Module 4A - Thinking in Two Markets - VN

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Phng nga ri ro vi cc Cng c Ti chnh

S dng cc S giao dch C ph Vic hiu r nhng s khc bit gia cc th trng ti chnh v th trng hng ha thc l rt quan trng:
Khc bit
Th trng a phng/ Th trng C ph thc Th trng Ton cu/ Th trngTi chnh

a im Hot ng a im giao hng iu kin c s giao hng n v o lng

Tegucigalpa, Honduras Mua & Bn c ph thc Cng

S giao dch Qun l Gi & Ri ro Trao i n cc kho c cp php CIF*

FOB

Quintales

Lbs/pound

* Gi tng lai l gi giao n kho c cp php c ngha l c ph c cho l c giao t im i v n cng n v giao vo kho c cp php. Do dng CIF trong iu kin giao hng.

S giao dch C ph
T duy trn hai th trng
Th trng hng thc
Ngi SX Ngi SX Ngi SX Ngi SX Ngi SX Ngi SX Ngi SX

Cc th trng Ti chnh

Hp tc hoc Thng li hoc nh Xut khu

Nh Nhp khu hoc Rang xay

Mt t giao dch hng thc

Phn ln giao dch L Hp ng giy

Phng nga ri ro bng Hedging


CHNH LCH C BN/BASIS

Chnh lch c bn (Basis) l s khc bit gia gi c ph trn th trng tng lai v gi c ph thc trn th trng ni a. Ri ro c bn gia tng khi tng quan gia gi ni a v quc t thay i theo thi gian. Chnh lch c bn phn nh cht lng ca c ph ni a so snh vi c ph lm c s tnh gi trn th trng th gii (chnh lch cht lng) s chnh lch ny thay i theo tng khu vc v quc gia. Chnh lch c bn cng phn nh mt lot cc im khc bit gia c ph thc v c ph quy trong hp ng tng lai. V d: gi ca hp ng tng lai thng bao gi cng cao hn gi c ph thc ni a v gi bao gm cc vn chuyn v chi ph giao n kho.

Phng nga ri ro bng Hedging


CHNH LCH C BN/BASIS

Chnh lch c bn c tnh thi v, v c th gin ra hay co li vo cc thi im khc nhau trong v c ph. Trong mt s trng hp c bit, v th th trng thng thng c th b o ngc, v d trong nhng thi im thiu ht c ph ngn hn trn th trng ni a. Khi c tng quan yu gia hai th trng (khi gi c ph trn th trng ni a v gi trn th trng quc t i theo cc hng khc nhau theo thi gian) th phng nga ri ro bng hedging gi quc t km hiu qu hn.

Chnh Hedginglch c bn (hay ri ro khc bit)


Gi quc t v gi ni a khng phi lun ln xung cng nhau theo tng quan 1:1 Cng c ti chnh gip bo v chng li s tt gim (hoc tng) gi trn th trng quc t. Cng c ti chnh (tng lai hoc quyn chn) khng gip bo vc trc s thay i trong chnh lc c bn, tc l nhng thay i gi trn th trng ni a khng lin quan n gi trn th trng quc t.

Phng nga ri ro bng Hedging


CHNH LCH C BN Biu di y cho thy iu g v chnh lch c bn gia gi c ph Columbia v gi c ph th gii?

C
B

Hedging bng cc cng c ti chnh


(cng c tng lai/futures v quyn chn/options) S dng S giao dch hng ha C ph

Khi khng th thc hin thng v gip lng cho c ph thc th ngi kinh doanh c ph s quay sang S giao dch C ph s dng cc cng c ti kinh doanh nh vi mt i tc Ti chnh cho n khi no tm c i tc Thc cho thng v ca mnh Th trng c ph thc v th trng ti chnh l cc th trng hon ton khc nhau:
Th trng ti chnh cho ta mt sn giao dch xc nh gi v qun l ri ro v gi. Th trng c ph thc l ni hng ha c chuyn giao thc t t ngi ny sang ngi kia theo mt qu trnh bun bn thc.

tng Phng nga ri ro bng Hedging


Phn ln cc doanh nghip kinh doanh c ph ch yu da vo hot ng mua bn thc qun l ri ro v gi v kinh doanh hng thc l hot ng kinh doanh ch cht ca h. Khi kinh doah thc khng iu kin qun l hiu qu ri ro v gi , cc doanh nghip ngnh c ph nn cn nhc s dng cc chin lc ti chnh (futures & options). Trong mi trng hp, chin lc thc hin cn c xem xt v iu chnh thng xuyn. Chin lc ph hp (v vic la chn chin lc) thay i ty theo tng doanh nghip. Mc tiu ca HEDGING L GiM THIU bt nh v Gi v TC NG ca cc xu hng gi tiu cc

tng Phng nga ri ro bng Hedging


Hedging l vic thc hin cc v th (mua/bn) trn th trng ti chnh cn bng v ngc li vi v th angthc hin trn th trng c ph thc, vi mc ch gim thiu tc nh bt li ca bin ng gi c ph ln gi tr hng thc ca bn. Chnh lch v thi gian - gia khi mua v bn cng c th phng nga ri ro bng hedging. Hedging l phng php b sung cho vic s dng cng c thc qun l ri ro v gi. Hedging khng m bo li nhun, m ch l phng tin cht gi ti mt thi im nht nh. Hiu qu ca hedging ph thuc vo gi tr ri ro chnh lch c bn, gi tr ri ro ca v th mua bn thc v hiu qu ca chng trnh qun l ri ro mi nh kinh doanh p dng
CN TRNG

TRONG KH NNG CHU RI RO


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Hedging v u c
Hedging khng phi l u c. u c bng hp ng tng lai (futures) l vic thc hin cc hp ng tng lai m khng c v th mua/bn tng ng trn th trng c ph thc. Hedging l vic thc hin cc v th gip gim thiu mc ri ro v gi m ngi kinh doanh c ph phi ginh chu. Ngi kinh doanh c ph, ngay t u, khng nn u c bng hp ng tng lai v: u c bng hp ng tng lai lm tng ri ro m khng tng t l li nhun d kin. Ngi kinh doanh thc hin Hedging c th hy vng v th tng lai s lm gim ri ro, nhng khng nn ch i li nhun u n t cc giao dch H tng lai.

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