1.

Year

Code

Net Sales($)

1997

50777

1998

67477

1999

80977

2000

98277

2001

124577

2002

156877

2003

201577

2004

227477

2005

256477

2006

10

281077

2010

14

384850.33

Ans i) the least square equation; y = 27093.3333x + 5543.666667

Here,
a = 27093.3333
b = 5543.666667
On the basis of this information, the estimated sales for 2010 is $ 384850 Million

Ans ii) Plot the net sales and trend line.

Net Sales ($)

450000
400000
350000
300000
250000

Net Sales($)

200000

Linear (Net Sales($))

150000
100000
50000
0
0

10

15

2.
Ans i)

Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

Code
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Imports of Carbon Blocks

(thousands of tons)
301
352
483
701
891
1229
1815
2640
3535
4358
5565
8204
10764
13714

2006

17

36695.26

y = 0.132x + 2.313

logY
2.478566
2.546543
2.683947
2.845718
2.949878
3.089552
3.258877
3.421604
3.548389
3.639287
3.745465
3.914026
4.031974
4.137164

4.56461

Carbon Block Import(Thousands of Tons)

5
4.5
4
3.5
logY

logY

2.5

Linear (logY)

2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0

10

15

Annual rate of increase

log b

0.132

1.355

b-1

0.355

So, Annual rate of increase = 35%

And estimated imports for the year 2006 = 36695 thousand tons.

20

3.

Year
1998

Quarter
Winter

Production
267

Spring

262

Summer

233

Fall
1999

Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

2000

2001

Summer
Fall
2002

2003

Summer

1075

268.75

1083

270.75

1133

283.25

1154

288.5

1191

297.75

1329

332.25

1365

341.25

1397

349.25

1409

352.25

1435

358.75

1485

371.25

1508

377

378
319
287
451

342

Spring

267.5

425

Spring

Winter

1070

275

428

Fall

266.5

287

Winter

Summer

1066

238

287

Spring

260.25

266

Spring

Winter

1041

292

342

Fall

4QTR
AVG

279

Winter

Summer

4QTR Total

1523

380.75

1554

388.5

1544

386

1537

384.25

1544

386

1538

384.5

302
482
418
335
309

Centered
Avg.

Seasonality

263.375

0.8846701

267

1.0449438

268.125

1.0890443

269.75

0.9860982

277

0.8592058

285.875

1.0039353

293.125

1.1667377

315

0.9111111

336.75

0.8166295

345.25

1.230992

350.75

1.0776907

355.5

0.8973277

365

0.7863014

374.125

1.2054795

378.875

1.1296602

384.625

0.8891778

387.25

0.779858

385.125

1.2515417

385.125

1.0853619

385.25

0.8695652

387.5

0.7974194

1562

2004

Fall

476

Winter

442

Spring

2005

Summer

319

Fall

510

1599

399.75

1633

408.25

1650

412.5

1640

410

1655

413.75

1672

418

1680

420

352

Summer

334

Fall

527

Winter

467

Spring

1706

426.5

1736

434

1786

446.5

378

Summer

364

Fall

577

Winter

Spring

1.0890443
1.1667377
1.0776907
1.1296602
1.0853619
1.1091593
1.1144158
1.0854155
8.857485
1.107186

0.9860982
0.9111111
0.8973277
0.8891778
0.8695652
0.8960396
0.8464082
0.8586031
7.154331
0.89291

1.11

0.89

C.F.
Adjusted Mean

397.25

459

Spring

Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total
Mean

1589

362

Winter

2006

390.5
393.875

1.2085052

398.5

1.1091593

404

0.8960396

410.375

0.7773378

411.25

1.2401216

411.875

1.1144158

415.875

0.8464082

419

0.797136

423.25

1.245127

430.25

1.0854155

440.25

0.8586031

Summer

Fall

0.8846701
0.8592058
0.8166295
0.7863014
0.779858
0.7974194
0.7773378
0.797136

1.0449438
1.0039353
1.230992
1.2054795
1.2515417
1.2085052
1.2401216
1.245127

5.613888
0.701736
0.937856

8.385702
1.048213

0.7

1.05

Interpretation:

The production of pine lumber during winter was 10% higher than the annual
average production.

The production of pine lumber during spring was 11% lower than the annual
average production.

The production of pine lumber during summer was 30% lower than the annual
average production.

The production of pine lumber during fall was 5% higher than the annual average
production.

Production for 2011 for different the different quarters:

Year

2011

Quarter

Production

Winter

594

Spring

502

Summer

479

Fall

643