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R20100893/31275000/ABU/EGR

6.0
Zoetermeer, 2010.

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, ,
.


.
.
,
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NEA Transport research and training ECORYS

. ,
,
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-
.
.
.
.
.

.
.


,
()

D20100893
2010.

1.1

1.2

1.3
1.4

2.1

2.2

2.3

3.1

3.2

17

3.3

19

17
17

II

21

23

4.1

23

4.2

23

4.3

24

4.4

26

4.5

28

5.1

5.2

31

5.3

31

5.4

40

5.5

42

5.6

42

5.7

44

5.8

45

D20100893
2010.

31
31

6.1

6.2

47

6.3

47

6.4

49

6.5

50

6.6

50

III

47
47

51

7.1

53

7.2

53

7.3

54

7.4

54

7.5

55

7.6

59

7.7

60

IV

53

61

63

8.1

8.2

8.3

63

66

69

73

75

103


2008-2030.

105

107

111

D20100893
2010.

A 7

115

A 8

117


C-B

121

A 9

A 10

G2G

123

11

125

12

C-B

127

D20100893
2010.

B/C

Benefit/Cost

B/C

BCR

Benefit/Cost Ratio

BCR

CBA

Cost Benefit Analysis

(C-B

C-B

)
CC

Candidate Countries

CC

CF

Cohesion Fund

CF

DCF

Discounted Cash Flows

DCF

EC

European Commission

EK

EIA

Environmental Impact

Assessment
ENPV

Economic Net Present Value

ENPV

ERDF

European Regional Development

Fund
EU

European Union

FNPV

Financial Net Present Value

FNPV

FRR

Financial Rate of Return

FRR

G2G

Government to Government

G2G

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GMPT

General Master Plan for Transport

IFI

International Financial

IPA

Institution
IPA

Instrument for Pre-Accession

IRI

International Roughness Index

IRI

IRR

Internal Rate of Return

IRR

MCA

Multi-Criteria Analysis

MCA

MIPD

Multi-annual Indicative Planning

MIPD

New Member States

NMS

NNC

New Neighbouring Countries

NNC

NPV

Net Present Value

NPV

O/D

Origin/Destination

OP

Operational Programmes

OP

PERS

Public Enterprise Roads of Serbia

PPP

Public Private Partnership

SCF

Strategic Coherence Framework

SCF

Document
NMS

Spatial Computable General

Equilibrium Mode

STM

Serbian Transport Model

TEN

Trans European Network

TEN

ToR

Terms of Reference

ToR

TRN

Transport Note

TRN

VOC

Vehicle operating costs

VOC

VoT

Value of Time

VoT

WB

World Bank

SCGE

SCGE

D20100893
2010.

1
1.1

EVD NEA-ECORYS
(G2G09/SB/5/2)
G2G. G2G
,
.

1.2


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D20100893
2010.

1.3



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(http://www.putevi-srbije.rs/).
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C-B
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2

D20100893
2010.

II: C-B
4 5 ,

.
III:
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C-B ..

D20100893
2010.

D20100893
2010.

2
,

2.1

, (i) C-B
; C-B (ii)
C-B ; C-B .

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C-B ?

C-B

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2.2.1 C-B

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D20100893
2010.

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C-B

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4.
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(Internal Rate of Return - IRR) (Net
Present Value - NPV).

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D20100893
2010.

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D20100893
2010.

2 . 2 . 3 ?



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2.1

() C-B
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C-B a
6

D20100893
2010.

. C-B
. C-B

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. C-B a

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C-B
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post)

C-B

(ex-ante).
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(ex post)

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C-B
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( )

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6 C-B
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(ERDF) 50 8.

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6
7

40 1083/2006, 157 IPA 718/2007, .


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D20100893
2010.

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TRN 269.

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2.3

C-B .
C-B
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1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

2.2
.

, . TRN-5 TRN-26, 2005.


D20100893
2010.

2.2

D20100893
2010.

2 . 3 . 1
C-B
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D20100893
2010.

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10. :

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D20100893
2010.

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D20100893
2010.

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D20100893
2010.

13

(
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C-B

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2.

()

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2-3
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55.2 1083/2006
2007-2013.
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Cost-Benefit Analysis).

14

D20100893
2010.


( ).


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14.
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2.3.5

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D20100893
2010.

15

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16

D20100893
2010.

3.1

; .

C-B .

C-B .


(2009).
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D20100893
2010.

17

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18

D20100893
2010.

3.3

16 ()

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25
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TRANS-TOOLS:
http://energy.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TRANSTOOLS/FTP.html.
18

, 2.3.
D20100893
2010.

19

.
(30)
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( 5.3.1). ,
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2005. 2030.
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5.3.1
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2030. ,
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( IRI 5.3.2).

20

D20100893
2010.

II

D20100893
2010.

21

4.1

II
C-B .
.
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C-B
C-B .

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C-B

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C-B

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4.2




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(
4.5):

(FRR)

(FNPV)

D20100893
2010.

23

,
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4.4.
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4.3

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4 . 3 . 1
C-B .
C-B ( .4)
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2000. 2006. 25 .

25

19. 3
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25 .
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D20100893
2010.

( ).

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D20100893
2010.

25

20.
21.
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22.

C-B
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D20100893
2010.

4 . 4 . 1

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23

JASPERS,
, 2008.
24
JASPERS,
, 2008.
25


D20100893
2010.

27



, 15%
20%.

4.4.2

.
: ,
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4 . 4 . 3
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4.5

.
26:
1.

(FNPV)

2.

(FRR)

4 . 5 . 1
(FNPV)
.
:

26

28

D20100893
2010.

FNPV ( S ) at St S0 (1S1i ) (1S2i ) 2

...

t 0

Sn
(1 i ) n

:
S t = t ( )

at

(1 i ) n

i
n

(FNPV)

. ,
() .


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4.5.2
(FRR)

:
n

St
0
t
t 0 (1 FRR )

FNPV ( S )

St

t ( )

). ,
( ).
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( ).
.
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,

().

D20100893
2010.

29

5.1

II
, C-B .

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:
1.

( 5.3).

2.

( 5.4).

3.

( 5.5).

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(IRR)
(ENPV).

5.3

C-B

, 27. ,

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HEATCO
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2006

D20100893
2010.

31

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JASPERS,
, 2008.
HEATCO -
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2006

29

32

D20100893
2010.


( )
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t =

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2010.
D20100893
2010.

33


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7

5.1

(VoT)

//

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2010.

: (2009.)

5.3.2
(VOC) /
/
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JASPERS,
, 2008.

34

D20100893
2010.

HDM-4
,
( ).

(i)
(ii)
. IRI ( )
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C-B
() .

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IRI .
.
(VC)
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5)
VC = a+b* +c*^2

5.2.
5.

5.2

IRI

12

0,25427

0,26845

0,29948

0,33829

-0,00313

-0,00347

-0,00458

-0,00619

0,00002

0,00002

0,00003

0,00006

: (2009.)

5 . 3 . 3

. C-B
:

: 30
.

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30 .
D20100893
2010.

35

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5.3 2010.
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2007-2030. 8.

5.3

2010

295.916

39.508

2.992

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: (2009.)

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8.

36

D20100893
2010.

5 . 3 . 4

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: CO, NO X , VOC, CH 4 , PM, CO 2, SO X.
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5.4,
. .

D20100893
2010.

37

5.4

(/)

CO

460,4

NOX

7,6

VOC

1,5

CH4

60,0

PM

33,3

CO2

3,0

SOX

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D20100893
2010.


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.

D20100893
2010.

39

5.4


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31

JASPERS,
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40

D20100893
2010.

32.

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1,000

0,918

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0,871

0,906

0,900

: (2009.)


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5.6

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0,884

0,450

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32

, , ( 98-105).

D20100893
2010.

41


0,7.

5.5

.

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0,94.
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5.6

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5%
.

33

DG (
ERDF, ISPA) -

42

D20100893
2010.


.
:
(Social Time Preference - STP)
. STP

,
.

.

( 15 12 ):
5.7

(15)

3%

4%

6%

5%

4%

3%

5%

4%
5,5% (2,5% , 3%
)

5%

6%

4%

UK

3,5%

(12)

5%

6%

5%

5,5%

5%

6%

5%

5,5%

5%

7%

: , JASPERS, HEATCO

D20100893
2010.

43

-

() .
9% ( ) 5%,
4%. .
.

10%.


10%,
.

, .

5.7


() ()
.
,
.
5.7.1
(ENPV)
.

B0 C0

n
B1 C1 B2 C2
Bt Ct
Bn Cn
Bt Ct
...
...

2
t
n
t
(1 r ) (1 r )
(1 r )
(1 r )
t 0 (1 r )

:
Bt = t
Ct = t
R =
N =

1
(1 r ) t

= t

,
NPV = PVB-PVC= =
n

n
Bt
Ct

t
t
t 0 (1 r )
t 0 (1 r )

44

D20100893
2010.

NPV >0,
.
5.7.2
(IRR)
.
/
34.
IRR:

B0 C0

Bt Ct
B Cn
B1 C1
B C2
2
...
... n
0
2
t
(1 IRR) (1 IRR)
(1 IRR)
(1 IRR) n

Bt
Ct
r
n
IRR

t
t



( )

(IRR) , .
,
, (
).
( ),
(FRR)
.
5 . 7 . 3
(Benefit/Cost Ratio - BCR)
.
.
BCR = /
.
BCR >1.

5.8

1.
.

34

,
(2008)

D20100893
2010.

45

6.1

.
,
:
.

6.2


( IRR NPV),

. , :

( ,

, , ).

( FNPV
ENPV).

,
.

6.3


.
,
35:
1.


.
, ,
, 6.1.

35

D20100893
2010.

47

2.

.
.

,
.
,
.
3.

. ,

IRR NPV. (
) .
4.

6.1


, ,

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), ,
, , ,

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.
,

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(

),

, ,
, .

( )

,
(

48

D20100893
2010.


),

.
: (2008.)



.
( ) 1%
1% IRR 5%
NPV.

,
.
.
.
.

.
.

(. switching values).
IRR , NPV=0.

.

6.4


, ,
.
.

.

D20100893
2010.

49

6.5

,
IRR NPV
.
,
.

. 36.
,

IRR NPV .
( )
. ,

. ,
IRR NPV
, .

IRR.

6.6


.
,

.

: ,
,
.

.
, , ,
,
.

36
(
. 7):


IRR NPV .
,

IRR NPV. ,
.

50

D20100893
2010.

III

D20100893
2010.

51

7.1

C-B .
,
. ,
C-B .
C-B .

7.2

C-B ,
C-B .
, C-B ,
.
, , ,

, .

C-B .
(IPA)


:
1.

, ( );

2.

Natura 2000 37.

3.

C-B ( , C-B
).

4.

37

Natura 2000 ,
(..)

D20100893
2010.

53

:
(ex-ante) 1.3 1.4 DG
REGIO, 2008 (
).

7.3

.
,
, .
.
, :

:

(. + ). ,

.

( 2.2 DG REGIO, 2008


,
).
( )?

:

, , .
,
!

() .

: -

- ?
, ?

7.4


/
, , .

?
:

:
?
? (

54

D20100893
2010.

2.3 DG REGIO, 2008 -

).

?
, C-B ?


, :


, , , ,
.?

? ? (
.)

?
() ; ?
?
()

.

, (
3.1.3.2
).


?
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,
?
/
/ / / ?

7.5


(./. C-B ) ,

,
(
, 2.4;
, . 4, 08/2006;
55 () . 1083/2006: ).

D20100893
2010.

55

:

:

,
.

?
?
C-B ?
(
DG REGIO :
)?

,
,
?


4.4.2 ,
/ /
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, 2.4.2 3.1)?


( 15% 20%
)?
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, )?

(
25 )?

.
,
.
(
)
,
()
.
/ ( ). :

56

D20100893
2010.

, ,

, ( 3.2
3.1.1.3
).


, ?

?

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/ )?
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? ( 2.4.2.2 C-B .)

,
?

() ?

()

,

?
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?

. ,
.

C-B
.

D20100893
2010.

57

,
, ?


( 4.3.4)


:
1.

()
?
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?
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, , .) (. FNPV/C<0)?


(.
)?



. (
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?

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)
, ()
?
, , ?

58

D20100893
2010.

/? ?
?

7.6


( ),
?

( )?

C-B (
5).

(ENPV,

- ,

IRR, )?
ENPV>0, IRR>
>1? ,
?

, ,

, 5.3

?
?
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)?
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.

/
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( 6 ).

?

D20100893
2010.

59


? 5.5

.
(. , )
.

, 5.5)

( 5.6)

,
/ ,



,
/ .
(
, , .),
.
C-B
( 5.3.5 ).

7.7

? 6.

?
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(. )?
, ?
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?

60

D20100893
2010.

IV

D20100893
2010.

61

8.1



.
.
:

-761 -.

-21,

-19
2
.

().
X, 2011. .

.

,
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.

.

,
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,

.
.
2
- ,
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,
2. C-B
, .
( 8.2)
.
( 8.3)
.

D20100893
2010.

63

8.1 -761 -

64

D20100893
2010.

8.2 -21,

D20100893
2010.

65

8.2

. :
1.

, ,

2.

.
(VoT)
IRI ( ).
.
3.

,
, .

, .
4.

5.

C-B

.
.
8,0%.
8 . 2 . 1


. 2 ,

.
.
( ).
.

2009. .
2005. .

38,

2005. .
2007, 2004. .
2015. ,
. 2015.
.
2 ,

100% (. ) 20
.

,
.
.
.

38

, 2009. .
2008. (.
2008. 2005. 2008.).

66

D20100893
2010.

39.
. 5%
.


, .
,
.
,
.

.
(-21, )
- 20%, 10%.

.
(-761 -)
,
( ).

2 :
2035. , 20 2011-2014.

8.2.2
(VoT) ,
:


2 .
.
.

.
,

. .

IRI 2
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IRI .

8 . 2 . 3

(,
) 2
.
,
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.


.
().

39

31, 1. 1) (
. 54/09),
.

D20100893
2010.

67

.
,
.
C-B .

,
2 .
.

8.2.4

, ,
.
.


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.

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( 5.8).
,
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).

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,
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.
.
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2 10%

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.
.



. :

,
.
68

D20100893
2010.


8%,

.
.

8.3


.

( ).
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.

quick

scan

( C-B ,

CBA)40

C-B 1. C-B
, 20-22.
2009. :

(VoT)

IRI

20

, 105 .

:
11.000 2015. 13.000
.


, .
,



( ) (
).

40


C-B (. .)

D20100893
2010.

69

:
. ,
25%
.

, .

2,5%,

3% 5%,
.

HEATCO .

I RI
, IRI
.
,

IRI 5 2 ,

.
/
,
, .
.
1 CO 2
.
.

.
5%
.

. , ,
,
. ,
.

1 8%,

10-12%,
. 5%,
.

1
EIRR. , NPV
.
70

D20100893
2010.

EIRR 13,4% EIRR


1 15,1%. , 5%
13,9. 5%
2,1.
.
8.3

, - .

0%
1% 7%
6%
2%

.
.
.
.
.
.

84%

D20100893
2010.

71

D20100893
2010.

73

.
C-B .
-.
.
, ;
.
.
1

C-B

E-761

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

17,5

69,5

5,6

5,9

6,2

6,6

7,0

7,3

7,8

8,2

8,6

9,1

9,6

10,2

10,7

11,3

12,0

12,6

13,3

14,1

14,9

15,7

16,6

1,0

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,2

5,9

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,7

0,7

0,7

0,7

0,7

0,8

0,8

0,8

0,8

0,9

0,9

0,9

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. .

0,6

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0,1

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0,1

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0,1

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0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

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0,1

0,1

0,1

3,6

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

0,5

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-0,0

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22,7-

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8,8

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15,4

16,3

17,2

18,2

80,4

32,0-

C-B

(NPV; .)

48,4

. . (EIRR

22,4%

2,5

2015-2035.

3,0%

8,0%

25 .

0,2 //

2012

2014

0,8

10
2,5%
397.000

. 53.000

. ()

0,7

CO2

300

CO2

2,4
0,003

C-B
E-761

(km/h)
.

.

(km)
(km)
. ()
. ()
. ()
. ()

()
()
()
()
(IRI)
. (/)
. (/)


, CO2
( )

, ( )

1
2
3

74

5,3 /


. ()

. 2015
. 2015.

2015

2015

35
29
35
29
15
4
0,43
0,52
0,11
0,14

95
65
95
65
15
4
0,16
0,23
0,04
0,06

0,27
0,29
0,07
0,08

11.000
380
3.500
120

12.980
448
4.130
142

1.980
68
630
22

0,135
0,405

0,125
0,375

0,01
0,03

1
15

0
14

1
1

18.518

21.851

-3.333

33.446.043
24,8%
35,0%
40,2%
5,0%

D20100893
2010.

.

.

D20100893
2010.

75

1:

-761

( )

761 -.
- 5 - 5/ 22
-5 -5/-22 ,

2006.

2007.

, ;

- 76 1
-761 , ,
-5 -5/22, .

-5 -5/-22.
-761,
-5 -5/-22.
:

-761
,

D20100893
2010.

77


-761
:
1)



-5 -5/-22;

2)



,
-5 -5/-22 ( .
);

3)

4)

-765;

,
-761 -5 -5/-22,
-761 . ;
5)


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6)

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( )
( );
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8)

,
, 20-
,
761

- ;
9)


-761, - ;

10)

()

11)

-761 - ;
, .
.

78

D20100893
2010.

2013. 2015. .

20- 2016.. 2035. .

:
1)

-761, , , 2007..

2)

.. .

3)

2000. 2007. , ..
.

4)

-761, ,
2007..

5)

,
, ,
.

6)

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-.

106.
( 47/03)
,
.
80. 20. 2005. ., II
.
8, 4, .

761,
,
,

.

(
), .

.
.
;

D20100893
2010.

79

, .


, .

.

a)

-761,
COST-BENEFIT ,

()

. ISR (. IRR) NSV (. NPV)



.
b)

-5

-5/-22

-,

. ,
-761, 20-
,
-761, ..
c)

. ,
-761, .

d)

: /
(
) HCM-2000 .
.

e)

- -5 -5/-22
( ) ,
" ",
.

f)

- -761

g)

, 20- , (
) HDM-4.

HDM-4,
() .
h)

V-0-to-0-V,
,
.
i)

20-
( )

.
j)

20-

(
)

80

"

D20100893
2010.

", , 1997..
349
(562 ) ().
1981.-1987..,
.
k)

, .
,
. . 20-
.

l)


1974..
m) 80%
-761,
.
n) - EISR
(. EIRR) ENSV (. ENPV) EVAL.
EISR ENSV

-761 (T=10%) (E=10%).
o)

-761 (
), - ,
EISR OCK=10% ENSV (
OCK= 10%) .

p)

-761

:
-
, NU=F (q/C i Ve);
-
-761.


-761 -5 -5/-22 :
a)

-5 -5/-22

-
- -761 -.
- .
b)

-5 -5/-22, .
,
. ,
.

()

2004..

.
2016.. 2035. .

D20100893
2010.

81

(/)

.
2004.

2016.

2035.

() -

9.640

18.423

8.353

14.738

26.329

6.700

11.820

21.116

- 1

6.700

11.820

21.116

1 -

8.023

14.199

25.276

9.346

16.577

29.435

9.346

16.577

29.435

8.964

15.900

28.261

7.855

13.907

24.759

10

7.968

14.102

25.227

11

8.046

14.239

25.363

12

3.500

6.138

11.859

3.721

6.511

11.715

4.652

7.549

14.653

..

..
13

14

.
.
a)

-761

(/)

E-761


2016.

2035.

6.900

13.185

1.510

2.884

4.904

9.364

1.073

2.049

4.898

9.348

1.072

2.045

9.286

17.746

2.032

3.882

3
4

.
.

2016.

2035.

. -

9.854

18.830

2.156

4.119

9.716

18.567

2.126

4.062

. -

10.789

20.617

2.360

4.510

10.788

20.617

2.360

4.510

7.550

14.428

1.652

3.156

10

8.284

15.830

1.812

3.463

11

M-5/M-22

9.640

18.423

2.109

4.030

12

M-5/M-22-

9.640

18.423

2.108

4.030

82

D20100893
2010.

b)

-5 -5/-22
-761,
.

(/)


2016

2035

4.126

7.879

2.757

5.263

- 1

2.757

5.263

3.687

7.037

4.618

8.811

4.618

8.811

4.430

8.457

3.232

6.168

3.280

6.259

10

..

3.974

7.587

11

. -

1.220

2.320

12

762

1.448

c)
-761

()

< 2%

< 3%

2 + 1
-

109,612

3,75

d) 761

,

()

-
(109,612)

D20100893
2010.

()

()

33.446.043.153

26.756.834.522

()

2013

6.689.208.631

2014

9.364.892.083

2015

10.702.733.809

83

e)
-761

()

()

2016.
-
f)

a)

b)

2035.

3.312.803.080

2016.

5.717.268.851

3.679.740.025

2035.
6.341.804.089

-761
:
:
-

EISR = 13,47% (%)

ENSV= 10.063.422.751 ()

EISR (%)

ENSV ()

M-5/M-22-

10,5%

57.492.581

15,1%

3.939.125.139

17,9%

3.642.515.933

12,4%

2.566.672.663

12,9%

324.965.204

7,6%

-868.309.659

g)


, -
:

a)

-761
, ,
EISR= 13,47%, OCK=10%-12%.
() 761 :

b)

EISR (%)

ENSV ()

1.

17,9%

3.642.515.933

2.

15,1%

3.939.125.139

3.

12,9%

324.965.204

4.

12,4%

2.566.672.663

5.

M-5/M-22-

10,5%

6.

84

7,6%

57.492.581
-868.309.659

D20100893
2010.

q)

-5,

(
), ,

.

-761 :
a)

-761

,
(EISR =13,47)
(OCK =10 do 12%),
ENSV >0.
,

b)

-761.

r)


-,
-5 -
-5/-21 --,

-763

---,
,
-761 ---
-761 ---- .

D20100893
2010.

85

2: -21,
,
-19,

( )



-21 -- ,
-19 -.
- 21
-19
21 -19 ,
2006. 2007. , :


, , ,
, ;

, , ,
, ;

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- 2 1
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, ,
-21 19, .

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.
,

, ,

. .

D20100893
2010.

87



-21 -- -19 - :
a)

,
( .
),

.
;
b)

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-

, (
) ( );
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() .
. ;

d)

20-

- ;
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.
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, - ;

g)

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, .
.

2011. 2014. .

20- 2015.. 2034. .

88

D20100893
2010.

-21 --
-19 -.
( )
,
2007.. .

2000. 2006. .

4- -21 - 2- -19 -.

---
EPTISA
, , , 2007.

,
, ,
.

-21 - -19 -.

106.
( , 47/03)
,
.
80. , 20. 2005.., II
. 8, 4,
.

,
,
,
114.
,

D20100893
2010.

89

,
.


,
:


,
.
s)


COST-BENEFIT ISR
(. IRR) NSV (. NPV),
.


COST-BENEFIT
.
ISR NSV
.

21 -- -19 -,

20- ,
. ,
( )
,
.
( /
) ( )
HCM-2000
.
- -21 -19
( )
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.
---,
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-
.

20- (
90

D20100893
2010.

) HDM-4.
HDM-4,
()
.

V-0-to-0-V,
, .
20-
( )

.
20-
( )

"

",

1997..

349

(562

().
1981.-1987..,
.


. . 20-
.
80%
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- EISR
ENSV EVAL. EISR ENSV

(T=10%) (E=10%).
( ,
) -21 -19, -
, EISR OCK=10%
ENSV ( OCK= 10%) .

:

, NU=F (q/C Ve);

D20100893
2010.

91

-21 - 19 -:
1)

-21
-- -19 -;

:
-

-21 - -

2)

-21 -19, .

.

92

D20100893
2010.

() (2007.)

2007. (/)

Naziv

()

21 -- ( M 19)

01

. () - .

2.970 9.490

220

525

185

230 1050

11.700

2.875 8.990

210

505

170

225 1050

11.150

() - .

0.560 7.119

82

425

122

201

827

8.776

..() - .. (

1.780 8.222

238

496

145

229 1079

10.409

5.595 7.072

211

470

112

226 1091

9.182

5.000 6.439

213

442

104

231 1093

8.522

()
02

()

()
03

..
()

04

)
05

..( ) -
. ()

06

() -
()

07

() - ()

2.935 7.498

210

420

190

227 1155

9.700

08

() - ()

7.150 6.805

206

386

220

221 1164

9.002

09

2.225 3.483

66

225

165

174 1140

5.253

0.745 4.207

77

161

171

270 1245

6.131

()

)
10

()
11

() - ()

3.115 4.564

82

204

183

284 1258

6.575

12

() E 70

2.215 5.587

144

223

234

189 1296

7.673

13

70 - ( 103.3)

6.895 5.754

216

224

244

147 1160

7.745

14

( 103.3) -

4.095 6.427

227

226

245

152 1167

8.444

15

6.455 7.127

232

227

241

170 1163

9.160

16

6.745 7.825

237

228

239

188 1161

9.878

17

- ()

4.135 8.166

238

246

233

197 1250

10.330

18

() - (

2.235 8.166

238

246

233

197 1250

10.330

M 19)
M 19: ( M 1 -

19

( 19) -

9.730 8.166

238

246

233

197 1250

10.330

( 209) - ( 14.875 6.441

210

264

115

211

587

7.828

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201

203

96

171

510

6.125
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( 209)
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208a)
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( 208) -
( 210)

22

( 210) -

8.200 4.687

195

185

87

159

507

23

- ()

9.930 6.098

198

191

91

163

509

7.250

24

() -

1.340 8.996

206

205

99

172

517

10.195

6.640 3.777

53

62

51

70

362

4.375

()
25

()

()

D20100893
2010.

93

() (2015.)

()

2015. (/)
A

TT

M 21: -- ( M 19)

01

()

2.970

14.369

322

782

275

342

1564

17.654

. () -

2.875

13.612

307

752

253

335

1564

16.822

0.560

10.779

120

633

182

299

1231

13.244

1.780

12.449

348

739

216

341

1607

15.699

..( ) - .

5.595

10.708

309

700

167

337

1625

13.844

()
02

()
03

..

()

()
04

..()

..

)
05

()
06

() - ()

5.000

9.749

312

658

155

344

1628

12.845

07

() - ()

2.935

11.353

307

625

283

338

1720

14.626

08

() - ()

7.150

10.303

302

575

328

329

1733

13.569

09

() - ( )

2.225

5.274

97

335

246

259

1698

7.907

10

0.745

6.370

113

240

255

402

1854

9.232
9.902

()
11

() - ()

3.115

6.910

120

304

273

423

1873

12

() E 70

2.215

8.459

211

332

348

281

1930 11.561

13

70 - ( 103.3)

6.895

8.712

316

334

363

219

1727 11.671

14

( 103.3) -

4.095

9.731

332

337

365

226

1738

12.728

15

6.455

10.791

340

338

359

253

1732

13.812

16

6.745

11.848

347

340

356

280

1729

14.899

17

- ()

4.135

12.364

348

366

347

293

1861

15.580

18

() - ( M

2.235

12.364

348

366

347

293

1861

15.580

19)
M 19: ( M 19) -

19

( 19) - (

9.730

12.364

348

366

347

293

1861

15.580

209)
20

( 209) - ( 208a)

14.875

9.752

307

393

171

314

874

11.812

21

( 208) - (

7.425

7.486

294

302

143

255

759

9.239

210)
22

( 210) -

8.200

7.097

285

275

130

237

755

8.778

23

- ()

9.930

9.233

290

284

136

243

758

10.943

24

() -

1.340

13.621

302

305

147

256

770 15.401

6.640

5.719

78

92

76

104

539

()
25

() - ()

94

D20100893
2010.

6.607

() (2034.)

2034. (/)

()

TT

M 21 -- ( M 19)

01

. () - .

2.970 25.041

536 1.332

469 583

2.663

30.624

2.875

23.722

512 1.281

431 571

2.663

29.180

.. () - .

0.560

18.785

200 1.078

309 510

2.098

22.980

1.780

21.695

580 1.258

368 581

2.737

27.219

5.595 18.661

514 1.192

284 573

2.767 23.99.1

5.000 16.991

519 1.121

264 586

2.773

22.254

()
02

()

()
03

()
04

..() - .. (
)

05

..( ) -
. ()

06

() -
()

07

() - ()

2.935

19.785

512 1.065

482 576

2.930

25.350

08

() - ()

7.150

17.956

502

979

558 561

2.953

23.509

09

2.225

9.191

161

571

419 441

2.892

13.675

0.745 11.101

188

408

434 685

3.158

15.974

()

)
10

()
11

() - ()

3.115

12.043

200

517

464 720

3.191

17.135

12

() E 70

2.215

14.742

351

566

594 479

3.287

20.019

13

70 - ( 103.3)

6.895

15.183

527

568

619 373

2.942

20.212

14

( 103.3) -

4.095

16.959

553

573

621 386

2.960

22.052

15

6.455

18.806

566

576

611 431

2.950

23.940

16

6.745

20.648

578

578

606 477

2.945

25.832

17

- ()

4.135

21.548

580

624

591 500

3.171

27.014

18

() - (

2.235

21.548

580

624

591 500

3.171

27.014

M 19)
M 19: ( M 19) -

19

( 19) -

9.730

21.548

580

624

591 500

3.171

27.014

( 209) - ( 14.875

16.996

512

670

292 535

1.489

20.494

7.425

13.046

490

515

244 434

1.294

16.023

( 209)
20

208a)
21

( 208) -
( 210)

22

( 210) -

8.200

12.368

475

469

221 403

1.286

15.222

23

- ()

9.930 16.091

483

484

231 413

1.291

18.993

24

() -

1.340

23.738

502

520

251 436

1.311

26.758

6.640

9.966

129

157

129 178

918

11.477

()
25

()

()

D20100893
2010.

95

3)

I:

() ()
[ : ]

()
(
)

()

11(1) . ()
-
()

1.000

12(1) ()
-. ()

1.970

. ()
13(1)
.
()

2.875

14(1) . ()
-.
()

0.560

15(1) .
.

1.780

() (

)
16(1) .
)
()

(
-.

II:

1.055

2015. (/)
A

TT

2015

14.369

322

782

275

342

1.564

17.654

2034

25.041

536

1.332

469

583

2.663

30.624

2015

14.369

322

782

275

342

1.564

17.654

2034

25.041

536

1.332

469

583

2.663

30.624

2015

13.612

307

752

253

335

1.564

16.823

2034

23.722

512

1.281

431

571

2.663

29.180

2015

10.779

120

633

182

299

1.231

13.244

2034

18.785

200

1.078

309

510

2.098

22.980

2015

12.449

348

739

216

341

1.607

15.700

2034

21.695

580

1.258

368

581

2.737

27.219

2015

10.708

309

700

167

337

1.625

13.846

514 1.192

284

573

2.767

23.991

2034 18.661

()
( )

()

()

2015. (/)

() 10.900
- ()

2015

2034 16.141

22

2015 10.303

302

2034 17.956

502

23

()

()
( )

21

()

7.110
2.225

A
9.262

TT

615

150

334 1.620

12.230

414 1.048

256

568 2.760

21.187

575

328

329 1.733

13.570

979

558

561 2.953

23.509

249

2015

5.274

97

335

246

259 1.698

7.909

2034

9.191

161

571

419

441 2.892

13.675

6.370

113

240

255

402 1.854

9.234

24

(. ) - 0.745
()

2015

2034 11.101

188

408

434

685 3.158

15.974

25

() - 3.115

2015

120

304

273

423 1.873

9.903

()

2034 12.043

200

517

464

720 3.191

17.135

() M 2.215

2015

8.459

211

332

348

281 1.930 11.561

1 (E 70)

2034 14.742

351

566

594

479 3.287

M 1 (E 70) - 0.750

2015

8.712

316

334

363

219 1.727 11.671

2034 15.183

527

568

619

373 2.942

26
27

III:

6.910


[ : ]

96

D20100893
2010.

20.019
20.212

()

()

2015. (/)
A

TT

31(1) - ()
32(1)
()
33(1)

()

()

11.600

7.350

( 3.750

208)
34(1) ( 208) -

0.300

35(1) - (M 19)

6.300

IV:

2015

8.102

310

301

345

214

1.693

10.965

2034

14.120

517

512

588

365

2.884

18.986

2015

10.467

322

304

341

250

1.714

13.398

2034

18.241

536

517

581

426

2.920

23.221

2015

8.897

322

228

273

162

1.714

11.596

2034

15.505

536

388

464

276

2.920

20.089

2015

8.897

322

228

273

162

1.714

11.596

2034

15.505

536

388

464

276

2.920

20.089

2015

8.897

322

228

273

162

1.714

11.596

2034 15.505

536

388

464

276 2.920 20.089


[ : 1/IV
() 2/IV ()]

()

()

41(2) ( 209) -

11.500

42(2) -

3.000

43(2) -

17.000

44(2) -

8.515

D20100893
2010.

2015. (/)
A

TT

2015

8.550

236

363

156

289

837

10.431

2034

14.901

392

619

266

492

1.426

18.096

2015

6.738

236

273

128

229

722

8.326

2034

11.742

392

464

218

391

1.230

14.437

2015

5.678

230

220

104

189

719

7.140

2034

9.895

383

375

178

322

1.225

12.378

2015

8.309

233

256

122

219

721

9.860

2034 14.481

388

436

208

373 1.228

17.114

97

V:

()
( )

()
( )

()


51

6.68

2015. (/)
A

TT

2015 5.719

78

92

76

104

539

6.60

2034 9.966

129

157

129

178

918

11.477

4)

B1/I ()

9.240

36.219.509

27.060

115.402.859

B1/I ()

29.300

95.190.064

65,600

246.812.432

40.015

99.148.411

6.682

13.265.401

46,697

112.413.812

II

()


()

III
4-

IV
V

B2/I ()

2-

5)

98

D20100893
2010.

(UR)

B1/I ()

36.219.509

II

115.402.859

III

B1/I ()

95.190.064

IV

B2/I ()

99.148.411

13.265.401

(EUR)
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014

12.073.170
12.073.170
12.073.170
38.467.620
38.467.620
38.467.620
31.730.021
31.730.021
31.730.021
33.049.470
33.049.470
33.049.470
4.421.800
4.421.800
4.421.800

6)


2015.
()


2034.
()

B1/I ()

623.843.564

1.340.036.475

II

1.478.979.225

2.876.215.021

III

B1/I ()

2.220.069.248

5.638.487.333

IV

B2/I ()

1.217.870.363

2.104.777.439

57.381.236

97.591.421

7)

(%)

()

B1/I ()

24,75%

4.954.649.270

II

19,19%

8.734.612.746

III

B1/I ()

31,77%

22.346.419.697

IV

B2/I ()

17,99%

6.215.876.341

5,12%

-378.616.344

22,93%

41.872.941.709

8)


D20100893
2010.

99

a)


, EISR=22,93%,
OCK=10%-12%.

b)


-21
, EISR=25,35%, OCK=10%12%.

c)

-19
,
EISR=16,77%, OCK=10%-12%.

d)


()
, EISR=5,1%, OCK=10%-12%.
9)

,
- (-21 -19)
.
:
A.

4- -21

B.

2- -19

:
A.

4- -21


()
()

B.

()

2- -91

100

D20100893
2010.

1)


(-21 -19), ,
,

, ,
.
2)

:
a)


, EISR=22,93%,
OCK=10%-12%.

b)


-21
, EISR=25,35%, OCK=10%-12%.

c)

-19
,
EISR=16,77%, OCK=10%-12%.

d)


()
, EISR=5,1%, OCK=10%-12%.

1)


-21
-19 -.
2)


.
( )

D20100893
2010.

101

( )

( )

30

50

30

30 -
30

40-60
40 -

30

20

30

25

20 - 30
20

20 30

20 - 25

30

30

20

: HEATCO

D20100893
2010.

103

4
2008-2030.

//

2008

3.50

0.02

2009

3.65

0.03

2010

3.75

0.05

2011

4.10

0.08

2012

4.30

0.12

2013

4.60

0.15

2014

5.00

0.18

2015

5.30

0.20

2016

5.90

0.22

2017

6.20

0.26

2018

6.80

0.28

2019

7.10

0.31

2020

7.60

0.36

2021

7.80

0.40

2022

8.30

0.50

2023

8.90

0.60

2024

9.40

0.70

2025

10.00

0.80

2026

11.00

0.90

2027

12.00

1.00

2028

13.00

1.00

2029

15.00

1.20

2030

17.00

1.40

D20100893
2010.

105

(VOC) /

. HEATCO


.
:

()

), , ,
, , , .

():
( ), (

),

).

, , , (
), , .
:

:
, (), (),
;

,
, ;

(IRI);

( , .).

HDM-4
.


:
)
) .
(IRI)
.

.

IRI

. ,
.

D20100893
2010.

107

VOC. IRI
(/)
0.4

0.35
/
0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1
20

40

60
IRI=2

80

IRI=5

IRI=8

100

120

IRI=12

(/)

,
:
VOC = a+b* +c*^2
.
. ,
. IRI

.
.

108

D20100893
2010.


IRI

12

12

12

0.26845
0.00347

0.29948

0.33829

0.26100

0.27162

0.29968

0.33828

0.27033

0.27951

0.30294

0.34194

0.25427
0.00313

-0.00458

-0.00619

-0.00340

-0.00361

-0.00459

-0.00619

-0.00384

-0.00395

-0.00472

-0.00635

0.00002

0.00002

0.00003

0.00006

0.00002

0.00002

0.00003

0.00006

0.00002

0.00003

0.00004

0.00006


IRI

12

12

12

1.65630
0.02479

1.87637

2.19782

1.54920

1.67934

1.88024

2.20082

1.60672

1.72776

1.91412

2.20794

1.51983
0.02371

-0.02913

-0.03861

-0.02485

-0.02566

-0.02902

-0.03836

-0.02610

-0.02652

-0.02910

-0.03690

0.00016

0.00017

0.00022

0.00036

0.00017

0.00018

0.00022

0.00036

0.00019

0.00019

0.00023

0.00034


IRI

12

12

12

0.85844
0.01396

0.95042

1.08814

0.82347

0.86666

0.95308

1.09052

0.84432

0.88545

0.96247

1.09960

0.80922
0.01322

-0.01647

-0.02156

-0.01395

-0.01440

-0.01663

-0.02172

-0.01499

-0.01534

-0.01708

-0.02217

0.00009

0.00010

0.00013

0.00020

0.00010

0.00010

0.00013

0.00020

0.00011

0.00011

0.00014

0.00021

D20100893
2010.

109


IRI

12

12

12

1.01700
0.01569

1.13035

1.29658

0.98547

1.03118

1.13437

1.29363

1.00945

1.05325

1.14070

1.30389

0.96672
0.01513

-0.01893

-0.02533

-0.01599

-0.01633

-0.01906

-0.02493

-0.01704

-0.01729

-0.01922

-0.02530

0.00010

0.00011

0.00014

0.00024

0.00011

0.00011

0.00015

0.00023

0.00012

0.00012

0.00015

0.00023


IRI

12

12

12

1.45989
0.02246

1.64208

1.90532

1.40985

1.48466

1.64397

1.90898

1.45866

1.52785

1.66036

1.90459

1.37266
0.02145

-0.02803

-0.03836

-0.02305

-0.02352

-0.02788

-0.03833

-0.02427

-0.02446

-0.02739

-0.03660

0.00014

0.00015

0.00022

0.00038

0.00016

0.00016

0.00022

0.00038

0.00017

0.00018

0.00021

0.00035


IRI

12

12

12

1.93189
0.03016

2.09199

2.38623

1.71524

1.82037

2.01209

2.33421

1.83202

1.93189

2.09199

2.38623

1.83202
0.02991

-0.03325

-0.04374

-0.02645

-0.02700

-0.03207

-0.04443

-0.02991

-0.03016

-0.03325

-0.04374

0.00024

0.00024

0.00028

0.00045

0.00019

0.00020

0.00027

0.00046

0.00024

0.00024

0.00028

0.00045

110

D20100893
2010.

C-B
. ,
, i j m.

( ). (CS 0 )
ijm 4(i).

CS ijm ,

)
4(ii).
GC ijm
( ), :

( (
, , .)
).

GC ijm

T ijm V T ijm

ijm

ijm
T , V T
/ (
,
).
C-B

. ,

,
.

D20100893
2010.

111

4:

(i)
Consumer surplus
in the
do-minimum
scenario
(i)

Generalised
cost, GC
GCijm
,
ijm

O
Supply, SS
,
ijm
ijm

CS0
GC0

Demand,
Dijm=f(GCijm,)

T0

Trips, Tijmijm
,

(ii)



(ii)
User benefit
(=change(=
in consumer
surplus) in the )
do-something
scenario



compared
with the
do-minimum

Generalised

cost, GCGC
,
ijmijm
0 O
,Sijm
S ijm
Supply,

Supply, Sijm1

, S ijm 1

GC
GC1
Benefit =CS
=DCS

Demand,

Dijm=f(GCijm,)
0

T0 T1

Trips, Tijm ijm


,

: IASON 41.

,
(CS) :

41

Deliverable 1: IASON Project Assessment Baseline Version 1.0 IASON, Mackie PJ,
Nellthorp J, Kiel J, Schade W, Nokkala M (2001) uz doprinos partnera Ugovor:
GRD1/2000/25351 S12.316053 Koordinator projekta: TNO Inro, Delft, Holandija.
Finansirano od strane Evropske komisije 5th Framework Transport RTD

112

D20100893
2010.

1
0
CS CS ijm
CS ijm

ijm

i j , m
, 1 0
;
CS 1 ijm i j m
.
GC 0 GC 1 T 0 T 1
. , (T 1
T 0 ) .

.
: C-B
,
( 3)

.
,

VT ,

,
.
C-B

()

(Mackie Nellthorp, 2001).

D20100893
2010.

113

A 7

, ,
.
. ,
HEATCO
.

().


.
,
.

. ,
(
).
. ,
. (
).

) ( )
.
.
, .

.
, .
( ).

D20100893
2010.

115

//

2008

3.50

0.02

2009

3.65

0.03

2010

3.75

0.05

2011

4.10

0.08

2012

4.30

0.12

2013

4.60

0.15

2014

5.00

0.18

2015

5.30

0.20

2016

5.90

0.22

2017

6.20

0.26

2018

6.80

0.28

2019

7.10

0.31

2020

7.60

0.36

2021

7.80

0.40

2022

8.30

0.50

2023

8.90

0.60

2024

9.40

0.70

2025

10.00

0.80

2026

11.00

0.90

2027

12.00

1.00

2028

13.00

1.00

2029

15.00

1.20

2030

17.00

1.40

116

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2010.

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D20100893
2010.

117


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2007

243,665

32,532

2,464

73,120

2008

259,559

34,654

2,625

77,890

2009

276,491

36,915

2,796

82,971

2010

295,916

39,508

2,992

88,800

2011

316,707

42,284

3,203

95,039

2012

337,366

45,042

3,412

101,239

2013

357,484

47,728

3,615

107,276

2014

377,006

50,335

3,812

113,134

2015

397,595

53,083

4,021

119,312

2016

419,307

55,982

4,240

125,828

2017

442,206

59,039

4,472

132,700

2018

465,974

62,213

4,712

139,832

2019

491,019

65,557

4,965

147,348

2020

517,410

69,080

5,232

155,267

2021

540,028

72,100

5,461

162,054

2022

563,634

75,251

5,700

169,138

2023

588,117

78,520

5,947

176,485

2024

613,664

81,931

6,206

184,152

2025

640,321

85,490

6,475

192,151

2026

668,135

89,204

6,757

200,498

2027

697,158

93,078

7,050

209,207

2028

727,128

97,080

7,353

218,201

2029

758,386

101,253

7,669

227,581

2030

790,988

105,606

7,999

237,364

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2010.

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D20100893
2010.

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G2G

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Dragan Miloji, B.Sc (TE), M.Sc

, ..

Public

Enterprise Roads of Serbia

(PERS), Sector for Strategy, Design

and Development,

(), ,

Head of Strategic Planning, Studies

and Development Dept,

(WG Coordinator)

, ,
( )

Gordana Lazarevi, B.Oecc.

, ..

Ministry of Finance, Government of the

Republic of Serbia, Assistant Minister

Sector for Programming, Management


of

EU

funds

and

Development

Assistance

Duan amagi, B.Sc (CE)

, ...

Ministry of Infrastructure, Government

of the Republic of Serbia,

Head of Road Department

Ivana Kosti, M.C.E.

, , ...

Public

Enterprise Roads of Serbia

(PERS), Sector for Strategy, Design

(),

and Development -

Strategic

Planning,

Studies

and

Development Dept.

, ,

Chief Engineer for Strategic Planning

Marko Mladenovi, M.T.E.,


Highway

Institute,

Department

, .. .
for

..,

Traffic and Economy

Leading Engineer I

Tamara uri, M.T.E.,

, .. .

Public

Enterprise Roads of Serbia

(PERS), Sector for Strategy, Design


and Development Traffic Safety Department
Road Safety Engineer

(),
,
-

Aleksandra Brankovi, B.Phil.


Public

Enterprise Roads of Serbia

(PERS), Sector for Legal, Staff and


D20100893
2010.

,
.

123

Common Affairs

(), ,

Translator

Vesna Kaplarevic, B.Oecc.

, ..

Public

Enterprise Roads of Serbia

(),

associate

for

planning

and

and commercial affairs,


development

(PERS), Sector for economic-financial


Senior

Geert Smit
NEA Transport research and training
Director New Business Development

10

Arnaud Burgess
NEA Transport research and training
Senior Consultant

11

Rob de Leeuw van Weenen


NEA Transport research and training
Senior Consultant

12

Nina Nesterova
NEA Transport research and training
Consultant

12

Bas Scholten
Ecorys
Senior Consultant

13

Gerbrand van Bork


Ecorys
Senior Consultant

14

Michiel Modiefski
Ecorys
Senior Consultant

15

Elizabeth van Groll


NEA Transport research and training
Editor CBA Manual
Coordinator Study Tours

124

D20100893
2010.

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HEATCO

Developing

Harmonised

European

Approaches

for

Transport

Costing and Project Assessment, Deliverable 5 Proposal for Harmonised


Guidelines, 2006

HEATCO

, . 5,
, 2006.

European Commission - DG Regional Policy, Guidance on the Methodology for


Carrying Out Cost-Benefit Analysis, Working Document No. 4, 2006.

European Commission - Technical Assistance for the Elaboration of the


General Transport Master Plan Romania, Transport Sector Evaluation and
Prioritisation Method Working Paper, 2008

The World Bank - Transport Notes, A Framework for the Economic Evaluation
of Transport Projects, 2005

Evaluation Unit DG Regional Policy European Commission (Structural Fund


ERDF, Cohesion Fund and ISPA) - Guide to Cost Benefit Analysis of
Investment Projects.

DG
( ERDF, ISPA) -

Deliverable 1: IASON Project Assessment Baseline Version 1.0 IASON, Mackie


PJ, Nellthorp J, Kiel J, Schade W, Nokkala M (2001) with contributions from
partners Contract: GRD1/2000/25351 S12.316053 Project Coordinator: TNO
Inro, Delft, Netherlands. Funded by the European Commission 5th Framework
Transport RTD

JASPERS, CBA Guidelines for Transport Sector - Bulgaria, June 2008

Ministry of Transport Romania, Transport Sector Project Evaluation And


Prioritisation Method Working Paper (2008)

,
, Italferr, NEA, Witteveen +
Bos, IIPP, , 2009.


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