KINH T HC QUN L

(Managerial Economics)
MBA Phng Danh Thng Email: danhthang.phung@gmail.com Mobile: 0903 22 11 83 Homepages: www.my.opera.com/danhthang.phung

Chng 1 Ch

Tng quan v kinh t hc qun l

Ni dung chng 1
Cc vn c bn ca Kinh t hc qun l
Kinh t hc qun l v l thuyt kinh t hc y o lng v ti a ha li nhun kinh t Cung, cu v cn bng th trng Cu trc th trng v cc quyt nh qun l

Ni dung chng 1
Cc vn c bn ca Kinh t hc qun l Phn tch cn bin cho cc quyt nh ti u q y Cc k thut c lng c bn
M hnh hi quy tuyn tnh c bn h h t t h b Kim tra ngha thng k c lng phng trnh hi quy Phn tch hi quy trong vic ra cc quyt nh qun l

Cc vn c bn ca KTHQL K Q
Kinh t hc qun l v l thuyt kinh t hc
Kinh t vi m: mn khoa hc nghin cu hnh vi kinh g t ca con ngi Kinh t hc qun l: p dng l thuyt kinh t vi m q p g y vo cc vn qun l

o lng v ti a ha li nhun kinh t g

Chi ph c hi ca vic s dng ngun lc
L ton b p tn m doanh nghip p gnh chu ph g p phi g c th s dng cc ngun lc nhm sn xut ra hng ha hay dch v g y Ngun lc:
Ngun lc do th trng cung cp Ngun lc do ch s hu cung cp

Tng chi ph kinh t

Tng chi ph kinh t:
Tng chi ph c hi ca c ngun lc do th trng g g g cung cp v ngun lc do ch s hu cung cp

Chi ph hin:
Khon tr bng tin cho vic s dng cc ngun lc do th trng cung cp

Chi ph Nn:
Chi ph c hi khng th hin bng tin ca vic s h kh h hi b i i dng cc ngun lc do ch s hu cung cp

Chi ph kinh t ca vic s dng ngun lc

Chi ph thc ca vic s dng cc ngun lc c cung cp bi th trng Cc khon phi tr cho ch s hu cc ngun lc

+
Chi ph n ca vic s dng p g cc ngun lc c cung cp bi ch s hu Cc khon thu b mt i khi khng a cc ngun lc ca ch s hu vo th trng

Tng chi ph kinh t

Tng chi ph c hi ca vic s dng c 02 ngun lc

Cc dng chi ph n
Chi ph c hi ca vn gp bng tin ca ch s hu Chi ph c hi ca vic s dng ti sn vn (t ai, ai nh xng) ca ch s hu Chi ph c hi ca thi gian m ch s hu doanh nghip d h cho vic qun l kinh doanh hi dnh h i ki h d h

Li nhun kinh t v li nhun k ton

LN Kinh t = Tng doanh thu chi ph kinh t N = Tng doanh thu chi ph hin chi ph Nn g p p LN K ton = Tng doanh thu chi ph hin Li h L i nhun k ton khng phn h c chi ph kh h nh hi h Nn m doanh nghip phi gnh chu Ch s hu phi thu hi li c ton b chi ph s dng ngun lc b ra g g mc ch l ti a ha li nhun kinh t

Ti a ha gi tr doanh nghip g g p
Gi tr doanh nghip:
L mc gi m ngi mua phi tr mua doanh g g nghip Bng gi tr hin ti ca li nhun k vng trong tng gg g g g lai

Ph ri ro (risk premium)
Phn tnh thm nhm b p cho s ri ro ca vic khng bit trc gi tr tng lai ca li nhun S khng chc chn v li nhun tng lai cng ln ph ri ro cng ln gi tr ca doanh nghip gim

Ti a ha gi tr doanh nghip g g p
1
(1 + r ) +

2
(1 + r )
2

+ ... +

T
(1 + r )
T

=
t =1

t
(1 + r )
t

Trong : t l li nhun kinh t c tnh s thu c trong khong thi gian t r l t l khu tr c iu chnh theo ri ro T l s nm tn ti ca mt doanh nghip

Cung, cu v cn bng th trng g g g

Cu Cung g Cn bng cung cu (cn bng th trng) S h S thay i trng thi cn bng th trng hi b h

Cu
Lng cu:
Lng hng ha hay dch v m ngi tiu dng mun g g y g g v c kh nng mua trong mt giai on nht nh

Hm cu tng qut
Su bin tc ng n lng cu (Qd)
Gi ca bn thn hng ha hay dch v (P) g y Thu nhp ca ngi tiu dng (M) Gi ca hng ha c lin quan (PR) Th hiu ca ngi tiu dng (T) K vng v gi hng ha trong tng lai (Pe) S lng ngi mua trn th trng (N )

Hm cu tng qut: Qd = f (P, M, PR, T, Pe, N) ( )

Hm cu tng qut
Qd = a + bP + cM + dPR + eT + fPe + gN
Trong : a: h s chn g b, c, d, e, f, g: h s gc (o lng s thay i ca Qd khi cc bin tng ng thay i trong khi cc bin khc g g y g c nh)

Du ca cc h s gc cho bit mi quan h ca cc bin tng ng vi Qd

Du dng: quan h thun Du m: quan h nghch

Hm cu tng qut
Bin P M Mi quan h vi lng cu T l nghch thng T l nghch vi hng ha th cp PR T Pe N T l thun vi hng ha thay th T l nghch vi h h b sung h h i hng ha T l thun T l th thun T l thun d=Qd/PR dng d= d Qd/PR m e=Qd/T dng f= f Qd/Pe d dng g=Qd/N dng Du ca cc h s b= Qd/P m c = Qd/M m T l thun vi hng ha thng c=Qd/M dng c

Hm cu
Hm cu (cu) cho bit lng hng ho m ngi tiu dng sn sng mua v c kh nng mua cc mc gi khc nhau khi cc yu t khc khng i Lut cu:

Qd = f(P)

Lng cu tng khi gi gim v l i i lng cu gim khi gi i i tng, cc yu t khc l khng i Qd/P phi mang du m

Hm cu ngc
Thng thng, gi (P) c biu din trc tung v lng (Qd) c biu din trc honh.
Phng trnh th hin mi quan h gia gi v lng nh vy c gi l hm cu ngc

Hm cu ngc: Hm cu khi gi c th hin di dng hm ca lng cu: P=f(Qd) P f(Q

V ng cu
Mi im trn ng cu cho thy:
Lng ti a ngi tiu dng s mua tng ng vi g g g g g tng mc gi Mc gi cao nht m ngi tiu dng sn sng tr g g g g mua mt lng nht nh hng ha

 th ng cu

V ng cu
S thay i trong lng cu:
Xy ra khi mc gi ca bn thn hng ha thay i y g g y Gy ra s di chuyn (trt dc) trn ng cu

S thay i trong cu:

Xy ra khi mt trong cc bin khc (cc yu t tc ng n cu) thay i Lm cho ng cu dch chuyn sang phi hoc sang tri

S dch chuyn ng cu y g

S dch chuyn ng cu y g
Cc nhn t quyt nh cu 1. Thu nhp (M) Hng ha thng thng H h th th Hng th cp 2. Gi ca hng ha lin quan (PR) Hng ha thay th Hng ha b sung 3. 4. 5. PR tng PR gim PR gim PR tng T gim Pe gim N gim d>0 d<0 e>0 f>0 g>0 M t tng M gim M gim i M tng c>0 0 c<0 Cu tng (a) Cu gim (b) Du ca h s gc (c)

Th hiu ca ngi tiu dng (T) T tng Gi c k vng (Pe) S lng ngi tiu dng (N) Pe tng N tng

Cung
Lng cung (Qs)
Lng hng ho hay dch v c bn trong mt g g y g khong thi gian nht nh (tun, thng, )

Cung
Su bin tc ng n lng cung (Qs)
Gi ca bn thn hng ha hay dch v (P) g y Gi ca yu t u vo (PI) Gi ca hng ha c lin quan trong sn xut (Pr) Tin b k thut (T) K vng gi ca sn phNm trong tng lai (Pe) S lng hng sn xut (F)

Hm cung tng qut

Qs = f ( P, PI , Pr , T , Pe , F )

Hm cung tng qut

Qs = h + kP + lPI + mPr + nT + rPe + sF
h: h s chn k, l, m, n, r, s: h s gc
o lng s nh hng n lng cung (Qs) khi cc bin tng ng thay i (cc bin khc khng i)

Du ca h s gc cho bit mi quan h ca cc bin tng ng vi lng cung:

Hm cung tng qut

Bin Quan h vi Qs
Quan h thun Quan h nghch Nghch i vi h2 thay th Thun i vi h2 b sung Quan h thun Quan h nghch Quan h thun

Du ca h s gc

P PI Pr T Pe F

k = Qs/P dng l = Qs/PI m m = Qs/Pr m m = Qs/Pr dng n = Qs/T dng r = Qs/Pe m s = Qs/F dng

Hm cung
Hm cung th hin quan h gia Qs v P khi cc yu t nh hng n cung (PI, Pr, T, Pe v F) khng i Qs = g (P P I, Pr, T', Pe', F') = g (P) (P, P P T F)

Hm cung ngc
Thng thng, gi (P) c biu din trc tung v lng (Qs) c biu din trc honh.
Phng trnh th hin mi quan h gia gi v lng nh vy c gi l hm cung ngc

Hm cung ngc: Hm cung khi gi c th hin di dng hm ca lng cung: P=f(Qs) P f(Q

V ng cung
Mi im trn ng cung th hin:
Lng ti a v hng ha hay dch v c bn tng g g y g ng vi tng mc gi

Mc gi ti thiu to ng lc cho cc nh sn g g xut cung cp mt lng hng ha nht nh.

 th ng cung

 th ng cung
S thay i ca lng cung
Xy ra khi g ca bn thn hng ha thay i y gi g y Gy ra s di chuyn (trt dc) theo ng cung

S thay i ca cung:
Xy ra khi mt trong cc bin khc (hay yu t tc ng n cung) thay i Lm cho ng cung dch chuyn sang phi hoc sang tri

S dch chuyn ng cung y g g

S dch chuyn ng cung y g g

Cc yu t quyt nh cung 1. Gi ca yu t u vo (PI) 2. 2 Gi ca hng ho lin quan t h h li trong sn xut (Pr) t Hng ha thay th Hng ha b sung 3. Trnh cng ngh (T) 4. Gi k vng (Pe) g g p y g 5. S lng doanh nghip hay nng lc sn xut trong ngnh (F) Pr gim Pr t tng T tng Pe gim F tng Pr tng Pr gim i T gim Pe tng F gim m< 0 m>0 n>0 r<0 s>0 Cung tng PI gim Cung gim i PI tng Du ca h s gc l<0

Cn bng th trng
Gi v lng cn bng c xc nh ti giao im gia ng cung v ng cu
Ti im giao nhau Qd = Qs N gi tiu dng c th mua c tt c hng ha m h mun N h sn xut bn ht c ton b s hng m h mun bn

Cn bng th trng

Tnh trng mt cn bng

D cu (thiu ht)
Xy ra khi lng cu ln hn lng cung y g g g

D cung (d tha)
Xy ra khi lng cung ln hn lng cu

S thay i trng thi cn bng y g g

D b h tnh: bo nh h
Ch d bo c hng thay i ca cc bin kinh t

D bo nh lng:
D bo c c v hng v bin trong s thay i ca cc bin kinh t

Dch chuyn cu (cung khng i)

Dch chuyn cung (cu khng i)

Dch chuyn ng thi (D S) D,

P S S S

P P P P

C D D Q

Price may rise or fall; Quantity rises

Dch chuyn ng thi (D S) (D,

P S S S

P P

Q Q Q

C D

Price falls; Quantity may rise or fall

Dch chuyn ng thi (D S) D,

P S S P P

D D Q Q Q Q

Price rises; Quantity may rise or fall

Dch chuyn ng thi (D S) D,

P S S S

P P P P

D D D Q Q Q Q

Price may rise or fall; Quantity falls

Cu trc th trng v q y nh q g quyt qun l

Hng chp nhn gi:
Khng th t g cho sn phNm ca mnh g gi Gi c xc nh trn th trng hon ton do cung v cu th trng quyt nh gq y

Hng t gi:
C th t gi cho sn phNm ca mnh C sc mnh th trng (tc l c th tng gi m khng mt ton b khch hng)

Th trng
L c ch m trong ngi mua v ngi bn tng tc vi nhau cng nhau xc nh sn lng v gi bn hng ha hay dch v Th trng gip gim chi ph giao dch
Chi ph giao dch: chi ph khc ngoi gi thc hin vi giao dch

Cu trc th trng
Cu trc th trng l nhng c tnh th trng quyt nh mi trng kinh t m mt doanh nghip hot ng
S lng v q y m ca cc doanh nghip hot ng g quy g p g trn th trng Mc khc bit ca sn phm gia cc nh sn xut cnh tranh vi nhau Kh nng xut hin thm nhng doanh nghip mi trn th trng khi cc doanh nghip hin thi ang lm n c li.

Th trng cnh tranh hon ho g

C s lng ln cc doanh nghip hot ng Sn phNm hng ha l ng nht Khng c ro cn gia nhp th trng

Th trng c quyn thun ty g q y y

C mt hng duy nht trn th trng Khng c sn p g phNm thay th gn gi y g g c bo v bi cc ro cn gia nhp th trng

Cnh tranh c quyn

C s lng ln cc doanh nghip hot ng Sn phNm hng ha khc bit p g Khng c ro cn gia nhp th trng

c quyn nhm
Mt s t cc doanh nghip sn xut ton b hoc phn ln sn lng ca th trng Cc hng ph thuc ln nhau:
hnh ng ca bt k doanh nghip no trn th trng cng c nh hng ln n sn lng bn ra v li nhun ca cc doanh nghip khc

Phn tch cn bin cho cc quyt nh ti u q y

Phn tch cn bin
Mt cng c phn tch gip gii quyt vn ti u bng cch thay i gi tr cc bin la chn vi quy m nh xem c th ci thin c hm mc tiu na hay khng

Li ch rng
Li ch rng (N et Benefit N B) N
L hiu s ca tng li ch (TB) v tng chi ph (TC) g g thc hin hot ng NB = TB TC

Mc ti u ca hot ng
Mc hot ng m ti li ch rng c ti a ho

Mc hot ng ti u
TC

Total benefit and total cost (dollars)

4,000 D

3,000 2,310 2,000 1,085 1,000 1 000 C 0 200 350 = A*

D
NB* = $1,225

G TB

B B
A 600 700 1,000

Level of activity y Panel A Total benefit and total cost curves

Net benefit (do ollars)

1,225 1,000 600 0

c
200

d 350 = A*

600

f f 1,000 NB

Panel B Net benefit curve

Level of activity

Li ch cn bin v chi ph cn bin

Li ch cn bin (MB)
s thay i trong tng li ch TB do c s thay i tng y g g y g ln trong mc hot ng

Chi ph cn bin (MC)

s thay i trong tng chi ph gy ra bi s thay i tng ln trong mc hot ng

Li ch cn bin v chi ph cn bin

Change in total benefit TB MB = = Change in activity A Change in total cost TC = MC = Change in activity A

Mi quan h gia gi tr cn bin v g tng

TC

Total benefit and total cost (dollars)

4,000 320 3,000 520 100 640 1,000 1 000 C 100

100 F

B
B

D D
D 100

820

G TB

2,000

C
100

520

100 340

A 350 = A* 600 800 1,000

200

Level of activity y Panel A Measuring slopes along TB and TC Marginal be enefit and marginal cos (dollars) st
8 6 5.20 4 2 MC (= slope of TC)

c (200, $6.40)

d (600, $8.20)
d (600, $3.20)

c (200, $3.40)

MB (= slope of TB)

200

350 = A*

600

800

1,000

Panel B Marginals give slopes of totals

Level of activity

Tm mc ti u ca hot ng
MB > MC Tng hot ng NB tng MB < MC NB gim

Gim hot ng

NB gim

NB tng

Tm mc ti u ca hot ng
N Net benefit (dollars)
MB = MC MB > MC 100 300 M 100 MB < MC

c
200

d
350 = A* 600

500

A
800 NB 1,000 1 000

Level of activity

Chi ph chm, chi ph c nh v chi ph p , p p bnh qun

Chi ph chm
Chi ph c thanh ton v khng th ly li g y

Chi ph c nh
Chi ph lin tc v phi thanh ton cho d ang thc hin bt c mc hot ng no

Chi ph bnh qun

Chi ph cho mi n v hot ng, c tnh bng thng s gia tng chi ph v s v hot ng h i hi h n h

N hng chi ph ny khng tc ng n MC v do vy khng tc ng n quyt nh ti u

Ti u ha c rng buc
T s MB/P phn nh li nhun tng thm trn mt n v chi ra cho hot ng T s MB/P ca cc hot ng khc nhau c s dng phn b lng tin c nh cho cc hot ng

Ti u ha c rng buc
Ti a ha hoc ti thiu ha hm mc tiu khi c iu kin rng buc
li ch cn bin ca mi n v tin c chi tiu cho tt c cc hot ng l bng nhau

MBA MBB MBZ = = ... = PA PB PZ

iu kin rng buc c tha mn

Cc k thut c lng c bn g
Hm cu tng qut: Qd = a + bP + cM + dPR + eT + fPe + gN Cn c lng cc tham s a, b, c, d, e, f, g S d dng phng php phn tch hi quy h h h h
L k thut thng k nhm c lng gi tr cc tham s ca mt phng trnh v kim nh ngha thng k.

M hnh hi quy tuyn tnh n q y y

M hnh hi quy tuyn tnh n ch ra mi quan h gia bin ph thuc Y vi mt bin c lp (bin gii thch) X Y = a + bX
a: h s chn b: b h s gc

b = Y / X

Hm hi quy tng th
Gi s bin ph thuc Y ch ph thuc vo mt bin gii thch X Khi X = Xi th c mt dy p y phn phi cc gi tr ca Y p g v tn ti duy nht gi tr k vng c iu kin E(Y/Xi) ( Khi cc gi tr Xi thay i th E(Y/Xi) cng thay i Xy dng hm hi quy tng th E(Y/Xi) = f(Xi) Hm hi quy tng th dng tuyn tnh: E(Y/Xi) = a + bXi (

Sai s ngu nhin

Xt gi tr Yi (Y/Xi) thng thng Yi E(Y/Xi) ), Sai s ngu nhin (SSN N ): ui = Yi E(Y/Xi) Bn cht ca SSN N :
din cho i d c o tt c nhng yu t khng p b g g g phi bin gii thch nhng cng tc ng ti bin ph thuc:
N hng y t khng bit g yu g N hng yu t khng c s liu N hng yu t khng nh hng nhiu n bin ph thuc Do sai s ca s liu thng k N hng yu t c tc ng qu nh, khng mang tnh h thng

M hnh hi quy tng th q y g

Ta c ui = Yi E(Y/Xi) Hm hi quy tng th: E(Y/Xi) = a + bXi M h h hi quy tng th hnh h Yi = a + bXi + ui ( (i = 1,N ) ,

Hm hi quy mu
Do khng bit ton b tng th nn phi c g g p lng cc tham s ca hm hi quy tng th thng qua mu ngu nhin Hm hi quy mu c dng: Ch :

M hnh hi quy mu
Phn d:
L phn chnh lch gia gi tr c lng v gi tr g g g g thc t ca Y Bn cht ca phn d ei ging sai s ngu nhin ui

M hnh hi quy mu:

Phng php bnh phng nh nht

Xc nh cc tham s c lng bng cch la chn gi tr ca a v b sao cho tng bnh phng cc phn d l nh nht

Bi ton c lng hi quy tuyn tnh n g q y y

Hng A B C D E F G Doanh s bn 15,000 15 000 30,000 30,000 25,000 55,000 45,000 45 000 60,000 Chi cho qung co 2,000 2 000 2,000 5,000 3,000 9,000 8,000 8 000 7,000

ng hi quy mu
S
70,000 Si = 60,000
Sam ple regression line Si = 11, 573 + 4.9719 A

Sales (dollars) )

60,000 50,000 40,000 40 000 30,000 20,000 20 000 10,000 ei

Si = 46,376

A
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Advertising expenditures (dollars)

c lng khng chch g g

S phn b gi tr ca cc tham s c lng xoay quanh gi tr thc ca cc tham s h i h h Tham s c lng c gi l khng chch nu g g g gi tr trung bnh (hay k vng ton) ca c lng bng gi tr thc ca tham s g gg

Cc tham s ca c lng OLS g

K vng ton: Phng sai
Var (a ) =

E (a ) = a
X i2 n x i2
i =1 i =1 n n

E (b ) = b
1 Var (b ) = n 2 x i2
i =1

lch chuNn vi
2 =

Se(a ) = Var (a )

Se (b ) = Var (b )

ei2
i =1

nk

 ngha thng k
Phi kim nh xem bin ph thuc Y c thc s ph thuc vo bin X hay khng (b 0) Kim nh ngha thng k bng cch s dng kim nh t hoc s dng p-value p value

Thc hin kim nh t

Kim nh t:
Kim nh thng k c s dng kim nh gi g g g thit gi tr thc ca tham s bng 0 (b = 0)

Xc nh mc ngha:
Xc sut kt lun tham s c ngha thng k (b 0) nhng trn thc t li khng c ngha thng k (b=0) (b 0) Xc sut mc sai lm loi I

ti cy: xc sut khng mc sai lm l i I tin t kh i l loi 1 mc ngha = tin cy

Thc hin kim nh t

Cp gi thuyt Tiu chuNn kim nh:
H 0 : b = 0 H1 : b 0

b Tqs = Se (b ) N u Tqs > t/2(n k) th bc b H0 v ngc li, cha li /2(n-k) c c s bc b H0 Bc b H0 hai kt lun tng ng
Xc sut kt lun b c ngha v mt thng k l mt kt lun sai nh hn % C th tin tng t nht (1- )% rng kim nh t khng mc p phi sai lm loi 1

S dng p-value p value

Cc tham s c lng c coi l c ngha v mt thng k nu gi tr p-value ca n nh hn mc ngha cho php cao nht P value P-value cho bit mc ngha chnh xc (hoc ti thiu) ca mt tham s c lng.

H s xc nh
t
yi = Yi Y yi = Yi Y ei = Yi Yi

2 R

yi = y i +ei
y i = y i + e2 i
2 2 i =1 i =1 i =1 n n n

Ta c:

TSS = ESS + RSS

TSS: o tng bin bi ng ca bi ph thuc bin h h ESS: Tng bin ng ca bin ph thuc c gii thch bi m hnh RSS: Tng bin ng ca bin ph thuc c gii thch bi cc yu t nm ngoi m hnh y g

H s xc nh
t
2

2 R

ESS RSS R = =1 TSS TSS R2 c gi l h s xc nh 0 R2 1 ngha: g

o lng t l phn trm s bin ng ca bin ph thuc c gii thch bi hm hi quy (bi cc bin g q y( gii thch)

Kim nh v s thch hp ca m hnh

Cp gi thuyt: Kim nh F
H0 : R 2 = 0 H1 : R 2 0

ESS /( k 1) R 2 /( k 1) Fqs = = RSS /( n k ) (1 R 2 ) /( n k )

N Fqs > F(k 1 k) th bc b H0: H hi quy c u (k-1,n-k) b Hm gii thch cho s bin ng ca bin ph thuc N gc l i cha c c s bc b H0: h hi quy li, h b hm khng ph hp

Kim nh v s thch hp ca m hnh p

Vi m hnh hi quy hai bin, hai cp gi thuyt
H 0 : b = 0 H1 : b 0

H0 : R 2 = 0 H1 : R 2 0

l tng ng

Hi quy bi
M hnh hi quy bi
M hnh c nhiu hn mt bin gii thch g

H s ca mi bin gii thch l s o bin ng ca bin ph thuc Y c gii thch bi s bin ng ca bin gii thch , khi cc bin gii thch khc c nh S dng kim nh t, kim nh F v h s xc nh R2 phn tch s ph hp ca hm hi quy

M hnh hi quy p tuyn tnh q y phi y

M hnh hi quy bc hai Y = a + bX + cX2 To bin mi Z
Z = X2

Thay vo m hnh ban u ta c: Y = a + bX + cZ

M hnh hi quy p tuyn tnh q y phi y

M hnh hi quy tuyn tnh lga Y = aXbZc Chuyn thnh dng tuyn tnh bng cch ly lga t nhin c hai v lnY = lna + blnX + clnZ t Y = lnY; a = lna; X = lnX v Z = lnZ Y a bX cZ Y = a + bX + cZ

V d
Gim c tip th ca Tp on Vanguard tin tng rng doanh s bn x phng git Brigt Side (S) ca cng ty l c quan h vi mc chi cho qung co (A) ca ring tp on v ng thi, cng c quan h vi tng chi ph qung co ca ba i th ln nht (R). Gim c tip th thu thp cc s liu trong 36 tun v S A v R c l t t S, lng phng t h hi quy bi nh sau: h trnh h S = a + bA + cR Kt qu hi quy ca my tnh nh sau:
DEPEN DEN T VARIABLE: OBSERVATION S: VARIABLE IN TERCEPT A R S 36 PARAMETER EXTIMATE 175086.0 0.8550 -0.284 R-SQUARE 0.2247 0 2247 STAN DARD ERROR 63821.0 0.3250 0.164 F-RATIO 4.781 4 781 T-RATIO 2.74 2.63 -1.73 P-VALUE ON F 0.0150 0 0150 P-VALUE 0.0098 0.0128 0.0927