J 1,361.000 nu, ctQtI ileuii"lQl1EJ'll1nQ'l£J~Ci l'.ltlt5£J 732,000 ctQtI Ele/jilLl!Ql1Ra,U'l1J(a'ltl'lll1JE1;)'l.u"CJm''l,nllmQ'lEJfi'ltllJtlt~U'1lJtWJJ

nu,f6jmmUilJci'1E"leufl"~,

tile,. Q'1£J!5uioOJlJlm~It.J1J~oJ.J'l~'lI1I1'llJR'l£JfuJCl"I:';:SClnl:'mn~. &1Ll1JU'llltCJ'ltl'l1J (leuElOJ~JJn1J Q'ltlZtI Q;)lJub~,a.JlJ'tCi"''1l1n'1lJ$:'llJ(i1ej lClE.ln'l1Jd'itlt~CJ'1JJU'llJ 1t;"Jb" U'llJBB.ui'l~ ~ W'lCll1J()jaj, io;)lJub,~'cr.'J!5u~'lntiile, tJl1'c.u~'lntE"l,n'1lJ FORCAP. a05;)~~'cu:R'ltJCJ'l.uCJt!

ifi~ci'l,utI(mCla!'1nJJ'11m, io01Jvt,'cCi~'ll1n'llJ!.1t1nBu~LllJllJn'llJ ItQI:' E16Uii;)R'lmRlJ,Ul~ze:JiJ'llJ :o.l'1£J3U ltJ.ilJ'tr.'J 'cr.'J~'lnl1'1lJ!5u~'l', 'tr.'J~'1I1I1'1lJl511

io.,1Jil6Uil"u'lllll'l'

~'1nl1'lllR'l£JfuJr.w13ClI1t1~n~, 'tr.'J~'lml'llJtnutile,t1'lR6,B~JJ'lR'l£J, ~eut~6£J'c.u. 6lJ:!.

1Jem'lI11J~ct.ulJ'tUt3ClLlJl1lJ~UQi6Cl~il'l'@Llu\'l~,UQ~Cl@lJ~', ttllJl1~.utln6lJ~i5'1~ ItOOt<

3.2.5 ;'~eJ~~EJ
t.t6tt,tIl'1jCi'1lJQ'l£J~'l£J, t:nCi~'lI1r!J'llJn'llJ~~!u'lCla.,~, z'lJJ'lmUilJ'cr.'J;:i'1Q'lEJ~'1£JR6'ctciQt<~JJ t"I'llJl:'f"l6uE1L1tit"el1'1lJuSlwn,~tJt<hm "QtI r\'lt~~'lI!J~lJ:J ifi~~ttllJw'leJl\Ju'1lJ. e-,Cl'1.I.Ji;.!J1J titC'iZtl

ttCl,llJ (C1'lCltlQ'lj03) (UllJ'cr.'J;:i'l tlJU'llJhUlJtn6, Q'l£J~'lEJR6j~'lJJ~.ut"l'llJl:'(~C1t"1t1fiClaClmi'ljnlJ'uQ'1E.! ~'lt:J~,n~'l~'1EJ~v. ItJ.hJCl~nci'lQ'le.J~v fi,)nlJe'lJJ ecxr u'llJ(fht\'ilJQ<jEJ~'l1!J ee't(ci:;)tI~.ut"l'llJtlUiI()t1"nCl, tUilJ;:i'lQ'lI!J~'l(J .

3jn
~~lJ"llEletJii;) lOl'leJ'tCiztI(QeJ 3,137,700 Q'lI!J~'ll!Jt(ltltQI!J 1,051,000

tJ'llJn'l~ 12 2,648,000 1,296,000

~nl!J'ln 17 1,348.000 1,081,000

z,n
8 4,500,000 1,987,500

tJ'l)Jn'lj 34 1,361,000 780,000

lQl1l!J'1l1 41 732,000 610,000

1t1l:b!i:~lJ:~'ll1n'1lJ~~w'lClU2002

18

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

~,j} OlJlJ'I C1lJi:lOlJ C1lJt,!n~'1' 0.56 0.87 0.24

t/'llJn'l, 0.52 0.36 0.17

tQmJ'ln 0.32 0.12 0.11

~,1J
0.64 0.43 0.04 0.12

t/'1lJn'l, 0.24 0.20 0.02

tQnv'In 0.31 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.14

OlJhS

"":1

0.29

0.12

ii;'~fl'U'IlJtlt:nfluj}Qt:[lu

1[lji'lj~lJ't\'1lJ3W~lJE1olJ

tijlJalJtI:.ulJn-t~lJUI'Ijt;;;)niii 13 tni."ietTllJ tlJ~8,U'llJ;j~iiilJ.uiiln

Ulji:le,U'IlJ, m!i.lti!'1t~, .m3j3JlJtlt:l\JJEJJ!JlJio.lJnlJtJ1'j'U1i".ijti8,~U'llJta'l~'1lJ ~'1<;)'ltike a:ciu'llJ(a'l~'1lJ.uZ'llJe'ltJtJ'IDowt:tJ'1012t:f1l)'1()iiBtJ tJ1QlJ~~,l:sjtWUeOj. et:mJ'Ion'lj. dSBlJtS'I8j lJ8nfilJv, .ui,a1jlJotJE'lO'lJJ~t:()Ong.lJ:J

'\Qt:lJt~UtljlJa:.LilJ~tlillJDot:nZjmitnej tUlJBlJtI:.u1J13j~'~'112t:f1l)'1oiiatJ iiij~aju'llJ((.ulJii'ltJ3nlJ U.:It: tUlJ

~u'lmB'I~'1lJmUO

1 ID,.i;)m::lt:lJt:t3elJ!l'l1Jea'Jtlt:!l'l~lJ

((;It: dS8lJ~ j.jOlJet:!llJ'I()ttJ1v-iiatJ((.ulJ~1Jnu((ciQt:'t\'11Jt:eej((ciQt:s[l8Uflo.

t'il'Ji(lejU'IlJ.u~'1VlJf)~ej ~tTlrNO'llJ W1VlJf)~jr\'lOlJ~ t~C'Jt:tJ1rNBOU lJ8n"1'ln)jvt:!l'lil1Jiii,~a'Ju'IlJ UQt: u'I1JaaJJi!'1'JVj t~tUlJ[~lJUI'Ijfl.uJJt:1J'I(1lJUI'IjlJ1i (iIJe<;)~;)JjelJ Sjr.ruO't:Qc)U1'1,O'llJnt:~n1j uen "1'1n81'ltl1Jll!lejttQoiiij~a'U'IlJu'Jj}iO'ItimOtJi:iatJW'ltJ il'ltJ (motle'lc)) tlt:!l'li:lJ'trilJ~t~il'ltJmOtl~jri'lo "Qt: tiIJen'llJQJjU'I. lJem'lni1

(~'1tlJn'llJ!Jl~n'l1JO't:Qc) tljlJalJtt.ulJt~'1t~'1'toa'llJe.I'ItI,iIJe,e'llJt:;t~'llJ'l tij.ui:l'ltlmOlJU'lj

iO'IEJt~lJ mOlJCJ'IOiO'IJJ'Ic)c)~U81t:!llJ8'lJtl'cOCJt:weC)u. C'J'IJJn'llJU8mS'I"1'1nut:!l'lillJ

iiij818jU'llJ ii'l.mE1jn'llJ~otl(iiiei(l'l.lJ'l()iS'l'jtijlJQt:uUlJ1iS'lJ'to. lJem'lnui'lu:Sj ut:neu.u uae l('j'jiS'IjttlJ't\'11JW'IvtlJU'IlJttQO t'il'Jji)8jU'IlJu,(t!lJteC)ile,nlJtt~b1Jt)

k,
UQt:

!jJO''1lhfl, ~c)iO'Io)'l~' ,t!lJ"1~lJOlJWO'ID'IV,tit'eut:neuttllJ5C)lJtlC)htmttrin'llJwc)U1t:lJ'I ,ilien'llJ(~OlJ'I

n'llJo~5,~oee,ut:!l'li:1Jiii'8la,u'llJ,i:lt:W'lu3lJt1t,ci'l"1t:~D3lJWJ'

m,~aju'IlJti,.utrl'l

tt:S, tit'e[{J'ln'llJl'.Tt:S'C):nd~nlJC5'llJg.lJ(t!lJ~lJaJ..ilJ n'llJ'J:n't.uttJ1tl~O)(it'e(ijlJ~lJii'l,n'llJ(Zm:lOlJaUVtlt: i:iJJtlt::iO'I~Qt:tJ1ci'l,:n'llJrJn(~'1 UQt: rJnffiC)"uvtlt:~JJn1J,.sJ'iSC) (((i;)t: c)!JJ1Jeen"1'1nIilLl'l.ul1JnEJ'In. ~ ,it'e~Utlt:nlJUl'l,C5'l1J i]t:uJ,e'lUl'llJ

19

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

l\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101102

l2Cl;;mnil'l ~o~m~'1 ~lJ't1"llJ~lUlJ~lJJJ'I.

U;.ulJ~OllnlJ'l tt1,~'1 tlJll"llJCJl'Qc"!,

lEJ.Ju;ciul'~'1~lJlii'~3'U"llJ

~o.un'llJ8,

a,m-utiiJ,ri'lOU;.ulJlUUleClIJlCl3V,

~Cl~,ri"lOU;.ulJltJlJC2C"!tl.uIfl;)"lJJEl3£JillJ!l1il"lV

U;ilt:s ctJ1J~m_)JlJ((tijiOl:m:i'ljC~Cl~',WJj ~nilt:lJt<E10"lJ.JWlJJ'It:ilJJ

ailt:s C2Cl1UCl3£J,;._ ~jn'l~ll'lti{@ollci"lj:Ja.ulJ~c1lln1J'lti{{UlJn'1J.J

ee'WlJtIlr:l"1':JctQt<~Q£Jt:smQ"1t1l((r:lnn'1,nlJ.

a'r:l"1JJn"llJlJ'lt~c~etl ~,ri'l'l6amtJ1J((ciQl'Ut<CWCl~,j:t

OlJ6;)~j2ejth1J

lwlJ!Ilej

((Qt< ii"1lJ ,6"1,,'1lJ !5"l~'1JJ"lClctti, o1Jt/mE"lj

{~etmlJ

Ut<CI1lCloiJnl'K.n~, 8m)'1~.ii,

IllO:ll'§"1J:J (~jQ;)JJdbolJu;:s

ee,u"1lJ, Cl1Jd)"1.J'I,tiOJJUr:l"lJ.J((f1JJu1i"ci'lj:J). tlJi31Jc~etmlJ~;)1JID"1V ee,ii'ijlj(leju'IlJ ll.ulJ~Clc~"lt1JdJe titl"1~.(j!llQ'Ivmi"lolJUt<c!JJC"!g1J:J tito~l'ctC"!jttii,UilJt1J (r:l"lQt<Q"l, 04) ((Qt< dSlJli1:It<llo, 03.

72.1 275.3 4.7

e"~

7.6 260.7 352.1

1Jam"lntil"l1lon"llJ1J'lti{tio1Jllt<in'l

ctQl' CllJt/n~"l'Il.so,lotl~t<c~v2e,~a,ihlJ

titoa:n:,((o, ilt<!m,tlJl.1"lr:lt<Q"lj

tlJ r:l"lI.1t<Q"l, 04 i31J((Q;), tit<'!JJm~e!itl"l~.LiiJ'~"1JJ"lm'l((l.m~Oll"ljQt<eJo~,tno 05. tlJl.1'1I.1t:Q'I,cijn"l;)".u1J~c1~'l((lJnUt<'wotl"l~.ueamtJ1J V"lue,nlJ,

05 tit<'WCl();)Vn1JC~1J: Ut<CW()tl"l~l'!I1';)lJ,

V"lCJt:QCl,V"l~lJ~ ((ill' U'l~"l ~jOO;)Cilllilt<eJCli!"l'~JJl1:

C:\Users\IDRC\Group V'lMlJ~
V'l~'l

I\Report\Draft~7.doc 90 83.3 0.5 275.4

12101102

£12i'~JJlJ:

"'" ~'lml'llJ(iC)'cQ
2002.

0.5 244.9 lturu'lut\-Jvee,tiTlii;nijl'l:

ClJ2a,11'lUltuW'ltJtj'ltl!Jl'l,e'lTl'lc), l'l'llJVJlJItU, ~~t~t:mlJ tru"m'1lJlJ~t~t:mlJ6611[UU

tlJlile,'c~vt:2_a,u

1981 £1~1:I1998. iI'lJj'lc)Iilt:~tlcru ll'lti!l'lealJ,

!la,

'cCiil,n:::J'lvQl:leJC),:::lt:£1ClitlJ aCJlJt:l 01 ItQI:I 02 C')'l.1.!Q~~tI.tufiu'cCi~~£1unUt: £1ciQt:vt:'W(Jri: UI:I[WClV'lCJtJufi'l,tl'ltS'lan, 1981 tl'l5tJtrJ.)'lrreoC')'ln'llJOn~JJ~ 16.4 [u(ii;lJ. Q"m:i'l, 'c:S, lJ'l, ~L1lJ It;)t:

t~etmlJtJl1;;;'1'_

llJ~L1'u

57.5 (Dtii;u, £1C\fil1.1J'lc~,U1998 ~'lnaLltQTlaClC')'lOTl 1998. Tl'llJ[it-.u 1981, S, 0.2 CO'ti"(lJ

BOC')'lT1'1lJUn~JJ~,ri'lLla.tlu'cCiIQC)S'ti!lewJ,ltci m.1JUIi.1J'lU 31.7 to'(!;;lJ ilJl1,n'lLlIt.ulJlJelJ~tm~lJ"lJ mcuu 6.0 tDt1llJ ee,D

~,eCJC')'ll1'luIQClS,l1'';'lLlaJ.ilJBl1ttllJ~~

lJLlU 41.0 IUl.;;:lJ (LLr.ruik02 aQI:I 03). ft,fllJ2'l.1Ju'ld;;'leelJ~~wCJ.j}aLltQmffi".1J~u,

f<a,D

1981, cit.1J~mtllJ 49.4 cDcillJESj8ClC'l'lTl'lUUnmJJtlJu

17.7 .O't~lJ. ~L1lJ'c:SttJ.ilJ1i6L1CQn~ClS'~'ll1 8.3 ;Dd'~lJ 26,0' 1998. tlJfiu fiLimneejl':lLllJ 1998. ~.,lJt~eiil4Tli5'l,~~wCl1iBLI'Qm@"JJ~lJ~'lTl

iJn-Tl'llJIQClSjt~lJTilJ~jtmlJ'cCi~'1TlBLlcQTl 2.3 tD

t!;;lJtlJD 1981 OTlJj'ltUlJ 1.1 dM(lJtlJD tuO'19S1.1J'HUlJO.7 CUt!;;lJtlJU 1998.

I)

21

C:\Users\IDRC\Group tttllJti01:

l\Report\Draft_7.doc u'llJtfi'ltl'llJ D 1981

12/01102
ctQt:I

n'llJlJ;l~tilcllJf2e~u'llJl!lJlJV1e,

"

.-='~~"~;;
<i,"""~
''''''''d"'~

~e:":.1ect1on'lfrM
DaIOO; ~ 1IIay;n)1

!)O""""IoIGS1!181

22

C:\Users\JDRC\Group ttalJi:t02:

I\Report\Draft_7.doc u'I1ltfi"lt\"llJ,

12/01102

n'llJlJ~l~iMhJ!m,u'llJlwlJU1a,

U;Qt<

'"

1998.

-= ::::;'::'~ ~.
«l8~InIJ~f.I ;j,""'_'

_u.sn<InI'l

23

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\RepoJt\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

4. 3

:il~~U

t.i'llJn'llJ~n2l'l£'l~liii~ Itl)JmC1ljJlJ~jltllJi~;)lJttl1ci,

f(I'lJJ'lG~I<~ulliJ!?a~n'llJlJl]t~tm)J!?aj~ajv'llJ~Ci~j;J.i3I<W'lU~lJtrct.ulJ ~bmi'fatrlJ'l cto:Jl:' ~'llJct.ulJ.ueaUle()",~nG . .tilJ~c1~l:'ctG~aantlJcterutl

01 ct;wl:' 02 1.1'l.uo:Jl](ju.~~~le(),))j~ajtJ'l)JIII:'Ill'luu'l~ii1Jn'llJuJlJctu,ir'l'W"'21'l(J,~,B;)IQnnalJ&t'il<u n'llJJJaUC1lJ-JJflUU'lct.ulJ lJU'lct,lhJVJClS,IIDBWJjctci IDli:~lJl~'lfilJ. 57.5 liM~lJ ctQI:' BnJJ'lu 1998 W'ltll1b&tnn'llJJJeUC1lJ-JJflUU'lIlI<W'lUU'lSU ct.ulJl'1".lJI§'lwJ~ctci 1.3

16.4 IUI~lJ, a;)":mee,"i'fe&tlJ'lEiCl~QlthJlDti~lJctQ" uae iijm()ill<w'luB.,~~, II'lJJ'lClaQ'lEl'l~c1ts~i1:

eJ'llJn'llJiilI]W'lCl

(i'fB&tlmJ'lI;l~JJllJn'llJ lielJJJlJfi'lllJ lJ~

t:lCllJ'l".ulJ"1~li'iCl. n-m i!itl~'l;)~jdllJ~u.

ctcitlJ.illJ,nU'l'li'IflU61;)tlj}lfiatlwlJ'l"'~JJ lJenfill,

LLl"iu,~rnlJ'hi~u~'l;)lJ'lliiifl,

llii~(t1lleni'1Cll",~,,~,lliJnl<t1iu1Uictn!;'l;)v'lllifi"'I<U1'ln'llJCJ:~Cl. (lQI:' l.J~ti'i;)(J. li'feifim'ln'lllCJI<~m:i;)lJlm(Jct.ullQJuo:e1JJ rl'llJal<~m::ll<~aQ,o:.ulJt'J~'lJJ'lClal<i.l()'tc1,

t:nill~'lllJn'lllCJI<~Cl,~;)lJltl1ti".ulJ~c1"''lnll11[11J m;)1!J (lQI< IJUBjlll)ci'l~:J. c1;)m!l1Clall~~n'l;),

VSU!?'lC1llli'llJlJl)

O:o:Jl<tl15t1lJ~~;)lJ'!.tl1ti"'I<d:1lJ;;n~I<lJl<ti'imJ!?'lCl.li'f8&t 1ljnu£'IJJ!?B,U'llJ( U'l~lJtjJee'U'llJ HltmtllJ'lrl IIl:'tw'll<twuUlej

ifiU:DJ'lI>~JJtlJn'llJCJI:'~ml.ulJS,~cJ'lnlJ~!;e"

m()
Fl;)lJ

) W'lI!J~bifinn'llJL.1eUOlJ-JJBUU'lt!?Cl~~n'l;)a;J.ilJ~o~()(tlm!?() dSClltllJ~;)lJVnt.O,

. .uWJ~a;cili'feifiu'l'~;)lJl~'lfilJ~c1lJ~till~'1tlJn'llJa",i3ClI~lJ:

ctQI< ':SCllJ'l. iSn:i:ll<lJl<n'llJi]lilfljd1"e6mu ItllJ~6J'"'tc1.u'l8j~lltl'llJ'!.lJt!?()~~n'l;),

ct.ulJ.uIi'l;)'lJJ ctcmci'l,w~JJIi'I;)lJ. nelJ&l"'ll<.un'llJutlnt:;'llJ

~tlnti'feifiUl~n'llJ iJjt'J~ct.ulJli'leufi;)ik tlJU

l'JI<Qmo;)lJlmVtc.LllJ

~c1nn'llJi5u~'l;)Ii1etili,n'l;)

nSlJ&t"'I<nn'lUJ.JauC1lJ-JJeUU'l.

nelJ&t",,,,1Jn'lll.LJBUC1U-JJl:iuU'l lmV1lJt)JlJ"''lnn'l)JCJI<SCl''UU(~()tiltelJ

1996, e~lJ'lCln'llJ[)nli'li"Ma;~,lma;ciQl:'lIeU61;)tllctci;'lI<u'Il.J QBtJ, JJ'ld:llJrl'llJl'JI<QClfi,t1. JJeUOlJ'JJeUU'lmJ,I!?on'llJCJI<13Cl CJI:'13()ee,BlJtCi, lJI<IIBll;)J'~lJ ~,~6fiUWI<EJu, anJJ'l:seCl~nn 1997

Ul'l,e~lJ'l()n'llJDnlOlsjdJsj'tc1t11<C1U()u",ltJu'l(J tlJfillnu'l'li'Ieufi;)t'Jjl'l.lJ'lm~enm'ltl1eifin'll.J d:)e~~!;!Il'ljJ u!!;),n~ctW'

o;Q", Ul<tW()U'lci'l':J. iJm:;'ltJttlg'~lJtl'llI

~(ECltJ'llJm'llJ'l"'l~tI"l,

ttllJ"'Il]lJ;)lJiund'lIOlBUfi;)"''lnli~1l1wllmBj

24

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft

_7 .doc

12/01102

w~n1fi05: Bm~~1J"ll!Ju~I!J!l~1JtlJ1J~V'1J~~ii1im1J uuuB,","o8,v"ci1:1o


tlJnOtw'1VO"lGOv6i8u ~lJtlJn'1lJ tlleti3lJU'IU; "~JJt~, "iv~e~ ~a~tJt::tIJ10 It;;lt:: iiu.!JlJ· euu ;;1'10, ~ottiielO)"l.u~;EilJ 6nlJ.ut::ikl@3lJ

~Q"

";;It:: ii1~5vtlt::rh.li3oVi (nG!JlJ"lvti3lJ,

~a,~JJ

~e~tlt::~"l~lJ,

JJ"lOI:l'l 15). acu

It'ulJ,tllJnlJ.ut::i3o!<e~5~21'1~t::lJt::V"lCl!<e~~"lO,

~~1'SCl,tllJrJ~.ui'le~. ifi1JElo"lJJwt<V'lV'1.utJJ tlJi1lJ~G1J ~lJ

i;iotjt<U'IlJ n"llJt1'1n

21t1t1:;;'"l0, [~m'J:)nu~otjt<U"llJUJJO'ltlt<[!(It1tlJ£8'lY'lnttlJ,

~Clt.lalJn'llJt~eJJ1~JJ~a~21t::w'lultoCl~a.u, It;at< lJt<lvu'Iv'cCit1n"ioc1jtJt<CiuCl.

lovlllt::(W'It<u;'ulJ*uwt<v'InelJO'1'c.u. lJt<lvu'Ivt:1nlJQ~"i()c1,tltiCiuCl .ueUC1lJ-.ueUO'l. n'lJJoJlJu:tJjlJ~t~6mlJ )


aO:>t<

!!l"lVJJ'lOot<n'1t1 ucunuo

It;at< ii1,lJelJtlJ

IttJlJ~'1JJIJf!j.ut<~m.,ej tJJn'llJ~n~"l~lJiio)'1~jG

1'Sotjt<U'1lJ([,UlJlJt<lvu'IV

It'ulJ~6ttiiElo)'1.u;;:;~ih.lriJonulJt<lvu'Iv ( tiie~~lJ,[jje"ltl!O~ 02.

«ce mOlJB1ii

UlJCl'l~lJC'lalJtlJn'llJ~CJSjtJt<CiuotlJltth~t<i1J n'l1JtlJn'l1Jilimo'l a.uJJ'cCiu)JO:>t<v"lvtlJw'Inm

W'lnm01Jt:1riJOlRS,.

5.11J,,1I!Ju~l!J.ueuB1J-.uautl~ UQ" l!on~1Jtt"a, 5.1.11J,,1I!JU~1!J.uauB1J-.uautl~.


~~ifir\'10J)'lR'I~[iii~i1JJ, lJt<lvu'IEJ .ueuBlJ-JJsuo'l dtetl'lnDntln~ni3'1 tj'ljO'l[3o't:5auu~t::~'1v ~uwt::v'Ine1JO'l

t1J

V"tVlO

Ii<lVV

Q~:J.

aJ.JJJlJe1Jt1J

8 al'J1J,'llJ

IJ:i5JJt<~Cll!e~Qotjt:: weJJnJJtllJ ~'~t::~'1U~jri'lO)t1J to.

U'I1J. -;'CJtJI:!S~aJJt1Re'OlJn''llJ5,r\'1Ola'ulJ iiijtU1J~'11J tI'In~CJCreM3t::W"lUn'1lJ

*uwt::tl'lnelJo'l'c.uttiiil,v, t1Jii~mmllotJt::tIllG.

tJll~U1J, lIl'lj1'Sotjt::U"l1J ti'O'ltUlJuClt-;,wnifit5Gttii SUln'l1JtlJn'llJ~oSjtJt::Cium~'ltJJoJn~'1lJ5,ri"l0) n'llJ1JilO)lJ:So.u 1J"lClSj~Uie,tJJ, a;;lt:: ~oz1.JulJm'l.


,

~.utlJtllltHlCl~ClE~v"l,oe,

a.ulJal:lnd"ljeElm'lnJJt::lt1u'lvg1J:Jt~lJ: n'llJc.:rd3o. lGtliilt:ltllJ"lt::a'u1JI1'11J ~'loti'l1.J 11t::-;''lva~

Ra~V}nW'lm,'o)lJ-;''ln~JJn'l'

~,"b:;'lntj'llJ

tCl£J1l"llJlJili01.JzoJ)<;j"lne'llJ"lGn'llJunElEljUiEl,t1.JC'lt::!1)amib

aGJJ;at<mo"lju"llJC")tJ'llJ.

~~

tlJn"llJElocQen REltJtRO~"lti

10EJiill:'ltu'lt::a'ulJn"llJn~j}Cl,

~ClcttljtJt::tWOO'l~£iihCit1nJJeutw'lti . ifitll"l,;;bqllU"llJ
iii

uce

~tJtut::tI"lnelJo'l~£ia.ulJtt1lJi'hJm"lil'JEllJ· llt::ltlu'lEJ~,ri'l;J 'cCi;;MJW"ltlt6mo~ It.ulJ~Onn"llJ2idiJJ~5,aci "oJn''llJ~.lJElej,

tJ tI Q"lO) ttiiElO"lJJi3lJt<;jtlJtll:I<;jUJJ. ~tltJ ';)'10) W'IEJ

1990,

~Clve,t;;i

Cl'l;JO 169/1.JEJ Rej~krqt::u')1.J aool:' 8lJl.)"l~£i·. 1JJ~;Jjt;JQ'l~~ri'l0,

w,

lJ~t~i'iuwI:IEJ'Ine)JO'l~£i ~CHJW"lvmJ;JtI''1lJ

t:1o'J;JCJ .ill31ll::inwG,1lJn"llJ~ClS,tJt::(1uCl

aOOI:Iejn<]JJti3ul}o~eu~Cil1n([d,8jg.1J ~f)nCl'lQCl~,r\'1;J~1.J, ~Ciii'l)(~Oll~~ Ito:>I:'uTlun~njl)'1 nCltw"ltllJ1i ace 1996 ttllJ~lJ.u<]

,ita~n~tm~nw'lTl~;)lJt1nJO)e~~tlJtlotJl:"tIICllJOJ~u~Cl8,ut::StiCl. ii'l;J~tJtl\~T1'llJZ"l,tilJG'lQl:'uJu *uwt::v'Inel.ltllOJ.lJI:I~'1CJ. ~uwI:'EJ<]nalJlJ!J (nl:'~o)~Tlt::jln~ nCl!JlJ'IEJ ItQt:: ~T1'JllCld'l':J

~W;JW1J(l\~;)JTI''l1.J~JJ£laj nCltw"lEJtJ'I~£i, nCltw'ltlti3lJ, (~.uadD

ulJo'lnolJJJ'ltltljri'l;Ja.ulJ~Gar\

aQI:I nCltllJf)v§-lJc")'l.uQ~('lu, aQt:: tJ"l'cii, 1998).

ihCit1n5u:sej<;j'lnmt::tu'lamj!:"lCl

25

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft _7.doc

12/01/02

fill.u"ltlJ~O' U 1994 W"ltlW,ifijJ()'l~() 186 ci'lc'iotJfno~ "ll"llJ~U'OlJ ~QI<OlJtl"l't.u(ID"ell"llJUmJ"I ~o.ll<tJ"liJe,illJ" l:c'lttll~Cl5jUti8u!;")w"ltlL6nmJlJ"ltJctQI<nm1lJ"ltitiolJ. tIDSC3()ttiiOJll'"IlJ~j'l'l:)~5\ill ~()g,cl"lj(nJJ(.i:lm11JJmlmJ, lll<!:Ojlll<i111'l-tJ"I'til l:GaallJJIOEiriJOnU~mlJll"llJ~()5jtJIOEiUCl 0822111llU.tlJ.uIOEi~,ri'loct'ulJl:cio.JlO~;O)lOaJoriJoiiu (l'1atlJeejll'llJctu'OlJ-ctu,iMtlJh~tltil1lJ(~lJ:

,.mm

,$e€i.ufila, ctQIO lJ'l'ti:~uwl<tJ"lllalJ!1l1jJJti:O;:"IdlotlQ;)JJ 0tJillO(W"ll<ct'ulJll"llJiiJJfila, 1 ctQti ll"llJlJ~ t~ffi3lJ, tJ"ll:il ~Ql<ctuijlJ1iV"ljnUl<ii()Eio)J($a3UUl<nlJ 'i:ciriJOlnU;)Jll'"l1J~~lila, a;:ItiW"ltltt;)O o'Se.u,1il;)'l.u~a.ui:iJJl;/lJf<a,~vwl<tJ"ll1elJLlJa"l)J'lfl(). tilJa~mJ8lJ ";o)l<Suo'S"lj ll"llJ"tl."I,tJ"I(30l:Z,lOtJll"l)J~j,iJJ "Ql< ruO!1lti)J"l0Jllj"llJnl<l;ll~-tl"l'i:.ii cttlui1,ti, ~ll~ "Qti :i"l'<:J"ltJZV(~JJ'ttiiUlJo'lflevfloV}lltl"lnl:cinQ"ltJ'tci,*)J ~om'lctlJoWlJti'tQJ"lIOi)J.i, tiOi'j"l.u"l()ltiiO)JO"I<.~O~j~)Jllci'l,fi"l. tlJtilJl:G5"J'~"ItQJ"lVLlJn"llJti~titll<CiUOlJl<ltJu"ltJ ll"llJJJeUOlJ-JJautJ'lLtiia;:l~'~OLlJt<auu2mt;) Uti,!1l()W"ItlLlJU2005 (lll<!:ojnlOiill~-tJ'l'til, 1996). ctelLlJtJtl"yUlJ,"'u1JEi,~u6UtiEiuo 1J ..ltJfJ"ltJ~, ri'l;)Lm~~'~ov'l,t1J'ihLtlf<aucemtOtJlOtUl() W'ltJLlJU2010 (OJ'~1J!1l"l.u, 002). ttoh~j6lJntl6iu6 2 l1'llJ~C)8ju .. Eii:l()1Jt:1VU"lE1~,ri"lO"JJlJut:l'1eujJW"ltJUlJm"leiovnlJ'~lJci"l: UlJO"l!l!JU"I1Jtitri"ljl:m1l81'1wn ~.nt~1J!1l'l,i1JJt:)J"lE1JJ(§'ltth @~"IJ.J.,m~"It\bl:eiwJ,ctelQt:'Jl'1"11J()JO: ;utJt:.u"llJ1J"'I~lJ01J"'I~n(),2'm~n Iil"Q"llle1J!:~lJ'llJ''')J'tlJl1"1lJ''iog't1t:EiU() ctQI<§"lJ:J.

dJe,UilJtiiluctJJlJ,umjJe,ti".n~U"UV!1l~l'1"lJO"t:~() IIiOlJLmiJ JJlJejt~11"lJ(3milOlJ ct:\lt: tis!;") " hltulJ~1Jr;1. tl'1eik'i:iLlJ!todJejmlJtmu".ulJ.u~ ut<.u'l1J5,000 'Zl'1C"l"l .uUI<.u"llJ ,000 lilauE1ot;jJ ":\ItI 7 a'l~U"tl.'l,tJ'l':S()l:i,ulJe"l~ualJ6. ejC"l'lJJl'1"l1Juemih "'I"llll'1"1lJZ~tII"1owtltin'"llJ~lJdJe"rietlOlJllj'llJ .LJauolJ-JJ8uu"I"'It<l:CiS,JJ :';lo8,utlEiuo lII"1je'llJ"lOl'1"1lJDmlS"ne, lotJztI'W"ltlmlotJj"l)J.uavolJ-.LJsutJ'l l:c'ia:i,lmtJtir,:"Ii:lJ 1lJ a:elQtlu"I)J!:"Iu;iojuii"l tUlJtoQ"I 5U (ihiii()III"1,a:QtI )JtlltJu"ltJee,~o"t1t:u"llJti£.l"lmJoOll'llJ\l"l,tl'ltl5o l::5"uUt~alJQBtJJJ"ltU1Jm1J'3()lJ"I a::;;)ti:iiljti" (tq/lJoJlJ) l Utir,:"lne)JiiOlJLUI!l!2e"ne,UilJtWU, ~Ol.jW"ltJa:JJlJ~JJil1Jtl'i:Cia~wl<liu(:oJ1< limJ"ltJJJ"l"'l"lllUlJ ( O"lcteO~W"lmviJBt~1J:~,eO"lj "Q'" til~WlJ. ~OlJW"ltJct;;;OctJitl'tnvl'1ii"ltJJJ"l8'~lJ"tl."IlJLlJCRmjJB'~~ ri'l;) tluc1,a:ell!l",'ttQJ§,€l"l.LJ, :elllJfilJ~.uu"l~molJirl'cGii"ltJJJ'Ic1~~lJ\l"llJLmiW"lv~htrtc'i.ul1"llJDotletJu", a [1110:;:'10. rlO'lJJa:t1l1el"lj",e'n"llJElnli'ltJ~jri"lO, a:.ulJD6uLlJn"l)J~ll~e, uae \tfla,rn-u1JllJuel;O)I<U"llJ1lJ tem.uejWlJtmu. l1"1lJ~()€l,tlt:~uo lJt:lt1u"ltJJJeuolJ-JJaut1'l a:.ulJZ"lJJ"loa:t.ijsel'1 ,ulJa:elQt<lfljZ"l,ll"llJ ~()8jtlt:Mo j'lJ,naj ~ti"Ul<~U()OJl1j'llJaOl~'.~,n;O)"ltJQt:aJ()e"l'~.LJ;j:

26

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft _7.doc 1l"llJ.lJauo1J-JJauu"l: ~~;)';)J:J~1J~J..i1J~f<;):Jut,t;m.smlll:1Jl:v'l"1J~ul:nau ~~()~Sj~()l1J[f<mD"1J~' ea:J[~6tni

12/01/02

jll:ru"lUQ;)JJf<a'~f<;),ria1J
5;)1:.1

ffi,wJ"

dJ1JiJ:J ~;;.)l: ,e()~(;)aEJ.

l1J:81Ju:-~"lna1Jf<a,~e;)~, 2001, CJomn

((QI:< 'U

(;)61:.1((J..i1Je,t~n'l1J,3(;)~i,tllJ6"l~U~1J';. lll"l£JCib 5,000 [3m)"l.

t1JU 1996, fJJ"lEJt1J((e;),.uv'l"1J~

tn5"t1"l:J[ilJad5()~i((.tl1J.u Raj((eOj~lliri(;)~jn::i"l

fl:Ji'ilJR"lJJCJnJ.J"l3a(;)U

[OJJ, ila1J,.ua:JQaj~"l1J~jtlJdJeriB1J ~J.JE"lajeaj~e;):J0J:J~1J.

((.tl1J~lJi'iU(f2(;)t'ihi'J()~~~J.J';I1J,

t1JUl:,U1J((.t.i1J~fJJ"ltltt1n,)1J 15,000 d5nt"J"l.

i'Jt:I:81J~jd5()ttiiCJ;)[Qneajn"lm5()~iw,)l:.Il1J'R(;)((.tl1J

[ilJBiJntJn3m.:I'l~UlUt:l:.I"lna1Ju"l~.u

((;It: a:II],1Jti.

[ffi"BS:J[~.u ttii1;"l;)U'llJ~ci1JoJm5(;):J"llJUI;~m1lJii:J.

m.u:J"llJJ.JBUOlJ-.u6UU"l !1l"ltl, lOBj t1\j~"l.u

Ut<1'16U.u Wl:i:ll'1j"l1JU"l~.iJutjlllt:!1l"ltl,

Wt:i:ll'1j'l1J~"lnwt:((lJnt"J"lQ1Jut'llIt<

~t:m"lI:.l""i"lntni;)EJ'"llJ.lJ6UOlJ-JJeUU"lRBja:e;):J,

ii db

tii"lill:!Il"lll"l"lnme:Jn<JlJt.ua:J

[@"et.It:C1U();)Jnj"llJJ.Jev(i1J-JJ6UU'ltlJa:ci;lt<u"llJ. uU'l<lJnmn ,RBjmJJ''llJ.uauo1J-JJauu"l ~J.i1J(~,t~ n'llJ~C1a:t.ijt.It:[lU()U"l~.iJ aae .uavltiiU"lll~.u

Elaj. ';;)lJ[i.1Bti31Jt)"l~.utlJ..i1Je't"J"lJJEl;)"l.u[al'1l:ru"lUnlJm'ilejU'llJ U"lt"J"lJJ((c\Qt:m() ~Qt:

((lOll:< ~ci~()((u:JBamtJlJ((ci;;')t:t.It:[lU() ( olllJn

tDd!lJ();)"lJJfJ1J"l~uiilJeaju"l,z;)lJ(i.1a~1J1'1'JJJt<ii()2ej~'l:IJ~niilJ ) a:J..iJJe,tiil [~eikB;)~, tl~'1;)u'llJ~5.un"lJJ~U"I6j.u'lriBlJ

ii"lj,01Jm;n'1lJ(.J't:S"C1nt:iil'1~ SjE)lJn'J.ut:liim1iCilJtm()euii;)fi1J~. tlJ;)Jnj'11J [t;:at: cuo

[t"'t< ~5aatllv

JJaVQJJ-J.JBUU'l

~jri'l;)[t~ut:l'1eu5;)1I

~t.Imnj"l;)Jl'1~JJ';,

[tc\t1JfilJuii'l;)Jl'1tt

(~()

~.t.ilJEJj~m1J~r5fin~(;)8jut<~u().1(;)lI:':lt«w'lt<"J..ilJea(;)~'t~JJ ml'1

[tQt< t.It:(1JlJr.ru. llJ[tc\"'t:u"l1Jtt

m'ljtni;)EJj'l1JJ.Jeu(i1J-.uavu"l~ciS:J~()8,ut<C1U()~J.i1Jti:t;)Q"lt.It:.u"llJ ii'lm"lnm'l,m.uj"l1J~il'lJJ"lCl"ii~2~ci,

db

((t.I(;)~lJr5;)lIi'i1J.

t1J~QI:<D"

".t.imt:~o.ueu'ttii!1l'l,Uia:Jl'1"l1JiJn()a"jje,'tl1J~~;)tJiiJ"I"lQt:1J'l

((Qt: ~ii'c!!.r.i'l1J.u'lm.uj'llJ~,ri"l;)[t.t.i1Je:J~6til1JiiJvUlJtn"l~,ri"l;)fi1Jul1a.

27

C:\Users\IDRC\Group n'llJ.lJeuCilJ-JJeuu'l ~'l,n'l~~ot/t<tWotmlJ

I\Report\Draft_7.doc tS'll()v:;)oJJIL;io ILJ.ilJe,l~~lJ~lJ, i5nlllt<lJt<'U.lJi5lJ'tj'llJBo::j,.

12101/02 lW'ltJflO'l.lJ

IL:;)t< ii()~~~lJifict.ulJB,l~d"'r:ru6ttthJ:iOolJl!l1v, t(Qt< ~utJt<.lJ'llJ.lJ"I~lJolJ"i~no. lti'ictrie~lJ'l()n'llJOmmjd}aj. JJatlCilJ~JJatJu'l~1Jn'lj,

~olJn'llJ;SoIL!J1nti1atmo~,a;J.ilJ llJeJ'l1.J.lJ'ltr1'l,cte:o'''it<.lJauOJrI''lli~' JJauGlJ-JJeuu'l e:aj((e:Oj"lt<

dleu~'l"lt<~~r5t/t<8uoiielJ'o:;)'l ri'lollJm1.JQj~o8~tJt<6uo tUlJ~tJt<il'llJ''llJlJ~ti1ajn'llJ

ilolJti'iejn'llJ l1Jn'llJi;lt<lQu

t(:;)t< ~1Jt(e.ru'ut/t<JJ'llJ. ~,llJctc\Qt<u'llJvt'~(lo'l.lJ6ej 6tm'ljtiiejn'llJJ.JfluCilJ-

ILe:llJ~ut/t<JJ'llJILJ.ilJi'l,lm.Jti1e,n'llJ.lJauCilJ-JJeuu'l~mj}e" n'llJ'utJt<JJ'llJllJn'llJtJt<8uofio~,ctJ.ilJ JJeuu'lglJtj}e,~r5sua;J.ilJ n'llJJ.JeUCilJ-,lJ6UU'l ILtloctllllJnu. a;J..ilJ 60 Q'llJnu, 1.5 .;)'llJnu.

ctri3ut/t<J.J'llJu:u,ulJfio~, 2000,

BnJJ'l:>eoilnu

~utJt<JJ'llJllJn'llJii,tlt<6uofiOJ~,llJ 6t"l'i

~,llJ3utlt<J.J'llJ~,ri'lOILJ..ilJQoJJDi,n'llJ~ot~tlt<na1.Jc\'lj~

.ulJt@"e l~'~'lllJoJn''llJ~,ri'lOJ.

0Jn''llJJJaUOlJ~JJauu'l U:il1:lfI'lool'lllJU2005 Dm;Jllfio~, 'tj'ljU'l

llJu::eOJ,oJj~lJ,

~r5eJ'llJn'llJtJt<6uoDi,u!i(J

tlt<JJ'llJ 60

db

70 'U'~lJ

6t"it<.lJ'ltti"fl,

m'ljIL:eo'Wt<V'lJ.JV'lJ.JtJt<8tiot!lii:l'it~ollJ:eaut:e(Ji!ioILRojl2ej6lJ. iI'lJJ'lOILi'ih2~iloILV,llJn'llJlJ'i1~tmllglli:i'llJ, llJrI'llJZ'l, lQoeJelJn'l1i

ae:o,:lI'lJ.J'lOoo1:lIQu'tOa;'u1l

t(:;)t< ~oillJctu!J6dlomJ'lv.

slOtll2;'lou'llJ

a;Qt< eem,Jt<!JJ!JllJll'llJ~J.J(la,~uwt:tl'l •

nelJRejCJlJ.

i6011,o~allt1m'ljtt:eOjt]eot]elJ~Ci,,JJlJ JJeuu'l U'ljU'llJ .' flO'lJJi?:m~lJ

tl'~il'l.u'lotlt<Citi()~otQn:JuiJ'l0JnRaj iielle,)ltOll'lllfl'ilJOlJ

n'lllJJeUOlJ"I'lnILm.Jt1di'lElJ.

l2ejn'lllfl'i1JOll,~llt16;)~,(ujlltl')t1~

ifid"llJ n'llJJJetlCilJ~JJeuu'l

~tJct.;);),ct.lhJ~il'l.u'lOUlJ'nCltlt<~,t10'l,'t5 ~ tJaQ;).

ILQ1:'tlje:'lCln'llJOm"l'lJJ

W'ltJID,)@1r5lJ r1'llJJ.JeUOlJ-J.Jeuu'l

C'llJn'llJ:lI~W'lCJlJ~ti1e,n'llJJJeuc)lJ~JJaUU'lRa'JtIJe" OlJ~JJellU'lILJ..ilJ:

iI'lJ.J'lOilt<lQu't01CJtlt<Sj~nllJ

n'l.IJJJeu

tWe~Clt(ujd')at1u'l't.ulti1 utetI"ll1lQocalJt(ZjfiOCllJ

"ciQt<i:i'llJOnt1n5n~'l. 6n'llJIQCJQ'Re')~tlWt<tl'lrlelJU'l~.u, lmJilt:'w'lt<"I'lnll'l1JT\'ljtr'l,!5Cl~i

ILUUI2;t<I2;'lV IU,Jt<"I'ln1l'llJClCl't.um~Q'lvU'lILu!J1JCJfiomJ'lv. [iO:SJlJti"!Il'l'tj}e'ilt:lQu~Ci"l'ln ~od'llJ 1l'l1JJJeUOlJ-JJeuu'l: Z1:'W'lun'llJ'r\'l,tl'l{~()"Zl()v"';)J.JRajdJejlfi

n'l1JJ.Jau-01JJ.JeuU'lttJ..ilJIQClS"

l2;'lOJi:i'l1JrmCl~JJ1~~urut<v'lna1Jt1J(:eCle:a,B1J!5u6ol2;eu ctQt< n'llJlJ~li: n'llJt.lt<8tiClfi;)~,l.IJctcl

V'lji3JJ!.llJnllu,

~c'iz')J.Jnuu;cl:;)t<i:i'llJi:i'l'Qt<QaCluJ,n'llJ~.lJfle, l2'lo3ut/t<.1J'llJ

,m:iBlJt1T\SCl'tjelJ~c'i: Q1:'i:i'llJl~(;)Q'l~lJlwCl, ct.JlJa,l~n"llJSlJtr1t<lJ'l

(l;Qt< ~tJt<nslJ,llJn'llJ~Cl~~tJt<8tiCl, «ae

:e'lCl!J.J1:'tlnj'llJB~'ln'llJ6;)~') ILQt<uemS'ltt1lJ~;)lJllJ1v.

n'llJ~r:lt/t<'!J.JCld:re6t!ll~n'llJO't<~mi'l':J 6t~CJut.i')Vt<t!J.JCln'l

lllt<filJ~j~jlliJlti1u'l~t1iej~lJ

lJeJ\i~Cl ~tJIL0'5OJ~~'l.1J'lCl~o8,tJt<8uCl ~ C5tl"'l,tClJ.J d:imo.1JmJOJv.

28

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101102

f(lt>uJ,e'l!ll'lll t1t>neumolli:l~iilltml'lllCl~B,~Cl ilt>uJja'l!ll'lll

f2e,Llt>E:'l~1lti1"t1l60t.uB'

ctQt> ~1l1lt>[lCl. ~.nE'l<:l'l.u!llJ'lV ctci.i:1l1li,wowli 11'111

E'lo'l.u.utdlllilj!ll'lji5'lm:lt>uJ,e'l!ll'lll

RajtillCl'lE'lalJi1otlltf2Cl~lIl1t>[kJ,

tuJ'ctcieruCJt>SClnt>~n~ tiwom2'lCJI<SCltCit1Jn'l1l:SJ'~ClLlt>"l~!I112ejtuOm2'ltz1i'lib. ttb~uctulJf:!ejn'llJt:lt>SCl, n~JJI<~CltlJn'lll~JJlilillJwt:tI'lnell,

ttutll~JJt:E:'lCl, n'llltl'ljU'lt5Clhs,

Clt>W'lCl, lIo'l.u'ICJnci'ljf:!e'ltci~t>lIeui1o

It~t: ~JJilll/'WClto,tlln'lllt~'l,ti,'ilt>UJ'B'IUl'lli

tllQt>~n'lllCJt>

QmAi,v. ~t>:fi1lfJO'l.LJui1lJi1jtll'l,Ci'lllill<uJje'lm'lll RBjI!PJ~llU;J..ilJnuClU'IClil~iillt:t~Cl,~,tll:filJ.i:1lJliji:lt> ttCl,tlfilmli ,ti,jfi'lO~.LJ~lJWlJ!l:B'tIl~JJt>E:'lCl6n'llJCli]B'~Cl!l:ajctciQt>~JJi1lJtll~,il.l!:filJ'J. tS'lanv'Ijutju'lHl tt'ullLlt:nBlJ~OlJelJlili]iilJa1l6, tlJIIO'lJJm~ru1l2e,i11J ItQt> tIli]JJt>E:'l(),

'W'lt:jjlJt1:JmjelJ~'Mruaj!l)n~'lIlnv'I,tmctri!J,ln'J~.uillJ u'l2e,fljct.ulliliJ()U'ICl2l~i'ilJilt:ltu'lt> n'l1li5'l'Q'Itl5Ut~.LJtmltrit1t:E:'l~1l, iI'ldle,U'l2a,C;"tCilllt:U:Cl,tmtmllci'l 6mjjlJnuUl~.ut:i':('1Cl(IUCN, 2001). lJanw1JBtt1nci'lfilJ,

tllmB'~ll:filJ'J

(Vanesterik, 2002). tll:fill,,~ej

6n'llJCl~B'~ClLlt>",~l)1J !l:ajLlt>E:'1~lJ ,,:.\It>jjlJli,Llt>nau~olJtlJ t~Bilt:!IlJB'fi'lO'l.uufllJi1,tUiE:'lOli'llJtlJn'lllCl~B,~Cl. lfi'l,n'llJ~n

85 tUtillJ!l:B'Llt:E:'1nalJffioLlt>ttllmujlJCl~Q'~CllCltlB,tmUl~JJt> 87 'VtillJ f2B'~'lVzuti1,mlm2a'Llt>E:'l~1l~t:tCl~Q'~(J

E:'lClItQt>tlJ:fill(ilajU'l2B,C;'Llt:nBUmOlJiI~iilJ

t&\B,U'lf:!a,C;,u:.ulJDDCllJ'ICl~1lt1 6nu~.uillJt:t.u:.\l'ltl5UCl~, (FAO, 1995). ilB,~.u~,ri'lO

t~at:tUl~mlJ

CJt>Qm~n(J lmJ:;:]t:ttu'lt:It'ulJ ~li, ctQI<Il'lnliev U'lf2e~C;, t~Bn'llJ(J~B'~ClLlt>"'~!Illt1:Jll~llti.

.ill5nilt>lJt>n'llltnud)'e,

t~BI1:Jlln'lll;'1t1tlJn'llJilt>It(J',

etlmu'lmti,jfi'lo'lJJctClnci'lj

tlJn'llJI~'l,ti,'llIt>UJ'B'Im'llJ2e'Uli ~JJ~

Cl'lttuCltO ct.ulltCiQou;.)o.u tt;.)1:1 tc1ttUjBBm1:Jm"B,~.utUlEi, E:'ltl (Qo.uUi,~tt1Q'l~(J) ItQI:I ~.utt.ulij (Qo.uUi"Cinliev~vj

,~,tc1.,O.u,e'lila,iJ'l1H~'1nll'*lI: ttQI:I,l'lmJev~E:'ltl)

B'CJ'I.LJ~{Il1tJill:I~U

tc1"''1nn'llJi1'J~W'ICl,.\ILI.uUl'~{Il1mi5"l'lnn'lll~'tn(JaLl~' : t1JlJtrlJUIILl'l.u"r:l1lci'l"tll2l'lll'~'ltti.'~t>lJJ'B'lm'lll, (;')oJJm,tCinv,

iI'IJJ'l()ill:<U1U'r:c1~,iJ: Qt>Ulci'l,ttu.(JE:'ltl(lI'ltltu'llJ) ItQt: tW()lij 'tUt'}"lVJI;J°l

ctQI:< tonE:'lEJ) "'l.u'lClilll(m,tm(!i1l1ci'ltWCl~'ltll:l'lJJ'lm~'l(ii'iltlUJ,a'lm'll1

(WOO, QO.LJm,mloLlI:IJJ'Ili 0 E:"'UO, eI'l;;utWOv,:lI'l.LJ'lmnutCi 3 dlutCiijetl"cici'l

29 E:ll1JO~JJ~li"ti"oi'lti!'1t~'1Z'lJJ'I() 6 aaoo ~'t')'1(,')tliO)'1'~JJiJ:

:lI'IJJ'ICl~mt1119twOOe'lm'lllwn, ~JJ~E:'lV~O'5tuJ'''ci

Dn

PM, LNX NX, LNX, PM PM, LNX

29

C:\WINDOWS\Desklop\Draft_:7.doc

12/01102

",
20

NX

NX, LNX PM, LNX NX, PM


PM hUJo tllJ~mmo': ~lJ)JOJlJUlmlJ... I;)'1I;)"Q"l~l<e~ ~~~£J VL a:1>l" a:J.iv~ ~lJ~"a:O':t:~W'lt:tJt:~WOl<S,a:C1Qt:~t:iJCl, JJ"llJ.

~;)lJiOI'l£JQt:BJOl1l:<~lJ"l (U,tlJ(el1t:~'1lJl1J;)l1U~t:uJ,a'lm'llJUlC1Cll<Cl

tllJ'ltlW"lCl'*:

PM:

~l<Cl'U.nClU(i;)t: .aeJJR'ljlU1jo;

LNX:

cJ'lnlJ~~ejI3ClnUU'llJlJ'lalJ;

NX:

llJlJ~~e~

Ui.Jt:

UOOlJi)~a';·VL'(20aaJ.m.'1'U'l':l'

30

C:\WINDOWS\Desktop\Draft_7.doc

12101102

O;CJ1JOJ~C'J ttW) cto:J~n'l1J(~~'~) 6.3: ri.ulC'Jt:lttflJr3ifi'tGlJ~lia~uwa:tJ'InelJ

~~UJ)e'lUl'llJ!:!e)~.u~~~tJ Ulo:J'I(Jn;)'1u:U

U~lJ ,fht1'1lJ

(m, 2 Ul~ 3 ri.u)

31

C:\WINDOWS\Desktop\Draft_7.doc

l2/01l02

32

C:\WINDO~S\Desktop\Draft

_7.doc

12}01/02

~'1n~.lJlJt1lGt:uC)'}!;h,(m'}fllJ tlJ:!2eUt:!2Clmj !2e'}"ciQt:~JJ 2 U'llJ lJen~lJ,

~'1JJ"1c)l3l:1uC)'}~tiitmlJdhrlOl'lJJW'1T1ID'1EJ!<Sjl:)l:IuJje'lIIl"l)J V'}:iQ'I:IUClj11ii,U1lJtii'}~lJt:mo:J~'}tlJn'llJ~mn"l tlb"'ulJci"l

ti"nW'l1OJ

UQI:I t~'1tii'}Ell:luJ~e'lIl1'llJ "ci11'llJ

W
6.1,

~lJdi'lti"ut"Jnci'ljnlJ ".ulJl:)'1JJ'Im~'1tii'}~r5 ."t11Jo:J'ICl

~r5nTl'llJn~;:kmeu(:!2m~eti3lJt1"t"Jnci'l'}r;lJ

~Cl!l1'1il"UJ,e'lm'llJ {t"J"lt"JI:IQ'I'}

6.1

tii'}

6.4)

t~'1Qo:JJJ".sOltlJn'llJt~'1c\i'EI"uJ'}e'lm'llJtt.ulJ~n!2eUcj,!m~nCl

vncglJttcit:ict!lJn~JJI:I~Cl:!2e,z:io:J,jtJnillJtti'li1lJ. t"J'ICl"'iN'I'}QtlIi}TI'IlJiJct!lJ~JJlJffilJt\'1lJ~IiM'Cl,ttiitmlJctb~QlOJl:ltLlQ'1 'JTI'IlJClI:I!l]ElClU (Cl'lClI:I:::J'I'} 6.2) lJElnfilJ, .i:ilJv'}Z'I,u'lr:l "0011:1 tltltWCle'lm'llJ ~lJu:ciQI:I ~j~tt1lJ

Zl:IuCl,tUfUli1JriJOlT1UU'I'}t;;t:jJClEl'lUl'llJ

t1IJ'}u:citll:l'I!lCle"1!l1"llJt1lJ1jJJ'Iu~lwmffi'li3lJ

U;ciV'}il"lJJ"lCllJ~JJ'Itt!lJWm')'1($e~e'ltlU:Qm)JlJA~C5.

33

~~ n~§
5 " "

~ ~~~ ~ ~
0

"

.0

"

l
'" >§ "

eza

'!i

.. ~ ~ ,. '" i{~ .~~ 1~~{ .. .~ " "~


c

" ,6

e-

ii

,6

-s

"

~d~

xx

&
x
x

~ >'5.
=

0
§

"i I

'"

;:

it
;J;

~
,~
i<
(

,.
,~
N

" ~ ~~ ~
5

:1 e

.g

~ ~ e ~ "'
Q U

:t ~

~
" "

r,~

~I " ~
0;

a ".

1"

".
~ " '"

E~

)8

• ~ )1

,~ "

~,6

-0

ii .s

o ~ ~ ", " 5 -~. " C ,6 ,6 ,6 ,6 s ,5 '§

~[

~ ;:

'" "

'"

~~

'"

..
'" ~
G

'!i

-s ~~
[

e-

I ~1 a~
'!i

,~
x x

~ '" .: ~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~~ s ~ ~ .; ~ ~ ~ ,~ ,g ·1 i ,~ t ~ 5
'5 '5 E

-s

t~.

x x

x x

l- I- ll- I- lx x x x

,)

f- f- ff- f- ff- - -

I- -

f- - -

Af---'

....
~
L..c

:>:

- f-

H\
)

I'

I'=- ,_: """""


f- l---c

:'
E <;>

~ ~ ~ ~ (5 "
Q

f- i"- f-

T'Y

l- I- l-

"'

,2 ;§

-cr

::

'"

2' ~~

§. ,5

I
N

--;., ;J

, ,.

l::

i'l

~ ~

~~

; [
:El

"

1 '"
:g

, .~.
,~

s " ,t

,g

Oi'

-0'

, -, ~ s

".

'"

:£l

::; i'l g:

Ii;

;;;

iOj

::l

!
-

.~ .
e..;

~~. ,~ '" '" .' .' .' ,s ~ ,~,~-s i -s { 1 { i ~~. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~. ~ .' .'
G G G G

..

t~.

-"'-f-B'-I---

'" '"

x ~I---I---

V
12

x f.=-f----,

R i-C
:;, ii'

b,-

"
:.
" 'c'

-I---

-P=
-f----,

---

c~
~I

g..;
',?! ";,,,'

---I"'"

r-

r-:
fl-

~ e 8
§. 2

"

,
"
(j

:I:",f ,:,,1"
1'< 1/ Ie;
i

I,',

C\,'

I" '"I':
.~

r-Ff--cl---

1 ,S -~
~

-I!~

'5

~~

'i
ill

l~

6'

" ~ !l s' !

;~
f.l ,r 1-"--1"'-

"

:'l

;; ;

~ ':i ~ '!i

'"

"~g ~ ~ iil ~~

1i'

t~.

~g
a· x

G
g~.

4~. 4~.

~ -s ,~,3 ~ ~. ~ ~. ,~,~ ,~ ;\; ~~. e-

" ,. »"
G lUI -0

~ ~}.
h

f:

~
'"
')~

..

.~ "
G G

1.5- ~ .§
~ )?-, ~~

,~-§'~
('\j

,l
G c " "

)~

~,
I,
". ;,E

~a ~ .. " ~~r E .§ ~ cf .~ '" "~ )5 ce-"'~


.s ~ ~
" -[ •

~~ -~ ~
c~
G c~

i ~ ~"5' ~~
~ ·t§

~~ ~ ~ ~~~ ~;1 ~ P"s


QI

-es ,..,

s '~

'~! " ",


~. e~

~::<
;:!

;<

;:! .-

~-f~

)~

~-:!"'~ " "


~ ')ii!
I:S

~~~ ~~~ ~
~ ts ;;;: .. " w ~ w

~.~

e-

"
:' " ~
o

,:

.g

,
1':'

"~ " '~"'~ I ~.s


0;: )j

c~_;~ c~ ~ h "" !§ ~ ~ ~~ f: ~ C' 5' u:i " ,~ ~ <5 -~ ~ c~ g


o
" " G '5 c I§ ~ ~

s t :i'c~ ~ ~~ "
a
c

~j

-u;;

')~

i e " "
Cl (;

I'r'
!


,~)~

~~ ~i~ i'-~
a
... 'Il;a

~...5 ~~ "QJ-tw ~ ~ ~~ ~g § ~ Ilg g' c§


5 "'~

'G

1oI~

"

eo-

~ ,§

,~ :;:

.~
:;;

,.~.~~ ~ '§# s ~
~ c~
....

1\

s i ~ ."
-~

.~

~ ~

ii

~ ,5

-~r

"
1;!

-~

~
::l

;~ ~~
5 cllil

S;-~

;:<

)~

.",

;;

"'

:g :g

:g ill

~W

,il

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft

_7.doc

12/01102

'Y')tlu~,,!28,n"l1J~m:l"l

n'l1JuSh.un

llluuJje"lm"l1JR8j~"I;)U"l1J ~u~~Qd~"I nJ<:Inu n"l1JwmulJ

;)Utllci"lj~UUJ'B'l!1l"llJ ((:Nt:fiI!2Uw'lul1J((lJ;)!2Bjunlwlllu1J"ln"llJ ((ci~u3'i1"1t:n"l1JiJ~lwnllluuJjB'ltll"l1J !2BjE:"I;)il"llJttlt1J~m:lt:1Jt:!2BjUu15J.J"11Jn"l1J~CJln"l tlJutllJUf];)"lJJ((C'lnci'lj:Nt:Ulci"ljilB'~JJ~1J6t uae ((C'lmi"ljn1J ,ilJeilt:((C1,ttii,ffi1Jt\bJ;/lJlii"l !2ejilt:uJ'B"I!1l"llJ6tUl"lJJ"l~OCl"lJJUI~JJt:~"lO. llJtQvt:BlJRBjn"llJi;nlll"l (('ulJV"lnUJU!1lJUlil<:l"lJJ((Clnci"lj :Nt:Ul;)'lj~JJ'tl"llJt:,~o't\t:fiCl !28j((ci:Nt:V"llJ (wJ,,,citntJt!5ut,,aem61'li3lJ) 1:It:i3lJ,~,

";)t: uJtJtIlJU;)t:Il'1;)'ljil"lm~u"llJ. "ciiJ8lJ'~JJlJ.lh~lJ;)m'lno ~:~~~~~~~~.vt!5, 'W'lt:.tllJ~iI"lJJ'lmtllJB;)"U1lJRa'~JJ'O.

~ji3lJ, ~,ti11JJJ"I(tllJn"llJtlJuUlJtJQt:tIlci'lj w;)nlls'l,r;e,t~ Cl'llJ~JJ'q"l

n"llJ(ntJn~~J;/lJlIl"l,o'l1Jn'llJuQlwnt'.lO:ltJJjB'lIl'1'l1J:Il:B'tlt:~'l~1Jti1j~Bjil"llJ lJt:tIllCl'llt:nfJ!~e,,,ciQuu"l1J lovu"l1J (tl1J~;i}C1tm t,t6"tljsamtllJ

3 ~J..I'll'l1JuuC'lnci"l,n1J3 ~.u'll"l ~ilJ;)1J U;)U

1Jt:~,j}, u'llJn"l, ((:Nt:R"lCHRlJ,w'lvl6n"l1JiSjmfJ

((,,"t:lmt£'lt~'ln~;)lJi;).utlJn"llJiJlJmn

UUQJ.J'llJ!2Bj;)'lVl1'11Je'1m'11J~(£'l(~'l iJ151wn uci:;;)t:rI"lutt"l t~ CJ'lC'lt:Q"Ij.l1Jj~"lntilJ,'5IlluiQuiJ1JfJ'li! JJlJti1jmJfJ(ilJsm'Jn'11JBm'lu . n'11JiJSlwn ilt:tJJjB"lUl"llJ !2ej!;"I;)u'llJ. ",UlJt6i1u"C1jt1J (C'l"lC'lUQ"lj tlJtilJ. llla~tlu(wfJ 6.3) WnRe'lllutJJjB'1!1l"llJt!5lJ~.u'13"l"lU ((.ulJtm UQUuu(wfJ1IJCllJ ik'to~"lntlu'wfJ U'l, glJ (mu glJ:J,"ci

t~'1 (J:QU VlJfJ'1B"ltIl'lllfl1'1fJUa,~t!5lJ~JJ"l3m"lt: iiB1JtUlfJC1Jtln'l;)JJ"ll!'1,tiiijtilJ. lJsnfi1J~iiBlJci"l"l'l ll;)lJ(l'rBtllJ"I!2e,,,ciQu~.u'tl"llJun-r1;)"I.u"CJnci'1,nlJ. tnudli'BjU'1RBj(JjJ.J"I((Ql1UJlJllluUJ,S'1Ul"llJ. (W"lutJ'1jE1eU51;)~jJ(l'retlUl~l1"1lJt1t:SfJB"ltllll1"1lJ

010

uu(wfJliim'h ,fiSjU'12B,(J, !llJ"l11t:1'1;) 1

Ul;)UlIOlV

Q"I(1'1i1l:1t;o.iv{nu) U2001 U2002

i11Q

3.000 2.000 UlJRJJ1J 200 UlJRJJlJ UlJRJJ1l U.uRJ;/l..I U1JRo\J1J

3.000 2.500 500 200 13.000 1.000 3.000 2-31Jl;))J

1mQ t:1Bj~' t:1ejn;)v mJ'lntWUj t1lJ~lJ,tIlOl'1V ViI"I

as to
1 (WlJU 1 fit;) 2t1BO 1mQ 1mQ

fu<
trut1.. SClnd.hl~
tuMntOO

14.000

1mQ

5.000

8.000

38

C;\Users\IDRC\Group

l\Report\Draft _7.doc

12/0\/02

10 11 12

I tw"lTl;JO I nOltJ I1JOllJ~Oll1m~ V,

lmJOltJ 1mB" 12 in ..

2:000 500 u.u!2.IJll

3.000 500 40.000

~n ~n

....
tI"I~"ITllJll~e~ tI'l~n, tI"lEI

13 14

I"' I"'

1m .. 1m ..

tJj}~o\IlJ 8.000

7.000 15.000

!JlJ'ltJCV1Cl:::::I'lIil"li) ,,~ .. 20021Jl1'llJUJlJa:u~t!:)'ltJ~elJW'lmUlOalJt~lJ:il<J"lJJ6®~Tl"l)Jee,tiie,c:lt' 2001 ID'lO Q;QI:< U:S'CllJ~"ITlW'ltJlJen (BOC"J'lTl"llJu~nuJlJ.uTl"llJUJlJl1t1''i:;) ~~lJ;)lJCJTl61~'lOlihl,ltnum'l'i:ouJ.ilJ~mJ"lC1:.:1l:<t~tJ'i:Ci Bmu1J 15 m~tJ(1eu~;)!m~U"l1J U~I:< lwlJlJ1e,

t, BmtllJ
a:iOIt:1

~~lJOlJ t3lJ 44,673 i1u, BmulJ 8,5 tnQ

Re,u"lmB'lt\<JlJ ~,BmtllJ~~lJ<JlJ\3lJ

25,967 flu. tlJ£lJ 3,000 flu

UJ.lJJ\UlJ~~lJLllJ1<ll:<l~tJ!!ejUlJO'l"''lIil"l~t:liiot1ntlJ£'t12Cl~~ri"l;) uci~~

llvlH311~~ri'10)~"I<lU"lll~'i:O~"ItJ, iielJ~"I<lU'111m"l'i:Citfl' (c:l'lC"JI:<IOI"1j ;:lOlJ~~~u!J1'loly81Jo:J.lll~'l 6.3) JJ'loi6jtnO aiOl'lil'l~jjJ:Ul"lolyalJIDTl12ejilajU"llll1J.llJ'i:CiJJ'l~"InW"ltJl1~b lCltJ~l:<tw'll:<u.ulJl:Ci~"In ~U'l UQI:< t1J:J lmmt:lt~tJ

tI'l, flu, !!J()' u1J()'liln, i:im~elil'llJ, !!e,u'llJlwlJ!J1a, 126'U'llJtti'l~'llJ

uiin

amtllJ~~lJOlJ

13 ntQ/lClBll

~jo:l'lJ.J"loi1()'i:.3IUm~lJ;)lJ'3lJl:Ci 231,873 nu l<:ajv'llJ1wlJlIle,

"~I:< 12 fnw/lul:llJ

~':J'l.u'lCll1mUlJ"I~lJOlm'3lJ 218,400 nu. ·':llJ;)lJti"lJ11J.J')\llJL1.ulJ 18,000 iiu/iihl tlJfilJ, U'llJ~"IOlwJ'l1ci~~"Intiie'c:l~W"loJ.J'lU 36,000 nU/IClelJ, lJenillJl1l.ilJ'i:t'iLJ"I~"ITl

lmJill:«~tJ"i'1TlOJ'lIil"lBOl~jtlJUi6'c:lI:<ID'l()tlJ2"!!O~,ri"l;), ;ilwn lCltJilll:<t~tJwJ'"ci 2 nha ItjBmtlm~lJnlJI3lJwJ~uci

trllJJ.Jll~'lO

Q"nf;llllJt:lOJI:<UUl1'llJOt:lQ()!!e,f;le,U"llJuJ.ilJfl'lE.le11'bJrlutielJglJ:J!!ejtlI:<IUlCl t,mim<ll:<lJl:<votl n"llJOl>Q0Uuu~.unlJ, 111El'ln"llH30l:i QiQt< t30lJ"lIUlJBlJ6 n~JJI:<~o ~;)lJtmvtlJTl'llJGll>SOtl:.ulJtulJn'l J.Jl>i;o~o)lJ!.JniilJ,tl:ci~ti,lJu"I'lileur;O)61Mj i:iCl,m'ltl'l
tI:"'tl

trludiejv"I!!6jB,t@-ecthJQ"lE.l3U

W 1J,~eti"lIl~n"llJaI:<Sotl:ci~lIJJ~w "i~IulJt1a~Ejol1tfl'ln"l1JQ"I B1J61otJill:<lllJ"lt<uJ.ilJtlJtQE.ll>12"lOtl:£llJe"llll'llJ tlJ W


tMj1JutmlJ[l;)"IJ.JviliJil,tn"ljt'i'l1Jilt<uJ)a'ltr1"1)J~o (lomjeE.lt!:)'ltlno::i"lrJtmv)

't:;;)tJl:<tiBlJGlI:<~()l1nQunoll~"In'i:wUl~J.Jt<~"Im~lJ.:lJ1j"finJ.J, 1JlJaI:<SoBnr:l~,6m;;)WoUl'lIN'lE.l. i 1JflTlillJ UlJ !l1"1t~e'Qi5~~"IlJQiQtIn'lLJd:ioti8lJ~'tllJaTlulJm~ntj

s~1lIJ"ll:<o::i'l,u'ljli"leuilaIh~lJLllJWlJID'ltJ:ciQi:S,j'llJB1l6tlklI.iiiatJ u
iiO)!tiCllJl1ci~I~'1tjt301mull()'l£l6Uf1;)tS'l;] tmt~"I1~'llJ:;;)"ItJ3u~"Inn"llJ!!"ItJtt;eju'l!!e,B,

W u'ljlileu

1Jlilo)"IJ.Jm~jtJ"lnllJn'llJ'~'ltttjiltlUJje'lm"llJ QiQl> a)Jo"Qo~~LJnlJ.

CUlJWlm!5()

I~,a.ulJo::i"lila'U'llJ~jr\"IO)'i:od"llJTl"IlJ.ueu5lJ-J.Jeuv"laQo tl:citi,lJu"I,EleuiloVj!!'lmi1"eti"tilte tr1~n'l)Jl'Jtl~(),tlJillJ .nu'l'fleuilnj}d1a6iuci~iI'lJ.J'lClUl~n'llJOl>~o'i:Ci. iielJ,;jetiil,ri"lo)~WI.l"ll>i:iJJ e'lClbilJ:selJtlln"l1J~u~"Io). ootllm(Jful~,ri"lLi I1QI:<

~,"tlmmotm~"I;)u'llJmlJLJ"la~t~n'llJ~antr1"1e'lm'llJ~"In totJffiO)'i:tlU.sLltl:J.llJ~"i~notlI:<IlIJm;je

tr1'lJ.Jt:I~"Imtlu~lJ6. ~u"uun"llJ~anm'l~l:<uJ,e"lm"llJtil'i3e,u"llJ

39

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

l\Rep0r1\Draft_7.doc

12/01102

tt "0;)1:< "~JJI:<ZCl6:::1I:<JJ'IillltJJ'I£JtlJU'llJ. fi,nlJ~'IJJ ttcnu~o 100 flu/inQ fllJ). uciij'ld'iu tilteE!'I£Jti1lJ~)Jii'l

~'nuu'llJglJ

6e~~o<l'ltJe\'IUI~lJJ.1JtmU'llJt1'lJJ"'i~1JLllJ

(Ei'lUl'llJJ.1J5~rl'lLl".uW'MW'l1:<6nu!J"iilJ1ficnuc3e~~'IEe,a,cilte"'llJvSlwm~'I m'l'U'llJ~l:<ti1lJ~21'liJCl t"J'I.1Jtll:<~JJ'IlJ UQI:<UOQl:<tll:<tWClt1dlU.1J'I~O 150 flu/mow) ~LllJt!I'ItJ 200 flufii1Q,ij'lct:1lJ~l>iiClO;)'IrJ'lt1~,,:i'ltll:<.1J'llJ ~~u.ulJE1eui)Ll1fi.utj'llJl:<B"

(~l:<iJOO;)'If1'1ttW' nd'iUe\'lUl~lJJJJ~'21:i'l 0'Cl'lJJ"'llJ~,moEo~, ".ulJ~CiJJ'l€j'~lJtj'llJalJlJ'IlJttQO

"QI:< i:I'lW'ICl!\'lOV'IlJ,

ilf)tJilo1fi.ud~1e1fiUllm'llJI'Jt:SClWJ'W

~~la'l.LJ'ICl~U"'ie~(:t61fim'J21'1lJt1'I:<QCl'O tW'Il:<eJ'IlJ~.uL;lJWJ,WtlJ21'1tl<l'l'-IIi1'1tJJ'I~1fi

a"tll:<21'1lJvt'!\'lo)U'llJce,iJ~£.I'121'iu<le'Ce'lt~e1fit!l'ltJtnlJ~LI BlJ. li"Io"l.1J"mlci'l,m'l~''i'llJL~eti~l:lJl·llJ[Jtli3m;!ejfleuil;) i'ilJ t~lJ:ElO'l.uttlll'lI:<i3JJtlJ21'llJtJt:<QCl~i'itt~blJ~, mlJ\lIi1B,1fiB"lJ .I.J'lClUl'ln'llJt1'I:IQCl~Ci iJ6lJE!'ICllJll g;J.llJ[joitilJlotJiW'iUll'l1J~U~ej!i'tlJt1 riio)tJlJf)~,ri'lLlJJ'lriOlJ ~M'llJ

~tJ~e~lieiJ

";0)1:<

~iJ tu.llJ~ElJil'ljuC'lnci'l'
(n'llJ~u~e,

ttQI:< t~'ltlb~oClI:<t!leClQI:<~,m'llJ.

tiltem'ln'llJt1'I:<QCl) lJ·flfjci'lttJlJuot....WntlJn'llJt1'I:<QCl e,Cl'l.I.J21'llJiS,mCl t,Jjm:JI:<"Cljee21~t!elJ:i'l

IW'ltlU'ljilBui)o.uc:Cetl

uci~ti:I'l

UQI:< i:Ieutj'l.I.Jlm1J~Ci:i'ln~.l.Jl:lzCl'tlJ21'1lJlJ~t~1Jfl ii'lrJeur;otitn~"'l)Jt1'I:<QCll"iElJ~6lJl]t~

lCltJ21"llJ~,mlJolJtthJ!J'lv

";5of"leuilLlglJiJlli3CltlJ21'llJlJl]'tfieJ'ltJlJfl~,,i'I;)~6g-J1.

ilLl'lJJ!llJ1Jiljm'l,6'llJIIl:<uJ,e'ltn'llJ uJ,e'ltn'llJ ".ulJjJ~LllJWLlf1ilJlJl]W'ltJt!Clh'~lJ: "I'lnll'llJ~21I1'l llle,illJ,6"l$ttcmci'l,nlJ e'ltn'lJJ~5 CmlJci'lflLl'lJJ"C"mci"l, "civ:;:uttuu'tlJn'llJlii'ldb .l.JI:<ZO "QI:< eI:<W~o't)J21'1m~'lClbilI:<UJ,e'lm"l)J.

".ulJ.uE1L1'l.lJIIl]i'ilJ6nu~'121'llJttllJ~Re,UI:<!\'lilV z:lnti:ll:<lJl:<f)'ltn'l1J1filJ'JJJ'IuSlwn,

g;ciall:l n'J "QI:<

"ID,IlI:<UJ,B'I!1I'IlJ,

""I:<m:i'l, tWO'LI,tlJ21'llJ'iClUl'le'ltn'llJE!e,IllB,U'llJ "QI:I ::;otn"le'l!1l'llJ€i'ltJE1J~n1J(~lJ: ~,1:ilJRltltto~eemJe1J:i'l

lWClEijtt.ulJ"il<jJ ttJJCJtj,RI'lJ.J"lmntl

ilLl'l.uW'l21W'ltJ tlJll'lJJ'imn'li3l:<uJ,B'Itn'llJW'I£Jll:i'ltWCJ!\'ltJ ~'II'l.I.J'lCl::;mt!lJ lJem'l2121"llJi311Ill'li1,f1, OOOU'lO tlJn'lJJill:<tnJe,e'lUl'llJ

9 !llJLl03'ltn'llJ "cittuCl!\'ltJruJ,ttci'io!1l'l~5

6 !llJLloe'ltll'lmffi'lfilJ.

V'~'l.lJ'lClRl~"o,tti'ilmlJ,tb,ElLl'l.I.JII'Ji'iJJE!e,~uwl:<tJ~nelJUI~JJI:<~'lCl ttell:< lO'ItJw':I!UlJQl:<tIl::l'l,iiJJnuUllJ.l.JI:<!\'lO 21'llJWLlWlJ ~~n'lLliJwJ'"ci.u

Iii

;;nilt::JJl:<vSlwmffi'lfilJ((ci1JJJv'lal:lttCl"ib((ID~""'l£JZU tlJn'llJiim~I'lriJLlnuUI:<Q.u'llJn'lJJu;;')hmeej!\'lOU'llJ !\'lO tlJn'llJlIl:ltnJe, UJUtllJtltUlJ~lJe\~tII~~5'lJJ'lItltj UI:<QJ.J'llJ,n'llJUS1W21 IOl:<uJ,e'ltn'lJJ eer il;)'lJ.JCie,n'llJlIl<uJ~e'lUl'lJJ61C1e1J,

\tQI:< n'llJCJI:IW'log21CiLltJ:::Il:<tW'Il:<wJ,ttcivt~tB"elJ "ciEl~m'l.u'lCltmlJ~5dbElLl'l.I.J~'111W'ItJR6~tII;JJI:< .. noellCi;)I!J. rJeuiiLl 6,aelJ, iI'I.LJ'ICllIl:lttCl,tmnnJJtl1, QI:<C'lu

"I'llJ;)lJQ'lI!J~'ltJ \tQI:<UI:<Q.u'lJJ IOI:<UJ,B'ltn'lJJ $~'l;)U'llJ::;Cltn'lt6tlJ ttell:<~'1ntiiB~CJI:<ID'lO~,ti:I'l

m~JJI:I~'lG. lJenfilJEl'Z'lJJ'lOtll:l,j}lJ~6aClCJ'I~lJciJ'"'i'l21B'Im'l1Jt)JtII'J.uI:l~'IO JJ'lmmlJ'cCi:i'l "'i;lJ;)JJe'lm'llJffi"~'ILlU'lJJ~JJ'lUQ1WllnLlJJte'lwJ'((ci

15% E!e~"i'llJLllJe'lV1'1lJliitn'l.lJ'l~6m~

li:1lJmV'flLl'lJ.Jtti1)Jii~tn'l,6'1lJ~l:IuJ,e'l!1l'llJ~'W;)WlJnu"'lJJ::;CJn'llJ~uWI:I£J'lnaJJm;J.JI:I~'IolotJ IlII:<CtIJ'lt::tt.ulJLlJn''llJJ.JeuCilJ-.uetith sno i:ieJJ.h~'lLlillJJJI:IDCl lJf)I/JjeuSltull ~LllJ1tn£i tt.uJJe'l~m ~uwl:<tJ'lnelJtrl;.l.J1:< lO£Jml:<ttIJ'lI:l~'l21~'ltlJ21'lJJ~enm'1e'lm'lJJ, ((QI:I ~ul:<ltJJn, c:CetffilJc$en'llJ'J21t1,

40

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01102

a:QI:l:iiJ~jij(')~~l1Jfillv~tlnlmtmllt\bQm:lI:l1Jl:lifiii"lEmn1J

a:;J1:l a:C'lmh~2e~iI"'UJ~e"lm'l1l a:QI:l~UWI:l ~

E.J"lnellm~JJI:l~'lm~ll: n"l1J;j:l"'tnJe~em", l1"111uiijlwn. lJentrlJ, ~!Jwl:ltJ"lne1Jm~JJtlt;"I(,)a:QI:lElOJ"llJc13lJ il~Ul"l~cl'llJgjI:lUJ~e"lm"llJv~j}n"l1JiiJowlJl1J~nill:l1J1:l2e,~mJi a:Qt< ~!Ja:U!J2e:J11'I1Jfj(le:J~urut<tJ"lne1J m~lJt<~"I(')enclOI!J. t1Jn"l1Jillm:l'12e, Dembner.199511i~clV1~n"l)J~nil"l~tJl;:(UlClC'l'llJ:lIt«lJtJ, I/tltlnClhn af,ll< tJl<

WI(JO)JClll"lJJ 'tC1tmEl~(mlJ(~1JC)JO)Ti1J;)"I ~ i::uwt:I!J"lne1Jtrl~lJt:t;"lC"ld:lmjS1JiOl:llJl)eja:ci:Je"lm"l1JwntUia:ri ~"lm·h1J. 1JenfilJ ~!Jwt<I!J"lns1Jmt,lJl:l~"lC)tttlJt\e1J2lt:UlJejQ"lE.J:Su tUi((riwOJnd2'1l1JiJQl!iJ1Iic1e~n'l1J

Q"lI!J'tC1t1J'tQl!Jl;:ifin"l1JCJI:lSC"liJ~6CJ"lJJQI:l'Jn"l1J. fijrilJR'llJc.i'l1JJJ"l fi'1(5"l(\ijillJuJ~e'1t11"l1J fi1JwJ,a:citUirlo"lJJ~1Jhti:l ((cin"llJC'l:l~m~"l tm~JJ nmt'lhti1J (~l:ltW"lI:lS1JQ'lo)~ Q;)JJ'ttJ(\i~~'1;)U'l1J~t,lJ;)1Jut~v,tmrl;)'lJJ(m1J(~1J,uotl1J. ctlJ"I~ti2"l(~'l~Cl ;)"1(~"lil'lJJ"lmmm.iJlJ (tQIJ ~2"lv'tcl''ll!Jn;)"li51Jii'1tJl:l(wc)§"1J:J.

41

C:\Users\lDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101102

rJ<JlJn'llJi1n:f)'u;;'l~tiil~iI'lJJ"lO~~~UC1Je3~)Jl'llJ1JiJt~i:XhJ!!3~ilB~U<J1J'rCi~~l1, (~iii~:f)e~thlJ) u:J.imttlJt!!mulJ~~ti:l1J:iO;)lJttntitw<J~:f)~BlJ tt:N~ 02 ~<JJ.JQiJClU. W;)nt€<J'iii1Jci<JiI~w<Juu<J'cii1.in"llJuJ1JtttJjV<J'WOl~W<J1!J 57,46% 16,42%. d1ettlJ<J

:f)~W<JUWlJtrl

nQ~ ilO1Jn.ulJjJe3utrw~'lno

t~

jj1JiI~ttO~eentw'CJl.Jtt01

"I<Jnll<JlJtttJw<Juf\"Il!Je"ln<J(), r\alJ"l~.un<JlJJ.JeUC1lJ-JJaUU<Jt~etttJ~'c.u"J.ilJ

~~a;)'Qll

,,:,;5~ 611J.J<JU 1998 W<JtJ~htt.un<J1JJJeUC1lJ-JJeU BOlt:o;,n!!ej(t8tl1J<Ji1Cl'c:;i(UlJtU'~1J"QO)".ulJ11;)J.J

U<J BM1J'lUU<JirlaUIllJ<J "J.ilJ~Cli.)j'IDeruJjttci t€hwJ,ttci 1,3% ,ffi-,BlJ (2001).

a<JlJl1"1lJiI'ltu<JCl

tl:Ql:

~~mCl,iJ~W<JUaOl~'~'lJ.J'I(Ja:N'lIil<J'cCici<J

t~Btt

'fW<J~iOJ.JtlJl1<J1J(!5(J1J'ltt.ulJ"IiJnCl

ucit1Jfi1J1Ju'Ij£leuilO)!t1.u{l18tl{fW<J~SJJ 1JenB1J,

a:cit1j~iiilJ'rCi~u~<Jo)lJ<J,~e,

E1B1J.lJlJI:\<Jt1Jn<JlJ~u~<JonlJlJli1<JlS~di1J'ctJ, "<JlJl'J~SCl. tUiti

1Ji)~'i:llJtt(Jt"lut~,6iS~£hJl1~61utUiun';:<JOlU<JlJttUl~ ttQ~ 1J~Ui;)tJ. tl1BifiUliJ"<JlJtn:<SCl,~;)lJ "<JlJO~~OOJ~'Jtt0'5jtt.ulJtm<JJJ<JClOI<SCl ~ (iI~UJJ<Jl<tJ<JlJlwlJlIla,). ~{E'J:i1.uwJ,u:citl1etl a:QI< '501.1'1. u:.ulJ1Jflo<JJJUC1nci'ljwi.1JJ

1Ji)ti1~t~<JtlJ"<JlJO~S(J,ii;)lJtUltiu:.ulJ'rCi~<J"lJi)D1J tt:N~ IllJB~lJ~ci'lj:J' O.JtJ'U1ClClJc1jri<J;)

tt.u1JQJuU:~"lJJUi;)tJ

'rO, VelJ!!<JClU:illJlJfi ,l1eti W'ltJ~}jt11J"<JlJ

Uo.l~ Uiom:i;)lJtUlti"J.hJti:l1JQm:l~lJ~Ui;)£.I!!<Jo. fijnlJ~<JJJnutJ<JlJ

titDll<Jl<iiJJtlJ"<J1JtlI<SCltt.ulJ~t1l<J"lJi),;:ej, JJaUOlJ-JJauu<J

t!!()~,r\<J;)a:.ulJ'cG~mtt1JtEou<J~1J"J,"ajthlJ. tlSmUlJiI;)lJ!J"U;, iI;)lJU;tUifW'l"

U<J~i:i;)lJu1i'lfilJ'cCi1J'lt~'~<Jt1Jl"l'llJO~SClt~lJ: "I<Jnn'l1J:;:]'lw<JCl,won{z'l'~'lhci'l eou ~tii.ut~attlll'ln<JlJOI<SC1:iO;)lJt!l1titt.ulJ

i;S"ill<lJ~n<JlJtlflajtiiB1J~ila'tJ"llJ

'i:l1J~JJ"lg'~lJf\'llJt1JmCl~,ri'l;)rialJifi"ltcj}n'llJ"tJntJ'llJ rialJifi"ltc.un<J1JJJBUC11J-

~~u:J.ilJm:.luE1oifi'coj}n'llJilu~<J;),i1atilijri'l;)rie1Jtl"ll<j}n<JlJJJauolJ-JJauu'l. JJeuu<J t1)U 1996, trl<Jje'llJ<JCln<J1JDn£lBj'cOu~, JJ'ltUlJn<JlJtltcQOUuu'iijtrl":" JJ0UOlJ-JJeuU'l nti,'20n'llJ('Jl:jQCl ~j'rM;tJwl<tlu tUittciQtcflBUil;)tlJUciQI<.tJ'llJ BnJJ'l:S0ClV 1997

tUim1JuJ1J"I<Jl1n<J1Jl'Jtc

Qm'UUt!5ohSt~BlJQetJ tJI<6uOlJo:leJu<JtJ

trl<Jj3'llJ<Jon<J1JDnfla~d:Jaj'cG llJfilJ, jJU'l~lilaUi1;)t:f)'l t.i:Jej'c!:lUl'lU,

":;)tc tJo:tWClU<Jmj:J,

JJ'lo,;:an(Catln'l1Jl'JtcBCl!!B~BlJ'cG, uEOl,n;UW'lJl<ilalJ;)J~~lJ

tl"ii'll'JItJ5j~1J~'!!CllhlJ!ri'l1J'l"l'ltJ'l, ~'lmJ'l1JlwlJUl0j.

(UlJ"I'llJ;)1J !:l'l.mci'lEl0l,JE1<l

(i1etiUl'ln'llJOO:~Clmj$la~tJ<JlJ ~jBmtllJ~'llJOlJ t1"l/£IBUE);) 0,78 t:;nO<J/r13uii;)

ij'lm<JlJtlh'llJ;)1Jfleuii;)!nj$lejtJ<J~tt.s;),ctil1Jci<J~BlJi<J~"I'l7'iCl E0jtJ<JlJlwlJUlBj 88,49% "QI< thlJ,~hthlJ "Q~ 88,36% Bmum'llJ::>lJ EB~tJ'llJ(a'lt\'llJ. 0,89

,3'"
'W<Jtc ~

:!3;)lJd3atiiu'lIiia'u1Jn;)JJ

EBjtJ<JlJlwlJlIla,

tlJ,iJBriBlJila~tJ'l1J~~ri'l;) 3otJ~"I'l51J. uci;;)~tJ'llJ EClaVj~,ri'l;), a:ciw<Jv~b

'cotiiiluwtctJ<Jl1BlJU<J'rii:5;)JJnlJ,

(@-en'llJ~Clm<JIl:I~UJ,a'lm<JlJt1J~

&lin<JlJJJaUOlJ-.lJBUlh

tEOU'lifi((1£Jt~:5;)JJnlJ,'cCil1'ltJJJ'l'ttlJ~RClU~'

~<J;)th1Jt~'l1"1ol<JiiClm~,ri<J::>".ulJ$l'lJJ"lm~<J'ftj'cowJ~uciilI<JJ'l~n2a,tJ'llJalJ,a"~'lfilJ. ~$l<JJJ'lCl In t1l£J'cGQ~U1ol<Jju'llJ6tJ<JlJ, ~1Jn'l£.lJJ<J'i:llJn'llJi5'l,~n'liJCl2a~uci:o;,~u<JlJ2B~ tl'~"l'ctJ,nuUI<J~UWtctJ"lnalJ/ill;luJ~a<Jm'l1J.

B1J~1J ,$ei:luttwt~11l1C1611nillJ

6ElBUE1;)tCl~t")'lJJ

~n~

42

C:\Users\lDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft _7 .doc

12/01/02

fi)0)'lJJ"Clnci'l~~"UI;)'l~n'llJlifi)e~ti'8lJ,nalJ~fi)0)'lJ.Jm:ilJil~!I1'l~6'llJ~l:'uJ~a'lm'llJ m:hJ ":NI:'tll:"UlJn'llJttfi)a~, tlJn~.,iJinil'l ~llwJjjJuUaEJ, n'llJ~JJti,iti'8lJ "~I:' n'llJ(~'l,ib~uwI:'EJ'lnelJ!Il~.lJI:'E:'lCl

iialJ;)'l:

tlJdia

"J.llJttClnci'ljnlJ,

ejC'l'lJJ~~llnlltl"E:'lnelJ£a,ili'ilajU'lll~1JciiaeJ, tll:E:'l~)JdlauvilCltj'llJjJd5Cl~:5!Jn(~'ltUlJm~l1.

ilI:'W'lU~llti?;jr1'lO)~e.alle.'lj~~~ll n'l)JlJ'Jti,iti'8llt@atn~n'llJtl't::QCln:~n'J

".ulJ(~Cl£aU(£Cltfiti'llJ

tH::.l1:' f;l'lJJ'lCl~U~a~ti'8lJ~6C'l'lJJt~'W'lt::ci'lE:i,~UilJ1Jn'llJ~()ltU~(£Clfi)n'lJ.J!SuaCl n'llJlJ~t~il.uwt:EJ'lna)J V'lj~n'RCl~~n()(UlJ~lJltJ.llJn'llJ)J~ti:lJ~,

E:aU~l:'mo)'l~ti'llJ~U'llJ, enO'llJvtj

U'l~.i5 ZOJJ.li'1lJ, 'llJ(~'l'ttitnudla~u'l£aja, n JJ'lClClau~t:!IlJa,~6C'l'lJJ;MJn'llJ. n'l)JDn~JJ£eju'l!l1~G5j,

(@a(ulJIf}'l!l1'l)J ":NI:' tU1Ji;1Ji'i'l ~1Jtn:N'lEJE:l:'ljCl ":NI:' iI'l tUi1Jd'l~I:'W'lu

~'lnn'llJ~JJli!~uwl:'eJ'lnBllttuu~1J~n~iJ()ruS~n'l;)

dlClnn'l)J6u!1lI:'VumJRBji.3ClU'lt~)J: ta-a,

S-j, i,i'lj,

fi);)'lEJU'l,.. m5£)lJ1j"~iJn .

Itm~, VlJCl'lWClQnItQI:' tl'I:'BClClI:'W)Jci'l':J,~'lntilfljU'l ~j)tlI:'SJJ'l1Jtn"i'Cl5" fi,nlJe.'lJJu'ljE:t::fjm~'lm'llJ ~~di)EJ.j}WCl.iJ alJRI:'U;)1Jn'llJtft:QClnl:i:ln~-thtu, V n'llJWClml:'lJ'l, a;Ql: ":SjCilJ~'lnlU'leJ1Jan (rnune 1t:N1:' :rI:'QClClt::WlJ c

m~'lCl). tlt:,V1J m~'lEJE:t::jJCla'ltJ1'llJtttll:'E:'l~lJ~01J~JJ'l~'lnualJ§-lJ ill,",uU"lJ;)W)J (~lJ: "r1)JQnn'lCl£'l;),

"nlJtIlJ'lnttTCl, c:lnmCl, 5n[j~, tw'lntQCl, ... enelJt;tjdjflf;lt:W'lUn'llJDn~JJ£f.)j ~dlCl1Jn'l1J~!!Ju'l mE Jl'l1JE:1:'

U'l~Cl~juO)nnUf;lt:W'lU~1Jtt t11Jfi);)'lJJ~j~lJ~";.');) ,neBnJJ'ltlJQt:\lDlJ e1'ljwjmI:'Q'leJ2ajCllJ, elJ(5t"ltmmJ'lCllJU'lj, ~lJlJt:w'luRajB1J~ClSj 6alJ2a,n'l1Jtl"QClndin~2a,tll:'E:'l~1J, t~1JillJ lClEJe'l't~m~JJllE:'lmtl1Jm~n,

tj.timt:~jalJi'l"malJt)J~QEJl:'eJ'l;)

iia1Jl2llUO))Jn'llJtlt:Q() ";It: ~lJClalJci'l'Jtmtlll1aClnlJ'.u'lmQ'leJ tnaiillllW'lU~1Jt1n1l'llJuJ1J"tlj, CllJa;mjnllO'l', U'ljUi5Cl\lWClQt<

u-o SjalJtUiaW:WQClBnCl~ m""'lEJfi)0ui1;)I2'lCl"fi)lJ~"UJ'B'lm'l)JmQ'leJtaatl'tlJvt,u. fi);)'lJJm:i1Ji1, n'ljO'l1J:::ll:'uJjB'lm'l1J tt;lll lJt«EJU'lU JJaUGlJ-JJBUU'l.lilaU()OJ!t1ndrat1n'ltlt1t<Qr,) t ~~nCl, tlJn'llJmn~'l~jjj V1~f;lBjU'llJ'to5Un'llJJJeUOlJ-JJBUU'lls,lIciD 1997 ttllJ~lJJJ'l, 'tojJn'llJ~Cli6lJ

ti'81J, ~ClttUjtJt:tWClU'laamtl)J!!J'leJtJt:ttuCl (@atmtlt:E:'l~lJ~JJilfl'

,,~t: lJ~'ti!Cl'lJ.JfimJlJ'leJ~j::l'ltll:'!<.'l tt:>lll'~JJUi), a-jci'l

~lJa;ci;lt:ilaU();)W'lEJ't1JilB'U'llJ IJilo)'lJJ,UlJt8nI:'W'l!.1l1lJtlJ11'l1JtlElfl,ti'8lJ (\iJJil0j (2'l'~'l'tllJ~aan~n~iJCl .a,.

tt:>lll fiCl;l"UJU t@en'llJ~.tJElflj ttQI:' )J~t~~uwt:EJ'lnBlJW'lEJtlJu'llJ()5t1B)J tn'l'tlJj::lEJ~'l1J.uaU~lJ-.l.Jauth~l:ItmlaTl'lCltlJmlJ~anm'lt1Cl)J tt

nQlljJfi)aui1;)t;-~.iKilJnl:'f;lt:n~

'mJ'llliJJ t!tetn~n'llJCJt<~()Cl'lJJfi);)'1JJiI'lJJ'lr,),ij'lIJIil,;)'lJJ$I'lJJ'l()~en 'to tt1'l,!JlJ::lEJj'llJJJfluo)J-JJauthiilJ dJej ~l:'ttl)JrJeflntun~.ut:~on'llJ~JJt~ "Q" 'J.u(j,a~tm, tJ1Q'~~jJn'llJuJlJa'lituCl'lJJQI:'\ln'l)Jii: Qt:Q

DlJ~m~n'l1Jat::QClnt:i:in~, Q"\l"Q~A~tlil'l12'leJ, rU~~j, tnUtRfljU'l12B,aj,~tJ12'lU, vnihv~tJ~uelJ~1J t;-jJ(1;)'lJJ'mJ'lllzJJ6n'llJCl~S,~Cl,

Itciu'ljn;lt<n~1Jn'11J

6BlJCll1d.rutn'ljO'llJ~t:W'luttlJt1Rejili'f;lBjU'llJ

(tllJ'!I~~' "t<tu'lU~lJWJ~t;-al~Qutrl~n'llJCJllQCljJm:iBEJ. l1'llJiinal'lllJiilJCl0lJil,tt.ulJiim<l'ltml'llJCJlJnl:'muI20jlJll'lEJU'lVJJflUG1J-JJBUU'l tm()IU'ltmdlr,).u~i':ir,)a;tijnlJ~lJ '~lJ ~er,)a;vj;lt::tnd'lj~JJ()lJ~~JJillJ l2alitRmJ'l)Jir'lj~""~' il'l,,~alJ~I2f;l"Cl;)ntm"n n'llJ~JJilB' t1(tllJ~'l

,,;Ill U'llJ~U'llJ. t.ilann'llJ~OttU,

tt:>lll lJ~t~, tu'leJtlJ"ciQ",u'llJ~nn'llJ~O JjlJ~ot!!'()tm tlt<I:.'l~lJtno "cim:llJ.iJiI'ltlm5EJtu'lvtlJU'llJ

ttUjtll:'(WClti'8lJ-tlt<CW()U'l, tlJ~Qut:BlJ,w'ltltn~,iil.un'llJJJauGlJ-.tJauU'l fi);)'lJ.J!5UZlJ II;'I:' l1'lmtllJUlJtn'l;lt<tnci'l,iiCltl(1ej tt;.)ll jjCl~JJtii. ~:

uTIjlll'leJ tll:'E:'l~)JV1j~ejti'llJt~eJ~tJJJ'ltl1'lnlJ:5;)JJnlJ,

~JJ'lj';l'lEJm5v6jr1'l;)~o.l.J~JJ()lJt1li'll'llJt:ail'ljtUlJ

43

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

l\Report\Draft

_7 .doc

12/01102

eJ<JEJCJlJlJll,rnen"llJt1't:SC1, :5J,tJ"I.~C1~J.J51e, ~""t: ~J.Jt~n'l<Jd:1lJ!;;e'~;)lJtJnlillJ t,~glJ,)~'lJ.J'lm~"I~tJ ~J.Jt~hl :;J;).I.J!i'ijll~tlJm5<J~jn'l;), UelJ.l'ltR"lt~"ItUlJ~Sjil\lJih~r.J"ltJ~ciwJ~~GJ;)' enulJm"l vt,tlln"llJ tJt:';:"I~lJVl~

t~"It?tji;uwl>tJ"lnelJlIl~J.Jt:';:'lO Qt:moJ"ljil'llJ6i.i"llJ '~lJ: n'llJtnudleju"ll!e~a~tlJdJenelJ

~a,u<JlJ ~:;Jt: UlJO"lU"llJeeJ.Jf2'lj UJ.j,J~"IJ.J"lm~"I'ttJlnv't61otJDn~m;)jUi"lJ.Jto:J, uciw'l£JmQ,tlnn"llJ "U'j12o~u8o,;:au"i5;) nQt:lJifiihlJgll~t:'R"I'ttJ~J.Jt~u.ulJt;e'j~6I2e'l1J()<JOll~'~"IU'llJnelJ. n""I>nifin-

Tl"llJi:5nQau ~~t:1Jn"llJi:1lJt!llJt~ll1lml"lJ.Jni:)t:n mS-~fi"n"llJliSmo'leuiSJ.J. ~: iil,~e,u"llJ l.tienelJ".ulJ't6m'lJ.J'lm"lnlJ3dJ.Jnm"t:md"l,tJt:~'l~lJ2ejri'ij~ejU'llJ.

1!I<J()lJi)~Bjbi'cmQd"JlJ aciw'lEJmi:5, bi'c6.u UQt: lJ~ u.ulJi:l"l

Tl'llJJ.JaUCllJ-J.JaUU'l ciQt:U'llJ'te;~o"ujtl!milietulJo'l!It:m';)lJ2e,tt1Q"lo,~"I()lJfJ "

J.J"lQlJ'lti:tiliatn~n<JlJt1t:SQ (tQt: lilJatt1lJl~lJm'l,IilJ.JJ.Jt:lJ'lEiJ.JIIl'l'lJi)3d.unlJ~Ci,Itci~Q~J.J51e~ltt~m"llJ eeenou 1t;;)I> n'llJm"ltJ"l"JJlJ~lJnVU'l·lJIUlJl~"l2e,.

g,Cl'lJ.JRoder (1997) 'tCi,g'ld'l~'l;)nt:i3nelJifit]"ljU"lI:;Q~3, ~'~QtlJI2miu\'l,~nl!lenIDn,

o;,1;)lJW"l(J".ulJ~lJla·1~olJ0ellifio~

2'lQd~lJm'ljEiJ.JJ.Jt:lJ"lEiJ.JI~"It?tj "iNt: 2'lrJn"llJBrJ6woWWIl'ljCi'llJn"lll ~erJ"ti'Ul"l,6'llJn"llJtt(]ajn'llJlJ'lt~t:mlJ UQt: ~nl!ll> l:"Ionl;!ilnelJ~'

t1t:W'lrJ. n"llJlJ~t~tlmlJ~jn'loa.ulJtlJt2rJifij}

lJt:()lJ".ulJ()lJifi,)~BJ.JiiiJJ!JlJ.lJani1lJ Roder (1997) Ei,~CitJiifi.ugnd"l.ull~"tJnmEi,t; ';'l;)tt1lJ~m~Q'l£Ju"lt0, t3QtUiBlJt~eJJ\llJlJt:ru"lU. ~ilt:tW'lt:lltcit~"Ii1lJ,

UlJCl'l~rJt]t:V"llJ Ee'W"ltJut:

tmo,tlJRjt!!Oe"l~t"I"1l;)lJeamiIJ~tL1 u,tzii(]'ltri'ilJtUlJalJrJJonlJ;)'l,

l!I'ltm02aj:n'llJ~lJ'iI£J~Vtl!I>I!J'lnelJ tlJt2Q~lJlJl<DrJ (Myer, 1993;

z)'l~JJ"J.ilJlfiQJJ"I~'lnn'llJlJ1~IOI"1I!JU'l'r:.u lotJTl"lutj"lju"lt:lohltt!Jv!:lt:!;"ItJ

Rambo, 1996). njnlJe'lJJ n"llJfjn~"I~tJl<11J100JOlJ"lJJ, 'r:Ci~t:lItOjtti1tmlJO"l~wJ,,,r:\~lJdj'l~;)lJiJe()tt1i'1 filJifil\'l,U'ltz(]hs ttQt: Ul~l1"1lJt11>Q(]tllt2mj}lJ!i]' (Rambo, 1995). 8lJeejn'llJi;mo'l~,i1, ,,6~lJta"li1;)lJiiB£J, It.ulJtmlJ'' ~,Ei'1OI0.I.J'r:tJ

1I'lIl'l~tiiilJ~~';"I;)IW'lt:l~JJ~lJifio'lSj~(]tlJI2(]~lJE'l5'l".ulJ,)i3~(W'lt: t'h~lJta"lIOl'lo~J.Jen6;)(). trt]"l,u"lt30~i

ai:)t: m'lI1'llJt1~Q(]tlJ'20tnlJlI}~.

eilij~8lJ'lnlJ"QOO'l l1'llJtljej,

o:JJn~'llJJJeVCllJ-JJeUU"I tt1lJ;)Jnj"llJtroon~I>lJl<noJJQOJJ til, ti:1lJoJn,'llJ 5,filJ

(i3(]l\t:fi(]-~,IilJJ, 501J1t:lJ~lJ1~ ItlOlt:l ttllwlJlJ1~2a'jtW(]tQnlillJ IUlJoJnj"llJifinO"ljR;)"Ij. I

jjlJ~~3Jnge~tmut:netJBl;)lllJ~nlJtlJW'lI!JJCi'llJ~~"Im'l~6"111n'llJ(.uBj"lJ;)()C1, n"llJl3lJ "Qt:

OOIJ1t:lJ'lIJ1~,n"llJii'l, UBlJO'l

~~~lJ';O"l~".ulJlJ1"1,6"1lJ32.'ln"llJt!5(]ltlJot(]tm~ao(]e~ntJttr:\i;,I>12(]a2;)~

;)inj"ll1~jn"l;)ti:1lJ;)Jn~"IlJtmi(];)lJnn'llJt]e(]l\elJD(]:;JlJnultr:\Ql<Uie'~lJ, tweiB"I,tti1tUlJtROfiottutJ2e,tJt:tlJ1o. 8 U'lml'lO(W'l~O'l~OllW"ll!Ju"loii"loiil7 tJ'lOii'l;)2S~n'llJi'jt~.u tllI'lEJ~~lJee'ttr.nJn'llJ

(];)lJfi"n'l11ItU,t2mOl<tW"ll<

weJJnlJi1lJ,~L1ejWI>()'lI!J"lJJ~n~tm.un'llJ~o~~tJt:tiuotti1Ei!JCl'l.I.J UQt: 8 tttlJv"loii'l;)CJoiOlJalJl!I~'Qo2e'lJt:llt1u'ltl5,ri'l;) loti

ttlOll<n'llJn;)On'ltioCl'l.I.J. ~;)lJmOl"lEJn"llJ'io~,tJt:tiU(],ti:1lJ~tJt'l'lJJfi;)tiNni1"1o Itr:\R"lolJ1'lj6"1lJ~lJlJt:<w'lutlJ,,6Ql<~lJClelJItQI;! nuu"t11JtlJn"llJ~o~,ut:oti(] 51;)'lJJi:lUiiJlJ"OlI> t]"l.lJ'i1,erutJl<ltllJQtttf2"lI~"I'r:63u lotlli'll<

t~otUi~(]n'llJIUlJ~Rejut:!:l"l~lJtfiC1n tW'lt:la.ulJmmri'l,~mmnWn.

w"ll!J~h1Jn'llJ.l.Jav8lJ-JJauu'l alJt11>Qonl<i5n'ltlJu'l'~lJtt'@-JJ~lJ nci,;:en

44

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12101102

C'lVlll'lCl"¥t,mJ'It0.u 1Jl'l~()'IlJQ'IIi'l'l

(~l'W'ltJQ;)JJ~LlU"WIc)

:;:JUt1 Q'ILlhjBlJ~.uCC:s~otl'i'lnW'IEltlB"

i5Cl~~'1JJ'IC)Z:tJUl'1ilJ

CCQt<"'1lJl;1t<!!)'1Cl. ~t<W'ItJlJJlit1t<'mClm~1':Ie~U'l1J 'UlJU2C)ty~n, ~lJtiWJ,dtB"'1lJ"t<~"~ tinJ;)eB'JUi~w'IEltlJ lJBmUUB'i'lnn'llJ!J" "'1t1~~t~JJ"'1lJlJnHltiliBd:1lJiOlJ[i'l CCQtj

1ClEl~t<IW'It<tlJnQt<~"~'1 ~IJijBEI.

v\'1.cc:s~m'l'J~'1lJ~'1lJl'J:S~~~~~lJ~~5tJn'l~"t<

... ;JJ1~n~'i~~;)tJ~'1t1 c

1;)'1~Ut<wlm~tI: '~'1 (lOll' tiBtI:)'I ,ulJ61JccJ.llJ: ~lJ:J,

n'ltl~~'i:lJJ"tjiln'lCl'llJelJ:JIJlWlJ'Itj1':lJJntJ~tjW'ltJWtllJl~l'tW'Itj'~Cl "'1lJl'JtjECl"I!~r1t,cctJtJutjiiJJutj~'1lJ, "'1lJQJ~U'I,

ttliB'U1J"'1lJUtJIJ;!f;3Cl"'1lJ,ulJ~ee~tJl'~'I~lJtm!mil,n'lLll!ii~lJtt1BQt<n'lLl.n'1L1~tJ,'l; fi'l;)~UI'l~tielJ:)'1 d2'1t~'1~t~'1~tJ!Jn'u"

tJt<~'1~lJ~'1.lJ'IOIJl'l:5J~~JJBlJtB'JtIl'l~r5'1t1i1ltjtJJ~B'IV1'1t1 .

~1JtiU'l,tt-BtIl~n'llJCJl'Qmlt<Z"t,

45

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

FAO, (1995). Proceedings

of the project formulation

workshop

on a support program for

sustainable management, conservation and utilization of tropical rain forests In Asia. FAO Regional Office For Asia And The Pacific (RAPA). Bangkok 1995.

Gastom, G. (1995). Land Tenure, Use Rights and Titling of Agricultural and Forestry Land, General Findings. Consultancy Report No. 04. Nam Ngum Watershed Management and Conservation Project (NAWACOP).

LAO PDRlGTZ, (1994). Preparation Appraisal Mission, Main Report. Nam Ngum Watershed Conservation Project (NAWACOP)

Ralntree, J. B., (1986). Agroforestry Pathway: Land tenure, shifting cultivation, and sustainable agriculture. UNASYLVA.

RETA, 577177. Review of Policies and Institutions Related 10 Management of Upper ~alershed Catchments. Lao PDR.

UNCED, (1993). Agenda 21: Program of Action for Sustainable Development. United Nations, New York. 294p.

UNDP, (1998). Human Development Report. Oxford University Press. Daniel W. B. and Mlcheal M. C. (7). The management of common property natural resources. World Bank Discussion Papers. DSE (1998). Land Tenure and Polley Issues In Land Use Planning. International Seminar. Food and Agriculture Development Centre. Feldafing and lschortau. Germany.

DSE (1996). Sustainable Land Use In Rural Areas: Tools for Anaiysts and Evaluation. Food and Agriculture Development Centre. 'Feldafing and Zschortau. Germany. KIrk, M. (1996). Land Tenure Development and Orvesuture In Lao PDR. Relevance of Land Tenure Development for Developing Countries. GTl. Colchester, M. (7). Sustaining the forests: The communltybased approach In South and South East Asia. UNRISD, Discussion Paper. Penee, (2000). Methods In studying food security and nutrition. paper presentation at IDRC workshop In DDFD, Vientiane, Laos. Souchavanh S. (1996). Property rights and the problems of commonpooi resources. Paper presented atChulalongkon University, Thailand.

46

C:\Users\IDRC\Group

I\Report\Draft_7.doc

12/01/02

Vandergeest,

P. (1996). as a solution

Property

rights

In protecigd Foundation resource Decade Context

areas:

obstacles

to community Conservation.

tnvclvemant

In Thailand. Common

for Environment management: for Cultural of Natural

Wittayapak,

C. (1995). analytical Workshop Thailand.

property World

Theoretical

background Sub Regional

and

framework. on the

Development.

Cultural

Resources

Management.

Chlangmal,

IUCN Rambo

(2000) (1995-96) ( 1998 )

~t>lI1oCl5~

R~~t>C')'1 (1998) OJJ'J~lJtIl'lJJ (2002)

li1~n"'lllti1a2'1tJ2.1:;l1J~B1J ~UWl!tJ-me1JUl"l.Itl~"c!

U;Q1:!

Uie~!l:It:lJC!
mn:f1tluJ1JtM~~: tOilnt.g,lIn;~~: ..' . ..

5"i115jUl.uJ",

47

You might also like