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Table 2.

Volume and Cost for DRAM, 1974-1997 (1)


Sales, Gb (2)
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

2
15
78
180
441
964
2,128
3,026
7,735
19,899
45,915
58,775
128,564
171,488
323,469
430,596
646,964
1,030,107
1,897,935
3,128,925
4,803,048
8,826,830
15,459,917
30,010,120

Sales, $ (millions)
$10
$33
$124
$190
$318
$561
$958
$618
$926
$1,830
$3,556
$1,471
$1,960
$2,604
$6,722
$8,323
$6,437
$6,849
$8,521
$14,030
$22,998
$40,327
$25,626
$19,436

Bits per die


(millions) (3)

0.02

0.06

0.26
1

16

64

256

Table 3. Characteristics of Intel Microprocessors (I)


Generation
Release date
4004 Nov. 15, 1971
8080 April, 1974
8086 june.8, 1978
80286 Feb, 1982
Intel 386
Oct. 17, 1985
Intel 486
April. 10, 1989
Pentium
March. 22, 1993
Pentium II
May. 7, 1997
Pentium III
Feb. 26,1999

Transistors per chip Process technology, microns (2)


2,300
10
6,000
6.0
29,000
3.0
134,000
1.50
275,000
1.50
1,200,000
1.00
3,100,000
0.80
7,500,000
0.35
9,500,000
0.25

35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000

Colu

30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0

1975 1977 1979 1981 1


1974 1976 1978 1980 198

Table for Moore's Law calculation


Sales, Gb (2)

1977
1980
1983
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997

Sales, $ (millions) Bits per


die
(millions)
(3)
180
$190
0.02
2,128
$958
0.06
19,899
$1,830
0.26
58,775
$1,471
1
323,469
$6,722
4
1,030,107
$6,849
16
4,803,048
$22,998
64
30,010,120
$19,436
256

Unit Cost
5.0000
2.2000
1.5897
1.0556
0.7211
0.5820
0.4502
0.2042
0.1197
0.0920
0.0774
0.0250
0.0152
0.0152
0.0208
0.0193
0.0099
0.0066
0.0045
0.0045
0.0048
0.0046
0.0017
0.0006

Cumulativ Paramete Learning


e
r ( b)
Rate
production2
17
-0.41
75.4
95
-0.2
87.23
275
-0.49
71.22
716
-0.43
74.47
1680
-0.27
82.7
3808
-0.32
79.87
6834
-2.25
21.09
14569
-0.57
67.4
34468
-0.28
82.41
80383
-0.21
86.73
139158
-4.57
4.2
267722
-0.63
64.47
439210
-0.01
99.05
762679
0.49
140.87
1193275
-0.25
83.9
1840239
-1.63
32.28
2870346
-0.87
54.84
4768281
-0.64
64.06
7897206
0
99.83
12700254
0.15
111.2
21527084
-0.08
94.79
36987001
-1.81
28.54
66997121
-1.42
37.45

Average
71.48

Pn = Po (2^n)
microns (2)

Average n
2
1.38
2.27
2.21
1.04
2.13
1.37
1.27
0.34

Column A

Column B

1.5
18 months

975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997
4 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

Average
n
0.0000
2.0000
2.0000
1.9658
2.0000
2.0000
2.0000
2.0000

1.9951

verage n

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